Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

May 9, 2023

New York Stock Exchange US Health Care conference_presentation 30 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Travis Steed

analyst
#1

All right. Good morning, everybody. Travis Steed, Bank of America Medical Device analyst, kicking off the first day here. Glad to have Adam Elsesser from Penumbra, CEO.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#2

Yes. Thanks for having.

Travis Steed

analyst
#3

Yes. Thanks for joining us. Curious if you want to just open with any opening remarks or straight into Q&A?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#4

Yes. I think we can go straight into Q&A. We're just a week off of our earnings call. So I think we've laid out where we feel we -- the business is right now pretty well.

Travis Steed

analyst
#5

Yes. Yes. Sounds good.

Travis Steed

analyst
#6

When you think about the Q1, some of the trends you saw with some of the new launches in January, February and into April, maybe just kind of level set us kind of what you're seeing in March, April versus the earlier part of the year with some of the early momentum that you've had with some of the product launches and an overall procedure environment as well?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#7

Yes. We'll start with maybe overall procedure. It certainly feels better than last year, where, particularly in the second quarter, there was a lot of conversation amongst all device companies around staffing and all that. It's obviously not 100%, but we don't hear that. No one is talking about that in the same way. So there's a lot more optimism, a lot more positivity, if you will, in the hospital setting. As it relates to the launch of Flash and now Lightning Bolt, it's kind of amazing. It's wonderful. It's the culmination -- I shouldn't say culmination. It's the beginning of the next phase of 19 years of work to see the excitement around it, the uptick, bringing in new customers, being able to treat these patients faster and easier and safer than ever before. It's kind of fun.

Travis Steed

analyst
#8

Then on the venous side, and procedures grew 30% sequentially. Like how does that look historically? I'm just curious of what the step-up was. Any way to think about historical seasonality, how much of this was really -- thinking about the launch.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#9

Yes. I think historically, most of everyone would agree that the step from fourth quarter to first quarter is not a major step up. It's usually the other way around, fourth quarter tends to be the best quarter. So we called that out because, obviously, our customers that were otherwise using Lightning 12 didn't grow 30%. The majority of that came from new customers and the excitement around that, the reorder rates are the same as old customers, as we said. So it just, I think, is a factual indication of the excitement around this. And as everyone knows, launches aren't linear, there's a process. Sometimes you get to try -- the hospital gives you permission to buy a couple of products. And if you like them, then you can start the value analysis committee process. Other times, you have to just start that independently before you can try it. And there's sort of various methods across all thousand-plus hospitals that we go into. So we're in the early stages of that. What gives us a lot of confidence is the sheer number of physicians and hospitals that are actively involved in that process who really want to use this product. Many of them were able to try it and then they have to go through the process, others -- so there's a little delay there. Others are able to just have to just start the process. But it all comes back to what we're hearing, what we're seeing, the number of accounts in process that gives us a lot of confidence that this is what people have wanted.

Travis Steed

analyst
#10

And on the reorder rates, are you seeing an acceleration in those reorder rates in April?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#11

I don't have those numbers exactly. I don't want to miss count. But yes, the enthusiasm in the business as we continue into this quarter and the next is not going down. And it's not staying flat. It's -- the business is very strong.

Travis Steed

analyst
#12

When you think about like where is the process with the VAC committees, where you are opening new accounts, et cetera. Like how do you phrase like where you are in this launch? Like do you want to use like third inning, or -- I know you onto baseball, I don't think. So just maybe talk about like where we are in this launch, how much effort it's going to take to be kind of fully launched?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#13

