Pentair plc (PNR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thanks, everyone, for being here. It's my pleasure to have up next, Pentair. So we've got Bob Fishman, that many of you know, who'll be retiring soon. Nick Brazis, the new CFO. So congratulations; look forward to working with you. And De'Mon Wiggins from the Flow business. So we'll have a good discussion today. I don't know if there's any quick remarks you'd like to make upfront?

Absolutely. So first of all, thank you for the invite. And thank you for your support, Julian, over the years. I have until March 1, it was announced on the Q3 earnings call that I'm retiring. Nick will be an exceptional CFO. We've been working very closely together over the last couple of years. And De'Mon has taken on a bigger piece of the business, he is now running both the Flow business and Water Solutions. Thank you, Julian.

Thanks very much. So maybe we'll start, perhaps, De'Mon, help us understand kind of impressions of kind of running both businesses. How do you see the demand outlook at present and kind of synergies across the 2?

Yes. First and foremost, really excited about running both segments. We've had a really strong run in Flow, both from a growth and also profit expansion. And as far as Water Solutions, excited about that in 2 phases. But I think about the water quality coming together, we have a residential pump business, that we're bringing the residential filtration business together. And that gives us another opportunity to align with the homeowner in how we treat their water and enhance the water quality inside the home. And that's something that our channel has been asking for. So that's a nice opportunity for, not only growth, but we also have some synergy opportunities inside of that business. As far as our Commercial Water Solutions, which is your Everpure and your Manitowoc businesses, strong brands, and we are excited about the future in that business. And Nick will talk about guide itself. But the businesses have strong opportunity, not only just in the restaurants, but also opportunities in convenience stores where those are becoming much more destination locations of travelers and because they offer so much more. And that's an opportunity for us to gain share. And so truly excited about both sides of the business.

Great. And on the demand side, what are we seeing on the different verticals kind of within commercial and then resi at those 2 segments?

Yes. So I'll start and then Nick can give some pieces. But from a demand standpoint, we think about commercial, still seeing commercial buildings being strong. We're able to play, as you think about our pumps, fire suppression, water movement too in the commercial building. That's becoming consistent. And we have the ability to navigate different spaces, commercial buildings and educational, health care, and even in data centers, we're seeing some pickup there. So some opportunities there. Industrial continues to be strong because we've moved from just being project-oriented to more component solutions, recurring revenue. So less dependent on CapEx and more OpEx needs. And then on the resi side, I would say, a little bit more the market itself flat. But what I've been seeing is that we have opportunities with the work we've done in 80/20, that has moved us towards a pivot to growth and opportunities to gain share in those spaces. So nice outlook. Nick?

We guided for 2026 expecting really no residential recovery. That doesn't mean that there won't be one, but we've guided that there wouldn't be one in our guide. And so we think about the Pool business for 2026 looking a lot like the full year 2025, relatively flat volumes but with a couple points of price, 2 to 3 points of price for the year in the Pool business. And we think about our Water Solutions business being up about low single digits, with some healthy margin expansion, in part due to the transformation tools that we've, I think, demonstrated a real strong ability to execute with across sourcing, operational excellence, organizational excellence. And bringing the residential water and residential flow businesses together, we can create a lot of margin opportunity. And then our Flow business has been doing fantastic, and we guided high single digits for the year, growth, with margin expansion about in line with the company, so about 100 basis points for the year. We're excited about each of those 3 businesses. And our guide for '26, Julian, is really a balanced guide across our move, improve and enjoy segments, where each segment is contributing approximately equally to the incremental EBITDA and income dollars that we expect to deliver in 2026. So we're excited about the balanced water portfolio that we have. We're excited about continuing to deploy those transformation tools in the businesses that really have runway on margin expansion, and continuing to use transformation tools for that incremental margin across the portfolio.

And you mentioned price there, 2 or 3 points, I think, dialed in, in Pool. I think one thing that's come up in a lot of investor conversations kind of since the earnings was that price was really high, 8 points I think in the fourth quarter for Pool. And then the guide seems to embed almost no price realization exiting 2026. So I guess kind of why is that? Is it simply about matching price to offset costs through the year? Is anything changing in terms of competition, or price fatigue at the customer level? How should we look at that price in Pool?

Yes, our price carries over nicely from '25 into '26. And I think our products, the quality, the service that we deliver and our sticky relationships with our dealers, price has remained sticky across our channels to market. We guided with price effectively offsetting inflation in the year 2026, but that price carries over nicely from '25 into '26.

Got it. And so there's nothing changing on the competitive landscape, if at all. I think we get some reports around more China-sourced products at 1 or 2 of the larger distributors in the U.S. Is that something genuinely new or something to be alarmed about, or it looks pretty stable, the competition overall?

