ONE Gas (OGS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and welcome to the ONE Gas 2026 Financial Guidance Conference Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Erin Dailey. Please go ahead, Ms. Dailey.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our 2026 financial guidance conference call. Our guidance presentation can be found on the Investor page in the Financials and Filings section at www.onegas.com. This call is being webcast live and a replay will be available later today. After our prepared remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. A reminder that statements made during this call that might include ONE Gas expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements and are covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, each as amended. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filings. Joining me on the call this morning are Sid McAnnally, President and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Sighinolfi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Curtis Dinan, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. And now I'll turn the call over to Sid.

Thanks, Erin, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us this morning to discuss our 2026 and 5-year financial outlook. The financial guidance we released yesterday underscores our commitment to creating value for our stakeholders as we meet rising customer demand across our service territory. Our strategic plan positions us to capitalize on emerging opportunities while preserving robust balance sheet fundamentals and strengthening our roughly 3:1 affordability advantage over electricity as an energy source. Driven by our strong growth trajectory and proven performance, we are pleased to announce an increased long-term EPS growth outlook of 5% to 7%, reflecting our confidence in continued value creation. As highlighted on Slide 7 of our guidance presentation, we have consistently delivered long-term EPS CAGRs in the 6% to 7% range. Since becoming an independent company in 2014, we have met or surpassed the midpoint of our EPS guidance each year, underscoring our track record of reliable performance and disciplined execution. We see strong growth potential as an ongoing economic development continues to accelerate within our service territory. We are strategically positioned to capitalize on significant large load demand opportunities emerging across our 3-state footprint, which Curtis will speak to in a moment. These projects enable us to expand our infrastructure in a disciplined manner, minimizing capital risk while delivering clear affordability advantages to our residential customers. Now I'll turn it over to Chris to discuss the details of our 2026 and 5-year financial outlook. Chris?

Thanks, Sid. And for 2026, we project net income to range from $294 million to $302 million, with earnings per diluted share of $4.65 to $4.77, an approximate 8% increase over the midpoint of our latest 2025 EPS guidance. As Sid noted, we have raised our long-term EPS CAGR to 5% to 7%. Consistent with our long-standing practice, we utilized the midpoint of our updated 2025 guidance as the starting point for our new 5-year outlook. The uplift is driven by ongoing customer growth, the constructive accounting change affected by Texas House Bill 4384, and our derisked and increasingly self-funded financing model. Our forecasted 5-year compound annual net income growth rate remains 7% to 9%. Driven by robust growth and ongoing system integrity initiatives, we plan to invest approximately $800 million in capital next year, $50 million more than our 2025 plan. These investments are projected to support an average 2026 rate base of $6.3 billion. Over the next 5 years, we anticipate total capital spending of $4.3 billion, supporting 7% to 9% compound annual rate base growth. Notably, our current plan increases 5-year capital investment by about 7.5% compared to last year's outlook, while reducing total equity financing needs by roughly 35% as we transition toward a more self-funded model. Safety and system integrity remains central to our strategy. We expect 2026 through 2030 financing needs of approximately $1.3 billion, down from the $1.5 billion contemplated in the last 5-year plan, with roughly 30% of this amount to be in the form of equity issuances. As a reminder, we currently have forward sale agreements covering approximately 2.9 million shares of common stock outstanding at an average price of about $78 per share. If all forward shares were settled at the end of the year, we would receive net proceeds of approximately $226 million. We plan to settle $205 million of this amount at year-end and carry the balance for settlement at year-end 2026. Regarding debt financing, we regularly assess capital market opportunities to tailor debt issuances to our annual needs while maintaining our regulatory capital structure at its historic ratios. Our funding model benefits from a reduction in the Fed funds rate as it reduces the cost of commercial paper borrowings, which we use to finance investments prior to their formal inclusion in rate base. We have modeled a gradual normalization of monetary policy in our guidance outlook the last 2 years. And the aggregate 150-basis-point reduction in Fed funds rate over the last 15 months has come ahead of the pace and schedule we initially anticipated. We continue to expect an incremental 100 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2027 to match the Fed's self-described neutral level and have formally assumed 125-basis-point reduction in 2026 occurring in the middle of the year. We continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet and are comfortably within the adjusted CFO to debt range for our current investment-grade credit ratings. With the execution of this plan, we expect our adjusted CFO to debt ratio to improve from approximately 19% this year to roughly 20% by 2030, further enhancing our financing efficiency and flexibility. Finally, we anticipate delivering a 1% to 2% compound annual dividend growth rate through 2030, subject to Board approval. Our consistent track record of delivering dividend increases since becoming an independent company reflects our commitment to shareholder returns, and our strategic plan positions us to sustain this growth while continuing to invest in the business' long-term expansion. Now I'll turn things over to Curtis to speak more about our growth expectations, capital deployment plans and management of operating and maintenance expenses.