Well, for those who know me using baseball analogies a little silly, because I'm not a big sports fan, but I think we're in the first inning. I think we have a lot of accounts in this country. We have a huge number of patients that we know can benefit that physicians are telling us. We talked about that on the quarter earnings call where we put out for the first time in a long time, what the possibility was that we -- patients we can impact with these products. So there's no way we're not in the first inning toward that opportunity. And maybe it's in the first part of the first inning. And that's the most exciting part. I've had the opportunity to talk with a number of very senior physicians in all the subspecialties who have used both Lightning Bolt and Lightning Flash and talked to them more sort of philosophically, like are we now -- can we now see how this ends, if you will? Like obviously, our products will keep iterating. We've been known for that. We'll tweak them here and there. But within that idea, are we -- can we see to where all of these patients that aren't even being treated today with any kind of mechanical or even interventional means, can they be treated? Can we help them? And uniformly, these folks are like the level of enthusiasm and excitement about doing that work to do that and to bring in those patients and help them is what we've been waiting for. Like it's what the work has led up to. And from my vantage point, having 19 years is, I personally I'm so excited about the next 5 years. I can't wait to be in the middle of bringing this change to this field. It was not long ago where I was sitting probably in this exact room in 2016 after we went public, and there was a conversation about our vascular business, which was basically a quarter old. And the question was, is that a market? And for the 800,000 people that we can impact, yes, it's a market. They want relief, and they want their clot taken out. And now we can see how we get there in the easiest and safest manner.

Travis Steed

analyst
#14

Yes, I remember that conversation. You said you wouldn't talk about SWIFT at some point.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#15

Here we are.

Travis Steed

analyst
#16

Here we are. So true to your words. Maybe just think about initially in the initial launch through Q1, what you're seeing in terms of opening the market up, getting into the 800,000 procedures. Are you seeing like new doctors come in that haven't used mechanical thrombectomy in the past. Maybe talk about the market development a little bit.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#17

Yes, we're -- so it depends on which product we're talking about. So with Lightning Bolt, which is our arterial product, the most -- if you're using a mechanical product, there are certainly some other products, but we're the primary one today. So obviously, lot of our conversations now are with people who are doing either catheter-directed lysis or the bigger chunk is people who are doing open surgery. And we said on the call, those conversations are really positive and exciting. There's a lot of interest to bring this in and try it. We've had some early success. I mentioned a particular case on the earnings call. So that growth, if you will, or that excitement is going to come primarily from people who aren't doing mechanical because that's the majority of those. On the venous side with Flash, it's a little bit different. You're really starting with folks who are already believing in mechanical, and we're just sort of getting the constant innovation and evolution of products. And Flash is leading the way. You can't really stop progress. And that's the exciting part of the field. So most of the growth in the short term in the next -- last quarter, this quarter, next couple of quarters is going to come from people who are already in. But we're not excluding anyone who wants to start to use the product, but by definition, it's primarily going to be that.

Travis Steed

analyst
#18

And so would you think it's fair to characterize like the Lightning Bolt launched a little slower. You saw 30% sequential growth in the venous side of the business and procedures this quarter.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#19

It won't -- how it ends up, hard to tell, but the trajectories are slightly different because you're starting with someone who's not doing an interventional procedure. So it's going to take a touch longer. So don't expect the same type of numbers out of the box. But it's hard to know 3 or 4 years from now -- well, 3 or 4 years from now, there are more venous patients than arterial. So by definition, that will still probably be bigger.

Travis Steed

analyst
#20

What did you assume in the guidance? I know you raised the guidance from $1 billion plus to $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion. In terms of that assumption, what are you assuming on those 2 product launches?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#21

Yes. We didn't break out by product. And I think it's not probably a smart idea to do that right now. We'll give updates, obviously, throughout the year as we see those trajectories. But directionally, it will be more Flash than arterial just this year because of the issues we just talked about, the pace of the trajectory.

Travis Steed

analyst
#22

So like Flash could be like double the size of Bolt, by the time -- into the year?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#23

I'm not that good at math, so I can't just probably answer that.

Travis Steed

analyst
#24

That's fair. Is there a good sense for kind of the breakdown of the arterial versus the venous side of the business now, how to think about which one is bigger?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#25

Yes. Again, I think it's fair to say that the venous side is bigger because more people are doing interventional -- mechanical device use has been on the arterial right now.

