Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 5, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
OperatorGood morning, and welcome to the Park-Ohio Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's conference is also being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Before we get started, I want to remind everyone that certain statements made on today's call may be forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. A list of relevant risks and uncertainties may be found in the earnings release as well as in the company's 2024 10-K, which was filed on March 6, 2025, with the SEC. Additionally, the company may discuss adjusted EPS, adjusted operating income and EBITDA as defined on a continuing operations or consolidated basis. These metrics are not measures of performance under generally accepted accounting principles. For a reconciliation of EPS to adjusted EPS, operating income to adjusted operating income and net income attributable to Park-Ohio common shareholders to EBITDA as defined, please refer to the company's recent earnings release. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO. Please proceed, Mr. Crawford.
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesGreat. Thank you, [ Daryl ], and welcome, everyone, to our end of 2025 fourth quarter conference call. I am very proud of our Park-Ohio team throughout 2025 and especially during the fourth quarter. Strong cost management, combined with the benefit of improved productivity in key locations, offset demand volatility in many industrial end markets caused by tariffs and general economic uncertainty. This uncertainty also delayed new business launches throughout the year and some new business awards in a few cases. Also during the fourth quarter, we made cash management a priority and met our debt reduction goal of $40 million. Most importantly, though, we focused on our long-term goals regarding asset allocation, durable growth and deleveraging. Regarding asset allocation, we continue to invest above our maintenance capital levels as we improve productivity and lower our cost to serve through automation, information technology and vertical integration. While we continue this journey through 2026 and beyond, we're beginning to see the positive impacts on new business and improved profit flow-through. Our growth capital investment, which represented more than 1/3 of our total capital expense will not only underpin our significant growth in 2026, but is also targeted in products and services where we have above-average margins and a sustainable competitive advantage. Lastly, while we are still above our target net debt leverage ratio, our cash performance in the fourth quarter and the investment we have made toward 2026 growth, including additional working capital, should put us in a good position to take a step forward in this area. So we start 2026 extremely excited to be rewarded with above-average growth and with solid incremental operating leverage in all profitability metrics. Thank you for your support, and thank you to all of our outstanding partners in our business. Now over to Pat to cover the quarter results.
Patrick Fogarty
ExecutivesThank you, Matt, and good morning. Overall, we are pleased with our accomplishments in 2025, many of which will support future sales growth and drive improved operating margin and free cash flow. Our accomplishments during the year included the following: First, we refinanced our $350 million senior notes with new senior secured notes maturing in 2030. In addition, we amended our revolving credit agreement to extend maturity date by 5 years. The refinancing completed during 2025 provides us with the capital structure to support our sales growth and investment in future years. Second, we invested our over $12 million in information technology during the year and began the implementation of new ERP systems in Supply Technologies and in our Industrial Equipment Group. We expect significant benefits from these investments, including lower working capital levels, lower operating costs and improved information flow to and from our supply base and our customers. In Supply Technologies, we broke ground on a new state-of-the-art North American distribution center, which will be operational this year. This important investment will significantly improve how we service our customers and provide best-in-class warehouse operations with lower costs, lower working capital, automated sorting and kitting and additional value-added services to support our customers. Also in our fastener manufacturing business, we invested in automation equipment to improve plant floor productivity and operating margins in several locations. Our capital investments in this business are focused on increasing production capacity to meet the strong demand for our self-piercing and clench products. In Assembly Components, we won new business during the year, totaling over $40 million of incremental annual sales, which will launch in the second half of this year and continue through 2027. We also implemented product price increases as well as plant floor improvements to increase profitability in 2026. And finally, in our Industrial Equipment business, we achieved record annual bookings totaling $217 million, including a record $47 million induction heating order placed by a leading steel producer. As a result, our backlogs were $180 million at December 31, an increase of 24% over the prior year levels. Before I discuss our fourth quarter and full year results, I want to comment on our 2026 guidance. As outlined in our press release, we expect consolidated revenues to grow to $1.675 billion to $1.71 billion, an increase of 5% to 7% over 2025 consolidated revenues, driven by sales growth in each business segment. We expect adjusted earnings per share to increase to $2.90 to $3.20 per diluted share, an increase of 7% to 19% year-over-year. EBITDA as defined, to range from 8% to 9% of net sales, and we expect full year free cash flow to range from $20 million to $30 million. In our Supply Technologies segment, demand in power sports, industrial equipment and heavy-duty truck end markets are expected to recover from low production levels in 2025, and we expect continued sales growth from electrical distribution customers supporting the AI data center expansion and continued strong growth from semiconductor, aerospace, defense and agriculture end markets. Also, our fastener manufacturing business will continue to expand its products into