Pandox AB (publ) ($PNDXB)

Earnings Call Transcript · April 29, 2026

OM SE Real Estate Real Estate Management and Development Earnings Calls 61 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

Operator
#1

Welcome to the Pandox Q1 presentation for 2026. [Operator Instructions] Now, I will hand the conference over to Head of IR and Communications, Anders Berg. Please go ahead.

Anders Berg

Executives
#2

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this presentation of Pandox Q1 interim report for 2026. I'm here together with Liia Nou, our CEO; and Anneli Lindblom, our CFO. And today, we also have the pleasure of having both, Roche, Vice President at STR; and Henrik Carlson from Benchmarking Alliance with us. Liaa and Henrik will provide a hotel market update on Europe and Nordics, respectively. And we think that this will be a particular interest considering the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East and elsewhere for that matter. . And as you all know by now, STR benchmarking lines are both leading independent research firms dedicated to hotel market and the views they express are completely separate from Pandox. And we offer this presentation as a service to Pandox stakeholders. And EFS and Henrik's presentation will be held after we have completed our formal earnings presentation, including the Q&A. So with that, we start with Anneli's and Liia's business update and the financial highlights followed by the Q&A session. So with that, I hand over to Liia.

Liia Nõu

Executives
#3

Thank you, Anders, and good morning, and welcome, everyone. The seasonally small first quarter marked a promising start to the year. In our existing portfolio, the positive trend from Q4 last year continued, and we report positive like-for-like growth in both business segments. This was explained by broad-based improvements in the European hotel market with both higher occupancy levels and largely stable prices, which signaled the hotel market is fundamentally strong. Demand was particularly strong in the meeting segment in selective cities while leisure channel was stable. With the acquired Dalata as the main driver, our reported growth was strong. The Lot is performing according to plan and is legal -- and the legal separation is ongoing. Growth in both business segments was negatively affected by adverse currency effects. In the leases business segment, demand improved, however, with variations between markets. In total, the like-for-like growth was 2%. The Nordics developed the best with good rent growth in Sweden and Denmark. Finland was stable, but negatively affected by the ongoing renovation of Grand Marina in Helsinki. Growth in the U.K. picked up, while growth in Germany was slightly positive. Like-for-like revenues increased by 3% in own operations, which together with a positive business mix and higher productivity resulted in a like-for-like increase of 8% in net operating income. For the group, total revenues increased by 11% and net operating income increased by 25% in the quarter. It's worth mentioning that Dalata is included in our numbers from 7th of November, and the first quarter being the first full quarter with Dalata numbers included. Cash earnings per share increased by 12% and includes minority interest in BidCo, which is our acquisition vehicle of Dalata. The compensation or say alternative cost for Enos bar is set at 8% for the corresponding SEK 1.3 billion investment. And 2026 numbers also include part of 2025. This compensation is treated as a financial cost, is capitalized and is expected to be paid out when Pandox acquires the remaining 8.8% of AnosBars minority interest for SEK 1.3 billion, which we expect within 2, 3 years. Growth in EPRA NAV per share was a solid 14%. We had an active new finance and refinancing quarter of some SEK 12 billion. The average repayment period increased to 2.2 years from 1.9% in the fourth quarter. At the same time, lower credit margins in the refinancing will provide financial savings of approximately SEK 90 million annually. Loan-to-value, including minority holding in BidCo was 52.3% compared to 52.7% at the end of the fourth quarter. And including the paid dividend in April, the LTV was 53.2%. On this page, we summarize some basic facts on Pandox. We are active in Europe, the world's largest hotel and tourism market with strong structural growth drivers. We only invest in hotel properties and create value through active and engaged ownership. We have long-term revenue-based leases with a vote of 13.5 years and good guaranteed minimum rent levels with skilled operators. And please note that the reported bolts excluding the expected new revenue-based leases with Scandic for the Dalata portfolio and will thus increase after the legal separation is completed. Our property portfolio has an average blended valuation yield of 6.37% and the yield spread of a strong close to 250 basis points. We systematically invest in climate chain projects in our portfolio with good returns based on our 5-day targets validated -- validated targets. We have strong cash flow and a balanced financial position, which enable us to drive continuous profitable growth through acquisitions of new properties and investments in our existing portfolio over time. We have a strong and well-diversified hotel property portfolio consisting of 192 hotel properties with approximately 42,500 rooms in 11 countries and 90 cities and with a property market value of approximately SEK 93 billion. We are divided into 2 mutually supportive and reinforcing business segments, leases and owned operations. In leases, where we own and lease out our hotel properties, it stands for 84% of the property market value. In our owned operations, which has formed and run hotels in properties we own. Owned operations make up for some 16% of our property market value. The focus of our portfolio is in strong locations, mainly upper mid-market hotels with mostly domestic demand, which is the backbone of the hotel market, regardless of which phase the hotel market cycle is in. We also have one of the strongest network of brands and partners in the hotel property industry. This ensures efficient operations and revenue management, which maximize cash flow and property values and the continuous flow of business opportunities. And also, a relative large part of the advancement in leases is shared with the tenant, which lowers our risk. Here, we have a breakdown of the performance in the first quarter 2026 for selection of countries, regions and cities versus the first quarter of 2025. We show average daily rate on the vertical axis and occupancy on the horizontal axis. In the boxes, we indicate how much higher or lower RevPAR is compared with the corresponding period 2025. As you can see, the majority of cities and countries are in the upper right box, which is the place to be, since it indicates both higher occupancy and higher prices. In terms of RevPAR, the greatest relative improvements during the period took place in the Nordic markets with Denmark and Copenhagen as the leader. Sweden continued in positive trends, and Finland saw a good pickup. Norway, which has been a very strong market in recent years, saw stable RevPAR development on high levels. U.K. and Ireland noted good growth and Germany also grew but at a slower pace. Hanover shows the dependence many Germans did this have on trade fairs. Hanover Messe, one of the world's largest trade fair, took place in March last year, compared with April this year. Roche from SDR and Carlson from benchmarking Alliance will talk more about these underlying trends in the hotel market later on this call. So stay tuned for that. At every point in time, we have our projects rolling, big and small. At the moment, we have approximately 50 projects planned and ongoing in 8 different countries. The projects vary from high-yielding investments like adding more rooms in existing hotels, converting nonyielding spaces into guest rooms, for instance, cabins rooms or adding more beds into existing rooms. Two more bread and butter investments like cyclical product, uplifts and room, bathroom renovations. In the leases business segment, we share the investment with our channels. Both parties enjoy the upside potential and share the risk. In the owned operation business segment, we take 100% of their investment, have full control and can benefit in full from the value creation and the cash flow generated by them. On this slide, you can see some examples of our bigger ongoing projects. Every year, we invest more than SEK 1 billion into our existing portfolio. The Dalata portfolio is young and strong. However, with acquisition comes 2 large and exciting projects. One offers the hotel conversion with 172 rooms in city center Edinburgh and a large expansion of 115 rooms in Clayton Cardiff Lane in Dublin. Both are exciting plus 10% yield on cost projects expected to be finalized in 2026 and 2027. And with that, I hand over to Anneli Lindblom, our CFO.

