Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 17, 2020

New York Stock Exchange US Health Care conference_presentation 33 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

David Lewis

analyst
#1

Welcome to the Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference 2020 on our fourth day. And as I said in our earlier sessions this morning, we're sort of transitioning from a large-cap land into emerging growth land, even though some of these companies have become very large companies. And it's my pleasure to have with us here as we deal with not only emerging growth company and a very emerging growth market, Penumbra and their CEO and Founder, Adam Elsesser, who's been kind enough to be with us here for several years. And like every year, at the Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, Adam, I feel like there's always something very interesting to talk about and this year is no different.

David Lewis

analyst
#2

But before we get to some of your emerging pipeline catalysts and some dynamics of the business, I just want to talk and start the same way as I've started with other CEOs at the conference the last 3 or 4 days, which is on recovery. And -- the stroke market has been dramatically more durable than a lot of other medical device markets. Adam, I just want to maybe just talk about what you've seen -- we saw your numbers, obviously, in the second quarter, but what you see as it relates to recovery in your Peripheral and Neurovascular businesses here, as you kind of exited the summer?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#3

Yes. Thanks, David. And again, thanks for inviting us to the conference this year again. So what we said on our second quarter call is that we had seen in the back half of the quarter a return to a little less than 90% and commented that June was even a little better than that. In an answer to a question, I commented that July -- that positive trend had continued into July. And I can tell you that, that trend in this quarter is continuing as well. It's a little bit mixed in that the business is divided up between sort of emergent cases, stroke being one of them, but of course, a number of the peripheral thrombectomy cases are emergent, too, and what we'll call sort of urgent-elective cases. So obviously, emergent cases don't come back but urgent elective kind of do. And so there's a little bit different -- but the trends have totally seen a positive -- the trends are positive. We've seen that continue into this quarter.

David Lewis

analyst
#4

Okay. It's interesting. I don't have a model, so I get to comment on people's models...

Adam Elsesser

executive
#5

Yes.

David Lewis

analyst
#6

Which is an enviable position for this call. But it's funny. I look at numbers for the third and fourth quarter for some of your analysts, and they're kind of operating in kind of 75% of normal for the third quarter, 87% of normal for the fourth quarter. And I'll be honest, given you're a more durable business into COVID, I think based on our diligence you're recovering faster, those numbers look a little conservative. Is there any reason to believe that you wouldn't recover as quickly, if not a little faster than some of your other medical device peers?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#7

It's always hard to sort of compare us to other companies because I don't know exactly which company we're comparing when I say that. But I do know that, look, our business is solid. Obviously, the big unknown that we talked about on our earnings call is what happens with COVID. So far, we haven't seen anything change in the way hospitals are functioning since we started coming out of this. But we don't know as we look into the winter and flu season. That's not anything to be alarmed about, that's not some warning we haven't seen it yet come. But that being said, yes, you're accurate. The business is very much on a positive trend.

David Lewis

analyst
#8

Okay. It sounds like you would expect to be back to some sense of normalcy as you kind of exit this year?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#9

Yes, that's fair.

David Lewis

analyst
#10

Okay. The other thing is that I've been asking other questions to other CEOs about your '21 numbers. And obviously, I'm not expecting you to give us '21 guidance. But it's funny, I look at the analyst models, and they have, '21 is like 20%, 25% above 2019, which kind of says, hey, you're kind of growing 10% to 15% over the next 2 years. That also seems conservative. As you think about the outlook of your business, Adam, I just wonder if the analysts see something that I don't, once again, needed for me to be critical. But as I look at '21, as you're thinking about the outlook for your business, that looks also conservative relative to some of your peers. Any reason to believe the sort of forward momentum and market development dynamics that have driven your business here in '19 and '20 would somehow be arrested in '21?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#11

