Orient Green Power Company Limited (GREENPOWER) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

January 31, 2020

National Stock Exchange of India IN Utilities Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers earnings 42 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Orient Green Power Q3 FY '20 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Suraj Digawalekar from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Suraj Digawalekar;CDR India;Analyst

analyst
#2

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. I welcome all of you to Orient Green Power Company Limited Earnings Call to discuss the performance for the quarter and 9 months ended December 31, 2019. We have with us today, Mr. S. Venkatachalam, CEO and Managing Director; and Mr. K. V. Kasturi, the Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to mention that some of the statements made in today's discussion may be forward looking in nature and may involve risks and uncertainties. Documents relating to our financial performance were e-mailed to all of you earlier and have also been posted on our corporate website. I would now like to hand over the floor to Mr. Venkatachalam. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#3

A very good afternoon to all of you, and I would like to begin by saying that we are glad to announce that we have a PBT of INR 378 lakhs for the 9 month ended September -- I mean, December 2019. And this is despite the fact that, if you recall that we had talked about the -- overall, that this was a subdued wind year. Now if you recall that H1, we had -- we were lower by about 5.6 crore units and this was made up partly, in fact, significantly in Q3, where we had about 1.6 crore units extra and with an -- and overall, we've got a shortfall of about 4 crore units as far as the 9 months period is concerned. Overall, the turnover difference would have been a lot more, but then the REC actually kind of reduced the gap because the REC for the 9-month period traded at an average of INR 1,584, 1-5-8-4, as against INR 1,161 for the corresponding period in the previous year. In fact, for the third quarter, the REC's traded at INR 1,769 as against INR 1,248 in the previous year. And this REC difference almost made up by about INR 11 crores for the 9-month period there -- and thereby restricting the shortfall in the revenue and the EBITDA by about INR 10 crore as compared to the previous year. But then with the finance cost reducing by about INR 39 crore, thanks mainly to the group support for -- by waiving the interest component. We've now reported PBT positive of INR 38 million for the 9-month period for the continuing operations. Now coming to the overall business scenario as far as renewables are concerned. If you recall, about 3 years back, competitive bidding was the most disruptive package introduced about 3 years back, and since then that has been the norm for all the bidders to take part in and participate in various contracts for both the wind and the solar segments. This competitive bidding, in fact, took the prices down to levels of INR 2.43 as far as the wind is concerned and INR 2.44 as far as the solar is concerned. Of course, in this, it is predominantly, I would say, apart from the government taking initiatives to introduce competitive bidding, it was the bidders to blame because they themselves quoted these kind of very low rates. Now taking a cue from this particular competitive bidding, the success of competitive bidding, the government started floating more tenders so as to be able to achieve their 175-gigawatt target, which they set for themselves by 2022. But the thing was the government introduced caps on all the competitive bidding -- various competitive bidding -- bids that were floated by the Solar Energy Corporation of India, SECI, and various other state governments. Now the caps, over a period of time, have acted as deterrents because even the previous rates that people had quoted at even INR 2.70 or close to INR 3, in fact, one of the tenders in Tamil Nadu at INR 3.42, most of them have not been able to achieve financial closure. They have had issues with respect to getting funds from the banks. They have issues in Gujarat with site availability and various other issues because of which most of the projects are lying incomplete well beyond the due date of their completion. And in fact, as a consequence of this, there were a few governments which were threatening to revisit the PPAs because they said the regulator's determined tariffs were far too high when compared to what the bidders themselves had quoted in the range of INR 2.43 to a level of about INR 2.75. So this went on for a little while and that died down because the regulators and the various state governments realized that they