Anneli Lindblom

Executives
#4

Thank you, Liia. So good morning, everyone. As Liia said, we have seen positive development in most of our key markets, where Sweden, Denmark and U.K. stand out on the most positive side. Currency had a negative effect on revenue of minus SEK 75 million in the quarter. But to be fair, we also had a positive effect on property market valuations. . In the first quarter, total revenue and group net operating income increased by 11% and 25%, respectively, driven by acquisitions and overall positive like-for-like. Leases reported growth of 25% in revenue and 26% in net operating income, driven by acquisition and positive like-for-like. Owned operations reported lower revenues negatively affected by 2 hotels fewer than last year. Firstly, the divestment of Crown Plaza Antibe in the beginning of February, and secondly, the reclassification to leases of Numa gallery from the 1st of April. Net operating income increased and was supported by a favorable business mix, good productivity and some elevated costs in the comparable quarter. The positive comparison effect from elevated cost is expected to be eliminated from the second quarter onwards. And as Liia said earlier, we have minority holding as a financial liability with an interest rate, which affects cash earnings. And as I said earlier, currency had a negative impact on earnings, but positive on the property values in the quarter. In the first quarter, 15% of total net operating income and 18% of our hotel properties were derived in SEK. Currency exposures are largely in form of currency translation effects. And to reduce the currency exposure in foreign investment Pandox's aim is to finance the investment in local currency. Equity is normally not hedged as Pandox's strategy is to have a long investment perspective. On this slide, we show the change in the main valuation parameters for the total property portfolio year-to-date. The investment properties are recognized at fair value, and according to IFRS, unrealized changes in value for operating properties are only reported for information purposes and is included in our EPRA energy. For the period, the total unrealized changes in value were a negative SEK 53 million, explained by a positive effect from lower yields, but a negative effect from cash flow. As I said earlier, property values benefited from a depreciation in the Swedish kroner towards the end of the quarter. For the income statement, however, the average blended rate was clearly stronger than last year, which had a sizable, but negative effect. End of period, the average valuation yield for investment properties increased from 1 basis point to 6.29%. For operating properties, it decreased by 7 basis points to 6.78%, explained by the divestment of the Crowne Plaza Hotel. The blended yield remained flat at 6.37%. Here, we have the average yield average interest on debt and NRB per share quarterly, the average interest on debt end of period was stable at 3.9%, and the yield spread was impacted at around 250 basis points. At the end of the period, EpranArrea reached SEK 232 per share with a solid 13.9% growth adjusted for paid dividend in 2025. And our LTV at the end of the quarter amounted to 50.3%, including the minority holdings, which is reported as a finance liability partnering IFRS. Including paid dividend in LTV is at 53.2%, and we are well within our financial policy range on both numbers. The ICR on a rolling 12-month basis was 2.5x adjusted for preparatory financial cost of SEK 59 million, the ICR was 2.6x. Cash and credit facilities amounted to SEK 3.1 billion. And on top of that, we have unencumbered assets with a value of some SEK 850 million as an untapped reserve. The trend with good demand from banks and lower credit margins remained intact. We were very active on new financing and refinancing. New loans and refining amounted to SEK 12 billion, which together increased the average repayment period to 2.2 years from 1.9 years in the fourth quarter 2025. As Liia said, this will reduce our annual financial cost by SEK 90 million. Our net debt-to-EBITDA is temporarily elevated, as we have the impact from the debt related to the acquisition of Dalata and have yet to benefit from the full EBITDA contribution. At the end of the quarter, we have SEK 9 billion of debt maturing within 1 year, including the acquisition facilities related to the Dalata. Our bank relations are strong across the markets, and we have ongoing and positive discussions on future financing and refinancing. And there is a strong appetite among Nordic and international banks to finance our hotel properties. At the moment, we have 55% of the net debt hedged, which is a low level compared to the last few years. And with that, I will hand back to Liia for some final remarks.

