Paradeep Phosphates Limited (PARADEEP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

May 16, 2024

National Stock Exchange of India IN Materials Chemicals earnings 40 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Paradeep Phosphates Q4 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call hosted by Antique Stockbroking. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Manish Mahawar from Antique Stockbroking. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#2

Thank you. On behalf of Antique Stockbroking, I would like to welcome all the participants on the call of Paradeep Phosphates. We have Mr. Suresh Krishnan, MD and CEO; Mr. Rajesh Nambiar (sic) [ Rajeev Nambiar ], COO; Mr. Bijoy Biswal, CFO; Mr. Alok Sakena, Head, Corporate Finance and IR; and Mr. Susnato Lahiri, DGM, Strategy, IR and ESG on the call. Without any delay, I would like to hand over the call to Mr. Krishnan for opening remarks, post which we will open the floor for Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Krishnan.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#3

Thank you, Manish. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the earnings call of Paradeep Phosphates Limited. I'd like to thank you all for joining us here today. We have circulated our earnings presentation and press release and uploaded the same on our website and stock exchanges. I hope you had a chance to review the same. To start with, we'll give you an overview on the business trend and financial performance for the quarter and full year, and we would be happy to take any questions afterwards. Well, during the fiscal '23-'24, we have witnessed significant shifts in the macroeconomic landscape characterized by global uncertainty and an average rainfall pattern in the country. The raw material prices experienced a steady correction globally throughout FY '24, leading to a substantial reduction in product subsidies by the government. Demand for agriculture produced during this fiscal year has been stable and growing at a rate of 3% year-on-year. This year, as a company, we achieved higher production and sales volumes, leading to an increase in our market share. We are glad to report that we produced 2.3 million tonnes of various grades of fertilizers throughout the year, registering a strong growth of 13% year-over-year. We sold 2.53 million metric tonnes, marking a significant 25% increase from the previous year. This volume growth was primarily driven by higher capacity utilization, continuous channel engagement and expanded reach into new geographies and farmer segments. During this quarter, the company recorded a quarterly revenue of INR 22,427 million and an EBITDA of INR 1,781 million with a margin of 7.8%. The profit after tax for the quarter amounted to INR 215 million, showcasing a growth on a year-on-year basis. On a full year basis, the company achieved an annual income from operation of INR 11,575 crores. EBITDA stood at INR 716.9 million and profit after tax of INR 99.9 million. We have effectively managed our overall debt during the year. Our debt decreased by 14% year-over-year, primarily due to a reduction in the short-term borrowings. This has improved our debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting our continued commitment to prudent financial management. The Board of Directors have recommended a dividend of 5% that is INR 0.50 per equity share of INR 10 each fully paid up, subject to approval of shareholders at the Annual General Body Meeting. Key backward integration initiatives have begun yielding results as planned. Our incremental 200,000 tonne captive phosphoric acid capacity at Paradeep site is now fully operational. Additionally, the ongoing expansion of sulfuric acid capacity from 1.4 million tonnes to 2 million tonnes at our Paradeep site is progressing as per schedule and is expected to be commissioned by the first half of financial year -- by end of FY 2025. These projects are aligned with our objective of strengthening our ability to produce varied grades of fertilizer, achieve operational efficiencies and generate positive impact on our bottom line and margins in the coming days. Additionally, we are in the process of launching our indigenously researched biogenic nano urea and nano DAP fertilizers poised to deliver substantial value to soil nutrition. Simultaneously, we'll be introducing new variants of NPK fertilizers during this financial year, underscoring our commitment to product innovation and stewardship. Our commitment to ESG has been recognized through our maiden inclusion in the globally renowned S&P Dow Jones Sustainability Index for 2023. We have initiated the integration of ESG governance at the Board level and throughout the entire organization. Our CSR projects have positively impacted over 55,000 lives during FY 2024. We are in the process of setting goals in each aspect of environment, social and governance, ensuring sustainability is embedded in all aspects of our operation. Our sector looks promising with expected growth in demand, normalization of supply side prices, innovative product development and an increasing emphasis on balanced fertilization, effective nutrient absorption, soil health and farm productivity. With a favorable monsoon focus this year, we are eager to meet the demand of the upcoming kharif season, supported by our optimal product mix, enhanced farmer engagement and improved operational efficiencies. Thank you very much. And now I would like to open the floor for a Q&A. Over to you.

