NuVista Energy Ltd. (NVA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
June 25, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Ivan Condic
executiveWelcome to NuVista Energy's Virtual Investor Day, where members of NuVista's management and senior technical team will provide a presentation focused on the depth and quality of NuVista's asset base and the strategic augmentation of our 5-year outlook, followed by a Q&A session to address any written questions submitted via the team's platform. I am Ivan Condic, Vice President, Finance and CFO. Joining me today in the presentation are Jonathan Wright, CEO; Mike Lawford, President and COO; Chris LeGrow, Vice President, Development and Planning; and Thomas Litchfield, Director Montney development. Thomas directly leads our technical team and has been with us for 6 years. Additionally, the entire leadership team is present for Q&A. Before we begin, we would like to refer you to the advisories located on Slide 2 and at the end of the presentation. These advisories describe the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures and certain oil and gas metrics that will be referenced today. Additionally, the advisories outline the assumptions and risk factors relevant to the information we will be presenting today. I will now turn over the presentation to Jonathan.
Jonathan Wright
executiveThanks, Ivan. That was kind of professional grade, pretty polished.
Ivan Condic
executiveThank you.
Jonathan Wright
executiveAll right. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome. It's a real treat to have you all here today. I appreciate everyone making the time out of your busy days. We're very excited to tell you our story here today in a deeper dive fashion than we ever have time in these investor meetings. I want to put my thanks out to our broader team, including our IT folks and all the folks that worked on this presentation. I'm excited for them to show you. And I say them because it's going to be a lot of our team talking to you today. We want to show you some of that depth. So it is an exciting day. I get to speak to you quite often. But for me, today, the main event is that we have time to deep dive and show you more of our great people, show off our assets and the depth of our high-quality inventory of wells that is there, plus provide you an appreciation of the technical depth of the teams who deliver these results for us every day. We try very hard to look like the duck on the water, where things are moving really smoothly and delivering, but it's actually not how it works. There's a lot going on under the surface, and I'm excited for us to be able to peel that back a bit for you today. Turning to the slides. You can see the numbers here. They mostly speak for themselves, so I will not read them to you. Assets are all right near within 30 to 60 miles drive of the city of Grande Prairie. So we've got all the services in oil and gas service city. And today, we're going to highlight for you as shown on the bullets here, first, our established track record as the largest independent condensate-rich Alberta Montney pure play. That's a mouthful, but we're going to show you how that works. Secondly, the prolific depth and scale of our repeatable and high-value inventory. And thirdly, the runway is set for material growth and shareholder returns. And that's an augmented plan, as Ivan said. So we are indeed approaching 90,000 BOEs per day and with de minimis net debt and now our large scale we can deliver our growth plan while spending only 65% to 80% of adjusted funds flow depending on commodity pricing. This results in significant annual return of capital to shareholders through share buybacks. I'm going to go through a few high-level slides at the beginning and at the end, which highlight our team's significant accomplishments and future plans, but you're going to hear mostly from them. Turning to the next slide. This is the NuVista journey. Let's look at it since 2010. In 2010, we were very much the word uncharted frontier there actually is a real statement. At that time, there were questions whether the high-value condensate could even flow through the tight rock. Could we get our well cost down. The first wells in this area were $13 million, they are half that now. It's been a significant learning in the early days. And we had to do a significant amount of debt and equity and selling of mature assets in order to fund our launch into that. As you move across the right-hand side on this frame here, we're committed to debt reduction. We had to survive through the pandemic. We did that and then with the scale that we had and having grown first, our plan was 30,000 BOEs a day, then it was 60,000, then it was 90,000. And when you start getting to that size, post pandemic, we had recovery of pricing and job #1 was debt reduction. And so we were able to keep growing post-pandemic while reducing debt and I'm going to show you some of those numbers. And as you find us today, we are arriving at 90,000 BOEs per day. We're actually already there on a day rate basis. It's just this quarter, we had some maintenance outages for expansions and tie-ins of new facilities and so on. So that's why the guidance is 80,000 to 83,000 for the quarter. But we're already there. This has been working extremely well. And so as you can see on the far right-hand side, now we've been talking for a long time about adding to our 100,000 BOE per day growth plan. But now, as you know, recently, we have significant new areas and zones that have been proved up, led by the Gold Creek Lower Montney, which we're going to show you, and also the North Gold Creek area in general, which we're going to show you. And more land added a couple of quarters ago in South Gold Creek that to the tune of the same size as our entire Pipestone South property. So what this did and has done is take our 100,000 BOE per day plateau that was planned and it took it well beyond 2 decades. We always say we want to have a 10- or 15-year flat life once we reach a plateau. Originally, we thought that would mean perhaps getting to 110,000, 115,000 BOEs per day. But now we know we've proven we can do a lot more on the back of everything I just summarized. And as a result, we are expanding our plan to 125,000 BOEs per day with a 15-year flat life, and we're going to show you all the details behind that. This is 150% production growth since 2020, since the pandemic, while spinning off during this period through to the end of the growth plan it will be $2.8 billion of free cash flow, net of CapEx, with the pricing assumptions that we're going to show you. Significant numbers, and we're going to give you all the details behind that. So here's some numbers behind that journey. They mostly speak for themselves as well. You can see the production growth just since the pandemic has been 80% since 2021, really, and net debt reduction at the same time because we're spinning off significant free cash flow, we were able to reduce debt by $400 million plus at the same time as shareholder returns already in the tank of $370 million. And of course, that number is going to be significantly higher by year-end of 2024. So if you take the debt reduction and the shareholder returns, you're approaching $1 billion of free cash flow having been spun out at the same time as growing the company 80%. That is the strength and the power of these assets. And of course, as we're going to remind you as we go through the presentation, we don't need any material debt reduction anymore. And so that free cash flow is all available. So I'm going to turn it over now to our President and Chief Operating Officer; Mr. Mike Lawford, and he's going to show us how this all works.
