OSB Group Plc (OSB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 19, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorHello, and welcome to the OSB Group 2021 Interim Results Call. My name is Charlie, and I will be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand you over to your host, Andy Golding, Group Chief Executive, to begin. Andy, please go ahead.
Andrew Golding
executiveThank you, Charlie, and good morning, everybody. Welcome to OSB Group's 2021 Interim Results Presentation. We operate a value set in our business, which is stronger together, take ownership, aim high, respect and stewardship. And clearly, the acronym that we use for that is STARS. So it was particularly pleasing this morning to see John Cronin refer to our results in his write-up as stellar, and I felt that accorded quite well with our value set. Okay, if I start by moving on the slide. I'm just going to cover 1 or 2 highlights in terms of performance for the first half of the year. And for our newer holders and analysts who don't know the OSB Group story quite so well, I will give a brief overview of who we are and what we do. And then I'll hand over to April who will take you through some more detail in terms of the numbers. You will then hear a little bit more from me around how our lending and savings franchises have performed and the outlook before we hand back to you for Q&A. I am delighted with our first half year results. To quote one of our corporate brokers, they are quite literally [ bound ] storming. We had a record half year for profits, up 62% on the prior period, with improving net interest margin and an increasing loan book, which I think is a great achievement considering the backdrop we're all operating in. We have continued to deliver, as we said we would, despite having to manage with the pandemic for both our own business and for our customers. We've achieved strong growth despite continuing to observe strict pandemic-driven lending criteria and controlling our application volumes until we saw real signs of recovery such as data on furlough, unemployment, demand for housing, including rentals, and how the economy was recovering. Credit performance remained strong in the first half with stable arrears, and the improving outlook led to a release of impairment provisions as we updated our forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios and rising house prices outperformed our modeled assumptions. Capital remains strong, and I know that our intentions around capital returns are at the forefront of your minds. April will cover more around our capital management framework later in the presentation. And finally, on this slide, we remain well positioned to grow and deliver attractive and sustainable returns across the cycle. We've demonstrated that we have a really resilient business, and the results will reflect this. Turning to the financial highlights. For the underlying results, gross new lending increased by 16% over the prior period, and our net loans and advances were up 6% to GBP 20.3 billion in the first half of the year, supported by that healthy GBP 2.5 billion of originations. Our net interest margin improved 268 basis points, and our cost-to-income ratio was excellent at 26%. Our return on equity was best-in-class at 24% annualized for the first half. And as I've said, underlying PBT increased by a huge 62% to GBP 253 million, delivering strong basic earnings per share for shareholders of 41.8p and an attractive interim dividend of 4.9p per share, in line with our stated policy. Now I'd like to give you a little bit of a reminder about the group and our business model. We start with our purpose: to help our customers, colleagues and communities prosper. We care about our stakeholders, and we use the resources we have and the relationships that we've built over the years to guide our business. Complementing rather than competing with the high street mass market, we are a specialist lending business, offering differentiated propositions to meet the specialist needs of our customers. We have a stable and efficient funding platform. Our lending is predominantly funded by retail savings through our Charter Savings Bank and Kent Reliance brands, and this is supported by our strong expertise in capital markets and wholesale funding. All of this is backed up by our unique operating model with our wholly owned subsidiary, OSB India, which offers best-in-class customer service and efficiency supporting our low cost-to-income ratio, but coupled with our deep credit expertise and underwriting capability, which has proven its track record consistently. As we grow, we will continue to seek ongoing efficiencies through the scalable nature of our business. Our lending proposition is unique. We run multiple brands, each with specialism in its chosen market. The breadth of our proposition plays well to a Savile Row analogy, everything from off-the-peg rapid decision loans to fully bespoke and complex cases. If you need a fast decision in principle, under 8 minutes in most cases, in either residential or buy-to-let, Precise Mortgages is your go-to brand. Kent Reliance increases the breadth of the offering with everything from residential shared ownership through to multiple tens of residential properties in a portfolio in either sole name or corporate structure. And InterBay, for example, can provide an umbrella facility housing residential, commercial and semicommercial assets in the same structure. The breadth of offering really does position the group as a one-stop shop for the mortgage broking and borrowing community. So those are the highlights, but I'll hand over to April now who will take you through some of the detail behind the numbers.
