Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 24, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
David Karnovsky
analystAll right. We'll get started. Happy to have back at the conference from Omnicom, John Wren, Chairman and CEO; and Phil Angelastro, Executive VP and CFO. Thanks so much for being here, guys.
David Karnovsky
analystJohn, maybe I'll start it off at a high level. So we're still in a pretty dynamic period for advertising and marketing services. So how are you thinking about setting key priorities for Omnicom and balancing the short and long term?
John Wren
executiveSure. The short term, I think a couple of things. We've rebalanced the portfolio over the last -- over the last 10 years. So we're -- I think we have a portfolio of companies that the market needs help from. So we're in the process, even with the prospect of lower growth in recession or mild recession at some point. We are still continuing to grow and invest in the areas where we get -- we're seeing the greatest growth and then seeing the precision marketing ethical health care, the consultancy projects that we have and then some tuck-ins for products that we've made the decision that it's cheaper to buy than to so that continues. So that's the short-term effort. Long term. Longer term, there's a lot of complexity that's in the marketplace. A lot more complexity has been introduced now with AI. We're in the unique position in that we're 1 of 2 companies that Disney selected, Microsoft selected, Disney and us to beta and test AI. We have a similar agreement with Firefly, and Sensei with Adobe, and we'll be doing something with Google and Bard, I'm not allowed to talk about. Currently today, we have over 71 projects, both client-facing and to improve our operations internally or transform our operations internally which will make it better, cheaper, faster, more effective for our knowledge workers, to face complex situations that our clients will face.
David Karnovsky
analystFrom a macro perspective, it kind of seems like we've been moving from one headwind to the next. Now it's the debt ceiling talks. So I'm interested to know kind of what you're hearing from clients in terms of their ad budgets, planned outlays. Have you seen wholesale adjustments at all? Or is it kind of more of a push for flexibility more than anything else?
John Wren
executiveI would say it's the latter. Clients have not pulled back or said that they want to cut their budgets. I think it depends on the vertical that you're talking about or the area that you're talking about, they're preserving as much flexibility as they possibly can. You get to some of the consulting projects you have with the introduction of AI and the impact, even though AI has been around for a long time, we use it at Omni, to a certain extent, not to the extent that we're going to be able to use it. People are just pausing, looking at the architecture of some of this digital transformation that they want to go through, but they haven't reduced those budgets. As a matter of fact, they see the need to excel those to double down on those budgets. The bottom line is the larger advertisers that we deal with have learned from no -- I've seen a lot of recessions, no -- no one can claim that because we stay around for the last recession, they know what to do in this recession because every recession is different. But having said that, clients learned and history proves that clients have pulled back on their marketing and promoting their products in prior recessions, take an enormous amount of time to gain back that market share and I have to spend a lot more money emerging from it. So clients are not doing that but they're preserving as much flexibility as they possibly can. You'll see that reflected, I think, in the upfronts.
David Karnovsky
analystAnd you mentioned verticals, it could differ. Any additional color you can provide there?
John Wren
executiveSure. I mean you take a look at automotive, right? You have 2 different client bases. You have the dealers and you have the manufacturers. We deal with both. The manufacturers have to position their products, especially their electric or hybrid type of products, they can't back away from the marketplace. They just can't. They absolutely cannot. The other implication that we're seeing from the OEMs point of view is if you asked them 3 years ago, where the biggest growth market was going to be they were going to say, China, then they were to said the U.S. because of all the nonsense that's going on between China and the U.S. or western companies. They're now doubling down and saying that they have to get more out of the U.S. So that's where you're seeing budgets being dedicated and spend. If you go to the dealers that didn't have supply for 3 years, they -- if you went in, were going to buy a new car, they charge your over the list. Some of them are still in denial that they can't do that anymore. And so there's a little bit of confusion as a result of that, sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't. But -- so that's 1 vertical. If you take a look at health care, health care, health care science and probably the computing power of things that they've been able to solve. There are more and more oncology drugs being developed every day. The outcomes are being proven to be much better. Those are coming to market, those need to be marketed. They need to marketed in a proper way. We need to get to the payers, and convince them that they should include those drugs on their formularies and pay for them. So the ethical pharmaceutical vertical is going through the roof and it will continue to grow. Entertainment, I guess, Western governments gave a lot of money the way a lot of people during COVID, they couldn't go anywhere. They're still spending a lot of money. You wouldn't think the doom and gloom that you might look at or I might look at the Wall Street Journal or listen on Squawk Box or Bloomberg, hasn't hit the public yet. And the ridiculous part of it is because they can't get enough people to service every room in the hotel and to get you everything they want, they've raised their prices. So the demand there is going up and people are taking advantage of it. I can go on and on. So...
