Nuvation Bio Inc. (NUVB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 11, 2026

NYSE US Health Care Pharmaceuticals conference_presentation 26 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#1

Welcome to Day 2 of the Citizens Life Science Conferences. My name is Silvan Tuerkcan, and I cover Precision Medicines at Citizens, and it's a pleasure to have everybody here. And now I'll be hosting Nuvation. David Hung, Co-Founder and President, thank you so much for joining us; and Philippe Sauvage, CFO.

David Hung

executive
#2

Thank you.

Philippe Sauvage

executive
#3

Thank you.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#4

Maybe to kick it off, recently the earnings, if you could just talk to us about the IBTROZI launch, how that's going and some of the dynamics that you've discussed.

David Hung

executive
#5

Yes. I think the IBTROZI launch has gone very well. We have 2 full quarters so far. In the first 2 quarters, we had 432 patients, a little over 200 a quarter, which is about 6x what we saw in the first 2 quarters of the AUGTYRO launch. And by the way, our 2 quarters with all other ROS1 TKIs combined, we have exceeded that by a significant margin. So we're pretty pleased with that. We have seen lines, all lines of therapy prescribed, even though the majority of our prescriptions still are in later lines because this is typical of oncology launches, but we have seen first-line use and we've seen that growing. So we are excited about that. And I think that we've had sales in every sales territory. Our 47 sales reps in the field have all had success in all the geographies. So we think the launch is going pretty much as we had hoped.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#6

Maybe talk about these lines of therapy. And I think it's -- obviously, there was some volatility around the earnings call, and I think there's a lot of eyes on it. But in my mind, it is because of the duration of therapy is so long in the front line and obviously, then decays. And so that kind of maybe threw people a curveball. So if you could just discuss like what the dynamics there are and how you penetrate into early lines? And maybe if you can point to some examples from other launches where is this very typical to start in.

David Hung

executive
#7

Right. So if you look at the duration of therapy by different lines of therapy, it exponentially decreases with later lines. So if you look at our progression-free survival in the first-line setting, we're talking about 46 months or longer. If you look at second-line setting, that drops by 1/4 -- by down to 1/4 of that. And if you look at probably third-line plus, you're talking about probably 1/4 of that. So I think that what you generally see in oncology launches is later line patients because, number one, they are already identified because they've all been on previous TKIs and already have a ROS1 diagnosis, whereas incidence patients have to be diagnosed new. And so it's a slower process. So the prevalence pool is the easiest pool to address, but they tend to be experienced and have shorter durations of therapy. If you look at the kind of patients we're getting, we don't have complete visibility into that yet because unless the patients seek reimbursement assistance and unless they come through our portal called NuvationConnect for that, we don't really know anything about their profile. And because we've had actually relatively few reimbursement challenges, so not that many patients have come through our portal for reimbursement assistance, out of the 432 patients that we have treated so far, the number of patients who have come through our portal looking for assistance is only into the double digits. So the only glimpse into the lines of therapy that we see are from those double-digit numbers of patients. That's such a small fraction of our 430-plus patients that it's hard for us to make a guess at this point that we're confident in as to what the lines of therapy will be. We've said that the majority of them are still third-line -- second, third-line plus, but we do have first-line patients, and we do expect that to change virtually monthly. And we are already seeing some decrease in third-line plus. We're seeing some increase in first-line. But we have said that 75-plus percent of our discontinuations are third-line plus patients, as you would expect. As I said, the duration of therapy drops off exponentially with later lines.

Philippe Sauvage

executive
#8

So to your point, Silvan, when you're asking about benchmark, this is really typical, right? You start with patients in late line in oncology and you gradually get to first-line. And what's really encouraging is every data, like David said, points to the same direction. We're getting more of these first-line patients. We don't see any emerging adverse events, which is outside of what we saw in clinical trial. We see the kind of duration on therapy of all those lines that were to be expected. So exactly as expected.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#9

Yes. And I guess with your long duration of therapy, it makes a real big difference like KRAS inhibitors. If you go from 4 months to 6 months, it's not that big of an effect. And then just to clarify, and we got this question from a few investors is about the discontinuation. So the discontinuation is due to progression, right, in the late-line patients?

