Parsons Corporation (PSN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. Thanks so much for joining us. Really happy to have Parsons here to take us through the story. We have the company's CEO, Carey Smith. Carey, thanks for joining us today.

Thanks. Great to be back, Brian.

We're going to do fireside as you can probably tell from our setup here. Please have some questions loaded up, though, if there's any time at the end. Carey, why don't you just level set us to the story?

Certainly. So Parsons, we report in 2 segments. We're about 51% Federal Solutions, 49% Critical Infrastructure. We have 6 end markets, cyber and electronic warfare, where we're one of the leaders in offensive cyber and also the ability to converge cyber and electronic warfare in areas like non-kinetic effects. That business comprises 20% of the Parson's revenue. We're involved in space and missile defense. We have been the system engineering and integration contractor for the Missile Defense Agency for 4 decades. An important role as you start to look forward to Golden Dome and the money that's in the One Big Beautiful Bill. In the space domain, we provide ground systems. We've done over 170 different ground systems. We developed a unique solution where we can actually commercially operate large satellite vehicles, and we do assured position, navigation and timing. We're also involved in space domain awareness, and we just received the Space Icon award, in fact, this week for the work that we've done with Department of Commerce, and that comprises about 10% of our business. We're in Critical Infrastructure protection. That's about another 10% of the company's revenue, where we're involved in counter unmanned air systems, #1 provider for Department of State. We also do electronic security, physical security systems, #1 with state, #1 with the Army and #3 with the Air Force. Transportation, 28% of the company's revenue. We're involved in over 450 airports, 450 rail and transit projects. We've done over 17,000 miles of road and highway work across 6 continents. And we also do intelligent transportation systems. We're just awarded our first deployment in the Middle East for that area. We do about 15% of our business in water and environment, just acquired a company, which we can talk about later, Applied Sciences, which is involved in water remediation efforts in Florida. And then the final area would be urban development that comprised about 13% of the company's revenue. Most of the work that we do there is over in the Middle East, where we're involved in almost every major project going on today in Saudi Arabia. And I would also highlight, we are the #1 program manager in the world as ranked by engineering news record.

Well, that's quite a resume. Hopefully, everyone got that down. Carey, the biggest driver after 2 phenomenal years in '23 and '24, the biggest driver of the business this year was the confidential contract. It caused growth to turn negative after 20-plus percent growth in the prior 2 years. Can you remind the audience about the dollar and percentage headwinds that, that caused? Maybe talk about growth, excluding that contract, and really how you -- when that contract anniversaries and the company will be back to an as-reported organic number?

Yes. So first, I'd say we're really excited that for the last 3 years, excluding the confidential contract, we have been the industry organic growth leader in both of our segments. This year, anticipating 14% total growth at the company level, 9% organic growth. And then we've been very clear going into 2026 that we expect mid-single digits or better. So still extremely strong growth across the company as we've been demonstrating. The confidential contract was about $355 million this year, and that's starting to diminish. It's going to be about $20 million in the fourth quarter and then next year for the first 2 months, maybe $10 million to $15 million, and it will end in February.

Fantastic. Let's talk to -- let's pivot to another contract with the FAA. Recent contract award to a competitor of yours. You've historically had a sizable footprint at the FAA. Would you maybe discuss what happens with your existing contracts from a scope, duration and growth perspective? And are there new opportunities that you could be part of this air traffic control network in a different capacity than lead integrator? And if so, maybe how should we think about the timing and sizing of that?

Yes. So first, I'd say we've been happy to support the FAA as our customer for 5 decades. We've been on the technical support service contract for the last 24 years since 2001, and we've had excellent past performance on that contract. So when you look at the scope of the brand-new air traffic control system, there are, in essence, 2 parts. There's an integrator part, but there's also an implementer part. So if you think implementer, that's the role that we have played with the FAA in the past. We anticipate growth in that area as a result of this contract when that would be new work for us. So we're currently present in over 600 locations. We do things like site surveys, we do installation work. We do all the logistics. We do safety work. We're also involved in fire protection, but everything that goes on at all those facility sites. That will grow as all the brand new air traffic control systems. As an example, there will be the purchase of 619 radar systems. Those are going to have to get installed at each of the facilities. So we look forward to continuing to support the FAA in this critical mission and making sure that our national aerospace system remains safe for the traveling public.