David Karnovsky
analystAnything notable from the tech vertical. That's one that everyone has called out as a -- it seems like that's called out a lot as a headwind, but maybe there's a thought as you kind of cycle past year efficiency and that might see a rebound at some point.
John Wren
executiveWell, it depends on what you're talking about. You are talking about Facebook and Google...
David Karnovsky
analystYes. The big tech marketers of the world.
John Wren
executiveYes. I mean my son is Chief of Staff at 1 of the 4 major divisions and I think the text I had this morning is this was the last known layoff that they had to do last night for Facebook. I don't care, because there were competition for the best in various people...
David Karnovsky
analystRight. They count a bit.
John Wren
executiveI was now and -- now they can't be trusted as employers, so people are coming to me. So about was -- I think the next battleground that you're going to see in those tech companies is AI. We have, as I said, a relationship with Microsoft in battering their products and integrating them into what we do. We -- if you compare or you listen to YouTube comparison to OpenAI and Bard yesterday, you'd see -- you get the impression OpenAI is way ahead of Bard. Bard Google yesterday made quiet private claims that advanced quite a bit in solving copyright concerns of ethics that are associated with this. If that's the case and the other limitations that they had they'll overcome it. So I think the next war of it you're going to see, it's going to lead to...
David Karnovsky
analystIt sounds like they need brand marketing.
John Wren
executiveWell, a lot of growth, too, is going to be between all the big players and still have to get their stake in the ground. And we are partnering with them in terms of determining how to do that, and we'll service them in other ways, too.
David Karnovsky
analystGot it. So you recently reported Q1 earnings. You maintained your guidance for organic growth for the year at 3% to 5%. I think John, you described the upper end as a stretch target. You did post over 5% in the first quarter. So how are you thinking about factors that could get Omnicom to those stretch levels? Is this entirely a macro conversation? Are there factors that are more in your control?
John Wren
executiveWell, the macro environment is don't fight with Fed, right? I could put a lot of examples, can spend 10 minutes talking about what that means, but don't fight with Fed. There's 1 macro factor. Individually, when you get to our individual companies, we don't have 100% market share in anything. So we're always pushing company by company, operating unit by operating unit to do better. And so we put out stretch goals for them and ones that we think that are practical. The other dynamic which is going on within the company is I'm pretty aggressive in terms of what I think the implications of AI will be in a relatively short number of years. So we are pushing quite a number of jobs into that, that I believe will get automated or eliminated at some point into offshore locations. So there's a lot of change going on internal investment going on at the same time.
David Karnovsky
analystAnd I'd be interested how you just talked about we're not 100% market share and everything. Maybe you can update us on new business. We've seen a lot more of pitch activity recently, media and creative side. You see a lot more RFPs potentially coming down the pipe?
John Wren
executiveThere's a fair amount that's coming down the pipe, thankfully. We're in an offensive position in most of them, we're not in a defensive position. That's not to say the odd thing doesn't happen. You take the most reason ethical one. what really changed, change was the media. We didn't win it. We -- I'm pissed off about it, but we didn't win it, we'll win the next one. We didn't really -- the ethical business wasn't really in review. So it will be less than $10 million kind of impact to us, is a negative, but other opportunities are presenting themselves. And so there are a number of pitches that are going on for all sorts of different reasons. And people -- the more prominent players in the market are getting more aggressive. I used to look go-to-market to only my brands. Now I'm going to market as Omnicom, showing the power of Omnicom. So you'll see more and more of that.
David Karnovsky
analystSo that's a good segue to the next question. So 1 comment I found interesting in your Q1 commentary was that your top 100 clients are now engaging 50 different services from Omnicom on average. So how much has that figure changed over maybe the last 10 years or so?
John Wren
executiveSure. I don't know...
David Karnovsky
analystI think it's pretty constant.
John Wren
executivePretty constant. What I remember that was disciplines and geographies. Now the services have changed as they matured, but that's been the beauty of the diversity of or of the services that we provide.
