Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. (OET) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, and welcome to OETs Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results Presentation. We will begin shortly. Aristidis Alafouzos, CEO; and Iraklis Sbarounis, CFO of Okeanis Eco Tankers will take you through the presentation. [Operator Instructions]. I would like to advise you that this session is being recorded. Iraklis will begin the presentation now.

Welcome to the presentation of Okeanis Eco Tankers' results for the fourth quarter of 2024. We will discuss matters that are forward-looking in nature, and actual results may differ from the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements. Please read through the relevant disclaimer on Slide 2. So starting on Slide 4 in the executive summary. I'm pleased to present the highlights of the fourth quarter of 2024. While Q4 fell short of the market's expectations a few months back, it closes a year with fairly healthy commercial and financial results. We achieved fleet-wide time charter equivalent of about $39,000 per vessel per day. Our VLCCs were at $38,500 and our Suezmaxes at $39,500. We report adjusted EBITDA of $37 million, adjusted net profit of $13 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.41. Continuing to deliver on our commitment to distribute value to our shareholders, our Board declared an 11th consecutive distribution in the form of a dividend of $0.35 per share. Total distributions over the last 4 quarters stood at $3 per share or 89% of our earnings for the year. In November, we successfully completed the 5-year dry dock for the Nasus Danusa, concluding a 6-vessel 2024 VLCCs private project. We look into 2028 with only our [ 220 ] build Suezmaxes, this will undergo the 5-year dry dock sometime in the second or third quarter. So on Slide 5, we show the detail of our income statement for the quarter and full year. For the year in 2024, our TCE revenue stood at $262 million with daily fleet YTC of $53,000 per day, $56,000 on the VLCCs and $49,000 in the Suezmaxes. EBITDA was approximately $204 million and net income was just shy of $109 million or $3.38 per share. Moving on to Slide 6 and our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $54 million of cash. Our balance sheet debt continues to amortize by approximately $12 million every quarter, now standing at $646 million as of year-end. On Slide 7, we recap our main driver behind our operational and commercial success and one of our key competitive advantages, our fleet. Our 14 vessels all built at first class yards in Korea and Japan, have an average age of 5.4 years. That is the youngest crude oil tanker fleet amongst these peers. And we're also the only pure eco and fully scrubber fitted fleet. These elements allow us to set a benchmark about the spot market established by conventional or mixed fleet. Slide 8. Moving on to our capital structure. After a busy 12 months, we're now in a position to reap the benefits of the improved pricing achieved by refinancing most of our vessels. Having improved our margins by 130 basis points across 12 assets, our interest expense starts to show material improvement in Q4 and going forward. We have successfully set our robust balance sheet with added flexibility and extended maturities. Our book leverage stands at 59%, while our market adjusted net LTV is approximately 40%. Our financings are mix of traditional mortgage-backed banking loans as well as sale and leasebacks, and our financiers are balanced with both traditional European shipping banks as well as Asian banks and leasing houses. We are particularly happy to have relationships to know these markets. This gives us flexibility in the future and allows us to develop and strengthen relationships. We look forward to next year when we will have the opportunity to refinance the last outliers within our capital structure, the Nicos Vina and Vistros De Espotico, a massive opportunity for further improvement of our breakeven costs. In the meantime, while we're not active in pursuit of further deals, we're always going to lookout for accretive opportunities. If one arises in this competitive financing market, and it makes sense we will not hesitate to take advantage of it. I'll now pass the presentation to Aristidis for the commercial and market outlook.