Operator

operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Prashant Biyani from Elara Securities.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#5

Sir, given the current subsidy and MRP levels, how do you see the profitability trending for H1 '25 vis-a-vis H1 last year?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#6

Prashant, you all very clearly realize that in the last few calls, we have mentioned that the subsidy for the MRP realization that we have resulted in not so profitable margins for some of the key grades of fertilizer, which included DAP, N10 and N12. And however, what we're getting to see right now is correction in the raw material prices, which was corrected to a certain extent, as we speak, and we expect that correction to continue. But in terms of the main grades, which is the main NPKs and DAP is concerned, the margins of H1 FY '24-'25 would be largely subject to price correction that we will need to do in the market. And we are expecting that once the monsoon picks up and the demand situation is absolutely clear in terms of the offtake progression that we'll get to see, there will have to be a correction to prices of some of the grades, which will make the viability good. I think our endeavor here would be that we have a clarity in terms of a potential of up to 10% to 12% profitability on the overall cost of sales. So we will actually be working towards our pricing model to reflect that as we go forward.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#7

Sir, on the rock phosphate side, what indications are we getting from OCP? Whether the pricing trajectory is downwards or flattish here?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#8

Well, if you look at the phosphate prices over the last 4 to 6 weeks, even though you did see India arrivals of DAP have significantly corrected, the $580, $590 levels have come down to close to about $510, we are seeing mixed trend in the market today. If you look at West of Suez, the prices are kind of holding, maybe going up a little bit. And we still have the challenges of movement through the Red Sea area. So we are taking a much longer queue in terms of what it is. So we do expect that the prices are not really going to be swinging too much, but the last year correction has been quite significant. So in terms of DAP has come down from -- to the $500 levels now quite seriously. So we would expect that this trend will continue. But today, in the immediate future for the next 3 months, we are looking at more like a flattish situation and a range-bound correction in the phosphate prices because you are still seeing good recoveries happening in West of Suez.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#9

Sir, this lower DAP price should result in lower rock price also?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#10

See, lower DAP price will result in rock price coming down. And it is already moving down, and we are seeing the trend that rock prices have already come down quite a bit over the last few quarters. And it will have a direct correlation, but with a lag of a few months.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#11

Okay. Sir, our Odisha plant was also closed due to notice by CPCB. Do you expect any impact on Q1 volumes because of it?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#12

Well, you're right that we had a closure and the plant has restarted, and we are now manufacturing at our usual levels today. As far as the impact is concerned, yes, in terms of our manufactured volume, the finished goods, we have lost about 100,000 tonnes. And in terms of phosphoric acid, I think our loss has been close to about 22,000 tonnes. However, we expect to make up the volume over the remaining part of the financial year. And if you look at the availability that we have for the first quarter and the second quarter, I think we should be able to make it up by the end of second quarter in terms of overall volumes. But let me be clear that we are optimistic today based on the predictions for monsoon and hoping that the distribution will be right. I think we'll have a clarity on the monsoon distribution in the month of June. But our entire endeavor is to ensure that we do not lose out on the margin, that we lose out on the product volumes that we lost during the month of April, and we'll certainly make this up.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#13

And lastly, sir, can we further improve our mix of NPK or we have to sell around 8 lakh tonnes to 10 lakh tonnes of DAP?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#14

Prashant, I think you also understand you've been covering this sector for a long time, and DAP is an important fertilizer. And really shying away from DAP may not be the answer to this issue today. We believe that DAP margins will have to increase. The current pricing structure, which is there where DAP is priced at the lowest end of the NPK segment is something that needs to change, and we will get to see that. But however, from our own perspective of manufacturing, I think we have been a very successful NPK manufacturer and also been in the marketing area. Our NPK and N20 market shares have significantly grown. If you look at it, our overall sales growth on NPKs have been close to about 36%, and we've also grown on N20 specifically by about 39%. So our focus will continue to be that. But a core DAP portfolio is something we will maintain because some of our markets that we are in, both North of India and Central India, these markets, currently, the farmers need DAP. So in terms of a balanced offering, a DAP is something that is required today. But a shift as it goes, we will be able to work around and make more NPKs. But for the current financial year, I personally believe that about 8 lakh tonnes of DAP is something that we will certainly get to do.