Philip Angelastro
executiveYes, certainly part of the strategy. So John mentioned the Pfizer review just before we do business with Pfizer out of dozens and dozens of agencies in the U.S. and outside the U.S. So you read about a pitch oftentimes in the press. And it seems as if there's a big loss. But the reality is the more agencies and the more services you provide to those clients, the stickier those relationships are and the harder it is to kind of unseat our agencies in 1 fell swoop. So Pfizer ended up being a relatively small piece of business that we've lost, and we maintained the vast majority of the business.
David Karnovsky
analystJohn, I think...
John Wren
executiveHaving said that, I get pissed off is we didn't win right it was on the -- I was on, I'm sorry.
David Karnovsky
analystThat's okay. We talked -- you mentioned before, digital transformation. I think we've seen that growth come through in your Precision Marketing segment. What I'm wondering is kind of as we come out of the pandemic, is there any risk that we've cycled past some period where marketers were sort of moving with urgency on that topic? Or do you see digital transformation as sort of a truly secular change that you're going to get paid a long time for.
John Wren
executiveI see it as a secular change that we're going to get paid more and more for. Again, I don't want to come back to it and make it seem like I'm only talking about AI. But you look at the implications of AI and digital transformation. The architecture of what companies have to do, the ethics associated with how you use it. It's -- it will be unlimited in what it's capable of doing if you organize and architect your organization the proper way to utilize it. But also associated with that is you have privacy rights and other things. So you can't open it up to our 70,000 employees and let them run wild with it because you'll be sued until you go out of business. So there's an awful lot of questions that have to be answered. There's a very careful architecture just to be put in place. And all that complexity requires people that are expert in each 1 of those aspects in each one of those fields. So I see this as a practice that will continue to grow as it has grown. When we get past the current, what kind of hold back moment that we're -- people are facing the uncertainty in your own organizations. It's something people will have to address, we'll have to invest a lot of money in or they won't be relevant 10 years later out.
David Karnovsky
analystJohn, why don't we just lean into the AI conversation there. It sounds like you're saying 2 things, right? There's a client-facing side of this, but then there's an internal. Absolutely, you can do more efficiently. So maybe we could unpack each of those of it.
John Wren
executiveSo I'll do the internal one. I said, I want to do this. I'm not going to. We have 71 active projects going on, right? Most of which are client-facing, some are internal facing. Let me first talk about internal facing ones. Right now, if I wanted to know my real estate landscape, -- so I know I have 318 buildings on the lease globally to house 70,000 people. I know when those leases expire, I know all the terms and conditions of those leases. It's in the database. In a separate database, I have a payroll system that's connected to a human resource system, where it's, among other things, identifies what building you're assigned to in order to be paid. Alongside that, there's another database, which was all the assets that I have invested in a particular building, which I may release, I may not release. Right now, if I ask people for that information. It will probably take them at least if they work hard at it, 7 days to compile it into a database to hand it to me, to me, to hand it back them and say, you forgot this, right? If I type tucked it into OpenAI, I can get the answer by myself in 5 minutes. The control factor is the -- especially the HR part of it and there's all sorts of personal information associated with it. So I can't give that to a low-level person and let them have access to it. So in addition to defining and cleaning up databases and making them available to utilize to make better decisions, there has to be a whole governance structure associated with the digital transformation or input of that because you can't just have anybody walking around saying, gee, how much is for me, where does it go, who to still bank with. You go to Europe and try to do that. Go to Germany and try to do that, and you'll be sued for before you wake up the next morning. So that's an internal example of how I can cut out hundreds of man hours, right? So that's an internal one. I'll give you an external one, an external one, and we've told people we are bettering commercials and work that we're doing and doing it similarly in an AI fashion with our bots and all the rest. But because clarity hasn't been defined as well as it needs to be in terms of privacy rules and in terms of copyright rules. I've informed my people, and they're doing it internally, so we can see how well it works and how fast and where this eliminates and where it doesn't eliminate, but we're not deploying it to clients because you get too far away from the people who worry about everything and you give it to people who have specific assignments, they may think it's a cool saying, well, let's run with it, and they're going to end up putting a lot of trouble. So it's power from what I've seen of it. I've seen in Chat 5 and been able to play with it personally. It's not released yet, is enormous. The implications and the ethics and how to utilize it are also enormous. And so there's going to have to be a reconciliation of that.