Travis Steed

analyst
#26

Okay. And then on the VAC committees, it follows the same process with Lightning Bolt as Flash?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#27

Yes. And there's nothing new about this. 19 years of selling products, the process is the same. Some go quick, some don't. You got to go through all. So it's just -- the reason I mentioned it is just -- in all of our excitement, we still have to do that. There is still a process that we have to take time in and it would be awesome if we didn't have to, but we have to.

Travis Steed

analyst
#28

I think you said you're moving in some large hospitals. When you think about the initial launch, were the smaller hospitals like just now going into large hospitals that take longer or...

Adam Elsesser

executive
#29

I only mentioned that one on the call because I wanted to sort of level set that one of the larger systems, we're just getting started, which is great, and there's a lot of excitement there. But it varies between large and small and the rest of the customers that have already come up with...

Travis Steed

analyst
#30

That makes sense. Maybe thinking about the market development a little bit more. I know we are bouncing around here a little bit, but the 800,000 patients on the venous side, like do you have the technology need to go after all those patients at this point or future iterations to get there? And kind of the same question on the arterial side of the business as well.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#31

Yes. So that's a great question. The answer is the idea -- the technology, the proprietary technology around computer orchestrated aspiration is the technology that will get us there. That's the most important point. And because we see that, because physicians are now talking about that, we can focus our energies, and I talked about that on the call around these areas over the next bunch of years. There are going to be tweaks, there are going to be additional things. Somebody asked a question today, which I thought was an insightful question. We used to call Lightning Bolt Lightning Bolt. Now we call it Lightning Bolt 7. I think that it's pretty obvious why we added a number there. So those types of things will come. But none of the things that will come that we think are helpful will be -- are sort of new innovations. They're sort of blocking and tackling things that we've done throughout our career as a company. And that's pretty exciting. And the teams, as I said, really focused on getting there pretty quickly.

Travis Steed

analyst
#32

Do you need more clinical data? Or is it more just like to fill in this market?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#33

Data is always helpful. It depends on the type of data. And there are obviously certain studies like STORM-PE, which we announced, which now that Flash is here, will be enrolling very soon where we can show the use of mechanical, our Flash device versus anticoagulants. I think that will be helpful in the PE space. I think each -- other, DVT and arterial are slightly different. And I think we'll add that -- whatever data is necessary, but I think it's a little bit different than an area like PE.

Travis Steed

analyst
#34

And when you think about -- you saw the stroke market develop, then how would you think about the trajectory of kind of the venous market, arterial market? And what you think about where the stroke market is potentially going?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#35

Yes. I mean, I think that's a great question. I think the biggest difference between the stroke market and these other areas is you don't have to move the patient in a time-sensitive way. And that's a huge deal. And some of the procedures are obviously time sensitive, certain PE cases, certain arterial case, a lot of arterial cases. But not all of them are as time sensitive. But even if they are, you really aren't moving the patient for the most part as more and more capability gets built out in the hospitals and desire to treat them interventionally. So without that, that as the big barrier, I think you're going to see a different. Well, we've already seen a different uptake in the last sort of 4 -- since 2016 when we were talking about it. And I think that's in large part because the logistics are in our favor.

Travis Steed

analyst
#36

And maybe more on the vascular side -- or sorry, the arterial side. What's the awareness like within the physician community? I think really just struggled to understand why you can't have more of an open procedure or [indiscernible] when now you have this new technology?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#37

Yes. I don't see it that way. Great physicians have been trying to help these patients for a long time, and vascular surgeons have done great work by getting out clot in that manner. So they've been doing it for a long time, and it's generally been pretty successful. So I don't see it as that simple like everyone should stop. They have to hear about it. They have to experience it. I think it's pretty compelling once you do, and that's our experience so far, which has given us confidence. But that -- obviously, we can't go to every single physician at once. And so it's going to take some time. But all of the reactions and all the positive trends in the reactions are what's giving us this confidence.