new applications and will benefit from the continued use of lightweight materials and electrification. In our Assembly Components business segment, sales of our molded and extruded rubber and fuel-related products are expected to grow year-over-year, driven by increased production volumes on business launched in 2025 and improved customer pricing. In our Engineered Products segment, revenues are expected to be at record levels in 2026, driven by strong new equipment backlogs in many end markets, including oil and gas, steel and aerospace and continued growth in global aftermarket demand. In addition, our forging equipment business recently won a new equipment order with an aerospace customer and strong aftermarket order activity will drive an increase in 2026 revenues. Our Engineered Products segment is also seeing increased order activity from customers supporting the expansion of AI data centers. For example, we recently were awarded new business for power generation products, including transformers and power generators used to control and regulate power to data centers, and we are actively responding to strong demand for our forged products from turbine generator customers who also provide power for data centers. Turning now to our fourth quarter and full year results. Our fourth quarter was highlighted by operating cash flow of $49 million and free cash flow of $36 million. We used our free cash flow and excess cash to reduce long-term debt by $40 million during the quarter. Our full year operating cash flow increased to $42 million from $35 million in 2024, with the increase driven by lower working capital usage compared to 2024. CapEx totaled $40 million in 2025 with investments in information technology totaling over $12 million during the year. Consolidated fourth quarter net sales were $395 million, an increase of 2% year-over-year. The sales growth was driven by higher sales in our Supply Technologies and Assembly Components segments. In Engineered Products, demand was stable year-over-year as growth in our Industrial Equipment Group offset lower sales levels in our Forged and Machine Products Group. Full year sales totaled $1.6 billion, a decline of 4% from 2024 levels with the decline occurring primarily in North American industrial end markets. Our fourth quarter gross margin of 17.3% was 70 basis points higher than a year ago, resulting from higher sales levels and implemented profit improvement initiatives across several of our businesses. Full year gross margins were 17% in 2025, which were comparable to 2024 gross margins despite the lower sales levels. Excluding special items in both periods, fourth quarter adjusted operating income increased 4% to $20 million compared to $19 million in the 2024 period. Special items in the fourth quarter included a noncash write-off of certain assets in our Forged and Machine Products Group totaling $8.9 million to align our investments in tooling and production assets with current business levels. Our effective tax rate was 12% in 2025, which is lower than the U.S. statutory tax rate due to research and development tax credits recognized during the year. We expect a more normalized tax rate in 2026, ranging from 18% to 20%. Adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter was $0.65 per diluted share compared to $0.67 in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the decrease due primarily to higher interest expense in the 2025 quarter. Our full year adjusted earnings per share was $2.70 compared to $3.59 in 2024. And with respect to our segment results, in Supply Technologies, fourth quarter sales were $187 million compared to $182 million in the 2024 period, and operating income increased 31% to $21 million compared to $16 million last year. Operating income margin was up 240 basis points and was 11.1% of sales compared to 8.7% last year. The improved year-over-year fourth quarter results in 2025 were driven by higher sales and favorable impact of cost control measures taken during the quarter. Full year sales in this segment were $748 million compared to $776 million in 2024, driven by lower customer demand in certain end markets, primarily in North America, including power sports, heavy-duty truck and bus, and industrial and agricultural equipment, offset by continued strong demand in data center, electrical and semiconductor end markets. Full year operating income in this segment was $72 million compared to $75 million in 2024. Operating margin was 9.7% in both periods due to our efforts to reduce variable operating costs given lower demand levels. In our Assembly Components segment, fourth quarter sales were $92 million, up 2% from $90 million a year ago. Adjusted operating income was stable at approximately $4 million in both periods. Full year sales in this segment were $381 million compared to $399 million last year. Lower unit volumes on certain auto platforms and production delays on new business launches impacted revenues during the year. Full year adjusted operating income was $22 million in 2025 compared to $27 million in 2024, with the decrease driven by the lower unit volumes. We expect our operating margins in this segment to improve resulting from expanding our rubber mixing production, plant floor automation and improved margin flow-through from increased sales. In Engineered Products, fourth quarter sales were approximately $116 million in both 2025 and 2024. We continue to see strong sales in our Industrial Equipment business, which grew 5%, but was offset by lower sales in our Forged and Machine products business. Fourth quarter adjusted operating income decreased to $3 million due to lower profitability from the Forged and Machine Products Group. Full year sales in this segment were $471 million compared to $482 million in 2024. The decrease was driven primarily by the closure of a small manufacturing operation in 2024 and lower demand from the railcar end market, which impacted our Forged and Machine Products Group. We continue to see growth in our Industrial Equipment business in 2025, driven by 7% growth in our aftermarket business. Adjusted operating income was $17 million compared to $21 million last year, with the decrease driven by lower sales levels and lower profitability in our Forged Group. We expect significant improvement in operating profits in this segment in 2026 based on our strong new equipment backlog, aftermarket demand and operational improvements made in several of our plants. Now I'll turn the call back over to Matt.