How would we think about the contract flow through to Parsons? Does it require new vehicles or you have the existing ceiling or...

Yes. So we were awarded a $1.8 billion contract in April of 2023. That contract runs for 10 years until April of 2033. So they can just continue to award work on that existing vehicle.

Fantastic.

And I should comment, we have $1 billion ceiling remaining.

$1 billion left. Perfect. I want to talk about some of the other growth areas. You mentioned a lot as you were introducing the company to folks. Can you maybe help us what your top 4 growth areas for '26 are and what the timing of that looks like and how investors should be looking at the business going forward?

Yes. So I'd have to say the fastest-growing area would be our Critical Infrastructure business. And I'm going to say in totality, whether it's within the transportation sector, the water and environment sector or the urban development sector, both infrastructure North America as well as infrastructure Middle East are going to be double-digit growers this year. The Middle East, this is their fourth consecutive year of double-digit growth. And the nice thing for that organization is that we have long-term tailwinds. So within the U.S., the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act was passed in November 2021, but that's not going to hit its peak until 2028, then you have a 6-to-8-year tail after that. In parallel, you're going to have the new 5-year surface transportation reauthorization bill ramping up. And then if you look at the Middle East, we like the $1.2 trillion in the U.S. We're expecting $1.5 trillion in the Middle East. So particularly in Saudi as we prepare for the 2030 Expo and for the 2034 World Cup, we're going to see tremendous tailwinds. I would say the #2 priority would be probably border security. Border security received about $160 billion within the reconciliation bill. Parsons has been involved in border security programs all over the world. We do work with Defense Threat Reduction Agency in countries like Jordan. We've done Armenia. We've done Georgia. We've done Lebanon. We also do work with Department of Energy for the counter nuclear smuggling detection and deterrence. That's a $1 billion ceiling contract, and there's only 2 awardees. And we've also done work at land ports of entry and along the southern border. So that would probably be my second priority. Third, I would say, would be the Golden Dome for America, North -- [ infected ] North America, not just the U.S. but also with Canada, where we have a big presence. As the Missile Defense Agency system engineering and integration contractor, the big part of the Golden Dome effort initially is going to be on that integration piece. So we would anticipate use on our vehicle. Once again, we have a $1 billion ceiling remaining, and that vehicle runs until January 2029. We also are involved in non-kinetic effects, as I mentioned earlier, cyber and electronic warfare, how do you take out a missile without using missile to missile system. We're participating on some of the space-based interceptor activity, and we're looking at the battle management command and control growth as well. Fourth area would be cyber. The national security strategy was just released by the Department of War. And one of the biggest effects of -- challenges is still deterrence of China. That's really how we've purpose-built our federal company is how do we deter and outpace near-peer threats through cyber techniques, electronic warfare, signals intelligence and information operations and offensive cyber being a critical component of that. And it's hard, Brian, to be honest with you, to stop it for because I'm so excited about where the...

But don't let me stop here. You can go one deeper if you want. We have time for that.

I would say another growth area that we're excited about would be PFOS, PFAS, emerging contaminant elimination. We see that as a $40 billion addressable market for the company out of a total market size of $220 billion. We've developed a technology. It's called the Hot ISCO technology that actually destroys the PFAS molecule on spot. That has now been patented in Canada and in the United States, and we've had our first deployments of the technology. And then I would highlight rebuild of Syria, Ukraine and eventually Israel, Gaza, Syria being the first. Parsons is the company that did the chemical weapons elimination, Phase 1, there's going to be a Phase 2 of that, and then there will be the rebuild of Syria. And we anticipate that the Gulf consortium countries are going to be the ones that are going to pay for that rebuild. Obviously, with our extensive presence in the Middle East, that helps. And then 2 more quickly, but I would say Army munitions is another big area for us. We're currently present at Radford and Holston. Those are 2 of the 5 top Army ammunition munition plants within the United States. We've won 4 of 4 projects there, so expecting growth. And then the INDOPACOM region, the Pacific Deterrence Initiative was initially set up for $18 billion. Within the reconciliation bill, there's an additional $12 billion. We've been out in that region for over 3 decades. So we do both infrastructure work as well as cyber electronic warfare and signals intelligence. So again, exciting time for the company with a lot of growth vectors.

