Pirelli & C. S.p.A. (PIRC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Pirelli's conference call in which Pirelli top management will present the company's 9-month 2024 financial results. A live webcast of the event and the presentation slides are available in the Investor Relations section of the Pirelli website. I remind you that the Q&A session will follow after the presentation. Now I would like to introduce Mr. Marco Tronchetti Provera. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, and good evening, ladies and gentlemen. The results of the first 9 months confirm the effectiveness of our strategy. We strengthened our high-value presence, thanks to the solid volume growth. The effectiveness of the internal levers, price/mix and efficiencies led to an improvement in profitability the highest among Tier 1 players. Finally, we reduced our debt and recorded positive cash generation in the third quarter as a result of efficient working capital management. This scenario remains uncertain and characterized by continuing geopolitical tensions, slowing demand from carmakers and volatility of raw materials. Despite these headwinds, we confirm all 2024 targets. Due to our position in high-value market segment with a mid-single-digit growth and thanks to the resilience of our business model. Connectivity and sustainability are the challenges on which we are building our future. Through our partnership with Bosch, we will bring the tiring to the era of connectivity and artificial intelligence. While on sustainability, we aim at consolidating our leadership. Our ambition decarbonization plan was validated last September by science-based target initiative, an international organization that defines and promote best practices in this field. And now I give the floor to Mr. Casaluci.

Thank you, Mr. Tronchetti, and good evening, everyone. Pirelli's performance in the first 9 months of 2024 confirms the effectiveness of our business model, plus 4.9%, the organic growth of our revenues driven by solid commercial performance with high value at 76%, an improvement of 2 percentage points compared to the same period of 2023. Adjusted EBIT at EUR 816 million, plus 4.3% year-over-year, with profitability at 15.7%, improving year-on-year. Net profit of EUR 371 million, stable, compared to the same period of 2023, and excluding 2020, 2022 patent box benefits accounting in Q3 2023. Negative net financial position of EUR 2.82 billion, down EUR 322 million compared to September 2023. In the first 9 months of 2024, net cash absorption before dividends amounted to EUR 357 million, an improvement compared to the same period of 2023 and in line with the usual seasonality of the business. The result achieved reflect the implementation of the key programs in the industrial plan. On the commercial front, we further strengthened our positioning in high value as well -- sorry, as we will see in the next slide. In the innovation program, we expanded the original equipment portfolio, mainly in electric and hybrid vehicles and higher rim sizes. We launched 5 new products for the car and 2 for the Motor & Cycling segment. And we are partnering with Bosch for Cyber Tyre development. As for the operations program, we achieved around 80% of the planned efficiencies for the year, offsetting the impact of inflation. In a scenario of general slowdown in the original equipment demand, we kept a careful inventory management. Finally, we are progressing on our decarbonization journey, and our targets were validated by science-based target initiative. Let us now look at the single programs in more detail. Let's start with the commercial program. Our distinctive positioning in high value allowed us to outperform the car market in the first 9 months of the year and the third quarter. More specifically, in the third quarter, growth in car above 18 inches, Pirelli plus 7% versus a market plus 3% was sustained in both channels. In original equipment, Pirelli plus 10% and market flat, our outperformance was driven mainly by China, where we benefit from a favorable comparison base and by the broadening of our exposure to Chinese premium manufacturers of electric vehicles. Thanks to this exposure we were able to offset the weakness of the demand from European premium carmakers in China. In the replacement channel, Pirelli plus 6% versus market plus 5%, growth was sustained also by the good performance of winter selling in Europe. Exposure to standard was reduced. Pirelli car volumes below 17 inches is minus 5% versus a basically flat market, where we are following a selective strategy. Within a general weakness of original equipment demand, really benefits from the diversification of its customer base in China. Over the past 3 years, we have enlarged exposure to local premium EV car makers which currently account for approximately half of our original equipment sales in China. We implemented a differentiated strategy with premium EV car makers such as Li Auto, Zeekr and NIO, we aim to size the opportunities of strong market expansions in the high realms and developed market tires. With other Chinese EV manufacturers, including AITO, MG, BYD, we follow a more selective approach, positioning ourselves in the high-end models. Pirelli's success lies not only in the strength of the brand, but also in its ability to meet the increasingly challenging demands of these carmakers in terms of project lead times and product characteristics such as low rolling resistance even at low temperatures to reduce the vehicle energy consumption, longer manage performance and extremely high breaking performance. In the innovation program, we continued to upgrade the regional product lines to meet different consumer needs. In Europe, we launched the Powergy Winter and Powergy All Season SF; 2 products designed for everyday mobility that guarantee high-quality standards for safety and driving comfort. In Asia, on the other hand, we launched the Scorpion MS, an all-season tire for premium and prestige SUVs that offers high durability and comfort, also suitable for off-road use and driving on snow. In addition, Pirelli's commitment to continuous product improvement was acknowledged by several specialists magazines such as Auto Bild, Tire Reviews and Al Volante which awarded Cinturato All Season SF3 as the Best All-Season 2024. Comparative tests highlighted the excellent driving performance in all weather conditions as well as the safety and comfort features. Let's now move to the partnership with Bosch, which is an important step in the development of Cyber Tyre as it enables the integration of tire sensors directly into the control systems of the car. The cooperation combines the cyber technology developed by Pirelli and the experience and technology of Bosch, the world's largest player in car control systems with the aim of improving vehicle performance and safety. The tires, the only point of contact between the vehicle and the ground provide data at all times on the condition of the road surface, the driver's driving style, the type of tire if winter, summer or all season and its tread wear . All these data based on software created by Pirelli and integrated with a control unit developed by Bosch, are processed in real time and transformed into comments that interact with vehicle dynamics, ABS, ESP, traction control. These commands make it possible to improve performance, safety and reduce environmental impact. With this collaboration, Pirelli and Bosch bring the tire into the era of connectivity and artificial intelligence. Currently, the cyber tyre technology integrated with the car's control systems is used on the Pagani Utopia Roadster, and we are working with other prestige and premium carmakers. Now let's look at the efficiency program, which in the first 9 months of the year generated benefits of EUR 108 million, in line with expectations and equal to about 77% of the annual target allowing us to offset inflation. In detail, the efficiencies come from the product cost, thanks to the adoption of new design programs such as design to cost and to virtualization, which allowed us to reduce development time by 30%. The SG&A project based on the rationalization of the supply chain, overheads and optimization of logistics. The organization project has benefits come from the digitization of internal processes and upskilling of personnel. And finally, from the manufacturing project which in line with expectations, generated half of the benefits expected in the year with the factory automation projects, electrification of the vulcanization phase and energy consumption efficiency. Finally, our decarbonization journey continues. The targets announced last March with Industrial Plan Update were approved by the Science-Based Targets Initiative, the international organization that defines and promotes best practices for reducing emissions. SBTi validated the long-term target of net 0 to 2040. The most challenging among tire makers in line with the Paris Agreement to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius. SBTi validated also the short-term decarbonization targets, which include by 2030, the reduction compared to 2018 of absolute greenhouse gas emissions Scopes 1 and 2 by 80% and of emissions from the purchase of raw materials, services and transport, Scope 3, by 30%. And I now give the floor to Mr. Bocchio. Thank you.