cannot carry this forward. But then, in the last year, the Andhra Pradesh government started this particular exercise all over again. They started challenging the bids or the determined tariffs at INR 4.70 and INR 4.80, which was set by the previous government, and they started challenging this and they said that it should no -- it should not be more than INR 2.43, and they stopped all the payments to the various wind energy and solar energy developers. This, obviously, set back numerous investors who had put their, I mean, windmills in the state of Andhra Pradesh, and the payments were also pending for a long time. Obviously, the various investors and the associations went to the High Court and the High Court finally gave an interim order saying that the -- at least, if you are saying INR 2.44, then you should start paying at INR 2.44, and subsequently, we will come up with the final hearing. And actually speaking, the PPA is a sacrosanct document, it is a sovereign document. And if -- even if 1 state revisits it or even if a High Court gives an order in the favor of any of the states, obviously, it will set off a chain reaction in various other states. So we are confident, and there is no way that the PPA can be revisited by various state governments. So it's only a matter of time that the government is forced to recognize the previous PPAs, which have been signed with the Andhra Pradesh government. As a result of this interim order, we did get some amount from AP, but some amount of payment is still expected from them. And in fact, even these payments were actually funded by the central government, who are very keen that the state government should not default on the payments to the various developers. Some funding was arranged from IREDA and this was taken forward and some payments were made. Of course, we were -- we're expecting some more payments to come in the next couple of months as after -- by which time the entire order would be coming from the court saying that the -- upholding the PPA signed tariffs itself. Overall, apart from this, there are a few positives, which I would like to state. The governments are taking now numerous initiatives seeing the kind of lackluster of bids. Even the last bid, which a couple of weeks back, the government had put a cap of INR 2.93, and there was no bidding on that particular bid for the wind energy segment. The government has also recognized the fact that the bidders are unable to -- or the developers are unable to continue the operations because of huge delays in payments from the various DISCOMs. At least, as far as the thermal sector is concerned, in Tamil Nadu, they have forced the Tamil Nadu TANGEDCO to open LCs. In fact, a number of other states are also following suit and are opening LCs for the thermal sector. And soon they will be forced to open LCs for the wind and the solar sectors as well. In fact, the government has threatened the various state governments that they will stop funds to erring states so that -- and kind of they are putting a pressure on them. It's like -- very much like this pressure that they put on the REC trading itself because of which, you can see the result of the REC trading, they are trading well above par. In fact, you may recall that the government had revised the rates of REC to the INR 1,000 base at the floor. But the RECs, as I mentioned in the 9-month period has traded at an average of INR 1,584, which was above the INR 1,500, which was earlier trading when the trades were not really happening to -- when the compliance -- when the obligations were not being fulfilled by the various states. Now with enforcement of the obligations, RECs are trading well. In fact, the large section of REC was trade in the 2 exchanges at INR 2,100 and INR 2,200, respectively. So this is -- this bodes well, and I'm sure that these -- all these issues, I'm once again confident that these will be issues of the past and the payments will come. And once the payments come, as I have been saying, we will be in a position to refinance. Because until we come on regular terms with the banks without being having -- without having any delay, we are likely to -- I mean, the other banks may not take up the case of refinancing. And definitely, there is a scope for huge interest reduction. We've talked to various banks, but they're saying, just become regular, and then we will take up your case. So with this, I would like to leave on a positive -- leave you with a positive note saying that we've had a profitable 9-month period. And with issues, the central government taking huge amount of measures to ensure compliances by the various states, it's only a matter of time when things will look up further. Thank you so much. Over to Kasturi, who will take you through the financials.

