PetroNor E&P ASA (PNOR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us on this webcast presentation of the Q4 results for PetroNor. My name is Eyas Alhomouz. I'm the Chairman of the company. However, before we get started on to the presentation, I would like to spend a moment to address what is probably on the back of everyone's mind today, which is the events of this past December that have led to the appointment of Jens Pace as our interim CEO. As many of you know, individuals related to the company were detained by Økokrim last December and are being investigated for corruption. Naturally, many of our investors have had many questions on this. As a company, we had made a few announcements since then. We have informed the market of what we know and have been cooperating fully with the authorities. Unfortunately, however, we are still not privy to the details of the process or the case with Økokrim. However, Økokrim has confirmed that the investigation is focused on the individuals and that neither PetroNor nor any of its companies are charged. The PetroNor board and to ensure continuity of the business, has responded to the situation and appointed Jens Pace as an interim CEO. Jens is not a stranger to PetroNor. He comes to this position from a Non-Executive Director role on the Board and has previously served as the CEO for African Petroleum and PetroNor until February 2020, exactly 2 years ago. Jens and the team have been able to pick up from where Knut had left, as you will see in the next few slides and have ensured continuity of the business and have preserved shareholder value. That is about what I can say on the matter today. We must let the process take its course and focus on running and growing our business. Let me now hand the floor over to Jens and the team, who will give you an update on our performance this past quarter and some more decent business news. Jens?