April Talintyre
executiveThank you, Andy, and good morning, everyone. I'm delighted that we delivered an exceptionally strong underlying ROE of 24% in the first half of 2021. Our profitability strengthened significantly with underlying profit before tax increasing by 62% to GBP 253 million, which is a record half year underlying PBT for the group. In fact, it's a record even if you exclude the impact of impairment provisions. We grew underlying net interest income by 12% and delivered a strengthened net interest margin of 268 basis points. Our efficiency metrics remain very strong with our underlying cost-to-income ratio improving further to 25% due primarily to higher income. This is consistent with our broadly stable management expense ratio, which is administrative expenses as a percentage of total assets of 69 basis points. The very small increase versus the prior period is due to the impact of lower levels of liquidity on the denominator. Looking ahead, we now expect the cost-to-income ratio for the full year to be marginally higher than in the first half due primarily to fair value gains in the first half, which I'll explain later, as well as higher discretionary spend out of lockdown and continued investment in IT. The underlying loan loss ratio improved significantly in the first half to a credit of 15 basis points on an annualized basis as we released impairment provisions as the economy and outlook improved. I'll provide more detail on this a bit later. Turning to the income statement, the group's underlying net interest income increased by 12% to GBP 299 million, with the increase primarily reflecting growth in the loan book and the improved net interest margin. But I would like to highlight a couple of significant but largely offsetting movements in noninterest income. Firstly, the gain on sale of financial instruments of just over GBP 2 million was from the disposal of A2 notes in one of our securitization programs. This compares to an underlying gain of GBP 33 million from 2 structured asset sales in the prior period. We also recognized fair value gains on financial instruments of GBP 10.5 million in the first half, with the majority coming from gains on our mortgage pipeline swaps prior to them being matched against completed mortgages, and that's due to the steepening of the LIBOR and SONIA yield curves. We recognized a loss of GBP 18.6 million in the prior period as the curves trended downwards. So underlying profit before tax, as I said, up 62%, also benefiting, of course, from that impairment credit of GBP 15.1 million versus a charge of GBP 54 million in the prior period. And then underlying earnings per share of 41.8p per share in the first half increased by 60%, commensurate with the increase in profit. If we could just turn to the balance sheet, our strong secure balance sheet, we delivered GBP 2.5 billion of gross new lending in the first half, which drove that 6% increase in the underlying net loan book to GBP 20.3 billion. This was achieved with attractive margins and on tighter criteria in pre-COVID. We remain predominantly retail-funded with diversification provided by Bank of England funding schemes and our own securitizations. Retail deposits grew by 3% to GBP 17.1 billion as at 30th of June. Excess liquidity prudently built up at the start of the pandemic was also utilized in the first half to help fund the net loan book growth. And we ended the first half with combined drawings under the TFS and the TFSME scheme of GBP 3.7 billion, up GBP 175 million since the year-end. The credit quality of the loan book remained very strong with 3 months plus arrears stable, 1.3% for OSB and 0.5% for our CCFS segment. Affordability also remained strong for Buy-to-Let lending with interest coverage ratios on new origination also broadly stable at 197% and 192% for OSB and CCFS, respectively. And our loan book is secured at sensible loan to values. The weighted average book LTV for the group fell to 64% in the first half from 65% at year-end, supported by house price appreciation. And the new lending loan-to-value fell to 69% from 71% in the first half of 2020 given our tighter criteria. The next slide is our NIM waterfall where you can see the very simple drivers behind the strength of the NIM. Underlying NIM increased to 268 basis points from 250 basis points at the half year stage last year, primarily as a result of a lower cost of retail funds as well as low average liquidity levels as we used up the excess liquidity built up at the start of the pandemic. Looking forward, underlying net interest margin in the second half of 2021 is expected to benefit from further reductions in the average cost of funds. We're, therefore, improving our full year guidance to circa 270 basis points. I'll turn to impairments next. So this slide provides a waterfall for the net release of impairment provisions in the first half. As you can see from the chart that I'm going to move left to right, adopting the less-severe, forward-looking economic scenarios in our IFRS 9 models as the outlook improved resulted in a provision release of GBP 14 million. We saw a further release of GBP 10.4 million as house price appreciation in the first half outperformed our model assumptions. These releases were partially offset by a small charge of GBP 1.2 million due to model enhancements and a further charge of GBP 3.2 million as we updated our post-model adjustments. These are to ensure that modeled estimates remain appropriate, considering the current impact of government support measures. Other provision increases of GBP 3.4 million, largely relating to new lending and any credit profile changes, are net of write-offs in the period. You can see that our coverage ratios have reduced in the first half of the year, commensurate with our improved outlook and the house price outperformance. However, they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic. We will obviously continue to proactively review our forward-looking economic scenarios as the outlook evolves. Turning to capital. Clearly, we have a very strong capital position. You can see that the group's CET1 and total capital ratio strengthened to 18.7% during the first 6 months of the year. Again, going from left to right in the waterfall, you can see the strong capital generation from profitability, which exceeded the increase in the requirement from loan book growth as we continue to control volumes through tightened criteria. The third bar shows the dilutive impact as we continue to amortize the fair value uplift on the acquired CCFS net assets. And the final bar shows a small reduction from ECL relief and other movements. The next slide, I thought, might be quite helpful. It shows the components of our capital requirement versus our resources. And again, starting with the bar on the left, you can see our minimum capital requirement is 9.4% as at the end of June, comprising of Pillar 1 and Pillar 2A. We've also added on the standard regulatory buffers for illustrative purposes, including a future reintroduction of a 2% countercyclical buffer as the economy improves, as prudently assumed in our internal capital projections. The middle bar, I thought, could be helpful. It shows a matching optimal capital stack by type of capital. Clearly, we have to use CET1 towards all of the regulatory buffers. The final bar on the right shows our capital resource is made up entirely of CET1 capital. The 18.7% CET1 and total capital ratios include some transitional benefits of around 1.2 percentage points as at the end of June from acquisition-related adjustments, subject to amortization, and the IFRS 9 transitional capital add back. In addition, the group maintains Board and management buffers to support planned growth in between profit verifications as these only happen twice a year. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that we are running with a significant access to current requirements. Before I come on to the topic of Basel 3.1, this slide also provides a reminder of our MREL requirements. There was no significant change for us in Bank of England's recent MREL consultation paper other than the potential to apply for a further 2 years in certain circumstances. My final slide is just a quick reminder of our existing capital management framework. As we said in the past, we're very much open to returning surplus capital to shareholders after considering the growth opportunity, of course, as we seek to maximize shareholder value creation. However, we need clarity on the final approach the U.K. intends to take on the implementation of Basel 3.1 and the impact that this could have on our capital requirements before we can reflect these within our framework and update the market on the evolution of our target capital ratios and distribution policy to supplement dividends. The range of outcomes on the Basel 3.1 is extremely wide, given the extent of national discretion, and could lead to a temporary increase in our capital requirement if implemented unfavorably for our loan book and this happens prior to us becoming an IRB bank. We will look to provide clarity on how we see capital returns to shareholders as soon as we can once we get the clarity from the PRA on how and when they plan to adopt Basel 3.1 and the Board is in a position to conclude its deliberations on the appropriate capital stack for the group. I'll now pass back to Andy who'll give an update on our lending and funding franchises.
Andrew Golding
executiveThanks, April. I'm particularly pleased that we have continued to grow the loan book, up 6% in the first half. Origination in our core subsegments, Buy-to-Let and Residential, have been encouraging both in terms of volume but also in the quality of those applications. We've achieved this strong growth despite continuing to observe the strict pandemic-driven lending criteria that we introduced last year. We chose to control our application volumes through quarter 2 until we saw real signs of recovery, such as data on furlough, employment and housing demand, et cetera, and how the economy was genuinely recovering. In the third quarter, as a result of a more positive outlook on economic data, we have relaunched Buy-to-Let and Residential products at higher loan to values, similar to those we had pre-pandemic, which will help drive new business and build a strong pipeline principally for early 2022 completions. At this stage, however, we continue to control lending volumes in our more cyclical subsegments. As you can see, the security we lend on is strong with high weighted average interest coverage ratios of more than 192% and lower loan book LTVs of 64%. We continue to see good retention, particularly through our OSB Choices scheme, with an increase to 76% of customers choosing a new product with us within 3 months of their previous deal coming to an end. And our strength with professional landlords is clearly demonstrated with more than 80% of OSB Buy-to-Let completions being to professionals and 72% of Charter Court's Buy-to-Let completions being a limited company. The group continues to be predominantly retail funded with GBP 17.1 billion of retail deposits as we opened around 26,000 new accounts in the first half while retaining a very high percentage of customers with maturing fixed rate bonds and ISAs. I'm extremely grateful for the unwavering dedication of my colleagues, both in the U.K. and India, who deliver the quality of service our customers have come to expect. Throughout the pandemic, this has been reflected in our high Net Promoter Scores in both our award-winning Kent Reliance and Charter Savings Bank brands. We continue to complement our retail savings franchises with our wholesale funding market capabilities. In early 2021, we completed the largest securitization to date under the Canterbury program with a value of GBP 1.7 billion. This transaction created GBP 1.4 billion of retained AAA senior bonds and significantly increased the contingent wholesale funding options available to us. It provided an opportunity to increase efficiency in our drawings from the Bank of England under the TFS and TFSME schemes by substituting the notes for rural loans with the bank for beneficial collateral haircuts. And just returning to some summary and key messages. Today, we have announced strong financial performance with lower cost of retail funds and the release of provisions. We've reintroduced products in our core subsegments in Q3 with risk appetite closer to pre-pandemic level, building the group's pipeline primarily for 2022. We remain active in the more cyclical business lines, but with continued controlled lending criteria. We've made strong progress on the integration. We're ahead of our target synergies, delivering nearly GBP 22 million by the end of the first half of the year. As I said, we completed that largest securitization of GBP 1.7 billion to date of Buy-to-Let assets, and we're taking the first steps to optimize the composition of the group's capital structure. The Board has declared a dividend of 4.9p per share for the first half, representing 1/3 of the total 2020 dividend, in line with the group's stated policy. We have a strong pipeline of new business and applications in our core Buy-to-Let and Residential subsegments. And finally, although we remain cognizant of the continued uncertainty in the economic outlook, based on our pipeline and current applications, we are confident to deliver underlying net loan book growth for 2021 of circa 10%, and we expect underlying net interest margin to be circa 270 basis points for 2021 and the underlying cost-to-income ratio to be only marginally higher than it was in the first half. I hope that's given you some insight. Thank you for listening, and we will now open up to questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Benjamin Toms of RBC.
