Piraeus Bank S.A. (TPEIR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Costantino, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Piraeus Financial Holdings conference call and live webcast to present and discuss Piraeus Group 9 months 2022 financial results. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Piraeus' Financial Holdings CEO, Mr. Christos Megalou. Mr. Megalou, you may now proceed.

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's conference call on our 9-month 2022 financial results. This is Christos Megalou, Chief Executive Officer, and I'm joined today by Theo Gnardellis, Chief Financial Officer; and Chrys Berbati, Head of Business Planning and IR. Today, we have released a very strong set of 9-month results. The key highlights of which are set out on Slide 4. Piraeus is achieving steady business loan growth, high risk-adjusted profitability, continued cost discipline and accelerated capital buildup. We report normalized earnings per share of EUR 0.28 for the 9 months of 2022 upgrading our full year target for the second time to above EUR 0.37. We are now at 8.7% NPE ratio with ongoing negative formation and strong increase of coverage, which is now around 50%. The 9 months 2022 period recorded EUR 386 million, normalized profitability excluding all one-off items with interest income and fee income growing strongly, while costs kept decreasing. We have generated a 9% normalized return on tangible book value and the 9% is now the revised forecast for the full year with risks to the upside. Our fully loaded CET1 ratio is at 10.7% with run rate ahead of our year-end target, which we are upgrading to exceed the previous guidance of circa 11%. We have grown our loan book by EUR 2.3 billion in the 9 months, also beating the year-end target of EUR 2 billion for the second time with increasing yields. On Slide 5, we present the quarterly evolution in 7 key performance indicators. The improvement is drastic across the board for both balance sheet and P&L KPIs. I would like to highlight the 200 basis points improvement of cost to core income ratio in the quarter -- in the third quarter, and the strengthening of our NPE coverage and fully loaded CET1 capital position by 330 basis points and 120 basis points, respectively. Slides 6 to 13 illustrate the details of this improvement for the 7 KPIs while they also present run rate and guidance for the full year 2022. Slide 17 summarizes our forecast for the full year 2022 regarding profitability and capital adequacy both upgraded for the second consecutive quarter. We put the revised forecast for year 2022 also in the broader context of our 2021 Sunrise plan and the 2022 initial budget. The message, I believe, is clear, we set targets that are ambitious, one could have even say optimistic, and we consistently outperform pushing our franchise for more sustainable value. Switching gears, I'm happy to report that today, we have also announced the signing of the agreement for the sale of our Sunrise free NPE securitization of EUR 500 million gross book value for which we had applied for guarantee to the Hercules Asset Protection scheme last July. We are now putting all our efforts into delivery of our new plan for the fourth quarter of 2022. The performance of the past quarters and the strong finish of 2022, we take Piraeus into 2023 with strong capital buffers and a growing revenue pool, allowing us to withstand potential headwinds. In contrast to European peers, Greece remains on a path of economic growth in 2023, reflecting the different pace that the country finds itself in the economic cycle and its improved resilience and competitiveness. On the back of that, for 2023, we expect revenue tailwinds to outweigh any potential headwinds and therefore, continue to generate strong organic capital in the next year. Last, but not least, in light of the strong operating results again this quarter, we have updated the relative value analyzing -- analysis showcasing the significant upside for our current and future investors. This is presented in Section 2 of our presentation from Slide 20 to 27. With that, let's open the floor to take any questions you may have.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Sevim Mehmet with JPMorgan.

Just two questions for me, please. So first of all, on asset quality, while NPE formation is still negative and as Christos, you mentioned that next year, the benefits of the top line should outweigh the probably increase in cost of risk. Can I please ask what you're seeing already for cost of risk next year that maybe any color based on your interactions with your clients, on the corporate side as well as the retail side or any data available to you at this point in time? And secondly, on NII, I see that the TLTRO accrual actually or the benefit went into negative territory this quarter. And that looks slightly different than your peers. So I just wanted to check where the difference comes from. Or is it -- what would be the reason just behind that loss in TLTRO this quarter?

Thank you very much, Mehmet for the question. Let me cover the first part of your question and pass on the floor to Theo Gnardellis, our CFO, as well. First of all, I just wanted to let everybody know that we are very vigorously observing our portfolio and our exposures across the balance sheet of the bank. Looking not only to sectors that are considered to be more, let's call it, vulnerable to possible headwinds like mortgages and consumer, but also small business SME and large corporate. It's a very analytical work that we are doing with our risk management and our risk colleagues and finance. And up to now, we do not observe any significant deterioration in our existing portfolios in our performing book for the time being. As far as next year is concerned, we will be coming at the beginning of the year with our projection for the year. But so far, I would like to say so good. Passing on the floor to Theo.