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesGreat. Thank you, Pat. Before I turn it over to questions, I do want to emphasize Pat's comments around the fourth quarter. We returned to growth in the fourth quarter. Year-over-year, we were down a bit. But as I mentioned, things were a bit choppy earlier in the year regarding tariffs and global uncertainty in the industrial market. So getting back to growth in the fourth quarter is great. We plan on building on that in 2026 meaningfully. I also want to point out that we continue to absorb some expenses related to some of the IT transformation, new business launches, et cetera. So I think we'll begin to see payback in 2026 and be able to build on that going forward as well. So some of the improvements, I think, are being masked by that, but we're very excited to demonstrate a big step forward in 2026. And with that, I'll turn it over and ask some questions or answer some questions.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] Our first questions come from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jacob Moore
AnalystsThis is Jacob Moore on for Steve Barger today. I want to start with the guide, specifically the 5% to 7% sales growth. I see at least one mention of pricing in the slide. So can we just begin with your assumptions for price versus volume in that overall sales number? And then maybe you could finish with a by segment view of growth contributions for the year.
Patrick Fogarty
ExecutivesSure. This is Pat. The price increases that are included in our 2026 sales guidance is primarily in our Assembly Components group. And I would say it's a small part of the increase that we're seeing in revenues. We will see an increase in revenues relating to tariffs and the recovery of such tariffs with our customer base in our Supply Technologies segment. But I would say the majority, call it, 75% of our growth in 2026 will be a result of production volume increases from our customers. And then relative to improvements in gross margin by business, I'm going to refrain from giving any type of guidance on segment profitability in 2026 other than we expect improved flow-through in each of the business segments based on the increase in revenue that we're guiding to. So as we have experienced in 2025 and really for the last 1.5 years, our operating margins in both Assembly Components and Engineered Products Group are below our expectations. And we expect improvement in each of those segments in 2026.
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesJacob, I want to add to that, while I completely agree with Pat's comments, there are tactical pricing discussions going on across the business. As you can see, a lot of our backlogs are very strong. So we are quoting new business in multiple areas, and we're also making sure that we dissect our customer base and our current pricing models and standards coming into the new year. So every one of our business continues to be evaluated. And I can think of a dozen different pricing conversations going on right now, much more tactical, I think, than we would have seen in the past. So I think to Pat's point, the growth leans heavily towards new business or expanded current relationships. That doesn't mean 1% or 2% and our model is $25 million or $30 million in price increases. So -- and those are happening consistently across the board on a more tactical basis.
Jacob Moore
AnalystsUnderstood. That's really helpful. And I kind of wanted to dig into sales growth by segment as well, if you could comment on that.
Patrick Fogarty
ExecutivesYes. Once again, we will not comment on individual business segments. But I would say, as I mentioned in my comments, that our guidance on increased revenues are across the board. And so they vary across the board. Engineered Products will be at record sales levels in 2026. We see continued growth in assembly components based on new business that we've already launched. That new business will be at full production levels in 2026. And then in Supply Technologies, we have seen nice growth in the AI data center space, where our business is focused on the switchgear manufacturers and those customers that provide digital infrastructure around data centers, we're seeing nice growth in that business. For example, 2 years ago, we had very little revenue in that space. Today, our revenues are approaching $150 million annually with that end market. So we expect that to continue. into 2026 and beyond.
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesJacob, I think that to Pat's point, we'll see it across the board, AI and defense and power management really affecting Engineered Products and Supply Technologies. But we've talked consistently about the large -- the $40 million in new business that we've launched inside of Assembly Components. So without commenting specifically, I think it should be relatively broad-based. I think it also depends -- we've been -- had significant backlogs in Engineered Products. As we can clear those backlogs, that should be a tailwind as well.