Benjamin Toms
analystClearly, a very strong set of results today. My first question is just on the third-party fraud or funding lines. I note that a line has now been drawn under this issue. Is it possible just to give us some color on some of the recommendations that the externally commission report made in this area? And then secondly, am I right in saying in relation to IRB that when you get IRB approval at some point in the future -- and I appreciate that the submission has not yet been made, but it will be at some point before the end of the year. Is it right to say that some of the capital from the approval will likely be ring-fenced and not distributable for a period of time? Do you have any idea roughly how much of the capital gets ring-fenced and how long the ring-fencing lasts for?
Andrew Golding
executiveThanks, Ben. April, are you happy to take both of those?
April Talintyre
executiveYes, of course. Well, I think -- yes, I'm glad you've agreed that sort of we've drawn a line under the sand. The external review, I think, gave us the confidence that we were right that it was an isolated event. There were some enhancements. Clearly, this funding line is quite different from our normal property funding lines. And therefore, lessons learned weren't necessarily relevant to the property-related ones. But as always, when you take a deep look for the fund enhancement, they were good news if we were able to implement those and the ones that remain to be implemented at very minimal cost. So really, that's what I would say there. And we -- the administrator of the business in question is continuing to work to get the best recovery for all creditors in that business. And then on the IRB point, capital ring-fence, I'm not quite sure what you mean by that. But if you're referring to the fact that when you first get accredited, the regulators typically will put some conservative output floors, then that is my understanding. As to how long it takes before they get released, it's really up to them, I'm afraid. I'd love to give you a bit more clarity, but I think I've always said that I see IRB as being a natural progression and maturing of our risk management framework. With the model of generation 2 models already in place within our business, it clearly is helping us with our decision-making across the whole organization, whether it's underwriting or whether it's collections or everything in between. So we're already reaping those benefits. And secondly, I always saw it as a sort of potential defense against an unfortunate outcome on the Basel 3.1. So that's kind of how I think about IRB, to be honest. I'm hopeful in the future that there will be a benefit from it. But again, unfortunately, that -- and the timing, I have to stress, so the predication is really down to our regulator.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from James Invine of Societe Generale.
James Invine
analystI was just wondering if you could say a few words about how you're thinking about funding over the next 12 or 18 months, please? I mean you're clearly signaling faster loan growth into next year. And I was just wondering what your thoughts are at the moment about how you'll fund that. So whether you feel comfortable taking your LCR down further from here, how you view deposits versus wholesale funding? And then particularly on the deposit side, just how you see the trade-off between the growth and the pricing. So at the moment, your new business pricing does appear to be well below the stock rates. I was just wondering if you might think about taking up your new business pricing to try and grow the deposit base a little bit more quickly.
