P/F Bakkafrost (BAKKA) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

2025 webcast here from Oslo. My name is Hogni Jakobsen, CFO of Bakkafrost. First, I'll ask you to pay attention to our disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements, which is included in the published presentation. This morning, we will follow the usual agenda, starting with a summary of the quarter before we move into markets and sales, financials, operations and outlook. And there are a number of appendices also included in the presentation. So in the fourth quarter, Bakkafrost had revenues in excess of DKK 1.8 billion and an operational EBIT of DKK 295 million. Harvest in the Faroes increased 40% to 23,300 tonnes approximately. And in Scotland, we increased harvest with 19% to 4,600 tonnes. Our FOF division, fishmeal feed and oil in the Faroes increased the sale of fishmeal -- sorry, fish feed with 22% to around 47,000 tonnes. And fishmeal sales were up with 51% to around 2,400 tonnes. Sourcing of marine raw material slightly down from same quarter last year and came out at around 40,000 tonnes. Cash flow from operations were positive with DKK 447 million compared to DKK 68 million last year. And all segments were positive on EBIT, except for the Scottish Farming and Freshwater segment. The Board of Directors proposed to the AGM a dividend payment of DKK 3.45 per share. In this quarter, the all-inclusive margins for the group as a whole were DKK 10.59 per kilo. In the Faroes, the margin was DKK 16.81 per kilo. And in Scotland, we had a negative margin of DKK 21.11. If we move on to markets and sale, and beginning with the price development. In Q4, the average spot price for superior 4 to 5-kilo fish was NOK 82.23 per kilo. This was a year-to-year increase of 1.8% and a quarterly -- quarter-to-quarter increase of 29%. The price recovery were primarily happened in the second half of the quarter. However, price differentiation by size continued to compress as the market was more supplied with large fish. So the 6 to 7 kilo premium compared to 4 to 5 kilo was only 2% and small fish 2 to 3 kilo still traded at a discount of around 10% compared to 4 to 5 kilo fish. If we look at the global markets, according to the latest update from Kontali, global sold volumes increased 8% year-on-year, reflecting continued growth in overall salmon consumption. Consumption in the EU and U.K. was broadly unchanged and below the European supply increase of around 2%. So an indicator of a well-supplied market with limited demand growth in the quarter. The U.S. remains one of the strongest demand market with a consumption increase of 13% in this quarter. Growth was supported by higher supply from the Americas, while tariffs continue to influence consumer prices. A large share of the incremental supply in the quarter was absorbed by Asia and Latin America, and particularly, China continued to show strong demand for salmon in this quarter. So overall, demand growth remained intact globally, but growth was concentrated outside of Europe, underlining the importance of market diversification. Global harvest increased 9% in this quarter year-on-year, primarily driven by improved biology, but also larger smolt starting to play a role in the supply. There was limited contribution from Europe and a strong rebound in the Americas. Norwegian harvest was broadly stable in Q4 after a strong growth earlier this year. Harvest weights increased 6% in Norway to 4.22. Larger smolts, warmer seawater, improved biology have contributed to increased biomass turnover. And mortality continues to improve and downgrades are trending down in Norway, and it reached around 12% in 2025, which is the same level as in '22. The Faroe Islands delivered a clear step-up when it comes to harvest volume, a 62% increase compared to same quarter last year. Again, large smolt is a significant contributor to this development, giving a higher turnover on the biomass. Smolt weights were above 500 gram in the Faroes, harvest weights around 5.5 kilo and sea lice were well under control in the Faroes and mortality low. Chile rebounded strongly after week 24. The harvest was up 27% in the quarter. If we look only at December, it was 36% up, supported by higher feeding, good biology and improved harvest weights and low mortality as well. Canada, U.S. increased harvest mainly due to incident-driven harvest and normal variation and also following weaker years in the past. When it comes to growth measured in feeding, the one in this quarter with a 32% increase in feed volumes, followed by Iceland with a 20% increase and Chile comes in third with a 15% increase. Feed sales in Norway increased 6%. Then moving on to financials and starting with the group P&L. Revenue increased from DKK 1.470 billion this quarter to DKK 1.847 billion and operational EBIT increased from DKK 280 million to DKK 295 million. Fair value adjustments, DKK 570 million and revenue tax in this quarter amounted to DKK 52 million in negative. Profit after tax, DKK 591 million. If we look at operational EBIT for the full year, it came out with DKK 888 million. And adjusted earnings per share in this quarter were DKK 2.6 and -- sorry, DKK 6.9 for the full year. And as mentioned before, the Board of Directors proposes that we follow our dividend policy, which is that 30% to 50% of adjusted earnings per share is paid out as dividends. We have a track record of being at 50%, and that's the same that is being followed this time. So DKK 3.45 per share as dividends. On the balance sheet, since the year-end '24, we have increased our property, plant and equipment by DKK 403 million to DKK 7.1 billion. Fair value of the biological assets at the end of the quarter amounted to DKK 3.4 billion. Inventories have increased to DKK 790 million and receivables have also increased to DKK 824 million. Cash and cash equivalents were DKK 300 million, and the equity ratio was 58%. Another change in this quarter, which you might have noticed is that long-term leasing debt has increased from DKK 234 million to DKK 798 million. These are due to renewed leasing contracts on vessels in Scotland. Moving on to cash flow from operations. Cash flow were positive with DKK 448 million and negative from investments with DKK 282 million. Cash flow from financing was also negative with DKK 152 million, and we had a net change of cash of positive DKK 13 million. And during the quarter, we have decreased our net interest-bearing debt to just short of DKK 3.9 billion. The fourth quarter is a quarter in the Faroes where taxes -- corporate taxes are due. This has also affected the development on net interest-bearing debt in this quarter with DKK 188 million. And at the end of the quarter, we had undrawn credit facilities of around DKK 1.5 billion. Then before handing over to our CEO, Regin Jacobsen, I would like to highlight 2 recent ESG achievements that we are particularly proud of. Both of them are based on independent global assessments. First, we have achieved A List status with the CDP in their forest rating and being rated with an A with CDP, places us amongst the top 4% of companies globally assessed by CDP. So it reflects strong transparency and a leadership in this area. And secondly, we have also entered the Corporate Knights Global 100 Most sustainable Companies. Bakkafrost was ranked #2 in food and beverage manufacturing and #83 globally across all industries. So together, these recognitions confirm that our sustainability efforts are delivering results and that Bakkafrost is performing at high standards comparing also to global peers. And then it's over to Regin Jacobsen to go through the operations.