So Mehmet, as Christos mentioned, the cost of risk of this year, what we're seeing on the ground pretty stable things. We might see a little bit of an upscaling of the number in Q4 and also a view of coverage evolution. But as we also mentioned, we're not seeing anything in '23 that would jeopardize the profitability in the organic capital generation. We are doing the budget right now. We will have a very detailed guidance in early Q1. To your TLTRO question, this has to do with the approach that one takes when one calculates the cost during a particular quarter. The approach that we are following has to do with the period by which we calculate the average cost. We take the deposit facility rate as of the end of the quarter, which was EUR 0.75, and we project that throughout the lifetime of the TLTRO, thus calculating an effective rate with negative rates from the inception of TLTRO until its maturity at almost 0%. We know that everything gets recalibrated on November 22. As a result, have we done it differently, we probably would be able to report today a higher number of about EUR 15 million higher than what we are showing today. But in Q4, the bill comes for everyone and everything will close. So it's something that we have not reported in Q3 will come in Q4.

Right. That's very helpful. So just on that last point, basically, that would mean that you have front-loaded some of the rate impact already compared to your peers, right? Or the difference is less visible quarter-to-quarter?

Let's just say that if we follow the different approach to calculating the cost of TLTRO for Q3, we would be showing in this quarter higher NII by about EUR 15 million. But as I said for everybody, everything will close in Q4.

The next question is from the line of Alevizakos Alevizos with Axia Ventures.

Well done on this set of results. The first question is on CET1 capital. [ Currently ] increase is very good. So I was wondering whether you could actually now give us some color, what you expect for 2023 as well because now you moved everything a bit faster. And then my second question is on the margin growth. I can see that the margin growth has been quicker on the retail exposure, around the corporate exposure. I was wondering is that due to timing? Will we see the corporate exposure is also increasing in Q4 faster?

So as we said, we're doing the budget right now, and we will come in early Q1 with detailed guidance. But that being said, the organic capital generation seems to be intact as per the current run rate and potentially even higher with upside risk with safer '23. So a lot of work has been done organically and inorganically to enhance the CET1 in '22. This trajectory will continue in '23 at the same or a higher pace, but more -- allow us to come back to you and revert with more accurate numbers later on. As far as the timing of the retail, obviously, it has to do with the repricing and the timing of the repricing of installments. The retail is operating at a mortgage book on a monthly installment that reprices on the 1-month Euribor every month, while lots of corporate exposures are repricing on 3-month Euribor at 3 months installments. That's basically the reason why you see this difference, which was very expected.

Okay. And if I may add one last question. You didn't upgrade the target for the full year lending expansion, which you are already above anyway. I was wondering whether you can give some color about the full year and then whether you've already got a strong pipeline going into 1H next year?

We do have a strong pipeline. We expect, of course, to close the year higher than the EUR 2.3 billion, but we are observing right now as net-net expansion of our performing book. We estimate that the pipeline for next year will continue. Also helped by the RRF, which is kicking in with a lot of interest from the market. We see quite a lot of credit demand going forward. We have already finalized our first tranche RRF, and we are working now for the second tranche, and we are working for projects of total value of around EUR 3.5 billion. So positive for next year -- going into next year.

The next question is from the line of Memisoglu Osman with Ambrosia Capital.

Congrats on very strong results. A couple of things on my side. I noticed the securities book was slightly down to flattish. Any color on what your plans there would be my first one. And then fees have been particularly impressive. Any color on that for Q4 and beyond, would be helpful again. And then finally, deposit costs have risen a bit in percentage terms, at least. What is the outlook there? Are you seeing any shift to time deposits, particularly?