Andrew Golding
executiveYes. Thanks, James. I'll tackle that one. I mean the going-in assumption is that we want to be predominantly retail funded and then obviously make use of the wholesale opportunities presented to us for funding our liquidity stack, et cetera. And clearly, we'll make sure we do everything we can to maximize our drawings from TFS and TFSME scheme because clearly, it's beneficial in terms of costs. So it makes absolute sense to do that, and that securitization trade I mentioned earlier was all part of the sort of engineering of making sure that we could do that. And the deposit market has been interesting. We spent a little bit of time during the course of the last 12 months actually running away from Best Buy tables because deposit rates are so low that you could have ended up in a position where you were flooded with cash. And we had a strong stock of liquidity that we wanted to use to fund the growth in the first half rather than continuing to load on. The deposit market is always there and it's strong. Clearly, as the direction of travel on interest rates goes up and more competition comes into the deposit market, you would undoubtedly expect to see some pressure on prices. But mortgages have also never been so cheap as they are at the moment. And you would expect to see those price increases on the deposit side start to feed their way through to the asset yields that lenders are charging as well. So we think we will continue once TFS is not an option for us. We'll continue to make use of our securitization program. I think that's well tested and well trodden now. And we tend to sort of do a comparison of price and duration and use that alongside the retail market to fund the book as we need to grow it. So I think we feel quite sanguine about the funding environment. But clearly, the direction of travel on interest rates plays a bearing into that one.
James Invine
analystAnd your LCR at 171, I mean how much lower would you feel comfortable taking that?
Andrew Golding
executiveI mean, clearly, the regulatory minimum is kind of 100, but we have a low risk appetite for running skinny on liquidity. So we like to be a highly liquid bank for a number of reasons: one, because it gives you the cash you need when opportunities present themselves; but two, it's typically cash flow that damages organizations, not capital, and therefore, you want to make sure you're liquid as we did when we came into the pandemic and bolstered our resources. So there's probably a little bit more we could squeeze out of liquidity, but we do have quite a low risk appetite for running too skinny on liquid assets.
James Invine
analystOkay. Perfect. And can I just ask another? Actually, one on just in terms of your moving back to the pre-pandemic credit criteria, clearly, that's going to have a volume impact. What impact might it have on your new business margin? Will that be a noticeable impact coming through?
Andrew Golding
executiveI mean, clearly, the higher length of value products do carry a slightly higher either fee charge or interest yield on them. But again, if you look at our origination profile, typically, we tend to blend out somewhere around the sort of 70% mark in terms of new origination LTVs. We've started to put 80% and even up to 90% products back into the market in Residential and 80% in Buy-to-Let. It will have some impact, but the front book takes a long time to change the net interest margin because the back book is obviously quite big. So it's the way in which we manage the balance sheet on the back book, which is almost more critically important than the pricing that's coming through at the front end, as long as the direction of travel on the pricing is where we want it to be.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Grace Dargan of Barclays.
Grace Dargan
analystSo firstly, just touching again on the risk appetite point around the loans. Could you give us any color on your pipeline so far in Q3 with that looser criteria? Kind of what change you're seeing versus Q2? And maybe just for clarity, how much more you can ease that criteria? And I guess linked to that, what trend are you expecting to see in redemptions and how that will balance with origination growth? And then secondly, on ECL, what do you think is your scope for write-backs in H2 and into 2022 as well, especially as some of your macro assumptions might still look a little bit conservative? And what do you need to see to release that PMA as well?
Andrew Golding
executiveOkay. Grace, I'll talk about the pipeline and criteria risk appetite point, and then obviously I'll hand over to April to talk about the ECL point. I mean I didn't like the phrase looser criteria. We have put pre-pandemic LTVs back on the shelf, but that doesn't mean that we've sort of traded up the risk curve in terms of the credit profile of the borrowers that we're looking to do business with. That's not what we've done. It does tap you into a slightly broader market, and it enables you to write some volume. We only introduced them very recently. So to answer your question around what trends are we seeing, all I can tell you is that what we're seeing is that those new products have proved popular and the volumes that are coming in on applications are in line with where we would expect them to be. I don't -- we're not a criteria junky. I don't think you're going to see us doing 100% LTV mortgages or putting buy-to-let out at 95%. I think we've had a typical profile, which is sort of 80%, 85% in buy-to-let and up to 90 in resi. I think that's the space that we want to play in, subject to the creditworthiness and affordability from the borrower that underpins that. And we'll continue to monitor the pipeline as we go through the year. But it's building in the way we would have expected it to. April, on the ECL?