David Hung

executive
#10

Pretty much.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#11

And the discontinuation rate due to side effects, is that in line with what you've seen in the study?

David Hung

executive
#12

So we haven't seen any discontinuations due to something that was unexpected. We think that our -- and again, we're looking at a relatively small portal of patients. But from what we've seen, everything seems to be in line with our clinical trials. And we actually view the fact that 75% of our discontinuations being third-line plus to be a very positive thing because it confirms that our earlier line patients are actually lasting a long time on drug. So I think that, as Philippe said, no surprises, which is always a good thing because you always want to make sure that your real-world data are similar to your clinical trial data, and we have every reason to believe that it is.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#13

And then as of when I put these questions together, I think the consensus was just shy of $150 million. How do you view that estimate for this year for your first full year of sales?

David Hung

executive
#14

Yes, I think we're comfortable with that. We have said that the -- it won't be a linear road to that $150 million, but I think that we are seeing the kind of growth that we expect, and we do see an increase in first-line. So revenue stacking will become more important in the second half of the year, and we think that we feel pretty comfortable with that consensus number.

Philippe Sauvage

executive
#15

Yes. A way to think about it, Silvan, for your model is that those first-line patients, these numbers is growing quarter-on-quarter. Of course, at the beginning, we had those late-line patients, which are going down. So the total seems flat, but actually, the dynamic of the first-line patients is really going up. And of course, the accumulation of a line is a curve, right? And so it's going to be more at the later part of the year that we'll have those sales as we have more and more first-line patients stay on the drug.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#16

And often, as it happens with launches, can you just talk a little bit about the gross to net dynamics? Are they -- were you giving away a lot of free drug in the beginning or not? And how can we think about that?

Philippe Sauvage

executive
#17

So of course, like all pharma companies, we are trying to be responsible citizens. So there are multiple ways to get access to IBTROZI. The STAR program, which you referred to free drug has been very, very limited, which is, I think, a testament to how good we have been in terms of reimbursement. Typically at most a couple of weeks, I don't think we have any patients that has been on the samples for more than a month. So really, really good there. We do have a PAP program for patients that are functionally uninsured or don't have any reimbursement. It's also very typical. But beyond that, it's just typical negotiation. It's a space with multiple drugs. So we had to negotiate with some payers, very important for us to have access. And that's why our gross to net has been increasing a little bit. We said that in the fourth quarter, we were a little bit above 25%, and we still expect it to increase a little bit and then stabilize.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#18

Great. And maybe about the one number that stuck out is that you mentioned on the earnings report that your growth was 6x or your on-ramp 6x the patient numbers than the other, I don't know if it was all ROS1 combined or one of them. But can you just talk about that on-ramp in terms of patient -- like does that point to an expansion of the ROS1 opportunity? Or is it just very fast penetration into the existing share?

David Hung

executive
#19

I mean I think that -- so we were talking about the actual number of new patient starts. If you look at AUGTYRO's first 2 quarters, they are doing 30-something patients per quarter. We did about 200. So we do think that we have a pretty rapid adoption of our drug. But we do think that good drugs expand markets. And if you look at what happened with osimertinib, you look at what happened with alectinib in lung cancer, we know that drugs that actually work do expand markets. We would anticipate the same thing in ROS1. But also there's a lot of upside in terms of ROS1 testing. It's still not where it needs to be. Academic testing is probably close to 100%, but community testing is definitely south of that. But because of the precedent set by EGFR in ALK, RET and now ROS1, I think that testing will increase. So I think the market will increase. The other change in the dynamics of the market is that current DNA testing would predict 3,000 patients a year. But RNA testing is now becoming standard of care and certainly many academic centers are hopefully in the community soon. And RNA testing is about 30% more sensitive than DNA testing. So the market will grow about 30% if we just move from DNA to RNA testing.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#20

And then the NCCN guidelines, obviously, they changed early in the year with respect to ROS1 what you do once you find out and you are supposed to switch a patient of the IO and replace treatment with ROS1. Do you experience that already or this early in the launch? Any more tangible data that you're collecting on this?

