OMV Petrom S.A. (SNP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

April 30, 2025

Bucharest Stock Exchange RO Energy Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels earnings 47 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the OMV Petrom's earnings call. Today's presentation will last around 30 minutes and will be recorded. By now, you should have received the presentation by e-mail. The slides and the speech are also available online on www.omvpetrom.com in the Investors section. This also includes the cautionary statements regarding forward-looking statements. Now let me hand over to Simona Crutu, Manager of the Investor Relations and Stakeholder Engagement Department, who will moderate the event.

Simona Crutu

executive
#2

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us. We'll have a presentation followed by a Q&A session. Christina Verchere, Chief Executive Officer, will provide the key highlights about the macroeconomic and regulatory environment as well as the performance of our business segments. Alina Popa, Chief Financial Officer, will give you more details on our financial performance and the brief outlook. Afterwards, they will be available to answer your questions. [Operator Instructions] I'm now handing over to Christina.

Christina Verchere

executive
#3

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome to our conference call that will take you through our performance in the first quarter of 2025. Please let me first draw your attention to our legal disclaimer, which you can read in detail on Slide 2. On Slide 3, we present the key highlights for the first quarter. Operational performance was strong in the first quarter. However, the context of lower and volatile commodity prices and margins and also the regulatory environment impacted our financial performance, partially offset by integration benefits. At RON 1.3 billion, our first quarter Clean CCS operating result was 29% lower year-on-year. Our operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2025 declined by 11% year-on-year and reached RON 2.7 billion. The Clean CCS return on average capital employed reached 13.3 percentage points. I will go into details on each business division later on in this presentation. However, I would like to point out that our hydrocarbon production recorded the lowest year-on-year decline for a first quarter in the past 5 years and marking even a slight increase quarter-on-quarter. The high utilization of the Petrobrazi refinery and our continuous focus on cost contributed also to our results. Gas and power business was negatively affected by regulations, however, overall still positive at an integrated company level. During the first quarter, we further progressed and focused on delivering on our 3 strategic pillars. In our strategic pillar, Grow regional gas, our Neptun Deep project is progressing as planned. In March, we started drilling in the Pelican South field, while progressing with the fabrication of equipment and construction of the natural gas metering station. We also continued gas marketing activities. Additionally, in March, we closed the transaction with NewMed Energy, and we are advancing exploration activities in Bulgaria's Han Asparuh offshore block, aiming to start drilling an exploration well this year. We are also making significant progress in strategic pillar Transition to Low and Zero carbon. In February, we started the construction of the sustainable fuels unit at our Petrobrazi refinery, a EUR 750 million investment, which integrates sustainable fuel production along with 2 facilities for green hydrogen. Thus, we will become the first major producer of sustainable fuels in Southeast Europe contributing to the energy transition. And recently, we announced the signing of design and execution contracts for 4 PV parks in our partnership with CE Oltenia. The 4 projects envisage a total installed capacity of approximately 550-megawatt higher than the initially estimated capacity of 450 megawatts, built on contractors' updated solutions aiming to maximize power production. The total investment for the 4 PV power exceeds EUR 450 million, of which approximately 70% is to be financed through the Modernization Fund. OMV Petrom and CE Oltenia are equal partners in the project each holding a 50% stake. And last week, the General Meeting of Shareholders approved the distribution of a base dividend RON 0.0444 per share. The