Michael Lawford
executiveThank you, Jonathan. I think just one misspeak there in the bank, not in the tank, the shareholder returns. So yes, thanks. So it wouldn't surprise you that the geologists would say, at the end of the day, our track record and vision for the future all comes back to the quality of the assets. Our entire land position sits within the balance of the condensate-rich Montney Fairway. And since we entered the play more than 10 years ago, our corporate volumes have been weighted to roughly 30% condensate every quarter over that 10-plus year period, character of the geology in this fairway also provides for a very predictable and repeatable outcomes in our development. And that's shown up for many, many years now with how consistently we deliver on what we say we're going to do. The third point and one that will reinforce a number of times throughout the day is that there are at least 2 to 3 benches being codeveloped across our entire land base. So every year, we use out much less real estate than you would in other plays and other areas within the Montney that are not as thick or well-delineated as ours are. I'll make a few comments here on the significance of being so heavily weighted to condensate. As most of you would know, domestic condensate production falls roughly 280,000 barrels a day short to meet oil sands demand. There aren't any indications that we can see that either supply growth or deteriorating demand will change that. So we do expect the pricing will continue to be strong relative to the WTI benchmark. For NuVista specifically, though, our revenue has historically been 2/3 levered to the condensate price. And it's a really important point that's going to show up in a few slides here when we look back historically at our returns during times of volatile gas prices, and as we think forward to the built-in commodity hedge that we have that our mix provides in the future. It's also interesting to note a few stats here that NuVista is the second largest Montney condensate producer in the province. The fifth largest condensate producer in Canada and the last remaining condensate-rich Montney pure-play public co in the area. Our backyard is shown on the map to the right, and it represents over 90% of the province's condensate production. So it's obviously seen a tremendous amount of new wells drilled, a lot -- a tremendous amount of new infrastructure builds and also a significant amount of consolidation over the past few years. So that's a good segue to show up to talk about how our inventory stacks up relative to other plays in the basin. The chart on the left, it might be a little bit hard to read there. There's a lot of data but it's from Peters & Co. and it illustrates the half-cycle payout time for all app to plays in North America, and they've run this at a fairly conservative price deck here at $70 WTI and $3 NYMEX. At the very top of the chart there, you can see highlighted the CAR area, which is actually our billable asset and Pipestone and both of those sitting in the top decile with payouts in the 9-month range. Just below that, what we've added in here is the economics for our Wapiti area with our most recent achievements on the cost side. And you'll see that, that also shows up with a sub-1-year payout. Scroll down a little bit just to the bottom of the top third, you'll see the Wapiti economics with about a 1.2-year payout, and that would be using our historic cost structure [indiscernible]. So it's really great to see what the third-party validation of what we've been saying with respect to our economics internally to date. Chart on the right, arguably is one of the most important charts in this depth when we think about how we can bear corporately. It rolls up all the asset level achievements into really what's happening for us corporately. And what it's meant to show there on the y-axis is the compounded production growth rate in 2022 to 2025, and it's plotted versus the average PDP recycle ratio over the last 3 years. And recycle ratio, as most of you would know, would be your realized netback divided by your TDP F&B. So for NuVista, it shows that we've been growing at 20% per year, spending roughly $10 to find a BOE, that's worth about $30. And if you look back to the slide that Jonathan showed you on the accomplishments since 2020, this shows really exactly how we did it. So now I'll shift gears a little bit to the longevity of the assets. The chart on the left, I'll draw your attention to the growth in our reserve base, particularly that of the proof plus probable volumes shown in gray, where we've grown 13% over the last 2 years. So it's saying that despite the massive growth in our absolute production, we're continuing to backfill our reserves at a rate that's greater than we're consuming them. So when you think of us producing roughly 90,000 BOE per day today, 643 million barrels reflects just under 20 years of reserves. And that shows up again in the top right corner there on the reserve replacement ratio, a 3-year average on a plus probable basis of 210%. Recycle ratio in the bottom there, we talked about in the last page, you'll notice that the 4x is different than the 3.5x. This is based on an operating netback whereas the previous page was based on our [indiscernible]. So next, we'll reinforce the high level of certainty that we have with the multi-bench nature of our development. This is a cross section that runs to our asset base from the North Pipestone up to the right through the 3 blocks in Wapiti. So top to bottom, there's over 200 meters of resource here, which we split into 4 separate branches. In Pipestone in the very first year of development, we proved that all 4 benches were productive and [indiscernible] and high proportion of condensate. We've been actively developing that whole stack with wells in the uppermost part of the D, the batch below that, the C, and then 1 well drilled below the B in the Lower Montney that accesses the resource in both batches. Greater Wapiti area has been developed historically with 2 benches with the exception of Gold Creek, which have been single zone developed until last year when we shifted to 2 zone to include the lower Montney. I won't steal Chris' thunder on that, but it's a big driver in the out years of our 5-year plan and the expansion to 125,000 BOE per day. And to be honest, there are some of the best wells we've ever drilled in Wapiti. So I guess, effectively I stole your thunder there.
Chris LeGrow
executiveThanks, Mike.
Michael Lawford
executiveSo takeaway from this is hopefully that when you think of us drilling roughly 40 wells per year into multiple benches, you should be thinking that 1/2 to 2/3 less of our acreage is consumed on each pad relative to single-zone development, and this year shows up very clearly on this next slide here. And here, we're going to try to bring the whole story of longevity and predictability of our inventory home. These numbers won't be new to you, on the top left there. We talked at length about our 1,500-plus locations for some time now. It's made up of just under 1,200 booked undeveloped locations and the 353 producing wells as of the end of 2023. The 350 wells are what we've used to grow our production over the last 10-plus years, effectively from 0 to 80,000 BOE per day. Those -- that well count for those 350 is shown in the green bar in the chart and the area in which those wells have been developed, which acreage they've consumed is shaded in green on the map on the right. So looking forward, over the next 5 years, where we're drilling roughly 45 wells per year on average, the areas shaded in navy will be consumed. And again, that assumes that we've developed 3 benches in Pipestone and 2 in Wapiti. So over that 5-year period that will take us to our new growth target of 125,000 BOE per day or 50% growth from where we started this year in 2024. And the same goes for the next 5 years after that, once we've plateaued at 125,000 BOE per day, we'll be drilling roughly 35 wells per year and that acreage that would be consumed as shown in the light blue. So those gray areas remaining then would reflect another 760 locations, which is shown in the gray bar on the chart to the right side. And with 35 wells drilled per year then would support another 20 years of the inventory on top of the tan shaded in blue. So we'll take some time to look at each of those assets separately. But first, I wanted to give a bit more detailed lock into Pipestone North specifically, which reflects the biggest growth area for us over the last 5 years. So the map on the left is obviously assuming of the previous map, the green area showing the area that's been developed to date. And then shown on the right, it illustrates that over the past 3 years, we've increased our production by fivefold to 35,000 BOE per day here. We've drilled 8 pads on the block for a total of 70 wells and each of those pads is located right next to the last pad we drilled and in some cases, right next to the pads that our neighbors have been drilling. So the map to the left takes what you saw as a cartoon on the last page and allows you to see the level of -- in the high level of detail, how much resource truly does get packed into such a small area with multi-bench development. It is an incredibly high -- so 2 things to take away from this, I guess, would be that there's an incredibly high level of predictability when we model the productivity of our outcoming pads, not to mention the cost certainty, which Chris is going to talk more about, you get a really good flavor for how 1 to 2 pads per year, which would be drilled in Pipestone North, how many years it's going to take to move across this block due to the multi-bench nature. I believe at this point, I'll turn it over to Chris to give you a bit more insight into the assets themselves.