Thank you, Mr. Casaluci. Let's now analyze our results for the first 9 months of 2024. Sales amounted to approximately EUR 5.2 billion with organic growth of plus 4.9%, driven by solid commercial performance. The volume trend plus 2.2% in 9 months reflects the strengthening on car 18 inches and above and the gradual reduction of exposure on 17 inches and below, as already explained by Mr. Casaluci. Price mix, plus 2.7% was supported by increased exposure on high value and continued improvement in product mix. On the other hand, the impact of foreign exchange was negative minus 4.4%, reflecting the volatility of emerging market currencies. In the third quarter, organic growth of revenues was plus 5.5%, driven by good volume performance. It was equal to plus 3% in both car and motor bike segments. And price/mix, plus 2.5%, in line with the target for the year. As a reminder, in the second quarter, price/mix that recorded a plus 3.3% in benefited from a temporary improvement in region mix, now rebalanced and linked to the downturn in South America. In the third quarter, price/mix performance was driven mainly by product mix while channel mix reflected the good performance in original equipment. The foreign exchange impact in Q3 equal to minus 4.7% reflecting the volatility of emerging market currencies, particularly in South America and the weakness of the U.S. dollar. In the first 9 months of 2024, adjusted EBIT amounted to EUR 816 million, up 4.3% with a margin of 15.7%, improving year-on-year by 50 basis points, thanks to the contribution of internal levers. More specifically, the commercial performance contributed EUR 136 million, plus EUR 45 million the volumes and plus EUR 91 million the price/mix. Efficiencies equal to EUR 108 million covered inflation that were negative by EUR 109 million. Lower raw material costs equal to plus EUR 20 million, partially offset the negative exchange rate effect that was minus EUR 71 million. Finally, it was negative the impact of depreciation and amortization, minus EUR 18 million and other costs, minus EUR 33 million, mainly related to marketing, research and development activities and inventory reduction. In the third quarter, the adjusted EBIT margin stood at 15.9%, the highest profitability of the year, thanks to the solid commercial performance and to the lower ForEx impact. Let's now review the dynamics of the net profit for the first 9 months. The operating performance, whose dynamics has just been described, improved by EUR 33 million. nonrecurring costs and the result of our joint ventures in Asia Pacific, specifically in China and Indonesia also improved. Net financial expenses discounted a noncash impact of EUR 65 million related to hyperinflation. Finally, the tax trend, minus EUR 18 million reflects the benefits of the patent box amounting to approximately EUR 40 million included in Q3 2023. Net cash flow before dividends for the first 9 months of 2024 was negative for EUR 357 million, in line with the seasonality of the business and improved by about EUR 11 million compared to the first 9 months of 2023. Excluding the impact of heavy attack acquisition closed at the beginning of this year, the improvement is equal to EUR 34 million. Net operating cash flow was positive at EUR 33 million compared to minus EUR 31 million in 9 months 2023 and mainly reflects the operating performance, which improved compared to last year. CapEx of EUR 236 million; they were EUR 201 million in 9 months 2023, mainly for high-value activities, constant mix and quality improvement and to support the sustainability plan. While the working capital trend, minus EUR 799 million, that means plus EUR 77 million year-over-year is in line with the seasonality of the business and reflects the careful management of inventories with an incidence on sales at about 20% in reduction more than 1 percentage point compared to the first half of 2024, and the usual seasonality of trade receivables around 16% weighed on sales and trade payables around 23% weighed on sales. Net cash flow before dividends in Q3 was positive at EUR 162 million, essentially in line with Q3 2023, which was EUR 167 million despite higher CapEx EUR 92 million this quarter compared to EUR 78 million in Q3 2023, and higher increases in rights of use, EUR 48 million this quarter compared to EUR 28 million last year. The gross debt at group level in September 2024 amounted to approximately EUR 4 billion. Considering the financial assets of approximately EUR 1.2 billion, the net financial position amounts to about EUR 2.8 billion. In the third quarter, we completed the emission of a EUR 600 million sustainability-linked bond with a maturity of 5 years. The bond has a coupon of 3.875% and the yield of 3.95%. Based on this bond and available cash, Pirelli has repaid all the bank debt maturing in 2024 and in the first half of 2025. It is also worth noting that after September 30, Pirelli has repaid the remaining EUR 100 million bank debt maturing in 2025. As of September, sustainable finance continues to account for approximately 69% of the group's gross debt or 85% if we consider the debt at holding level. Our liquidity margin was approximately EUR 2.45 billion, of which EUR 1.5 billion in undrawn committed credit lines. It covers debt maturities until Q4 2028. Finally, the cost of debt calculated over the last 12 months stood at 5.15%, slightly down compared to June 2024, thanks to the reduction of debt in countries with high interest rates and the positive effects of the Central Bank's expansionary policies. And now I leave the floor back to Mr. Casaluci.

Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Bocchio. Let us now turn to the outlook for 2024. We confirm our expectations of a flat year-over-year car tire market, but with positive dynamics between high value and standard. High value is confirmed as the most resilient segment with demand growing mid-single digit, led by the replacement channel, especially in Europe, while in original equipment, growth will continue to be driven by Asia Pacific. For standard, we expect the demand to fall by 1% due to original equipment weakness because of a global car production reduction, stable on the other hand, the demand in the replacement channel. In this scenario, we confirm our strategy of gaining share in high value and decreasing exposure to standard. Based on the results achieved in the first 9 months and the outlook described, we confirm all targets for 2024. Revenues are expected at around EUR 6.7 billion, in line with August guidance midrange, with volumes at around plus 2%, with mid-single-digit growth in high value while the reduction of exposure to standard contains. Price/mix expected at around 2.5%, benefiting from continued improvement in product mix. ForEx between minus 4% and minus 3.5% in view of emerging currency volatility. Adjusted EBIT margin is confirmed at about 15.5%. CapEx of approximately EUR 400 million, about 6% of revenues dedicated to technology upgrades and plant automation, mix improvement and sustainability. Net cash flow before dividends expected between EUR 500 million and EUR 520 million due to operating performance and efficient working capital management. Net financial position of approximately EUR 1.95 billion with leverage expected at 1.3x compared to 1.56x in 2023. I now leave the floor to Mr. Tronchetti for the final remarks.