Yes, Julian, thanks for asking that. The pool market is always changing, but these low-cost entrants have come and gone for a long time. This isn't a new phenomenon where all of a sudden there's people bringing lower-cost products into the Pool business. And what our team has been able to do by driving high-quality, innovative, value-expanding products and systems into the pool industry, I mean we've been doing that for a very long time. And we predominantly compete in the more luxury pool market. And only about 50%, it's a little less than 50%, of the North America pools have any automation feature. And so as pool owners continue to take on automation capabilities that we offer, that just drives an even stickier solution for their whole entire pool pad. When you've got on your phone the ability to see your heater, your lights, your pump, your filters, and you can control that on your way home from the office and have everything ready, or you've got predictive analytics where you know that you've got to replace your filter in a couple of weeks and it's not going to disrupt the pool party that you have, I mean people love that automation capability. So we're excited about that. We're continuing to innovate, particularly in that automation and connected systems space. And the last thing I'll mention is that our dealers, and Pentair, we have great relationships. Our quality, our service -- our dealers want to interact with their customer and have it go right. And our products do that.

Got it. So as you think about market share, being kind of pretty stable, no major shifts.

Yes, that's right, Julian.

Great. And then if we think about kind of where are we in that pool volume cycle, it seems like sort of volumes the last 6 years or so, there's very little growth kind of decade to date. It seems like we're well below trend. How should we think about the catch-up back towards trend there?

Sure. I'll make a couple of comments. The first, Julian, is that, again, for our guidance '26, we assume effectively flat volumes for the whole year. So we don't assume a residential recovery. Again, that doesn't mean it won't happen; we just haven't built it into our guide. Additionally, as you recall, during the COVID years, there's a large amount of pools that were installed. And typically, we see a 5 to 7-year kind of break-fix cycle for some of the pad equipment. And we haven't built that kind of break-fix incremental into our guide either. And about 70% of our pool sales are related to that repair-replace cycle. And so both the North America recovery, both the incremental repair-replace cycles aren't built into our guide. Yes, I'll just call out also that De'Mon did run Pool for a while. So he's got some great insights into how we work with our dealers. Maybe if you want to make a comment on that, De'Mon.

Yes. And I think it's important as we work with our dealers, training is key. And we spend a lot of time working with them so that they have the best experience that they provide to the homeowner. And where we believe that continues to play out as we move forward, and as you know, from the pandemic, there was significant demand pull-through, that will get to a point where that starts to repeat and need to be changed out. And we have confidence that those dealers that we worked with at that initial phase of putting those pools in will replace that with Pentair equipment. So that's how we look at it, and ensure that training, that seamless support that we give enhances their desire to put our product back on the pads that they first serviced, and also ensuring that the experience that the homeowner receives is elevated because of that.

Great. And then one question we've had, and this is sort of the last very short term one I'll ask, I think, is around, I think the guidance for the first quarter, because you give very detailed quarterly guidance as a corporation, you've got the Pool volume down mid-single digit, but it exited last year pretty healthy. So maybe help us understand why the Pool volumes, that shouldn't roll over?

Yes. We saw, as we mentioned on our earnings call, we saw sell-in a little higher than sell-out in Q4. And so our guide for the quarter takes that into account. So you see the decremental volume offsetting that sell-in/sell-out dynamic in Q4 writing itself after Q1. And then you see our Q2, Q3, Q4 volumes increase. And so that balance of incremental volume Q2 through 4, again, our big season is Q2, Q3, those incremental volumes then offsetting the decremental in Q1, balancing that sell-in, sell-out, and then we have approximately flat volume in aggregate for the year. Thanks for asking that, Julian.

Okay. Perfect. And when we think about the transformation program, I mean, it's been extremely successful. The company is on track to do that, 26% plus margin, and we'll get updated targets in just a couple of weeks now. But when we think about, De'Mon, your businesses you're operating now, I think those 2 will have the lion's share of further margin expansion from here versus the Pool division. So maybe how are you thinking about the entitlement on incremental margins for the 2 segments? How much left is there on productivity to keep pushing the margins up there?

Yes. First and foremost, I want to say there is still room to go in transformation. I want to put that out there right up front. And each business is in its unique journey as to where they capture more margin expansion. As I think about our water quality business, about 25% of our factory footprint is inside of that business. And we have opportunities to look at those as they come together and see where those transformational activities can play out. We've seen a really good run in Flow, specifically in our industrial business, industrial solutions business, where margins and income dollars have really improved. But that still has a significant factory footprint, operational opportunities, that we can continue to go after in not only '26 but and beyond. So those businesses, while we're starting to pivot to growth, still have that opportunity to improve the margin profile of those businesses. So that's the area that we will focus the most on, as we see areas like our Commercial Water Solutions business be ready and primed for growth because the margin profile is really strong. So that's how we're looking at it today.

