Oil and Gas Development Company Limited ($OGDC)
Earnings Call Transcript · May 4, 2026
Highlights from the call
Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC:PK) reported its financial results for the March quarter of fiscal year 2026. The company highlighted a significant operational milestone with oil production surpassing 40,000 barrels per day for the first time in 6.5 years. Revenue and earnings details were not explicitly provided in the transcript. Management did not provide specific guidance changes but indicated operational improvements and future production enhancements. The stock could be positively influenced by the operational achievements and future production potential.
Main topics
- Operational Milestones: OGDC achieved a significant milestone with oil production crossing 40,000 barrels per day, a first in 6.5 years, despite historical declines. Management highlighted this as a 'huge achievement.'
- Production Capacity and Curtailment: Current production is 40,034 barrels of oil and 769 million scf of gas, with potential to increase to 42,000 barrels and 810 million scf once curtailment issues are resolved. Management noted, 'my overall capacity to produce is more, but we are fixing a few of the operational issues.'
- Seismic and Technological Advancements: OGDC has procured state-of-the-art seismic systems, enhancing data quality and operational efficiency. The company is the only one in Pakistan with this technology, which is GPS-directed.
- Reserve Replacement Ratio: The reserve replacement ratio stands at 153% for 9 months, with an even higher 240% for owned and operated portfolios. This indicates strong reserve replenishment.
- Receivables and Financial Concerns: There was a 'slight deterioration in receivables,' with collections at 87% compared to over 120% in the previous quarter. This is attributed to reduced collections from power companies.
Key metrics mentioned
- Oil Production: 40,034 barrels per day (Surpassed 40,000 barrels for the first time in 6.5 years)
- Gas Production: 769 million scf per day (Potential to increase to 810 million scf with resolved curtailment)
- Reserve Replacement Ratio: 153% (9 months, 240% for owned and operated portfolios)
- Receivables Collection: 87% (Down from over 120% in the previous quarter)
OGDC's operational achievements and future production plans present a positive outlook for the company. The resolution of curtailment issues and successful implementation of technological advancements could further enhance production capacity. However, financial concerns regarding receivables and ongoing operational challenges pose risks. Investors should monitor the resolution of these issues and the company's ability to meet its production targets as key catalysts for future performance.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesThank you, everyone, for joining us today in this analyst call of OGDCL. We are very thankful to the CFO, Anas Farook, who candidly accepted our request for holding this call for the financial results of the March quarter for fiscal year '26. So just before we start the session just a few SOPs, we have joined international investors as well. We'll try to keep our communication language in English. There will be a brief walk through of the results by the CFO and then we'll open the floor for Q&A by both raise your hand and chat option. So over to you, Anas, sir.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesThank you very much, all for joining in. A quick introduction. My name is Muhammad Farook, I am the CFO of OGDCL. I met most of you, but I met some of you, but I'm sure you must have heard from me on various aspects. We will -- before we dive into this, I'm sure you have a lot of questions. Before we dive into this, I have just a few highlights for your information. which I think would be useful for you for this quarter itself and maybe going forward, give you some direction to where what we are looking at. First of all, we injected Baragzai. I think everybody is aware of that. We injected Baragzai on April -- in April, we had announced a discovery of 5,300, we ended up with 6,000 plus in the first trial and 18 million scf of gas. That was the first one, which was extremely important as far as this is concerned. Just give me a moment. OGDCL's well production -- oil production crossed 40,000 barrels after 6.5 years. And that is a huge achievement, especially considering the fact that we have had substantial decline over a number of years and all the way that, that -- and everybody keeps on asking, and obviously, on that basis, we value our value investments and we value our business. So that is another one, which was something which was extremely important to us. The other thing which from an operational perspective is important is how we run our business. So we create multiple wells in South of Pakistan, in 12 days, in 20 days. That's a significant departure from what