NV Bekaert SA (BEKB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning all, and welcome to Bekaert's Q3 Trading Update. Delighted to have with me Yves Kerstens, CEO; and for the first time, Seppo Parvi, new CFO. Before I hand over to them, I'll just take quickly through the safe harbor. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect the current views of management regarding future events and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Bekaert is providing the information in this presentation as of its date and does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements contained in it in light of new information, future events or otherwise. Bekaert disclaims any liability for statements made or published by third parties, does not undertake any obligation to correct inaccurate data, information, conclusions or opinions published by third parties in relation to this or any other publication issued by Bekaert. With that out of the way, I'd like to hand over to Yves, please.

Thanks, Guy. First of all, a warm welcome from our side here in the first couple of days more winter environment and also welcome to Seppo Parvi who is joining us from the 1st of November as the CFO for Bekaert Group after a smooth transition period in September, October. Some of you will have the opportunity to meet Seppo in the upcoming weeks and months to have a more personal connection with Seppo. So let me pivot to the trading update for the third quarter. We've seen from the month of July and then continued in August, September, a much more weakened market outlook globally based on the overall economic situation, a little bit different dynamic per region, but we see basically across the regions and across our businesses. And of course, also the more tense geopolitical context we are working in. In that context, we delivered sales of EUR 956 million in the quarter, and 8% lower than the previous year reference quarter, driven by, on one hand, the normalization of the input materials, wire rod and energy prices in the pricing aspect and roughly 5% across the businesses in lower volumes. In this overall market situation, we still see some pockets where we have nice growth, nice order book, and we'll come back to that later. In that context, we've been proactive in managing our cost at the different levers, meaning overhead cost, manufacturing, input material costs, basically to deliver on stable margins for 2024, but also moving further in competitiveness beyond 2024. We continue to deliver very good cash flow generation by the business operationally, but also by discipline in our CapEx allocation, and we keep on having a very low financial leverage. The Board also decided to start -- restart the share buyback that we paused in the beginning of the year with a share buyback up to EUR 200 million over the period of the next 2 years. Some perspectives and color of the different businesses, which gives a mixed performance and a mixed outlook, and Seppo will go into a little bit more details about the top line evolution for the businesses. Let me start with our Rubber Reinforcement, tire reinforcement segment where we've seen a weak Q3 in terms of demand, mainly in China and Europe with some good, stable performance in the other regions. In these two regions, the demand was mainly impacted by the truck tire sales compensated by an increased demand and opportunity for us on the passenger tire reinforcement. Steel Wire Solutions continued a strong performance after H1, which we reported in July. They, of course, have seasonality in their yearly calendar, but despite the lower volumes and some delays in the energy and utilities market in North America, we see a continued good trading in this segment with some strong segments in automotive in China and also some good growth and businesses in this energy and utilities market, both in Europe and as well in America. BBRG, our steel ropes and synthetic ropes business and advanced cords business. We reported that during the first half of the year going into Q3, we had some operational challenges in our locations in the U.S. and in the U.K. We presented in July the turnaround plan. We can confirm that we are on track to deliver on that turnaround plan operationally, so improved performance. And that on Q4, we'll continue that journey to be back on track by the end of this year. Specialty Business, different business with different dynamics. So first of all, in sustainable construction, on a year-to-date basis, showing a growth in terms of business and volume. Despite that, we see some project delays in some areas, but we keep on having a robust project pipeline and developing new offerings moving forward. Important to mention there is that we are focusing on the impact of TCO, meaning square meters reinforced in flooring and number of kilometers of tunnel -- of mining reinforcements. The energy transition segment and specifically the hydrogen, I think we all have followed what happened globally in this segment of energy transition, where we are in a period where we can call for the moment is a little bit paused and all policymakers, including companies and key stakeholders are looking how to further, let's say, develop the energy transition and -- because from a climate perspective, we're all companies, we need to continue the journey. So this, as explained in July, has been paused -- not paused, let's say, slowed down with 1 to 2 years. So we keep on developing these activities with some nice growth this year, we'll talk about next year later. And we aligned our expectations moving forward. And as you know, we did modular capacity increases. So we are flexible to flex towards how the market is developing. Two other segments in energy transition, the Combustion Technology where we have a weak demand but stabilizing, so which is the business with our gas burners. After the policy change in Germany 2, 3 years, business stabilized and performing at that level. And we've seen a decline in Ultra Fine Wires, mainly in the solar panel segment with some overcapacity and overstocking while in the semicon, we still see a strong demand. If you look at some of the highlights on further development, first of all is the proactive cost management, where we continued an intensified initiative to reduce the overheads moving forward, in line with the strategy to have the BU-centric organization, taking end-to-end responsibility from strategy to delivery. And also in there, optimizing our footprint based on the latest market outlook and opportunities. Secondly, in terms of sustainability impact and offerings and recognition in the market, nice progress further with Dramix with special applications, where we won both in China as well in Europe, some awards recognizing the sustainability impact of Dramix. And positive news from the EU Innovation Fund, where Bekaert has been qualified for EUR 24 million funding to further scale up the upcoming years. Let's say, first of all, the porous transport layer component we make for electrolysis. Secondly, our innovation with MEA based on the license agreement of Toshiba but also the next generation of the porous transport layer, the AEM. So for these three components, European Innovation Fund has selected Bekaert within these investment projects. Last, as an example on our sustainability investments, which we continue to do, is the launch of the solar panels in our China's campus in Jiangyin, supporting us in our sustainability journey. So some nice further consideration on top of managing the business on short term. I would like to spend some time on the BBRG update because this is compared to the performance of '23, one of the segments where we've been underperforming due to internal operational challenges. So as mentioned, the issue is mainly in the U.S. or was mainly in the U.S. and U.K., not in the other regions, where business continue and operations continue to trend positively. So we made certainly in U.S. process in Q3 on the operational improvements of our processes and our equipments. And so we remain on track to be back on track by the end of the year. We see in U.S. from a market perspective, we still see a good order book, but we see in some segments a softer demand, mainly in the mining sector, in the coaling segment, where there has been an over -- in terms of supply chain, high stock levels, so we see some corrections there. On the synthetic part and the more wider play in synthetic works, we successfully integrated BEXCO and is delivering in line with expectations and is basically from a synergies point of view, but is trading ahead in terms of our outlook from the business. So positive integration of this business in the portfolio of Bekaert. And on top, we have the Flintstone connectors acquisitions and the combination of BEXCO and Flintstone gives us nice offerings in the market which are appreciated by the customer base. As mentioned, by the end of the year, we expect to be fully returned to normal operations and sales and order books. However, we are continuing to look into investments to upgrade, let's say, the equipment in these locations beyond '24 into '25. So after that deep dive, I would now like to hand over to Seppo for a more financial review on the top line overall and the different segments.