And when we're thinking about that algorithm of kind of top line revenue growth versus kind of margin expansion, I think some investors are sort of curious, there'll be a big shift across Pentair to top line growth kind of maximization versus margin expansion, which has been the sort of the last 4 years' push. Kind of how would you assess the balance between those 2 things? And I guess to your point, De'Mon, just now, if you get good growth in the higher-margin businesses, there's no reason you shouldn't get high-margin expansion with the top line growth. So maybe flesh out how we should think about that interplay in your segments and also Pool perhaps.

I'm going to start with my segment, and I'll say it this way. Each -- I want to talk about 80/20 from a standpoint of 80/20 now being a growth driver in our business, because what has happened is, as we've taken the -- and exited the Quad 4, whether that's products and customers, that's allowed us to focus on our top customers. And what that is achieving is moving from tactical conversations to strategic conversations around growth. And we're seeing that play out in the industrial business and we see that playing out in our commercial business as we know the areas that we want to expand into. And then we see that opportunity as we take that same type of playbook into Water Solutions, specifically water quality management and our CWS business, as an opportunity for pivoting that to growth and driving the growth that we want. So it's a balance. And we're now at a place where many of the businesses have started to earn the right to grow because the profile is consistent in the margin that they're delivering. And now that that consistency is there, we are giving that authority to grow because that accountability goes down to the general managers into driving those specific businesses.

Yes. I would just add, Julian, that March 4, you mentioned the upcoming, our Investor Day, we're excited to share our growth algorithm with you guys and how we're thinking about the next several years. And we'll share that during Investor Day. But just a bit of a teaser, when we look across the portfolio, as De'Mon mentioned, there are pieces of the portfolio that, as they grow, that operating leverage -- for Pool, for example, we've shared that incremental volumes dropped through at north of 40%. Our commercial water business, commercial flow business, we have businesses that are dropping through well north of 30%. And so those businesses are going to be focused on growth. We've got some exciting innovations and NPI to share at our Investor Day. And then there are other parts of the portfolio that are really primed for continued deployment of our transformation tools: sourcing, operational excellence, organizational excellence, that price-for-value in the market. So we'll give you a breakdown of which of the 12 revenue streams under our segments we're really focused on growing through sales and marketing, R&D deployment, new product introductions, and show you some of those innovations, and which parts of the portfolio are going to continue to expand incrementally on the margin side, both dollars and percentages, but really incremental margin expansion across the portfolio, just different levers to pull to get there.

That's helpful. And when you look across or think about those 12 revenue streams, is there a sense that, having reviewed all of them, that there's much need to kind of catch up investment? I think people sometimes worry, "Okay, if you had a multiyear margin story, does the pendulum kind of swing back again to top up investment?" Or you think not necessarily, there's no obvious areas of...

No. I think the team has done a phenomenal job. Our transformation results have all been net of investments. And so in those growth-focused businesses, I love the way De'Mon talks about it, is you got to earn the right to grow because you've got to have sustainable, great-margin businesses that, as we grow, we can keep it growing the right way at the right margins. But we've been investing in these businesses for the last several years, while we've been delivering the transformation savings, and specifically investing in service centers, sales and marketing, R&D. And that's already been reading out in the P&L, net of the transformation tools.

Got it. And when we look at, De'Mon, your businesses in Flow and Water, margin rates there are some way behind Pool, and there's various reasons why. So when you look at the Pool margins or you look at specific benchmarks of industry peers for Water and Flow, do you see a lot of room, like do you think Pentair is sort of under-earning on the margins versus specific industry peers for those businesses?

It's interesting. We do look at our peers, but to be honest with you, Julian, we focus on what we can control. And we still have more room, because what we continue to do is focus on the value that we offer to the customer and how efficiently we can do that inside of our operation to ensure that we can achieve that margin expansion. And what we've been able to do is, where necessary, pass price, and because of the value we provide, that price has been sticky. And as we move forward, we continue to ensure that through transformation, our 80/20 usage and our overall Pentair Business System, we continue to enhance that continual profitability inside the business. And that should be something that we can deliver continued margin expansion regardless of what is happening externally with peers and competitors right now.