David Hung

executive
#21

Yes. So the NCCN guidelines changed on January 7 of last year, so it's about a year ago. So now IO is contraindicated and because of that contraindication and now the recommendation to use a ROS1 agent, that alone should grow the ROS1 market as well because a lot of those other patients used to just take IO. And by the time they got -- if they ever got to a ROS1 agent, they were much farther advanced and probably did not do as well. So I think that, that's going to increase ROS1 TKI use. And physician behaviors never immediately change, but I do think that we're already seeing some changes in practice based on those NCCN guidelines. And we would expect that to accelerate, especially when a drug like IBTROZI has the kind of efficacy profile and tolerability profile that we have. We think that there's a really good reason now to use a drug, not only because NCCN contraindicates IO and recommends ROS1 TKIs, but because now we have a ROS1 TKI with literally unprecedented duration of response and a tolerability profile that makes it really easy to use.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#22

Right. And can you talk a little bit about your maybe commercial capabilities at this point? Is it the sales force? Is it rightsized at this point? And what are kind of the next focus point for the sales force in terms of getting in new hospitals or convincing some doctors that are not prescribing yet or just staying on top of the ones that are already prescribing?

David Hung

executive
#23

Sure. So we look at where the ROS1 patients are. We believe that about 25% to 30% will be in academic centers and about 65% to 70% will be in the community. Right now, where we're finding our patients is the reverse of that. So we're finding most of our patients right now in academic centers because they tend to be early adopters and community takes a little longer. But what our sales force has been focused on is now trying to reverse that. And we're already seeing movement now towards increasing community use where the majority of patients are. It just takes a little bit longer in the community. We think the sales force is rightsized. We have 47 reps. But because of the way that community oncology is structured out, the vast majority of community practice, you don't really see mom-and-pop practices anymore like decades ago, but they're now aggregated into large community systems like OneOncology or Florida Cancer or U.S. Oncology. And because of that, it's a lot more efficient to reach those patients because now we go to these centers and we familiarize them with IBTROZI, and we can reach a lot more physicians with more efficiency than previously. So I think we aim to see the patients come from academic and community sources in accordance with their epidemiological split.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#24

Great. And maybe for those not as familiar with your asset, could you just like review let's say, the label and the benefits it brings to the ROS1 indication with respect to the other TKIs that are out there?

David Hung

executive
#25

Yes. So if you look at first-generation TKIs and ROS1, the PFS for entrectinib is16 months. For crizotinib, it's 19 months. The response rate for both those drugs is between 68% and 72%, so average of 70%. If you look at repotrectinib or AUGTYRO, the response rate is up to 79% and the PFS in the first-line is 36 months. But if you now look at IBTROZI, our overall response rate is now 89% with a PFS in the JCO publication of a year ago, which is still maturing at 46 months. So pretty clear that the benefits that we're seeing are substantial. In fact, there are actually no oncology drugs in any cancer that have shown a combined response rate and PFS as long as IBTROZI. So we think that's a pretty unique profile. And we're going to keep updating that label. We recently updated it last year, at the end of the year, showing now that duration of response has now moved up to 50 months, which now puts it among the very, very elite. Only LORBRENA or lorlatinib with a PFS of 60 months exceeds that. But we -- our data is still maturing. So we expect that to even -- that could even change further. But we are already in a very rarefied atmosphere in terms of our responses and durability of response. So we think that's pretty competitive. Also very importantly, if you look at our intracranial response rates, they're also very high, and that's important because ROS1 lung cancer is a disease that's going to get to your brain at least 86% of the time, 36% of the time, it starts in your brain at diagnosis, and then another 50% progressed in the brain as the first site of disease progression. So you need to have good central nervous system coverage. And if you look at our -- even in the second-line setting, if you look at our intracranial response rate of 66%, that's so far the highest seen of any ROS1 TKI. So we feel that the profile is pretty robust.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#26

Yes. What's the kind of the impact or what could be the dynamics with generic crizotinib and entrectinib, like how would that...

