Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for joining Packaging Corporation of America's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Results Conference Call. Your host today will be Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of PCA. Upon conclusion of his narrative, there will be a Q&A session. I would now like to turn the floor over to Mr. Kowlzan. Please proceed when you are ready.

Thanks, Jamie, and good morning, everyone, and thank you all for participating in Packaging Corporation of Americas' second quarter 2026 earnings release conference call. Again, I'm Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO of Packaging Corporation of America, and with me on the call today is Tom Hassfurther, President; and Kent Pflederer, our Chief Financial Officer. I'll begin the call as usual with an overview of our second quarter results, and then I'll be turning the call over to Tom and Ken who'll provide further details. I'll then wrap things up, and then we'll be glad to take questions. Yesterday, we reported second quarter net income of $192 million or $2.15 per share. Excluding special items, the second quarter 2026 net income was $210 million or $2.35 per share compared to the second quarter of 2025 net income of $224 million or $2.48 per share. Second quarter net sales were $2.5 billion in 2026 and $2.2 billion in 2025. Total company EBITDA for the second quarter, excluding special items, was $486 million in 2026 and $451 million in 2025. Second quarter net income included special items expense of $0.20 per share, primarily for costs and write-offs related to facilities closures, the Wallula Mill restructuring charges and costs related to the acquisition and integration of the Greif containerboard business. Details of the special items for the second quarter of 2026 and 2025 were included in the schedules that accompanied the press release. Excluding the special items, our earnings decreased by $0.13 per share compared to the second quarter of 2025, resulting from a $0.27 decrease in legacy business earnings, partially offset by $0.14 of earnings from the acquired Greif business. The decrease in the legacy earnings was driven primarily by higher freight costs of $0.26, higher corporate and other expenses $0.12; lower price and mix in the Packaging business $0.11; higher labor and operating costs, $0.05; higher depreciation and amortization expenses, $0.03; higher fiber costs, $0.02; higher tax rates $0.02 and higher interest expense, excluding the Greif acquisition, indebtedness for $0.01. These items were partially offset by higher production and sales volume in the Packaging business for $0.26, lower maintenance outage expense, $0.04; higher production and sales volume in the Paper business for $0.03 and higher price and mix in the Paper business $0.02. Greifs' earnings were driven by strong volumes in the corrugated business and improved operating performance in the mills and included a $0.04 benefit to depreciation expense due to measurement period adjustments to the valuation of fixed assets on the opening balance sheet of the business. We exceeded our guidance of $2.33 on the strength of our corrugated volumes, which helped drive cost favorability in areas that we could control and offset higher than forecast costs for freight, recycled fiber and employee benefits. Gross earnings contribution also exceeded our expectations. Looking at our Packaging business. EBITDA, excluding special items in the second quarter of 2026 of $489 million with sales of $2.3 billion resulted in a margin of 21.1% versus last year's EBITDA of $453 million and sales of $2 billion or a 22.6% margin. We produced 1,415,000 tons of containerboard during the quarter. The legacy produced reduced 1,209,000 tons of containerboard, about even with the first quarter of 2026, and 14,000 tons more than the second quarter of 2025. The acquired mills produced 206,000 tons during the quarter, significantly exceeding their production in any quarter since the acquisition. System-wide, our inventories were down 25,000 tons from the end of the first quarter. While we ended the quarter at a low number, we've been able to build some inventory early in July with many plants down for the holiday weekend to help get us near our target levels of inventory. With not as much outage impact in the third quarter, we will be in a much stronger position to serve our customers in very tight conditions that we're operating under. Operational performance was a mixed bag during the quarter as we were hit with some production interruptions resulting from utility power outages across the mill system. This further emphasizes our need to execute and realize the benefits of the gas turbine projects, which will reduce, if not eliminate our reliance on the grid at three key facilities. It is also a testament to the organization that we're able to work through and minimize the effects of these issues to achieve the production we achieved given that we had completed outages at 5 of the packaging mills during the quarter. We manage costs very well in the areas we could control, particularly in the box plant system to help offset the headwinds we faced from elevated freight and increased recycled fiber costs. I'll now turn it over to Tom, who will provide further details on containerboard sales and the Corrugated business in general.