Yes. I -- without commenting, of course, on any specific numbers for '21 or even beyond that, maybe it's worth sort of stepping back and sort of understanding and commenting on sort of what the fundamental drivers of our growth are. We had our first Investor Day last December, where we sort of outlined, if not formally a 5-year plan, a sense of what does that look like. And we talked a lot about the market around peripheral thrombectomy, both the arterial and the venous side. We talked about that having 430,000 patients that are being treated today by our customers. So unlike stroke where we have a smaller number, 200,000 potential patients, that aren't all being treated, we're about 25% penetrated there. And we have to get those patients to the right hospital and all the work that's being done and the conversations we've had over the years about that. Here, we have more than doubled the number of patients that are being treated by our own customers, using technically, experimental techniques, dripping tPA or surgery. And all we have to do is convince them that our newest products are better to do that. So we expect that certainly in the near term and into the midterm that, that part of our business is going to drive a lot of our growth. It's just the numbers, I think, we've been as clear about that for a while as possible that that's where the big part of our growth will come. And then we outlined the opportunity with the REAL System that has only gotten significantly bigger since the COVID pandemic started with the idea of moving into home use and tele rehab. So we're more confident than ever about our business, both in the near, mid and long term. Again, not commenting on specific numbers. We'll do that when we reinstitute guidance. But we really have a lot of comfort. Now I want to comment because every time I talk about other things, people want to read into the fact that I didn't say something about stroke, particularly. I am incredibly proud of our stroke business. I am incredibly proud about our current stroke business. We have a lot of confidence in it, and one shouldn't take away from what I said about the other stuff to mean anything. But just the pure numbers and size tells you that what is going to drive our growth will be that part of our business, just in terms of the pure law of numbers.

David Lewis

analyst
#12

Yes. I was going to go -- I was actually not going to go at stroke this early in the conversation, but you kind of brought it up. Essentially in this conference, the CEO of Medtronic is talking of their stroke business. The CEO of Stryker is talking of their stroke business.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#13

Yes.

David Lewis

analyst
#14

Private companies at this conference, Imperative Care, are talking about an underserved and undertreated market. 2, 3 years ago, people questioned your leadership position in the stroke market, your ability to gain share and grow that business. Your level of confidence that you can continue to -- and can you still take share in the stroke business? Or should people sort of think about this as being a totally underserved market opportunity, where you will maintain a leadership position, that TAM will grow and you'll generate growth that way? How are you feeling about your ability to stay one step ahead of the competition given everyone's got the bull's eye on your back?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#15

Well, yes, that's a great question, and I appreciate it. I will -- to be fair, I have a lot of respect for our competitors. But we've been hearing that they're going to knock us down for a long, long time. And we continue to innovate. And innovation is going to continue to drive this field for a while. And we have a lot of confidence. And whether it's our current products, the future products coming, that innovation will continue to put us, I think, in a market-leading position. So again, the competition is great. It spurs us on. We never get bored, and we certainly never rest on our laurels. And so for that sense, I am delighted that our business is the focus of the CEO of Medtronic and the CEO of Stryker, I think I take that as a badge of honor.

David Lewis

analyst
#16

Okay. Well said. So I've always found you to be a pretty measured CEO. You don't talk about your product launches prior to launching them. And you're simply not promotional, but that has sort of not been your tact as it relates to the Lightning 12 launch. So help us understand, why you are so enthusiastic about that launch and maybe share with us some of the early commercial adoption trends you're seeing.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#17

Yes. So I would disagree that, that hasn't been my tact. I did make the statement that this was the best product launch in our history 2 weeks into the launch, and maybe that's what you're referring to, that, that seemed out of character. I actually think it was exactly in character. I wouldn't have said that if it wasn't true. And what was true about it was really 2 things. The first was, very simply, that the way we launch the product through this virtual means was really extraordinary. We got to touch and get in front of thousands of doctors in a very, very short period of time, which wouldn't have happened in a pre-COVID era. So from that standpoint, the technical launch was that successful. You can't do it with every product. It has to be with meaningful products. This was. And it worked. The second part that I meant by that is really to hear and see, even in the first few weeks, people's reaction to the product in their first case. I've been doing this for almost 20 years. And you get a sense of sort of pattern recognition. People use a product, they may have a great case but they'll be cautious, that might have been an easy case or let me really put it through its pieces in a series of more difficult ones. And with this particular product, the reaction to it after one case has been just extraordinary. I've never seen anything like it in my tenure of launching products, and we launched an awful lot of products over the course of time. Just from our IPO to now, I think it's [ 80 ] products that we've launched. So that reaction had really stood out, and I can tell you now 2 months later that I have not overstated that.

David Lewis

analyst
#18

Okay. And the DVT market, it's kind of interesting. There is -- I mean, the real competitor is medical management -- medical therapy...

Adam Elsesser

executive
#19

Yes. 100%.