Thanks, Yves. And let's look at the sales bridge first. And there, you can see that top line development has been mainly driven by lower volumes as well as cost development effect on selling prices shown here and the raw material inflation. Proactive portfolio management earlier led to neutral price and mix impact despite lower volumes in weaker demand environment, as already described by Yves. Lower volumes are a result of weaker demand, but we have been very proactive on cost management to protect profitability and margin. That is also visible in the outlook for '24 that we also have today published, and there, you can see that our underlying EBIT margins are broadly in line with 2023 despite the declining sales. Let's then look at the consolidated sales in different business units and on the group level. In the group, we are down 8%. And in the various business units from 2% in BBRG up to 10% in Steel Wire Solutions. Like I said, earlier proactive portfolio management and selection has led to neutral price and mix impact despite lower volumes in the weak demand environment. And raw material and energy input cost effect on pricing was about 3%. This is, as you know, more pass-through and it has limited or no margin effect as such. In Rubber Reinforcement, volumes were down 4.4%. This is mainly driven by truck tire cords in China and EU. And raw material and energy price mix was about negative 3.6%. In Steel Wire Solutions, we have had strong performance, but volumes are down 7.7%. Here it's worth to notice or remember that last year, we had closures in Indonesia and India that is having a large effect on the volume development in Steel Wire Solutions. But we have some weaknesses in Latin America and some order delays from energy and utility customers in North America having an effect in the volumes. In the Specialty Businesses, we have a strong performance from construction, up 3% if you look at the volumes for the first 9 months despite having some customer project delays. And what we have seen is stronger adaptation in flooring in the broad regions like India, Turkey and Middle East and also better win rates in EU countries that has been supported by FALCONIX Engineering services. Hydrogen, if you look at the Q3 growth, there was growth year-on-year. outlook remains positive, and positive results, and more and more projects are reaching final investment decisions. Also important to repeat and mention this qualified, -- qualification for up to EUR 24 million EU funding that Yves mentioned. I think it's important step and recognition for our energy transformation platform. But there has been some delays in short term, when it comes to projects and growth, but we have been able to derisk that well, thanks to our modular capacity expansion approach. But important to note is that the fundamentals for this business and growth opportunities remain there. There's no change in the fundamentals. These are rather short-term trend issues. Then look at the other subsegments, they are a bit mixed. Combustion Technologies have been further down in third quarter. Filtration and fiber markets are having similar demand challenges, but they have been relatively resilient versus last year. And then Hose and Conveyor Belt and Ultra Fine Wire end markets have further weakened also in the third quarter, translating into lower sales and order books. In BBRG, operational issues in steel ropes in U.S. and U.K. are mitigated, and we see already improvement in the business, and we expect that to continue towards the year-end. And we also expect that sales volumes and margins are back on track at planned run rate level by year-end. Price/mix was negative by 7.4% in the quarter year-on-year and volumes down 2%. Given the challenges in our end markets and our businesses, we are focused on proactive cost management to support the margins as well as putting more and more focus on working capital management to take care of the cash flow part. This is important. These are the things that we can control. Markets are often what they are, but when it comes to costs and cash flow and operating working capital management, those are in our hands, and that's where we have been focusing since the summertime, already been very proactive there. And we have cost initiatives in place to reduce overheads as well as we are looking at operating efficiency improvements. And as there is overcapacity on the market, we also obviously need to look at the footprint and more focused. Now back to you, Yves.