Thank you very much. Before going into the quarterly numbers, I would like briefly to reiterate the scale of our operations and what fundamentally differentiates Bakkafrost with the global salmon farming industry. Bakkafrost's fully integrated value chain provides control, flexibility, efficiency and resilience across the entire operation. Our activities span from fishmeal and fish oil production through feed, smolt, biogas farming, farming service vessels, harvesting, processing, packaging and sales and distribution. The core message is that we convert low-value raw materials into high-value, healthy protein at scale, delivering millions of nutritious meals to the global protein market. Our mission is to produce healthy, high-quality seafood products by leveraging our competitive advantage across the whole value chain. This is reflected in our key figures. In 2025, we had 1,635 full-time employees, revenues of approximately DKK 7 billion and an operating EBIT of around DKK 900 million. A significant share of our employees work in remote locations and small local communities, where stable employment contributes to maintaining local activity and long-term settlement across both Faroe Islands and Scotland. Our market capitalization is approximately NOK 30 billion, and we expect to harvest around 112,000 tonnes in 2026. We achieved a feed conversion ratio of 1.10 in the Faroe Islands and 100% of our production in the Faroes and 97% in Scotland is now ASC certified. We have set clear climate targets aiming to reduce Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions by 50% by 2030 and to be net zero by 2050. Then the segments. The FOF segment in this quarter had strong feed sales, which support our strong biological growth. In the FOF segment, we saw in the fourth quarter feed sales increased to 47,000 tonnes, an increase of 22% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the sourcing of raw materials decreased 5% to 40,000 tonnes. And the operational EBIT in the FOF segment grew 11% to DKK 73 million, although the operational margin decreased slightly. We also note that the downward trend in the raw materials cost has stopped, especially for the marine ingredients, which are trending slightly up as the graph shows in the bottom left. Moving to the Faroese freshwater operations, which have a strong and stable operation, continuously improving quality and survivability. The Freshwater segment has been quite strong over the year and also in the fourth quarter. Investments in increasing capacity, together with strong procedures have provided us with larger smolt, higher volumes and also better performance. This has led to stronger biological growth and better long-term prospects in the farming operation. We continue this development to increase our smolt production. In the fourth quarter, we transferred 5.3 million at 485 gram and for the full year, 18.7 million smolt with an average weight of 453 gram. In '26, we expect to increase this to 20 million smolt. The improvement in the operation are reflected in more robust smolt, which we can clearly see in the first 90-day post-transfer mortality and larger smolt. The operational EBIT in the freshwater segment for the fourth quarter was DKK 102 million, and the operational margin was 37%. Moving to Freshwater Scotland. In the fourth quarter, we transferred 2.2 million smolt whereof -- versus 1 million last year, but internal transfer from own hatchery was 1 million versus 0.7 million last year. The average weight of internal transfer smolt was 173 gram versus 167 last year. The margin was minus DKK 4 million versus DKK 28 million last year -- minus DKK 28 million last year. The negative result is primarily driven by a combination of low capacity utilization and some losses. I think in this quarter, the average utilization was around 3 kilo per cubic meter, and we aim for 12. So we are still quite low. In Scotland, the main focus is to achieve a steady ramp-up of the production. The red line right in the bottom shows this ramp-up is progressing, and this will continue through the whole 2026, and we expect to be at full biomass in the first quarter in '27. This means that gradually, we will see lower cost per kilo produced smolt during the next 15 months. At the Applecross hatchery, the operation are moving -- are more stable now. Biosecurity has been improved, and the focus now is to ramp up the operation. We plan to transfer 10 million smolt in '26 in Scotland with Applecross set to produce batches of 200 to 250 gram and some batches between 350 and 400 grams. So that will be a combination. The average weight for all smolt released