OMV Aktiengesellschaft (OMV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the OMV Group's Second Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to refer you to the disclaimer, which includes our position on forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on beliefs, estimates and assumptions currently held by an information currently available to OMV. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that will or may occur in the future and are outside of control of OMV. Therefore, recipients are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. OMV disclaims any obligation and does not intend to update these forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, revised assumptions and expectations and future developments and events. This presentation does not contain any recommendation or invitation to buy or sell securities in OMV. I'd now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Florian Greger, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Greger. [Technical Difficulty]

Can you hear us now, good morning.

We can hear you now. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Sorry for the technical inconveniences. I understand the line is now stable. So good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to OMV's Earnings Call for the second quarter 2024. With me on the call are our CEO, Alfred Stern; and Reinhard Florey, our Chief Financial Officer. As always, Alfred will walk you through the highlights of the quarter and discuss OMV's financial performance. After his presentation, both gentlemen will be available to answer your questions. And without further ado, I hand it over to Alfred.

Very good. Thank you, Florian. Just to check and make sure. I assume you can hear me?

We can hear you loud and clear.

Excellent. Very good. So apologies also from my side for the short delay. I'm glad that we could make it work. Ladies and gentlemen, good morning and thank you for joining us. OMV has continued to deliver solid results, while advancing with our strategy 2030. We were able to increase both our clean CCS operating results and our cash flow from operations compared with the second quarter of last year. Looking at the first half of this year, we generated a strong cash flow from operations of EUR 3 billion, an increase of 3% compared to the same period last year. This is a good basis to continue to reward our shareholders through attractive distributions and invest in the transformation and growth of OMV. In the second quarter, we saw Brent crude oil prices averaging $85 per barrel, 9% higher than the prior year quarter and slightly higher than in the previous quarter. Prices have been mainly driven by OPEC+ supply management, offsetting the slowdown in global oil demand and fading geopolitical risk premium. Consequently, for a sustained period, Brent prices did not drop below $80 per barrel, which is currently seen as a floor price for OPEC+. European gas prices rose gradually over the quarter to an average of EUR 31 per megawatt hour due to a combination of factors, including renewed supply concerns regarding Norway and uncertainties related to deliveries of Russian gas. However, compared to the prior year quarter, gas prices were 12% lower. Overall, gas demand in Europe remains subdued, primarily due to strong renewable power production. As a result, regional LNG imports have stayed significantly below the levels of the same period last year. At the end of June, the storage levels in Europe were at 77%, consistent with the prior year levels. The European refining indicator margin declined to $7 per barrel, which was slightly below the second quarter of 2023 and approximately 35% lower than the previous quarter. The decline versus the previous year was driven by weaker gasoline cracks and higher crude oil prices. Gasoline crack spreads started weakening in the second half of the quarter as U.S. demand was lower than anticipated, while refinery run rates were elevated globally, thereby increasing product availability. Olefin indicator margins in Europe improved from the previous quarter due to limited supply caused by outages and closures of European crackers. However, compared to the prior year quarter, olefin indicator margins were 11% down. While European demand was slightly better than the historic lows recorded in the prior year quarter and contract prices increased, the naphtha cost rose more rapidly, resulting in a decrease of olefin margins compared to the prior year quarter. Polyolefin indicator margins increased compared to both the previous quarter and prior year quarter. The polyethylene margin, in particular, rose strongly year-over-year by 37%, which was supported by fewer imports from the Middle East and Asia due to supply chain bottlenecks in the Red Sea and Panama Canal. The clean CCS operating result grew by 4% to EUR 1.23 billion