Operator

operator
#15

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Darshita from Antique Stockbroking.

Darshita Shah

analyst
#16

Hope I am audible? My first question was regarding the EBITDA per tonne movement for FY '25. We had guided for INR 4,500 to INR 5,000 of EBITDA per tonne on a sustainable basis. Considering the current MRP and subsidy, are we confident to achieve that for FY '25?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#17

Well, Darshita, I think our target and our guidance of INR 4,500 to INR 5,000 continues. And as I mentioned in the earlier calls, the Q4, I was expecting that we will not be able to maintain this margin as we're expecting a margin of around 3,500 tonnes as an EBITDA margin per tonne, which is what the final results are reflecting today. But we expect that the price increases that we'll end up taking will finally result in this kind of a margin being maintained, and that will be our guidance.

Darshita Shah

analyst
#18

What kind of price increase can we expect, I'm guessing it would be post June, in terms of percentage if you can highlight?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#19

Well, I think it's not proper for us to kind of come back and give you a price expectation today. I do not see a major correction in prices in the month of June. But as we had looked at it earlier, based on the trends that we will get to see for phosphate and DAP availability and pricing in India, we would take price corrections going forward for the month of July. And price correction would be such that we get into the EBITDA numbers that one is looking at. I know it's very important for us to see that the industry is healthy. And we believe the EBITDA margin that one is looking at in terms of INR 4,500 and upwards is something that we should reach as an organization. So we would be working towards that in terms of our pricing. But a lot will depend upon the monsoon and how it evolves over the key markets for us in the coming months.

Darshita Shah

analyst
#20

My second question is regarding the debt reduction guidance. If you can provide any number for FY '25?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#21

Well, debt reduction is something that has been a focus for us right through. And I think we did well as far as the last financial year is concerned, and we continue to work on it. And I think our endeavor would always be that year-on-year, we continue to reduce our debt. We had a -- if you know that -- if you have seen the numbers the last time, the short-term debt has come down by about 17%, long term by 10% and the total debt has come down by 14%, so which is a good number that we are in. And we would like to see them as our peak levels of borrowing as we speak. And hoping that the raw material correction is not anything towards an increase, but more towards a decrease.

Darshita Shah

analyst
#22

Got it. My third question was regarding the subsidy receivable. How much was it by the end of the year?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#23

I'll ask Biswal to respond to this.

Bijoy Biswal

executive
#24

You know this subsidy receivable at the end of the period is INR 1,840 crores.

Darshita Shah

analyst
#25

We've seen that most of the companies have seen their subsidy receivables getting cleared by the government. Is this a subsidy that you mean is it for the inventory that is in the channel or it has been like you know or the subsidy has...

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#26

This is largely for the inventory in the channel.

Darshita Shah

analyst
#27

Got it. I just had one question on the sales volume. If you can provide the traded sales and manufactured sales split for Goa and Paradeep facility?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#28

Yes. I'll ask Harshdeep to respond to this.

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#29

Just to give you an idea, we did an overall volume of 25.28 lakh metric tonnes versus last year volume of 20.3 lakh metric tonnes. That was -- we had a growth of 25% on the primary volumes. And as far as Goa is concerned, we did 1 million metric tonne sales out of the Goa volume. So that's what we achieved last year. 10.12 lakh metric tonnes and Paradeep did around 15.15 lakh metric tonnes.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#30

It's important to note that we actually crossed the 1 million tonne from the Goa facility in terms of primary sales during the last year.

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#31

And I think it's important to also note that PPL as a group, we grew significantly as far as our farmer sales are concerned. Our total sales for DAP and NPK grew to 24.77 lakh metric tonne versus 6.86 lakh metric tonnes last year. That was a 47% growth basically on the POS sales basis.