April Talintyre
executiveYes. And I think, Grace, you also asked about redemption trends, haven't you? And I think we clearly saw some odd patterns of redemptions, people leaving us much slower as we were in the sort of the height of the pandemic. But we've sort of trended back pretty much to what we have seen as experienced pre-pandemic. So we kind of assumed that, that will continue. If I just go to expected credit losses, scope for write-backs in the second half, but I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks that we obviously watch the outlook. We have a number of economic advisers. We watch any other economic data that's available for the market. And we regularly review that as well as regularly, at least on a quarterly basis, benchmarking our assumptions via the PRA with other Tier 2 and also the Tier 1 banks. So clearly, if that outlook improves, you should expect to see provision releases. And if it doesn't, it gets worse again, you should expect to see us taking more. But it's certainly something that we have to look at actively and a huge focus from the Audit Committee, the Risk Committee and our Board on ensuring that we're sort of not an outlier, that we're very measured, very thoughtful in this. I think you referenced the fact that we look a little bit conservative. Obviously, this was the view at the end of the first and second half that's incorporated. You have to look at what the world looked like at that stage. And I think we're comfortable we're in the pack based on the benchmarking, maybe a little bit, a tad conservative below the mean on HPI, offset by being a tad optimistic on unemployment versus the mean, but very much clustered towards the center of the benchmark data that we've seen.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Ed Firth of KBW.
Edward Firth
analystCould I ask you about your view on house prices and where you see them going from here? And I guess I'm struck, it's not just you, I guess it's the whole sector now. But a year ago, everybody was very cautious. And yet, I mean I think the ONS said yesterday, we've had the strongest house price growth in the following year, I think for 17 years, and yet now everybody is releasing criteria and piling in. And I see that Lloyds are now even buying houses themselves. I think they said they're buying 50,000 houses themselves. So I just wonder, are you concerned by this that a year after we've had the strongest growth for 17 years now, everybody is piling in? And secondly, would you consider buying houses yourself? And if not, why not?
Andrew Golding
executiveEd, yes, I mean it's amazing because if you would have asked me 12, 18 months ago what I thought was going to happen with house prices, I wouldn't have given you the answer that reflected the actual experience that we've seen. I mean we talk to lots of people, economic advisers, estate agency chains that run our panel valuation for us, et cetera. The housing market has been heated as a function of clearly a bit of stimulation from the stamp duty release. But also, I think just some sense of reevaluation that U.K. residents have done around either where they want to live or the type of property they want to live in, and that has fueled transactions that have gone on in the market. I don't think house prices can continue to go north at the rate that they have. I think that that's been a slightly artificial increase. But I don't -- my personal view is I don't think we're going to see a big reversal of that. I think we're just going to see a calming down of house price inflation to much more normal levels. And of course, one of the big drivers of HPI is affordability, and I don't think anyone's forecasting rapidly rising interest rates, which would become a bit of a damp squib in terms of affordability. And therefore, most economists are forecasting that the outlook is relatively benign in terms of house price inflation, but normalizing to a few percent, not kind of double-digit percentage. I mean your point around we've seen lots of growth and we've piled back in, clearly, we were one of the later lenders to determine that it was right to start to ease LTVs on our products. A number of our competitors did that before us. I think the LTV profiles that we've got still remain very sensible. And as I said earlier, we do tend to center around that 70%. And of course, on your back book, you've already had the benefit of that in terms of effectively LTV is reducing by then -- of properties on the back book that have increased in value. So I think we're feeling okay, but we -- as with any of these things, you monitor it very carefully on the way through.
Edward Firth
analystSure. And would you consider -- I guess 2 questions. One is -- so is interest rates what we should worry about, affordability, is that the key thing, firstly? And I guess secondly then, would you consider buying houses yourself?
Andrew Golding
executiveYes. I mean it's interesting, I did read the 50,000 number this morning around Lloyds. I think they've got about 10,000 properties or they're gunning for that in the very near future. I would quite like OSB to be a landlord in the private rented sector, a good quality landlord with sort of institutional backing. The problem is it's a bit capital intensive versus actually lending to other businesses to do it. So it's not something that's in our strategic plan. But I guess now you've asked the question, I know a number of my Board members are on this call, so it will probably get added to our [ structured weighting if it's over ], which is absolutely fine. So thanks for that. I quite like institutional buy-to-let investment because it helps to regulate the sector and improve the quality of stock, and that's what we're all about.
Edward Firth
analystOkay. Great. And in terms of affordability, you think interest rates, is that the thing that we should -- is that the thing that would worry you in terms of house prices and LTV? Is it the outlook for interest rates for a more rapid rise?
Andrew Golding
executiveThe driver of default on mortgages is either unemployment or borrowing cost. So when we -- I mean the last major house price crash in the U.K., if you kind of go back to the late '80s, early '90s, was just a function of the price of mortgages, from a base rate perspective, became out of control and people literally could not afford to make their payments on a monthly basis. I think the economy is more stable than that kind of interest rate environment these days. And the central banks are much better at governing things in other ways than just purely banging interest rates up to sort of 15%. But yes, rapidly rising borrowing cost catches people out. Clearly, the difference we've got nowadays is that we all stress test mortgages with a significantly bigger margin than we used to. And therefore, there is already inherent ability on the affordability on any mortgage case, be it buy-to-let or residential, to absorb some increases in interest rates in accordance with the current regulations. But rapidly rising interest rates are problematic as is rapidly rising unemployment because it dampens demand.