Chris LeGrow
executiveBeautiful. Thanks, Mike. Appreciate it. Yes. So now that we've covered a bit of what we've accomplished corporately, gone through and reviewed our postal code and Mike walked through the inventory there. I'll take a little bit of a deeper dive into our 2 assets here, which we've broken up as Pipestone and Wapiti. So the flow here will be, we'll look at where each asset is today and where it's headed over the next 5-plus years, the economic potential of each of the areas and recent production and cost trends. And as Mike touched on there, specifically, we'll take a bit of a deeper dive in our Wapiti assets where we've seen a step change in our cost structure and the emergence of the Lower Montney. So not to get too far ahead of things there. The first asset we'll look at here is our Pipestone asset. This is our flagship area that, in aggregate, generates the strongest returns in-house. And as we've shown, generates some of the best returns in the industry. Pipestone, when it's at its plateau rate will reflect about half of our corporate production at -- when we're at about 125,000 barrels a day. And through our extensive multi-zone drilling by us and by our offsetting peers, we have identified over 20-plus years of low-risk, high-return inventory to sustain this asset in the low 60,000 BOE per day range once we reach our plateau. In 2024, we focused on this year, keeping our existing infrastructure full, optimizing our free cash flow. And the next leg of growth in this area will come in early 2025, commensurate with the CSV Albright Gas Plant position commissioning. And this will add about 10,000 barrels a day to the productivity of the area. And once this comes online, this -- one of the unique attributes of this area is that we'll be connected to 5 gas plants. And so this will allow us to optimize our uptime by giving us the ability to swing production between the plants to minimize minor disruptions. Once we're at our plateau production range, this asset will turn off material free cash flow as we've highlighted here, but in the neighborhood of about $450 million per year.
Jonathan Wright
executiveIt's almost like you know that stuff, Chris.
Chris LeGrow
executiveYes. Probably better than my children at this point. So next page, flipping ahead here a little bit. We'll review some of the recent results for the wells in our development in the Pipestone area. And you could see that we're in a liquids transition window as we've highlighted here across our land base. In the northern part of the Pipestone North block, it contains some of the richest reservoir that we have. And it's seeing CGRs in the 200-250 barrels per million range. And as we move south, to the south end of our Pipestone North block, we'll encounter a reservoir that's similar to what we've been drilling and developing in Pipestone South. That's the CGRs or condensate gas ratios there in the 50 barrels per million range. And so from the map, as you could see, we've been actively developing both of these areas over the last 4 years with a different number of wells in each of the liquids window in a given year. And as you could see from the production plots there, you could see our annual programs have averaged about 120,000 barrels of cumulative condensate over the first year and about 1.2 to 1.6 Bcf of gas. So across the board and across our lands, these represent highly economic results. And so if you turn your attention to the table at the bottom of the slide, you could see we continue to achieve 1 to 1.9 -- return of 1.8 to 1.9x the capital we invested is a return to us in the first 12 months of production. And this is even has been achieved in spite of the inflationary pressures that we've seen in the industry over this period. So I guess to wrap this slide up, we're more than happy to develop our highly economic inventory across the fluid maturity windows on this land base. And as in this slide, if you compare the slide that Mike showed, which shows our next 10 years of development in the Pipestone area, you'll see that we do not step out of the rich condensate window over that period.
Jonathan Wright
executiveIn Pipestone North.
Chris LeGrow
executiveIn Pipestone North, yes. You bet. So if we turn our attention to the Wapiti area, which will represent the other half of our corporate production once we reach 125,000 barrels a day, we're most excited about the road ahead for Wapiti asset. And there's significant resource in place in the area and our anchor zones backstop our development plans here. So we've recently showcased the delineation potential of this area with our latest Lower Montney results. And we'll have a number of additional Lower Montney results following up this year through our drilling in Gold Creek and the Elmworth area. In the next few slides, what you'll see here is that we will highlight some of the advancements that we've made over the past year that build upon the robust economics in this field and have commanded the increased production plateau from the asset that you see here growing from 30,000 to over 60,000 barrels per day. This year, we have 2 infrastructure expansion projects on the books for Wapiti, the first, an expansion at the PGI Wapiti plant, which added 2,000 to 3,000 barrels of capacity to this field, has already been completed and is running quite well. Second project, a debottlenecking project at our 8 of 10 Elmworth compressor station is nearing completion, and we expect to see it ramp up over the second half of the year and into 2025. So ultimately, these 2 projects will add about 10,000 barrels a day to the Wapiti field, which will bring it to just over 40,000 barrels a day in 2025. The next 2 expansions that you can see on this plot here will come 2026 and 2028 into existing infrastructure and first will unlock our North Gulf Creek area. And the second will add another tranche to Gold Creek each just shy of about 10,000 barrels a day of production. So once we achieve our production plateau in 2028, of about 62,000 barrels a day, this asset will also spit off a material amount of free cash flow in the neighborhood of about $425 million a year. On this side, similar to the one we showed on Pipestone, we highlight the results of our Wapiti capital program over the last 4 years. As I mentioned, the resource potential here is huge and there's a full range of liquids exposure over our asset base. And so you could see from lean gas in the West to north of 200 barrels a million as we move to the East and Southeast. That said, Wapiti has historically been a bit more of an economically challenged area than Pipestone. It's a bit deeper, offers a few more challenges while drilling through that [indiscernible] zones. And once you're in the Montney, the rock is a little bit more difficult to drill and complete. After coming out of COVID, we are heavily focused on the growth ramp that we had ahead of us in Pipestone. And so most of our attention was up there. But despite this, our Wapiti program still returned an average of 1.2 to 1.5x our capital invested during the first year of production over this period. And over the last year, as we've turned our attention back south of the river here, we've dedicated significant time and resources to building on this foundation of these results. We've shown here and have been exploring ways to continue to drive our economics up and improve our returns to narrow the gap between Wapiti and Pipestone. And so we'll highlight on the next 2 slides, some of the recent advancements that we've made to bolster the returns for this area. So the first example here, we've been talking about for the last few quarters. But so if we highlight on this slide, you'll see the 16 to 30 Lower Montney pad that we've developed in Gold Creek, and we compare it to our Pipestone North average performance to date. As we've been developing all of our pads and Pipestone since coming out of COVID, we've had lower Montney targets on each of the pads and the Lower Montney is present across our entire land base and has significant resource in place. But given the order of magnitude, lower permeability of this rock versus the middle Montney, there are different challenges that we experienced associated with developing this. So after our success in Pipestone and seeing some of the encouraging results from some of our peers developing in the Lower Montney and Wapiti, we drilled our first pad in 2022 and liked what we saw. And then last year, we followed it up with the 16 to 30 Lower Montney pad, which is our first codeveloped middle Montney and Lower Montney pad. So we drilled 3 wells in each bench, and you could see the results to date of our 16 to 30 