we have been doing in the South in the past. brings us in line with we use new technology basically which brings us in line with the best of the best in the market. And we plan to continue using these services going forward, basically reduce time. We have procured state-of-the-art systems for our seismic, which we have deployed in for this. These are seismic systems if nobody is aware that they are not by any of the lines, they are GPS directed. So state-of-the-art recently, introduced into Pakistan, and I think we are the only company who has it as of now. So that will basically increase our cost and effectiveness and bring us superior data quality. We have signed a water injection facility contract, with SMM France, that came out with the newspaper. This will basically enhance our oil recovery initiative slot we ask as to what you're doing, then there basically trying to increase our oil through water injection. The last but not the least from this is that our reserve replacement ratio for 9 months stands at 153% and I only look at our own and operated portfolio, which is only what OGDCL either owned it or upgrade it, we have actually a reserve replacement ratio of 240%. That substantial, we will have this kind of ratio even investing and thanks to part of this ratio and very soon in this year. And we'll gone on and we are very hopeful of that particular also. As far as the financial is concerned, I think you always all looked at the financials, financials are pretty standard. Nothing extraordinary in the. The thing I think, concerned you guys was a slight deterioration in our receivables. I'm sure you guys have asked questions to ask on that. But before we go into -- get into the financials, we need to understand I need to just give you, again, a few numbers, which I think might be important to you. And there's on the operation fund. If you look at my production or let's look at -- let's all of my operational indicators as compared to last year. I have done more 2D seismic, almost 170% from last year. But 3D seismic has gone down, but I expect to catch it up in the last quarter, and we're expecting more than 100% as somewhere to last year. Our wells, we had only done 4 wells in this particular 9-month period. We have done 10 and we're looking to double the wells in the next quarter because facilities are already ready, et cetera, et cetera, and the spudding will basically stop. For production, as of now, I am more than 100% on daily production as compared to last year, 9 months, comparison of crude oil with curtailment. And it is important to note that the curtailment last year was relatively less as compared to this year. So if you really want to compare our numbers, then you should compare it without curtailment. So crude oil without curtailment for 9 months, average was 32,800 barrels. In this 9 months, it is 35,500 barrels. Gas was 750 million stops of gas, we are at 789. And LPG is 709 metric tons for the 9 months, and we are at 701, which is approximately 99%. And that basically shows that we have actually managed to correct the decline or assess or bring the decline back. It's not that the decline has reduced. It's basically because we are building new things to basically keep the production going. Our forecasts for the year are even better because we are looking at reduced curtailment because of the war and that actually, unfortunately has not been good for the country, but has helped us basically realize our total financial. Although we are still facing a little bit of curtailment, but curtailment is still prepared to be reduced. On the financial side, we have seen a little bit of production in your collection of receivables. We are approximately 87% as compared to more than 120-odd percent or 40% last quarter. Last quarter, if you remember, there was an anomaly where we received tremendous from settlement of more than PKR 24 billion. So that obviously skewed the percentage on the higher side. But in this quarter, we have had a reduction in recovery from. So there's a slight collection of receivables from power on the CPP AG, we are following it up with them, and we hope that this is going to get resolved -- not get resolved. start getting more sums from them going forward. So that was a brief update. I know that I said it would be a brief update, but unfortunately, it became a little bit longer. So that's all from me. I'm happy to take your questions.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesAll right. Thank you, Anas, for this brief overview of the latest developments. So we'll first start with the. So I'll unmute, Ali.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsI wanted to ask you a couple of questions earlier, and maybe it was a bit unclear to me. is with regards to lowering of curtailment. Can you share where you are currently in terms of oil and gas production? And do you see further upside from these levels where you are today? .