payment will be made starting third of June. In addition, around the middle of 2025, the Executive Board will decide if a special dividend distribution is to be proposed. On HSSE, the total recordable injury rate for the period April 2024 to March 2025 was 0.47. Moreover, we continued our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas intensity with projects in all 3 business divisions. Now let us take a look at the evolution of commodity prices in the first quarter of 2025. Oil prices were supported in January by additional sanctions targeting trade in Russian oil. However, prices weakened over February and into March as markets became more concerned about global economic growth on the back of the emerging U.S. trade policy. Brent averaged $76 per barrel in the first quarter, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, but an increase of 1% quarter-on-quarter. OMV Petrom indicator refining margin reached $8.23 per barrel in the first quarter, 35% lower year-on-year, mainly due to lower middle distillate and gasoline crack spreads. European spot gas prices increased by mid-Feb, supported by a large extraction from storages due to high demand. Prices eased in the second half of the quarter as LNG inflows increased and this demand tailed off seasonally. At an average of EUR 49 per megawatt hour, the CEGH price was up by more than 70% year-on-year and 10% up quarter-on-quarter. Gas prices on the Romanian centralized market increased at a higher pace, partly due to some storage extraction restrictions on the local market. The day-ahead prices were around EUR 51 per megawatt hour, 28% higher quarter-on-quarter and 88% higher year-on-year. Baseload electricity prices in Romania were broadly flat quarter-on-quarter, but increased 82% year-on-year to an average of EUR 134 per megawatt hour. This increase reflects the challenges of the power systems due to the temporary low hydro and wind power available, which requires more energy from gas and coal sources. The average CO2 price increased by 24% year-on-year to EUR 73 per tonne of CO2, from the very low levels recorded in the first quarter of 2024. Looking now at the Romanian macroeconomic environment, the latest available data shows that in 2024, GDP increased by only 0.9% year-on-year. Last week, the IMF reduced projected GDP growth for 2025 for Romania from 3.3% to 1.6%. And for 2026, Romanian GDP is now forecast to grow by 2.8% reduced from the previous 3.7%. Though the expectations of softening, Romania remains above the EU average estimates of 1.2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. The consumer price index for the month of March 2025 versus March 2024 was 4.9%. Recently, Romania was reconfirmed at investment grade, still with a downward revision of outlook from stable to negative. This was driven by the high budget deficit as well as a weaker growth outlook. Looking at the Romanian energy sector in the first quarter of 2025, demand based on our internal estimates, slightly increased for all our products. Demand for retail fuels slightly increased by less than 1% year-on-year. Commercial demand was down by 8% year-on-year due to weak industrial sector evolution, coupled with the seasonal increase of energy costs due to colder weather. Gas demand increased by 2% year-on-year, generated by higher consumption from households and small and medium enterprises due to very cold weather in February. Power demand was 1% higher year-on-year, while domestic production significantly decreased by 15% year-on-year, making Romania a net importer of power in the first quarter of 2025 compared to a net exporter in the similar period of the previous year. The contribution of hydro, wind and gas to the overall generation mix significantly decreased year-on-year, while electricity from solar and coal power sources increased year-on-year. Turning to the fiscal and regulatory framework for our markets. In the context of Romania's high fiscal deficit, a tax on the net value of certain constructions was introduced as of the 1st of January 2025. The 0.5% approved is lower than the 1% on gross asset value initially announced at the end of 2024. As a result, we have lowered our estimated impact on OMV Petrom for 2025 from mid- to low double-digit million euro. The 0.5% tax on turnover introduced in 2024 for 2 years remains applicable also in 2025. We maintain our estimate on the impact from this tax to below RON 250 million in 