Thanks, Seppo. Next I'll be speaking some words on the share buyback that we decided to restart. So the context for that decision is we continue to evaluate strategically the M&A for the group in line with the end markets and the verticals that we selected. Secondly, the investments we've done in the growth areas position us for the upcoming 1, 2 years in a position where we have the capacity to scale up further these platforms as soon as the markets further develop, so not requiring additional more CapEx in the upcoming 1 year, 2 years. We continue to have good cash flow generation and low levels of our debt. So therefore, in terms of prioritization and, let's say, dynamic capital allocation, we are convinced that the share buyback is a value creation for all the stakeholders and for all our shareholders, and we restart with a program of EUR 200 million of shares over the next 24 months. In the case there would be a substantial M&A, we will, of course, review the share buyback. Coming back to the acquisition in '24. So we've been actively looking in these end markets, working on cases. We successfully concluded BEXCO, but no major deal in '24 has been executed, and therefore, the Board decided to reactivate the share buyback program. So summarizing '24 year-to-date and more specifically on Q3. It has been really a dynamic context in terms of the environment where we have and had to react very quickly on the latest market situation. We still see a good continued performance in SWS, difficult market in Q3 in RR. On Q4, we see stabilization of the situation with a little bit better situation in China than in Q3. And so looking forward to see how the market will evolve in the automotive and the tire industry based on the recent trends of the automotive sector. We continue in construction, the long-term play with a good performance, and we have mixed performance in some of the smaller segments, in Specialty Business. And then as mentioned, BBRG on the journey to come back to the performance we had before. Let me say some words about the anticipation for the full year 2024 outlook. So on a consolidated sales level, we expect to have a top line slightly below EUR 4 billion with an underlying EBIT (sic) [ EBITu ] in the range of EUR 340 million to EUR 350 million with EBITu margins broadly in line with '23, a demonstration of the resilience of the Bekaert Group in the last couple of years that despite changing market environment, delivering on a strong profit levels and cash generation. So Guy, I think it's moment to open for Q&A.

Very good. Thank you, Yves and Seppo. [Operator Instructions] Alexander, I think you are first. Please unmute and go ahead.

Alexander from Kepler Cheuvreux here. First, a warm welcome to Seppo Parvi. Nice to see you join the team of Bekaert. Some questions from our side. So one would be if there is a specific reason for the change in wording from the last quarter to this quarter, where you previously indicated a strong cash flow generation in the outlook and now a good cash flow generation. I'm just wondering whether there was a specific reason for that small change in wording? Second question would be on the outlook. I think your outlook is now guiding for an EBIT margin of around 8.5% on the low end of the guidance. Of course, that was -- the market is looking a bit ahead to 2025 and many are still anticipating a margin increase. So I'm just wondering whether -- when we're looking at the volume decreases accelerating quarter-on-quarter, whether the operational leverage of the lower volumes will not outweigh the positive price/mix effect. And then on the EUR 300 million, EUR 350 million EBIT guidance also for -- considering that you guided for a margin increase a couple of months ago, I was just wondering which segment suddenly shifted quarter-on-quarter for this adjustment in the margin guidance? And then maybe as a last question on the Rubber Reinforcement segment. You highlighted the impact on margins and increasing your cost efficiency to combat that. Could you maybe just specify where this impact is coming from? Is this related to volumes purely? Or is this also related somewhat to a shift away from electric vehicles, let's say, so that the mix is also a bit lower than expected?

I will take the cash flow part and then you can take the rest more business related. I think if you look at the cash flow and as you see the business has been getting big which obviously means that in euro terms, you create less profits even though that the margins, I think there, like I said, we have been doing a good job protecting the margin levels. And that is maybe -- you're right, maybe a Bekaert which is strong, could, but that's not the reason. And then that is also why we are putting more and more focus on working capital management, to enhance cash flow going forward.