Thank you, Iraklis. Let me start by saying that Q4 was less interesting than we expected, but at least Q1 of 2025 began on a different note. In early Q1, the Biden administration significantly expanded the sanctions framework, which impacted more vessels, Russian banks and charters. Almost immediately, the market rebounded quickly and significantly, a topic we will discuss in more detail later on. However, Q4 ended relatively weekly with crude markets lacking their usual seasonality. During Q4 and specifically in November, as Iraklis mentioned earlier, we successfully completed the 5-year dry dock for Nisos Danusa, making -- marking the conclusion of our 6 vessels VLCC dry dock projects. Given the crude market weakness, we took the opportunity to clean up 1 more VLCC and repositioned here in the West. Again, they captured a higher earnings spot voyage for backhaul that we like doing to bring our ships to the West. We also continued to strategically position our vessels in the West with selective Suezmax voyages to the East to maximizing earnings potential. As a result, our Suezmax outperformed our VLCCs in the fourth quarter. Despite the continued seasonal weakness in Q3, we achieved a fleet-wide TCE rate of $39,000 per operating day for the fourth quarter and $52,900 for operating days for the full year of 2024. While utilization stood at 98% in Q4 and 97% for the full year, demonstrating efficient vessel deployment. If we compare our earnings with peers that have already reported Q4 results, our outperformance for the year stood at 19% for the VLCCs and 29% for the Suezmaxes. Now going into Q1, and as mentioned earlier, the expanded sanctions framework has significantly improved the market. The Chinese, Indians and Turkish buyers became aware of using sanction ships and most specifically of buying Russian, and Iranian crude oil, in general. As a result, we started sourcing alternative crudes, leading with India and China actively importing to West Africa, the Middle East and the U.S. Gulf and Brazil. This shift has notably improved market rate and sentiment. In addition to the above, continued growth in the Brazilian crude production is boosting demand for long-haul voyages. As far as our fleet is concerned, fleet triangulation remains a priority, ensuring we maximize latent legs and optimize vessel deployment. We have also repositioned 1 of our Suezmaxes to the clean product trade, allowing us to capture premium earnings while repositioning her to the West after her front haul voyage to the ESB fixed in Q4. Given the development so far in Q1 of 2025, we have fixed 81% of VLCC's spot days at $39,100 per day, and 77% of Suezmax spot days at $33,400 per day. With the ongoing OPEC plus production policies and the new U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iran, we see further upside potential for tonne mile demand in the near term. Today, we are earning around $50,000 per day on the VLCCs and $45,000 to $60,000 on the Suezmax. Many of the stronger pictures we concluded after mid-January when the market terms will reflect in the last part of our Q1 earnings as well as in our Q2. Similarly to the full year 2024 results and based on peers that have reported earnings, our Q1 performance on fixed base and 7% outperformance for the VLCCs and 39% for the Suezmax. As we now to Slide 12. OAT remains the only public listed pure play eco scrubber-fitted tanker platform, enabling us to consistently outperform the market. Our VLCC and Suezmax fleets have delivered higher TCEs than our peer group for multiple years. reinforcing our competitive advantage. In 2024, OETs VLCC significantly outperformed period, demonstrating the earnings power of our modern fleet and the strong performance of our commercial fleet. It is important to note that for Q4 2024, we have new guidance figures for peers that have not reported yet. We believe the gap will widen even further once actual rates are published. All in all, our chartering team, fuel-efficient vessels, scrubber advantage and strategic trading patterns continue to differentiate OE from the volatile market. Now let's discuss the market outlook and the latest market dynamics. On Slide 13, we see the crude tanker market is experiencing structural supply and balance, driven by an aging fleet and low newbuilding orders. By 2028, over 700 VLCCs and Suezmaxes will be more than 20 years old, while only around 200 vessels are scheduled for delivery in the same period, indicating a further tightening of supply. Notably, this calculation does not even account for vessels over the age of 15 years old, which will be less efficient. And by 2028, will represent 40% to 50% of both segments. Additionally, the expanded sanction list now includes almost 10% of both VLCC and Suezmax fleet, while 20% of the total VLCC and Suezmax fleet operate in a dark gray fleet and limited yard availability and rising shipbuilding costs, fleet expansion remains significantly constrained. Also, if sanction enforcement continues, the sanction fleet can double as we calculate 10% of the fleet is engaged in OFAC sanctionable activity, especially involved in an Iranian and Venezuelan business, which is also almost exclusively reliant on the VLCC. Against this backdrop, OET's modern fleet and ECO positions us well to capitalize on the supply constraints that come. Now moving on to Slide 14. Crude demand is expected to outpace supply in 2025, driving increased tonne miles and higher fleet utilization. Key agencies forecast a continued recovery in oil demand, particularly from Asia. China had positive data with strong traveling around the Lunar New Year and the new record corporate borrowing in January. Refinery realignments and new sourcing routes are leading to longer voyages and greater tanker utilization. Geopolitical factors sanctions and shifting trade routes are further strengthening demand for modern compliance fleet like OET. We expect these factors to support higher fleet utilization and firmer rates in the coming quarters. From Slide 15 to 18, we aim to illustrate the significance of sanctioned exposed trades and it's potential impact on the conventional fleet in light of the latest wave of sanctions. The shadow fleet has expanded due to sanctions on Russia and Iran and Venezuela. Approximately 20% of the global tanker fleet is now engaged in sanction trade with 10% already being on the OPEC list, effectively reducing the supply of vessels available in the conventional market. As compliance measures tighten, compliance fleets will be more positioned to capture premium rates driven by higher utilization. We believe the market divide between compliant and noncompliant fleets will continue to widen, favoring modern, efficient and transparent operations. As mentioned earlier, India, China and Turkey are increasingly moving away from sanctioned exposed trade, seeking compliant crude from alternative routes. This shift both tonne mile demand and utilization of the conventional fleet. Slide 16 focuses on Iran. And given the new administration in the U.S., a potential decrease in Iranian exporestaurant levels seen during the previous Trump administration could push conventional VLCC fleet utilization above 90%, which has historically led to very strong tanker market rates. To conclude the presentation, a reduction in Russian and Iranian exports could generate a significant increase in demand for modern planned VLCCs. If all Russian and Iranian barrels are lost and replaced by long hauld VLCC voyages, we estimate a need for an additional 20 to 60 VLCCs. The current fleet size order book and utilization of close to 88% did not support such an increase, reinforcing the bullish outlook for compliant modern fleet. OET is optimally positioned to capitalize on these ships and generate strong cash flow for shareholders. During the Q4 softness, OET delivered a strong full year performance and remains well positioned for 2025. Market fundamentals remain supportive with tight supply, increasing tonne miles and geopolitical shifts working in our favor. We will continue to optimize our fleet, maximize utilization and capitalize on strategic advantages. With that, we thank you for your time and happy to take any questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Liam Burke of B. Riley.