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesAs of today, I have produced 40,034 barrels of oil and 769 million scf of gas and 811 metric tonnes of LPG. This is my today's production, which has been curtailed by 2,671 barrels of oil, 53 million scf of gas and 21 million tonnes of LPG. If you add these numbers up, I'm approximately 42,000 barrels of oil, approximately 810 million scf of gas and approximately 830 metric tonnes of LPG. That is my current producing capacity. So that is what it is. Obviously, there are certain operational issues, which we are facing, which does not pertain to curtailment, but my actual capacity is even higher. So once we resolve those, and I'll give you a classic example. Recently, you must have heard about. used to produced approximately 7 million scf. Now we have worked over it and it is producing 21 million scf. But can only produce through and capacity -- plant capacity is constrained. So we are working on that to basically get solutions to solve that particular problem. So as I said, my overall capacity to produce is more, but we are fixing a few of the operational issues, which are there besides the curtailment.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSo just to clarify, you're at about 40,000 barrels -- actual production today is close to 40,000 barrels and 760 mm scf of gas. Do you see -- I guess the question is there is potential for some upside risk from here as well. And do you think that curtailment -- I mean, is it a straight-line ramp-up of production capacity when you're able to deliver? Or is there a time period where you need to reramp up capacity, so to speak?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesNo. We -- this particular curtailment, it's simple ramp up.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesJust to clarify to the Ali's question, so I had a follow-up on this. But you just mentioned that 40,000 barrels of oil you are producing right now, while there is still curtailment of 2,071 barrels of oil per day.
Muhammad Farook
Executives2,671.
Unknown Analyst
Analysts2,671. And are you expecting this volume to come online, maybe next quarter, by next quarter or maybe within a few weeks? This pertains to -- and this pertains to which field, if you can also mention this...
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesSo yes, this is basically from Bettani and where there is a slight concern -- as a fact, there's an operation concern with SNGPL as to their capacity to absorb this particular thing our pressures. So actually, contextually speaking, the way it had been structured is that with coming in with fields from and from ours, which includes Bettani, et cetera, coming in, the line which is available with SNGPL slightly has lesser capacity as to what we can take. So the pressures from -- and now obviously, we are also partners in So pressures of -- from gas, from the JV is slightly higher than Bettani. So the first injection comes from there. So as soon as this particular thing is resolved, we will be looking at that. So if Bettani primarily 2300 barrels and 300 barrels from...
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. So when you are saying when this issue will be resolved, so you are referring to that pipeline capacity issue? And this will be -- so is that a medium term issue or a short-term issue or a long-term issue that you are looking at because the pipeline...
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesSo yes, let me just -- it seems like it's a 6 months or a 9 month issue which will -- it will stay there till for that months, at least 6 months to a year.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsAll of this is going to be resolved. The pipeline capacity will be increased or some other fields may depreciate and then the volumes of these Bettani type of fields coming in. So how this is going to be recovered in next 6 to 9 months because the capacity is capacity?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesSo no, the pipeline will have to be enhanced and that is already known to SNGPL because Bettani has -- the development plan is in place, and we are working on basically getting more wells in Bettani. So -- and obviously, there will be from also et cetera are going to come into play with their full capacity. So the line will have to be enhanced.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesThe next question we'll take from.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsThank you for the elaborate answer on the previous question on Bettani. That was interesting. My question is regarding. The discovery had several reservoirs. I guess that's adding up to very 13,000 barrels per day of oil. Can you give some time lines of how all of that will be brought into production, what sort of CapEx or plant capacity would be needed? Of course, Nashpa used to produce 22,000 barrels per day a few years ago. So I think you'd be able to pump all of that oil quickly, but some guidelines on when can you achieve that higher production level.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesThank you very much. That's a very valid question. So we are producing currently through Nashpa 6,160 barrels of oil. Further appraisal wells are planned from January to December 2027, obviously, and we are looking at our front-end compression at Nashpa to inject into another nearby plant. Plant expansion -- before we actually expand into the plant, we are looking at which is available nearby and using that facility. Then we're looking at expansion in somewhere in 2028 with injections of either one appraisal and 2 development wells. This overall will increase our production of to approximately 22,000 to 25,000 tonnes per day. So you're looking at approximately 2 to 2.5 years.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSorry, did you say total production will be more than 20,000?