Good. So Alex, thanks for the question. And so first of all, let me take one by one on the margin. So looking this year at, say, between 8.5%, 9% on the EBIT margin. On the midterm outlook or on the capital market, we did talk about the target for '26 around the 10% with earnings. And so we keep on still working, as mentioned before, also we get the Group of Bekaert between 9% and 11% through the cycle. We are clearly here on a downward cycle. What happened first half of the year, we're trending close to 10% profit. We have the normal seasonality. Now what happened in Q3 was a fast deterioration -- a faster deterioration of the economic situation in some of the regions and also the political uncertainty that we had with some elections around the world. So that drove the top line down and also some competitive situation in some segments. So it's not only purely economic overall situation, but there's also intensified competition in some of the segments. And that's one of the drivers, correct, as we mentioned, top line down and then the operational leverage. Now what we are doing, and we demonstrated the last couple of years as well that whatever the volume is and that we are flexing much more our fixed cost and also the variable cost, and we'll continue to do that. So moving forward, based on what we see the scenarios, let's call it, for '25 because I don't think many people exactly know at which level the economic activity will be in the different regions in '25, but we are preparing ourselves for different scenarios and in that flexing our costs. If you go back to your question on the EUR 340 million, EUR 350 million EBITu and what drove, let's say, in the last couple of months, then one segment, which is, of course, an important segment is our Rubber Reinforcement segment where mainly the demand in truck and bus has gone down in EMEA and China, mainly severe competition as well on demand, but also severe competition for our tire customers compared to European, U.S. players and the Chinese players. You know that we are more skewed towards truck and bus at 60% to 65%. We've been offsetting in the Rubber Reinforcement the decline by pivoting more to passenger tires. And I think what we feel now recently is, of course, the whole value chain, correct? If we see the disruption in the automotive industry where electrification slowed down, but also fundamental question of some of the big groups, like the Volkswagen Group or other groups, right, reviewing their product portfolio and their investment manufacturing capacity adjustments. And so that certainly is trickling down the full value chain, right, going to the tire manufacturers, where we see also these volume decreases as well to, of course, the component suppliers or the Tier 2 suppliers. So these are certainly a segment where we've seen a deterioration. Other segment where we further see, versus first half, and second half is the Ultra Fine Wire in energy transition, a smaller segment, but pretty profitable segment with the core wire and the semicon wire. I think that are the main two where we've seen further deterioration. I think on SWS, pretty stable and good performance, as mentioned, construction is stable and then BBRG in line. So this gives you some perspective. Let me see, help me if I missed the question or not.

I think you already answered the question in your previous answer, which was on the Rubber Reinforcement which was on the impact of the margins. But -- so basically, it's really a combination. Right now in Q3, if I understood it correctly, it's rather more the volumes from the truck and bus. But in the future, it might also mean a bit of a shift away in the passenger side from electrical vehicles, if I understood that correctly.

Yes. So -- but we have to see what that means for us because as mentioned, we are more heavier to the truck and bus with, of course, some opportunities on the high end. We focus on the higher-end mix also for tire product, correct, which is linked to what you exactly said on high rim diameter, but high rim diameter doesn't mean -- of electric vehicle doesn't mean by definition, only higher rim diameter, also the combustion engine cars have high rim diameter, correct? So we are not so much concerned about the electrification trend, but more concerned about the whole automotive industry, correct? That's what we need to monitor the volumes. If you see the announcement of manufacturing closures, capacity reduction, now that doesn't mean it automatically impacts the entire tire demand or the tire cord, but there's clearly overcapacity in the market, certainly in Europe and U.S. and a severe competition from the Chinese OEMs, which are pretty successful in their local market plus also in export. Now the good thing is that we are a global business, correct? So we are in China, and we are in Europe and in the U.S. That means there will be some shift and that we're also adopting in terms of sourcing and correct, what do we source from where, where do we need to add the capacity. So that means Europe capacity is certainly one area of focus.

Maybe if -- I have two small follow-up questions. So if you could just remind me the margin difference between original equipment and replacement equipment isn't really different. I think I had that in my notes. Could you confirm that? And the second question, yes, would be if you see already a change in trends on the replacement cycle. That's it from me.

Yes. So in terms of margin price of tire cord, basically, even we as a supplier, not always know if it goes into an OE tire or in a replacement tire, correct, so in terms of specification. So there's no -- from tire cord point of view, of course, for the tire manufacturers in terms of pricing, there is a difference, but not so much for ourselves. And the second question, I think was on...

The replacement cycle.

Yes. So in terms of tires, you mean tires replacement cycle, so if that would be changing the assumptions? I don't see...

Yes, if you see a change in trends there.

No, no, I don't -- not that we are aware of and not that we -- yes.

Wim, you're next. Please go ahead.

Also a couple of questions. Maybe I will ask them one by one. So first question is on, yes, the discussion, M&A versus share buybacks. Yes, can you confirm you are still actively looking at M&A? And if so, yes, have the criteria, parameters changed in any way? And also if M&A would then come back in the agenda, what would you do with the shares that were acquired? Will you cancel them along the way? Or will you keep them as a war chest? Can you maybe comment a little bit around that? This is, yes, first question, and I pause here to let you answer.