lower performance for Pipestone, we're outpacing Pipestone by 35% on a cumulative condensate basis to date and 25% on a BOE basis, which is certainly a highly economic outcome. And also shown on this map in the lighter shade of blue there, brighter shade of blue, we have 4 more Lower Montney wells on the come in Wapiti this year. So stay tuned for some more news on that front. So the second example of how we've improved our returns in Wapiti is shown on this slide. And so this is the strides that we've made on the execution front. So on the chart on the top left, you can see our drilling performance as measured by meters drilled per day. The bar on the dark blue on the right shows our Pipestone North drilling performance at about 500 meters a day and Pipestone North is our lowest drilling cost area of corporately. The 2 groups of bars on the left reflects Elmworth and Gold Creek performance. Elmworth is in gray. Gold Creek is in green. Our goal internally has been to drive our Wapiti performance to be in line with our Pipestone benchmark. So for the last couple of years, we've pulled multiple levers to help drive these performance improvements. And we've -- first, we've taken our 2 drilling rigs that have been working for us for the last 5-plus years have been primarily directed at drilling in the Pipestone area. We've moved them now south of the river and they've drilled these pads in tandem in Wapiti. We've applied our learnings with respect to drill bits, found some of our mud motor design and optimized their geo landing targets to help maximize our ROPs and minimize the number of bit trips required while drilling. And from this plot, you could see the performance improvements have not been small. They've been quite impressive. In Gold Creek, we've improved our ROPs by 85% over this period and in Elmworth by 15%. In the bottom left, we present a similar chart for completion performance. On the right, you can see, in the dark blue and Pipestone North, we placed about 300 -- or 3,000 tonnes per day of sand. And with completions, time is literally money. You're burning nearly $1,000 a minute while pumping. And in Wapiti, we've performance -- been focused on driving our improvements here by refining our stage design, tweaking our sand size and pump schedule to help improve our ability to place sand more quickly, more uniformly and without sacrificing production performance. Consistency of people has also been huge on the completion side where we have worked with our current pressure pumping provider for over 5 years and established a strong hand-in-glove working relationship. You can see we've improved our completion performance by 25% in Elmworth and 50% in Wapiti over this -- or in Gold Creek over this period. The overall result of these improvements is shown on the left, and this has resulted in a 5% and 10% cost reduction in our Wapiti type curves, which is certainly narrowing the gaps on costs between Wapiti and Pipestone. As shown throughout this presentation, and again, on this side, we have strong economics across our portfolio. And these cost reductions we just went through, helped narrow the gap in payouts between the 2 areas. In an $80 WTI and $4 NYMEX price environment, our Wapiti payouts are now in the 8- to 9-month range versus Pipestone, which is in the 6-month range. And these are still sub 1 year even if you use a more depressed price deck of $65 and $3. So strong economics in both the high and lower pricing world. These single well economics have driven our past corporate profitability and shareholder returns, and they're the backbone of the 5- and 10-year plan that we're talking about in this deck. I now will turn the presentation over to Thomas Litchfield, who, as Ivan mentioned, is the Director of our Montney development. And we rarely have the opportunity to showcase the robust technical work that drives these economics and performance advancements we just highlighted. And so Thomas here in the next couple of pages, will run through a couple of examples of the recent challenges we've encountered in our development. And he'll exhibit the impressive work that our technical and operational folks have collaborated on to overcome these challenges and deliver the exceptional results that we get to tell you about all the time. Over to you, Thomas.
Thomas Litchfield
executiveThanks, Chris. So as mentioned, we have seen a number of execution and production optimization improvements at NuVista, which we're very proud of, and I'll run through some technical detail [indiscernible] of each. But firstly, I just want to kind of throw a shout out to both the field and technical people that made this happen. It truly is a group effort, and it wouldn't happen without collaboration that we see across our entire company. Although the Montney is regionally continuous and predictable holding in on the subtleties becomes critical for continued improvement at this stage in the play. A lot of the low-hanging fruit at this point has already been picked. And our teams really need to get into some of the technical details to drive advancement. So when it comes to characterizing mechanical rock variability in the Montney, we look at the macro level structural characterization using recently reprocessed 3D seismic. And then we drill down to the stage level detail using drill bit sensor data if and when required. We can then categorize sections of the wellbore by rock type and tailor completion strategies accordingly which has proven to be effective as shown in this slide. So the fear in the model -- in the middle of the slide is the Wabamun Structure Map with qualitative stage-by-stage frac Initiation Efficiency indicators on 3 different pads. So this is an area we've been focusing on for the last several years, and we've been seeing improvements. So it's a good area to show as an example. On the right-hand side of the plot, we have more quantitative diagnostic plots, which show stage-by-stage frac initiation performance variability for these same pads. So the way you want to read this slide, for example, focusing on Pad 1 that's highlighted in the dark blue. You can follow the line that traces over and points at our rate normalized pressure plot, which is a diagnostic plot that we use. And if you look at that plot, you can see quite a bit of variability. And you see a lot of high-side outliers. And each of the dots on this chart represent a single stage on the pad. So if you look over at the pad, you can see the red stages or the red squares would correspond to some of those high-side outliers. And then the yellows would be kind of middle of the pack and the greens would be within those gray bands that you see on that chart, which would be our historical Elmworth average frac initiation metric. So what we notice when we look at the combination of this Wabamun Structure Map and these frac diagnostic indicators, is that as we are closer to these structural features, we see a larger amount of variability, which, as Chris mentioned, presented some challenges, both from placing the sand as well as from a cost perspective. I will say that we did place the majority of our sand on this pad. It's more of a cost thing than a productivity thing for us. And you may be wondering why are we showing a Wabamun Structure Map and not a Montney Structure Map. The structural features are upward continuous to the Montney from the Wabamun and easily mapped with 3D seismic in deeper, higher contrast geologic intervals. So without this, it's difficult to map many of the features within the Montney itself. And this has been serving as a powerful predictive tool for new business execution strategy. So that provides the macro level framing at the next level of granularity we get into when required, when we're close to these features, is to -- for geomechanical observations from drill bit sensor data to extract geomechanical rock property estimates along the lateral to gain further insights into the variability of the rock. This level of granularity has been very helpful in shaping rock specific completions adjustments at the stage level. I will say that while every stage is not treated as unique, we can bin the rock into categories, and we have a recipe, so to speak, for these discrete bins or rock types. So trying to preserve the sanity of our completions engineer. As you can see from the frac initiation charts on the right, as we move from Pad 1 to 2 to 3, Pads 1 and 2 were non-geotailored Pads. But as you move away from the structural feature, you can see that the variability collapses somewhat, but not to where we want it to be. Then looking at Pad 3, where we've employed these geo-tailored designs, you can see