compared to the prior year quarter. This growth was primarily driven by a substantial improvement in Chemicals of more than EUR 100 million as well as higher results in Fuels & Feedstock on the back of a higher utilization rate. The performance of the Energy segment declined by around EUR 80 million due to a lower result in Gas Marketing & Power. Clean CCS earnings per share rose by 5%, as the clean CCS tax rate was stable at 46%. Cash flow from operating activities increased by almost EUR 1 billion compared to the second quarter of 2023, when we made high tax payments in Norway related to the extraordinarily high commodity price environment of 2022. The utilization rate of our refineries increased to 89%, a significant improvement compared to the previous year's quarter, which was impacted by the planned turnaround at Petrobrazi. The utilization rate of the steam crackers remained stable at 83%, outperforming the average European rates. Polyolefin sales volumes rose by 13% year-over-year, driven by improved demand, market share gains and higher volumes at Borouge and Baystar. Fuel sales volumes increased slightly as well. In the Energy segment, oil and gas production was 4% lower year-over-year, mainly due to reduced volumes in New Zealand, Norway and Romania. We continued to execute our strategy and made further progress in the transformation of our company. Let me highlight some major milestones reached in the second quarter. In Chemicals, we have completed the construction of our flagship ReOil recycling plant, with a capacity of 16,000 tons per year, and we will work on gradual start-up in the second half of this year. Last week, Borealis, in a consortium with Borouge and ADNOC, signed a collaboration agreement with Wanhua Chemical Group, a leading Chinese chemical company, for a feasibility study to develop a 1.6 million ton per year state-of-the-art polyolefin complex in Fuzhou, China. If realized, this polyolefins complex will accelerate the parties' growth ambitions in the region and meet the growing demand for sustainable and innovative polyolefin solutions. Borealis' proprietary Borstar technology is planned to be at the core of the project, enabling the development of products that are well suited to drive the transition toward a circular economy for plastics. Furthermore, this morning, we announced the collaboration with Clariant to explore the supply of sustainable ethylene and develop new strategies to meet sustainability targets in the ethylene supply chain. In Fuels & Feedstock, we commenced operations at the coprocessing plant in Austria with a production capacity of 135,000 tons per year. We also took the FID for a SAF/HVO plant in our Petrobrazi refinery in Romania. The plant will have a production capacity of 250,000 tons per year and is expected to start up in 2028. The market for renewable fuels will gradually rebalance as demand for HVO rises in the European Union due to legislation, which stipulates that greenhouse gas reduction targets will increase. For example, in Austria, it will increase from 7% to at least 13% by 2030. To keep up with the above 7% threshold, producers will mainly be able to use HVO or e-mobility offsets to meet the road fuel-based greenhouse gas reduction targets. As a result, we anticipate a tight HVO market after 2027. OMV Petrom closed the acquisition of Renovatio Asset Management and now owns the largest charging network for electrical vehicles in Romania of more than 750 points and aiming for around 1,000 by the end of the year. We also completed the acquisition of filling stations in Austria, which will serve the commercial road transport sector with corresponding high diesel sales volumes. This move strengthens the integration of our refinery operations, while enhancing the coverage of our network. In Energy, OMV and its partners, Var Energi and Lime Petroleum, received a second carbon storage license in Norway. The injection capacity of the license is expected to exceed 7.5 million metric tons of CO2 per year. OMV Petrom signed a new acquisition of photovoltaic projects in Romania, expanding the partnership with Renovatio through the ownership of a 50% stake in renewable energy projects amounting to 130 megawatts. With this new transaction, the total joint portfolio held by the 2 partners exceeds 1.1 gigawatts. Also this morning, we announced that OMV has acquired 7 terawatt hours per year natural gas transport rights into Austria for the period between October 2026 and September 2028, in addition to the 20 terawatt hours per year acquired in the European auction last summer. OMV has also acquired 15 terawatt hours transport rights for the period between October 2028 and September 2029. Let me now come to the performance of our business segments. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, the clean operating result of Chemicals grew by EUR 107 million. This growth was primarily driven by a positive development of inventory effects, higher polyolefin sales and improved results from the Borealis joint ventures. The divestment of the Nitro business mid last year also had a supporting effect, as the business had a negative result of EUR 35 million in the second quarter of 2023. In our European business, we recorded negative market effects of EUR 25 million, attributable to decreasing olefin indicator margins, partially compensated for by the positive development of the polyolefin indicator margins. The overall result was supported by a significant improvement in the inventory effects of around EUR 80 million compared to the prior year quarter. At 83%, the utilization rate of the European crackers was stable compared to the previous year quarter. The result of OMV's olefin business was impacted by weaker indicator margins and higher discounts to customers. The result of the Borealis olefin business was supported by positive inventory effects and an improved light feedstock advantage at our Nordic crackers. The second quarter of 2023 benefited from the receipt of an insurance compensation payment related to the Schwechat incident. The performance of the polyolefin business improved, supported by a positive development in inventory valuation effects and higher sales volumes, which rose by 10%. The increase was visible in all industries covered by Borealis and it was driven by a combination of factors: growth in market share, additional business from recent acquisitions, improved demand and constrained supply as a result of the logistical bottlenecks limiting imports into Europe. Absolute realized margins rose for both standard and specialty products with the latter experiencing a more significant rise. The contribution of the joint ventures grew by EUR 17 million, driven by the stronger performance of Borouge, thanks to increased sales volumes. We also saw a rise in sales volumes at Baystar, attributable to the ramp-up of the Borstar PE plant. The cracker has been running at high utilization rate in the second quarter and we anticipate this to continue. The new PE plant utilization rate was above 50% in the second quarter and continues to ramp up. However, the Baystar results declined slightly compared to the second quarter of 2023, owing to higher planned depreciation and interest expenses associated with the new assets. The clean CCS operating result of Fuels & Feedstock increased to EUR 308 million, mainly driven by a higher refinery utilization rate, partially offset by a reduced contribution from ADNOC Refining and Trading. The refining utilization rate increased by 16 percentage points to 89%, as the second quarter of 2023 was impacted by the turnaround at the Petrobrazi refinery. Our Retail and Commercial businesses continued to perform strongly. Total sales volumes improved by 4%, primarily due to higher commercial volumes, partially offset by lower retail volumes due to the divestment of the Slovenian network. Excluding this divestment, the retail performance was slightly higher than in the second quarter of 2023, attributable to increased fuel sales and an increased contribution from the nonfuel business. The contribution from ADNOC Refining and Trading decreased significantly by EUR 72 million, impacted by weaker refining margins. In addition, the prior year quarter benefited from a positive one-off effect. The clean operating result of the Energy segment decreased by 9% to EUR 817 million due to a significantly lower contribution from Gas Marketing & Power. OMV's realized oil price rose by 9%, the same as the Brent price, while the realized gas price declined by 19%. Overall, we recorded positive market effects of EUR 34 million versus the prior year quarter. Production volumes decreased by 15,000 BOE per day. This was mainly a consequence of lower production in New Zealand due to unplanned outages and lower well productivity, natural decline and planned maintenance in Norway, as well as natural decline in Romania. The production cost rose slightly to $10.2 per barrel, mainly because of lower production, partially compensated for by efficiency improvement measures. Sales volumes remained nearly stable, despite lower production, supported by the lifting schedule in Libya. The result of Gas Marketing & Power declined significantly by EUR 131 million, which was mainly attributable to a sharp decrease in the contribution from Romania. The Gas East result reflected decreased prices and margins and the negative effects of changes in legislation starting April 2024, mainly related to CO2 costs, which can no longer be recovered. In addition, the prior year quarter had benefited from a reversal of a provision in the magnitude of a mid-double-digit million euro figure. Turning to cash flows. Our second quarter operating cash flow amounted to around EUR 