If I could just maybe pull on just one of the common threads here. When I was in D.C. a few weeks ago, a lot about border security, encounter UAS in that whole construct. And then just last week, the Shield contract was awarded for Golden Dome. Can you maybe help us understand how that matriculates through to contract awards and activity and how people should think about the timing for some of these things?

Yes. I would say on Golden Dome first, again, I think there's going to be more systems procurement. So if you think about that, Patriots, ground-based interceptors and a lot of integration going on. And then there's going to be an immediate focus sort of on local area defense. I would equate the local area defense to our Air Base Air Defense program that we have established in Europe, which is how we're protecting Air Force bases. It's kind of similar to how you might come in and protect the city from an architecture perspective. Shield was very broad. It has $150 billion ceiling over 1,000 awards. It was more kind of a broad-based capabilities, but I believe what's going to happen immediately is using existing contracts and getting existing work out.

Makes a lot of sense. I want to zoom into the President with a near-term question here. On the last call, you talked about some disruption from the government shutdown and -- but at the same time, you still guided an acceleration in your fourth quarter here coming up. Can you walk us through the components that are driving the sequential acceleration in your Federal Services segment? And maybe if the length of the shutdown is causing that recovery to be a bit more elongated?

Yes. So first, again, 51% of our company doesn't fall under the federal government. So we're only talking about the 49% that it does. But I would say the growth that we were anticipating is sort of in 3 areas. The first one is the Air Base Air Defense contract that I just mentioned, we've been awarded some new task orders on that vehicle. So we're seeing growth there. Our Federal Aviation Administration contract, TSC 5 without the brand new air traffic control system was also accelerating throughout the fourth quarter. And then the last one is we were awaiting an award, which we received a success memo on. This one is kind of exciting because there were 100 offers on another transaction agreement. It was necked down to 3 prototypes. And we were awarded the Joint Cyber Hunt kit program. We're awaiting the LRIP contract, but that's a $500 million over 3-year product sales. So it's higher margins, and it's accretive. So those are the critical elements within federal. As far as shutdown, we are glad it's over. And hopefully, we don't have another one as we go into January 30. We need to get the last 9 bills passed. But I would say people are coming back to the office. It is a little bit slow still in terms of contracting actions, and we're very focused on collecting our cash.

Right. We typically see cash slowdown at this time of year for those situations. Let's maybe zoom now, take the counterbalance of that question and zoom out longer-term view. Remind the group of really what your growth algorithm is organic versus inorganic, how much margin leverage you can realize as you scale up bigger and really what the primary levers are to expand margins towards the top end of that peer group, which is 11% or 12% on an EBITDA basis.