Unknown Executive
Executives20,000 to 25,000.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsThis is in addition to Nashpa's original production of 10,000 barrels per day. okay.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesNashpa is on decline. So Nashpa decline is going to be... Just for your information, there are lots of other 3D seismic surveys going on in Nashpa and in the associated areas. is there. So we have new 3D seismic surveys. So we're looking at exporting further in Nashpa. So this is also by the way.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsYes. So just to follow up on this, like you mentioned that in order to achieve 22,000 to 25,000 barrels of oil per day in the next 2 to 2.5 years, you will probably also rely on the existing plant of this is what you mentioned.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesYes.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSo what is the capacity of the plant installed at?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesCapacity is higher, but we will yield this plant to basically pull in a couple of appraisal wells in the which we drill in 2027 and before we start our expansion in 2028. So we'll be using that for a year, 1.5 years. So we have enough capacity in sight to process.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. So 1 follow-up question on We haven't seen anywhere the numbers of reserves, the recoverable reserves. So can you share what is the estimated size of the discovery of the.
Muhammad Farook
Executivesis approximately more than 100 million barrels of oil.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsAnd what about gas?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesWell, that's combined. 100 million barrels of oil equivalent adjusted.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. All right. So okay. start, do you have any further questions or maybe I can... We'll take the next question from Asim Khan.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsI had a couple of questions. Can you elaborate a bit on the curtailment on Bettani. You mentioned that because of the operational issuance at SNGPL you are unable to produce what Bettani's full potential is. But this is very different from the curtailment that we -- our understanding is that is because of the supply pressure from the LNG from Qatar and other areas. So this curtailment is very different from the normal agreement that OGDCL and other companies have been facing. Is that right?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesCurtailment is a very broad board word. work. I mean, curtailment primarily, which you are seeing in newspapers, et cetera, and which you all guys are aware of was primarily because of the LPG pressures. And since the LPG pressures have dropped, you're not seeing curtailment from that perspective. In that, if I -- if you look at that particular thing, just to give you an example, the U.S. and Iran war started on 28th of Feb, High line pressure of LNG, which was there at that particular point of time, we were curtailing approximately 600,000 barrels of oil per day. 138 million scf of gas on 3rd of March, which reduced to 2,520 barrels and 51 million scf of gas on 5th of March, which further declined to approximately to 800 barrels per day and 9 million scf of gas on 14th of April. Now it has gone up again, because at that particular point of time, there was a line issue there, so they could not fund the whole thing. so Bettani was online. So our curtailment went down to as low as 800 barrels per day, right? Now it stands at 2,671 barrels per day. So yes. the answer to that question is that initially primary curtailment and not only from Bettani was due to the LPG pressures, the line pressures which were there. the LNG line pressures. Subsequently, the line pressure is obviously the LNG couldn't come, because it's turned the line pressure is manageable. Now the curtailment is only of a certain area where the 2 fields which have been discovered. And the line which is laid by is not big enough to take all the rest. And that's a very simple sort of answer on that.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesRight. Understood. Okay. My second question was pertaining to annual turnaround. When is turnaround is expected to be completed and when should we see the volumes coming back to normal?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesThe volumes are back to normal.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsVolumes are back to normal, okay. Right. Okay. And this turnaround was completed when, turnaround?