In your prepared remarks, you laid out a number of strong reasons why there'll be tight capacity for the VLCC class going forward. What would you say are some of the positive pressures on Suezmax capacity going forward?

Thank you for your question. A large part of the Suezmax trade -- of the Suezmax -- a large part of the Russian trading fleet right now moving the Russian Barrel uses Suezmax vessels. So over time, if we see further sanctioning of that fleet, it will further tighten the supply of Suezmax vessels. And the age profile on that fleet is very old as well. In addition to that, and I think more importantly, we've seen that with the reduction of interest from Indian and Chinese for buying whether a Russian into the Chinese, Iranian and Venezuelan barrels, it opens the arc for longer haul voyages on asset classes that are less efficient than the VLCC. So you have to look at Suezmaxes. For example, a trend we've seen recently is that there's a big port in the Black Sea control, predominantly by Western oil majors, including Chevron, called CPC. And historically, this port has lifted Aframax and Suezmax and cargoes because nothing larger than a Suezmax can fit laden through the Turkish trade. Because of the tightness, due the lack of purchasing of Iranian and Russian barrels, we've seen that there's been CPC cargoes that are moving again towards Asia. While since the Red Sea close, this trade has completely soft. In January, for example, prior to the -- in February prior to the sanctions on the Russian fleet, there were no cargoes that were sold in the East. While after the sanctions were put on in February, we already have 11 cargoes potentially going East just from this one [ port. So I think we'll see more barrels from whether West Africa, Libya, Algeria, the ] Black Sea moving East on the Suezmaxes. And we're quite constructive on the Suezmax segment.

Great. You talked about a slow start to the first quarter '25. And you announced the fixtures for both the Suez and VLCCs for a partial -- for most of the first quarter. Then you follow by saying that there's strength into the end of the first quarter and into second quarter, which generally, you think a second quarter would -- you see moderation in rates. What do you see into the second quarter is driving the rate momentum here?

All right. Well, I think one thing to understand is that especially on the VLCCs, and if you're fixing longer voyages from the U.S. Gulf, you're going to be working very far ahead. So you're going to be working maybe even a month or a bit longer ahead. So in December -- like in mid December, we were negotiating a cargo that would load in mid through end January and that void would last through Q1. So a weak fixture in Q4 might have little impact on actual Q4 and have a big impact on Q1 and maybe even I mean, if it's around voyage from the U.S. Gulf Beach, we don't do, but it could even lead into Q2. So I think what we were saying is that the fixtures that we fixed after January 15, which was when Biden sanctioned the additional ships and the charters and squeeze the system have improved a lot. But because those fixtures, you're fixing maybe a month in advance from the U.S. Gulf on a VLCC or slightly less on the Suezmax, you'll only start feeling them towards the end of Q1 when the vessel actually lows and discharge, especially with the IFRS accounting principles, and they will roll into Q2 as well. So I think that our earnings for Q1 were also impacted by the IFRS TCE principles, which we have a bigger -- we're impacted at times more because of the slightly smaller fleet than some of our peers who have 50 or 60 ships and 3 or 4 ships having a very bad -- by the principles, how you allocate the income makes a much bigger effect to us.

Our next question is from Bendik Nyttingnes from Clarksons Securities.

So to my understanding, you now have one Suezmax that is cleaned up and that's the only one cleaning in your fleet as of now. Is that correct?

Yes, that's correct.

And I just wanted to ask a bit about the dynamic there because you have been cleaning up several of your VLCCs previously. And how easy is it going to be to switch goes back into the clean trade? Is it easier now that you have cleaned them relatively recent? Or is it going to take the same couple of weeks to get that done?

No. Once you go dirty, the cleaning process is more or less similar. Maybe it's slightly but marginally easier, but I will -- we would allocate the same cost and time when we're budgeting for a voyage.

And for the Suezmax now, do you expect to keep that trading clean? Or is it as the other ones sort of opportunistically positioned in the clean market for a single voyage?