Thank you, Eyas, for the introduction. And while I would obviously wish that my appointment was in different circumstances, I'm pleased to be back in the role of the CEO for the time being. I'm here with Claus Frimann-Dahl, PetroNor's Chief Technical Officer. And it's our job today to present the fourth quarter results for PetroNor. I need to draw your attention to the first slide, which is a standard disclaimer. I'll let you read that at your leisure. So the fourth quarter, and our job here is made much easier today by the fact that it's the best quarter in terms of financial performance in the company's history. Production has been improving as forecast during the third quarter report, and we're at an average over the quarter of 3,700 barrels a day, which is up by about 300 barrels from the previous quarter. And because we were able to have a double lifting because we've built up inventory during fourth quarter, we've realized the best price through the year. We've seen a rising price realization through the year. So we took a double lifting with the highest price, which was an average of $76 a barrel. And I know we have short memories in this industry, and that seems low compared to where we are today. But nevertheless, it was a good price for 2021. The infill drilling program in the Congo has been progressing as planned. And at these levels of production and realization, it's totally self-funded within the Congo subsidiary. There are several events that have happened since the fourth quarter. Most notably perhaps PetroNor successfully completed the re-domicile process to Norway from Australia and uplisted on to the main list of the Oslo Stock Exchange. You can see in the photograph, although we weren't allowed a bell ceremony because of renovations to the Oslo [ WOS ], we did accelerate and that's me holding the bell, which was rung on Monday this week. It was a complicated process to do the re-domicile, and we're dealing with different jurisdictions and a regulatory system that was changing even as we did it. And you will probably have been noticing all the very many press releases and things like that as we went through the process that we were subject to various delays and things like that. But it feels good to have got that done, and I believe we're the first company that's ever achieved that. A couple of other points to bring up is we received the government approval for the AJE transaction with Panoro in Nigeria. This has been 2 years coming. And so I could forgive anyone for perhaps losing heart that, that was ever going to arrive. But we have got that now, and so we have the path cleared to complete the transaction and to get on with what we want to achieve for the AJE redevelopment. And then finally, we have signed a new lifting agreement with the national oil company of Abu Dhabi, ADNOC trading for our Congo production. This is -- we're very pleased with this, which is a strategic arrangement with ADNOC trading, which we hope will lead to their involvement in other business down the road. The lifting agreement gives us provision for monthly income based on entitlement production with a balancing payment on a physical lifting, which happens about once a quarter, as you know. So it's a very positive development for the management of our cash flow. So just a quick summary of the portfolio across PetroNor's business here. So the production base is in the Congo and is operated by Perenco. And our net is about 16.8% and it's high-margin production, which affords us around 3,600, 3,700 barrels a day. The redevelopment project in Nigeria, I've just mentioned, AJE, its completion scheduled for the deal in the coming months. It's a gas -- largely gas development with a strong environmental profile because we would be developing gas for a local market and displacing the use of diesel in power generation and that sort of thing. So we see this as a very positive project and one where we can add a lot of value as well. And then we have a number of licenses along the Atlantic margin in Gambia and Guinea Bissau and with significant exploration potential. I think the industry has turned its back on exploration in Africa for a little while, but it's back with a sparkle really since last year with ENI discovering resources in Cote d'Ivoire and now 2 significant announcements of discoveries in offshore Namibia. So we have high hopes for this portfolio as well. You can see our net metrics here of about nearly 21 million barrels of 2P reserves, 3,700 barrels a day in net production and a significant number of 2C resources, which shows there's a pipeline of development opportunities in the Congo flowing through to additional production. And when we complete the AJE field, we'll add significantly to the 2C resources there as well. And our competent person's report on the exploration potential obviously shows a significant scale of a multibillion barrel potential. If you look at the numbers here, and you can see the fourth quarter had higher average gross daily production and this has been an improving trend through the year. We had some issues with logistics and COVID-related issues during the middle of the year. And so we've entered the year on a strong piece of production, which is a good entry into 2022. The volumes sold during the quarter were nearly 320,000 barrels, and the average price was, as I said, earlier, $76 a barrel. You can see the flow through to the numbers at the bottom, but the EBITDA was $24.4 million for the quarter. So a very strong quarter for PetroNor, and you can see it's significantly above the previous quarters in the year. Again, some more numbers here from our balance sheet. I think really rather than kind of run through this, you've seen the report and you can go through the footnotes, if you wish. The thing that I'd draw my eye to is that the bottom line here, we've reduced our net paying -- interest-paying debt by significant number through the course of the year. We're down at just over $13 million now. And our cash balance in the company is nearly $32 million. So a very positive end to the year in respect to that performance. Looking forward now, we have a high level of activity in the coming years. Obviously, as Claus will review in just a minute here, there's a continuous program of infill drilling and workovers to maintain and increase the production in PNGF Sud in Congo. We have a right to negotiate the award of a license alongside PNGF Sud, which is called is PNGF Sud Bis. We've been saying that the completion of negotiations will happen imminently in each year since I've been with the company. We -- the reason that this hasn't been progressed is really because of the huge number of other opportunities for investment in the fields that we have already under license. But we expect that the operator Perenco will reengage our negotiations for Bis in the coming year, and we would be looking at the possibility of a pilot program to develop the resources there in 2023. In AJE, we are not on the license yet, but we hope to be during the -- in the next month or so. And we're looking at a redevelopment there, replacing the existing FPSO and a development focused largely on realizing the value of the gas and condensate that has not been the focus up to now. And most of the production has been on the liquids side. And so we're looking at a more complete use of the discovered resources and to get value for the gas development as well. So we will be discussing that with partners in the next -- the upcoming meetings and engaging them in a planning for the development that we'll bring forward there. In the exploration portfolio, we have an extension for the license option on Gambia A4 until October this year. We are in a farm-out process with -- for that license, of that license option and Guinea-Bissau as well, and we're in conversations about putting a farm out together on both of those licenses. We would ideally like to be in a situation where we are planning wells through the course of this year to be drilled in 2023. One other point to mention is the Senegal arbitration that continues, but will come to a conclusion in the course of this year. So we will have a result from that dispute resolution mechanism. We have a team that's dedicated to M&A activity. And those of you who have been following the company will have seen in the media, we've been involved in a number of bids through the course of the last 2 years. We've not bring one home yet, but we are in several what I would call off-market conversations at the moment which I am confident will lead to further activity. So we are very committed to maintaining that effort and progressing those conversations. I think with that, I'm going to hand over to Claus, who will take you through some of the details of the PNGF Sud and other parts of the portfolio. Thank you. Claus?