Thank you, Mark. Our corrugated operations turned in yet another very strong quarter in all areas. Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix were $0.11 per share below the second quarter of 2025 and up $0.04 per share compared to the first quarter of 2026 and in line with our forecast. Corrugated prices were slightly below first quarter levels until we began to realize the first increase in June. We are seeing the majority of the first increase rolling-in during July, and we'll see the beginning of the second increase in August with realization split between Q3 and Q4. Export containerboard prices were $0.01 above last year's second quarter and $0.02 above the first quarter of 2026. Export sales volume of containerboard was 30,000 tons lower than the first quarter of 2026 and 22,000 tons lower than the second quarter of 2025. We decided mid-quarter to lower export sales to build inventory so we can supply our corrugated plants to efficiently serve our customers. As Mark alluded to earlier, we were able to meaningfully increase our inventories during the first week of July which puts us in a good supply position for the back half of the year with our mills running full out. Demand was very strong throughout the quarter across our entire customer base. Shipments were up over 24% in total and per day versus last year, with the legacy business up 4.1%, achieving an all-time record for total quarterly shipments. The acquired Corrugated business had an excellent quarter, driven by strong volumes in both the sheet feeder and bulk businesses which drove its earnings contribution above our expectations. We saw meaningful improvement of the integration level of containerboard produced by the acquired mills into the combined box plant system as well as from legacy PCA mills into the acquired corrugated operations. Given the volume, the box plants across the whole system had to step up and perform to satisfy our customers while costs were increasing and they did just that. Our corrugated operations were favorable to forecast in almost all cost areas, which helped mitigate the freight hit we took during the quarter. We also optimized our production and ran the right orders in the right plants to maximize efficiency and margins. Our people demonstrated their unwavering commitment to our customers to deliver this outstanding performance. Finally, I'm pleased to report that we successfully started up the new Ohio plant earlier this month ahead of schedule. The state-of-the-art 550,000 square foot facility will further enhance our capabilities to serve and grow with our customer base in a very strategic area for us while improving our operational efficiency over the long term. I'll now turn it back to Mark.

Thank you, Tom. Looking at the Paper segment, EBITDA, excluding special items in the second quarter was $39 million with sales of $157 million, or a 24.9% margin compared to the second quarter of 2025's EBITDA of $30 million and sales of $146 million or a 20.8% margin. Note that the International Falls outage was in the second quarter of last year and will be in the third quarter this year. Sales volume was approximately 3% below the first quarter of 2026, and and approximately 6% above the second quarter of 2025. Prices and mix were up 2% from both the first quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2025. So another solid quarter from the Paper business with strong margins. We're continuing to implement our previously announced price increases and expect to benefit in Q3. I'll now turn it over to Kent.

Thanks, Mark. Cash provided by operations was $376 million and after $206 million of CapEx, free cash flow was $170 million. In addition to CapEx, the primary payments of cash during the quarter included dividend payments of $111 million, cash tax payments of $78 million and net interest payments of $54 million. We did not repurchase shares during the quarter. Excluding special items, our effective tax rate during the second quarter was 25.7%. We expect the third quarter rate to be approximately 26%. We continue to forecast $840 million to $870 million of CapEx and excluding special items, around $710 million of DD&A for the year. Our special items expense for the year through the end of 2Q included $56 million of depreciation expense associated primarily with the Wallula Mill restructuring. I'd now like to give you an update on the annual outage schedule and earnings impact for the year. Our outage expense was $0.34 during the second quarter. Our back half estimates are now $0.30 for the third quarter and $0.63 for the fourth quarter, totaling $1.41 for the year. As we indicated, International Falls or only white paper mill will have the outage in the third quarter. In the Packaging segment, only the Riverville mill is scheduled for a third quarter maintenance outage. I'll now turn it back over to Mark.

Thanks, Kent. Looking ahead, as we move from the second quarter into the third quarter, we expect continued strong demand in the Packaging segment and corrugated products volume to increase with 1 more shipping day. Prices for containerboard and corrugated products will be higher as we complete implementation of our first announced increase and begin to realize our second announced price increase. We will have 1 more day of mill operation and as well as lower impact to production from maintenance outages. We also expect better operating performance across our containerboard mill system with continued improved capabilities from our Jackson mill as well as the acquired Greif mills. Mill maintenance outage expenses will be lower in total in the Packaging segment and higher in the Paper segment. We expect lower volume and higher prices in the Paper segment as a result of the maintenance outage and continued implementation of our previously announced paper price increases. Cost for freight across the business will remain at or around the elevated levels we experienced in May and June. Recycled fiber prices are continuing to increase and higher mill production will drive usage -- higher usage. We expect higher prices for chemicals and purchased electricity with wood fiber and natural gas remaining relatively flat. We expect some improvement in employee benefits costs due to second quarter unfavorability that is not expected to repeat in the third quarter. Considering these items, we expect third quarter earnings of $2.91 per share, excluding special items. With that, I'd be happy to entertain any questions, but I must remind you that some of the statements we've made on the call constituted forward-looking statements. The statements were based on current estimates, expectations and projections of the company and do involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including the direction of the economy and those identified as risk factors in our annual report on Form 10-K on file with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. And with that, Jamie, I'd like to go ahead and open the call for Q&A. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from George Staphos from Bank of America Securities.

So I guess maybe to start, as always, can you give us a rundown on what you're seeing in terms of bookings and billings to start the third quarter. Anything sort of unique or notable in the trends that you're seeing in that, a couple of follow-ons.