K. Kasturi

executive
#4

Thank you, Mr. Venkatachalam. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our earnings call. I'll briefly run you through the -- our financial performance for the period under review, post which we can start the Q&A session. Starting with the top line. The total income for the quarter stood at INR 43 crores as against the INR 34 crores reported during Q3 FY '19, higher by 26%. Growth was largely owing to higher unit generation on the back of steady wind pattern. On 9-month basis, the sales stood at INR 273 crores as against INR 283 crores previous year. As most of you are aware that FY '20 on a whole has had a relatively benign wind season, which in turn impacted our H1 performance. This quarter's performance has helped us to potentially recoup the gap in units generated this year versus last year, although we are still lower by 4 crore units from 5 crore, 5.5 crore at the start of the quarter. And had it not been that, we would have been able to maintain our regular run rate and clock in solid operational performance. EBITDA for the quarter stood at INR 22 crores as against INR 11 crores drawn up during corresponding period last year. On 9-month basis, though EBITDA remained largely stable, stood at INR 206 crores as against INR 210 crores generated during 9 months FY '19. Depreciation for the quarter stood at INR 29 crores as against INR 27 crores, Q2 -- Q3 FY '19, while 9-month basis, related to same, at INR 86 crores. Interest outgo for the quarter, INR 38 crores as against INR 48 crores for Q3 FY '19, while on 9-month basis interest expense stood at INR 116 crores as against INR 115 crores outgo during 9 months FY '19, low by 23%. We have been working diligently towards [reducing] our debts in recent years. We have been successful in lowering our debt over the last 5 years. We even exited loss-making biomass business, utilized part of the profits from it reducing our debt. Our discussions with the bankers are progressing well. We hope the same will fructify in lowering our credit -- interest costs and in turn help us boost our cash flows and liquidity. To conclude, I would like to reiterate what Mr. Venkatachalam spoke earlier. We believe that the sector fundamentals are very strong. The near-term challenges will get addressed in short term. Government's focus on increasing the share of renewal energy in the overall country mix, coupled with our own strategic initiatives position us well and create value for our stakeholders. Thank you.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] We take the first question from the line of [ Manish Bakshi ], individual investor.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#6

Can you please explain to me what exactly [ acts as ] profit and loss from discontinued operations?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#7

Continued and discontinued operations.

K. Kasturi

executive
#8

Yes. Continuing operations is nothing but our wind operation. And discontinued operation is basically the biomass operation, still -- small operation still there, that is a different section.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#9

And when do we expect this to become 0?

K. Kasturi

executive
#10

Maybe in -- because we are in the process of exiting all biomass units and in the process of disposal. Maybe in another, I think, 2 quarters, maybe by June end, we should be able to come out of the entire thing.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#11

And what changed in current quarter that we have posted a profit in the discontinued operations?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#12

See, basically, as I had explained, one is, okay, despite the lower wind that we had, the main difference is the interest cost reduction by about INR 39 crores, largely supported by the interest waiver from the group because there is a group loan sitting in the books, which over the last few quarters, they have waived the interest. So that makes also -- because that group loan, in any case, we were not paying this particular loan, the interest part of it because the -- it is [up-selling] to the bank loans that we've had, the INR 1,100 crores, across the various SPVs. So the group has decided to waive the loan component -- the interest component of that. Though the loan is still sitting in the book, the interest component has been waived. So we're not accumulating any further interest as far as the group loan is concerned. And not -- we are not been repaying them also over the last so many years, we have not repaid them the...

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#13

Okay. And of the total 80 DISCOM dues, what is the total? And how much have we received as of now?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#14

Yes. See, the total as of -- was about INR 56 crores and we received about INR 16 crores and in the process of receiving some more. So the outstanding as on date is about INR 40 crores that is left with us.

Operator

operator
#15

[Operator Instructions] Next question is from the line of [ Benny John, ] individual investor.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#16

Sir, I've been attending your conference call for some -- last many years, and I have invested in your -- in our company also -- not your, our company, from the initial -- right after the IPO onwards. So my total cost is around INR 12, and out of that, INR 10 has been wiped out. So this is an investment which has actually broken me. So second thing -- second -- it's not a question. Now when can I expect at least my cost back? INR 12 is my cost price. Can I expect it this year, this financial year, this all [I can see it] back? And second thing, when I look at the shareholding of the key managerial personnel, all of you are holding only very less shares. See, Nonexecutive Director, Mr. Krishnakumar, 30,000 shares; [ S. Srinivasan, ] 1,000 shares; and Mr. Ganapathi, Nonexecutive Director, he has sold some shares. See, if you people are so confident about this company, why don't you buy more at this INR 2? It's available at a damn cheap price at INR 2. Why don't you people buy at least 5 lakh or 10 lakh shares in the -- from the market if you're so confident about your -- this company. Only 1 person I see more than -- holding 1 lakh shares is Mr. Shivaraman, Executive Vice Chairman. All other people are holding very few shares and this is what -- I don't know what is the future of this company.