2025. The Gas and power sector in Romania remains highly regulated with more than half of our gas and power sales portfolio subject to some form of regulation or taxation. The Ordinance 32, in effect since April 2024 was prolonged by Ordinance 6/2025 until the end of June this year for electricity and until the end of March 2026 for gas. It also brought some changes, which slightly reduced the regulatory pressure, as the contribution to the energy transition fund decreased from 100% to 80% and the trading profit margin increased from 10% to 20%. We reiterate our belief that free market principles are fundamental for investments and that intervention should be temporary in nature. Let me now move to the performance of our divisions, starting with exploration and production. Clean operating results in exploration production increased by 14% year-on-year to RON 0.8 billion in the first quarter of 2025 driven by higher gas price, lower depreciation and favorable foreign exchange effect, partly offset by higher gas taxation, lower oil price, lower sales volumes and higher production costs. Hydrocarbon production in the first quarter continued the strong performance with a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, supported by the contribution from workover jobs and drilling, managing to partly compensate the natural decline. Moreover, production was slightly higher quarter-on-quarter with an increase of 1.3% in gas, partly offset by a decrease of 0.8% in oil. Production cost per barrel of oil equivalent increased year-on-year by 7% to $17, reflecting lower volumes available for sale and increased costs, including the newly introduced construction tax with an impact of $0.34 per barrel of oil equivalent. For the full year 2025, we largely maintain the guidance provided in April. We now estimate Brent oil price to be around $70 per barrel compared to our previous expectation of $75 per barrel. We expect to produce around 104,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, considering no divestments. For the time being, we still see the production cost at around $16 per barrel of oil equivalent, which is challenging, given the expectation of a persisting inflationary pressure on our costs and the new construction tax. CapEx in E&P is estimated to be around RON 5.8 billion. Alina will provide more details on this later. In Refining & Marketing, the Clean CCS operating result decreased by 18% year-on-year to RON 0.4 billion in the first quarter of 2025, mainly due to lower refining margins. This was partly offset by increased refining utilization rate and higher sales channel margins. Retail sales were flat year-on-year. However, total refined product sales volumes decreased by 7% year-on-year, reflecting lower exports. For the full year 2025, we estimate the indicator refining margin to range between $7 and $8 per barrel. The refinery utilization rate is estimated to be between 90% and 95% due to a 20-day plant shutdown in the second quarter. We estimate demand for retail fuel products in Romania to be slightly above 2024. For total refined product sales, we see a slightly lower year-on-year performance with slightly higher retail fuel sales following demand. In Gas and Power, we recorded lower results in both Gas and Power business lines, leading to a loss of RON 86 million, being further impacted by regulatory framework and market developments. In the gas business, we had good operational performance with higher sales volumes year-on-year. However, a lower contribution was achieved year-on-year, reflecting declining margins on both equity and third-party acquisition gas, partly compensated by higher margin from the gas extracted from storage. The power business continued to be significantly affected by the changes in the legislation introduced starting April 2024 and reflected higher power overtaxation and higher gas costs in the quarter. We achieved good results from the balancing and ancillary services market as well as from volumes bought from third parties. The Brazi power plant generated 1.2 terawatt hour in the first quarter, covering 9% of Romania's generation mix. For the full year 2025, our total gas sales volumes are envisaged to decrease, mainly on lower supply and trading opportunities. The net electrical output is expected to be stable year-on-year. Please let me now hand over to Alina for more details on the financial results of the first quarter of 2025.