Muhammad Farook
Executives27th of April if I'm not wrong, but don't quote me on that. It's somewhere around that time.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. Understood, understood. Right. And sir, you mentioned an update on KPD project as well that you have signed the contract for water injection. And you've also mentioned in your reports and briefings that OGDCL is expecting additional production of oil about, if I recall correctly, about 1,500 barrels of oil and about, 8,200 Mcfd of gas. So with this water injection, is that target still intact? And in terms of the time lines, can you elaborate when do you expect these additional volumes to kick in?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesCan you just repeat the question, Sorry, I just missed to something else.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. I can repeat that. The question basically pertains to the KPD project. You mentioned earlier that you have signed an agreement for water injection with a French company. So my question was that OGDCL has mentioned previously in its briefings and in its reports as well that it is expecting about an addition incremental production of 1,500 barrels of oil and about 8200 mmc of gas. So would that injection achieve those targets? Or are there any revised targets? And what is the time line for production addition from KPD project?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesSo what you're talking, mixing things, I mean the first thing is that the KPD compression project for which we have told you that we will be expecting approximately 100 million scf of gas, where the down. I mean we made the pressures down. That project has been already been awarded and is delayed because of several issues. It is now expected to come online by the end of this calendar year. So targets remain the same. As far as the water injection, that is a separate project altogether that has a separate time line and has a definite scenario of what we would do. That is water flooding. That is the first one was front end compression. So 2 different things. And as far as the project of water injection is concerned, we have a certain framework through which we will work with these entities. So it is not a short-term sort of thing that when it's going to come into this thing, it is long term and you see the behavior of the wells. So nobody can predict anything as of now.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsRight. So the time line for KPD for now is about by end of this calendar year, right? Okay.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesThat is the completion project.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsFor the completion project. right? And one more question on the production side. If you can comment on the current status of, you are not operators, but you are partners there. So if you can comment on what sort of production or development plan is for and what sort of production actions should we expect from that side?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesSee, there are a lot of things which are being considered there actively. We're looking at what sort of options are there and how -- what sort of discoveries coming to play. We're drilling wells. It's too early to say what we will expect. But obviously, there is a very good retention there. and we're doing some detailed technical studies there, which will basically give us a very good idea as to what sort of expansion and what sort of relation facilities will. So at this particular point of time, I would not be able to give you any numbers, but we are looking at that from a technical perspective and seeing that it's going to be developed expeditiously and effectively. That we utilize will have utilized the full capacity and the results which are in there.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesI have a follow-up on this. So since last 2 weeks, we are not seeing any volumes of and field, both are from the North Waziristan in the weekly PPIS numbers. So if you can confirm what is the current level of production, maybe the numbers are not reported or is there any technical issue if you can clarify?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesI don't have the numbers off hand on -- as to what...
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesBut those fields are operational. This is what you can confirm.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesYes.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOver to you, Asif.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsRight. Okay. Just on the same thought, you mentioned that Bettani is unable to produce at times because of the higher injection pressure of Waziristan regions. So in terms of the development plan and production increase from Waziristan is SNGPL at this point in time, ready to say, for example, if several reports are coming in from side that probably the production addition from Waziristan would be 200 Mcf gas, So is SNGPL in this position to supply this additional volume? Or would they need to do some investments in terms of pipeline there in order to increase that and achieve that production addition?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesGood question, I think you need to have a briefing. Yes, obviously, there will have to do augmentations of the lines. And that is always...
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsUnderstand. My last question is a bit on the pricing side. Usually the pricing between and the physical contracts that were being delivered was very small, about a couple of dollars per barrel difference used to exist, but because of the recent situation, these -- the difference between the spot deliveries and the futures contracts have widened considerably about in the range of $10 to $20 per barrel. I just wanted to get clarity on this that when the local fields are being priced, are they on the future prices? Or are they on the physical or spot prices?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesPhysical prices.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. And you mentioned the last 100 million barrels for right? barrels of oil equivalent.
Muhammad Farook
Executives100 million barrels of oil equivalents.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesThe next question we'll take from Mohammad Ali from securities.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsI'm Mohammad Ali from Securities. My first question was regarding the situation. We've seen in the news, there is torrential rainfall and the has completely vanished from the weekly data. So when is the production expected to revive, and my next question is regarding recruiting. We saw the September 2025 update that the project on financing was 7.7 billion. So then we saw announcing that it has slowed down. So what is the update regarding that? And is the air been increased? And what will be the numbers? These are my questions.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesI think you need to ask the questions from, I'm not -- this particular thing, obviously, I mean, it has disappeared, whether it's disappeared or not disappeared, et cetera. These are very specific questions, if you want, in the slide to me and I will exactly find out from our technical guys what has really happened. But we are producing from there. Otherwise, our production numbers would have gone down actually. So as far as equity is concerned, as we mentioned in the financials that we are working with Barrick to basically look at that. We are very hopeful. Work is ongoing by the way. The civil work continues. There is discussions between the partners, which I'm not in a position to share right now. As for the cost, et cetera, I think it's too early to comment on that as to what the expected cost will be there, but as far as bank line, et cetera, are concerned, we are in constant discussions with Barrick. Barrick has already shown its commitment that it will continue, and we also have shown our commitment that will continue. Because it's a once in a lifetime project. A year or so delay. it's not -- does not delay the whole...