Yes. So on the organic growth first, I would say, once again, we've been for 3 years consecutively the industry leader in organic growth in both of our segments, excluding the confidential contract. We have been very consistent as we go into 2026, we're going to grow mid-single digits or better. That doesn't include any big game changer opportunities that we might be awarded. That is strictly core business, delivering, executing as we have consistently done. Inorganically, we've bought 16 companies since 2017. This year, we acquired 3 companies: TRS Group in the first quarter that's focused on PFOS, PFAS and thermal remediation. We acquired Chesapeake Technology International, enhanced our cyber electronic warfare, signal intelligence, but most importantly, has a great presence in the INDOPACOM region, also a great presence with Special Operations Command, then most recently Applied Sciences Consulting. And they're involved in water remediation efforts and heavy presence within Florida on resiliency. We expect to continue to do more M&A, although, I will say with the stock dislocation, we are going to focus on share repurchases right now as well. But we have an active M&A pipeline and expect to be able to drive more organic growth. You can see us doing between 2 to 4 acquisitions in any given year. Margins. On margins, I would say our federal margins are kind of about where we would expect them to be based on a 60-40 split, which is cost reimbursable to fixed price T&M mix within there. Where we will get margin growth on the federal side of the house is going to be through additional product sales, such as the earlier one that I mentioned on Joint Cyber Hunt Kit or the work that we're doing on assured position, navigation and timing through our Globalstar partnership that we have. We would also get a lift through M&A because when we buy companies, we're buying companies that have greater than 10% EBITDA margin and also through operating leverage where we've been able to control our costs as our revenues increase. Similarly, I'd say, on the Critical Infrastructure side of the house, but I would add on the infrastructure side of the house, demand is so much greater than supply. So as you start to look at some of our new programs coming in, we have been able to get margin lift. We have lifted our margins overall as a company, 50 basis points last year, an additional 50 basis points this year. And really happy with the Critical Infrastructure business, which has delivered over 10% margins for 3 consecutive quarters through outstanding performance execution.

You've done a really nice job on that Critical Infrastructure piece. Maybe let's pivot to that business a little bit, not only the margin execution, but the growth rate has been mid-teens, 20 consecutive book-to-bills greater than 1. Maybe talk about the durability of this cycle. It sounds like it's a very elongated cycle with years in front of it still. And then maybe where you're seeing the biggest pockets of activity, whether it's transportation, water. And then maybe give us a regional flavor for where things are coming, either Middle East or North America or how you're looking at it?

Yes. So I'd say, first at the company level, we're really proud of the fact that we've been greater than 1.0 trailing 12-month book-to-bill since we IPO-ed back in May of 2019. And as you point out, 20 consecutive quarters greater than [ 1.0 ] within Critical Infrastructure. Demand is really across the board. Additional -- as we saw a shift within the United States back to what I'm going to call hard infrastructure away from areas like climate change, electrification, broadband where Parsons does not play, back to a refocus on roads and highways, airports, bridges, those are the areas that we're involved in, rail and transit. So that kind of plays to our strength, and that's where the money has been going. In the Middle East, we're going to see a lot of long tailwinds. The important thing right now is to get ready for the 2030 Expo in Saudi, the 2034 World Cup that's going to occur. We've been heavily focused on programs that are around Riyadh because they're going to be on the world stage, and those programs have to get done first. So as any reprioritization were to occur in Saudi, you're still going to deliver on those programs. So if you think about Diriyah Gates, restoration of Saudi's history; King Salman Park, 5x the size of Central Park; Qiddiya, the world's largest entertainment city. We were just awarded King Salman International Airport, where we're going to have 108 million passengers by 2030, same size as Atlanta, the world's busiest airport, 150 million passengers by 2050. We'll be the world's largest airport. We did the Metro project, which is still underway, quite a success done in a very short period of time. We were just awarded the traffic management that's around Riyadh. So it's our first deployment of our advanced traffic management system within the Middle East, quite exciting. So I would say that's the significant growth we're seeing there, but not to leave out the UAE and Qatar because we're growing double digits within all 3 countries. In the UAE, we're seeing a lot of development. There are a lot of people moving there. So we're actually building manmade islands for people to live on and designing a lot of new mixed-use development areas. And then within Qatar, we've been very busy, not just in Doha, but also in the city of Lusail, which is going to be focusing more on tourism and entertainment. We've diversified within the Middle East, too. So traditionally, we've done transportation projects in urban development. We were awarded a project with the Ministry of Defense. It's a critical infrastructure project within Saudi. We also were awarded a border security project within Saudi Arabia, again, strengthening our border security credentials. And then finally, we're awarded a project in tourism and hospitality to convert some palaces to hotels.

A lot going on in the Middle East, definitely. Let's maybe -- I think you teased it a little bit, but let's talk about capital allocation. I think your leverage is about 1.4x. You've done kind of a few deals each year, 2 to 4. So they've been reasonably sized. How are we thinking about -- you mentioned the stock dislocation. How are we looking at maybe 2 things, one, what the pipeline looks like from an M&A perspective? Is there a leaning towards one segment or the other where you would do more deals? And then third, how are you now balancing a potential stock buyback going forward?