Thanks, Wim, to ask them one by one, so that it's easy to remember. So first of all, on the M&A side, so there is no change and even, I would say, the opposite, that we are intensifying our focus on it. We have a dedicated team. Myself and now also Seppo will be fully engaged. We are talking to many of the potential companies that we are thinking or interested to have in our portfolio. So very active discussions, active cases. And the point is that in '24, as I mentioned, there is not -- there has not been a big transaction. We continue to work on bolt -- the more, let's say, bolt-on adjacent to reinforce, in construction in energy transition. We start also now with a good performance in Steel Wire Solutions, gradually looking at how to look at portfolio expansion there as well. So I can only confirm that it remains strategic.

Maybe to add. But of course, in this kind of business environment that we are in, there might come up nice, good opportunities when it comes to valuation of the targets as well.

That's a good point, Seppo. Good to remind. And we've seen cases where we've been discussing and was mentioned in previous call that expectations were really high, sometimes unrealistic based on a bullish outlook of some of the segments industries, which basically -- and as you know, we have a pretty prudent approach to that. Of course, some of them are now back on the table with more realistic outlook. So we will further look into that. Secondly, on the share buyback. So the basic principle is that we will execute the share buyback the upcoming 2 years, we will cancel the shares step by step. And basically, it's only in case there will be a big M&A that we need to review the share buyback because with smaller M&As, we can -- from a funding point of view, we have the leverage to do the small -- and the cash flow generation to do the small M&As. There's also -- you've seen in the past, I think we will talk about EUR 250 million CapEx, for example, for this year based on the growth of some of the segments, based on the outlook of some of these segments, also there, we are having a disciplined on the CapEx and recalibrating, which gives us some firepower also on the cash side, not investing in organic, but in the inorganic. So I think that's a little bit the picture.

Yes. Okay. That's very good. Just as a follow-up on that, can you offer a fresh CapEx guidance, not only for this year, but also maybe for next year? Already then lower investments in hydrogen, for example. So what does that mean to the overall CapEx budget?

So for this year, roughly -- we had EUR 250 million, then I think mid of the year, were somewhere around EUR 210 million, guiding EUR 200 million. And for this year, we are trying to land at EUR 175 million, EUR 185 million. So we continue, and I want to confirm that we continue to deploy the investments that we decided on, correct, sometimes with lower speed with some others. That means next year CapEx, if you look at the three components of the CapEx that you have, let's say, the compliance, the maintenance improvement and the growth CapEx, and most of the growth CapEx for next year is a continuation of the programs we have this year, correct? So we are still finalizing our business plan for next year. But as a first assumption, I think you can take the current levels of CapEx as a rough assumption, plus and minus.

Okay. That's clear. And then last question from my would be, yes, any thoughts about U.S. trade policies going forward and the impact that might have on your business? I recall from the previous presidency of Mr. Trump that, yes, there was some import tariffs on wire rod, for example. So any thoughts about how changing trade policies might impact Bekaert. Nowadays, you probably had some time to -- also to adjust footprints in the meanwhile, et cetera. So I'm wondering if you have any thoughts on that.

No, correct. So with clarity now on the presidency and what it means that we still need to see between what -- how quickly and how the policies will be changing. But the first of all is the higher trade barriers, correct, that certainly will become more specific in the upcoming months. On one hand, we are a global company with presence in the different regions, which has -- give us flexibility, correct, to use our supply chain. This is for -- in U.S., we have RR, we have SWS and we have construction and all, so we have a good local footprint. One dimension is this will give opportunities locally with made in America and making America great again. Certainly, there is with that local footprint an opportunity for us. So based on that, we are seeing how to further reinforce and invest in the U.S. Our strategy has always been local for local. Of course, you have a competitive challenge with higher labor cost, higher wire rod costs in the U.S., balancing what you do locally and what you import. But I would say with the recent evolution, I think local for local become more important, and we are doubling down on that. From the import markets, the tariffs. So first of all, there will be a more tendency of tariffs from China to U.S. Ourselves with our footprint in Vietnam and Indonesia, right, have opportunities to import into the U.S. and into Mexico from this side. So we are assessing the situation, but we think it gives us opportunities both locally as well as globally. And I think there is then a question a little bit beyond is the energy transition, correct, to see with the IRA and the Inflation Reduction Act. We know that the Trump administration is not so supportive on some of these programs, but we are monitoring carefully how that is going to pivot. And we think likely will be modified, but not completely changed because there's a lot of job creation in the U.S. as well that will be done through this IRA that has been in execution on the move, correct? And we don't think that will change. And also a lot of these incentive subsidies go to the Republican states. And so we are monitoring clearly what's going to happen, but we still see fundamentally that for the energy transition slower than the past, but there will be some progress as well.