Thank you, Mr. Casaluci. The scenario that is emerging for the industry is highly challenging. Trade tensions between North America, China and Europe are likely to impact the economic growth and more specifically, the car industry. The many European North American carmakers are facing a reorganization phase with capacity cuts and the review of electric and hybrid development plans, while competition from new Chinese players is increasing. Tire Tier 1 players are revising their production presence focusing on profit boost, improving mix and competitiveness. In this scenario, we will continue to leverage our business model and competitive advantages: brand innovation and sustainability we continue to support our high-value leadership. We are expanding our premium customer base, consolidating partnerships with traditional OEMs and seizing growth opportunities with Chinese premium EV manufacturers. We have an already optimized production base that is less exposed to the risk of supply chain disruption, thanks to our local for local strategy. Finally, the digitization of processes, automation and electrification of factories, we continue to support our efficiency plans. These assets makes us confident in delivering our industrial plan and outperforming peers. This ends our presentation, and we may open the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Harry Martin, Bernstein. Mr. Martin, your line is open. May be you are on mute. We cannot hear you. The next question is from Michael Jacks, Bank of America.

Firstly, Pirelli currently has very little production in the U.S. What is your strategy if the new U.S. administration raises tariffs on tires from Mexico, Lat Am do you think you would be able to cover that through pricing? Or could you expand local production? Secondly, is there any more detail that you can provide about the basis for the Golden Power investigation announced late yesterday? And what are the possible outcomes if Sinochem is found to have contravening these rules? Would they be forced to sell their stake? Or are there possibly other remedies available? And then one final question, if I may. What are the early indications for Q4 for follow-through or sellout for winter tires?

Thank you. So starting with the question on Golden Power. These administrative procedures launched -- is launched for the possible breach by CNRC of the measures contained in the Golden Power legislation, specifically is on the measure to guarantee the absence of organizational and functional links between Pirelli and on the other hand, CNRC. The outcome is obviously in the hands of the Golden Power. So the CNRC, they declare they have all the elements to defend their position and then the Golden Power will take a decision. Mr. Casaluci for the others?

Yes. So on the production side, we -- as we said in the past, for us to grow in North America is a key priority. And as a consequence, we plan to increase our capacity -- production capacity in the region and also following our local-for-local strategy, the production that will support the growth in North America will be implemented in North America. Today, already 60%, more or less of our sales are supported by local production, both in -- with our plant in Mexico and our plant in Georgia, United States. And the remaining 40% is coming more or less half from Europe and half from South America. In the future, we plan to increase the percentage of local for local. As far as Q4 market, the expectation we have is for a slightly negative market. I would say, around minus 1% of the total market. But with the 18 inches up, so the highest part of the high value growing around 3%, so showing its resilience. This 3% will be in our expectation, similar and the replacement channel and the original equipment channel. The original equipment channel will be mainly driven by the growth in Asia Pacific and specifically in China, thanks to the growth of electric vehicle and also a favorable comparison versus last year. While similar to the third quarter, the growth of the High Value in the replacement channel that we do expect around plus 3% will be mainly driven by Europe even if the market performance of Europe will be strongly linked to the sellout season of the sell-out performance of winter season that will be related to the weather conditions. So far, October has been a good month in terms of sellout. So we are quite optimistic on the outlook of Europe in the fourth quarter of the year.

The next question is from Monica Bosio, Intesa Sanpaolo.

The first one is on the implied fourth quarter according to your guidance. In the fourth quarter, based on the guidance, the adjusted EBIT margin should stand at 14.5%, which is also below last year. I'm just wondering if maybe it could be too conservative or maybe it's because of the seasonality or because of the minus 1% of the market. Just your -- I just want to know if you take some caution after the strong results in the third quarter? My second question is on the replacement market in China. I saw that it showed some weakness over the last 2 months. If I'm not wrong, I would like to know what are your expectations for the replacement market in China. And if you can then share with us some color also on the inventories level? And the very last is on the current saturation rate, what's your current saturation rate?