Osman, the security book, a static picture, as you said quarter-on-quarter, very good yielding, a book that is yielding on a quarterly basis now of more than EUR 60 million, not including swap revenue, we are also making in our NII. Going forward, we are active amortized cost buyers with very attractive rates right now in the Republic and other sovereign. There will be a, mind I would say, expansion of the book over the coming months, enhancing the NII benefit of the book even further. And as said, on an NII play, amortized cost only. On the fees, it was a very strong quarter on fees. We are constantly outperforming all expectations. I have to say that loan origination drives directly and indirectly a big part of that performance. So as loan origination and expansion continues, fees will also continue. So we have reached a very good fee productivity numbers at par, I would say, with a good practice also across Europe. But -- and we expect that to stay. As far as to your question on deposit costs, well, so far, the uplift that you're seeing, I have to say, is mostly coming from USD deposits and FX deposits. We have not seen a substantial -- any substantial growth on the euro deposits right now is the -- obviously, the large majority of the book, nor have we seen a migration from currency month to time deposit yet. Both of these phenomena are expected to happen especially as the DFR has increased and continues to increase. And we know that the million dollar question or a multimillion dollar question is by how much. The guidance for this, we can -- we will bring you with the completion of our budget and update on the investor community early in Q1.

Osman, one more word on fees. As you have seen -- as you can see in our presentation, the fee pool is increasing across the board. And that shows the value of the franchise, so we have financing fees, investment fees, transaction fees and the rental income increasing quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. We expect this trend to continue.

The next question is from the line of David Daniel with Autonomous Research.

Congratulations on the results. The first one is just on TLTRO. I understand your comments on the P&L side, but I'm just interested to hear your thoughts on early repayment, whether you plan to and what that might mean for LCR? I've got one clarification just on your CET1 bridge. There's a 20 basis points that's attributable to reserves and regulatory adjustments. If you could just give us a bit more information on what that is that would be great. And then finally, just on MREL. I'm just interested on whether you'll be looking to markets in Q4 or whether we should think of you waiting until in the year and how you plan to issue it to build up that MREL stack?

Daniel. So TLTRO, after the 22nd of November, any TLTRO exposure, one would hold, is P&L neutral and liquidity neutral for us. The LCR repayment or not would not be affected at least not negatively. We have noticed and we understand that many European banks are planning to do substantial repayments. We are assessing this. It is an option for us. Piraeus Bank has the biggest deposit book in the country. We are substantially cash positive taking out all Euro system money. So therefore, it is an option that is on the table kind of, I would say, a neutral decision for us. We will assess after the 22nd of November and execute appropriately in December. To your CET1 question, yes, this is a -- in our CET1 calculations in the past beyond the IFRS books, there have been some CET1 reductions. That has to do with various technical reasons and legacy situations with the quality of the orders of the book. As the balance sheet has been sanitized dramatically and with the cleansing of particular exposures as well, the CET1 deductions are no longer necessary. And this is the adjustment that we have reported. It's a series of -- it's multiple things. It's not one thing that you're seeing there. I would say a reassessment of the CET1, cleansing a lot of legacy details that the balance sheet had in the past. To your question about MREL. Obviously, this substantial capital uplift is, I would say, condensing a lot. Our MREL needs -- our short-term MREL needs, we have a guidance to meet -- the interim target obviously has been substantially met since the 1st of January '22. There is a guidance to convert to our final target by the end of '25, so we intend to be meeting that guidance. The gap that we have is not that substantial. We will evaluate the situation and cover it with an issuance in the short to midterm, I would say.

The next question is from the line of Butkov Mikhail with Goldman Sachs.

I have two questions. The question #1 is on the dividend. I know that your guidance invites the dividend from the year, not this year. But based on your recent and latest any kind of discussions and conversations with the Bank of Greece, can you share any of -- like what's the view of the bank on the reinstatement of dividends? That's the question #1. And the question #2 is on your NII sensitivity. Correct me if I'm wrong, but in your sensitivity you mentioned that the assumption 20% EBITDA for deposit repricing in the response to rate hikes. What EBITDA do you assume for the later rate hikes? And basically, how do you maybe -- can you provide some color how did you come up to this EBITDA of 20%? Why not 30%, for example, or 40%?

Thank you. On dividend, we will be assessing the situation in 2023. And we will be coming forward with informing the market on the basis of the buffers that are being developed, profitability as it comes forward and making sure that we deliver on all metrics that make sense when you are looking for dividend distribution. We are hopeful that 2023 is going to be a year that we will be in a position to continue generating value for the bank and for our shareholders. And we will be informing the market accordingly as we develop our plan for next year. On NII sensitivity, Theo will respond.