George, this is Tom. Yes, billings are up 1.5% so far, and we're expecting for the quarter, this is in the legacy business and up about 2%. So that's pretty much in track with what we thought. And of course, it's against a pretty tough comp. And as you may know, Prime days were moved up a quarter. So it's going to change change the numbers a little bit in the third quarter. But all in all, we're happy with that growth, and we're being pretty disciplined and selective in terms of our growth as well.

Okay. Within the 2Q volume to 3Q volume comparison and you mentioned one consideration, is there anything else that's decelerated? Or is that the only thing that from what you can see that's worth noting. And relatedly, this is not [indiscernible], it's our model, not yours, but mix was a little bit less than we're expecting in terms of revenue per ton. Was that related to any sort of customer factors or anything else in the mix? And then my last question, bigger picture. Mark, for years, the company has talked rightly about its fiber flexibility, frankly, the weighting more towards [ burn ] versus recycled, which gave you a little bit more predictability on your costs. How do you see that evolving now that you become maybe almost as much recycled as virgin relative to the peer set.

Let me start that question first, George. We're probably currently around 30% recycled to 70% on any given day, it flexes up and down to 35% at times. As we're pushing the system now, we're probably up closer to the 35% level. But nevertheless, it's we've gone through an unusual time since the beginning of the year. If you think about it, OCC, DLK recycled fiber is up about 70%. And so that impact is felt directly. So we're maximizing the virgin craft system and taking advantage of the OCC DLK systems to fiber up the mills. That's pretty much where we are and where we expect to be. We're not planning on any big capital expenditures right now for either fiber. Tom?

George, relative to mix, 2Q going into 3Q, as I mentioned, the prime days in the e-com was very strong in the quarter. So in the second quarter, and that moved -- they moved that up somewhat. So that really impacted the general mix, which translated into price as well. And then, of course, we had the $20 reduction that was announced in RISI, which impacted price as well. But the good news is all segments of the business were very strong, and we're up and we plan to see that going forward as well. Yes, and the 3Q price obviously is going to change dramatically as we roll through the price increase that we -- as I mentioned in my commentary.

Our next question comes from Mike Roxland from Truist.

You mentioned Greif beat by $0.10. I think you were expecting maybe a $0.04 contribution positively. You wind up with $0.14. This is a -- so when you think about the beat it seems relative to The Street for the quarter, it seems like it was done -- it came -- most of it came from, if not all, they came from Greif rather than your legacy business. So just any color you can provide on the miss in the legacy business relative to expectations? Is that largely due to cost mainly for -- just any color you could have in terms of the put and takes in the quarter relative to between legacy and your -- the Greif assets?

So Mike, I'll start with this. It's Kent, and then Tom will add some color. So Greif was a $0.14 earnings contribution, that exceeded expectations, the headline number by, call it, $0.09 or $0.10. $0.04 of that was the depreciation benefit that we called out in the earnings release, okay? So if you're looking sort of apples-to-apples $0.05 from expectations, that was driven by largely higher volumes than we expected and very good operational performance. But also, we're running Greif now as a much more integrated system. It's much less separate from PCA legacy than when we made the acquisition, obviously by design. So there's some puts and takes. We're moving business between trying to get things -- trying to get efficiencies maximized, and Tom can comment on this a little bit further.

There's really not a ton to add. It's just that we're running the business to the greatest efficiency we can, and we're trying to utilize all of our assets in the best possible way. So we now view this business as being totally integrated, and we're operating as one unit.

Got it. In that regard, Tom, I think you had a transition service agreement with Greif may have expired. Can you talk about -- is there any way to quantify what the -- what you get back from the expiration of that agreement?

I'll let Kent handle that.

So the transition services agreement is running through the end of the year as we bring the last few corrugated plants and one facet of the mills on the PCA system. So we got 3 more plants coming up in 3Q and the last couple coming up in 4Q. The TSA is -- number one, we're reporting the costs and special items as part of acquisition integration charges. But really, the efficiencies we're seeing is just having better visibility to the business, being able to take advantage really of just optimizing the supply position between PCA mills on one hand and Greif facilities on the other hand. So that's really where it's coming from, Mike.

I'll add, Mike, that we look very much forward to having them all on our system. I can tell you that.

Got it. And that sounds like it will be done by year-end. That's being -- you'll be done completely with the TSA.

That's correct.

Perfect. One last one, and I'll turn it over. Just in terms of tariffs, obviously, that's the 50% has potentially being proposed to be applied to Canadian imports of containerboard maybe boxes. Any thoughts around those tariffs and what it means for the domestic industry?

Right now, our initial read is little to no impact on PCA. It should have really nothing on the Packaging business, and as you parse through it, it's not 100% clear at this point in terms of what really applies to. So we'll take a little more of a wait-and-see approach. But right now, we don't view it as a significant driver either way.

Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub from Seaport Research Partners.

So you mentioned that you started to see the March, April increase in June. Can you give us a sense as to how much of it then of the 50% would have shown up in your box prices in the second quarter. Presumably, the balance of that, is it fair to say it would be in the third quarter? And then can you share, I think you used the term -- you expect to kind of split the June increase between 3Q and 4Q. Is that evenly or was that just sort of -- some of it's going to show up in 3Q and some is going to show up in 4Q and to the extent that you're comfortable quantifying rough percentages, that would be helpful.

Yes. Mark, it's Ken. I'll start, and then Tom will finish here, okay? On the first increase, the vast majority of that's coming in Q3, okay. Calibrate it maybe 70%, 75% of it's Q3 and July there. The second increase, the majority will come in, in 4Q, but not quite as pronounced as the 2Q, 3Q split on the [indiscernible] increase. Tom?

Yes, that's -- I mean, that's exactly the way we see it. And I think a lot of times, people forget that we were impacted by the $20 down that was announced that trailed into 2Q. And also the mix had some impact in 2Q from the price standpoint. All of that then comes back in 3Q and 4Q with these increases as they roll through, as Kent mentioned.

Great. And then just as a follow-up, in some environments in the past, you've been able to get more than full pass-through. And clearly, we got a very high cost environment right now. Is -- are we in that type of an environment? What would sort of be recognizing they're going to -- there's always going to be competitive pressures as well at work. How should we be thinking about the ability to get full-out possibly even more than full pass-through?

Well, Mark, I don't -- I'm not going to quantify that for you, but I can tell you that you did observe that, that is our mission, and that is what we always try to do. And we -- and you also mentioned and I think very importantly that we are in a very high inflationary environment right now. And we're having a -- it's it's -- we're having a lot of discussions around that. I'll leave it at that.

Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo Securities.

You talked about being able to build a little bit of inventory early in the quarter, maybe in and around the July 4 holiday. And then, Tom, I think you also mentioned 1.5% billings. I know we can't extrapolate that out, but I think you referenced maybe 1.5%, 2% was sort of what you were thinking for the quarter on a year-over-year basis. If I got my comparisons correctly or correct here, I think, down 1.1% for corrugated shipments in Q3 '25. So just assuming I've got that level set, how would you describe kind of the feel in the market right now from a supply demand standpoint? And I'm sort of asking because you guys obviously delayed some sales of exports into the third quarter to kind of shore up your own inventories and then there's been some supply disruptions in the market. So just if you got customers coming to you asking for help, or anything like that?

I'm going to give you one word, Gabe, that I would use to describe the environment, and that's tight.

Got it. And then we did hear some comments about maintenance outages maybe some folks coming up a little bit slower than what was expected. Just curious if you guys had experienced any of that or maybe it was Mark, related to the grid volatility that you mentioned in your prepared remarks?

As far as we went through our annual outages at 5 of the mills during the second quarter, we executed incredibly well. And in most cases, ahead of schedule and started up the mills very successfully. But we had at least 5 distinct utility power outage situations at a number of the mills. I mean, to give you an example of one mill, they shut us down for the better part of a full day just with their own hardware issues, and then had continuing problems for a few more days trying to get their own grid structure stabilized. Another location, basically a year in forest fire season. We had the utility shut down the entire regional system without notifying anybody. So it took down the mill instantaneously out in Wallula and impacted us for a period of time. So we're having these types of situations where voltage droops and surges through the systems. It just -- I think it speaks in many cases to what's happening with the nationwide integrity of the system. And so -- but we overcame those issues. And again, as I said on my comments, it speaks to the ability of our individuals to rally and get through these things and stabilize the mills, but it also speaks to the importance of the 3 gas turbine projects that we'll be bringing online over the next 2 years and how critical they're going to be to these 3 particular mills. So...

All right. I know I'm going to be maybe a little aggressive here or at least giving mouse a cookie or no glass for a cookie. I think you said 70% realization, Kent, on the second price increase and sort of split Q3, Q4. $35 a ton, maybe 1.4 million tons, directionally, $45 million, $50 million benefit that we're thinking about on a sequential basis. And then I know maintenance costs are up, I think, $0.33, directionally. So maybe $40 million offset. And then I think there's 1 less shipping day. Is there anything else that we should be thinking about, I think, a higher energy consumption for colder weather conditions, things like that in Q4 anything else that we should be mindful of thinking about for Q4?

For Q4 maintenance primarily higher, normal seasonal mix, a little bit higher depreciation run rate as I kind of called out, as I alluded to in my prepared remarks. But seasonally strong volumes. So those are your primary factors. And at least right now, trying to put a crystal ball around some of the freight and energy price costs it's pretty premature to do that.