1.2 billion, substantially higher than in the second quarter of 2023, where we paid the tax liabilities in Norway related to the extraordinarily high price commodity environment of 2022. The net working capital effects in the quarter were positive and amounted to around EUR 300 million. We received dividends totaling EUR 225 million from Borouge and EUR 35 million from ADNOC Refining and Trading. Looking at the half year picture, at EUR 3 billion, the cash flow from operating activities increased by 3% compared to the same period last year, supported by strong cash generation in the underlying business and despite significantly lower net working capital effects. Our free cash flow in the first half of 2024 was impacted by the outflow related to the payments of full year dividends and thus turned negative to roughly minus EUR 545 million. In the second quarter, we paid the full year regular and special dividends to OMV shareholders, along with dividends for minority shareholders in OMV Petrom and Borealis, and payments to hybrid bond holders. Despite this, our free cash flow improved by 28% compared to the first half of 2023. Moving on to the balance sheet. In the second quarter, our net debt temporarily increased to EUR 3.3 billion and our leverage ratio to 12%. The second quarter is the quarter with the highest yearly cash outflows, due to the payment of the annual dividends plus the payment of the solidarity taxes in Romania relating to 2023. We expect the leverage ratio to decrease again in the second half of the year, taking into account the divestment of our Malaysia business for an overall cash consideration of $903 million. In the second quarter, we decided to redeem EUR 500 million of hybrid notes at its first call date. The fair value of the hybrid bond was reclassified from equity to short-term bonds and consequently repaid, thereby negatively impacting the leverage ratio. In addition, we redeemed an additional EUR 500 million of bonds. At the end of June 2024, OMV had a cash position of EUR 5.4 billion and EUR 4.3 billion in undrawn committed credit facilities. Let me conclude with an updated outlook for this year. We maintained the full year Brent price estimate at around $85 per barrel and have upgraded our gas price estimates. We anticipate the THE gas price to be higher than previously assumed, now between EUR 30 and EUR 35 per megawatt hour. Consequently, the OMV average realized gas price is expected to be around EUR 25 per megawatt hour. In Chemicals, we are reconfirming our full year guidance for the olefin indicator margins and upgrading the outlook for the polyolefin indicator margins, given ongoing disruptions to global supply chains. We now expect the full year polyethylene indicator margin to be above EUR 400 per ton, while the polypropylene indicator margin is estimated to be around EUR 400 per ton. Borealis polyolefin sales volumes, excluding JVs, are unchanged at 3.9 million tons, an increase of more than 10% versus last year. In Fuels & Feedstock, we uphold our full year guidance of around $8 per barrel. We maintain our expectation that total fuel sales volumes will be above the 2023 level. Our Retail and Commercial businesses accounted for around half of the earnings of the Fuels & Feedstock segment in the first 6 months of 2024. We expect their strong performance to continue in the second half of this year, with the third quarter being the most robust seasonally. Because of a lower refinery utilization rate in the first half of 2024, we are adjusting our full year utilization rate to around 90%. In the second half of this year, we expect an increased utilization rate of significantly above 90%. In Energy, we expect production to be higher in the third quarter, given the start-up of the Jerun field in Malaysia, which will be partially offset by a slightly lower production in Romania due to planned maintenance. The closing of the divestment of our Malaysian assets is subject to government and regulatory approvals and is now expected in the second half of the year. Looking at cash flows, in line with Borouge announcement of dividends for 2024, we expect to receive around EUR 200 million dividend in the second half of the year, as the first payment for the 2024 fiscal year. The guidance for the clean tax rate for the full year remains unchanged at around 45%. Before I conclude, I would like to point out our good performance in operating cash flow in the first half of this year, up by 3% compared to the same period in 2023. Based on this strength and our positive outlook for the second half of the year, we are confident in delivering a progressive regular dividend and a special dividend for 2024. It is highly important to us to continue rewarding our shareholders with attractive distributions. Thank you for your attention. And now, Reinhard and I will be happy to take your questions.