Jacob Moore
AnalystsThat's really good color. I appreciate it. And if I could just follow up with the last one here on free cash flow. I know you're guiding to $20 million to $30 million. The last couple of years have been in the low single-digit millions. I know that you've been investing and you highlighted that, but it sounds like you still have a lot to juggle this year, too. So I want to ask what makes you confident that you've turned the corner, that the asset base can start to consistently produce cash flows? And what's your confidence level in that guidance?
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesYes. Great question. Pat can give you a better answer. But I do want to comment, I talked earlier about volatility in the -- going back a couple of years in the supply chain. Then I've talked, I think, about volatility in demand last year related to tariffs and global uncertainty. These last couple of years have been really difficult to manage supply chain issues, demand issues. It has been not the best environment to predict the business needs of your customers and to manage your suppliers. So we have been heavy consistently, and I think we've been transparent on that on working capital. I think as we come into 2026, whether it's some of the productivity tools we've talked about or whether it's just a little better visibility, I commented, I think, back in the second quarter call of last year that the -- while the sales were relatively stable year-over-year for the business, and let's use Supply Technologies as a kind of a last mile person that's a good proxy for the economy. There was total turmoil under the hood in terms of end markets. And aerospace and defense and AI was holding it up. Other key markets, most of the other key markets were down. So that was a very difficult environment. We predict something slightly more better visibility, and we are more prepared, I think, to handle it. So I think we can, I think, manage the business a little better on the cash side because of that. And again, we're also going to begin to benefit from some of these data management tools as well. But it was a tough year last year to manage these things on top of investing heavily in the business.
Patrick Fogarty
ExecutivesJacob, I would add that our free cash flow estimates are a result of obviously increased profits, but also lower working capital usage relative to every dollar of sales increase. So we still have some embedded working capital that we expect to harvest in 2026, but we expect that as a percentage of sales, our growth will not require us to invest in as much working capital as we have in the past.
Operator
OperatorOur next questions come from the line of Dave Storms with Stonegate.
David Storms
AnalystsI wanted to just go back to the guide here and maybe just get your thoughts on a general cadence for 2026. Should we expect that it will be maybe more typical seasonal year? Or is there anything that we should keep an eye out for that might throw that off?
Patrick Fogarty
ExecutivesI think we would expect a similar trend of sales in each business segment as we have in the past. So I don't see anything that would change the look of the individual quarters in 2026.
David Storms
AnalystsThat's perfect. And then I just wanted to kind of turn to the record backlog you have in EP. Is there anything more you can tell us about that, maybe unexpected burn rate? Are there any outsized contracts in there that are going to demand a lot of focus, margin profile? Anything like that would be very helpful.
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesI don't think there's anything unusual in there. I would say that our expertise in managing large power has provided more opportunity across the industrial segment, including things like data centers and AI. So the breadth of opportunity, I think, has grown in what 30 years ago was largely focused on the steel market and some related forming markets and hardening markets. So I would say that the breadth of managing large power has increased the opportunity, if you will. So I would say that, that is a tailwind in the business. We are a global leader on the technical side in managing large amounts of power and industrial spaces. So we have names on our customer list that we just wouldn't have seen 5 years ago and trying to do things that they weren't trying to do 5 years ago in battery steels and high-strength steels and so forth as well as new energy markets and things like that. So I do think that, that is a particular tailwind. I also think we've talked a lot about durable sales. We love our aftermarket business there, and we continue to reinforce and support what increasingly is a global effort to upgrade the industrial space. I know our team, including Pat here, was just in Europe. I mean, we are absolutely seeing green shoots and the reinvestment of the industrial space over there. Whether that means new facilities, which we don't see as much there, but certainly upgrading old facilities. So I think there's -- those markets are continuing to show life globally.
David Storms
AnalystsThat's great color. I really appreciate that. And then maybe one more for me. You've mentioned a couple of times now, and we've talked about this in the past, the automation and information systems improvements. Just would love to get an update on how you think those are going, how much more runway you have there? And just any further thoughts on that?
