Perrigo Company plc (PRGO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 17, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
David Risinger
analystGreat. So good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the session with Perrigo. My name is Dave Risinger, and I cover both major and specialty pharmaceuticals at Morgan Stanley. And it's very much my pleasure to welcome Perrigo to participate today. I do need to refer you to a disclaimer. This webcast is only for Morgan Stanley's clients and appropriate Morgan Stanley employees only. It's not for members of the press. If you are a member of the press, please disconnect and reach out separately. Please reference www.morganstanley.com/disclosures. And if you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. I want to apologize for our late start. We will try to run it 5 minutes late to recapture some of the time. So thank you for your patience, everyone, in particular, Murray and Ray. So it's my pleasure to welcome Murray Kessler, President and CEO; and Ray Silcock, CFO of Perrigo. I think Brad Joseph, VP of IR, may be on as well. And I thought it would be great, Murray, if you could provide some opening remarks, and then we'll jump right into the discussion.
Murray Kessler
executiveSure. And thanks for having us, Dave. For those of you who don't know Perrigo or aren't that familiar with me, I joined -- it's coming up on 2 years. It's remarkable. And for the first 6 months, we worked on a transformation plan, which we launched May, which was to transform the company to a consumer self-care company and restart revenue growth. And the goal was to be working towards an algorithm of organic growth of 3%, 5% operating profit, 7% EPS. And the goal was to get there by the end of 3 years. We're 1.5 years in, and we're well ahead of our revenue trajectory. And despite some hiccups, things on the transformation have gone remarkably well. And when I say some hiccups, I'm talking about things like tax overhang and some challenges that we've had to deal with along the way, which we're working through. Or this morning, you would have seen that we had to do a Class II recall on albuterol for reasons of patient safety, which is always our top priority. And we stand behind everything we sell, and I'm sure you'll have questions on that. But despite all that, the transformation is going amazingly well, so much so that we could take a big hiccup like this morning and not even need to change our guidance. And as you recall, as we came out of last quarter, I took a relatively cautious stance that, with pre-COVID, we didn't know how things would bounce back. They're bouncing back beautifully. And our consumer division is well, well ahead. And again, that's why we reconfirmed guidance despite the discussion on or the recall on albuterol. So I'm real happy with the way things are going. I love the revenue opportunities. We're focused on now the margins and the profitable growth. And just like the first part, I'm confident that will come, and happy to answer any questions.
David Risinger
analystExcellent. That's great. So thank you very much, Murray. So I think it'd be great for you to talk a little bit more about the consumer business momentum. So you talked about the very strong momentum. Obviously, you'd guided conservatively for the second half of the year. And talk about, if you could, what's performing better than expected in the U.S. and internationally?
Murray Kessler
executiveYes. And I'm conservative by nature, but I'm not a sandbagger. And it -- when you see our consumer numbers, you'll see they're very strong in the third quarter. We planned, when I sat there at the end of last quarter, that when we just sort of did the math, that there would be a little bit of a giveback on what we considered -- thought we -- was pantry load during the second quarter in the U.S. That really hasn't happened. The businesses -- has been quite robust. The only business that really has -- held any lasting opinion, and we can talk more about it is, cold cough. But everything else has -- in the U.S. has gone well better than what we projected. And then on base Rx business, which, during the height of it, we were primarily a topical cream business that relies on you going to the dermatologists. And during lockdowns, that business got hit disproportionately more than a lot of Rx businesses. And it was offset by albuterol, but it -- we didn't forecast that to recover as fast as it's recovering. Now we're still not back to 100% pre-COVID but ahead of where we projected it to be at this point in the third quarter. So that's added strength. And then the same thing for CSCI. Again, not back to -- fully back to pre-COVID but well ahead of what we forecasted because in CSCI, they were also affected by lockdowns, less travel. We have products like sun care and things like that, that rely on people traveling to beaches and travel sizes and lice products for kids in school, et cetera. Those were affected. And again, those rebounded faster than we had thought. So we were having a good year before that, and the trends continue pretty strong.
David Risinger
analystExcellent. All right. Well, actually, I sort of jumped in, but I think it would be helpful maybe, Ray, if you could just remind us about the mix of revenue and profits between your 3 business segments just to set the stage. And then I wanted to go back into some more discussion on the consumer side. So you just need to unmute -- Ray, you need to unmute your button. Just click on the mute button.
Murray Kessler
executiveWell, while he's doing that, Dave, we're about 80-20 consumer revenue to Rx revenue, and we're about 70-30 consumer profits to Rx profits. And we disproportionately allocate that overheads to consumer because as our goal, my discussion was we wanted to give a true picture of what consumer would look like as a stand-alone company.