Thank you, Alfred. Let's now come to your questions. [Operator Instructions] The first question this morning comes from Josh Stone, UBS.

Two questions, please. Firstly, on gas trading. Just wanted to pick up on the outlook there because it seems like there's a number of moving parts. You've got the legislative change in Romania, but also this quarter, you took a provision related to transport in the Western segment. So can you just talk about -- walk us through the outlook for the second half of this year? What are the key moving parts? And in particular, how should we think about transport provisions as you continue to shift supply away from Russia or supply sources away from Russia? And then secondly, on M&A, and I won't ask about ADNOC. But at your recent CMD, you did highlight you're looking at other opportunities in chemicals in Asia. And in North America, you've recently announced a feasibility study in China for a new facility. So should we consider that's the opportunity you're referencing to in Asia? Or are you looking at other countries in Asia as well? And maybe you could just talk about what sort of opportunity sets are looking like in North America or anywhere else you're looking that would be great?

Okay. Good. Thank you, Josh. Let me start with your M&A and the strategic question, and then maybe Reinhard can help me out on the moving pieces of the gas result. The -- what we said -- we confirmed in the Capital Market Day is that in Chemicals, in particular, we are looking for geographically expanding. And of course, the Baystar project that is in ramp-up is one key part of this. The Borouge Wanhua project is another part. Now we have announced such a feasibility study, right? And I want to emphasize, it's a feasibility study that we are doing lots of work, needed to be done before we can decide anything in there. The feasibility study in China, together with a consortium on our outside, Borouge, ADNOC, Borealis and Wanhua on the other side to look at establishing something. In general, I can say that we will look at M&A to accelerate our transformation to move forward faster than we have in our organic growth plans in the strategy. But of course, these inorganic opportunities need to serve the purpose and deliver the right profitability criteria. We stay committed to this. We continue to look out at other pieces. I mentioned, for example, Renovatio in Romania was one piece where we accelerated basically the entrance into electric charging. There's other M&A activities going on there in terms of photovoltaic and wind that we have published. Beyond this, there is currently nothing that we can specifically announce. But of course, we are always having open eyes for any potential opportunities.

Yes, Josh. And maybe to your first question about the outlook at gas trading. I think 2 factors to be taken into account. The first is if we are taking the levels of the Gas East business in Romania. We have to see that there has been a temporary regulation until end of 2024 that came into effect with April 1. So with the beginning of the first -- of the second quarter, that lowered the possibility, for instance to recover CO2 costs. And therefore, the overall results will be on a lower level. And that is not only from the gas trading, but that's also from the power business that we have in there, where we have also some limitations there. This is an area where we expect levels of Q3 and Q4, more or less being on the same level, in Gas East than Q2. However, when it comes to transport provisions, transport provisions have been taken at a mark-to-market valuation perspective. And if they are seasonally out of the money, then we have to take this provision. But we are very confident that this will come back. And this is not something that will, first of all, continue. On the contrary, we think that this will actually come back and contribute to our results.

Thanks a lot, Josh. We now come to Matt Smith, Bank of America. Sorry, I've just heard that the next question is from Sasi Chilukuru, Morgan Stanley.

I have two, please. The first was on petrochemical margins. We've seen another upgrade of polyolefin margins. I was just wondering if you could let us know how much of this latest upgrade was related to stronger-than-expected 2Q margins? And how much is it looking forward as well? What level -- what margin levels are you currently seeing? And if you could also highlight where you're seeing improved demand in Europe and how sustainable this pickup is that would be helpful. The second was regarding Baystar. We've seen rising sales volumes and ramp up of the Borstar PE plant. When should we start seeing dividends come from this JV? And when they come, what level should we expect as well? If I could slip a very small one. It's just a clarification. The Petrobrazi plant, which has been turned around in 2Q, so just wondering if that is completed and now it's fully available at 100% in 3Q?

Okay. Sasi, thank you for the questions. Maybe let me start with third question because it's easy to answer. The Petrobrazi refinery turnaround that was in 2023, right? So the higher utilization quarter 2 of 2024 benefited from that difference. So there was no turnaround. This year, it's fully available for production. High utilization rate, actually. Then let me comment on the petchem margins, where we did actually see both in quarter 1, but then also in quarter 2 healthy polyolefin margins, right? So it's a little bit different between olefin and polyolefin margins. We have seen that the polyolefin margins have actually developed quite positively in widening also in the second quarter. We believe that is a mix of different kind of causes here. One is, of course, slightly improved demand. We have actually seen that our sales volumes of polyolefins are about 10% higher in the second quarter compared to last year. That is a positive sign, but not all of it is market growth. Some of it is a market share gain and some of it is also a benefit of limited supply chain capability to import into Europe. So that is helping here. But in any case, widening polyolefin margins are a result of this. In July, we have seen that margins continued to be steady compared to June, more or less also on the Q2 average. The olefin prices, they also rolled over in July, which resulted a little bit in the margin squeeze because the naphtha prices went up. So as we show, the reason for our upgraded outlook here is really that we expect -- so over EUR 400 per ton now for polyethylene and around -- so upper end of the previous range around EUR 400 per ton for polypropylene clearly indicates that we see this situation to persist for some longer time. So we have a more optimistic outlook, if you want then for the rest of the year. Also, you probably picked up, we were able to -- Borouge was able to increased sales volumes and hence, also a significantly stronger results compared to last year. And last but not least, on your question around Baystar. For Baystar, I can say the following good news that the cracker is now and has been running for a while at high utilization rate and we expect to keep this up for the second half of the year. The new Borstar polyethylene plant, on the other hand, is in the ramp-up phase as well and has reached utilization rate now of about 50% in the second quarter, which is then resulting in those increased BE sales volumes that you saw. We expect that we continue to ramp up on the polyethylene plant as well, that the production will become more and more stable and more and more volumes that produced will be on spec, which means that we will also be able to improve the commercial performance compared to the ramp-up activities that we have here now. So in terms of contribution, I believe 2025 will be a more relevant, meaningful year for Baystar, with both the cracker and the new plant running then at high utilization rates.