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesSo the next question will get from Asif Jalal.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsThis is Asif Jalal from Maple Capital. I have a couple of questions. First of all, could you please provide an update with respect to the windfall levy case. I understand a hearing was scheduled on April 29th. Any key developments or outcomes from that? Secondly, in the March quarter, trade debt increased by approximately PKR 15 billion while receivables from companies rose by only PKR 2 billion to PKR 5 billion. You did mention that receivables increased from Bosch Power and Could you please further elaborate the exact amounts that are owed from in power plant?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesSo the windfall levy case, I think, is a case which has been fired by and I think they are the best person, to update you on that because they are the ones who are currently -- sorry, windfall levy, sorry may my apologies. Windfall levy, the case is still ongoing. I think it's a subcu case. It will be very -- it will not be proper for me to comment on that right now. The hearing is still ongoing. So I'll skip that particular question. As far as the other question is concerned, where you said about collections, we have approximately PKR 20 billion receivable from which come via CPPAG. The collections were limited in the first quarter of this particular calendar year or the third quarter of this financial year. And as you rightly pointed out, the gas companies have -- there is hardly any change. The collections are good. The only changes because of this and we're working very closely with CPPAG who pay in turn we get paid. The collection for April is much better than the correction of all the quarters combined by the way.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. Since we have spoken on the windfall levy, it's going to be clear, if you can also share some light on the Super tax calculation, the decision was announced a quarter ago and the changes are likely to be reflected in the annual accounts for E&P companies. And broadly, this has been perceived that E&Ps will be beneficially that verdict. So from the financial modeling point of view on behalf of all analysts, if you can share what percentage of products we should charge going forward in our assumptions. If not 10%, then what percentage?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesI am not an analyst, and I am not maintaining any models. So how can I comment on that? But it's a good question as far as this particular thing is concerned where the decision was announced, the decision specially mentioned that the commissioners are responsible for checking if maximum liability has been reached. We have -- as we expected, we have received notices for almost all of our PCAs and we're looking at the commissioners as to basically make sure that this is undertaking as per the 5th Schedule of income tax ordinance 2025. As far as Supertax going forward, I don't think from a perspective of this thing for your calculations or assumptions that we'll be able to give you the exact number of let's say 1% or 2% or whatever is the delta if there is any delta. So if I were you, I would not take anything as supertax.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. Now questions we'll be taking from the chat. So again, the question is on the super tax that you have addressed. So when we can expect the reversals of the super tax provisions? If you can just answer this part of question.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesThat is very good question. That will only depend once we have some clarity from the commissioner on how some of the plant getting closed up there. And I think nothing is getting closed as of now. It's just...
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesIs there any timeline given by the commissioners or by the court or your internal time lines by when you have to complete the assessment of all the PCAs with the commissioner?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesNo, there is no time line. Each company is getting its own notices in the E&P and since we have a number of PCAs more than 50 odd we have for each of them. So I cannot give you a time line as such of when it will get completed. We having discussions on this based on the fact that we have all these uncertainties, I'm sure I cannot comment, but I'm sure the auditors will be on those...