Thank you, Jens, and good morning, everyone. I'm starting with this PNGF snapshot, which shows that totally, we have been producing 468 million barrels out of the more than 2 billion barrels in place in the 6 fields of PNGF. That constitutes about only 23% recovery factor. We're currently producing from 67 active producing wells across 5 fields. And if I can draw your attention to the polygon, the red polygon showing 6 fields that includes also one, the smallest one to the left, Tchibeli Northeast where in December, we announced an upgrade of resources to reserves in that field. Yes. On -- in the middle field there, that's the Litanzi field where we started infill drilling, and I'll update you on that. That will be followed by the development drilling of the mentioned Tchibeli Northeast. And then again, to Tchibeli, which is the leftmost field. The right bottom field is Tchendo. That will follow with development drilling in -- or infill drilling rather in 2023. And the top 2, which actually constitute the largest in-place volumes in the license is the Tchibouela and Tchibouela East, where we're currently undergoing G&G studies to map out the development potential for those fields going forward. On the top right, you see the production profile, which is now updated with the Tchibeli Northeast reserve revision, and that has had the effect that you see compared to the dotted line that it has also accelerated the production due to drilling on that field. We've had a solid production and resource development in the period that we've been on the license with year-on-year increase in production, with the exception of the dip in 2021 for reasons which I'll come back to in a minute. But we do expect that 2022, we'll see a solid production increase where we expect production of more than 26,000 barrels a day, 30% more or less increase from 2021. We do forecast that OpEx levels are at less than $11 per barrel as usual, which is then less than half of the OpEx level of the previous operator. On the right side, you see the reserves revision history in the period. Starting out with 2017, where we had 6.5 million net barrels to PetroNor. Reserves revisions constitute 11.2 million barrels in the period, including the Tchibeli Northeast reserves revision. In the period, we've produced 4.4 million net barrels. And as announced last year, we increased our working interest constituting 7.6 million barrels, taking us to a position at the end of 2021, where we have net 20.8 million barrels to PetroNor. Again, solid performance constituting more than 400% reserve replacement ratio in the period. This slide shows the daily production from the PNGF field in 2021. We -- as you can see, we had a solid exit rate, Q4 exit rate of 22,000 -- more than 22,000 barrels a day gross, net to PetroNor 3,700 barrels per day, a 10% increase from the previous quarter. Average for the year, production was more than 20,600 barrels or 3,500 barrels net to PetroNor. We have embarked now -- well, I'll just comment on the Q2 performance there. You see we suffered production in Q3 in part Q3 due to logistical issues on getting production equipment into the country. That's mentioned before. But those problems have now been resolved, as you can see from the increased production where we've increased our workover activity in Q3 and Q4 and ending up with that strong exit rate or entry rate into 2022. In November, we started our infill drilling program with the first of 17 wells infill drilling and development drilling. Status on that is that we have part batched drilled for Litanzi wells. We've completed the top hole section in for them. We have successfully completed the reservoir section also in the first well, and we are currently on the second 12 and a quarter inch section planned through the reservoir. Following that, we will complete those wells and put them on production. And hopefully, we will see production benefits from that already late this month. This slide shows the effect, of course, of the investment program that we are currently doing. A solid production increase is expected, and we hope that during the year, we will touch 30,000 barrels a day gross on PNGF. We, as I said, have started with Litanzi drilling, which is 2 producers and 2 injectors. That will be followed by the Tchibeli Northeast development drilling on 2 producers in that field. Then Tchibeli also with 2 producers and 2 injectors, and then Tchendo, the infill drilling on this field will probably start in 2023 with the first 7 of a total 14 available drilling slots or having been added to that platform. The total gross investment program is some $350 million, a significant amount, but still, that's less than $10 per new reserves added. As Jens mentioned, we have received the long-awaited approval of the AJE transaction from the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, which it is now called the previous -- the former DPR. We expect to complete this transaction with Panoro by the end of April, as announced in January. We do see significant unlocking potential from this asset where we want to produce gas, condensate and oil to this region of Nigeria. AJE is strategically located very close to Lagos like no other field, and it's also where we intend to land the gas onshore right next to the West African gas pipeline where that gas comes from offshore to onshore. That will -- has a potential of solving a lot of the energy situation in this part of the country close to Lagos, which today is dependent on several thousand diesel generators to provide power to the area. The gas from AJE will replace a lot of that power generated on diesel to a much more environmental friendly fuel solution. In addition to LPG being extracted from the gas, that will replace something as simple as wood burning that they do use for cooking today. And as the UN and others have defined gas is an important transition fuel for Africa, it's supported by the UN sustainability goals. And we see this as a tremendous ESG project for AJE license and for PetroNor. Finally, our exploration portfolio in the West African exploration hotspot, the MSGBC Basin, as it's called, where, as Jens mentioned, significant discoveries have been made along the Western African margin. Including the close discovery -- significant gas discoveries by BP/Kosmos, which will venture into LNG. Right north of our A4 license in the Gambia, we see the Sangomar development being operated by Woodside expected to come on stream in mid-2023. On our own licenses, we've made significant progress in the Guinea-Bissau on the well planning, which is coming up. And in Gambia, we've had our A4 license option extended to 18th October of this year. And we are in good discussions with international oil companies across this portfolio. Our licenses contain multiple projects, each prospect being -- prospects -- each prospect being more than 200 million barrels recoverable, and both of them contain attractive fiscal terms. And with that, I would like to give the word back to Jens, who will do a recap of our Q4 events.