So thank you for your questions. I will start with the profitability. The profitability of the EBIT margin of the Q4 is expected more or less in line with last year. And the difference versus the average profitability of the year is basically linked to the normal seasonality of the business, is that the sales in the Q4 accounts for roughly 22.5% of the total year. So it means that the absorption of the fixed cost over the last quarter normally stays below the average of the year. And let's also consider that we do expect a negative impact coming from raw material in the fourth quarter while in the first 9 months of the year, the overall impact of raw material has been slightly positive with already slightly negative in third quarter, and worsening in the last quarter of the year. Of course, we will target to do as much as possible and the opportunity to improve is there, but this will be also -- will be -- will depend also on the performance of the seasonal markets, like I mentioned before, the winter performance in Europe. The Chinese market, you are right, the performance of the replacement in the last 2 months has been negative. And we don't expect in the last quarter of the year to recover. And the replacement market we remain, in our view, slightly negative in the last quarter of the year in China. It will be more than compensated by the positive original equipment market of China. So we do expect in a way, negative channel mix coming from China, but keeping the performance on volume, thanks to the original equipment. The last question was related to the saturation rate. We confirm the saturation rate around 93% on the high value capacity and a bit below 90%, 87%, 86% on the global capacity. So more or less stable.

Okay. Sorry, just a squeeze. On the Chinese original equipment market. Overall, according to your indication, the original channel in the high value is expected to grow low single digit, but China is growing much more. Can you give us just a rough indication of the magnitude of the increase in the original equipment high-value segment in China?

In the last quarter of the year?

Last -- on the third, just as a piece of indication.

Yes. In the -- in both quarters, the total market in the regional equipment has been slightly negative or flat, but the high value, as you currently mentioned, is expected to grow in both quarters in low single digits. So I do expect plus 4%, roughly 4%, 5% in the last quarter of the year coming from China.

The next question is from Martin Harry, Bernstein.

Hopefully, you can hear me this time.

Yes, we can.

Great. The first question I have is on the outperformance in high-value replacement. Would you be able to break down the replacement market outperformance by mix. So potentially more exposure to Europe that's been growing faster versus the China market, which is smaller versus share gains within each market. The second question on the China OE business. I'm interested to know if the unit economics on those sales to the local Chinese players have any differences to legacy European and Western OEMs. Any comments that you have on pricing, payment terms, contract lengths would be interesting? And then the final question I had just on the manufacturing footprint. We've seen plenty of competitors shutting capacity in Europe and the U.S. in recent months? Are there any sites in the footprint where you aren't happy with performance levels today or alternatively, if you keep gaining volume share, will you need to add production capacity somewhere?

Well, thank you for your questions. Concerning the market on the replacement high value, I will try to deep dive by main regions. We do expect a total market in the high-value replacement full year, around 6% growth, as we said in the presentation. This 6% roughly, it will come from Europe with a growth of around 12%, mainly supported by good restocking phase in winter, but generally speaking, the marketing replacement is performing well, while the original equipment is not performing well, it's negative. Then we have North America with roughly 4% growth year-over-year in our estimation with a slowdown in the last part of the year, but anyhow, on the full year basis plus 4% and the Asia Pacific plus 3%. This is a deployment by market of the total 6% growth expected for the replacement high value. The original equipment performance in China in terms of -- of course, we don't disclose details on profitability, but I can tell you that in terms of payment terms, we are more or less aligned with the channel at a global level, while we see the average selling price is a bit better in China than the average because this is linked to our strategy. We started to partner with these carmakers a few years ago because they are basically -- the vast majority are new company, brand-new company. And so we started with a high-value strategy fully implemented. So we are producing tires for the upper end of the product portfolio, targeting 2021-inches tires, EV, of course, with specialties inside. And why we target this, of course, because we have the technology that allow us to gain share in this part of the segment and support them in the introduction of high-performance cars. Last question, we -- luckily, we don't have a slowdown in production in Europe and even not restructuring plan for Europe. We are well satisfied of our footprint. We did some restructuring activities in 2018, 2019 in Italy and United Kingdom. And now the footprint of Europe is in line with our target of growth. We have spare capacity to support the high value growth of the coming 2 years. And we will invest the vast majority of our CapEx in Europe to improve the automation, the digitization and the electrification of our factory to make our footprint more and more efficient in the coming years.