that we're right back to where we want things to be. So then the -- these improvements are best visualized with the cumulative frequency distribution plot of time to 100 tonnes of sand placed. This is on the top left, it's the bar chart there. The non-geotailored pads are shown in blue, and you can see a material shift in the mean as we execute Pad 3, which is a geotailored pad. What this ultimately has led to for us is an improvement in execution in the form of predictable and repeatable sand placement, allowing us to move from 9 stages a day on the previous 2 pads to a remarkable 15 stages per day, resulting in a 15% cost reduction. And as Chris highlighted, that just helps get our completion costs or sand placement metrics more in line with our Pipestone assets. While it's important to note that we save time and the amount of water pumped and costs came down. We also maintained productivity, which is huge. So just wanted to highlight that these 2 length normalized cumulative production plots, where you can see the green pad, the Pad 3 is in line with Pads 1 and 2. Moving on and shifting gears a little bit. That was focusing on execution improvements. Now we'll talk a little bit about productivity optimization and Chris has highlighted some of this in the discussion of the Lower Montney. The prize is quite obvious here. There's substantial amount of inventory and resource in the Lower Montney, which presents inventory and NPV expansion opportunity for us. The challenges Chris mentioned is that due to the deepwater depositional environment to the lower Montney to [indiscernible] sizes are much finer and the associated in situ permeabilities in order of magnitude lower than the middle or upper Montney. So what this means is the team needed to find a way to concentrate the frac energy in zone and find ways to maximize near wellbore complexity. The solution that we have found is twofold. The first is to leader zipper fracking with the Lower Montney to prevent unwanted stress shadowing. And the second is to tighten our cluster spacing, while simultaneously holding sand intensity constant which effectively decreases frac half length pipe while creating more fractures. So I've just thrown a few illustrative images on here just to kind of drive the point home. But if you look at the frac sequencing, the first one on the left, the vertical view. If you imagine 3 wellbores being targeted in these 3 zones. First, we would pump stage in the Lower Montney, then we would move up to the Upper Montney pump stage and then move back down to the Middle Montney and keep that cycle going from toe to heal. And then in plan view, this is really a 3-dimensional exercise. So in plan view, while we're doing all that, we're cycling the wells that were zippering the wells to keep the Lower Montney, which is denoted by the blue bars there, 2 to 4 stages ahead of the green bars. And we found this to be very effective. The cluster spacing, or what we call our Gen 1 versus our Gen 2 design. So as mentioned, what we're trying to do is focus our frac energy, keep it near wellbore and keep it from going out of zone. So what we're trying to do here is limit our frac heights and our half lengths and the way we're doing this, is by tightening our plug-to-plug spacing, while keeping 8 clusters per stage and effectively pumping the same amount of total sand on the wellbore with more holes or entry points. So the result is this cumulative production chart on the right, where this is an aggregate average of our Gen 1 versus our Gen 2 design in the Lower Montney, and we've seen a productivity uplift of 30%, fairly consistently. So with that, I will hand it back over to Mike, who will go into a bit more detail on the assets.
Michael Lawford
executiveThanks, Thomas. Yes. So like Chris did an absolutely tremendous job just going through at the asset level, but maybe just to wrap it up for a few seconds on each of the individual blocks could leave you with some sound bites. We'll start with the Bilbo and down in the Southwest end of our acreage. This is definitely the most mature and lowest decline asset in the portfolio. It also carries the highest liquids percentage of all the blocks. Because of the low decline here, we're going to drill at most 4 wells per year, fewer of some of the exciting optimization projects that we're working on for the base production continue to gain some legs. We will hold production here roughly flat at 11,000 BOE per day, and that is the absolute perfect fit for the remaining inventory. You can see that the areas being developed over the next 10 years are shaded in the dark blue and light blue that you'd be familiar with now. and our inventory over the next 10 years does not rely on any infill activity just as a point. So the takeaway from this is that Bilbo is generating a big portion of our free cash flow today and requires very little capital investment to -- on a go-forward basis. Elmworth is the second oldest asset in our portfolio. We've recently completed, as Chris mentioned, infrastructure expansions that will see our productive capacity grow by 30% up to just over 20,000 BOE per day into 2025. This area definitely is the lowest liquids proportion in our portfolio, but definitely would carry some of the best capital efficiencies. As Chris mentioned, new records on the cost side are really driving and improving the areas of relative positioning in the portfolio similar to what we're seeing in Gold Creek. And then Gold Creek, everything seems to be coming up roses for Gold Creek lately, new record well costs on par with Pipestone, Lower Montney success underpinning our infrastructure expansion there, higher condensate percentages in the Lower Montney is improving the overall area of returns in Gold Creek. We've recently increased again, as Chris mentioned, our land position in Gold Creek South by 15 sections, and the delineation success that we're having in Gold Creek North coupled with the expansion in their line position of Gold Creek South, this really is forming the basis for a big chunk of the 5-year outlook being expanded to 125,000 BOE per day. And then Pipestone, Chris did actually go through all the points I was planning to make here, but think of this ...
Chris LeGrow
executiveSteal your thunder...
Michael Lawford
executiveBut yes, like just think of this as, again, it's half the company is showing the best economics, deep inventory is incredibly well delineated when you take our activity and our competitor activity offsetting. The point that Chris made about being duly connected to 5 plants is going to be very, very important when you think of the run time going forward. And we're really excited about the timing of the expansion with the CSV plant. We have it currently scheduled for happening at the end of Q1 of next year, and we're closely watching how that's progressing. So for bringing it all home and back together, I'll turn it back to Jonathan and Ivan.
Jonathan Wright
executivePerfect. Thanks, Mike. So yes, I do get to bring the summary back home here now. And as you can see, what I'm doing is confirming what I said at the beginning of the presentation here. When you take everything you've heard today and you add it up, we're not going to change our growth pace. We're going to keep doing what we've been doing. And as we said before, we only need to spend about 2/3 of cash flow in order to execute it. And so we have this significant growth and significant return of cash to shareholders at the same time, which Ivan is going to go through. So yes, I'm here to confirm that we have now officially increased our growth plan to 125,000 BOEs per day. This is locked and loaded in the same way we've always talked about our prior plans. This means we are Board approved. We have all the pillars for growth in place. The inventory is derisked, the pipeline contracts are signed. The facilities are ordered. And as you can see, the team has been in place for some time. So with the high-value economics, as I mentioned there, there's going to be a significant amount of share buybacks happening over this period, and I don't want to steal Ivan's thunder, so I'll leave that to him. But if we haven't convinced you enough yet that we can easily do this and then we already have a significant proven track record of doing so, then here's how this same plan looks like on a 20-year frame. The only flat spot in there is the pandemic where we shut down spending entirely. So we've been doing it. We're going to keep doing it. It's exciting. Our team is very excited about continuing to deliver on this high-value plan. And let's have a look at the summed up corporate economics that come from that. Ivan?