David Hung

executive
#27

Crizotinib doesn't get to the brain at all. So it's -- even though it used to be used in ROS1, it's actually not medically appropriate today. I guess if 86% of the time, you're going to get a brain met, to use a drug that doesn't even get in the brain, it's just not good medical practice. So we think crizotinib is a drug that should no longer be used in ROS1 disease because if you give it, you're just taking a gamble with whether or not you're going to get CNS coverage. And 86% of the time, you're going to lose because it's going to get to the brain. So I think that if you look at ROS1 treatments for ROS1 lung cancer, I think you need to pick drugs that have really durable responses because that means, by definition, you are working well against resistance mutations, and you need to use drugs that get to the brain that have high brain activity because that means that you're actually addressing the single biggest determinant of long-term survival, which is the development of brain mets.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#28

And then I know you had some liver monitoring in the very beginning. Does that come up as any issue stopping uptake or?

David Hung

executive
#29

Not at all. So LFT elevation is a paper issue and most patients don't even know they have it because they're not symptomatic. If you look at our 6 most common adverse events, LFT elevation were #1 and #2. And in spite of that, despite of being the 2 most common of our 6 most common adverse events out of 337 patients in our database, a number of patients who discontinued IBTROZI due to either elevation of AST or ALT was 1 patient. So 1 out of 337 is 0.3%. So that was our discontinuation rate for liver function test elevation, which we think is really the best among the TKIs that you've seen.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#30

And then obviously, there are some eyeballs on Nuvalent who may launch a competitor later in the year in a later line and then maybe next year in earlier line. Can you just talk about how you view the competitiveness here versus potential profile?

David Hung

executive
#31

Sure. So Nuvalent is applying for a second-line plus label. And their launch will be in second-line plus. If you look at the data they presented so far in the second-line setting, their response rate is 51%. But that 51% response rate is caveated by the fact that the ARROS-1 study excluded any secondary oncogenic driver mutation that wasn't ROS1. Our response rate in the second-line is 56%, so about 10% higher than Nuvalent's, but that 56% includes every oncogenic driver. So we made no exclusion. So we would argue that 56% with no exclusions beats 51% with exclusions. If you look at Nuvalent's confirmed response rate in the intracranial response rate in second-line setting, it's 45%. Again, excluding any secondary oncogenic drivers. Our intracranial response rate in second-line, including all drivers was 21 percentage points higher than that at 66%. We think that's pretty significant. If you look at the post entrectinib response rate of Nuvalent's drug, after you fail entrectinib, the response rate is 33%, ours is 80%. So we do think that there is a significant difference between the 2 drugs. We don't see -- we have not seen any metric so far where Nuvalent's drug has been able to match, much less exceed any metric of performance that we've seen. So we think that IBTROZI is a really efficacious drug. As I said, there are no cancer drugs in any indication that have matched our efficacy in the first-line setting. And by the way, we think the prevalence pool of second-line plus patients is probably in the range of 1,000. Well, we're getting 200-plus patients per quarter. By the time Nuvalent launches in the third quarter, we will have probably treated a majority of those patients and then moved upstream to first-line. So we think that we're really well positioned with the way this drug is working.

Philippe Sauvage

executive
#32

And to your point, Silvan. Just reminding everyone one more time. So we'll be launching first-line 2 years after this. That's a lot of time in our industry.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#33

Yes. And you need to bring something better to the table, otherwise hard to penetrate.

Philippe Sauvage

executive
#34

Exactly.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#35

Maybe, can you talk to us about your adjuvant plans? It's a very big population also.

