Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Paladin Energy Ltd Investor Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Paul Hemburrow, Chief Operating Officer. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us. With me this morning is Alex Rybak, Chief Commercial Officer; Anna Sudlow, Chief Financial Officer; Paula Raffo, Manager of Investor Relations; and also on the line, we have Ian Purdy, our CEO, who is joining us from Namibia. Ian is in Namibia on a scheduled visit. The Internet is quite unstable at the moment in Namibia, and Ian may drop out, but hopefully be with us for the duration of the call and questions. So further to our previous announcement relating to the unseasonal rain impact on Langer Heinrich, I'd like to give you an update on the current status of Langer Heinrich and our production guidance for the remainder of FY 2025. Unseasonal heavy rainfall has occurred across Namibia, causing flooding and damage in many areas across Namibia. Langer Heinrich Mine has experienced a 1 in 50-year rainfall event during March that's resulted in short-term disruptions to operations and has also disrupted the company's plans to accelerate the commencement of mining. There were 2 significant periods of rainfall, the first occurring on March 7 that resulted in saturation of the ground and the second rainfall event occurred between the 18th and the 21st of March. And as a consequence of the saturated ground, significant surface flows caused a level of disruption to the operation at that time. The short-term disruptions that we've seen included limitations on transportation of people and materials to site, restricted feed to the crushers due to the saturation of stockpiled ore and excess surface water restricting safe access to the processing plant. While, at this time, there appears to be no significant damage to the processing plant and our people are safe, there was damage to the access roads and minor civil infrastructure on site and to the haul roads that we use to access the mine. Access to Langer Heinrich Mine has now been reestablished and the processing operations have resumed. Paladin expects the processing plant to return to normal operations as the process chemistry has stabilized and the stockpile ore saturation levels decrease. The company was advancing the early commencement of mining to access high-grade ore and accelerate the mining ramp-up. Mobilization of key personnel and mining equipment has been delayed by the rain across Namibia, and locally at LHM, has resulted in water ingress into the open pits. Whilst on-site pumping infrastructure is available to dewater those pits, equipment access to the pits to commence mining is likely to be delayed. On-site flood protection such as bunding and drainage infrastructure diverted much of the water to the existing TSF5 and to drainage channels and riverbeds. However, there were significant flows into the Eastern pits that were available for the early commencement of mining. The unexpected disruption to early commencement of mining, together with the short-term impact of the suspension of operations and the difficulties associated with processing saturated stockpiled ore, has resulted in Paladin withdrawing production guidance for FY 2025. Paladin still expects improving production levels at the second half of calendar year 2025 with the blending of ore from open pit mines. But prior to the rain event, LHM was on track for a positive March with target levels of overall recovery, improved water efficiency and increased throughput rates. Additionally, all necessary approvals and permits are in place for the commencement of mining. However, the disruption to early commencement of mining means there is no certainty that LHM will be able to achieve nameplate run rate guidance of 6 million pounds per annum by the end of calendar year 2025. The acceleration of mining was a key initiative to offset the underperformance of the stockpile ore and achieving that nameplate run rate. The LHM team continued to drive operational improvements and progress advancement of mining. Improved water supply outcomes and target levels of plant recoveries have provided a platform for improving plant production. Despite the delays and disruption, the preferred mining contractor, Trollope Mining, has commenced mining equipment mobilization and the recruitment and training of operators. All mining permits are in place and the blasting contract has completed their mobilization. The company will provide further details of production and mining in the Q3 quarterly report in April, and I look forward to providing guidance for FY 2026 with the release of the FY 2025 financial results in August 2025. I'm now happy to answer any questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question today comes from Mitch Ryan from Jefferies.

I'm not hearing any questions from Mitch.

Yes, there appears to be an issue with Mitch. I'll move on. Your next question comes from Paul McTaggart from Citi.

So I just wanted to ask, are there any restrictions on your pumping water out of pits given kind of contamination levels? So I mean, is that going to be an issue for you? Do you see -- is there a restriction on the rate you can pump out or where you have to pump out? Maybe if you could just kind of give us a sense of that, please.

Yes. Thanks, Paul. Good question. What we have done on site is we installed quite a bit of bunding and flood protection works. And what we've managed to do is divert the water away from any sensitive areas and diverted it either into the TSF5, which is absolutely fantastic. It enables us to capture it back into the processing plant. At the eastern end of the pit, we had some water diverted into the G pits. They are the pits that we have preprepared for advanced mining activities. They're now full of water. What we will do with the water in those pits is pump it out and pump it back into the TSF. So we won't be releasing that water into any river channels or drainage ways, but try and get it straight back into the TSF. So there's no risk of contamination from that water.

Your next question comes from Dim from UBS.

Maybe just a couple of questions from me. So can you maybe just remind us of your sales commitments? And will you be able to meet them given lower production? Will you have to buy tonnes? Maybe just walk us through that, please.