David Lewis

analyst
#20

So that's the TAM expanding opportunity. If we look, there are other products in there. I'm kind of curious in the earlier stage, if I had to say to you, on a percentage basis, how much of your early revenue traction is coming from sort of share capture relative to what you consider TAM expansion, how would you answer that?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#21

Yes. I think it's a great question. I mean there are certainly people who are using better products are trying our product. But that's certainly not been our -- our primary focus was certainly there to serve and make the products available for everyone. But the real goal is to go after folks who are using medical management or more importantly, dripping tPA, which isn't really medical management directly. It's the use of an interventional means. And it's those that we've seen the most gain. The way we've heard people frame it to us -- and so this isn't us framing it to them. But they looked at our prior product, our CAT 8 product is sort of too small to do -- treat DVT successfully. They look at larger 24 French products as maybe too big. There might be damage to valves and so on. And so they look at Lightning 12 and what they're hearing and seeing as the sort of the just right product. And that's intriguing them, and they're responding. And again, we see it in the cases, we see it in the behavior. So I think that gives us a lot of confidence that we're on the right path. And it's not just Lightning 12, as you know, we also received clearance for CAT 7, which is really more of an arterial product. And that's sort of the just right product for a lot of people who may be hesitant to use a larger catheter in some of the arteries and our CAT 6 maybe was too small. So in both areas, both on the arterial and the venous side, we feel like we're sort of set up for a fairly significant chance to convert people from dripping tPA to doing this procedure.

David Lewis

analyst
#22

Adam, the one model I do have is -- I do have an Inari model. If I look at my DVT numbers for Inari next year and I kind of adjust for just their DVT-specific revenue, I mean this could be a $50 million, $75 million revenue line for Inari just in DVT alone. As I think about your business with the success you're seeing in Lightning 12 near term, will you be disappointed if this is not a, I don't know, $50 million, $100 million business for Penumbra in the next 12 to 24 months?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#23

Yes. I'm going to avoid being too specific on the number, but I will tell you, we have very high expectations for this part of our business. We do think it will be the thing that drives our near and midterm growth. So that's the better way of answering the question.

David Lewis

analyst
#24

Okay.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#25

Let me -- we're starting with a pretty significant base already. We're not starting at 0. This makes up a significant part of our business already and that, I think, changes people's perspective. I think people forget that. I think people think stroke is the majority of our business. And we've moved past that already.

David Lewis

analyst
#26

Sure. One thing that did surprise me, I don't think you've been specific about your pricing, but I sort of went into this launch, thinking $6,500, $8,500 for this product and those suggest as well as some of your public commentary that when I adjust for separators, the pricing of the product is probably maybe less than $6,500. And I think you could have priced this thing at $6,500. And one of those investor dynamics of Penumbra where they've had tremendous success has been -- I'd like that Penumbra gross margin to be a little higher than low, if the Penumbra gross margin were 70, not 60. Here's a perfect opportunity to kind of price at parity, get a really significant mix shift. And look, you're still going to get a mix shift in the product at $5,500 and $6,000 relative to Indigo, but you had an opportunity to drive more mix. And it sounds like based on your public commentary, you didn't take that opportunity. Why is your pricing strategy appropriate here?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#27

Yes. That's a great question, David. And I think people miss -- I think people don't quite get on the investment side pricing from a hospital's perspective. And there's sort of a dynamic. Hospitals don't like to see a company with 80-plus percent margins. That's not a benefit. And they want to make sure they're getting well treated. And more importantly, when you're in a growth market, where you know you're going to attract more and more competitors, this is now the most sort of popular and sought after area. Remember, for years, we talked about this being a market, and it wasn't until recently that investors sort of recognized that. And so we're obviously going to attract more competitors and more folks coming into this market. And the last thing you want to do is price yourself at a point where in the middle of your growth, you're going to have to reduce price. That's sort of a buzzkill, if you will, I mean, in the middle of that process. So we price it fairly, and everyone feels like they're getting the right price. And if you look back at our history in pricing strategy with stroke, everyone thought we would have to reduce price when competitors came into the market with aspiration catheters. And we've never reduced price, and we withstood that competition. And the last thing you want to do is have competition lose share and reduce price on top of that. That's not a positive thing. So we price things very carefully. We're very strategic about it. And I think in the long run, that sets us up for a much greater success.

David Lewis

analyst
#28

Is Lightning 12 in this configuration? I know you don't have a label yet for PE, but obviously, you're going to pursue one. Is Lightning 12 in this configuration? Is that the product you take into pulmonary embolism? And is your pricing likely to be consistent?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#29

So -- yes. So Lightning 12 is not going to be -- once there's an indication for the combination, it's not going to be priced separately from one specialty to the other, it's the same product, right? Just to clarify, Lightning has a PE indication, but the CAT 12 product doesn't. So that's an important distinction, so that people understand that. But the answer is the product will not have 2 separate prices depending on what it's being used for. That doesn't sort of work.