Liia Nõu

Executives
#5

Thank you, Anneli. The situation in the Middle East is very unfortunate and sad. As we all know, it's a fluid and highly complex situation, which is difficult to assess. Personally, I think time is the main factor. The longer the conflict continues, the more tangible the economic effects will most likely be. That said, Europe is a safe and attractive destination. More than 80% of the hotel demand is generated by domestic and intra-regional travel. Hotel demand is structurally healthy with RevPAR driven by price and occupancy. And we have a solid event calendar for Q3, Q3. So all in all, it appears Europe is a relatively -- in a relatively good position. To summarize, the hotel market good trend continued in Q1 2026 and is fundamentally strong. We saw no clear impact from the conflict in the Middle East in the quarter. Future effects from the conflicts are difficult to assess and depends on many factors. Demand effects expected to be patchy, mainly driven by changes in mix between intercontinental and intra-regional demand. Uncertainty tends to be overcome and not materially reduce the willingness to travel. Possibly, net effect of less intercontinental travel may be increased intra-regional travel in Europe. And Dalata provides more diversification and room growth. We want to highlight that next week on the 5th of May, we will host a Capital Markets Day in London. The presentation starts at 8:30 U.K. time and will continue until lunch. If you can't join in person, the day will also be possible to follow via webcast. So please go to our website for more information. And with that, we now move over to the Q&A. So operator, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

Operator
#6

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Fredrik Stensved from ABG Sundal Collier.

Fredrik Stensved

Analysts
#7

A couple of questions from my end. I would like to start off with the sort of debt or net financial expense related to share of Dalata. I understand how it's calculated. It's 8% of their investment. Does that also mean that, that figure is sort of fixed, i.e., if the earnings go up or down in the future, will it still be 8% of the end of par investment? Or does that figure change? .

Anneli Lindblom

Executives
#8

Yes. It is fixed, and it won't change. So it's 8% of the corresponding SEK 1.3 billion, and it should be seen as a sort of financial investment from side. It was a very important part of being able to do this fantastic Dalata transaction. But it's sort of -- the alternative cost of compensation is 8%. 2026 numbers also include 54 days of 2025. It's treated in financial costs versus in minority as a lower down. So, yes.

Fredrik Stensved

Analysts
#9

Yes, that's clear. Yes. Just 1 more clarification on this in your press releases from last fall when you sort of gave more information on the deal, you said that the expected cash earnings accretion or cash earnings increase for Pandox was SEK 450 million. Does that include sort of a negative 100 then for Andaspar?

Liia Nõu

Executives
#10

No, the SEK 450 million, which we said, which is with the corresponding FX rate, we stay with that, but it does not include the minority interest, which we was expected. We thought it was treated as a minority interest. But according to IFRS, we now treated as a financial placement, thus the SEK 450 million did not include that compensation.