David Karnovsky
analystOnce you get past...
John Wren
executiveI mean I give you a example. If you would do the research sitting in Belgium, Brussels, the EU has come up with a pyramid of defining risk and opportunity for AI and try to fashion some proposed legislation for this. You could drive 10 tracks side-by-side right through the middle of this legislation beating it because it's going to be hard to legislate. It's going to be based upon FX. So I was just saying to somebody else right say all the time. Everything you ever learned, you learned by the time you're 6 years old, whether you're going to be honest, transparent or whatever. So all those building blocks are in Omnicom in terms of respect for privacy, the due diligence, we go through with respect to copyright and laws. So all the foundational blocks that are there, now we just have to apply it in such a way that it's going to benefit the client, getting greater ROI. And then we also have to realize that we have to change the way we contract with clients, right? Because some of them are -- if you just put your hours in materials, and you depend upon that way of getting paid infinitem, you're going to wind up on the losing into this, is that just because AI will reduce the hours...
David Karnovsky
analystRight, or...
John Wren
executiveYes, or what it will do is it driving margins to a point where your client comes in and said, you can't make that much money. So you have to figure out, can you turn some of these efforts into platforms, charged price for the platforms because the platforms are going to enable the people that I call knowledge workers internally and Omnicom. It's going to make them do their job better, faster, smarter. Another practical example. If you had $10 million and you want to spend it in certain KPIs and you want to spend it in the New York metropolitan area. AI could give you a plan. What I can give you is information that we have about every individual that lives in the New York metropolitan area, their habits and where that should direct you. That's a private database that is not going to be available to the public. They don't know what kind of deals we have with the various medias, which might redirect you to spend the money in a different way than general AI project will help. So there is a place for us, and we have to figure out how to be paid properly for it, not necessarily historically for it. We've gone through these changes before. I was still -- I was already as an executive when we run the commission system. So I mean, I've seen these changes over a long period of time. So we're starting to adjust, and we will start to test different ways of getting paid as we gain these efficiencies. What we also have seen in most clients, and we can do this on every client now prove the ROI of a marketing dollar as we can make it more efficient for the client, they don't cut budgets or if they cut them, they cut some in a very small way, they reinvest them. If we can handle the complexity and help them through it. The other question, which is just a natural question which comes is, gee, if it gets so good, you can in-house things Yes, you can. You've been able to in-house things for a long time. We've turned that into a practice where we assist clients in-housing things. And we stay partners with them because we're doing it at scale. They're doing it for their limited company. So we get paid for helping them improve what they've already in-house because we're not frightened by. And in the case of AI this time around, as we transform our own company internally, we're going to create or further our consulting practice with the mistakes and the intelligent things that we do so we can quantify those and go sell it to companies that haven't -- don't have those skills. They don't need help in order to do it. So we'll change the portfolio again by creating other new businesses. So I'm excited about it. I'm not afraid of it, and we're embracing it.
David Karnovsky
analystGot it. We have about 7 minutes left. If there's questions in the room, can raise your hand. It's not. I can go on battling by day out. Maybe I can get you the battle a little on the upfront. You mentioned them before can hop at but ask about it. The process always looks a little less like the upfronts when I first started looking at the advertising space, maybe to strike kind of a role on that this year. How is that -- how is the changing nature of that process, more streaming, less linear play out for Omnicom Media Group.
John Wren
executiveIt's a complex question. I'm not expert in it, but I'll give you what I know. Video is the king. Everybody can see and agree with that -- there is a battle, which will continue to go on between linear and streaming. Streaming will ultimately be advertising supported this -- the public can pay for it in or the other way. I think if you looked at the total amount of money spent, linear still has more than there's a greater share I think that will erode over time, probably over the next 3 to 4 years, where we'll see the waterfall go more towards the streaming side of the equation. So -- what does all that mean? That means it's complex. And what's good for me is complexity, right? So that's what's good. The only place though that you see commitments for those clients. It's not an election year. So they're going to maintain as much flexibility as they possibly can in the upfronts because they think they'll have more certainty as the year goes on. So that will impact it as much as anything we've just discussed, except for in the case of sports...
David Karnovsky
analystSports will maintain it's place.
John Wren
executiveYes, it will maintain it's place. And we're probably the leader because of the client base we have in securing those.