David Lewis

analyst
#30

Yes. It's not going to work inside the system. Totally agree. Where does Lightning 12 go from here? What's sort of the -- what's the next generation of this product?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#31

Yes. It's a great question. I -- I'm not going to tell you, but I can tell you that we view this as really the starting point of the next phase of innovation. We hosted a large summit last night, one, first night of 2 nights, where we had 300 and some-odd people dial in for a virtual experience, listening to folks go through their cases. And I opened the session, and we talked about the goal that we have, which is really to continue to innovate for a number of years to make -- removing clot, whether it's the arterial side, the venous side, PE, just so routine that no one really thinks about doing anything else. It just becomes a simple and routine procedure. And in order to do that, Lightning 12 provides the starting point for that, but it's certainly not the ending point. And you know us, we're well underway developing the next components to this long before we even launched this. So stay tuned. We'll continue to add tools and continue to improve them for many years to come.

David Lewis

analyst
#32

Okay. Very helpful. So let's talk about this XTRA FLEX situation. We have a situation where investors seemed concerned that you're telling a doctor not to use a product kind of against the contraindications. So it seems a little goofy here. Maybe just share your perspective here because I've got a few follow-ups.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#33

Yes. I mean let me maybe start just sort of with what happened because there's a lot of misconceptions in the new windows and other things that are sort of out there. So let's just start with the basic facts. JET 7 XTRA FLEX was designed as an aspiration catheter. It tracks through the brain incredibly well and it aspirates clot better than any catheter on the market. And I think people pretty much will agree with that. One typically doesn't inject contrast through an aspiration catheter because -- after you suck out clot because the contrast could push that clot back out that you just -- if it's still in there, and it could push it back out. It might not do it in every case, but that possibility exists. So that's not a necessary or typical thing. Do some folks do it? Do some folks have to do it in certain cases? Maybe, but our instructions have always, from the very beginning, said, don't do that. As you know, there were some tragic cases that happened when contrast was injected through the JET 7 XTRA FLEX. Like any other medical device company, I assume, we did a thorough evaluation. We followed all of the procedures and the quality system, and we shared that information very openly with the FDA. We were incredibly transparent. We wanted to make sure that all of our customers knew that the instruction said don't do this. So we added a very specific warning, an additional saying, please do not do this with this product. And we sent that to every single hospital that had purchased JET 7 XTRA FLEX. We made sure that it was received through the formal risk management departments. And since we did that, it's been almost 2 months. We haven't received a single report of this happening again. So we did this the right way. There is no their story. David, I've been around for 16 years at Penumbra running this and we've played an important role in opening up the stroke market and other critical markets like vascular thrombectomy, we just talked about. Our team talks to customers every day. And one thing I've learned over the years is that our customers don't like it when there's this sort of innuendo and false statements that are spread about what's actually happening. And they tend to support us and our products even more when that happens. And I kind of sense it that's happening now. I don't think everyone understands this market maybe or the procedure and what's actually happening. So maybe these things will continue. The articles will keep coming. We expect more. But from a field standpoint for what's actually happening out there, our customers think this is behind us. They give us a lot of credit for handling this openly and well, and they have supported the use of this product. I mean it's an amazing product. And it's enabled countless cases where you wouldn't be able to bring other products up that hard, that far, that fast. You would be taking products that weren't as good, potentially adding dissections or things to the procedure. So I can't respond other than that. I'm proud of how we've handled this, and I'm certainly proud of this product.

David Lewis

analyst
#34

Yes. I probably have seen, I don't know, 30 of these situations in my career, and I'm probably dating myself. The way these companies get off track in situations like this are really 1 of 2 ways: one, they're telling doctors they're doing it wrong; or number two, they're not honest and upfront about the clinical risks to the product. It just is telling in this particular situation you're providing physicians choice, where they can go back to use the 68 if they wanted to. If they want to increase tractability and not push catheter -- sorry, dies to the catheter, they can also do that. So you're providing choice. It sounds like you're very confident how you've handled this from a clinical information perspective, sharing the risk with clinicians. So we want just to get you to respond to that, number one. And number two, do you think this product is safe to stay on the market because I imagine you're also working on further innovations of this product in the future?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#35