Fredrik Stensved

Analysts
#11

Okay. So all else equal, the SEK 450 million included minorities, but not the new sort of treatment, meaning the net effect is negative 50? Or how should we think about that?

Anneli Lindblom

Executives
#12

I mean, it included the minority treatment. But now, as we instead have it as an interest, it would be higher because we are now at 8% full. I mean, minority, you actually have 8.8% of that lower line in the profit and loss. So it is -- you can say that half of the number was not in the SEK 450 million that we were talking about in the Q4. So it can be for half of it as an extra expense that we were aware of that we should sort of have in the numbers.

Liia Nõu

Executives
#13

In the company-wise.

Anneli Lindblom

Executives
#14

Yes, the company-wise, but complex.

Fredrik Stensved

Analysts
#15

Yes, it is. That's why we have to ask all these questions. Okay. Secondly, you talked about sort of the geopolitical uncertainty. You mentioned in the CEO letter that traveling from the Middle East and Asia and U.S. might look slightly softer in the upcoming quarters, but European travelers will sort of stay in Europe. But simply, what's your best take or best guess on what this means in terms of net-net for Pandox?

Liia Nõu

Executives
#16

Well, it's obviously difficult to assess, but I am I'm personally hopeful that there will be sort of a net larger intra-regional travel. You see when the tourist economics, they have revised their outlook for 2026 global travel from 8% to 6%, but for all destinations, except for Europe, which actually increased from 6% to 8%. So more travel will stay within Europe as expected. I share that belief. We do see that intercontinental travel when we look at bookings for the summer is down. But again, more than 80% of the demand is domestic and intra-region. So we believe -- I believe that it will be a sort of -- if not a positive, at least a good balance.

Fredrik Stensved

Analysts
#17

Yes. That's fair. Last question. I believe you're also right in the report that there are sort of ongoing dialogues and valuations related to the Real Hospitality Group in Germany. Can you add any sort of color on the latest news and potential impact for Pandox.

Liia Nõu

Executives
#18

Yes, it's an ongoing process. The administrator for Revo is working -- in the middle of working with this and with negotiant their credit holders. We are convinced that we will -- that this will be a sort of a limited financial impact for us, whether we will sort of continue the leases or whether we'll intermediate take them in their own operations to lease them out afterwards. But we do have bank guarantees. We do have sort of security for this. So we are following it, but it is in process. .

Operator

Operator
#19

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Albin Sandberg from SB1 Markets.

Albin Sandberg

Analysts
#20

I just wondered, a little bit about the Easter impact. Can you quantify that?

Liia Nõu

Executives
#21

With the Easter impact, I think it's very minor. There's some calendar effect when it comes to how you actually have your conferences and meetings, et cetera. As I said in Hanover, you have the Hanover in March last year and a little bit depending on also when the Easter is set, but it's very marginal. So I would say less than 0.5% or something like that.

Albin Sandberg

Analysts
#22

And also just a follow-up on the North minority thing. The Q1 run rate -- sorry, not the Q1 impact, is that a good proxy for the full year impact?

Liia Nõu

Executives
#23

It's...

Albin Sandberg

Analysts
#24

I mean annualized for total.

Liia Nõu

Executives
#25

Yes. It's -- as I said, it's 8% or SEK 1.3 billion is the annual compensation that AnosBar is getting for their financial placement or investment. And in 2026, we have some catch-up in '20 or some SEK 10 million, SEK 11 million, which is also taking over the year in 2026. So ongoing 8% to SEK 1.3 billion, that's SEK 105 million or so. But this year will be impacted just by accounting treatment also for 2025.

Albin Sandberg

Analysts
#26

Okay. Good. And then also on that positive impact on the refinancing you were mentioning, will that be seen from Q2 and onwards? Or were there any effect of that already in Q1?

Liia Nõu

Executives
#27

Yes. We have done 2 larger refinancings in Q1. So it comes -- starts immediately, but then, of course, one has to remember that there is the uncertainty around the base rate, but the SEK 90 million annual savings will start from end of Q1 going forward. .

Operator

Operator
#28

There are no more phone questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers. The next question comes from Artem Prokopets from UBS.

Artem Prokopets

Analysts
#29

Apologies, I joined a bit late. So help me with some of the -- could you please share what was the contribution of Dalata to revenue and net operating income in the first quarter?

Liia Nõu

Executives
#30

Well, as I said, we are in the midst of the integration process on the carve-out. So it's on a plan, but it's sort of a little bit less than 20% of the revenue of the -- not the full Dalata, but obviously on the 31 properties that we own and how we account for the future leases. So it's slightly around SEK 220 million, which is sort of the say the rent -- expected rent.