The next question is from George Galliers at Goldman Sachs.

The first question I had was with respect to your market share progress. Obviously, you just mentioned the technology you have and how that is helping you. But could you give us any sort of insight into what is helping you to achieve market share gains in the larger format tires? And how much market share do you believe you have gained over the course of the last 18 months? And how much more share do you think is possible to achieve as we look forward? Second question I had was with respect to inflation. Obviously, inflation is proving burdensome, and you're doing a very good job of offsetting it. To the extent it continues into next year, is the scope for further efficiency gains above and beyond the EUR 140 million that you have targeted for this year?

Well, the leadership of Pirelli in the original equipment is basically driven 100% by our capability to innovate and the technology that we can provide to the carmakers. Of course, we have a long-term partnership based on trust and innovation with the carmakers. We have been able to introduce new features, ultra low rolling resistance and noise canceling system approach, extended mobility and now connected tires that are supporting the carmakers all around the world to accelerate in the transition towards electric and hybrid vehicles. And so all it has to do with technology. Our -- never forget that the company is fully dedicated to consumer business leading the high-value market. So 100% of our efforts in terms of R&D, in terms of manufacturing, in terms of sales, operations, supply chain and so on, are dedicated to the growth in the high value. And this since a couple of decades were following the guidance of Mr. Tronchetti, the strategy of the company moved dramatically into the direction of the high value. And today, we leverage on the consolidation of this leadership. Digitization is helping to accelerate an introduction of new technology. We are today in the position to develop our products 100% through virtualization. This is making the lead time shorter and also more efficient to the development of product. This is also a great support. What we did in the original equipment and that is allowing us to grow market share, I would say, 0.2%, 0.3% in the last 1.5 years has been also to enlarge our customer base. So we decided to partnering more and more with North American and Chinese carmakers, also South Korean carmakers where 5 years ago, we were very -- we had a very small presence. And today, the market share we have with the EV players in North America and in China is the same we have with a historical partner of Europe in Premium and Prestige segment. Moving into inflation, the 2024, we have been able to fully offset inflation with efficiency, we are in the phase to preparing the plan for 2025, but I'm confident that our efficiency plan in 2025 will be higher than the efficiency because -- sorry, sorry, than inflation. So in '24, inflation equal to efficiency, in 2025 efficiencies will be higher than inflation because we will keep our plan of efficiencies similar to 2024 or possibly better, but we do expect a reduction in the total amount of inflation.

The next question is from Akshat Kacker, JPMorgan.

Three from my side, please. The first one on pricing and tire mix in Europe. Some of your peers have been cautioning around consumer sentiment in Europe and the risk of trade down in tires. I just want to confirm if you're seeing any of that in your key segments in Europe, please? That's the first one. The second question is on China. So Q3 specifically has been a quarter where Western players have seen further pressure in China. Could you just remind us how has your business been doing in China, either on Q3 or on a 9-month basis, how has the business performed year-on-year 2024 versus '23, please? And the last one on inflation again, just a follow-up. Can you just remind us what are your current expectations on the key inflators or the cost elements from the P&L going into 2025 just a broad bucket across energy, labor and freight, please?

Price in Europe in the last 3 quarters, I would say, has been in our segment, pretty stable. The last 3 quarters in the replacement channel, we haven't seen a major movement. Quarter 3, China, I confirm that has not been in terms of market, positive market has been, we saw a slowdown in demand. And generally speaking, we entered into a destocking phase. And as I said before, I confirm the outlook for Q4 in replacement, China is not expected to be positive. We are gaining market share, but it's not really the engine of the growth of net sales in the second half of the year, the replacement of China. The inflation in 2024 is expected to be roughly EUR 140 million, out of which EUR 100 million more or less, a bit less than EUR 100 million coming from labor cost, which remains the biggest impact of the total inflation of 2024.

The next question is from Thomas Besson, Kepler.

I ask 3 questions at all, please. Firstly, could you give us some indications about potential increases in taxes in 2025? I think both Italy and France are looking at any potential sources of incremental cash and companies are effectively looking like attractive targets for that? Second question, you mentioned the gains you've achieved in China in OEM replacement in the high-value segment. Could you remind us where you stand in terms of market share in OE and replacement in China? And who are the top 5 players in both segments? And finally, I know it's a detail, but I think right now, we never know what's going to happen. Could you break down the Mexico versus Georgia sourcing of your U.S. operations? I think you've mentioned to an earlier question that the largest portion of U.S., 60% of local sales was supported by Mexico and Georgia. Is it fair to believe that most of it is Mexico?