David Risinger
analystGot it. Okay. That's very helpful. So then with respect to the consumer segment, so I think your company's objective overall is to drive the top line organically by 3% over time. And obviously, the assumption is consumer is in that range. Could you discuss your vision for that growth, the makeup of volume and price?
Murray Kessler
executiveYes. Well, well, right now and I'm not saying -- our goal remains 3% organic growth. We're probably double that. Well, we were double that when I reported it at the end of the second quarter. I don't know the exact number right now. That -- our basic model on the base business, so sort of the historic that I walked into, was about 4% to 5% volume growth gets you 1% to 2% revenue growth, which means you have about 5% volume and a negative 2%, 2.5% drag on price concessions. So that's kind of the model. Then everything we're doing beyond that is to get the incremental revenue that gets you to the 3% is either work that slows down price concessions on areas like innovation that differentiates us, services that give us the Perrigo advantage in understanding the consumer relative to our peer store brand competitors in the U.S., new products at higher margins and less price elasticity or price sensitivity, better service levels, e-commerce, which we've invested in at faster levels to give you that extra 1% to 2%. And then from the 3% or 4% to get to the 5%, that's where the margin work comes in.
David Risinger
analystGot it. And could you just add a little more color on how innovation actually results in less price pressure from the customer?
Murray Kessler
executiveWell, if you have a unique product, right? So for us, the price pressure doesn't come from the national brands. That -- the national brands generally usually are the first ones to innovate, especially on our core big CSCA business. And then we are usually the first to file and the first to market. Then our competitors come in and they'll try to offer the exact same thing, and then it's sort of a buying decision. We don't make pricing decisions. I don't make any of these pricing decisions based on what the consumer sees, right? We are, in essence, a contract packer for Walmart and Costco and Target and et cetera. And they're going to try to purchase at the best price and... [Technical Difficulty]
Unknown Attendee
attendeeHello, Ray. Can you hear us?
Murray Kessler
executiveI can hear you.
David Risinger
analystCan you hear me? Can you put us back in? Can you hear me?
Unknown Attendee
attendeeYes. Thank you.
David Risinger
analystYes. I'm on. Are we live with participants? Or where does this stand?
Unknown Attendee
attendeeWe are live.
David Risinger
analystOkay. Sorry, I don't know what happened with the technology. But Murray, you were commenting on -- I think you were just wrapping up on how to think about pricing in the business.
Murray Kessler
executiveYes. And I was on to the other things that give Perrigo the consumer advantage that offsets it. But the classic example is you launch an Omeprazole product. You have a number of years of -- as the only store brand competitor. And then eventually, your competitors file their ANDAs. They come in, and they try to compete on price. So it's up to us to innovate and stay ahead with either the product or with services, which we're getting better at, but that's still an area of focus. And we have a $0.5 billion of new products in the pipeline. So you innovate on the existing products, but you also stay ahead of them. So again, like on a Voltaren, which we weren't expecting, we're ahead. Then we'll have some competition. And we end up landing -- we end up holding our market shares, but you get back a little price concession. So we need to be faster, and we're getting there. I love what I see in terms of innovation in the company. And I'd say versus where I joined 2 years ago, we probably have 30%, 40% less price erosion than we did when I joined. And then we're getting there, we're getting there.
David Risinger
analystSo the less price erosion, could you just expand on that, please?
Murray Kessler
executiveWell, the less price erosion is just how many actual concessions you make with a customer or how much they demand. So if you develop a unique product and you launch it and there's nobody -- there's no leverage by the customer, right? Or if they can't service and we can service, there's less leverage. Or if you're focusing on products that have higher margins and you're trading up in mix, there's less margin erosion. So if I sort of concede on an area that is a lower-than-average gross margin but I -- or a lower revenue product, then I, as an example -- or I can trade into a category -- consumers into a category where you have a higher market share, those all generate revenue. So in the national brands, I -- in acetaminophen, the big player, has done a good job with that as an example of launching innovative products. Not raising prices, but launching innovative forms and dissolvables and at higher prices, so it drives the average up. We quickly follow. It drives our average up. So in Omeprazole and some of those categories, we're the market leader, actually. So we have innovated and brought things like minis and dissolvables that -- et cetera, that, again, give us competitive advantage and higher retail or higher purchase prices by our customers.
David Risinger
analystGot it. Okay. That's very helpful. And could you talk about the international business and paint the picture of that? You have both branded OTC. And you also have private label, particularly in the U.K. and certain other areas. So could you paint the picture for that business to help us understand that and the momentum for your international segment?