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#17

Yes. I'd like to, I mean, take on this and answer this. See, basically, if you see over the last few years, we've had various issues, which we've been talking about. I mean, the -- definitely, the sector was very, very promising for -- in the initial stages and also it -- they are again looking to revive this sector over a period of -- because the government has realized that things are kind of challenging for the various investors in this particular sector, and they are looking at a 175-gigawatt target. And in fact, there are areas where they're even talking about 450 gigawatts. Okay, those are very far-fetched ambitions. So even if the sector goes to about 125 or 130 gigawatts by 2022, it is still a very promising outlook for the next couple of years, at least. Now what has gone wrong over the last few years, first and foremost, the grid back-down was a big, big issue, which really set us back by about INR 200 crores, INR 300 crores -- INR 250 crores to INR 300 crores in Tamil Nadu. For consecutive 4 years, they were not able to evacuate till they mastered the entire thing along with help from the various associations and the wind developers itself in Tamil Nadu by doing a scheduling and forecasting by strengthening the grid itself in the Tamil Nadu regions when the winds -- from the wind-rich areas to the consuming areas. Then -- sale of power outside the state. And also a lot of effort from the associations of bringing people from Europe to educate them as to how they are able to take more infirm power from wind and solar into the grid -- into their grids. And so all these have helped and Tamil Nadu is now evacuating about 95% of the wind and solar power in the state as against, for a few years, it was about 60%. Now having said that, then, okay, we also had a biomass business where the governments were pretty unsupportive in terms of tariff increases when the fuel prices were going up. So as a prudent measure, we exited the biomass business to come out of this particular area. In fact, when the wind business was very low, the RECs were also not trading. And at one point in time, we had about INR 80 crores of RECs in our stocks and thereby impacting our cash flows very, very heavily. The management, if you really see, they have really bailed us out. They have overall invested about 70 -- INR 700 crores. In fact, in the loan book itself you'll find about -- with interest, about INR 444 crores is sitting as far as group loans are concerned, which clearly shows -- I will not comment on the individual shareholders, which is a personal thing on -- but the group has funded this much amount that is why you find the group loans -- the internal loan component itself sitting on the books, which they have bailed out each time we were not able to pay the banks, they have bailed us out. And over the last 7 or 8 quarters, they have waived the interest component also. So if you really see, the intrinsic value of the share is far, far higher, in fact -- because there are certain -- like IDBI was selling in the last couple of quarters. They have their own pressures, so they were exiting for their own reasons...

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#18

They have completely exited?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#19

I think they still have a little bit. They may just offload some more shares. So that was putting a -- kind of a sell pressure on the market itself. And this -- I mean, obviously, the -- there -- they've got their own reasons and this, obviously, creates a lot of problems as far as the investor sentiment is concerned. You will find similar things happened with IDBI, even Suzlon and other shares are going through that downturn. Now it's only a matter of time. See, the government has taken very stringent measures over the last couple of months. They've realized that there are no people who no longer are bidding because they've lost interest in the sector. So they have mandated the payments. They are really putting a lot of pressure, probably I would even expect some -- little bit of announcements tomorrow in the budget as far as the renewable sector is concerned. Because they've really seen that this is beginning to take a backseat and the discounts are the ones -- are the culprits apart from the bidders themselves, which I said they're bidding too low. Now all this -- I mean, if you see the intrinsic value of the share, our own share is not -- definitely not INR 2 if you take a 8, 9 multiple...

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#20

Sir, that's the only reason why I am holding on to this.

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#21

Yes, correct. I...

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#22

That's the only reason why I am holding on to this.

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#23

Yes, correct...

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#24

I don't have any further amount to invest and I cannot buy...

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#25

Correct. I mean, you see...

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#26

Because I've averaged out. I've averaged out at 7, 8, all these things I have done, but there is no way of exit. Just...