And maybe to add to that, Sasi. You asked whether we are expecting dividends soon. Actually, as Alfred said, we have clearly made progress. For the first time, we have not only seen positive EBITDA, we have seen positive EBIT in the Baystar, and we are making progress. Nevertheless, we will probably, in 2025, still dedicate the results -- the good results we are expecting to deleverage the company before we then start paying dividends somewhat later on.

Thank you very much, Sasi. And now we come to Matt Smith, Bank of America.

I have a couple of please. The first one was on the topic of M&A again, but actually in regard to the energy business, the upstream business. I know this is an area where you're targeting growth per se, but with the disposal to close later in the year, natural declines, I suppose, production will step down as we look into 2025. So I just wanted to ask around that whether acquisitions on the E&P side, on the Energy segment, is something that you are considering to sort of moderate the production profile at all? And then my second question would be on refining, if I could. Just would love to get your perspective on whether you're able to comment on where refining margins have exited the quarter? And what your sort of prognosis is for the -- sort of some of the weakness that we've seen? I think middle distillate demand, the diesel demand has been much talked about in terms of being pretty weak in Europe, but now gasoline cracks seem to be sort of disappointing versus seasonal expectations, and perhaps that has something to do with the supply side of things. But I'm just interested on your perspective there, if you could?

Very good. Thank you, Matt. Let me start with the first question around M&A. And you're correct. We continue -- we stay committed to our production goal of 350,000 barrel per day by 2030. Our guidance for this year is 330,000 to 350,000. Based on our current portfolio, we have Malaysia as a divestment. As I said, we expect closing in the second half of the year of this transaction. So -- then we have Neptun Deep as a development project, which will make a significant contribution. But there is still a gap that we need to close in order to make sure that we deliver on this 350,000 BOE per day target that we have. Unfortunately, we always -- like I said before, we always look around and try and make sure to drive our implementation forward as quickly as possible. At this stage, nothing that I can report to you, but it is -- inorganic is a possibility also in the energy sector, not just in the renewable power as I described before, but also to make sure we can meet our 350,000 BOE per day target by 2030. Then your second question on refining indicator margins. And I just want to make a little excursion here before I dive into this because I think we are sometimes not explaining enough our Fuels & Feedstock business here. Because when you look at that business, it's really more than refining. And in particular, our Retail and Commercial business continues to perform strongly also here now in the second quarter of this year. But looking at the first half of this year, the first 6 months, about half -- roughly half of our result in the Fuels & Feedstock business came from Retail and Commercial. And we expect this to continue also in the second half, where the third quarter is typically the strongest quarter for this particular business. So there's multiple aspects to this because in the retail business, we don't only have fuel business, but also nonfuel business that is showing good growth. We are also seeing the electric charging on our EV stations ramping up and so on. So this is a business that we continue -- that we expect to continue also in the second half of the year. Now the second piece I want to mention is that the first half of the year, we were also bringing on that co-processing unit in our refinery in Schwechat that has reduced the utilization rate and this is now fully operational. So not only do we expect sales coming from this, but also we expect now our utilization rate across the network to be significantly above 90%. Now with these things said, the refining indicator margins, we see significant volatility in those. We saw in April, they dropped to $6 per barrel. In May, then they went back up to $8, only to finish then with an average of $7 for the quarter here. So I would expect that maybe we see -- we continue to see some of the volatility here in July. Beginning of July, we saw the margins drop down a bit below $6 per barrel and we will see then for the rest of the quarter and for the rest of the year how this will pan out exactly. In any case, we do uphold our full year guidance of about $8 per barrel indicator margin for the refineries. Maybe just as a final remark, right, to put this a bit into perspective. We are saying in our sensitivity guidance, we are saying that a drop of about $1 in indicator margin causes about EUR 90 million in reduced cash flows in a full year, which means half year, it's about EUR 45 million. And if you look at the total cash flow delivery first half of the year, about EUR 3 billion, so that you can just put that into a bit of perspective.