Operator
operatorWe have a question from Robert Sage of Peel Hunt.
Robert Sage
analystTwo questions. The first one, I was wondering whether you could comment on competition in mortgage lending and how that is developed through the course of the first half and how it stands today. And I note that a lot of your margin comments are around the sort of the reducing cost of funds. And I was just wondering in terms of new mortgage pricing, say, new mortgage origination versus back-book margins as it stands at the moment. The second question is a bit of a dull one, but I was just wondering whether you could give any comments about the outlook for gain on sale of financial instruments in the second half.
Andrew Golding
executiveYes. Okay. Thanks, Robert. I'll tackle the competition one and then, April, take the second point. I mean the market, if we start at the high street end of the market, I mean you've got ring-fenced cash in the big high street banks, loads of liquidity. They've got to do something with it. And when you see 5-year fixed rate pricing at the 1% mark, if I were a building society trying to compete in that prime high street space with those big firepower banks, I'd be very nervous about that because your ability to fund the book, cover the cost of risk of running an organization to do that at 1% or below, I think, is a very, very difficult task to achieve. That's why we're not in the high street compete end. We're in the specialist part. The specialist market, the competition comes and goes. We've got the stalwart normal competition that you'd expect some of the specialist lenders like TMW, which is the nationwide specialist; a little bit of BM Solutions, which is Lloyds' specialist; Paragon, the obvious name. But then there are a lot of nonbank lenders who kind of come in and out of the market and put in some wacky pricing. And you think, well, that's not sensible. But they don't tend to have it there for long because their factories aren't big enough to process the volume. They get flooded and then they have to turn the pricing off and sort of plow through and try and keep their service levels at somewhere where the broker community will tolerate it. And that's never been what we're about. We're about having a steady offering, always being there and always being able to deliver to our service level agreements. You asked on kind of margins on front book versus back book. In the appendices, there is some asset yield data across both CCFS and OSB broken down, I think, into Buy-to-Let and Residential. And what it will show you is a picture of very stable or, in some cases, slightly improved in the residential sector asset yields. So we're not seeing downward margin pressure effectively on pricing right now. That isn't to say it won't come to competition. Dynamics always change. But our offering is never one purely about price. It's always about service proposition and the depth and breadth of what we offer. April, on the financial instruments point?
April Talintyre
executiveYes. I'd also say, when you look at the appendices, if you kind of compare the 2 halves, obviously, bear in mind, you've got a base rate cut in there as well. So I think Andy was talking -- obviously talking net of that. Yes, I mean, listen, we never budget for gains on sales. They're opportunistic for us. We do securitizations for different parts of this. When we do a funding securitization, we retain the residual notes, and that gives us the opportunity to then deconsolidate and generate capital. I think you can see right now, clearly, we're not really looking to generate capital, if that gives you a bit of a clearance to our plans in respect to structured asset sales. You may see us selling a few AAA notes, et cetera, for liquidity funding purposes at the right price. But yes, that would be my answer for you.
Operator
operatorOur next question is from John Cronin of Goodbody.
John Cronin
analystI have 2, please. The first one is on capital return. Can I just understand, is this a blanket no for now until final clarity is received from the regulator or until you have maybe a greater sense as you go through the process or engage with the regulator in a Basel III context? And just, I suppose, I want to add some color in relation to the question. As you know, I've done a base case analysis of what the impact of Basel 3.1 might be, fully appreciate from your perspective subject to a great level of uncertainty, and therefore, that underpins the conservative decision to retain. But I guess, look -- thinking about it on the balance of probabilities, one can always envisage a worst-case outcome. But we look at your peers and if I take Barclays, they're willing to distribute down towards 14% with the minimum requirement of 11.2%. And there's very much that can go wrong, whether it be RWA migration or IB losses in the IB or whatever. And I think about your 18.7% and taking into account your optionality in terms of structured asset sales as well, I'm trying to understand why you wouldn't do something like what Paragon has done, like a GBP 40 million buyback, just to kind of dip your toe in the water and start the process. While absolutely appreciating your conservatism, given that this is a big unknown, so I'm just trying to dovetail it with that, but really trying to understand from a Board's debate perspective, where are you at? Is it blanket no for now? Or is this something that we could see movement on before Q3 of next year? And then my second question is just with IRB in mind in the longer term, how are you thinking about the evolution of the loan mix of the business? Is it very much, look, continue as is, buy-to-let presents very strong growth prospects still? Or are you thinking more deeply around how the shape of the group should evolve with IRB in mind? And if so, in what direction?