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#4

Thank you, Christina, and good afternoon also from my side. I will continue the presentation, Slide 11, starting with some highlights on the income statement and also presenting key developments in our cash flow statement. Group Clean operating result decreased by 29% year-on-year to RON 1.3 billion with higher result in E&P and lower results in the downstream divisions. The clean consolidation line was RON 154 million in the first quarter of 2025, mainly as a result of the gas volumes expected from storage. For the first quarter of 2025, we recorded inventory holding losses of RON 5 million compared to RON 23 million of gains in the first quarter of 2024. We also recorded net special charges of RON 15 million. For comparison, in the first quarter of 2024, we recorded net special charges of RON 193 million, mainly driven by the net temporary effects from power forward contracts. In the first quarter of 2025, the net income attributable to stockholders decreased by 24% year-on-year to RON 1.1 billion. The 0.5% tax on revenue introduced in 2024 amounted to around RON 51 million, mostly booked in the Refining and Marketing segment. As for the newly introduced 0.5% tax on constructions, we booked in the first quarter around RON 20 million, mostly in Exploration and Production division. With regards to our cash flow statement, in the first quarter of 2025, the cash generated from operating activities before net working capital movement was 23% lower year-on-year at RON 2.2 billion. Working capital changes led to a cash inflow of RON 445 million in the first quarter of 2025 compared to RON 124 million in the first quarter of 2024. The higher cash inflows reflect mainly higher liabilities related acquisitions of petroleum products, gas and electricity. Consequently, the operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2025 amounted to RON 2.7 billion compared to RON 3 billion in the previous year. Our net payment for investing activities amounted to RON 1.6 billion, an increase of 44% year-on-year. This mainly reflects a cash outflow for organic CapEx amounted to RON 1.4 billion and a net cash outflow for investment in government bonds of RON 0.2 billion. The net cash position, including leases, decreased to RON 8.1 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2025 versus RON 14.4 billion at the end of March 2024. Our base dividends for the financial year 2024 amounting to RON 2.8 billion will be paid starting June 1, 2025. Moving now to Slide 12. Total CapEx for the first 3 months of 2025 was RON 1.4 billion, 44% higher year-on-year. 75% of this amount was spent in exploration and production, mainly for the Neptun Deep project. In addition, we finalized the drilling of 6 new wells and sidetracks and performed 115 workover jobs. In Refining and Marketing, investments increased by 86% to almost RON 300 million, mainly as a result of projects related to the transition to low and zero carbon activities, such as SAF/HVO unit and e-mobility as well as preparation works for the 20-day refinery shutdown in May. In Gas and Power, we invested RON 50 million mainly for the finalization of the acquisition of 100% shares in OMV Gas and Marketing & Trading Hungary and for investments in Brazi power plant. For full year 2025, assuming a predictable and competitive regulatory and fiscal environment, we maintain the guidance provided in February. We plan organic CapEx of around RON 8 billion, more than 25% higher year-on-year. Additionally, potential inorganic CapEx is estimated at up to RON 0.6 billion, mainly in connection to the M&A transactions in Gas and Power segment announced in 2024. Let me move to outlook on Slide 13. We have presented already our expectations for the relevant indicators for 2025. As a result, this year, in the context of higher planned investments, we expect the free cash flow before dividends to be negative, decreasing further our net cash position as planned. We are closely monitoring events on the global agenda and permanently assess their impact on our business. For now, the assumptions and targets communicated at the beginning of the year for the period 2026-2027 still hold. Depending on how the context evolves in the coming months, we will provide an update guidance as appropriate. We are confident that our strong financial position and integrated business model will help us navigate in this volatile environment. With this, we conclude our presentation, and thank you for your attention. We are now available for your questions.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] And now we're going to take our first question. And it comes the line of Ioana Andrei from Alpha Bank Romania.

Ioana Andrei

analyst
#6

I have a couple of questions. First, regarding gas regulation. Can you disclose the volumes required to be sold at the regulated prices for the full year and the first quarter of 2026. Second, regarding the oil prices and obviously the current difficult context, if you could please share with us your view regarding the potential evolution of prices, what are your main scenarios? And what would trigger an impairment given the lower current guidance of $70 per barrel versus around $80 per barrel last year? And third, you mentioned for this year, 2 outages in the second quarter, 1 for the refinery and 1 for Brazi power plant. Can you share with us an estimated negative impact in the second quarter? And last, maybe a clarification regarding the windfall tax on the power side. This taxation will end in the second quarter, right, from my understanding, should end in the second quarter. Is there any reason to suggest otherwise? That's all from my end.

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#7

I didn't get the last question.

Christina Verchere

executive
#8

No, okay. Ioana, thank you for your questions. Maybe with regards to gas regulations and volumes on the regulated market, Alina will cover that. I'll cover oil prices. Alina will trigger impairments and then the outages as well. Just your last question, if I'm correct, yes, you are correct that the windfall tax is due to end at the second -- at the end of the second quarter, that is our understanding as well. And will be much welcome when it comes. So maybe with that, Alina, maybe you take the first question?

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#9

And I'll start with the first question on the regulated volumes. So on -- with regards to the regulated volumes to households and district heating companies, we have had for Q1 2025, 3.3 terawatt hour, for Q2 2025, 2.5 terawatt hour. And for full year, we estimate somewhere around 10 terawatt hours. We cannot provide any figures for Q1 2026.

Christina Verchere

executive
#10

On oil prices, obviously, you can see that we have lowered our outlook for the full year by $5 anticipating, obviously, a lower price in the second, third and fourth quarter overall. So I mean this is our thoughts for 2025. Anything for '26 and beyond, we would come forward later at the end of the year and beginning of next year with regards to that overall. I mean I think my one comment is having been in the oil and gas industry for many years, ups and downs is something that we are used to. We know that we need to respond to them. We are responding to them. As I mentioned, we have a lot of cost focus going on in the company because we do have decline in commodity prices, where we have increasing costs because of the inflation for the past few years, and we have many initiatives underway to look to address that to continue to make the company resilient at lower prices. And obviously, we have strong financial strength going forward. Alina, on triggers for impairments?