Ivan Condic
executiveThanks, Jonathan. So yes, I guess here we are in terms of, well, tie it all together, show me the money. This slide here shows our return on average capital employed includes post-pandemic from 2021 to 2023. And in the outlook years, the key highlight is that they're all showing healthy returns in the 15% to 25% range. The returns stem from competitive corporate netbacks and strong recycle ratios as previously mentioned, which is underpinned by our condensate rating. While condensate makes up about 1/3 of our production volumes, it generates about 2/3 of revenues and cash flows. And that ties into the next slide here in terms of these returns translate into a significant free adjusted funds flow profile, as shown $2.8 billion in the 2021 to 2028 period. This, again, highlighting the profitability of the business with adjusted funds flow, fully funding our capital expenditure program and resulting production growth, while still generating significant free adjusted funds flow available to fund meaningful share buybacks. Our return of capital to shareholders framework that was introduced 2 years ago has resulted in us buying back about 13% of our outstanding shares. Our current framework is allocating 75% of free adjusted funds flow to share buybacks for the other 25% of free adjusted funds flow, we have flexibility to allocate towards any combination of tuck-in acquisitions, potential M&A, continued temporary net debt reduction or increasing share buybacks to 100% of free adjusted funds flow. Another point would be the -- with our low net debt levels coupled with our 3-year covenant-based financial facility and presence in the terminal market, NuVista is in a solid financial position with significant financial flexibility. I will now turn it over to Jonathan for closing comments.
Jonathan Wright
executiveThanks, Ivan. So that's $2.8 billion in free adjusted funds flow, and that happens to be about equal to our market cap, a big number. You might wonder -- so these are run, you can see in the fine print, this is run at $80 West Texas and $4 NYMEX. If you happen to run that, Chris keep me straight here at $70 West Texas and $3.50 NYMEX, it's still $2 billion. So these are material numbers with a lot of resilience to the inevitable ups and downs of commodity pricing. Okay. So I'm going to sum it up and we're going to be very soon heading into our Q&A here. Just do a quick time check. Yes, we're good for time. So I just want to go to this final slide summing up, I just want to say, ladies and gentlemen, I have never in my career seen such a high-value scenario with such low risk and long-term deep repeatability. We are on a reliable path for 150% production growth since 2021 alone. And as Ivan noted, while spinning off $2.8 billion of free cash flow net of CapEx, this is the power of the economics of the play that we are fortunate to have. I hope today that we've been able to demonstrate the excitement and conviction that we have in our company, in our people and in our play, deep and high-value inventory measured in decades, highly repeatable pure-play Montney easy for me to say, highly repeatable pure-play in Montney track record has been established for almost 15 years for all [indiscernible] and runway to 125,000 BOEs per day, which is locked and loaded, contract signed, equipment ordered. High-quality and committed technical team, de minimis debt and only spending 65% to 80% of adjusted funds flow to do all this. So it's high-value growth with significant annual return of capital to shareholders at the same time. Ladies and gentlemen, that's the end of our presentation today, and we look forward to answering your questions, should you have any. And so I would encourage you, I think the way we're doing this, Logan, is typing questions into the Q&A section, right? Okay. So -- and we can get those on screen.
Ivan Condic
executiveLet's just pause for one minute as we go through the -- any questions that are posted.
Jonathan Wright
executiveYes. We're just -- just for those that are listening, we're just flipping over some screens here so we can actually see your questions now. Okay. All right. So one question. Maybe I'll flip this to Mike or Chris. Gold Creek has been getting a lot of attention lately. We have some super high condensate wells in the South. We've had some good success across other parts of Gold Creek with the Lower Montney. Can you talk a little bit about the variation of results and condensate and how we think about that?
Michael Lawford
executiveYes, for sure. So the -- what you're referring to would be the results from that 16 to 30 Pad that Chris talked about, which is on the eastern side of our block. That was 3 Lower Montney wells co-developed with 3 Bs that had an initial CGR over its first 3 months production of 170 barrels per million. And if you remember the contours that Chris showed you on that map, we would expect as we move to the west to see it move closer towards the condensate window out of the volatile oil window and we saw exactly that in our original first 2 pilot wells, which were in the 100-barrel per million range. But what we're seeing consistently is that the Lower Montney is averaging up the condensate proportion as it's codeveloped with the B.
Jonathan Wright
executiveGreat. Thanks. Okay. There's a question here, which I'll flip to Kevin, our VP of Marketing, he is here, Kevin Asman. How will you plan to market your growing natural gas volumes over the coming years?
Kevin Asman
executiveYes, we'll probably just continue doing what we've always done, which is try to diversify ourselves away from AECO. Obviously, we've taken out a lot of the Nova required for this growth that we've got put in. We do have some new markets starting in a couple of years, got a little bit of gas going to Ventura. We've also got a bit more of alliance that we acquired kind of shortly out of the pandemic that starts in 2026. And then we do long-term AECO NYMEX basis hedges going out 7, 8 years just to mitigate that risk of AECO. And then I guess the last thing would be, we're part of the Rockies LNG consortium, which that [indiscernible] continues to make advances. We'll see if it goes ahead or not, but we're hopeful that it will. And that would be sort of targeted in the '29 to 2030 range if it does proceed.
Jonathan Wright
executiveGreat. Thanks, Kevin. Next question is, can you clarify the incremental infrastructure needed to support the higher production plateau and how do full cycle returns compare to the half cycle returns you've cited? I'll take the first half of that one, and then I'll flip the other one to Chris or Mike here. So in terms of the infrastructure, yes, as shown on the maps that we did go through there, ongoing right now is the CSV new plant that's being built at the north end of Pipestone North and the Elmworth expansion, which we're doing at our Elmworth compressor station, which is approaching completion now and ramping up through the second half of the year. Now going beyond that, it's really primarily about Gold Creek expansion. There is a new Gold Creek compressor station at the north end that we're going to have to build and that's partly because of the extra production and partly just because geographically, you're far away from the other infrastructure, so you actually need another compressor space station to drive it. And so that expansion and then a little bit more debottlenecking will complete the remaining expansions that takes us up to 125,000, including some of the midstream contracts we've signed, whereby there are expansions on the existing plants around Gold Creek that are ongoing. So Chris or Mike, do you want to comment on returns?