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. First, a quick regulatory update. A partial settlement has been reached in the Texas rate case with a $15 million revenue increase, our actual equity capital structure of 59.9% and a 9.8% return on equity. A hearing on the issue of consolidation was held before the administrative law judge on November 5 and the partial settlement was filed with the Texas Railroad Commission on November 19. The administrative law judge is scheduled to make a recommendation in mid-December and the Texas Railroad Commission is scheduled to render a decision on the settlement and the issue of consolidation in January. The next full rate case we plan to file is Oklahoma in 2027 as required by tariff. In the meantime, we will continue leveraging interim mechanisms across our service territories to ensure timely recovery of capital investments, support ongoing growth and maintain the safety of our system. Turning to operations. We have reduced the O&M CAGR in our guidance to a range of 3% to 4%, down from the 4% increase expected in the prior year's forecast. Due in part to the success of our program to in-source certain positions, our teams have continued to mitigate the rise in operating expenses. Our new coworkers have not only replaced contractors in certain areas, but can also be deployed to do other work as needed, increasing efficiency and improving service for our customers. As we've noted, we will continue to look for similar opportunities as we enter the new year. We are confident that ongoing economic development in our service areas will drive continued residential housing growth, resulting in sustained demand for natural gas. We expect total meter sets this year to be roughly in line with levels we've seen over the last 2 years, which were meaningfully above prepandemic levels. Housing demand continues to outpace available supply in our markets, and leading indicators, including developer activity and permitting are gaining positive momentum. Over the past several years, we have steadily scaled the business, allowing us to complete key system integrity projects and meet growing customer demand. We prioritize capital investment in pipeline replacement initiatives, enhancing the safety, reliability and environmental performance of our natural gas system. At the same time, we are actively pursuing opportunities to support economic growth and serve new customers throughout our service territory. For example, Texas Gas Service has reached commercial terms with a customer to deliver natural gas for 100 megawatts of on-site generation at an advanced manufacturing facility near El Paso, Texas. This is the first phase of a project that has the potential for regional expansion and significant high-tech job creation, growth made possible in part by reliable, affordable natural gas. We expect the project to be in service in the third quarter of 2026. We are also advancing negotiations on another project that is designed to supply natural gas to support up to 1.3 gigawatts of electric generation. In addition to meeting power generation needs, the planned pipeline can serve additional customers and strengthen the region's economic competitiveness. We will provide further updates once our agreement is signed. These are great examples of the types of projects that make perfect sense for our company as they both serve a current customer need and put us in a strong position to deliver the energy infrastructure that supports additional regional growth. We are actively engaging with manufacturers, electric generation providers and data center developers across our 3-state footprint as they seek reliable, efficient and cost-effective energy solutions to power their growth initiatives. We are pursuing these opportunities with a disciplined capital deployment, ensuring that investments are strategically targeted to minimize risk exposure while preserving the affordability of our services for residential customers. This approach supports sustainable returns and positions us to capitalize on emerging opportunities without compromising financial stability. With that, I'll turn it back to Sid for closing remarks.