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#11

Yes. So when it comes to impairment, I mean, generally, first thing we do, of course, we work very hard on the cost side. And we have a lot of programs going on to address this in all business segments, but -- and of course, the E&P is even a front runner from this perspective. So first, we work on the cost side because this has a very important effect. Now when we look a bit on the breakeven price for operating cash flow breakeven for our E&P traditional portfolio is somewhere at $30 per barrel. That's the breakeven operating cash flow. Now at this stage, we don't see an impairment based on what we see to date. We will continue to monitor very closely what's happening every quarter. And of course, if there is any update with regards to that, we will come back with any additional information. Now if you want to have a reference of what is the basis for our mid-term planning assumptions and impairment test right now, we disclosed in the Note 2 of our financial statements, exact oil price assumptions. And this goes in real terms, somewhere from $73 to below $70 by 2030. So we were not at $80 anyway in our planning so far, but we'll continue monitoring this. And if there is anything, of course, we will come back. I'll continue with the shutdowns.

Christina Verchere

executive
#12

Shutdowns.

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#13

Yes. So when it comes to the shutdowns, indeed, we have Petrobrazi shutdown that is planned in May for 20 days. From today's perspective, we see not a significant impact. We talked about the CapEx somewhere below EUR 15 million and similarly an EBIT below EUR 15 million mostly from margin loss for the 20 days of shutdown, which is a normal intervention every 2 years, the coking and catalytic replacement generally. When it comes to Brazi power plant shutdown, also we talked about the CapEx below EUR 10 million.

Christina Verchere

executive
#14

Ioana, I think I answered your fourth clarification at the start. So hopefully, that covers all of you -- all of your points.

Operator

operator
#15

And the question comes from the line of Oleg Galbur from ODDO BHF.

Oleg Galbur

analyst
#16

I have several. I will start with a follow-up on the upstream segment. I assume that due to a strong vertical integration Petrom is less exposed to the oil price volatility, but still, could you maybe share with us under which oil price scenario would you consider slowing down drilling activities? And how much flexibility do you have in cutting upstream CapEx without triggering a much sharper decline of production? And then on the OpEx per BOE. With the euro now strengthening against the dollar and the euro, RON exchange rate being quite stable, do you expect a reversal of the upward trend seen in the OpEx per BOE in the previous quarters? Or should we expect something else? Maybe you can comment on this? And lastly, on the cost-cutting program, which you mentioned earlier, OMV was today talking about its efficiency improvement program, which is expected to contribute some EUR 0.5 billion to the operating cash flows by 2027. And I would assume that Petrom is part of this program. So I was hoping that you might be able also to provide some numbers to quantify the expected impact on the operating cash flow on Petrom side. That would be it for now.

Christina Verchere

executive
#17

Okay. Thank you for your question, Oleg. I will take part of your first question with regards to just the overall robustness of the drilling program as well as sort of CapEx flexibility? And then Alina, if you have anything to add to that, of course, please do. And then maybe if Alina, you can take exposure to forex exchange and the overall cost programs that we are doing. I mean, overall, 2 points I would make, Oleg, is that our drilling program and our workover programs are some of our strongest investment projects that we have. And in part, that is driven really by the ability to get production fast and tie it in fast into a very established existing infrastructure that we have. So they do really stay robust, both on the oil side as well as on the gas side. So I don't think you would necessarily see a desire to cut there and given the financial situation, obviously, of the firm you would want to think a lot about that because it does impact your decline rates if you stop that activity. Now other factors have come into play. And obviously, the other factor that we have, it is some of the most flexible CapEx with regards to that, but it's also the most attractive CapEx. So I think when you start to look at CapEx, do you go there first, not necessarily, in my mind, because it's just of its attractiveness overall and the robustness of its economics. And as Alina said, our longer-term forecast is actually -- is not sitting up at 80 and 85 more at the 70 and lower than that. So that's what it to take into account in our economics. I don't know, Alina, you wanted to add anything to that?