David Hung

executive
#36

Yes. So we are the only ROS1 TKI that's doing adjuvant. So that says several things. Number one, to go to the adjuvant setting where patients are generally asymptomatic, you have to have a drug that's really tolerable. And the fact that we've been encouraged by KOLs to do that, and we have now done it, again, speaks to the tolerability profile of our drug. As I said, if you look at our top 6 adverse events, our discontinuation rate for any of those is 0.3%. So pretty tolerable. So the reason the adjuvant space is important is because now you're talking about the farthest upstream you can go. When osimertinib did their adjuvant study, that led to them getting 100% market share. And we think that we're the only ROS1 TKI that's doing an adjuvant study. So we're -- even if anyone decides to try to get to the adjuvant space, they'll be significantly behind us. So we think that we're going to own that space and subsequently, we'll be the first drug used in the ROS1 lung cancer period.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#37

Right. And maybe switching gears. I have many more questions on this, but it's a very interesting asset, and that's why we picked up coverage in the first place. But you also have safusidenib. If you could just talk about your progress here and with your IDH1 inhibitor.

David Hung

executive
#38

Sure. So safu is a mutant IDH1 inhibitor. There's only one mutant IDH1 inhibitor approved in glioma. It's called vorasidenib or VORANIGO made by Servier. What's been striking about that compound is that in just their last quarter, they generated $258 million in sales in their fourth full quarter, which is remarkable. So that means that they're already on a $1 billion run rate for a drug that's only approved in 1 of the 4 parts of the glioma pie. So I mean divide the glioma pie into high risk -- high grade and low grade, it's about 50-50. But each of those segments can be divided further into high risk, low risk. So there's 4 pieces of that pie. Vorasidenib is only improved in one of those pieces, low risk, low grade. So if you look at vorasidenib's response rate in low risk, low grade, the response rate is 11%. And at 1 year, 23% of their patients had progressed. At 2 years, 41% of their patients had progressed. If you look at safusidenib's response rate and PFS in the same population, the low risk, low grade, instead of 11% response, we had a 44% response rate. Instead of 23% progression at 1 year, we had 4% progression at 1 year. Instead of 41% progression at 2 years, we had 12% progression in 2 years. So when we look at the low risk, low grade part of that pie, we think that safu's data is more robust. But importantly, vorasidenib is not approved in the other 3 pieces of the pie. So high risk, low grade; low risk, high grade; high risk, high grade. And we're doing a study called SIGMA that addresses all the other 3 pieces of that pie. So if that gets approved, we'll be the only drug approved in 3 of the 4 pieces of the pie. We're also doing a second study targeting grade 3 oligodendrogliomas because in that population, they all have measurable disease, but they can't -- because they live so long, in 12 to 14 years on average, they can't take radiation and chemo for those 12 to 14 years, so they need an oral therapy like safu. Because they have measurable disease, that trial was a response rate trial, and we think that potentially, if the response rate is very robust, a drug could be improved based on response rate alone in that population. We cite as precedent OJEMDA's approval in pediatric glioma for Day One in -- based on the response rate trial in 77 patients. So we are kicking off -- we have kicked off a 40-patient trial in the grade 3 oligodendroglioma patients. We will have a readout on that data set next year, but we'll start to see some data this year. If we start to see any response rates that are significantly higher than chemo, which is about 5% response rate, we think that warrants a discussion with the FDA to ask them what number of patients they would want to see to make this an approvable trial. As I said, OJEMDA was approved on 77 patients. So we had to make a wild guess, we think maybe 80 or so. We'll see what the FDA says. It depends on how robust the responses are. But we think there probably is a pathway to approval with response rate if the response rate is robust enough. So we're going to start to think about that toward the end of the year and we start to get our first patient data back.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#39

Great. Well, thank you, David. Thank you, Philippe. Thanks for joining us today.

David Hung

executive
#40

Well, thank you so much. Good to see you.

Silvan Tuerkcan

analyst
#41

Thanks.

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