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesYes. No, that's a great question. And I -- we are attacking this piece and lowering our cost to serve on multiple fronts. And I say it a lot because it's really something we didn't focus on as much when we were growing so quickly over the years. First, I'll start with data management. Our efforts enterprise-wide in some cases, but more often by the different segments to invest in tools, I think, that begin with creating really clean data. A lot of people want to talk about AI, and we have some tremendous use cases going on, both on the sales funnel side and on the productivity side. But the reality of it is the journey begins with really getting clean, usable data. So I'm very excited at the strides we're taking to manage data better and give the tools to our -- I've talked a lot in the past about the strength of our management teams increasingly and giving them the tools to have the visibility to do everything from manage pricing and manage cash flow and working capital the way that we discussed, the opportunity is huge, particularly in a business like Supply Technologies. So I would say that. I think on the automation side, we continue to attack vigorously costs in the business that a few years ago weren't a big deal. So for example, warehouse space, warehouse space has been explosive in terms of costs. So opening up, as Pat mentioned, a new distribution center, a larger one allows us to have increased volumes and velocity, which allows us to invest in automation tools. Our flagship fastener manufacturing facility up in Toronto just invested several million dollars in finishing and packing equipment. This isn't just about doing things more cheaply. It's about doing more. So we are really looking at those kinds of investments, too, which aren't just robotics. They're about really stripping long-term costs out of the business model while growing. It's not about -- it is about productivity today, but it's really about getting the flow-through we talked about on the next $100 million in sales. And then lastly, you didn't mention it, but I will. When we talk about durable sales at higher margins, the vertical integration piece, particularly assembly components, -- we have a wonderful footprint in the U.S., Mexico, China, a global footprint and with very competitive positioned products with tremendous know-how. And I think it's critical that we continue to invest in the whole value stream. So as we look at improving material science and mixing capabilities in the rubber side, this is going to be really important to controlling our value stream.
Operator
OperatorOur next questions come from the line of Jim Dowling.
James Dowling
AnalystsTwo big picture questions. Pat mentioned the data center business running at a rate of $150 million. Could you expand that and give us your top 5 end markets across the entire company and what percentage of the total those top 5 might be, for example, steel, automotive, energy, et cetera?
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesWell, I'll take the least exciting one, Jim, because that will make -- will give Pat a second to think. You have known us when automotive, light truck and auto was north of 1/3 of the business. Today, I'll give Pat a chance to think, but that number probably hovers closer to about 20%, a little over 20%. So we have meaningfully culled the herd, so to speak, and gotten rid of some business that were too focused, I think, not just on the automotive space, too much on the North American automotive space, and I think also we're more capital intensive. So we have moved out of those businesses. Today, while that's still our biggest market, I want to be very clear that, that is a business that today not only is global in nature, we compete very successfully in Asia, for example, but also, I think, is a business that is extremely well diversified into products where we either have IP or we have business process or hard assets that put us in a very, very durable competitive position. So that is still our biggest market, but we really like where we are relative to the customer mix and the products that we're supplying. And while we don't see it in the margins yet, Jim, that is probably our biggest opportunity as we reposition that business and invest in that business for growth. Are we looking to be 50% or 40% or even 30% OE automotive? No. We like -- but we like where we are today, and we're going to continue to invest in those positions that we have great accretive margins.
Patrick Fogarty
ExecutivesYes. Jim, this is Pat. We're very fortunate to be a very diversified industrial company. Matt talked about the auto side of the business as that has decreased over the years. But within that block of business that we have, we are very diversified in terms of products, in terms of customers, in terms of the type of auto platform that we're providing our products to. Once you get beyond that, heavy-duty truck, semiconductor, power sports, steel, AI data center related, electrical, oil and gas are the top markets that would follow. And each of those individual markets do not represent more than 15% of our revenue base. So very -- no one end market is really dominating our revenues from that perspective. We're very diversified.
James Dowling
AnalystsKind of following that same line of question. In broad terms, what percentage of the business is going for OEM application versus aftermarket?
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesI would say that Supply Technologies is 95% OE. Obviously, we don't always track perfectly what the OE does with that because we do sell their service arms too. So tracking exactly what goes into their service areas versus their direct OE business can be difficult. But you can think of that as primarily an OE supplier. I think you can -- whether that be on the aerospace side, even the MRO side, I guess, is still, in some cases, going into assemblers. I think on the automotive side, again, the vast majority is OE. We do sell aftermarket, both direct aftermarket on the extruded hose side. We also sell obviously customers that use them as service parts. So -- but again, in both those cases, I would say that. I think on the equipment side and the forging business side, the equipment side is a bit more discrete in terms of they're building capacity or improving capacity or investing in productivity inside their plants. And then the aftermarket, which is $150 million part of that business is obviously all aftermarket. So -- and that's, again, one of the exciting parts of the business model. So while I would say, generally, the first 2 are largely OE based, I think that the Engineered Products business is a bit more complex and skews a little bit more towards not being entirely OE.
James Dowling
AnalystsOkay. One last for me. How did China do last year versus the previous year?