Thank you both. Our company has a solid track record of delivering the returns indicated by our guidance. Looking toward 2026, we are poised to capture new growth opportunities, maintain safety, control O&M expenses and uphold affordability for our customers, all while providing attractive returns for our shareholders. These priorities position us to build on our success and achieve even greater results in the year ahead. As we conclude, we extend our sincere gratitude to every team member across the company whose dedication and hard work make our success possible. Operator, we're now ready for questions.

[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Gabe Moreen with Mizuho.

I wanted to ask about, I think, the cadence of EPS growth. In terms of just the shaping of sort of your expectations, it looks like growth for the range for -- is a little bit above the range for '26. Maybe if you can just speak to that in terms of some of the factors and how linear it will be versus lumpy?

Gabe, it's Chris. We had noted some items last year that are mechanical in nature that provide some degree of nonlinearity in the plan. If you recall, we have a statutorily required rate case in Oklahoma in 2027. And unlike the GRIP filings and rate case cadence in Texas, we don't have a PBR in the same year as a general rate case in Oklahoma. So that will provide some degree of moderation relative to the trend line in '27. And then we had noted that we have one remaining low coupon note that matures in 2030, in the second quarter of 2030, and so 2030 would have a refinancing item. That's a 2% coupon on $300 million notional value. And so that's another item depending on what you assume in that year. That would provide -- those are the 2 items I would just flag to you. As you see, we have a plus 8% expectation for 2026.

And maybe another one for you, just around the dividend growth here. If you look at, I think, projected out through 2030, you may be falling below the end of your kind of payout ratio. Can you just talk about whether that payout ratio that you, I think, laid out last year still holds, whether you'd consider accelerating the dividend, or are you really focused on some of the internal financing growth that you discussed on the call?

Yes, it's a good question, Gabe. If you'll recall, when we separated from ONEOK in 2014, we established a targeted payout ratio range of 55% to 65%. And in effect, that was where the peer universe was at that time as. We've thought about changes in the landscape that have transpired since that time, Curtis has spoken about both the diversity and the aggregate amount of growth opportunities in our region, and we think about the most efficient way to finance that, and we look at the peer set, there is a wider payout ratio range present today than existed at that point. And we believe it's prudent to moderate that payout ratio over time as you see implied by the guidance. Dividends are subject to the discretion of our Board of Directors. And so we make this plan. We revisit it on a regular cadence. But if you -- you're right to assume, if you trail out the EPS growth rate and the dividend growth rate, you'll find, by the end of the plan, an implied payout ratio in sub-50%. I do think at some point, you'll see significant reacceleration of dividend, but not as contemplated by this plan in the 5-year window.

[Operator Instructions] Now I turn to David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

I was wondering is there something structural that lowers the amount of equity that you need to finance this plan versus the prior plan? Is that new 30% level, is that something that you'd expect to kind of continue going forward as an overall split?

David, it's Chris again. Well, there's a couple of things going on mechanically. As you think about the prior question from Gabe, the payout ratio is declining. And so, in effect, when we think about the amount of retained equity that we can apply towards rate base growth, that's getting larger every year in the plan. We get, as Curtis noted, our actual capital or historically have been successful at getting our actual capital into rates in all 3 jurisdictions. And broadly speaking, that's a 60% equity, 40% debt ratio. And so as the business gets larger, we can address it with more debt appropriately as the rate base growth. And so when you think about just the equity component, more of it can be self-funded unless that it has to be externally financed. That's the biggest component that's changing over the course of the plan. You'll see we noted $205 million expectation for equity forward settlements at the end of this year. That's down from the $245 million we settled at the end of last year, and we generally would expect a decline in cadence as you move through the plan.

Okay. Got it. That makes sense. And then I was curious, is there a potential timing that you're willing to give on that 1.3 gigawatt potential opportunity? And I'm wondering also maybe more broadly, for some of these large customer opportunities, is there a way you're able to frame the financial impact and opportunity for you?