Artem Prokopets

Analysts
#31

And just last question from me on the pipeline. So in the Dalata reporting, there were visibility studies in Dublin and Manchester Airport. So I just wanted to ask if those projects, kind of feasibility studies are still underway? Is there any clarity on if Pandox will go ahead with any of those projects, so Dublin and Manchester Airports?

Liia Nõu

Executives
#32

We are looking at a lot of different investment opportunities in the Dalata portfolio. So we have not taken any decisions on where we stand on the specific investments for time being.

Operator

Operator
#33

There are no more phone questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers.

Anders Berg

Executives
#34

Okay. And with that, we move into the market sort of analysis section. So I'll leave the word over to Ita Roche. Please go ahead.

Unknown Attendee

Attendees
#35

Good morning, and thank you for having me this morning. And hopefully, what I share will give you a little bit more insight to what Liia and Anneli have already shared. So I would concur with a lot of what they have both said. So firstly, 3 months to February 2026, global demand was growing at about 2.2%, slightly down on prior year. And in March, global demand growth slowed to 1.4%. So we very much see a repeat of March last year when we had Trump's announcement of Liberation Day. This year, we have the conflict to deal with. European occupancy grew by 1% in the month of March and year-to-date that also sits at 1%. Of note, Middle Eastern occupancy, as you can see here, is in decline by 11% year-to-date. In the month of March, occupancy declined by 31%. And the most impacted market, as you can imagine, is Dubai, which has declined by 51% in the month of March. On the flip side, however, Saudi is experiencing this conflict differently, and Jedah itself grew by 13%. Year-to-date, we see a 3% ADR growth across Europe. Northern Europe has experienced some declines, declining by 1.9%, but Southern Europe saw an ADR growth of 7% despite flat occupancy. Now, for the Middle East, a strong performance in January and February in ADR terms has allowed the Middle East to retain its positive ADR trajectory. However, in the month of March, there was a decline of 6%, and that continues with greater pace in April. Once again, Dubai is the most impacted with this 27% decline in rates. Going back to Europe. European markets, like I said, in aggregate, grew by 1% in the month of March in terms of occupancy, but the majority of markets saw negative occupancy gains in the month, exceptions to the trend you can see in Eastern European markets and some markets in the U.K., namely Manchester and Edinburgh. Higher occupancy countries are more susceptible to declines are minimal growth. Recovery markets, see occupancy growth, as you can see to the left here, whereas recovered regions, such as the U.K., see little to no growth in occupancy terms. In ADR terms, however, despite occupancy losses or minimal growth, we do see growth in most markets. Not all markets are equal as ever with some exceptions highlighted here, namely Amsterdam and London. So quickly to touch on Amsterdam on the rate front, ADR declines have been fairly consistent and in the month at around 5%. Now, given that the VAT increase was much higher than that, it seems that much of this VAT increase is being passed on to the consumer. The outlook for 2026 for Amsterdam remains the same as we have seen in the first quarter. For London, with occupancy flat to negative across all classes in the London market, there is little opportunity for ADR to grow, and specifically, luxury is struggling to drive any meaningful rate growth having grown by just under 2% year-to-date. March was no different with high high-end London hotels struggling to sell their rooms, reflective of a lack or a slowdown in bookings from big spending Middle Eastern customers. And going into 2026, we did expect Southern European and Mediterranean destinations to grow at a more sedate pace than prior year. Now, Easter was a little bit of a washout for these markets, but we are now seeing a widening gap in performance of Southern Europe versus the rest in occupancy terms. Northern Europe is absolutely bolstered by the Nordics. And as Liia mentioned, intra-European travel is supporting the occupancy growth, especially on the weekends and during the holiday period. From an ADR standpoint, the split is very obvious. Southern and Eastern European destinations are expected to have a very good year in ADR terms. That's not to say that Northern and Western Europe won't, but the substitution effects for the South, along with affordability in the East, which has continued from last year, will probably make these 2 regions stand out a bit more. Now, going to Easter, and there was a question there in the Q&A, Easter does slow down hotel performance every year. And 2026 was no different with the weak prior back 4% on occupancy, but you can see there's a little bit of growth in ADR. And the Easter week itself declined by 10% on prior year and bringing the ADR down with it. Now, we do observe this decline when there is a date shift. And we can see on the left here, you can see that compared to 2024, there actually was some growth, but when compared to 2025, which -- where Easter started 2 weeks later, there is a decline. Now, although there is no doubt that we have seen and will continue to see diverted traffic from Middle East back into Europe, Easter date shift meant that the travel hotspots were much quieter than last year. Now, moving to the United Kingdom. Easter weekend was actually a success for many U.K. markets when compared to last year. The combination of good weather and the appeal of staying closer to home ment that early Easter actually worked quite well for many of the U.K. staycation markets. In the month of March, 52% of all U.K. submarkets reported a positive RevPAR growth, and the U.K. grew RevPAR by 2% in the month of March itself. Now, of course, variations persist across the classes with demand for the U.K.'s mid-scale and economy