David Karnovsky
analystSo I wanted to ask you on costs. You recently announced plans to exit about 1 million -- sorry, 1.5 million square feet of real estate that comes on other significant reductions. Maybe you could talk about what's changed that you can pursue this level of consolidation? And then I know there's a lot of puts and takes to the margin on that, some offsets in year 1 with return to office. Maybe you could speak to that.
Philip Angelastro
executiveSure. As a result coming out of COVID, certainly, the way we work, the way our agencies work has changed. And I think you see that reflected in the actions we've taken during COVID and coming out of COVID in trying to shrink our real estate footprint. So we've done quite a bit of that over the last really the last 5 or 6 years, but certainly accelerated that during COVID and coming out of COVID. We've set out a policy of people need to be in the office at least 3 days a week globally, but it's really 3 to 5 because many of the markets around the world, especially outside the U.S., people are back to being in the office 5 days a week. In the U.S., it's a little different, especially in the major cities we operate in, having people back in our business, we're better together, especially the creative aspects of the business. So when those people come back, they're going to come back to a more open environment. We've made some investments in the portfolio in terms of making some of our facilities easier to use, more collaborative space, et cetera, that's added a little bit of cost and offset some of the savings, but we're going to continue to use those savings to reinvest in the business, and many of the things John was talking about, but we do expect it to put us in position to be near the higher end of our margin guidance, which was operating margin of 15% to 15.4%.
John Wren
executiveOne other aspect that I'll add to that is retaining our approach in other ways. If you take the New York Metropolitan area, where people are afraid to get on subways and trains. What we've done and where people got used to going to their kid's softball game or swimming or walking their our kids to school. We've opened up satellite offices in West [indiscernible] and Greenwich under [ Nelson ] County line and in Jersey City, trying to reduce the commute and the cost of the commute for our employees and give them more flexibility. So not rent, consistently when they come to the office because they need to be in an office environment, but not trying to mitigate wherever we can the disruption that you total flexibility before, now you have to go back into a structured environment, but we're not making you commute 2 hours and pay [indiscernible] dollars -- it's going to go up congestion.
David Karnovsky
analystPhil, I'm curious, you updated your financial disclosures on the cost side. You broke out third-party incidental costs like travel from third-party costs where you act as a principal. I'm just curious for the latter, can you say in what business lines you are acting as a principal how much of that is sort of your media operations?
Philip Angelastro
executiveSure. So we have a few different businesses that have those types of costs, including our principal media operations our events business, certainly in our field marketing business. Those are the 3 principal pieces of the business that operate in that way. But there are some, some of those costs that come through virtually all of our disciplines, but at a much, much smaller level. And media business probably is about half of that.
David Karnovsky
analystGot it. John, maybe just 1 last 1 for me, going back to the real estate. I think you're going to be kind of co-locating agencies at single offices. And you've always been really careful to maintain separate identities, cultures for your agencies, right? Any risk of now kind of bringing everyone under 1 roof? Or is that...
John Wren
executiveThe risk of [indiscernible] and the difference in Omnicom over the past, I've been around, as I said, for many decades in that. People used to buy just brands and just activities. Increasingly, people are buying Omnicom. And our people have learned how to collaborate a lot better the major cultures and differences and approaches are -- there's a lot more similarities than differences. And I allow those positive of people to live in with other positive people, they've always known what the differences are in approach. You can see it in how we prepare which we never have done before until recently, when an RFP comes in, it comes in to Omnicom more often than that now than to a particular agency, especially when you're talking about larger opportunities. So that's where you'll really see the impact. And that's primarily in the U.S. To give you a perfect example, the next biggest market after the U.S. is London. In London, there's over 5,000 people. They are located in 1 location, it's 2 buildings. We're joining bridge between the 2 different floors. If you went into any 1 of them and ask them if they have -- do they work for, they say Omnicom. We ask them if they have a different culture than the agency on the other floor, they say yes. right? So we're getting the best of both worlds. We're not trying to do it at the exclusion of losing that culture, losing that ability to attract people. but we're also -- we also know that clients aren't interested in hearing about us. We're there to solve a client's problem and solve it as Omnicom.
David Karnovsky
analystAll right. I think that's a good way to wrap. Thanks, John.
John Wren
executiveThank you.
Philip Angelastro
executiveThanks everybody for coming.
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