Chris LeGrow
executiveYes, for sure. So when we run our full cycle returns for all of our assets, we've been tracking them through time with the similar price deck that we've shown in here of that $80 and $4 world, we are in the 40% range for each for FDP for each asset. And so still robust returns at that pricing environment. And then when you do claw it back to $65 and $3 pricing world, you're still in the high 20% rate of return fully baked there, so still quite attractive.
Jonathan Wright
executiveGreat. Thanks, Chris. Next question, I'll flip to Mike here. What does the spending profile look like in the 5-year plan in millions of dollars? And does this stay relatively flat to 2024 levels? Does this also include facilities cost to add? And it looks like there's -- don't dismiss -- can we see more of that question?
Michael Lawford
executiveYes, I can start on that, Christian. So we're looking at it like between $550 million and $600 million would be the average over the next 5 years. And with that -- why that range sits there, is that each 10,000 BOE per day build out would be roughly between $75 million and $100 million of the infrastructure spend. So if you straddle that over a 2-year period, between Q4 and Q1, we can fit that $550 million to $600 million to give us the flexibility to fund infrastructure or potentially finance it through a third party.
Jonathan Wright
executiveThat's right. And as we have in the past, we will definitely build and operate that infrastructure. It's really just a question of whether we want to finance it ourselves or with a third party, and there are keen third parties to do that. And of course, that will end up being a discussion with our Board. But we have moved ahead with equipment ordering there. All right. So next question. Thank you for the work today. The question is, what is NuVista's take on adding new inventory at land sales? The market was skeptical of the [indiscernible] acquisition and NuVista has proven themselves as a talented resource developer. Thank you for that. In the past 24 months, hundreds of sections of Wapiti and Elmworth has hit the land sale which would NuVista -- would NuVista participate in exploration in this capacity in the future to further bolster inventory counts or focus more on the arc-type working interest top-ups?
Michael Lawford
executiveYes. Sure, Michael, thanks. That's a great question. We always like to look back at history to make sure we're not [indiscernible]. But if you remember back -- actually I don't remember what year it was, but when we purchased the 12.5 sections of Atlanta Pipestone South, we purchased that for $35 million at the time. And you fast forward to today, and that asset, on those 12.5 sections is supporting today a 17,000 BOE per day production level. We would think longer term, closer to 15,000 BOE per day, and that's been developed in 3 zones. So when you think about the lands that we acquired in late 2023, we think of that exactly the same way with 15 sections being able to support somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 BOE a day of productive flat life. And obviously, down there, the lands that we acquired still need to be configured with the puzzle pieces into a contiguous block. And that's the work that we'll do over the next 3 to 5 years in order to build that out. So in response to your question, like would you consider expand like -- expansion into new land and land sales, we really have been doing that to date, and we'll continue to pursue. But as you look at the land map that we showed you earlier in the deck, the area has been highly consolidated and there's very few limited opportunities on that front to acquire new lands.
Jonathan Wright
executiveAnd I think in case you didn't say, I think that 15,000 flat life for Pipestone itself, which is just 12.5 sections, we think of that as 10 to 15 years, right?
Michael Lawford
executiveYes. Good point.
Jonathan Wright
executivePerfect. Okay. So given the cadence of spend annually, can you speak towards how the buyback will be deployed. Similarly, if share price gets too high, could that return framework pivot to dividend or would you prefer to accelerate growth in that scenario? We don't talk much about accelerating growth. We like the growth pace we're at. It's a very, very healthy growth pace, but also very controlled. And therefore, we can be very disciplined about that. So we like the pace that we're doing. In terms of the buyback, I mean, it's nice having the buyback as a bit of an accordion because if you want to do -- you've hopefully seen today how disciplined and careful and long range this growth plan has to be. You have to sign contracts for 3 years out plus if you want to be able to grow into them. And so you need to know you're reliably going to be able to grow. Meanwhile, we have cash flow moving up and down with the inevitable commodity cycle, so the nice thing is typically we're only spending about 2/3, maybe 60% to 80% of cash flow. And so what that means is our buybacks can move up and down while we can still continue with a very steady capital pace, which allows us to execute with excellence and low cost in the way that you've just seen. And so we do see the buybacks as something that's a variable on top of a fairly steady and disciplined capital program. Now having said that, I'm looking forward to the day that you just quoted, which is the share price is too high. Well, our 2P reserves value at mid-cycle pricing by the evaluator deck alone is over $20 per share after tax, and I think it's $27, $28 before tax. So that's a very, very high number. Certainly, we -- if we -- as we see the share price inevitably starting to approach that number. Now keep in mind, we keep increasing that number over the years by adding more 2P reserves as well. But as we see that starting to approach something we have talked about with the Board, and we'll continue to talk about is sure, as trading multiples get more like what we think they should be and share price starts to maybe not reach but even get closer to our 2P valuation and as we become a bigger company and maybe as we start to approach our plateau, although we keep adding to our plateau. But as we start to approach it, those are all trappings of a very large company and most companies our size maybe they're growing at a lesser pace for the most part, but many of them do pay a dividend. And so that's definitely something that is in the consideration, not in the immediate frame, but in the outer years here, it's absolutely a consideration. All right. Here's another one. In your 5-year plan, do you increase the amount of capital that goes into the Lower Montney? What portion of wells will be in the Lower Montney versus Upper Montney at Elmworth Gold Creek and how does that look to change over time? And then there's a part 2, we'll get to.
Michael Lawford
executiveYes. Thanks, Jeremy. So the -- starting in the North in Pipestone, we've been actively developing the Lower Montney in every pad we've drilled. So think of in terms of Pipestone being 1/3 lower Montney/Bs. Gold Creek, just with the results you've seen to date, and we've been talking about this for a better part of the year now. We're going to full co-development in Gold Creek in the Lower Montney and Middle Montney. And then Elmworth is a bit of a work in progress. We're still in the piloting phase there. And Chris just pointed out here that we'll have a minimum of 2 benches piloted in every pad that we're drilling in Elmworth going forward and in some cases, up to 3. So yes, definitely an increase in the allocation of capital to the lower Montney than what you've seen over the past 5 years.