Thank you, Claus. So this is our final slide. And really, it repeats some of the messages that you've heard in the previous discussion. So the best quarter in terms of financial performance in the company's history, improving production, so a good entry rate into 2022. Rising prices throughout the year and continuing obviously into 1Q, and the infill drilling program, which we hope will add to that production going ahead as planned. Re-domiciling the company to Norway and list up -- listing to the main stock exchange, we think is going to be a benefit to the company. It allows us to start to simplify the whole corporate structure, the listing on the main stock exchange, we believe, it will present a better profile for investors. And so we think that this will strengthen our position in the capital markets generally. Government approval on AJE finally now means that we can start moving forward with our plans there. And I think a significant contract for us in this lifting agreement with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, which we think is going to make our cash flow from Congo more predictable, and it's a relationship that we hope will be something we can use elsewhere in our business as well. So I think a good set of organic growth opportunities, and we're still very much looking for the M&A deals to significantly add to the company reserves and production. We've maintained a very ambitious target out there, and we're working hard to deliver that. So thank you very much, and I'm happy to take questions. And I hope that some have been flowing through as I've been talking I forgot to mention that we would be taking questions at the end as normal.

So that concludes the presentation, and we will now move over to the question-and-answer part, Q&A part of the session and webcast. And interim CEO, Jens Pace, how would you sum up the quarter?

Well, it's -- it will be defined, unfortunately, by the situation that Eyas described at the front end of this presentation with the detention of the -- my predecessor. I'm very proud of the way the Board has responded to that situation, and I think the underlying health of the business is really what I would like to define the quarter by rather than those events. And you can see that the numbers that we realized during 4Q and the way that 2022 is shaping up that there is strong health for the business. Major institutions are continuing to do business with us, and we are signing new contracts. So I think the health of the company is sound going forward.

And this is the first time reporting as a Norwegian company listed on the main list of the Oslo Stock Exchange. And why was this an important transition for PetroNor?

I think it was always a little unwieldy in having an Australian-registered company listed in Oslo. It expanded the size of our Board significantly because of the need to comply with the requirements for directors in both of those locations. And also there are regulatory changes to the way overseas companies can trade their shares on the Oslo Stock Exchange. So we had to address the situation. I think it's also been an opportunity for us to completely refresh our code of conduct and related policies to a Norwegian governance model. So I think it's been a very positive exercise for the company to go through. This was work that we knew we had to do, but we wanted to do it as part of the re-domicile process so that we could be aligned with the Norwegian governance model. And as we stand here today, we have strong independent directors in the Board here in Norway with a set of policies that are very much aligned to a Norwegian model. And I think listing on the main exchange on the main list on the Oslo Stock Exchange as well will have benefits for investors going forward.

The oil price has been high entering this year as well. What are your expectations for 2022?

Well, I think that we're seeing continued good production. And so you can do the math yourself from looking at the Q4 numbers and seeing what the prices have done since the end of the year into this year. And so it should be a very positive quarter as well.

We have other questions coming in, and one of our viewers want to know how many liftings do you expect in Q1?

We've typically been running with about a lifting every quarter. Q3 last year was an exception. And so that was why we had an inventory buildup and had 2 liftings during 4Q. I expect we'll be going back to a lifting a quarter again. And that will be something that we will be discussing with ADNOC. But I would just emphasize, because of the new lifting agreement, we still get cash flow on a monthly basis based on our entitlement production. And then the lifting is something that just allows for a rebalancing of that.

Has positive oil price development as well as recent discoveries in Namibia led to the increased interest in farm-out discussions?

We've been pleased with the interest that we've been getting. And it does seem that exploration is back on the agenda, having really been not something that people wanted to talk about until recently. So the recovering prices -- and it's always the idea that others are having success on the margin that I think refocuses attention.

Have you any plans to add a company like Senate to PetroNor as working in the same area and proven in produce electricity by gas?

We haven't got any plans for producing electricity at the moment, but it is an option that we're considering in relation to the AJE development. It may be something that helps add value to that production stream once we've decided how we're going to develop that project.

When do the company plan dividend?

I think that dividends are something that you consider when you don't have good opportunities to reinvest and grow the company. And that's the situation we're in at the moment. We have a fantastic pipeline of opportunities to invest in, and I think that the -- we were looking to increase the scale of the company significantly through our M&A activity before we would consider going to be a dividend company.

Who will be the operator of AJE and why is Panoro selling?

The operator is very clear. The operator is the indigenous partner who would be our partner YFP. That doesn't change. We will be a technical service provider. It's essentially a technical partner within that partnership and within the JV that we've announced with YFP. So we expect to have a strong role in delivering that project. But the operator by the nature of the license is maintained as YFP, and that's the way it should be.

Do you have any plans or are you thinking about hedging the oil price?

We're not hedged at the moment. We consider it in our Board meetings on a regular basis. We don't have any plans as such at the moment.

I see we have some questions coming in regarding the Økokrim case. And I think it's -- we should refer to the beginning of today's webcast. This will also be made available after the session and the Chairman commented on the Økokrim case in his introduction today. Let's see if we have any more questions. I think that is it for now. Jens?

Very good. Thank you for your attention and look forward to presenting the results for 1Q when we do that.

Thank you, everyone.