in '26 is expected to be 179 gram in Scotland. Although the operational EBIT in the fourth quarter was negative, we see clear progress compared to the same period last year. The farming operation in the Faroe Islands was quite good in the quarter and also in the year. There were very good biological performance, but low prices on salmon. The ring-side costs have dropped 8% in the quarter. And the biggest driver actually in the quarter versus last year was actually the smolt cost, which had 70% of the reduced -- of the reduction. As the smolt utilization in the Faroes has been increased, the cost is coming down. But this is also driving a better survivability, which is also a driver for reduced cost. The survivability in this quarter was 98.4% versus 97.9% last year. This means that the mortality is 22% lower in this quarter compared with last year. So in the Faroe Islands, which are the lowest mortality in the world, Bakkafrost has the lowest mortality in 2024 -- 2025 and also in the fourth quarter. This drives all costs down. And as said, a combination of lower smolt cost and low mortality cost. Higher growth is also a driver. The temperature in this quarter was 0.7 degrees warmer than last year and gives better growth. And in this quarter, as Hogni mentioned, the growth was 34% higher than in the same period last year and the feed volumes increased 49%. And that corresponds to 12,000 tonnes of fish. Size of harvested fish in this quarter was also really good. 5.6 kilos versus 5.3 last year, so 300 gram up. So strong growth in the fourth quarter -- and this led to better performance, better operational EBIT driven by higher volumes and good cost control. The total harvest volume is 23,300 tonnes, and the EBIT from the Faroese Farming segment was DKK 171 million with a margin of 15%. Moving to Scotland. In Scotland, the biological performance has improved with the exception of the Portree farming site, which had an impact of the case in the third quarter, which also impacted into the fourth quarter. If you exclude Portree from the fourth quarter, the average harvest weight was 5.9 kilo in Scotland. But when we include the 900 tonnes of 2.3 kilo fish that was harvested from Portree, the average comes down to 4.3 kilo. Growth and performance has actually improved in Scotland versus the marine operation. The exceptional mortality was booked at DKK 55 million, which mainly came from Portree. And this, combined with low prices and low capacity utilization means that the Scottish Farming segment had a minus on the operational farming EBIT of DKK 110 million. Larger and healthier smolt will gradually reduce the marine cycle down to 14, 15 months versus 20 months at the moment. Therefore, 2026 to 2027 will mark a transition towards a more robust and healthier biomass buildup. Like in the freshwater, also in the marine, we are now starting the building up of biomass in Scotland. And with all freshwater facilities now operating disease-free, the same standards and procedures are being systematically implemented across marine operations. We have to start with the eggs and then eventually end up with the largest fish being disease-free. Therefore, we have very high focus on early pathogen detection, proactive risk mitigation, high biosecurity standards and visible leadership. In the appendix, I think it was on Page 31, there is a graph showing the importance of the scale where we compare Faroe Islands and Scotland. Highly robust and fish together with the scale will transform the Scottish operation in the future. So going to the Service segment. In the Service segment, we see that the conversion of vessels for transfer of smolt has a significant importance for our operations. This is the first stage of the operation, and it's really important for a good start in the life for the smolt. This segment includes fish transport, treatments, farming support, harvesting, packaging as well as biogas. And talking about biogas in '25, we actually produced 16.4 megawatt hours of electricity to support the Faroes electric grid. This was 3% of the total electricity production in the Faroe Islands. However, a part of it goes to electricity and a part of it goes to district heating, but it is not to be negligible. It is a good support. So Forka supplies around 50% to the electrical grid and the rest of district heating. The conversion of Martin and Bakkanes completed in the third quarter '24 and third quarter '25, are now in steady improvement and increasing smolt survivability. The operational EBIT in the Service segment in the fourth quarter was DKK 31 million with an operational margin of 13%. In the sales