Yes, I'll hand over to Alex Rybak for that one. Thanks, Alex.

Dim, thanks for the question. So at this stage, we expect to meet our contract delivery obligations. We have notified our customers of the weather event. As Paul said, it's a 1 in 50-year rain event. But what I can say is our March shipment was already dispatched. We have already packed our April shipment. So we expect to meet our deliveries in the short term, but I think it's too early to take a definitive view on our future deliveries. As we've previously said, we do have flexibility within our contract book, and we also have relevant contract clauses to deal with such events. We are currently working very closely with our customers to avoid or minimize any impact on any disruptions. In terms of the spot purchases, we don't expect to be buying in the spot at this point in time. But of course, we can't rule out anything categorically. We're still assessing the impact on future production and deliveries. But as I said, we have volume flex within our portfolio. We have contract protection mechanisms for such events. So at this stage, we don't expect to be buying on the spot.

So FY '25, remainder of FY '25, it feels okay, but the issue -- it's maybe FY '26. Like, do you have the rough split of pounds, like how many pounds you're on the hook for, for FY '26 maybe? Have you given that out?

Yes. So we're well contracted for both calendar year '25 and calendar year '26. We sort of work on a calendar year basis. But we do have flex within our contract portfolio, as we've previously talked about. And we do have various contract protection mechanisms for such weather events as well.

Yes. Okay. Cool. And maybe just one on the time lines. So prior to you guys moving or advancing or trying to advance the mine restart, you always had that end of calendar year '25 target for 6 million pounds. Can you maybe walk me through why that's shifted for 6 months when -- I mean like, at this point, you're not advancing the mine restart. Is that likely to be June, July again? And then I guess, why the significant pushback on your '26 targets, I guess, if you could maybe help me with that?

I think I understand your question. So we have more stockpiled ore on the stockpile than we anticipate at this point in time. In parallel with that, we had -- our mining fleet was due to be on site right now. We've got some equipment on site now from Trollope Mining. We have -- we're waiting on an excavator. So that was stuck on the wrong side of the Rehoboth bridge on the road between Johannesburg and Namibia. So we're waiting on the workaround to get that piece of equipment to site. And the second fleet, which is also due now is still sitting in South Africa. So that's causing a delay to access to that equipment. Now the original plans were predicated on a blend of the stockpiled ore all the way until around February 2026. But because we have so much more of that ore and it's performing not as well as we would have liked, we now anticipate that blend strategy taking longer and perhaps with a bit less equipment than we would have liked. And therefore, we can't guarantee that we're going to be able to deliver on that 6 million pound per annum run rate with the combination of the saturated stockpiled ore, the excessive amount that we have compared to where we thought we'd have it, and the delay to mobilization of the mining equipment.

Okay. And maybe just I might need to take that one off-line. Just one last one, maybe it's not just you guys, like have you seen outages anywhere else, Husab, Rossing? Could we get maybe some spot price relief, as it may be a silver lining, but have you heard anything operationally of your peers?

Yes. It's actually a little bit difficult to get information on exactly how they're performing. But anecdotally, we know they have been impacted by the rain as well. We know that one of those 2 mines had a significant electrical trip as well. So we do understand that they have been similarly affected by the events.

Your next question comes from Milan Tomic from JPMorgan.

Just interested if you're able to provide an indication of where you see recovery rates and the grade profile over the next couple of quarters. I appreciate you can't give specific numbers, but can we still expect recoveries to be in the 85% to 90% range? And just where do you see the grade profile? Has the rain affected the grades in any way?

The grade profile is always going to be a function of the feed materials, and we always anticipated improvement in grade as we move into the mining phase. So the stockpile will be what the stockpile has been, I suspect. And the ongoing grade profile will depend on our ability to mine the Eastern pits. In terms of recovery, what we've been able to do since last year is undertake a range of different improvement projects in the plant and deliver overall recovery rates within our target range of 85% to 90%. And we're not seeing that impacted by any of the conditions that we've experienced in the last couple of weeks. And I anticipate our recovery rates will remain in that range through to next year.

Your next question comes from Mitch Ryan from Jefferies.

Can you just quantify the number of days that the operations were suspended? So obviously, you've given us a time line of the rain events, but when was access to site first impacted? And then how long has the site been down for?