Yes, David, this is Curtis. So the timing of that project is still part of the negotiations that are going on. I think we've got a pretty good sense of when it will be, but it's a larger project, and it's a longer build to get to that point. For our customer, it's actually a multiphase development that will occur over a number of years. So that one is a little further out in the 5-year plan in terms of when we would actually be starting service with it. Then your second question was around what, remind me?

Oh, sure. For some of these large customer opportunities, curious if you're able to frame the financial impact or financial opportunity as some of these come through?

Yes. So we have modeled into the 5-year plan and the capital, some of these projects that we have very clear line of sight into and that we're anticipating in the near term. But as I commented during the third quarter call, many of these projects are either fully funded or partially funded by the customer. So everything that we're doing to serve these customers falls in line with our tariff that we have in each respective state. And depending upon the level of capital required, there's a portion, and in some cases, all of the capital is funded by the customer upfront. So that lessens the overall strain. And when I talked about derisking our capital profile, derisking these projects, that's the main tool to support doing that.

Yes, David, this is Sid. I think that your first question and Gabe's question both frame a really important part of this plan. As Curtis points out, we're engaging in service of these opportunities across our service territory, but we're doing so in a way that doesn't expose us to risk. The plan is really balanced in the way it thinks about payout ratio and balance sheet strength and leaning into these opportunities that are presented by economic activity in our service territory, but also considers affordability. So you've got this balancing that goes on across the spectrum, and we think this plan really hits the sweet spot in all of those areas. We are able to maintain what is attractive to our investors about being in a regulated business and still pursue opportunities that expose us to the economic development that's going on in our service territory, all while balancing affordability and the strength of our balance sheet. So that's why we talk about this in a more holistic way. We think when you look at the plan as a whole, it's really strong going into 2026.

We now turn to Selman Akyol with Stifel

Just following up on sort of the last question there and thinking about these opportunities. I don't know, is there any way you can sort of frame up, just maybe put bookends around what the size is that you're looking at? I presume most of it is in Texas, but can you talk about the other service territories? And then should we also assume this is all behind the meter?

Selman, this is Curtis. And first, the opportunities are across all 3 states. And it's -- right now, I would say we have projects in the range of 25 different things that we're looking at. All of those are in different phases. Some are in preliminary discussions and some are at the other end of the spectrum, like what I described of reaching commercial terms on the project in El Paso. So the timing of those, when those negotiations will be completed really is driven by the customer and what their needs are. They're making much larger capital investments. And so the period of time for them to do that is, in many cases, greater than the length of time for us to do our part of the project. The El Paso project that I mentioned, we've just reached commercial terms, and we expect that project to be completed and in service by the third quarter of next year. So that's obviously a much smaller project, much smaller build that serves a really -- again, 100 megawatts of power generation that, that customer needs. So there's other ones that I've mentioned in the past that are even a little bit smaller than that. There was a generation combination RNG project, that's about 25 megawatts of generation, so on the smaller end, and in the upper end the one I described at 1.3 gigawatts. So a wide range of projects, a wide range of different statuses that those are in from a commercialization standpoint. But those really are driven by the customer and what their needs are, how quickly they're trying to get to market? But in each of these cases, of the ones that I described as in the range of 25, those are all projects that we know we have the ability to execute on. It leverages our existing system, and it provides other benefits to our system and to our other customers. So working our way through the funnel of trying to identify those projects that we should be involved in and hit all of those marks that I described in my prepared comments, all of those fall into that type of a category.

That concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand it back to the ONE Gas team for closing remarks.

Thank you all again for your interest in ONE Gas. We will be attending the Jefferies Virtual Gas Utilities Conference, the Mizuho Power Energy and Infrastructure Conference, and the Wells Fargo Midstream Energy and Utility Symposium next week in New York and look forward to seeing many of you while in town. As a reminder, our quiet period for the fourth quarter starts when we close our books in early January and extends until we release earnings in mid- to late February. We'll provide details about the conference call at a later date. Have a great day.

This concludes the ONE Gas 2026 Financial Guidance Conference Call and Webcast. You may now disconnect.