So on NII sensitivity, there are three forces always in play when one wants to look at how NII will evolve over the coming short and mid-term periods. One is obviously your perspective and assumption on the deposit facility rate of the euro. Another one is on loan spreads and how this will define the dollar contract and which sectors. And the third one, as you mentioned, is the cost of deposits. And the cost of deposit will be increasing on the time depot in particular with -- especially since we have crossed the 1% mark. We are in our budgeting right now, the early thoughts, I would say, speak that anything above 1% between 60% and 70% will be passed through to a terminal time deposit cost rate. Overall, though, the three forces seem to be calculating to higher net interest margins. So that's why going forward, we are looking at an uplift of the top line. The amount of which and what that means for returns on accounting capital, et cetera, again, we will speak more in early Q1.

The next question is from the line of Nellis Simon with Citi.

My first question would be on the 59% growth in rental income year-on-year. Could you just unpack that for me? And a question on costs. I guess going forward, given all the inflationary pressure, do you see any headwinds on the cost front? Or have you kind of secured labor packages, et cetera, that kind of give you confidence you can control costs going into '23 and '24?

Simon, rental growth, primarily driven by the acquisition of Trastor. The majority stake that we have done early in '22. And therefore, we are now consolidating as of early '22 and hence the comparison that you are seeing. It's an incorporation of a very high-yielding real estate book that Trastor owns that contributes more than EUR 20 million on an annualized basis to the rental income and hence, the delta that you're seeing. On cost control, it's a very big agenda item for the bank and its P&L this year, despite inflationary pressures, we are looking at a 9-month to 9-month delta of about minus 4%. So it's a cumulative drop within this inflationary environment. Cost containment continues as we are -- we are continuing to reduce FTEs, an FTE reduction of about 700 FTEs is happening in '22. The trend is also expected to continue. So that together with many other factors, we're expected to defend the cost base and continue reducing the cost to income.

Okay. I guess the rental income line of EUR 18 million is kind of a run rate. We can expect or that will continue to grow?

The investments on the real estate side, especially from the subsidiary are continuing. There will be a mild growth going forward given the strategy in place. Again, the numbers and the contribution of that, we can speak more for -- during the '23 guidance session.

The next question is a follow-up question from the line of Memisoglu Osman with Ambrosia Capital.

Yes. Just on the cost front, maybe I missed it. For next year, very broadly, I know you're working on your plans. But given that you had some moving parts in terms of opportunities to reduce cost, but also the inflationary environment, how should we think that it all shakes out and particularly with VES picking up. Is it possible to give a bit more color on whether we should expect like a flattish OpEx line next year?

That's the ambition Osman, the flattish -- close to flattish, I would say, situation for 2023. It's -- again, it's against inflationary headwinds but working on multiple saving opportunity on the admin cost level that have started to bear fruit already in '22 and the effort continues in '23 as well as continuous [ safety ] reduction.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Nigro Alberto with Mediobanca.

One is on risk-weighted assets. If you can confirm that we still need to see the risk-weighted asset release that relates to the [ risking ] process and can you remind us the amount between it to see? And the second one is on cost. If you are planning to book any restructuring costs in Q4 and maybe also for next year?

Alberto, to your RWA question, upon completion of the transaction of Sunrise fee, there will be a relief of something close to EUR 200 million. We are also working on synthetic securitizations that we have guided in the capital page of almost EUR 1 billion that would also nominally reduce the RWA against an expansion of the RWA that will happen from the loan expansion that's going on right now. But generally, nominally, it will be a drop in RWA figure in Q4. It's part of the capital guidance of Q4. Restructuring costs, yes, as I said, we have booked in Q2. There was some booking in Q3. There will be an equivalent and a little bit higher booking most likely in Q4, depending on the uptake of the VES as this evolves. So I would say you can estimate another EUR 20 million to EUR 30 million, I would say, in Q4 as a restructuring cost charge.

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Megalou for any closing comments.

Thank you all for participating in our 9-month 2022 financial results presentation conference call. We look forward to discussing with you all physically or virtually during our corporate outreach program commencing as of next week. In addition to our participation in investor conference in the forthcoming period, we are also scheduling to be in the Athens Stock Exchange Day in London on the 28th and the 29th of November. And of course, we are scheduling an Investor Day to be held in London during Q1 of 2023, very similar to our event last April. In the meantime, I wanted to thank you very much for participating in our call and have all a relaxing weekend.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a good afternoon.