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#27

Yes. But we are only stating that -- see, if you also take the -- when they calculate the share price, they also take the group loan into account, which really speaking, I mean, it's kind of waived only, if you really -- so basically, the external loan of INR 1,100 crores is what really matters, which we have to repay. I mean, when you look at the, I mean, the shareholding -- the EBITDA multiplied by whatever, 7, 8, whatever factor you want to put minus the -- really speaking, the external loan is what really is -- needs to be taken into account. I...

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#28

No, that you have been trying last many quarters. I've been hearing this, but why nothing is being worked out?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#29

Yes. See, basically, the -- I mean, each time when you want to refinance also, I mean, the -- I mean, now the issue is that of Andhra payments. Now we're sure in the next couple of months, the Andhra payments also will become a thing of the past because the Power minister whom we keep talking to, he's saying that we will solve this because this is setting back the sentiments of the renewable energy investors across the country.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#30

Yes, yes. Okay, that thing is out of your hands because that's a political thing, that I can understand, but...

K. Kasturi

executive
#31

See, hopefully those are -- these external factors like Modi will be -- I see [indiscernible] I see DISCOM level, definitely as issues that will be definitely addressed. We are hoping that in next 3 to 6 months' time because all the efforts are on. Because today, there is no attraction for anybody to invest in renewable power because of this -- the dues on tariffs and also the DISCOM's nonpayment of dues. So I think that some sort of concrete measures are expected to happen in the next 3 months to 6 months' time frame. And some policy given and level [indiscernible] decision taken. Probably, the one is privatizing the distribution and all those things will happen. Today, because of the monopoly of the state DISCOMs. So that -- some sort of arm twisting is happening and lot of freebies are happening. All these are putting a lot of inefficiency on the system, so thereby causing a lot of cash deficit in the system. So hopefully, we will -- we will definitely -- see, there are lot of opportunities out there, no doubt. Because people are hoping that the consumptions will keep going up every year, every quarter. So definitely, there is a great scope, especially on the renewable side. Today, we are only -- hardly around 10% of the overall power generation in renewable power. We are targeting -- as a country, we are targeting around 20% to 25% in the next 3- to 4-years' time frame. So that's...

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#32

Power demand, has it picked up? Because last...

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#33

No, in fact...

K. Kasturi

executive
#34

It's sitting around 5% to 6%, that's it.

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#35

Yes. And basically, the power demand over the last few months has actually gone down. That's -- if you look at that because the industrial growth has not happened. And the fact is the government is quite concerned. I mean, they are -- earlier they used to brush it away saying that there is no problem. But if you go to the visitor center that is at Delhi, at the MNRE and this -- and the power -- this thing itself, ministry itself, you will find that they are really concerned by the things -- chain of events which have happened, especially in the renewable sector. And because it also a big topic to the Prime Minister, he -- in fact, he's made some statement saying that we will definitely address these issues and we can't allow these kind of things to happen and the state government should take -- operate the way they want as far as these not paying these people, not recognizing these -- the need for growth in the renewable sector and so on so forth.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#36

So this year some magic should work out?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#37

Hopefully, I'm -- we are still very optimistic on that and we wish, along with you, that all these magics work out really.

Operator

operator
#38

We take the next question from the line of [ Manish Bakshi, ] individual investor.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#39

I have a couple of questions. The first one is, do we have any update on when is the expected Supreme Court hearing on the money that is lying in the escrow account regarding the RSE -- RECs, which was sold at INR 1,500 when into the escrow?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#40

Yes. It was listed for January, but then again, it has got pushed down the road. It's -- probably February is when the next date of hearing. I don't have the exact date, but it was pushed to February as far as I know. And we are waiting, I mean -- because that judgment has to come. We are quite confident that will -- it will happen, and it has to come in our favor because anyway these RECs are trading above INR 1,500, which is what it was parked at. And secondly, this is equivalent to what Andhra is doing to -- they're actually going back on original old PPAs. Similarly, these are old RECs. You can't go back on something which is promised. And we -- our argument with the court has been saying that you're going back on a old REC and it is because of your inability to enforce the RPOs, the renewable power obligations, there it is stuck. It is not -- it's now that they are enforcing the renewable power obligations, now we are seeing the price discovery at much higher levels than the floor prices. But you can't hold back something because you did not reinforce it. So basically, people who have -- that means people who have bought RECs in the past, even the few who were buying at that time, they're being penalized. So that's our argument. I mean, unfortunately, it is getting kicked down the road month after month. So we're just hoping that -- the association is also trying to push it as fast as possible.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#41