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#18

I will continue, Oleg, from my side. I'll continue with the second and third questions, which are connected somehow because, yes, of course, the exchange rate has an impact on our production cost per barrel, especially, and we could see some potential effects from that. However, that's really not in our control. So what we are focusing is really on the cost programs. And yes, we have massive cost programs everywhere in E&P and in R&M in corporate functions and so on. All these cost programs are focusing on really reducing...

Operator

operator
#19

Yes. Participants, just give us a moment. Yes, speakers, please proceed.

Christina Verchere

executive
#20

Ola, can everybody hear us now?

Operator

operator
#21

Yes. And we have Oleg's line in.

Oleg Galbur

analyst
#22

Can you hear me?

Christina Verchere

executive
#23

Do you hear us?

Operator

operator
#24

Yes, speakers, we can hear you.

Christina Verchere

executive
#25

Okay. Maybe we just need to check where we got cut off, so apologies for the technological hitch. Oleg, if you're still there? What was the last thing you heard from Alina?

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#26

I will start with the last -- repeating the last question. Okay. So referring to the cost program, I mentioned that we have significant cost programs everywhere in all business segments. And overall, if we want to give a number, although we are really working on it day by day, and we hope to improve further we will -- we are talking about approximately EUR 150 million if we compare 2027 with 2024. That would be the number we are working on. And yes, we are -- as I said, we hope to -- might go even further than that.

Operator

operator
#27

Oleg, excuse me, if you have further questions, you're welcome to ask.

Oleg Galbur

analyst
#28

Yes. But can you hear me, please?

Christina Verchere

executive
#29

Yes. Now yes. We couldn't hear you previously, Oleg.

Oleg Galbur

analyst
#30

Because I disconnected. I thought that it was on my end, the problem. Yes. I would have one more question on the GMP on the Gas and Power segment. Could you help us understand to which extent the power business results in the first quarter was impacted by the ongoing regulation. In other words, what impact could we expect from the cancellation of this regulation as of the end of June? And also, maybe you can say a few words about the power market environment in April now that we saw significantly lower gas prices. Is it helping to which extent whatever you can say, it would be very helpful.

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#31

Okay. Let me try to give a bit. So Q1, as you could see, we had a negative result in Gas and Power. That is primarily driven by Power in the context of having regulated fixed power prices while gas prices increased significantly. And this is driven indeed by the regulation in addition to that, having quite a significant taxation level, so this contribution to energy transition fund for power. So this is quite challenging. We expect this to continue in Q2, but to a lower extent, but still Q2 will be very challenging. And we see after end of Q2 when this regulation will disappear and will be back to the gas market -- to the free gas market, we see our overall Gas and Power segment coming to positive territories. Yes. Now always when we look at Gas and Power, we should think about the integrated business model that we have because the power plant is run on an optimization model, and we always do the calculation and see what is better to put the gas in the power plant or to sell it as such. And overall, because of exemption from overtaxation we had overall positive impact from running the power plant. Otherwise, we wouldn't have run it because we are out of this much mechanism. So we are not obliged to sell quantities on the market. We sell them because at overall company level, we were positive.

Oleg Galbur

analyst
#32

Understood. And anything on the April -- on the power market environment in April, is it different from...

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#33

Yes, might be a bit. Specific to us, you should consider that we had in April this shutdown of the Brazi, which was for 19 days for -- so almost 20 days, we had full shutdown. And then for another 8 days, we had half of the capacity being shut down. So that to be taken into consideration. Otherwise, it's nothing specific to April.

Operator

operator
#34

And the next question comes from the line of Daniela Mandru from Swiss Capital.

Daniela Mandru

analyst
#35

I have only one more question. Regarding the refined product sales. I've seen your explanation that they decreased by 7% year-on-year in this quarter because of lower exports. I think this is the first time in many quarters that I'm seeing this decrease. So something -- I believe something happened there. And more important, what is going to happen in the future with these sales?