segment down year-to-date by 0.5%, both resulting in a negative RevPAR growth for the economy class. The upper mid-scale and upscale on the other hand, have seen demand grow by 1.2% year-to-date -- or in the last 12 months, which have resulted in a positive growth year-to-date, as you can see in the middle of this chart here. And stepping up to luxury and upper upscale hotels, demand continues to grow. And despite supply growing by 1.4% in the last 12 months, these segments see positive RevPAR growth again. Now, looking in more detail to the U.K. as a whole, occupancy runs at 70% for the U.K., so high occupancy when compared to many other countries in Europe. So growth is stable 0.1%. We are starting to see some declines creep into the mix with more domestic markets seeing year-on-year occupancy declines. Rate growth at 1% is no different again to the rest of Europe. Softer rate growth in London, though, is telling of perhaps a softening in international long haul and luxury segment demand. And if you look at Belfast, by comparison, much of that is due to supply chain. So each market has its own story to tell, which is resulting in either positive occupancy ADR gains. And just to quickly touch on Ireland's performance so relevant now with Dalata in the mix, the provinces have outpaced Dublin growth by 0.5% year-to-date March 2026, but as you can see to the right here, the performance is very mixed across the reporting markets. Regionalization in Ireland and a very strong domestic demand are great drivers for this market. And to the million dollar question, again, asked in the Q&A, will interregional and domestic travel support European markets this summer? Or will all be done with travel and living costs rising to levels that put a hold on discretionary spend? Now, if we look at the Middle East region first, the region felt the full impact of the war in the month of March, as you can see from this slide. The GCC countries feel it much more than most with the UAE declining occupancies by almost 50% and RevPAR by 57%. Bahrain follows with an occupancy decline of 36% and RevPAR of 28%. Most markets are running on less than 50% occupancy now with the exception of Saudi and that varies significantly market-to-market. And again, if we go back to the UAE, most impacted by the lack of international demand, Dubai occupancy sits at 33% in the month of March and Abu Dhabi 47%. Now, where we are seeing some change in the dynamics of that market is the attraction of domestic demand. And this is why Saudi is operating at a higher occupancy level. There is really only domestic demand to play with now. And as a result, rate has declined rapidly across key markets. You can see to the right, $127 averaging across all of these markets in the week ending 11th of April. Rates on the whole have declined by 30% in that period. Although the Middle East as a source market is relatively small for many markets in Europe, there is no doubt that hotspots such as London, Paris and even the in the -- and the luxury segment as a whole will be impacted by the conflict. We do, however, have to take into consideration the impact the conflict has on the consumer on the whole, but the sentiment and the financial elements. So according to tourism economics, Europe is the best positioned of all world regions for travel displacement. Purely from a demand perspective, Europe faces the least risk of all world regions, primarily due to the staycation and intra-regional opportunity. Of course, there are risks to that to name but a few headline inflation spikes as we are seeing, rising fuel costs being the main story right now, and of course, the safety perception of traveling on the whole. Sorry, let's go to Slide 2 to end. Right now, it does look like on the left, you can see that aerospace is closed around the region, resulting in that pure lack of international demand. Aircraft is diverted making the travel longer to Asia and from Asia into Europe and making it, of course, more expensive. Now, this could get worse, of course, with seat capacity being cut already by airlines due to looming or potential fuel crisis. So although the outlook is soft when we look at bookings in the next 90 days, remembering that this is going up until the end of June, so not really into the summer period as yet, demand is coming in very late, and there is last-minute pickup, which seems to correct occupancy level when we compare it to last year. So any negative business on the books here generally will correct itself into stable or positive growth. We are seeing some positive pickup in European leisure markets, and like I said, last-minute bookings and our diversion from the Middle East and Asia may boost this pick up even further. So you can see to the left here, all of the usual leisure spots are seeing positive pickup when compared to last year. Now, in a report that Amadeus issued recently, they forecasted air supply, although we are seeing seat capacity being cut, there are many destinations where air supply is growing by double digits, particularly in Eastern Europe. Some countries that were cited were Poland, Romania and Hungary. The Nordics and Spain also get a mention in that top 10. So every market is going to experience this crisis differently. Our short- to medium-term forecast issued on February 27. So a day before the conflict started undoubtedly questionable despite how light they are already, for the most part, there are so many variables to consider in terms of what the impact might be. The longer it drags on the bigger and longer lasting, of course, that its impact will be. But as yet, we are not seeing widespread impacts across Asia or Europe for that matter. Our new forecast or quarterly forecast will be issued again at the end of May. So to summarize, current hotel performance data does suggest muted, but positive momentum for the industry, but of course, volatility, cost pressures and geopolitical uncertainty mean the path ahead is far from linear. Thank you very much for your time, and I'm going to pass the baton to Henrik from Benchmarking Alliance.