And what is the amount that is stuck there?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#42

See, basically, from our point of view, as far as the wind business is concerned, about INR 23 crores. There is a little bit stuck in the biomass business also, but right now, we are concerned with the wind business as far as OGPL is concerned, which is about INR 23 crores, escrowed with the central regulator.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#43

All right. The next question is regarding the debt from promoters and the interest that they've been waiving off. Is there any indication of them converting this debt into equity? And if yes, then at what price will it happen? Because -- will it be at par or at price -- current price of INR 2 or something?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#44

Yes. We -- I mean, there have been discussions at various levels, but right now it's not the opportune moment, I mean, because there has been some offloading from IDBI and all that, which I was mentioning about. So at this point in time, it may not be prudent. They were -- in fact, they were considering it quite some time back, but then at this point in time, it is not the opportune moment. But they are looking at converting this at this point in -- at some point in time or the other, subject to all the -- I mean, rules and regulations of the SEBI.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#45

Okay. And we also have many other large shareholders, like I think the last equity was issued to SREI Infrastructure at INR 12 or something. And even Edelweiss Fund has a stake, so -- and they bought at INR 14. So now that it's at INR 2, do these large investors show interest in trying to know more about the prospects of the business so that they can probably average out their holdings and increase their stakes?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#46

See, they have been continuously monitoring and talking to us. See, the SREI part of it was basically, it was -- they had restructured a loan and the last couple of years back, we booked a INR 16-crore profit by the restructuring. I mean, we wrote back INR 16 crores, not a profit. I mean, we wrote back INR 16 crores. And INR 10 crore was converted into equity as part of the -- this thing because they were also hopeful that the renewable sector will definitely look up. Unfortunately, the turnover events in the last 1 year has set back the share prices. And they are also quite worried and they are monitoring the sector very closely. And we can only hope that they get back their -- at least their returns. And they're also, as far as SREI is concerned, that they are also under a little bit of a stress to recover the amounts from various of their investments. Similarly, Edelweiss also, we are in talks with them and they are also concerned about the same thing. But they also know that at some point in time things will improve and get back to normal. So they're also on a wait-and-watch kind of thing.

Operator

operator
#47

[Operator Instructions] Next question is from the line of Suraj Digawalekar from CDR.

Suraj Digawalekar;CDR India;Analyst

analyst
#48

Sir, just a quick one on the RECs. Do we expect the momentum in RECs to stay in FY '21 also?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#49

Yes. Basically, if you see, the obligation itself needs to be fulfilled and year-on-year the RPO obligations on each state is increasing. So now what happens as far as the Q3 and Q4 is when the RECs pick up to the maximum because the number of RECs available in the market because it's not a wind season, there is a shortage in the number of RECs, but the demand picks up because everybody is trying to fulfill their obligations by March. That is why we saw a trade at INR 2,100 and INR 2,200 and maybe it may even go up in February and March. But the availability of RECs even at our end or at the end of various other obligated entities, it's -- I mean, the REC certificate -- supply itself maybe on the lower side. But going forward, I see a similar trend continuing at least INR 1,500 and above because the available RECs, there has not been so much improvement in terms of the number of windmills or solar, which has -- though the bids have happened, the capacities have more or less just increased marginally. It has not increased so much. I would still see the pressure on RECs continuing and the obligations are only increasing year-on-year by 1 -- 50 to 100 basis points year-on-year.

Suraj Digawalekar;CDR India;Analyst

analyst
#50

Okay, okay. And one last one. FY '21, assuming we have a good, let's say, average wind season also because this year was a bit soft, assuming it's not good, if we have an average wind season, do we see the operational performance staying as it is? Or do we anticipate even more profitability because our 9 months also, if you look at it, the core operation has been good and as you have been also indicating that the government has also been taking efforts now towards DISCOMs clearing their outstandings and all and with REC staying good, FY '21 should ideally be good for us, assuming our average wind...