Jonathan Wright
executiveGreat. And then part 2 is -- and just confirming no large M&A? Would that be -- what would be reasons you would acquire? So same answer we always give in this one. There's no change to our plans. We're always looking every month our BD team is looking at assets and companies that are up and down trend to try and find where it makes sense to put the 2 together. And if we could do that accretively, adding value short term and long term, we do see the merits in becoming bigger. For example, with our growth plan, you just need 1 or 2 large acquisitions in your investment grade, and that's obviously got some benefits attached to it. What we will not do is sacrifice our existing growth plan in order to do that, and that means it has to add value. And that's a very difficult thing to compete again. So I hope we've compellingly showed you today how strong that business plan is and how much value it adds. So the example we often use, because it's a safe one is, if you had 2 NuVistas side-by-side, we would put those together all day long. So I guess that would be large M&A. But that's fairly unicornish and that's why you haven't seen us do anything major except the land acquisition in Q4 of last year. nothing major since the Pipestone acquisition. So we don't need to add to our inventory, but we see merits in becoming a bigger company through mergers with others if they're high value as well. All right. Are there any opportunities to purchase infrastructure in the future from free cash flow being generated, which could help lower the cost structure into the future? How do you weigh doing so versus retiring debt or repurchasing shares? Yes, a great discussion, we often have and have had with our Board. There is the opportunity in our future to repurchase some of the midstream infrastructure if we so choose. And it really depends, you look forward and you start imputing say, we're quite bullish on energy prices. We don't count on it, but we're quite bullish with the situation of the world, both for oil and natural gas pricing. And so there are scenarios that we could paint that are even rosier than what we just showed you. It's tremendous value added. And in those kind of cases, you start running your business plan outwards and you start running on paper unless you change something, you start running below 0 debt and you start running very, very high free cash flow level. So definitely, to adjust our cost structure, that's something that we could and would consider doing. We're not going to run our debt down all the way to 0 or below 0 like running cash on the balance sheet. We don't need to do that. So it's just that as we continue to grow, our optionality only grows and the ability to do those kind of things. We're not compelled or have to do anything there, but it's certainly something we'll always look at if it adds value to our long-term plans. Can you comment on future spacing adjustments you are envisioning when shifting from 2 bench to 3 bench development at Wapiti or Gold Creek? And how many wells per section would you expect from the 3 bench regions? You guys want to take that one?
Chris LeGrow
executiveYes, for sure. So in the Pipestone area right now and over the last several years, we have been developing at 100-meter well spacing. So 3 ventures, 100 meters between the wells laterally, and there's obviously a vertical stand off of 50 plus or minus meters there depending on which bench you're targeting. So as we move into Wapiti, we've been moving to about 200-meter well spacing as we've developed the -- added the second zone and so we're pretty comfortable with that development right now, and we'll slowly pilot tightening that up as we move forward. And in some areas where the reservoir is very similar to Pipestone, as we get to the north end of our Wapiti Gold Creek block there is -- you could very well see us take a similar development approach to that of which we employ in the Pipestone area.
Jonathan Wright
executiveGreat. Thanks, Chris. So here's a question. On one of your slides, you showed that there's something like 770 wells left to drill even after 2033 and most of those seem to be in completely virgin areas doing what you've been doing. But there are some areas where there's some existing wells. So can you say anything about infill wells or parent-child like those -- or another way of asking it, I would say, is are you worried about any of those 770 remaining wells, which takes you out to 2053?
Michael Lawford
executiveYes. I'll make a couple of comments just on the infills, like we typically -- like we've done 3 to date. We've got 1 at Bilbo and 2 at Pipestone North. And we typically would bottle those at 25% to 33% below a type curve well. Keep in mind, the economics are buoyed up by the fact that you're drilling on that pad regardless of whether you add the infilling or not. And we've seen results that match exactly how we have them modeled. And with respect to the other areas in gray. One really good example is the big wedge of gray to the southwest of where we've been developing in Elmworth. We expect that those wells down there will be lower condensate gas ratio. But 10, 15, 20 years from now, where is the gas price? And does that fit into your development out at that point in time? Still to be determined, but it's not part of what we have planned out for the next 10 years. Chris, you have anything to add?
Chris LeGrow
executiveYes. And maybe just the one part there is in the Pipestone area, there are a number of legacy wells that were drilled by a prior operator, but they had a very old vintage completion with -- measure the tonnes per meter and less than 0.5 tonnes per meter.
Jonathan Wright
executiveLike we all did way back in the day.
Chris LeGrow
executiveYes, yes, and the recovery factor on that rock is extremely low. And so between our first data points that we have internally on our first infills plus talking to other area operators and looking at some of the results they've achieved by drilling above and below and adjacent to these legacy wells is we are not concerned with developing around them, and we just modeled our expectations accordingly, but the economic proposition of developing there still is extremely robust.
Michael Lawford
executiveYes. And in that particular area, it's also important to remember that, that is almost exclusively single zone development in all of those legacy wells that Chris was mentioning.
Jonathan Wright
executiveYes. I mean I know I'll get this precisely wrong, but approximately, maybe correct. So keep me straight. But you think of a stock of wells being drilled across all 4 zones. We typically drill 3 and frac across 4 in Pipestone, for example. And maybe there's 100 Bcf in place in that stack of wells, maybe we're going to produce 50 Bs out of all of our wells drilled. And what's been taken out of some of those legacy wells is like what, Thomas, a few Bcf, right -- so you're talking -- that's just another way to think about it. You have this massive stack of rock which is at a very little amount of drainage and that's why the infills that we've already done to date are actually working very well. But one thing to add to that is not only when we're doing wells like that near legacy wells do we discount our economics. But as Mike pointed out, you already have the pad there, you already have the road pipeline. So it's just an extra wellbore, so that the economics are assisted by that. It makes a big difference to the results from the economic point of view. All right. I see we have one more question here. So the new -- sorry, I'm going to say one more thing, too, on that. it's not just legacy wells. As was pointed out earlier on, we're drilling pads right beside existing pads every time. And some of those pads they're not legacy wells, but some of them are 3 months old, 9 months old, 18 months old. And so already in our ongoing economics for a number of years, we always discount the closest wells to the existing pad because there's always a very slight difference in the way that they get fracked. And so that's already in our economics where we're getting good results. So -- so I'll give you a one more minute just to see if there's any more questions that want to kind of come in here just because we want to make sure you've had your time, but it's currently 9.15. And unless we see any other questions coming in, in the next minute or so, then we'll give you back the rest of your day.
Ivan Condic
executiveAnd a heads up to the audience that we'll have this investor deck along with the virtual replay of this Investor Day posted to our website in short order available on our website.
Jonathan Wright
executiveOkay. Great. Well, look, if you think of any questions after we finish here and you want any follow-up, I think you all know it's easy to find us, and we're always happy to answer questions on a one-to-one basis. So happy to do that. I want to thank everyone for making the time today. We appreciate it. I'm immensely proud of our team and what they've been able to achieve. We are fortunate indeed to have the assets that we have, the address that we have, the people that we have and the support of shareholders and our Board. So I thank everybody. Thank you for your time, and we will see you at the next investor presentation. Bye-bye.
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