Unknown Attendee

Attendees
#36

Thank you very much. We will now dig into the Nordic markets a little bit. At benchmarking alliance, we specialize on benchmarking for hotels in the Nordics and the Baltics since 2010 with a high coverage, meaning that we have a very good picture of the market data in this region, not only in the capitals, but also in the regional cities and in the countryside. So looking at the Nordics and the countrywide statistics during Q1 compared to last year, we see that the positive trend from 2025 carries into Q1 2026 in general. So the blue boxes here will show you the RevPAR development of 2025 in total compared to last year, and the orange boxes will show you Q1 development compared to Q1 last year. And then in -- for example, if we start in Finland, the increase has been a little bit slower in 2025, a lot of new supply in several markets in Finland as well as a slow recovery from the Asian markets. The proximity to Russia is holding back the numbers as well. However, Finland seemed to gain now and recover in a quicker pace than before. And also, the recovery story in Baltic -- the Baltic countries continues at the years have lost Russian demand and a broader negative impact on the war in Ukraine, travelers are now returning to the region as well. We can see Riga benefited also from a notable boost in September 2025, thanks to the euro basket championships. After many consecutive years of growth in Iceland, Q1 shows a drop in both rates and occupancy and that's a notable shift in the trend. Moving into the capitals of the Nordics. In Helsinki, we see the increase here in Q1, coming mainly from March, where a couple of fares and exhibitions drove demand to the city. Oslo had a very strong 2025, and it was driven by major events such as shipping conference and summer concerts, et cetera. and RevPAR growth in Q1 2026 is notably more modest in comparison. In Stockholm, we've seen a stable increase after recovering back to positive numbers again during second part of 2025, Stockholm continues with a steady increase. And in Copenhagen, there has been an underlying high demand now for many years. But in Q1, especially major medical congresses shape both demand and pricing, including the Alzheimer's and Parkinson's Disease Conference and European Lung Cancer Congress. So if we look into -- go into detail on the capitals, we can also see here in Copenhagen, that the demand increasing, also generating 7% higher ADR, resulting in close to 15% RevPAR increase in Q1. Otherwise, smaller changes in Stockholm and Oslo, while Helsinki's fares and exhibitions in March mainly had a positive effect on demand and occupancy and not on rates. The drop in rate alike can be seen in both occupancy rates while the talent increase RevPAR through volume and in Riga, it increased through rates. Only small changes in available rooms all over the Nordics. Yes. And then just a quick look on the RevPAR development. Ancillary revenue has lifted total revenue per available room in Stockholm and Oslo, while in Copenhagen and Helsinki, it has pulled the opposite direction, dampening RevPAR development. And it's worth looking beyond the rooms department as well. Total revenue, including food and beverage, meeting and events and other outlets doesn't always move in the step with rooms performance. And that's very important to remember. And that is also precisely why we capture this data as well to give a fuller picture of hotel performance. So if we look at the Scandinavian capital by segment, we can see that in Stockholm, some new supply in the luxury segment is holding back the occupancy levels, while rates continue to climb. Mid-scale segment, supply is due to capacity that reopened after renovation and rebranding of some hotels. In the budget segment, demand growth looks healthy, but rate development is lagging behind a little bit. Moving to Oslo. Oslo luxury segment has increased both occupancy and rates, upscale less demand in Q1 and compared to last year, while mid-scale show an increase all over and budget is more or less on the same level as last year. Moving to Copenhagen. Rates in Luxury segment decreased somewhat in January, while demand still increased. Higher occupancy and rates can be seen pretty much in all segments in Copenhagen. Helsinki's performance is driven almost entirely by the luxury and mid-scale budget segments through rate growth. The rate growth remains moderate across the board. And if we look at the weekday, weekend pattern changes, weekend business during Q1 dropped in both Swedish and Norwegian Capital, which could be a sign of less private demand. However, weekday is compensated for this drop by -- indicating a relatively strong business travel. Weekday and weekend patterns in Copenhagen increase is more evenly spread. So if we go into Sweden and the Swedish regional cities compared to Sweden overall and the capital, we cover 36 markets, including all regional cities as well as some additional areas. In this graph, each bubble represents 1 market and the size of the bubble represents the RevPAR. The further up on the chart, the market is positioning themselves, the higher is the ADR. And the further to the right, the higher is the occupancy. So what we see now during Q1 is actually that the city of Loulo is the city with the highest RevPAR, which