Murray Kessler
executiveYes. I mean we had a lot of momentum going into this. First off, your simple answer is it's probably a 90% branded business, 10% store brand, concentrated very heavily in the OTC area in the U.K. And then we bought Ranir, and Ranir had a nice -- and still has a nice piece of business across Europe, focused in 3 or 4 big markets: U.K., Germany and a couple of others. And that's actually presenting itself as a branded opportunity for us as well as some expansion on store brand. But so again, because of differentiation -- and I think Ranir was ahead of Perrigo a bit in terms of some of the innovation that helps it face less price pressure. And so we're having good success with that. Our oral care business has been a heck of an acquisition and is growing beautifully. The rest of the CSCI business, I would say, about half of it or 40% of it was helped by COVID. And the other half was hurt pretty much by COVID at a significant level, and it's kind of bounced back almost to sort of even with where it was. There are some segments we still have a ways to go. We didn't get hurt more than competition. In fact, in the second quarter when I reported, I think you'll see that Perrigo's international business outperformed most others internationally in that space. We are not brands that are pan-European by nature. We are more local heroes and local gems where we're #1 or #2 in the Netherlands, and then #1 or #2 with our ACO line of skin care, medicated skin care products in the Scandinavian country and we're #1 or #2 with Physiomer or some of the others in other areas. So the strategy there, and what's been building the momentum, and we need to get back to pre-COVID and get on with it again, has been a very strong innovation pipeline. We had something like 200 products. And it's not like you're used to with an albuterol, where it's a one big punch. It's winning across areas. And our strategy, instead of trying to build and go against the national brands pan-European is to take our strengths and then regionally expand it, and it's been working beautifully. So we have a skin care business in the Netherlands, and we buy a skin care business recently in Poland, but we are #1 in Scandinavia with 50 outstanding products. And we take those products and roll them out under the well-recognized brands in those other countries, but we get an instant pipeline. So that's been a real winner. And now what I'm pushing on is to take those same winners and bring them to the U.S. So a lot of geographic expansion but not brand expansion, if I'm clear.
David Risinger
analystThat's very helpful. Staying on consumers. So could you just frame for us the current situation with the flu? Obviously, I believe the southern hemisphere has seen minimal flu to date due to social distancing and mask wearing. What are the implications for Perrigo? How should we think about your cough, cold, flu business and prospects there?
Murray Kessler
executiveLike -- for the reasons you just said, and part of why I was pretty darn conservative in the second quarter call, was assuming no second spike, meaning that you would expect a softer cold cough season. Now when I still see consumer takeaway, it's off still in cough cold. So even in this reconfirming guidance, we've still assumed a down cold cough season versus a year ago. Now we haven't seen it in our shipments yet really. We're still pretty robust. We'll see as we get into what was a very strong October, November, December. But customer pre-build and things like that are still solid. I will correct one potential misperception that some people think when we report upper respiratory, I'm just talking cold, cough. And less than half of that is cold, cough. The other half is allergy, which has been very, very strong the whole year and still now.
David Risinger
analystGot it. Okay. Excellent. That's very helpful. So e-commerce is obviously booming. Could you remind us where Perrigo's sales stand today as a percentage of the company's revenue just so we understand its current relevance? And then discuss your strategy for the channel and the long-term implications for Perrigo.
Murray Kessler
executiveWell, again, this is an area that is evolving. It's -- I believe the numbers are something like 8% of total. I think we at the end of the second quarter was somewhere around $80 million. It's becoming meaningful, but more importantly is it's become a major focus. And COVID has woken a number of giants to say that it's not just Amazon, who can be annoying for us, but we need that for a new normal world, right? There is -- I don't know what your shopping behavior is. But the instacarts and the ships and -- is one scenario of delivered to home. And then there is a click-and-pick component, where you'll go in and you might pick it up at curbside. So I don't think people realize how much Perrigo is involved or a national brand for that matter with that actual marketing. It's not like we just ship them the product and then they deliver it that way. We actually have built tremendous resources in software and analytics and marketing programs that help you when you go on to those websites and you see the advertisements and the bundling recommendations and the feedback on what's working and what's not working. Perrigo has been a leader by far. And that's one of the Perrigo Advantage benefits, and that's why the business is doubling and tripling. I think it's got to even do more going forward. And we are very focused on the one area where -- one of our key marketing things we rely on, Dave, is that you, as a consumer, go into the store and we switch use to gain share by you looking at that price comparison side by side. So where a lot of our development is now is I don't want to just have -- if you're an existing consumer and you click on it and you ask for a national brand, you don't see the price comparison or you don't see us. All you see is the brand you selected. And maybe if it's out of stock, they say, "Can we substitute Myers brand or Equate or CVS brand or whichever one?" We want those references to pop up and compare and save and -- because you're already paying a premium, right, to get it delivered, and you're paying a premium in margins. So to us, if we do it right, it's a big opportunity. And if we don't do it at all, it could actually slow our growth. But if done right, it could be an accelerator because now in a recessionary period and even without a recessionary period, if you continue in those behaviors, you're paying a premium for your groceries, and this is a way to save money. We just got to make sure you're aware of it.