Yes. There's -- first of all, the answer is this product is absolutely safe. I mean there would be a massive uproar from physicians if somehow there's noise and sort of stuff pulled this -- got people to say this product should go. I mean there would -- that would just be absurd. I mean this product has enabled so many successful cases, that would not -- I just think that's -- that makes no sense to hear that. That isn't an issue. The question about -- and you're right, certainly, physicians who want to inject contrast can use one of our other catheters or a competitor catheter. I just want to sort of comment on that. We are never ever going to tell physicians how to do procedures. Their judgment is amazing. And they always have to exercise their independent judgment. And there are cases in which things happen, which they need to react quickly and do things that they need to do. So we're never going to challenge that. But I do think it's worth pointing out that -- and I really mean this without, again, saying anything about our customers and their judgment, that the idea that you would want to routinely inject contrast through an aspiration catheter that that's like a goal of a procedure. That's not a very highly held view. And I think a lot of folks who may have done that, this whole scenario gave them an opportunity to rethink it and go, why was I doing that? Maybe I should limit that. Because by definition, you're going to, in certain number of cases, push clot back out and that's obviously not good for the patient. So to some degree, I think that this has been a good moment for the field. Because as the field grows and the -- it allows everyone to sort of level set as to what we are doing. And it's certainly not a majority view or even a significant view at all, that the goal should be to be injecting contrast through your aspiration catheter on a routine basis.

David Lewis

analyst
#36

It sounds like competitors that may suggest that, that is an inappropriate clinical behavior, it may backfire is sort of the suggestion.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#37

Well, yes, I think it has backfired. And I can feel it. I definitely sense that that's happening in the field. It feels to a lot of the customers that have shared their views with us that that's been a pretty big overreach to be encouraging doctors to take that risk in these cases to use their product.

David Lewis

analyst
#38

And do you think that this -- I mean, this creates a little bit of kind of clinical noise in the channel. Is it reasonable to assume that clinical noise has some near-term commercial friction? Or you really think this is a well-understood issue and is unlikely to have kind of commercial applications?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#39

Yes. I appreciate that question. We -- this has been going on for -- the field heard about this almost 2 months ago. This is not something we spend a lot of time now on in the field anymore. I think they've digested it and moved on. And again, we have not seen the kind of -- any kind of negative impact from this as our business continues to do quite well. So I think the noise is in the confusion. Some of these sort of articles that have a lot of falsehoods and other things in them. I think that's a fair thing for people to ask about and I'm delighted to always try to answer all those questions. But from a field standpoint, this is not something we see, and our customers have been incredibly supportive and have stood by it.

David Lewis

analyst
#40

Okay. Well, unfortunately, Adam, we're out of time. I wanted to hit VR a little bit here. If we have -- I have time for 1 more minute, if we have -- you talked about VR starting to have some commercial impact back half of '20. Is that still your view? Has that been impacted at all by COVID? Or has COVID actually been frankly a catalyst for VR, frankly?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#41

Yes. Well, so for 2, there's sort of the good and the bad. The bad is getting our original system out. We -- it slowed down a little because of COVID and ability to have those conversations and also just budgets in certain places, they got pinched a little in the middle of the year. But nothing that I think is any kind of long-term issue at all. And then COVID has had a very positive impact, if you will, which I hate to say it that way. It sounds odd when it came out that way. But it's opened up an opportunity for tele rehab and home use and the reimbursement for a system like that. So we've announced that we were working on that. And that opens up huge new opportunities, not just in the traditional sort of stroke rehab that people heard we were working on with this, but other medical conditions that could benefit from that type of thing. So we went from a pretty significant opportunity to a much, much larger opportunity. And as you can tell from just even last quarter, we're investing pretty heavily in making that a reality. So I think this effort that we're doing is profound. I just heard yesterday from one of our care specialists out in the field who shared with a story of a woman who had a stroke and was -- had very little movement in her arms. She couldn't raise it, sort of above here. Had been going to rehab for about a year, traditional rehab. The center got the REAL System that she was in and within a month of using the REAL System, she's regained almost all of that mobility after having not done that for about a year. And her biggest comment was she's so delighted because she's been swimming in circles. She does a lot of swimming, and now she swims straight. So those kind of things make me feel good and realize that what we have here is a really important tool.

David Lewis

analyst
#42

Okay. Well, let's end on swimming in circles.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#43

Okay.

David Lewis

analyst
#44

[ I've been having that problem in ] my life. Adam, as every year, I appreciate you spending time with us here, talk to us. And enjoy your meetings and enjoy the rest of your week, sir.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#45

Yes. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

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