Andrew Golding
executiveThanks, John. I think -- yes, I was going to say I think that you're up.
April Talintyre
executiveYes. I mean I think you obviously -- when you're planning for your capital requirements, you can't plan optimistically based off sentiment or based off an optimistic or base-case outcome. You really do have to plan for the work. And I mean the good news is I'm confident that we can cover any temporary increase. What we can't do is size the quantum of surplus or the timing of when we can return until we get clarity on the timing and the implementation impact of Basel 3.1. As I've said in my remarks that this is a -- we've got strong capital now. I'm confident that we can cover any eventuality. But I can't start the conversation with our regulator about getting approval for a capital return. And so we both have clarity on how they get to implement. And obviously, the supervisory team don't have the clarity of the risk team's deliberations. And we're all, I guess, waiting for the long-awaited consultation paper, which they think they said is Q4, but I've heard rumors it may come out as early as next month. But clearly, I can't guarantee that. So we have to plan for the worst. You mentioned Paragon. I think the difference there is clearly they started their IRB journey far in advance. They've got much more established track record, have the data, engaged for several years, I think, before we did. And therefore, I think they are also obviously a very large buy-to-let lender. The main area of discretion that sort of is completely important to us is how the PRA risk-weights buy-to-let. That's the real elephant in the room. And I think they have the confidence, as to that supervisory team, of being a long way along on their IRB journey with Module 2 already submitted. So I think that's the difference. We are possibly the only large buy-to-let lender that is starting -- just starting the IRB journey and, therefore, perhaps in a class of one on this when it comes to the listed banks. I'm sure there are some building facilities to a large buy-to-let lenders who are probably in a very similar situation, but probably not with the strength of capital that we're coming into this period of uncertainty with. I mean, for me, it's all about the sequencing. In the worst case, there might be a temporary increase if we are not IRB accredited at that stage, but we're in a good position to meet that challenge. You also raised, I think, John, the concept of sort of optimizing the capital stack. You kind of need to know what your capital requirement is going to be and the sort of the timing of whether you'll see some temporary increases before you really decide how much of AT1 or how much of Tier 2 you want to raise. But there may be something we can do. Clearly, that's the conversation the Board is having. We know we want to optimize the stack, so that's something we're looking at.
John Cronin
analystOkay. So can I just clarify then that you really need the final clarity before you'd give something. I mean kind of as you engage with the regulator over the next several months, you're not -- you might recalibrate the capital stack, but you're not going to be implying to just take a risk on...
April Talintyre
executiveYes. I mean I hope that the sentiment amongst the advisory community, I'm sure you talk to them as well, John, I know you do, I hope the sentiment that the worst cases are going to happen will be clarified in the consultation paper. But we're really just going to have to see how definitive they are in that consultation phase. I think -- but once you get a consultation by the -- from the PRA, it's a pretty clear indication of their thought process. And I would imagine that any open questions in their minds would be on the margin. But clearly, let's see what that says. And then when that does come out, we've obviously run a number of different scenarios multiple times. But given how many areas of national discretion there are, you're going to have to give us some time to digest, run our models and for the Board to look at that and for us to engage with the PRA for their approval process. Clearly, we're sharing the scenarios with them, but they also have their approval process before they would allow us to announce any return of capital.
Andrew Golding
executiveJohn, I think you also mentioned a point around with IRB in mind, what do we see in terms of evolution of the loan book. I mean I think a relatively simple answer to that question is the obvious one is write more residential because as an IRB firm, residential is not particularly capital consumptive. And as a standardized bank, it's quite hard for us to compete with the high street. As an IRB bank, that starts to level the playing field up in terms of that scenario. So I'm not saying we'll suddenly become a direct competitor to the likes of HSBC in the high street, but I think it does or it will enable us to broaden our offering into the residential market and sort of come down the price continuum somewhat because it's less capital consumptive.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]
Andrew Golding
executiveCharlie, do we have any further questions at this stage?
Operator
operatorThere are no further questions at this time.
Andrew Golding
executiveOkay. Knowing that this isn't an audience that wants to hold back, I think we're almost coming up to the hour. If there are no other questions immediately coming through, then I suggest that I would like to thank everybody for their time this morning and taking the time to dial in and listen. And we look forward to picking up with you all again soon at the various round of presentations and things that go on. So thank you very much, everybody.
April Talintyre
executiveThank you.
Operator
operatorThis concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
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