Yes. So I'll take the second part first. We are authorized by the Board for $250 million. As of the end of the third quarter, we had $185 million remaining in share repurchase. We do plan to be more active as we go into the fourth quarter given the stock relocation. On the second question, we have an excellent pipeline. I was hoping to close 4 deals this year, but stay tuned. And I would say we've got opportunities on both the Federal and the Critical Infrastructure side of the house. 4 of our last 6 deals were on the Critical Infrastructure side of the house, but I still like a lot of the federal deals because they're high technology, and we can take that technology and we can apply it across the business. So you can expect to see us likely do a deal that is still in kind of that cyber, EW, signals intelligence area that expands our presence with the intelligence community.

Great areas to be in. Carey, this is your moment to shine here, the drop the mic moment. So go ahead, no follow-up for me, talk directly to investors here and on the Internet and tell them why they should consider Parsons as an investment.

But I'll miss the follow-up. So I would say why you should consider Parsons as an investment. Again, we have been the leading industry organic growth driver for the last 3 years, excluding the confidential contract. That's in both segments. We have strong tailwinds across the business. I highlighted all of our growth areas within North America and the federal side with the One Big Beautiful Reconciliation Bill, where we are very much aligned to all the elements that got funded there, whether it's border security, Golden Dome for America, INDOPACOM, army munitions, et cetera. Within the infrastructure side of the house in North America, very well aligned to the hard infrastructure, where the money is going to be spent under the IIJA as well as the next 5-year surface transportation reauthorization bill. Within the Middle East, I just talked about it, but very exciting times there that's going to go on for decades of growth. I'm really proud of our presence that we've had over there for 65 years, 50-year partnership with our Saudi Arabia partner. Margin expansion, we've been consistent, 50 basis points last year, 50 basis points this year, another 10 to 20 anticipated as we go into next year. Book-to-bill, the company over 1.0 trailing 12 month since IPO, Critical Infrastructure greater than 1.0, 20 consecutive quarters. Biggest pipeline we've ever had in the company, $58 billion. We've moved up the value chain just as we said, as a solutions integrator. We're differentiating with software. We're in a position now that we can bid prime and win larger projects. Then I'd highlight our consistent cash flow over the last couple of years, 115% to 120%. So very consistent and great capital deployment. I think M&A has really helped us move up that value chain and definitely transformed our company. So exciting time at Parsons.

It sounds great. Well said, Carey, thank you so much for joining us today. And thanks, everyone, out there for your interest. We do have time for a question or 2, if anyone has one in the audience. Yes, please.

Can I just ask about -- you mentioned [indiscernible]

Sure. So within PFOS, PFAS, we've had a research laboratory in Syracuse, New York for 3 decades that we've been focused on improving, I'm going to say, quality of water, quality of soil. We hold several patents within the PFOS, PFAS area. The most important one is the Hot ISCO technology, which we have deployed. It basically breaks the PFAS molecule on site without requiring incineration. We see this as a $40 billion addressable market for Parsons out of a total $220 billion market. On the Critical Infrastructure side of the house, we will sell to airports, we'll sell to industrial customers and also water customers. And then on the federal side of the house, we'll sell to the Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of Defense. On both sides of the house, we already have contracts in place, master service agreements or indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity vehicles. We're involved in every aspect of the life cycle. So we do investigations. We've done over 2,000 investigations and over 7,000 point-of-use investigations. Then we can come in and we can do the remediation and treatment and also the follow-on monitoring and support. The federal MCL levels have not been changed. They're still at a consistent level. What has happened is the time line for implementation from the federal government has been stretched. We always felt that it was going to be elongated. So we always indicated 2032 is our expectation for a peak in that market. In addition to the federal, you also have 34 states that have their own regulations. So we see this as an exciting area for the company. Thank you.

Great. Carey, thanks so much.

Thanks, Brian.