Christina Verchere

executive
#36

So yes, there was a decline in sales. We had quite a -- I mean we've always actually been an exporter, but actually more recently, we actually were exporting actually to the Ukraine and others have been entering that market at the same time more recently. Whereas we had come in, I think, quite quickly into the market after the situation in Ukraine has been established partly, I think just pure proximity gave us the competitive advantage into that market.

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#37

Daniela, just that overall, we see a softening of demand generally speaking. So this is also on the retail, we are not on lower than previous year. We are still on an increasing but lower than we have seen in the past. This we see in the commercial business as well overall because the economy is slowing down versus what we used to see in the past. So there is an effect coming from that, I would say, as well.

Daniela Mandru

analyst
#38

Okay. And the outlook for the full year. I think your budget assumed that a slight increase year-on-year for the full year for these sales. I think now it should be changed the outlook on this segment.

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#39

If we look into the outlook that we published this morning, we say the refined product sales are forecasted to be slightly lower year-on-year, previously stable. So we moved from previously stable to slightly lower. Always our budget is done some -- a few months ago, it's announced like before AGM and so on. So there is a timing difference, and there is quite a high volatility that we see.

Daniela Mandru

analyst
#40

Yes. Okay. I know you discussed about -- already discussed about OpEx, but it's pretty high for now. Should we expect to remain around $17 for the full year?

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#41

Our expectation, we keep around $16 per barrel for full year, and this is on the basis of cost programs we are ongoing. And yes, we -- maybe we have some additional production as well. We will see. We are working hard to keep it at around $6 per barrel right now, Daniela.

Daniela Mandru

analyst
#42

Okay. And now regarding the impact of these shutdowns in the second quarter. You mentioned CapEx of EUR 50 million for Petrobrazi and of EUR 10 million for Brazi. Sorry, I do not...

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#43

Daniela, EUR 15 million. Petrobrazi, EUR 15 million, 1-5 million.

Daniela Mandru

analyst
#44

EUR 15 million.

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#45

EUR 15 million. Yes, EUR 15 million.

Daniela Mandru

analyst
#46

Not EUR 50 million? Okay.

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#47

No, no, no.

Daniela Mandru

analyst
#48

And Brazi would be shut down for how much?

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#49

Brazi was already. So it ended end of April for 20 days, almost 20 days full capacity and 8 days for half capacity.

Daniela Mandru

analyst
#50

And regarding the -- now that the oil price is down, what are your expectations for the gas price, let's say, at the international level CEGH price, something like this.

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#51

On the gas price, we have a lot of restrictions. We don't give much transparency around that. What we can see, we continue to see and to expect a lot of volatility going on, on the gas prices, depends a lot on supply sources. And that's where it is. We see some changes, for example, in Q1 2025, we saw basically, BRM had a premium around EUR 3 per megawatt versus CEGH, which was quite different than we have seen and experienced in 2024. So quite a lot of volatility. It depends significantly on supply sources, but we cannot provide any exact figures when it comes to gas price.

Operator

operator
#52

[Operator Instructions] And now we're taking the question from Laura Simion from BRD GSG.

Laura Simion

analyst
#53

I have just one additional question regarding the special dividend. And if you could detail on what was driven positive or negative decision for this year, what are you expecting to see in the next few months to make a decision?

Alina-Gabriela Popa

executive
#54

So we are -- for taking a decision if we give special dividends, we will consider 3 elements. First one is related to the changes to the fiscal and regulatory regime in Romania, I mean, we see -- and we expect -- we see the situation of the state budget, we are looking at it, we see potential changes post election. So we need to understand very clear what are these changes and to what extent they affect us. That's the further element. The second is definitely the progress of our investments, significant investment plans. We will assess. We'll see where we are with all the projects ongoing. And the sub-dimension of course, it's around evolution of the market environment and our financial performance in the first part of the year. Clearly, we are a very strong company. We are on a net cash basis and being competitive on the dividend, it's important to us, but we will assess all 3 dimensions deciding if we give special dividend somewhere mid of the year.

Operator

operator
#55

There are no further questions for today. That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now all disconnect, have a nice day.

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