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. So the probability of happening this by the end of this fiscal year is also remote below probability.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesYou're asking me number, yes, most likely, yes.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. So the other question is related to can you share any information with regard to the oil refinery being set up in Gwadar? This was according to a news source mentioned in the chat box. Any development on that front you are aware of?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesI am not aware of any such thing.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. With new discoveries and the reserve replacement ratio of 153%, what is the expected time line and capital expenditure required to bring these reserves into commercial production?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesSee, the biggest reserve replacement was already bringing that into production. We have already spoken to you about time lines from there and other also, the reserve replacement ratios of couple of them, we already got that on line, nearby fields. So it's not all as you mentioned, I mean, it's -- and we've already got them into production. Overall, is concerned, I've already mentioned the detailed of that.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesAlso, it's been long time since we have heard about the gas sector. Last time when we spoke, you mentioned that the plan was at advanced level of discussion. So if you can share what is the latest update on the resolution plan, we also head minister also mention that the plan is now submitted to the. If you can share some light on that.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesI think the minister has shared enough light on that, that he has said has been submitted to the which is actually the reality. And next only minority shareholders will be as has been discussed in the past, it has to be a balanced plant as we have already mentioned in the past. And balance plan has gone. But besides that as to what exactly is happening between IMS and -- but one thing I have to say is that the government is looking very closely and basically monitoring and basically start liquidating this. Tomorrow or day tomorrow, that I don't know, but it should be very soon.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesYou mentioned earlier that we might hear about a new discovery possibly this year. Could you please clarify which region this would be in and how much CapEx you plan for it? This is a question on the chatbox.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesThat's a discovery in which we are drilling and we are near completion. That has very prospectivity as far as exploration is concerned, and as you know, this particular business is all about risks. And no matter how comfortable we feel, we cannot comment on it as to what sort of CapEx will be required, et cetera, to develop that. But the cost is substantial, it's $15 million, $20 million because it's in, et cetera. So actually, has mentioned that what is the status of the well, which is exactly what we are looking at.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesWe have question what's your view on the receivables going forward, which you have already addressed partly. The other part of the question is during March 2026, Pakistan only 2 LNG cargoes in April, why has the curtailment not impacted production numbers. That production numbers have also increased. You can just clarify.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesI don't understand the question. Only 2 LNG cargo in April which is fine. Why has the curtailment not impacted on the gas production numbers?
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesMaybe he is trying to ask why the gas numbers have not gone up significantly because the industry curtailment number was 300 to 400 mmcft.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesSo it has gone up.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesYes. Exactly. Just clarity. So the next question is, okay, so who you are supplying oil. Is it being supplied to refinery?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesYes.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay, can you...
Muhammad Farook
Executives[indiscernible].
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesCan you please share the CapEx for 2027 and 2028?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesYes, we're reviewing it right now. Cannot comment on it right now, but we're substantially looking...
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. The question is if there would be any reversal of the super tax. Will this be recognized gradually in parts or recorded as a lump sump amount?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesIt will be -- the principle is the same for each of them, but it depends on each PCA. So once PCA get finalized, it could be in parts. But it could be a lump sum also because there are a lot of PCAs which come under the same regime. So you might see a large lump sum also depending on which petroleum policies PCA has been finalized.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesCan you also share some light on the ADNOC block, when that block will come online? And also, is there any change in the operational status of that particular offshore block because of the ongoing work?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesThere is no change as far as ADNOC block is concerned. We are still looking at this study of and we still expects production to be in 2028.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesAre you also planning to drill other wells in that particular block because one of the E&P companies also mentioned that there is a possibility for further exploration in that area?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesIt is a possibility, but that is too early to say.