and marketing, a strong Bakkafrost brand and large salmon, together with good market differentiation helps us in challenging markets despite that it has been more challenging to get the premiums that we normally get. An increased supply of superior quality salmon from Norway and larger and more availability of large fish in general in '25 has put pressure on margins and premiums. The operational EBIT for the Sales & Other was DKK 77 million in the fourth quarter, 36% down from last year. The large and important markets are EU, U.S. and Asia, especially China. All these markets have underlying strong demand. However, there are different structural impacts ongoing, shifting volumes between markets. Asia seem to have exceptionally high growth momentum and seem to continue this exceptional growth rate that we have seen now for 2 years continuously opening new factories and setting up new logistic systems to source more salmon. So this will continue and the growth will continue as it seems. The tariffs on imported salmon to the U.S., together with unpredictability about what might come seem to have impacted trade flows negatively, especially to the U.S. However, the underlying market demand is definitely very strong. And for Bakkafrost, we see a strong demand also in the U.S. for our products. So we expect that our growth in the U.S. will continue. And for Bakkafrost, as we grow, the growth must be absorbed through geographic, product and channel diversification to protect pricing and margins. So coming to outlook. The higher supply in the first half of '26 seems to drop to no growth in the second half of the year according to Kontali's last updates. Estimates have been adjusted slightly upwards over the last 3 months as we see the difference between the dotted line and the red line on the graphs here. Higher temperatures and better biology have increased volumes. The global supply is very much set by Norway and Chile, which combined supply 79% of all the salmon into the market. The numbers of transferred smolt in Norway has been more or less flat the last 3 years, around 423 million fish. And in Chile, a small increase of 3% from DKK 175 million to DKK 180 million. Therefore, the increase in the global supply is mainly driven by improved productivity, which in general is positive for the industry. Reputation is good or improving when biology and biosecurity is improving. So this is a good development. Strong supply from the Faroe Islands and Scotland and Ireland have obviously contributed to the higher growth. Despite Faroe Islands are small in the universe, we have contributed to the global supply, increasing production 29% in '25, up to 116,000 tonnes from 90,000 gutted weight. Norway continued in January with strong supply growth of 20% this January compared with last year. And the Faroe Islands in January this year also increased 22% from 9,000 to 11,000. So global supply growth in coming months is expected to come down if we should maintain the 5%, 6% growth in the first half, where we already have 20% in January. So overall, we anticipate moving from an oversupply into a more tight market from the second quarter of '26 and also into '27. The graph shows the expected harvest volumes in Europe and Americas. For Bakkafrost, we continue our growth trajectory. In '26, we plan to harvest 112,000 tonnes with 92,000 from Faroe Island and 20,000 in Scotland. The harvest will be distributed fairly even across the quarters. Smolt transfers are planned at 30 million for the full year, contract share around 15% to 20%. The FOF segment expects around 165,000 tonnes. Fishmeal and oil more likely to drop a bit because of lower quotas on pelagic fish in North Atlantic. And we continue our development from our Capital Market Day, where we plan to invest DKK 5 billion over the next 5 years. And the objective is to increase our operation up to 162,000 tonnes by 2030 from the 112,000 this year. And key projects in this development is our new feed factory, which will be starting operation in June, now in June. And the new hatchery in -- both in Applecross, which is now finalized. And then in Skalavik in Faroes, which is starting with eggs now in the second quarter. And new processing capacity, both in Faroese and in Scotland. This growth is around 9.6% over the period from '26 to 2030. The strategy is clear: reduce the risk, increase productivity and drive organic growth. So Bakkafrost remains firmly on track with a robust operation, clear strategy and investment needed to secure sustainable growth and long-term value creation. Thank you very much. And now we are open for questions if there are any.