Thank you for your questions, Matt, and we now move on to Henry Tarr from Berenberg.

The first is just on the Russian gas and the pipelines. So could you remind us what the current Russia gas deliveries are? And then on the pipeline rights that you've now sort of tied up, I guess you're moving to a point where you don't need Russia gas. But are they flexible on the supply side here, I guess, if the -- if you switch from Russia pipeline to LNG, what happens on the other side? Can you reflect that through or higher prices to your customers? And then the second question is just a little bit on the SAF and HVO outlook. You mentioned in the remarks there that you see that the market being sort of tight after 2027. There's obviously a lot of moving parts in there, but there also seems to be a lot of capacity being built in Europe. I just wonder sort of, again, what confidence you have around the outlook for biofuels as you look towards 2030?

Okay. Thank you, Henry. Let me start with the Russian gas question and the pipelines. And I can confirm, we are now in a position where we have diversified our supply sources in such a way that we can supply all our contract customers with non-Russian supplies if the supply from Gazprom stops. So we have also that pipeline capacity is to make that possible, not just in Austria, but also internationally. So from this perspective, we are no longer dependent on the Russian supplies to be able to fulfill our supply obligations, which is an excellent position to be in. Now as regards to the flexibility, the Gazprom contract that we have is a take-or-pay contract. So as long as Gazprom is able to supply through the contractually agreed supply location, which is the Slovakia and Austrian border, we are obliged to at least pay if we don't take the gas. Since also the 14th sanctioned package in the EU does not have any sanctions against pipeline gas from Russia, we take a business decision and we continue to offtake that gas. But at the same time, we do also have a sophisticated legal strategy. We have launched multiple arbitrations against Gazprom starting in the beginning of 2023 that are running. Therefore, I cannot report any details of it. But hopefully, in the second half of this year, we will be able to report on the progress. On the prices, the prices are really developed on the regional hubs. So in Austria, there would be the CEGH hub in Germany, THE in Holland, the TTF hub, and depending on demand supply and also some expectations, what markets do, we have seen some nervous reactions to supply outages in Norway or a little bit longer ago strikes in Australia and things like this. There might be additional reactions that are not just factual, but also driven by estimates of people. So from this perspective, I do think that these prices will continue to react if Russian supplies come out. The Russian supplies of OMV to Austria in the European picture add a very small percentage of the total quantity. So simply volumetric that would be a very small driver for demand supply balance. Sorry, SAF/HVO, you had another question. Thanks, Florian, for reminding me. Yes, so the SAF/HVO mandates that are coming -- that are in place now in the EU with -- starting with next year with a 2% SAF/HVO mandate. And then by 2030, 5% mandate that is there. That will, of course, drive the demand dynamics because also the way these mandates are legally structured. There is both fines, but also a catch-up obligation if, in 1 year, you don't meet the mandated volumetric mix. And all our simulations are indicating that both for HVO, but also for SAF, after 2027, the market will be rather short despite all the capacity that is being built. And we have -- as you can see, right, the SAF/HVO plant in Romania, that will come on stream 2028. So beyond this period, in order to make sure that the necessary demand is there, in order to do that, there will be a premium to the SAF that will have to be significant, but that is also significantly covered by the fines and by this catch-up obligations that are legally mandated.