Travis Steed

analyst
#38

That's helpful. I do want to -- if anybody in the audience has questions, feel free to jump in, raise your hand. We can keep this interactive. Maybe on switching to stroke, in the clinical trial. I think you said you'd give an update in the next month or 2 or a quarter or 2? Like is that getting closer to finishing enrollment?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#39

So let me sort of share -- so enrollment, the trial is going well. The enrollment is never as fast as anyone obviously wants, and we'll be able to sort of get a better sense of when it will end. None of that should worry anyone. That's a positive thing. And the reason is that -- right now, we have this moment in time with RED 43 and SENDit, which goes inside 72, where the ability to track our catheters to the face of the clot is back, in fact, to what it was back in the days when we had Xtra Flex. Unfortunately, and I don't want to revisit those controversies. But there are a lot of people who love that product and it really enabled them to treat successfully because the trackability was so good. Now with SENDit, which is an inner catheter inside that comes loaded inside 72, we are seeing physicians who had moved away from our aspiration system coming back because it's so trackable. And in fact, the comments are like, oh my God, this is even more trackable than extra flex, which is a high compliment. Obviously, it doesn't have any of the other downsides. So we have -- the team and our sales and marketing team are pretty excited about having time to take share back and repenetrate the market so that when Thunderbolt comes, there is no discussion about what catheter. They're already using our catheters and Thunderbolt just attaches to it. So in some funny way, this actually worked out really well because we have the time to make this about the catheters, and they're performing unbelievably well and we're seeing the share shift back. So -- and again, we don't need -- I mean, from a revenue standpoint, we have a lot of growth ahead in our other business, so we're in pretty good shape right now.

Travis Steed

analyst
#40

When you think about the share, I don't know where you think you are in terms of gaining that share back? How much further you can go in terms of like how much share you lost? Can you get it all back, portion of the back, how long that takes? Think through some of the share dynamics in the stock market.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#41

Yes. I mean so the markets evolved in stroke used to be when we went public, we have some big companies we compete against now. There's like 6 or 7 small private companies that all have catheters selling. So it's a lot more disjointed than it used to be. So it's not one company that we're -- it's just the market, which I think makes it easier, not harder. And as we start to take share, it starts to redefine the space. So there's a lot of excitement. There's a lot of momentum. The morale and the team is sort of back to really good right now because of that. So it's funny.

Travis Steed

analyst
#42

Do you feel like the market is accelerating a little bit as well?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#43

Probably. Nothing -- if you can pretty easily treat the stroke because you get the catheter there quickly and treat it, you're probably going to be pretty excited about treating and that leads to the effort that is necessary to grow the business. Hard to quantify really market growth across the board versus share right now. It's easier to define share. So we're optimistic, let's wait a few quarters to see.

Travis Steed

analyst
#44

Right. Makes sense. And the Thunderbolt launch, like how would you think about the momentum of that in terms of comparing it to like the Flash launch, the Bolt launch? Is it a little slower? I mean stroke, what's the percentage of stroke?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#45

Yes. So Thunderbolt hasn't launched. We're just enrolling in the trial. Yes. I think it will be pretty good. Again, the only caution, and it's not a caution about the product or anything is stroke is the most penetrated and the smallest of the markets we're talking about. So the opportunity is still smaller than the other ones. And I only say that remind everyone that's not at all that we're not passionate about, the work we're doing and our motivation. But what will show up as a driver for us over the next 5 years, stroke will play, I think, a significant part of that, but it will still be smaller than the other ones.