Alex Aukner, DNB Carnegie. Just a comment on the cost side. We've seen very good production growth during Q4. You have significantly higher standing biomass. So maybe 2 comments. One, what should we expect on the cost level going forward? And also in terms of the harvest volume guidance, you keep it unchanged, but given the -- was it 34% higher standing biomass in the Faroes? It seems you have quite a bit of headroom on the harvest volumes.

Yes. So on the cost, as we saw on the graph, it looks like feed costs are mainly flat or maybe a bit up, raw materials at least on the marine ingredients. But what draw, as I said, in the fourth quarter, the cost, 70% of the driver was from smolt. And I think that will continue. And especially in Scotland, when you compare the cost in Scotland with Faroe Islands, you see that we have not started -- the cost per kilo for smolt in Scotland is more than in Faroe Islands at the moment, despite that they are still very small. So when Applecross is running at full capacity, we should have that similar cost in Scotland as in Faroes. So I think it is fair to expect that cost in '26 should not go up, maybe slightly down despite that feed are slightly up. That's my take at the moment. On the harvest volumes, yes, we had 62,000 tonnes in the Faroe Islands 1st of January compared with 47,000 last year. So we have a very good biomass, healthy biomass. And that is -- that gives us a very good and strong starting point for the year. And we are harvesting very large fish at the moment, 6.5 kilos. So that's also strong. But it's very early in the year. And normally, we are not changing our targets quarter-by-quarter. So we are confident with the volumes.