No, we basically sailed at this port in Asia. We had this clean opportunity. We compare it with the crude opportunity to come West and reposition the ship in the West. The clean voyage made a little bit more money, and we knew the cargo was firm because with the counterparty we worked with before. So we took the opportunity to book it. I think once we come west, I think with -- almost certainty, I can say we'll go back into the crude market. .

The next question is from Petter Haugen at ABG.

First question on the market in terms of what can happen here. There are obviously lots of alternatives. But in terms of only the Red Sea transit, if we were to assume that, well, the only thing changing from now to the future is normal transits through the Red Sea again. How do you think that will impact your markets that we also see on the Suezmax markets?

Petter, thanks for your question. And thanks for only asking 1 part of all these different elements like Russia and Iran because you can go on and speak for hours. But about the Red Sea, I think initially, most of these changes and disruptions that occurred, the oil markets are positive for tankers. . I definitely think it would allow -- it would be positive for Suezmaxes because it will bring back part of the trade, which has been priced out just because of the cost of around The Cape. And this is principally either the Basra West on Suezmaxes, which was a huge trade before. And that today has just been cannibalized by the VLCCs because they load 2 Basra's Den to go around the Cape. And also to see Mediterranean and Black Sea barrels going east, again, which has completely stopped. So I would say that overall for the Suezmaxes maybe positive in the -- for the Red Sea to reopen.

Okay. And for the VLCCs, do you think? Does it...

I don't think we will have a major impact to the VLCCs. There's been a lot of -- some of the people who have equity barrels and the discharge in the Red Sea and loading from the AG, they're using their own ships for this. So you might see a bit more business for the normal fleet to do this business. . But I think for the VLCCs, they won't have the same impact as it will for the Suezmaxes.

Okay. If I could follow up with a few questions on what's the used in valuation really. So currently, we see brokers are quoting for the 5-year ECO VLCC, $112 similar for Suezmaxes axis at $74. So these numbers are obviously lower than they were last summer. But I would say it looks as if they're following up quite well. Although we haven't seen that or at least I haven't seen that many relevant transactions here. So in terms of $112 for a 5-year old VLCC and 74 for a 5-year-old Suezmax, how do you think those numbers compare to if you were to see a transaction today in the market?

Look, I think as you correctly mentioned, there haven't been many transactions recently. So it's hard to benchmark where prices are today. At times since last -- or the period you mentioned, the market felt weaker a little bit. But as these potential elements happen around Iranian -- reduction in Iranian exports and Chinese imports of Iranian crude, I don't think that the VLCCs will fluctuate down very much at all. I think that there is such a limited pool of sellers of 5-year-old VLCCs that their values are quite firm. I think as well on the Suezmaxes, it's just the Suezmaxes have a much bigger order book and delivering sooner. So there may be some downside in potential market weakness on Suezmax values. But on the VLCC, I'm pretty confident.

Understood. Okay. And a final one from me. In terms of, well, outlook here, I guess it's fair -- well, my interpretation is that you're still pretty optimistic. But if given the opportunity to take the coverage now, what would you deem to be interesting in terms of, say, 1 and 3 years for VLCCs and Suezmaxes.

I mean I think we have the classic Greek approach, which is 5,000 higher than the charter's ideas. But I mean generally speaking, the market for TCEs, it gets a lot more liquid when the market is firming a lot. And -- so if there's an opportunity to kind of charter out some vessels, you have to take advantage of that when there's a big movement in spot rates and also in paper rates. Unfortunately, most of the charters today, they do tend to hedge apart or most of their TC exposure using SFAs. So a liquid time charter market often needs to coincide with the liquid SFA market. And I think there's a lot of -- if you're aware when these opportunities present itself, you can find some attractive deals to do. So it's something we've looked at in the past. We didn't really find it that attractive, but we will keep looking at it in the next fight as well.

The next question is from Climent Molins at Value Investor's Edge.

Most has already been covered. but I wanted to delve a bit into a dark fleet and the sanctions currently in place on Russian trade. Could you give us some color on whether there are big differences on utilization of targeted vessels by European or United States sanctions? Do stand alone European sanctions also have a large impact on efficiency?

Thanks for your question. I think by far, the big impact on utilization is by U.S. sanctions. I don't think that the impact by EU sanctions or U.K. sanctions is very large to Chinese buyers, although it may be more pertinent to India and to Turkish buyers. But for sure, utilization fall drastically once you enter the grace lead. And then even more so if you're sanctioned by the EU or the U.K. And I think drastically so, if you're in sanctioned by the U.S. I mean some of the research outlets like Kepler or even some of the shipping brokers, they do some really nice research on this, which I'm sure, you can find some articles that they described, and they go through each ship by ship and compute some nice data.

We have no further questions on the call. So I'll hand the floor back to Iraklis for any closing remarks.

Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for listening in. We look forward to catching up again in mid-May.