Unknown Executive

executive
#32

Darshita, to answer your question on trading volumes, we traded about close to 214,000 tonnes. That's about 8% of the total sales volume in FY '24.

Darshita Shah

analyst
#33

And just I think one last question on the channel inventory currently in the regions that we are operating in. How is the channel inventory currently? Is there enough availability or do we have any issues there?

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#34

I think, see, we are well prepared with the good monsoon that's expected. So we have good inventory in the channel, partly because there was a deficit rainfall, so it's likely the higher side, but that augurs well for the good kharif season. So we are kind of quite well spread out across the geographies. And most of our inventories are with the retail trade. That means as soon as the rainfall happens, you will see a lot of offtake of that inventory.

Operator

operator
#35

[Operator Instructions] the next question is from the line of Vinod Kumar, an individual investor. We will move on to the next participant. The next question is from the line of Hari Kumar, an individual investor.

Unknown Attendee

attendee
#36

Two questions from my side, sir. This profitability increase from INR 3,500 crores to INR 5,000 crores, is it going to come through efficiency or through increase in prices? And the second question is regarding this government giving the guidance on capping of profitability returns. Like how much that is going to affect us? Like how much room more can we increase profitability before the government guidelines come into force?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#37

Well, as regards to the EBITDA margin is concerned, it is in combination of both the raw material prices, efficiency and the final MRP that we will have. And this will also get impacted by the subsidy that government will look at. As you know that we already have a subsidy, which is announced on 1st of April, which will be valid till end of September. Thereafter, the new subsidy will be announced. So there's a complex factor. But I can only tell you one thing that there is a significant room available for us to increase our profitability within the overall guidance that government has given. So that is not going to be a constraining factor at this juncture.

Operator

operator
#38

The next question is from the line of Prashant Biyani from Elara Securities.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#39

Mr. Harshdeep, can you please repeat the POS volumes for this year and last year?

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#40

The POS volume sales last year was 16.86 lakh metric tonnes. And this year, we have done 24.77 lakh metric tonnes.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#41

This is for DAP and NPK?

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#42

Yes, this is put together. This is a combined volume. For DAP and NPK, the volumes grew from 13.17 lakh metric tonnes to 20.64 lakh metric tonnes. That was a growth of 57% over last year. And industry basically grew by around 7%. That is DAP and NPK. 24.77 lakh metric tonnes is the overall POS volume.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#43

Sure. Sir, what would be the current DAP plus NPK inventory in our books?

Unknown Executive

executive
#44

6.5 lakh tonnes.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#45

About 6.5 lakh tonnes. Not in our books, it's with our -- in our books, which includes the retailers and wholesalers, yes. In our books, it will 2 lakhs tonnes, but in terms of what we have sold and the inventory which is lying, it will be around 6.5 lakh tonnes.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#46

Sure. Sir, what would be the subsidy received for this quarter?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#47

For Q4, you're talking, Prashant?

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#48

Yes. Yes, sir.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#49

Yes, Q4. Just one second.

Bijoy Biswal

executive
#50

About INR 1,350 crores.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#51

INR 1,350 crores, correct.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#52

Okay. And sir, at which stage are we on merger with MCFL?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#53

Well, we are at the stage where we have already applied to the Competition Commission and our approvals are at an advanced stage with SEBI, post which -- and we've got the lenders' approval for the same. majority of the lenders have approved the transaction from both the companies. So we are at the last stage for filing into NCLT now.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#54

And what would be the CapEx plan for this year?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#55

Well, if you look at this year, Prashant, the way we are working on this is, we have one major project, which is a sulfuric acid project, which we'll be completing. So against the overall project budget that we have, close to about -- so we will be spending about INR 200 crores, INR 250 crores during this year in the CapEx, which is largely for the project that already been approved.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#56

And sir, any thought on setting up a phosphoric plant on the Western Coast of India?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#57

Prashant, we will respond to this question once the MCFL merger is concluded.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#58

And sir, lastly, which would be the new grades of NPK that we are planning to introduce?