And I think in general, I would say that trade barriers are never good. But looking at the footprint of Bekaert, it's good to notice that we have presence in U.S., China, Europe, also in Asia outside China. So that gives us a good -- a better position actually to mitigate compared to our competitors who, for instance, have footprint only in China.

Plus we have the local supply chain, correct? So in U.S., we have local wire rod supplier base, so which basically is protecting the full value chain.

Frank, you're next. Please go ahead.

Frank Claassen from Degroof Petercam. I'll also ask my questions one by one. First of all, maybe zoom in on the working capital. You indicated a strong free cash flow for this year. What can we expect roughly for working capital? Do you have some kind of target for next -- for end of this year as a percentage of revenues? And what are the main drivers for the working capital? Is it inventories? Or can you elaborate on that?

Yes. Of course, in the trading update, we don't go beyond sales commentary typically, as you know. But looking at the working capital and where we see the opportunities, it's always, of course, one of the key areas, inventory management, how do we manage inventory, especially in the business environment where demand has been going down. So that is clearly an area where we can improve. Then other area is that look at our customer base and receivables. I'm not so much worried about the bad debt risks there. It's quite healthy structure, but it's quite typical that many customers take advantage and delay their payments. And that is some focus area that where we need to be more focused and can I say, more aggressive in collecting overdues faster. So that is one area. And then, of course, typical things on payments when it comes to both sales and purchasing that working on the payment terms that are more beneficial for us as a company, very basic things. There's no fancy stuff when it comes to working capital.

And then maybe on hydrogen, you've indicated that this year, the revenues will increase by 40%. In the past, you've talked about doubling each year. Is this 40% now a more realistic, let's say, growth rate going forward as well? Can you elaborate on that?

Yes, Frank. So there 2 aspects to it. Let me start with the fundamentals. So of course, overall, we see, let's say, some projects canceled, delayed in terms of mainly drivers of uncertainty in policymaking about the funding of that the green or blue hydrogen, the takeoff contracts, regulations scaling up. So that's what's clearly out there. There is below a layer of initiative projects and players that basically continue investing and deploying. And so basically, if you see the FID projects went in the last couple of months from, I think, a 9 gigawatt to 15 gigawatts. So we've seen FID confirmations increasing over the last couple of months. So that's a positive trend and confirming that there will be continuous growth. In the meantime, we are continuing to qualify with our polish transport layer, but also with the newer products with big players. That's a process that takes time, correct? But that confirms our product road map are competitive. So we are confident about that. What's happening on the short term is that basically if you see the electrolyzer company, they have been preparing for scaling up. They've been building up critical components. So we confirm this year our growth of 40%. From this year to next year, we see moderate growth or stable because basically, our customers are adjusting their supply chain because of the stock levels they've been building up. Now what is key there, and that's why we remain ready to scale up with the 2 factories we have, the one in China and the one fully operational now in Belgium, about 1.2 gigawatts because some of our customers are working on big projects, correct? So if they follow basically, then you'll talk about sizable volumes for these big projects. So in summary, a little bit stable towards next year. And then our projection is that, yes, we go more to 40%, 50% growth doubling like in the past, in the years beyond.

Okay. That's helpful. Maybe also on this EUR 24 million innovation fund, when are you going to receive these grants? Is there any time frame attached to this?

So we've been awarded now the final documentation and signing. I think the signing on top of my mind, I think must be somewhere quarter 1 or first half next year. I think quarter 1 next year with the first prepayment because it's tranches, a big amount is a prepayment. And then a part of the amount is when the facility goes into operation. So that will be them more of '26. And then you have some grants that come with the volumes that you produce because this is driven to the CO2 reduction we are realizing with the products that we bring in the market. So you have to see the cash in '25, '26, '27 and the year behind. And this is for us a significant support, correct, because we have a CapEx over the upcoming years, again, delayed with 1, 2 years now of roughly around EUR 70 million, EUR 80 million in this segment. So it's sizable for us. And -- but for us, it's even more important recognition of the offering and the capabilities we have, we score pretty high scores also from an innovation point of view.

Okay. And then final question, maybe the favorite subject, but, let's say, the wire rod FIFO story is wire rod prices have been coming down. Is there any inventory adjustments baked into your guidance? Or what can you say about that?

Of course, the inventory valuation plays a role when it comes to profitability in short and longer term, as you know, it's a wash. It will even out as the inventory runs out and new is coming in. In general, you could say that this year, inventory valuation differences have been quite small compared to last year, for example. So nothing major on that front.

That's true that if you compare H1 and H2, why not further down and we've [indiscernible] tell us that the steelmaking companies also communicating about the low prices correct, in some of the margins -- in some of the markets. So there is some negative effect in this year as well, but to a lesser extent than last year.