Yes. It's a really good question, Mitch. Thank you. So as I mentioned, there were 2 specific rain events. And the first rain event, which occurred on March 7, had minor impacts and stopped our ability to feed the plant because the raw material was absolutely saturated in a very short amount of time. And we also had slippery dangerous conditions on the ROM. So we lost a day or so right upfront feeding the plant. But the rest of the plant remained operational. When the second rain event occurred, over a period of 3.5 days, that's when we started losing access to site, and we had limitations on being able to bring people, equipment, materials to site. And what that meant was we also lost further days feeding the plant. While most of the plant remain running towards the end of that period, we were unable to then package product because we couldn't get people to the plant. We had limitations on putting some reagents into the plant, which has affected our chemistry and our process balance and some days in feeding the crusher. So it's kind of -- it's not as if you get rain, things stop and then restart. There are different parts of the plant that were suspended in different periods of time during the rain event. So overall, we've probably lost 4 or 5 days of production, but the bigger impact is moving forward into the mining area where the G pits have been completely inundated with water, and we're now unable to access the medium- and high-grade material from those pits to put into the plant. That's the issue that's going to cause us more delays than the actual stoppage and disruption to the processing plant.

Okay. And then -- okay. So clearly, there's multiple factors there that have been impacted. But do you have a sort of an expectation of when the plant will return to a normal operation, whether sort of the balances will be level and the feed will be consistent? Should we be thinking in units of days or weeks or months?

It's really hard to say, Mitch. If I reflect back to the complete restart between January 20 last year and March when we started producing, it took quite a few weeks to stabilize production. My expectation, it will be in that sort of period of time before we see the plant stabilize. It also depends on how the stockpile ore moisture content sort of goes over the next couple of weeks as well.

Yes. I understand that. And then could you provide us a bit of color? Obviously, there is access to the G pit and I guess, the controllables inside your fence, but then there's obviously been key damage to access roads and civil infrastructure. Can you outline the expected sort of remediation time line for those and/or any CapEx that would be sort of Paladin's to bear?

Yes. So the road that goes from the main highway to the access road is the C28 road. There's a little bit of damage on the C28 road, and the impact of that at the moment will be slower moving traffic than normal, but it's not significant. There was damage to a plant that supports the NamWater pipeline. That was repaired within 24 hours. We have the access road to site, which is a dirt road. That has -- that's still a bit untidy, but it's operable. We had another section of NamWater pipeline along that access road that was damaged that took 48 hours to repair and has subsequently been repaired. So outside of that, we're not seeing any significant damage. Most of the damage is to civil works around the site, so mine roads, the roads around the plant, erosion of our bunding. And so the vast majority of the work is OpEx. It's graders and diggers. It's weeks of work. So it's not hugely costly, and we don't anticipate requiring any capital to recover from this situation.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from James Bullen from Canaccord.

Just another question around contractual commitments. I guess a 1 in 50-year rain event should probably qualify for force majeure. But Alex, you've got a GBP 250,000 loan facility, don't you? Could you remind us how much is drawn on that?

Yes, James, thanks for the question. So in terms of the FM clauses, yes, we do have ability to invoke those clauses, but we will do everything possible to meet our deliveries on time, which at this point, we expect to do so. But as Paul outlined, a lot of the impact will be going forward and into the future, which we're still assessing. But we do have those protection mechanisms. We do have volume flex, and we will be working very closely with our customers to minimize or avoid -- and avoid any impact on deliveries. In terms of the loan material, we had a loan of $200,000, which we are repaying at the end of this month, and that's all on track. That material has been delivered to a converter for a book transfer. And then we have another loan outstanding of $200,000, which will be repaid next year.

Got it. Got it. And just trying to understand, so pulling guidance, initially, you were planning for mining operations to commence in June. And so that's been pushed out a little bit. But just around the pulling of the guidance, is there anything else in there apart from just the rain event that's resulted in you pulling the guidance?

James, no, look, the rain event is significant. We're not talking about a small amount of rain. This is a massive amount of rain. Let's not forget that Langer Heinrich Mine sits in the middle of a desert. And typically, it's not well set up for high volumes of rain. And what we have received is massive rain, and it's been very localized at Langer Heinrich. But also you can see the news events of flash flooding all across Namibia and damage to roadways. It's a massive event. The ground at Langer Heinrich is absolutely saturated. The pits are absolutely full of water. We had identified one pit that had already broken ground on it. It's completely full to the brim. Another area that we've identified has significant top soil. It's got erosion around it, access is difficult. It's a significant event. And on top of that, we've got the stockpiled ore, which now is completely saturated as well. And so it's just going to take us a while to work through all of those factors to restabilize the processing plant after a period of disruption, which may have only been a couple of days, but it's a process that has a more than 50-day residence time, and it takes some time to restabilize that process. So all of those factors together complicate the recovery efforts. And at this point in time, we can't stand behind those guidance as a consequence of all of those factors.

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Hemburrow for any closing remarks.

Thank you, everybody, for dialing. Really appreciate your time. As I've stated already, we had a significant event. It's a 1 in 50-year rain event. It's unprecedented for Langer Heinrich Mine. It's significantly disrupted operations. It's delayed our commencement of the advanced mining campaign. But the plant is up and running, and we're working towards normal operations. We'll continue to work hard on ramping up the mining activity as conditions and equipment allow. And I look forward to updating you at the April quarterly. So thank you for your time, everybody. Have a good day.

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.