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#59

So basically, one, we are also now planning to grow 28:28:0 basically as a product, okay, so which is basically quite a high water soluble product. We are also introducing a product called TSP, triple super phosphate, which is 46% P2O5. And we are also launching our bionano products, both bionano urea and bionano DAP. So these are some of the products that we are focusing on.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#60

And we believe that TSP is a product where the future is quite exciting. If the farmer finally gets to understand the benefits and we are able to get the value proposition along with the farmer clearly understood, so this could be a volume play for us in quarters to come. But I think we are going to be introducing this in kharif. And based on the response, we will be ramping up the availability of the same.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#61

And sir, lastly, this phosphate-heavy fertilizers are not very profitable for everyone in the industry. So even the phosphate-heavy consumption regions, how are the farmers there accepting NPK? Are they -- is the industry facing resistance in converting them to some grades of NPK? How is that happening, if you can highlight that?

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#62

So just to share with you, see, one of the products, which is a part of our balanced nutrition strategy is 20:20:0:13, which has got nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur. And if you see, we are getting a -- this was a grade which was mostly popular in southern markets. We have introduced it significantly in the North markets also. A market in UP, we are getting a good acceptance of this grade. So you will see a lot of this product growing. Another grade, which is a marquee grade for PPL and Zuari is 19:19:19, okay, Sampurna, which is a very well-balanced fertilizer. And we are seeing a good offtake happening for this grade also. And this is a product unique to Paradeep Phosphates.

Prashant Biyani

analyst
#63

And this also we have introduced in North?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#64

No. We have introduced more in the western part of the country and...

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#65

And southern markets.

Operator

operator
#66

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Ankur Periwal from Axis Bank.

Ankur Periwal

analyst
#67

First question on the backward integration on both phos acid as well as sulfuric acid. With post this expansion, how much will be backward integrated here from an RM procurement perspective?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#68

Ankur it is like this, as far as phosphoric acid is concerned for the Paradeep site, our endeavor would be not to import any phosphoric acid at all. The entire requirement for our granulation will be met by our own production, so we will be a fully integrated plant. The sulfuric acid plant that we are building today, it is primarily to provide the incremental sulfuric acid we need for the additional phosphoric acid capacity that we have. Currently, we are buying sulfuric acid. But with the sulfuric acid plant coming in, we'll only be importing sulfur to meet this requirement. So our current strategy today is that we -- as we speak, from this financial year onwards, there will not be any import of phosphoric acid for Paradeep site. Goa will continue to import at this point of time. We import close to 200,000 tonnes of phosphoric acid out there. And that is something that will be continuing for FY '25. And with the expansion of sulfuric acid also we'll become self-sufficient.

Ankur Periwal

analyst
#69

On the Goa site, from a production perspective, we are largely at optimum utilization or there is still scope for improvement?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#70

Like we said that we have already reached 1 million tonnes. And what we have tried in Goa is various types of product last year, and that is why we have reached a capacity of about 1 million tonne. But based on certain grades, Goa can produce up to 1.2 million tonnes. Goa is a major player in the N10 and N12 segments. And both these segments have not been viable all of last year. We expect that the N10 and N12 segments should come back because they are very crucial to the farm sector in a big way. And that will make a big difference to the overall capacity utilization from Goa. And we could see a 10% gain in the overall production at Goa site.

Ankur Periwal

analyst
#71

Great, sir. And whatever RM procurement will be required at Goa will all be imported. Are there any plans for backward integration there?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#72

Goa at this point of time, we don't -- we're not having any backward integration. I think our next phase of backward integration will be -- well, we certainly get to discuss that with you all when we conclude the MCFL transaction.

Ankur Periwal

analyst
#73

Sure. Another thing on the nano urea and nano DAP side, which you highlighted, any further details you can share? Because right now, it's largely IFFCO and Coromandel have suggested of launching those products. If you can share some details, some highlights there.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#74

Harshdeep will respond to this.