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. I think we have already addressed all of the questions. Just for your closing remarks, if you can mention what percentage growth in volumes of oil and gas we should assume for next fiscal year? I mean because there was a target by the OGDCL 50,000 barrels a couple of quarters back in the newspaper I think it was referred to the OGDCL CEO but if you can just share some light on the overall outlook of the OGDC, especially for next fiscal year in your closing remarks. Over to you.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesObviously, if my boss says that it's 50,000, that is 50,000. It cannot be anything else. But yes, as we mentioned, I mean this is a very real target. I mean we're looking at 42,000 barrels of oil production right now, 40,000 and 2,000 and we have got a very big chunk of heavy oil, which we are basically working with as far as is concerned. Now, by December, we are hoping -- we are looking at various initiatives. Just to give you a small example, we said that we were looking at production optimization. Now we have optimized our production in a lot of areas. Just to give you a bit of flavor of what exactly we did and how much production actually is adding to optimization, the reason I want to give you that background is because we are moving one step ahead of what we had promised. So if I was to look at my production profile what our production optimization drive from July '23 to March '26 and we all witnesses to that from our financial statements. We added approximately 2,400 barrels in '23-'24. We continued adding, and '24-'25, we added another 4,000 barrels to 6,800 barrels. In the current year, we are from an optimization drive, we are looking at an outlook of approximately 11,700 barrel that's another 5,000 barrels on top of that. So out of our 42,000, 11,000 is coming from optimization. So you can understand how important optimization is for us. We are working on certain fields and I think is a classic example where we produce on a lower choke 21 million, but we cannot produce it in company as of now because of plant's, let's say, capacities. But we're looking at that particular area especially and we are calling what we call production optimization 2.0, where we are looking at various -- not only looking at optimization, but in the existing field, looking at some very deep potential or exploration potentials in these fields in the area of et cetera, et cetera. So we have embarked on that particular journey already. For 30,000 barrels, to answer your question very directly, we are looking at 48,000 barrels if there is no production by December '26.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. Perfect. So just last question in the chat box. We saw in the oil and gas policies of Pakistan, the crude oil price is generally benchmarked to Persian Gulf. So can you just mention what is the best benchmark for all of your oil fields? Is it Brent? Is it Arab lite? Is it Dubai oil? Is it Oman oil? And when we are saying oil prices for the calculation of revenues, whether that formula in the policies I also mentioned that the cost should also be part of the revenue? Very recently, we saw the prices of freight charges also gone up, insurance charges also gone up. So does that also help increase in your revenues?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesThat's a very limited amount of that particular shipping but we -- yes, the freight is part of it but our primary, Arab light delivered at Dubai and Oman ports. And that's I think I explained to one of your colleagues recently it is price of deliveries of Arab light at Dubai and Oman ports. And obviously, it is governed by each of the policies. In some we get only 50% of the windfall. In some, we don't get any. In some, we have a ceiling and a base price. In Nashpa, we don't have any ceiling, but we have a gas based price windfall. So the indicator, which is the best would be that you take the realized prices of the previous years and start comparing it, so if I was to look at that, there will be a discount rate which is available. If you just give me, so crude basket, we take a Brent and WTI and Dubai, et cetera, for our comparison and our realized prices. By quarter, if I take a comparison of this 2026, our market price was 75, and we ended up at a realized price of 64. Last quarter, the market was 65, we ended up at 55. Before that the market was 70, we ended up at 58. But the more we produce at Nashpa and the prices go high because we don't have a limit, barrel of oil pricing will go up. Sales is going to go up.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesIn the context of pricing with Brent, whenever the oil prices increases beyond a certain limit, given policy, if oil prices are going above $100, the incremental to the company is much lower in the gas prices. So is there any similar like you mentioned, there is no ceiling on the but what about other fields? Is there any limitation, any heavy particular which contributes high to your revenues in terms of the oil prices or oil production?
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesOil production basically is Nashpa, right? [indiscernible].
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesSame goes for the...
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesSame goes for, yes.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. So I think that's it. We have already crossed 1 hour time limit. We still have a couple of questions, but we can wait for the next quarter and we'll come back again with the same session to the same audience probably. So thank you so much, Anas sir, for taking out your time and agreeing to our request for holding this call. Once again, thanks to all the participants for taking out your time and showing interest in OGDCL. Thank you so much, sir.
Muhammad Farook
ExecutivesThank you very much. I hope you buy stocks [indiscernible] because we're going nowhere, but thank you.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesAll right, sir. Thank you. Bye.
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