David Risinger
analystThat's great. That makes a lot of sense. So a couple of other questions. First, I wanted to touch on ProAir and then a wrap-up question. So with respect to ProAir, the 2 basic questions are, could you just put the historical ProAir sales in perspective so we know what to pull out when we're looking at the comps in the first half of '21 and then to normalize the growth in the generic Rx business? And what will it take for you to get the product back to market? What are the gating factors and potential timing?
Murray Kessler
executiveWell, your first question, it was roughly $150 million plus or minus. So I think it was like $45 million in the first quarter and $115 million, somewhere in that neighborhood, in the second quarter. And third quarter was only in for -- it will only be in for -- through the first -- I think first week or 2 of August. And then there'll probably be some offsets on the recall so you can sort of just wash away. I would say it's that first half impact. I guess fortunately, for us, that's when the base business of Rx was hardest hit by lockdown. So when you do your modeling, you're going to have to sort of take that out maybe, maybe because I don't know yet. But if we're not able to get it back to market quickly, then you would have that negative hit in the first half but offset to some extent by a normalized people going back to their doctors' offices on the base business. But to me, the -- not to keep going back to the same thing, but I find it remarkable that we could have a hiccup on something as big as albuterol, and our consumer business completely cover it. We may not have to -- and make a conservative assumption or a -- maybe it's not even conservative, just make an assumption that we're not going to have any more albuterol for the balance of the year and still hold guidance, which means we have to be killing it on the consumer businesses, right? So gating factors, the issue is there were certain level -- amount of these devices at a level that we deem too high, that we're clogging. And despite years of testing, despite approval from the FDA, we saw a level of complaints that was unacceptable to us, and it wasn't coming down. They are hard at work at doing 2 things: executing the recall, and second, determining the root cause of what is causing the clogging. It's a different device than the national brand that's out there. It's got a little bit different cleaning instructions. I can say that -- I will tell you that when consumers send back the devices to us and it's cleaned properly, we haven't had one that didn't work. So I guess I could go from a range of -- we determined that it was just lack of understanding on how to clean the device, et cetera, all the way to there's an issue with the device, and there is full testing under -- dispensing tests underway and everything that's involved with properly diagnosed. And I just don't know the answer at the moment. If it is on one end of the spectrum, we get back rather quickly. If it actually takes a change in the device, it will take longer. But I pulled it from the numbers right now.
David Risinger
analystGot it. Very helpful. And then just to wrap up. There is the potential for tax overhang removal. Could you talk about that optionality?
Murray Kessler
executiveWell, yes. Again, it's complicated. We haven't actually gotten into the fight with the Irish revenue department yet of whether the tax is correct or now. What this first 1.5 years has been about is a judicial review of whether or not they kind of broke the rules and violated the legitimate expectations law, which said we should have been able to rely on the prior tax filings for the company we bought because this is a -- audit of Elan's books that -- before we owned them by Irish revenue. But they had dozens of prior transactions, very similar, all handled in the same way and taxes, IP. There was a Shannon certificate process that went through when the company was certified for this type of tax treatment and -- in the business it was in, and nothing changed. And all of a sudden, 5 years later, they came and we say, they violated our legitimate expectations. They have been previously audited. We relied on those audits. That all was argued a few months ago. We've been expecting an answer by the fall and we could win it outright if we -- we think our argument was very strong. If we win it out right, it's gone. If not, then we start the normal tax appeal process and say why it was proper to be IP and have all those arguments. And we believe that it was done correctly. Not only did they not have a right to do it, but it was also done correctly and the way they treated it was incorrectly. Anywhere along those -- that process, people always ask me, "Would you settle or wouldn't you settle?" The question is -- the answer is we act in the best interest of shareholders. So -- but it hadn't been ripe enough. And we'll see if it -- as it gets into actual course, that's when cases start to -- lawyers start to really have dialogues. When people see other sides, arguments, et cetera, they start to come to the table. So I'm not opposed to it as long as it is in the best interest of shareholders, and we'll see. But on the other hand, I still operate from a position that we think they're incorrect and that Elan file properly.
David Risinger
analystExcellent. Great. Well, we need to wrap it up. Sorry for the technological disruptions. We really appreciate you joining and sharing all that perspective and that color on the business. So thank you again and have a great rest of the week.
Murray Kessler
executiveThanks, Dave.
David Risinger
analystAppreciate it.
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