Christian Nordby, Arctic Securities. Last year, you had DKK 8 million extraordinary mortality in Scotland in Q1. Is that something we should look for in Q1 this year as well? Or anything substantially different as you see it today?

A very good question, Christian. There are -- in Scotland, in the farming, as I said, we are now working to aim for a similar biosecurity and veterinary scheme as in the Faroes, where every fjord is kind of in its own. So they are not mixed with other on the veterinary. So -- and that was my focus on the biosecurity and the focus going forward. Until now, there has been a lot of diseases. And as we now move disease-free fish into the water, we need to start with the smallest fish first. We still have some batches of larger fish, which are a bit exposed or have a bit weaker biology. So that's why I think that there will be a few months with some extraordinary mortality. Whether or not it will be lower or was it DKK 8 million or -- yes, Danish krone, yes. I think it could be a similar number. I don't have a specific number. But it will not be 0.

Yes. And a follow-up, another question on Asia. You said -- and we've seen Asia has had very strong growth, but you had lower share of your exports to Asia in Q4. Why is that?

Yes. Our total volume has increased significantly. So we have also grown in Asia. We have grown in Asia. We have grown in the U.S. We have grown everywhere. I think it was not very much down. It was maybe slightly down. We are stronger there. But Asia has been very competitive. Volumes in Asia have close to doubled last year. And Asia seems to drive a huge demand at the moment. I think also year-to-date in '26, it has -- I don't know the specific numbers, but it has close to doubled also in '26 compared with '25 year-to-date. Last week was a record week and this week will also be a record week to Asia, but prices are more -- have been more muted compared to other markets. We have a few customers, and we want to maintain our market share also in Asia, also for -- to protect the diversification in the market. But it's a really, really interesting development in Asia with new factories and new channels opening up all the time. So this is very positive, especially with the disruptions that we see in global markets and especially in the U.S. It looks like to me like some of the Norwegian are pulling out. It's a strong word to say pulling out, but at least reducing their exposure in the U.S., maybe to take the risk down. And I don't think that is because of the demand. I think -- it looks to me like some are leaving or at least reducing.

Martin Kaland, ABG Sundal Collier. It looks like your margins in the FOF segment is slightly down compared to last quarter. Is this driven by lower external feed sales -- sorry, fishmeal, fish oil sales? And should this be the level to expect going forward? Or could there be other impacts for this quarter that also could be relevant in the next quarter and '26?

Yes. We have been in a period with higher external sales, which is now coming lower, especially when we talk about meal and oil. With lower intake volumes now, we will probably have a lower external sales of fishmeal and oil, and that will have a negative impact on the margin. So I think that's fair to expect that it will be lower forward.

Compared to the level now in Q4 or...

No. Compared with the average that we have had over the last 2 years. Something to add, Hogni?

Yes. But on the other hand, you will have increasing feed sales going forward.

Increasing feed sales, that's correct.

Henrik Knutsen, Pareto Securities. It seems you also updated your feed production guidance from the Q3 to the Q4 report, increasing from 155,000 to 165,000. What's the main driver for this?

We did 165,000 last year, right? Yes. So producing -- so harvesting more fish, larger biomass at the beginning of the year and probably also larger at the end of the year, it's difficult to see how you can use less feed. So less than last year is difficult to explain.

But then again, if you're entering the year with 34% higher biomass in the Faroes and you're guiding for 10% growth and you're also increasing the feed production, how does this add up?

Yes, it could end a bit higher, but 165,000 is what we could agree on.

Wilhelm Dahl Roe, Danske Bank. Just a question on -- of course, you had relatively lower tariffs than other regions. But going into sort of more contract negotiation times, do you see any impact except for end customers having a higher cost into the U.S. How those tariffs impact contract negotiations?

I don't see that impact so far. It is -- we have hardly seen any pushback on -- since the tariffs. It might also be related to the fact that salmon prices have generally been lower since the tariffs were implemented. I think it has a negative impact on the industry and between -- because of there are differences. So there is a speculation of moving probably between sources with different levels of tariffs. But it does not look to me as the market is impacted and the prices are impacted. As said, the prices were much higher before, and they are -- including the tariffs, they are lower than they were 2 years ago. So we see a strong demand. We see a lot of demand also from new channels, new customers. So it looks like there is an underlying strong demand in the market in the U.S. Okay. So thank you very much.