Perfect. And I think the Flow business, the sort of medium-term growth target from the prior Investor Day was not super-high organic growth. Kind of when you look at it today, do you think there's room for it to grow faster now that a lot of the 80/20 work is well underway? What are the areas -- extremely fragmented market, myriad niches in the flow industry globally, maybe help us understand what are the specific areas you're focused on, on that to get organic growth dialed up.

We'll get into a lot more of that in detail at Investor Day, but I will shed a little light on: we understand the categories at a much deeper level. We've elevated the business teams and the PODs who run those businesses. They understand where there are opportunities for growth, the adjacencies that they can move in. And that's what is exciting me about the growth that we can achieve in specifically those businesses. That we've started to see readout even prior to the point that we're at now. And so the projections we probably gave a few years ago in low single digit has improved. I mean you've seen us in the performance that we've been giving in that Flow business, and very proud of what the team has been able to achieve.

And we've touched on price at the beginning as a sort of cost offset item. But if you think about it more strategically, with the Quad 4 having gone, does that mean the price realization potential is just higher for Pentair now because you're focusing on higher-value customers, so there's more ability to get higher price consistently almost regardless of inflation?

I would say the value we give is going to be key, because those conversations, I'd say, become much more strategic. We're talking about innovative solutions that, because of the value, that you're going to get more price. So the pricing power comes from what solutions that you're offering and the needs that you're meeting, and that's going to be key. Because those discussions have changed from being a tactical provider of product to a solutions provider of the needs that our customers have.

Yes, I would just add, Julian, that our pricing tools, that value-based pricing toolkit, is part of our Pentair Business System. And it's something that is -- all of our businesses are using, to understand the customer, to understand the value that they're delivering to that customer and to price appropriately based on that value proposition. Certainly, we want to cover off any inflation, tariffs, and we've done so over the last several years. But we're really thinking about and providing tools to the businesses of how to drive value-based pricing.

Got it. And when we wrap together kind of all the efforts on productivity that you've been discussing, is that kind of $70 million plus tailwind that you're seeing annually, is that something sort of repeatable for the balance of the decade, do you think?

We'll give you more guidance on our transformation objectives for the next 3 years on -- at our Investor Day. But we don't see this transformation journey as stopping in 2026 by any means. And we think we've got a great runway. And a lot of funnel work that's been done, that will be done, revisiting Wave 1 and Wave 2 of our sourcing activities that read out really nicely over the last few years, De'Mon talked about some of the operational opportunities within that water quality management business. So we'll give you more of an aggregate view on the next several years of transformation opportunity at Investor Day. But we don't see that halting after '26.

And lastly, kind of capital deployment. Could we see more of an M&A kind of push? Alongside the effort for higher organic growth, should we expect or inorganic revenue contribution as well now?

Yes. The last 3 years, we -- about 3 years ago or so, we acquired Manitowoc. We levered up to about 2.5x. We've been delevering since that. We ended '25 at about 1.4x levered. And during that time, we acquired Gulfstream, a really nice bolt-on with great heat pump technology that's a complement and a capability to our Pool business. We acquired Hydra-Stop late last year, a great insertion valve product that complements our commercial and infrastructure flow business really well. And so I bring up the last few years to just demonstrate I think we've done a really good job of having disciplined capital allocation strategy. Going forward, you can expect a similar view, to have a disciplined capital allocation strategy balanced between share buybacks, M&A, and importantly, investing in our businesses, whether it be CapEx in some of our factories -- we're still going to be CapEx light. We have been, that's going to continue. But we'll do bolt-on M&A when it is a complement to our portfolio and going to drive synergies and incremental EPS over the long haul. I'll just add, Julian, too, we have been and will continue to be over the next several years, incentivized as an executive team by not just earnings growth, but by our return on invested capital targets. And that's something we look at whenever we consider any capital deployment, is ROIC, and we're incentivized as an executive team to drive that.

Fantastic. Well, I think we'll switch quickly now to the audience response questions, please. So the first one is, you currently own shares in Pentair? So slightly above average no. So a lot of opportunity there. The second question is around, general bias or attitude to Pentair right now? So fairly neutral. Third question is around, through-cycle EPS growth for Pentair versus the kind of multi-industry average? So generally in line with the average. Next question is on capital deployment. What should the uses of excess cash be? So mostly buyback weighted. Penultimate question is on valuation. What's the appropriate kind of year 1 P/E multiple for Pentair? It's around kind of high teens. Looks to be the right level. And then the last question is around, what's the main factor holding back that valuation multiple today? So all about core growth. So with that, thanks very much. It's been a great pleasure to have Nick, De'Mon and Bob. And Bob, you've been coming to this conference for a number of years. So I really appreciate your partnership on this. And I'm sure everyone in this room wishes you well in your retirement, so...

Thanks very much. Thank you.