K. Kasturi

executive
#51

Yes. Correct. Yes. See, basically, there was a very preliminary indication that this is going to be a good monsoon year, but it's very preliminary, I'll not comment on that. It is only a newspaper report based on certain weather patterns they observe in the month of January and February. So we are hoping it's a good rain year and subsequently -- I mean, as a result of which, it could be a good wind year as well, which bodes well for us. Even if we get about 5 crores extra in terms of the number of units, it'll definitely be a profitable year for us. So 5, 6-crore units translates to an average price of, let's say, about INR 4.5 to INR 5, which we're having with the various DISCOMs and Tamil Nadu as well. We are looking at something like INR 25 crores to INR 30 crores straight, which shapes the bottom line itself. And with the discontinuing operations which go out and the interest rate reduction is another big thing which we are looking at. And it would be only 1 or 2 quarters online as far as the interest rates is concerned when you're becoming regular with the bank. And we've been promised by the government banks, that is the PFC, the Power Finance Corporation; IREDA; the Rural Electrification Corporation, REC, and so on and so forth that the moment you come on line with the bank [then they could] approach us again. So that definitely would be -- percentage points would definitely impact the bottom line as far as the interest rates by about INR 25 crores to INR 30 crores.

Operator

operator
#52

Next question is from the line of [ Manish Bakshi ], individual investor.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#53

Just continuing on the RECs. In the last couple of years, we've seen that in Q3, Q4, the price is about 20%, 30% higher than Q1, Q2. So have we thought about maybe not liquidating them in Q1, Q2 and doing that in Q3, Q4?

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#54

Yes, that temptation always is there, in fact, to hold on and then offload in the last quarter. But with the pressure from the banks, we are doing our very best to stay afloat in terms of our SMA 1 or an SMA 2. There is a 60-day, 90-day window with the bank. So with that pressure, it is very difficult to hold on when there is a cash flow situation, mainly created by Andhra. Had we been regular -- see, about a couple of years back, Andhra was on a 30-day payment term and over a period of time, they've gone beyond the 1-year period. Had we had that money available with us, probably, we would have experimented with these things saying that, okay, I'll not sell this month, I'll sell next month. It's always tempting to do so with -- on a speculative basis. But today, we're not in that position to do that.

Operator

operator
#55

Well, ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference back to the management for closing comments.

Venkatachalam Ayyar

executive
#56

Thank you very much, and I'm glad all of you had some very good questions. And I can -- very pertinent questions, and I can see the concerns given the share prices that they are currently trading at. And I can see the concerns overall as far as the wind industry is concerned. But I was only -- I started off my presentation by talking about the overall 9 months, we've reported a 3.7 crore positive as far as the bottom line is concerned. And going forward, the government has taken a very serious note, at least the central government has taken a very serious note of the happenings and the dwindling kind of interest that have been exhibited by various bidders in the last couple of bids. So they've taken a very strong note of it, and they've also taken a strong note of the fact that the DISCOMs are not paying on time and that's creating further stress on the various developers of wind and solar power producers. So I'm sure, in fact, the Power Minister has made some lot of statements saying that we will support the industry going forward. And as I said, we also look forward if there would be any announcements for the renewable energy sector tomorrow and the -- it may not come up in the budget speech, but there would be definitely -- they may not give incentives -- definitely, they have come out of the incentive period or the kind of giving some softs for the industry, but definitely -- they will definitely look at, at least ensuring payments on time and ensuring -- and I'm sure that they've realized that they cannot keep putting caps on the bids, which is what is a deterrent for the last couple of bids. And with these few, I'm still very positive that in a period of time to come, things will definitely look up for the sector. And with these words, I thank you all for a patient hearing. Thank you.

K. Kasturi

executive
#57

Thank you.

Operator

operator
#58

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Orient Green Power, we conclude today's conference. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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