is quite unusual. But the north bottom wing and Swedish Air Force is driving a lot of demand to Lulea right now, and that has a positive effect on the hotels. And also, in an otherwise slow period as Q1, this really has a positive effect on Loulo, putting it up as the #1 market in Sweden in Q1. On the same time, we see summer destinations such as Bestic and Hallsta, still have the peak period to come, hence, the low levels here in Q1. And if we look at the change versus last year, we can see that on the top here, we have Kikansta, City of Kikansta that hosted the European Handball Championships in January. Group matches were played in Kikansta, which obviously has a huge effect for a small market like this. In the bottom, we still see Cleftio and the effects from the North Volt factory bankruptcy. Moving on to Norway. In Norway, we have a very special situation here with the Troms market, which is the Norwegian market with the highest RevPAR. Northern Lights tourism has really boomed in Northern Norway in general, but Tromsway is definitely the leader here. And obviously, Q1 is the main period of the year for this type of tourism. So with over 2,000 Norwegian kroner in RevPAR, it definitely positions Troms as #1 in Norway. If we look at the change versus last year, we see that in general, Northern Norway and the Mountain ski destinations are the ones that increased the most in Q1 compared to last year. And then, if we look at the bottom, last year's ski world championships in Trondheim obviously generates a drop in RevPAR this year. In Haugesund, Haugesund is more or less all about the shipyard industry there, and the largest industry in Haugesund is currently in a slow period with a lot of finished projects, and that's the reason why we see a drop in Haugesund. Moving into Denmark. Obviously, not so surprisingly, we see Copenhagen as the largest market, and it's also very clear on the same time that Tusan in Ferro Islands, the Q1 is definitely a low season for the Ferro Islands, but we know that this will change later on in the summer. And if we look at the change, it's definitely Copenhagen that is driving the increase all over Denmark. However, we see a strong development in more or less all the areas, actually. Moving on to Finland. Here, we have a little bit the same picture as in Norway when we look at Q1, but in Finland, it's that is driving the demand in Q1. So the Arctic tourism and not to say the least, Santa Claus is bringing a lot of people from all over the world to Robert Emi, and also, lately, increased number of direct flights to Robert Emi also has a positive effect. And Helsinki as the capital is far behind. However, of course, Helsinki is also a lot larger markets compared to Robin. Otherwise, we see most of the Finnish markets range on ADR around EUR 100 to EUR 110 and an occupancy between 55% to 70%. If we look at change versus last year, City of John is a very small market, but they hosted the World Cup competition in biathalon. And that obviously means a lot of -- a huge impact in a small market like, do in general, positive development in most cities, however, latte experience slightly less demand during the annual ski games there, and in general, a lower demand during Q1. So going into future bookings and our on the books, starting with Stockholm, we see that no big here in April compared to last year has a positive effect. The EHA Hematology Congress here in June will also have a positive effect on the books. There are 2 Bad Boney concerts in Stockholm in Strawberry Arena, 10th and 11th of July, that can already now be seen in hotel occupancy on the books as well as the weekend concert in August. So all of this together with the general positive development brings up on the books for the next coming year with 11.4%. Looking at Oslo, last year, norshipping and Congress, of course, is affecting the -- on the books negatively this year. There was also the concerts last summer that is from what it looks now is not really replaced this year. So that has also an impact on the books. Unfortunately, the under book in Oslo is minus 3.6% in the coming year at the moment. Copenhagen, positive, as always, a very stable increase here as well for the remainder of the year. We have a couple of events that brings up on the books here, 3 days of design festival in June, World Athletics road running championships in September and IDA annual conference 4th to the 9th of October, plus 8.5% the coming year. And last, but not least, in Helsinki, we also see a stronger on the books in general in the coming year, but especially during the summer. Thank you very much. If you have any questions or need any extra data from what I showed now, you are welcome to contact me at any time. Thank you.

Anders Berg

Executives
#37

Thank you, Henrik, and thank you, iffa, for these presentations. And we would like to thank you all for participating in this call. And we, as always, appreciate your time and your interest in Pandox. Our interim report for January to June 2026 will be published on the 15th of July 2026. And we will meet some of you next week in London. And if you can't participate physically, please check out the webcast, starting at 8:30 local time. So we wish you a nice and sunny spring and thank you. Bye-bye.

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