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#75

So these products, we have developed basically along with TERI basically, it's a research organization. And both of them are uniquely made products because it's a bionano product. And just to share with you, the DAP will have 6% nano nitrogen and 16% P2O5. And the bionano urea will have 8% nano nitrogen. So that's what these products are. And we have done a lot of field trials. We've got a very good response from the farmers.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#76

And we have a good capacity right now, so we are expecting the launch to take place in the next few weeks in terms of a farmer offtake. And based on the overall acceptance, I think the volumes will get ramped up. And we're certainly expecting that between the 2 products, we should first reach our milestone of 1 million units. And after that, we will evaluate in terms of what kind of a product strategy we will have.

Ankur Periwal

analyst
#77

Sure. And what will be the current capacity? And how are you looking it from a unit economics perspective? That will be helpful.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#78

Basically, if you look at it today, we have a capacity to go up to 3.5 million tonnes of units of the Tier 2 products combined. We are initially -- so that capacity is already there with us. So we are going to start with 1 million tonne. And as the 1 million tonne gets absorbed and based on that experience, we should be able to provide enough for the market and the ability to ramp it up from a 3.5 million to doubling that, it will be in a very short notice. In a matter of about 2 quarters, we should be able to ramp up capacity at the existing site.

Ankur Periwal

analyst
#79

Sure. And this product will be largely from a farmer education perspective, will be a replacement of the conventional ones?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#80

When you look at it here, I think nano DAP, we should be very clear that it's a new product for the farmer and it's going to work along with the existing DAP, absolutely.

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#81

So it is not going to be something which replaces the existing usage. It has to be seen as a product which complements the current farmer practice. The advantage is the nutrient use efficiency of the nano products is very high. So in terms of the absorption by the plant, it's greater than 90%. But because the application will be more through the foliar roots, so they have to be used in conjunction basically with the existing fertilizers.

Ankur Periwal

analyst
#82

Sure, sir. And how are we pricing it? And this will be largely at the Paradeep plant, right? Or it's at the Goa one?

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#83

No, no. See, this is being manufactured through our partner company, Zuari Farm Hub, at a site in Punjab, okay? And the distribution will happen pan-India for this product. And the pricing currently, how we're looking at it is an MRP of INR 265 a unit for nano urea. And for nano DAP, a price point of around INR 625.

Ankur Periwal

analyst
#84

And bottle will be -- okay, you said it's more a complementary. INR 255 (sic) [ 265 ] and INR 625 you mentioned, right?

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#85

Yes.

Ankur Periwal

analyst
#86

Sir, last question on the capital allocation bit. Now since there is still some debt there on the books, and we do have some expansion plans there, how should we look at the priority? Will we be looking to repay the debt first and then gradual expansion? Or how should one look at it?

Bijoy Biswal

executive
#87

See, Ankur, the way we look at this today is that the large CapEx, which is currently being executed, is only to do with the sulfuric acid plant, and for which the debt tie-up is already there. So based on the project progress, the debt will be -- that we will be able to -- we will be having the drawdown for the debt. Our idea is not to increase our debt levels from here on today. So whatever repayment that we will be doing during this year, maybe at best to that extent for any other project is required, we will be drawing long-term debt. Otherwise, the idea would be to come to a situation where long-term debt is not further -- no further drawdown of long-term debt is there in the company beyond what is committed today.

Operator

operator
#88

The next question is from the line of Mr. Manish Mahawar from Antique Stockbroking.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#89

Mr. Krishnan, just wanted to ask you, next year, FY '25, do you think we are able to sell full capacity of 3 million tonnes, in terms of volume growth perspective I'm asking?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#90

Well, Manish, it entirely depends upon the way the kharif progresses and the way we look at viability of the grades. And even this year, we could have done better had some of the grades have been more viable. So I think I would like to see N10 and N12 manufacture in India getting to be viable for us to reach the full capacity. And if that doesn't really happen, I think our utilization levels will be between 25 lakh tonnes to 30 lakh tonnes.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#91

But I think the N10 and N20 when you said, I think...