Travis Steed

analyst
#46

When you think about the international opportunity in some of these products internationally, I mean obviously, China is a bit bumpy with the VBPs and stuff like that. So maybe just spend some time on getting people comfortable with the launches and growth internationally over the next -- over this year and the next?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#47

Yes. So we've been fortunate to have a pretty strong international business. Jason answered the question around China before, we're not immune from those issues, but the way the deal is structured and also the fact that most of those products are prior generations allows us to have opportunity for growth in China as well, where we are now more focused is how to bring these latest generations of product, Flash, Bolt, ultimately Thunderbolt, to the international markets and in what form so that we're getting proper reimbursement, proper focus rather than just sort of selling what we can. And that's a great -- that's a great place to be where we can sort of step back and do the work right and not feel rushed to use international grow because we're going to have a lot of growth here for a while. So I think that puts us in a pretty good spot, not just now but really over the next 5-plus years.

Travis Steed

analyst
#48

Makes sense. And then I know Mag is not here, but just a high-level gross margin question, trying to think vastly to ask you this question. But maybe one way just to think for -- like when you think about innovation and like how much of a focus is like margins when it comes to innovation and pricing and all that? And how -- when you think about the new product launches, like how much of this margin, 70% growth margins come up in the launches itself?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#49

Yes. I was going to tell a joke, and I realized it might not work. But I would say it anyway. We used to obviously not focus on margins. We were all about the pace of innovation, constantly improving the product. And we frankly didn't spend a lot of time on it. Obviously, with COVID and what the pressure on margins and our size, the combination of that obviously led to an appropriate need to pay attention to both gross margins, operating margins and so on. I think what you're seeing is that we're doing that. And I'm pretty proud of that because there's -- we challenged on the operations side coming out of COVID as we were able to get back to sort of more normal, not spread out the lines, not do -- have all the safety measures in place to some more normal semblance of an operation that had a sort of different cost structure to it. In addition, this newer group of technologies, computer aspiration by definition, has a slightly more accretive margin higher. So when you add that work together, together with the product mix coming, I think we're going to be in pretty good shape. I wish margins on the gross margin side could change faster. There's things run through over a period of time. It's not immediate. That's just the nature of running an operation where we make all of our own products and have all of that plus product launches that come all the time. So that's just the nature of where we are. I think we're in really good shape. We have a pretty good visibility to the next year or 2, and it puts us in a good shape. On the operating side, I care a lot about being profitable. You remember when we first went public, we were profitable. We didn't -- I didn't know you didn't have to be profitable. And so we certainly know and care about running a profitable business. We showed that this quarter, obviously, as we are focused on being focused on our spending and getting the best benefit. When you go forward, we're pretty built out. I mean, I'm not going to say we're not going to hire a lot of people, but we don't need to hire -- we don't need to double our sales force to get where we're going. We have a good sales force. They cover the country. And we can see some leverage coming particularly in SG&A pretty clearly over the next couple of years.

Travis Steed

analyst
#50

Just start generating cash, what do you -- how are you thinking about the use of cash?

Adam Elsesser

executive
#51

It's a good question. Our focus is on driving -- the best thing we can do right now, and I'm not saying it costs money, but is to do the work necessary to treat all of the people that can be treated first in this country and then in other countries for clot in their arteries, their veins and their lungs. If we can do that, end stroke. And if we can do that, all of these other issues are taken care of. That is our focus. We don't need to add little things here and there because that's our focus.

Travis Steed

analyst
#52

That's helpful. The last 50 seconds here, there were some questions on the MAUDE database. So I just wanted to give you the airtime to...

Adam Elsesser

executive
#53

Yes. I think everyone knows, over the last couple of years, we take complaints and MDRs very seriously. We're obviously quite conservative in the way things are reported. If you go look at those, they obviously -- there's nothing about the Flash algorithm or the product really that are relevant to those events. And I think everyone knows that, I think it's pretty obvious.

Travis Steed

analyst
#54

Thanks, Adam. Thanks for coming.

Adam Elsesser

executive
#55

All right. Thank you. Appreciate it.

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