Nothing significant or material.

Stijn, you're next. Please go ahead.

Also a couple of questions from my end. So the first one is on the buyback. The fact that you spread it over a 2-year period, does this say anything about how long you expect this weakness to endure? And if not, what's the logic of announcing this program over a 2-year period instead of the 1 year of the past? That's the first one.

I don't think you need to take any conclusion about that. I think we want to get, let's say, clarity and stability also and what we see for the upcoming 2 years, is that simply from our perspective, capital allocation that we have that bandwidth. And we think this period is one of the good driver for value creation.

And also thinking sort of announcing 1-year or 2-year program, I think it also reflects our confidence in our cash flow generation capabilities also going forward.

Okay. Understood. Second one, capacity utilization in RR in China and Europe. From memory, it was still pretty high in the first half, especially in China. How has this evolved? And if it has declined, which I assume is the case, does this negative operating leverage play a role in the reduced guidance?

So first of all, if you look market by market, China was still pretty good in the first half, roughly 95%. That came down slightly in Q3, more around 90%. Now if you look into Q4, we're trending better again a little bit. So we took some further action and some recovery. So that's on China. So you're right, it came slightly down. In Europe as well. So utilization running around 70%, 80% and now more on the lower end of this bandwidth. So in both segments that came down. So what we are working with that not in our segment in all segments is to more make sure we variabilize costs much more. But of course, these volumes have, of course, an operational leverage. And as mentioned, RR is one of the segments, which is one of the drivers for the lower global guidance.

Okay. Just to clarify, in Europe, it's between 70% and 80% and currently at the lower end of that range. Did I understand correct?

Yes, for Q3, correct. Yes. and then for Q4, we see again for the moment, a little bit better situation than Q3. And again, some slightly higher. And globally, we assess RR around 80%, 85% of utilization globally.

Yes. And sorry to further ask on this, but what was it in Europe in the first half? Was it towards the higher end of the 80%?

Top of my mind, Europe. I think more 75%, 80%, if I remember.

Would you agree that the decline in China is more cyclic in Europe, it seems pretty structural. Also comparing it to the comments you made earlier on capacity shutdowns, for example, [indiscernible] France, et cetera.

Yes, correct. Our position is also different, correct? If you look at China, we are an important player, but we don't have the majority of the market share, correct? So we are an important player, but not the biggest one. And then there we reduced our capacity already last year and the year before time is flying, correct? So we adjusted. So we're running there much at higher capacity ranges. And there it's also a market that reacts much more quicker. And that means if you look at the contracts and the trading, it's more dynamic market where you can react much more faster on volumes and pricing than Europe. Europe, as you know, there's typically more long-term contracts, we have our higher market share, we are an important player in the direct book, the leading player in direct in Europe. And structurally, there has been already more overcapacity. Now in China, there has been overcapacity in the whole industry, but not on our side, correct. And I think that's how you need to see the 2 regions.

Okay. Understood. Then 2 smaller follow-ups. First one on hydrogen. Can you remind me what CapEx you initially had in your multiyear plan and what part of it has already been spent to date? And then secondly, could you also a bit comment on the quantum of sales and EBIT that you're missing out in BBRG given the sort of self-inflicted issues this year?

Now you're testing my memory on [indiscernible] invested already. So we did the investment upgrade in our China factory, it was an upgrade that we did the investment, if I recall around EUR 20 million, EUR 25 million in Belgium for the second 1 gigawatt. And then we did some investment, of course, in the R&D. So perhaps we come offline back to you over how much we already invested in that business. As mentioned, we have continued to invest in the R&D part. In terms of capacity for the moment, the upcoming 1, 2 years, we don't see the need with the 2.4 gigawatts we have, we have the capacity to serve the market. And that was for the short-term question on...

The quantum of sales and EBIT that you're missing this year in BBRG?

Yes, correct. So first half was roughly around EUR 30 million, EUR 35 million on the top line, correct? So you can do the calculations on the margins there. And we see that's still -- but to a lower extent in second half, but still impacting because we prioritize quality, productivity, equipment, process stability, and that has still an impact to a certain extent on our top line second half, but a bit smaller.

Martijn, you're next.

Very few questions left actually. On Specialty, on Dramix, if I look at the quarterly development, it was plus 7% growth in Q1. It was plus 4% in H1, so already down, negative in Q2, and now it's 3% in the first 9 months. So again, negative in Q3. Yet you say it stabilizes and that you actually have good prospects. I can't reconcile the actual developments with those statements. So can you please elaborate on what's happening with Dramix?