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#92

N10 and N12, Manish.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#93

Okay. N10 and N12 were unviable because of higher MOP prices, what I understand, right? And I think MOP price has corrected, so it should be viable now, or no still?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#94

If you look at it, N10 and N12 at the current prices which are prevalent in the market are not viable. And it will not be a wise thing to do a price change for these products just before the monsoon. I think we'll have to look at how the monsoon progresses and then take a call on what kind of pricing that one should take.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#95

Understood. And in terms of a market share perspective, what's our pan-India market share? And when there is incremental capacity or volume growth for the next year, which are the reason we are -- it is increasing the market in the existing market only or we are adding to other states also?

Harshdeep Singh

executive
#96

Just to kind of quickly give you an idea of market share, we're talking of basically consumption market share. Our market share grew from around approximately DAP and NPK put together by 3%, and it's around 9.4%. And in terms of our footprint, we are deepening our footprint into Bihar and UP and basically in Karnataka. So these are markets that we're trying to focus. And we will, of course, in a small way, be opening up markets of Rajasthan also. But our footprint, if you know, is quite well balanced in terms of portfolio, which we shared in this thing. We are present in all the four zones of the country, that's North, West, East and South.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#97

Okay. And while you are selling to the adjacent states like UP and Bihar, right, your profitability in terms of tonnage terms, EBITDA per metric ton, has remained same at what you are selling in the existing markets?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#98

Yes, UP is a good market, Manish. I think the profitability is quite stable there.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#99

Okay. And one question in terms of your interest cost perspective because if you look at the H1 to now FY '24 and your debt number remain same, how your interest cost has gone up in 4Q, which is INR 95-odd crores? Basically, what was the reason? That is first. And second, what could be the interest outgo one should take for the next year?

Bijoy Biswal

executive
#100

The interest cost in this quarter has gone up mainly because of this delay in the subsidy tendency. And going forward also, we should -- after repaying this long-term loan, I think the interest cost will be around INR 75 crores in the quarter.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#101

Primarily, if you look at it here, we are currently looking at an average interest cost of about INR 75 crores in a quarter. That's the kind of number that we're looking at. That will substantially change or come down based on the actual sale to the farmer and the subsidy disbursement. Currently, what we are seeing is government has been reasonably efficient. We've been getting our money in about 4 weeks from the time we sell -- 4 to 6 weeks from the time we sell. But as you know that the last quarter, even though we had a good amount of primary sale right up to the retailer level, there's a substantial buildup of POS quantity, which is pending conversion to the farmer and hence, the outstanding amounts have been high.

Unknown Executive

executive
#102

Also, you must appreciate the fact that the production quantities have actually gone up year-on-year, and therefore we had more working capital.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#103

So basically that INR 300-odd crores of interest cost one should look at for the next year, on average. Okay, understood. And in terms of context of phos acid, what was the price for 1Q or 2Q? Any contracts happened for 2Q?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#104

Look, you're asking for Q1 this year? That is...

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#105

Yes, Q1, right?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#106

April to March, I think there's already been an announcement of $968 per metric ton. I think that will be the price prevalent for India. Whatever difference we will get will be at that pricing.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#107

$968 will be the price, okay. And in the postelection...

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#108

I stand to correct it, $948, 9-4-8, yes.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#109

48, 4-8. And this is for 1Q, right, sir, April to June?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#110

April to June shipments, yes.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#111

And last quarter it was $968, I believe, right, Jan to March?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#112

$968, that's right.

Manish Mahawar

analyst
#113

And last question, in terms of election, post-election, are you expecting any changes in terms of policy environment like DBT or anything from the government side? Because it's very clear like government has cleared most of the company's subsidy this time. And how do you see the situation or any changes, expectations, sir?

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#114

Mani, this is an industry expectation that DBT 2.0 should happen, which clearly means that we would like to see a situation where government directly pays the farmer rather than routing the subsidy through us. So that has been our wish list for quite some time, it continues to be so. And we are expecting that as part of the government's new program, this will be taken up in right earnest.

Operator

operator
#115

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today's conference call. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

Narayanan Krishnan

executive
#116

Thank you, and thank you for participating. And in our earnings call, we have tried to address all your questions. In case you have any further queries, please connect with our Investor Relations team, and we'll be happy to address the same. Thank you, and have a good evening.

Operator

operator
#117

On behalf of Antique Stockbroking, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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