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesChina continues to be a good market for us. We have, I think, in a couple of different ways. First, I think that we have really reshaped -- I talk a lot about allocation of capital. While we have invested less money, we generate cash in China, and we generate cash exporting cash out of China, we have really focused on the businesses we have there that we can be successful in. So the products we sell there today, the service and the customer we service are often sometimes Chinese companies, but in most cases, global companies that are looking for global partnerships. So that gives us a little buffer from a competitive standpoint. It's a tough market to do business in. No mistake. But it is a growing market. It's a market in which we have accretive margins. And again, it's not one that we're necessarily pulling back from, albeit more often, we will see that as a jumping off point for Southeast Asia and other areas of even faster growth.
Operator
OperatorOur next questions come from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jacob Moore
AnalystsI just wanted to ask about the other part of your strategy that I haven't touched on yet, which is reshaping the portfolio. I know, Matt, you've talked about it a little bit already today, but I just wanted to ask you a little more directly. Is the current portfolio a set of assets that you want to be in longer term?
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesI think we're constantly tweaking and thinking about how we want to allocate capital. I think that we made the big moves over the last couple of years. And I think I've often said, I really like the businesses we're in. Each of them, I think, has real opportunity for growth and not only growth, but durable growth at accretive margins. Having said that, I think that we're not operating at the highest level across the board. So we will continue to fine-tune that as we go forward. But again, I think that from a revenue perspective, I think that the core businesses we have are fantastic.
Patrick Fogarty
ExecutivesJacob, we've discussed on prior calls, and I know Matt has highlighted that the allocation of capital strategy that we are allocating capital to our best products, our highest margin businesses. And to the extent that there's businesses that are not going to get fed the same amount of capital, those are the businesses that we'll make decisions on going forward. But right now, we are happy with where we're at.
Jacob Moore
AnalystsThat's really good color. And then just the last thing from us, and it's maybe one for each of you. Pat, what do you see as the variables or watch items that could drive upside or downside to your 2026 outlook? And for Matt, what programs, initiatives or trends are you most excited about this year and why?
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesThose are some big questions, Jacob. So let me just comment and say, I think that, as I mentioned earlier, we have a little better visibility this year going into the planning year. I would say only half joking that last year, pretty early in the year, the economic uncertainty and tariff -- the spectrum of tariffs changed our ability to plan the business and made some of our business plans almost irrelevant by the end of the first quarter. So I think this year, I think we -- a lot of the inventories that were really overbuilt in the or prebought or prebuilt at the beginning of last year, a lot of that inventory is cleared in some of our traditional markets. A lot of the transportation markets in particular, I'm not talking auto. Some of the markets have been at historic lows. For example, the train market and the track market. Some have been reasonably soft, the heavy-duty truck market. So there are a number of markets that we have some exposure to that have been sort of bumping along the bottom. So I think those businesses are in a position -- those markets are in a position to stabilize, perhaps a little upside. That should allow us to benefit from some of the faster-growing areas of the business that Pat has recognized. What do I think the risk is? It's less, I think, on the customer side this year and more on the macro side. It is somewhat surprising to me that the markets with the exception perhaps of the oil market have been as calm as they have been. And most of our key customers have been insulated from that. But it's hard to imagine that an inflationary cycle that burns through this global economy or here in the U.S. because of the war, ongoing war on 2 fronts wouldn't in some way impact our business. It may help on the aerospace and defense side, but it probably will create some challenges and some demand chaos as we saw last year. So those are a couple of things we're thinking about. And that's one of the reasons we continue to invest well above our historic norms is because we want to be in a better position to respond to that kind of activity.
Patrick Fogarty
ExecutivesJacob, this is Pat. To answer the question directed at me, obviously, higher production levels in the end markets that we serve will drive higher levels of profitability. But I think more importantly than that and because our guidance reflects where we think the end markets are going to be, better throughput of our products through our plants, whether that be in our capital equipment business, the more we can push through the plant, the more efficiently we push through new equipment orders through our plant will drive profitability. The same is true in our manufacturing plants in assembly components. The more efficient we become, the better absorption we're able to obtain and the higher levels of profitability will result. And so those are the 2 areas that we're focused on, and that will drive any upside that we might see in our '26 guidance.
Operator
OperatorWe have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll now hand the call back over to Matthew Crawford for any closing comments.
Matthew V. Crawford
ExecutivesGreat. Thank you, everyone. Appreciate your attention and your patience as we transform this business going forward. Thank you. Have a great day.
Operator
OperatorThank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.
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