Yes, very good question, Martijn. You're spot on and it a little bit deserves a minute of explanation. So if you look at the offering of Dramix with the Rubber Reinforcement, basically, the TCO offering is less steel, less concrete, and we are focusing much more on applications, that dedicated application solutions. So that's a good long-term trend. We had a plan last -- for '24, '23 was a strong year in terms of profitability, but we didn't realize the growth that we wanted to achieve in Dramix. So for the plan for '24 was basically more on the growth of the 7%, 8%, 9%. And then where I need to explain to you is that we are looking at square meters reinforced flow and kilometers of tunnels. The challenge in this segment, and that's what we report on this we report, of course, top line. So you still have the effect on the wire rod assumptions that plays also in this business. So where we are fundamentally looking at because the TCO is less kilos and less Dramix that's our value proposition, is are we making strategic progress in the number of floors we reinforce square meters and the tunnels. So that's part of the variances, so that you see the mix. It's reflecting in the mix, which we didn't report here out, but the mix is improving to more 4D, 5D, correct and -- but less on the top line in euros, but more on the square meters. Having said that, there is also a market context and dynamic in it where Europe, which is our biggest market, has some slowdown, plus a seasonality effect of tunnels in the U.S. So if you compare to '23, U.S. was a very strong year in U.S. for tunneling and flooring in America, where we see this tunnel projects. And it's simply timing of this tunnel project, less now in '25 some -- '24, some shifting to '25. So you will see then, again, tunnel in the U.S. business going up. So these are a couple of the variables that are playing out short term, while on the long term we keep on winning good projects in India, in China, focusing now more on Middle East, but also some nice one in Europe.

Okay, clear. And I just wanted to come back to China RR. I understand the situation in terms of utilization. But if you have more capacity available and you're moving from trucks to PCR, previously at those high utilization rates, you could be very picky, which was very good for your margins. Now you're actually going to have to chase volume. What's that going to do with your margins? It's pretty obvious, I think, but is that baked into your 2024 guidance? Or is that something that could play out in the longer term? Or do you have mitigation actions in place in mind?

Yes. So on the -- so for '24 that's baked in. So with what we see in the market, I think the landing point of December is still, but I think what we're spending in October, November is in the right direction. So there also, we see -- we are very -- we don't go for volume, but in the market situation where you have this overcapacity, you need to balance it, correct? We do also some price movements there in certain segments where we have the added value of this UT, ST monofilament. So there are some segments where we still have -- despite a market with overcapacity and price aggressiveness, we have the opportunity to basically get some better margin. Now I think the question more is going into '25 and beyond. So in that competitive landscape, and that's for the whole RR business is basically continue to drive operational excellence, manufacturing excellence, while at the same time, working on this mix improvements. So I think summarizing '24 baked in, '25 will remain a competitive -- a very competitive field to play in. That's not different than the last couple of years, correct? And it's up to us to drive the right levers and to protect the value creation. But also at the same time, now we are intensifying our discussion on what's the next chapter for the tire industry on innovation. But of course, this is a long-term play and it's not something '25, '26.

Just one follow-up on that last remark. I was actually going to ask you, we know about strong tensile, ultra tensile. You recently announced the step-up, the next generation of that technology. Is that something we should take into account in terms of the driver for growth in 2025? Or would that be way too early? Or is that more of a 2026, 2027 story?

And then you specifically talk about the greet steel or the mega tensile?

Mega tensile and the other product.

So you mean the monofilament?

Correct.

So typically, what you have to see, this is certainly a driver for growth on the volumes and market share in those segments. But typically, in the tire industry, this is a stepped approach. This is a stepped approach of application in the tires. This is certainly what we have to do as a market leader in terms of innovation with our customers. But I think you have to see it in a gradual growth and not a steep growth.

Okay. And just taking a step back, and that is my final question. You have targets for 2026 of generating over 50% of sales from sustainable solutions. Where do you think you'll end up in 2024?

Yes. So top line, so we have been right -- and remember the figures in terms of -- it is Bekaert globally, correct? -- The total RR, it's your question, Martijn?

Yes, that's for Bekaert as a whole.

Bekaert as a whole. I thought we were at 36% and 38%, but it's not really on top of my mind. I don't quote me on that one in line with the trajectory to get to the target, but let me -- let us confirm it and make sure it's coming your way.

Conscious time and coming up to the hour. Yes, Alexander, if you've got a quick one.

Yes. It's a quick one. It's on basically specialty business. Just if you -- because you mentioned Dramix, could you just remind us what's the premium you can ask for 4D and 5D versus 3D because for an outsider, it always looks like a small change in the fiber composition. So...

These are the performance and the value proposition is pretty different. So top of my mind, 20%, 30%.

Okay. And there's no competition offering that here?

Limited because we have our patent IP playing out. So in that segment, we have less competition than in the 3D loose fibers.

Excellent well, with no further questions, we'll draw stumps there. Thank you all for your attendance.

Thanks for attending. Have a nice day.