Yes, I will start with the second and the third question, and then I will leave the floor to Mr. Bocchio for the fiscal impact expected for 2025. So the last question, the Mexican plant is by far bigger than the Georgian one. The Georgia one is a small, high technological plant. Second question on the regional equipment and replacement market share in China, I would say, we have roughly a 16% share with close to 20% in the replacement and a bit less than 15%, 14% more or less in original equipment. Mr. Bocchio?

For the tax, I will take the question. let's first of all, saying that the tax rate for the quarter 3 was about 29%, which was in line with industrial plan, '24-'25 average that we forecasted. For the 9 months year-to-date, September, tax rate was about 26.5%. That is roughly in line with the expectation for the full year. And this counts the impact, positive impact of a tax litigation settlement booked and already commented in quarter 1 at the beginning of the year. For next year, what we expect is in line with the guidance that we did -- that we gave to the market related to industrial plan 2024, 2025. So we expect again for next year tax rate on the average on the range between 28% to 30%, possibly in the upper part of the range considering that in 2024 instead we came on the lower part of this range. So a little bit of seasonality of tax rate between the 2 years, but fully in line with the expectation we had in our industrial plan.

The next question is from Gianluca Bertuzzo, Intermonte.

I would like to focus a little bit on North America. How you progressing there? What is the price positioning also compared to your price position in other markets? Is profitability different compared to other regions? And from -- you were implementing a lot of commercial action, if I remember correctly. Are the results you are achieving from that in line with your expectation? Or do you expect more? And last on the inventory level there?

North America stays at the core of our growth strategy for the coming years. And is where we are implementing the vast majority of our commercial efforts is simply because it remains the biggest high-value market of the world. And our market share in North America stays below the average of the market share we have in the other high-value markets. The strategy is based on our increasing market share in the typical Americas regional in the typical American carmakers partnering with Ford, with Tesla, with Stellantis, but also with the newcomers of EV, like Rivian or Lucid. Second, we have been able to introduce in North America products fully dedicated to the American consumers that normally looks for a high mileage performance. And today, our mileage warranty and our mileage performance has been recognized by magazines, by consumers and by distributors as one of the best performers in the product offers in the market. Third, we invested in production capacity, as I said before, and we want to -- we plan to invest to grow even more in production capacity to improve the local-for-local strategy. And then we are recording a fast-growing awareness and also consideration of our brand. This has been also supported by the presence in the Formula 1 that is improving its popularity in North America in the last years. And all these together, supported by a new team with a new leader that in the last 2 years, did a very good job. We have been able to gain market share to overperform the market and also to improve our price position in the market. And today, we are a price reference in the United States. In terms of inventory in North America, I would say we are at a normal level. We don't see a measure -- we monitor the level of stock of our main partners, and it stays at the level of the average for this season.

The next question is from Edoardo Spina, HSBC.

I have 4 quick questions. The first on the U.S. taxes. President Trump had spoken about reducing the corporate tax rate by 5 percentage points. If it does go ahead, would this cut have a noticeable impact on the tax rate that you pay? And the other 2 questions are on the Cyber Tyre. The first is if you have an exclusivity agreement with Bosch or if you're working with other suppliers or maybe exactly with some OEMs? The third question is what are the factors that could drive a broader commercialization of the Cyber Tyre? If it's a matter of high development cost. But can you also discuss if the premium OEMs are just skeptical about the products, that I have very little information on this myself. And finally, if you could give a rough indication about the timing for next steps of the Cyber Tyre, just a high-level idea about the time frame of the growth?

Thank you for the question. So taxation in U.S., as you know, there are real incentives in America, and we believe that Trump will implement this. We don't see a major impact on our accounts, they believe could be 5% in America. But it's really too early to say and so we have to wait. With Bosch, we don't have an exclusivity. And the Cyber Tyre, we see the opposite. There is no -- oh my goodness, people believe into the future of cyber technology. We are in touch with a number of carmakers together with Bosch. It's obvious that we are analyzing to enter now in the new car model, which means that it will take 2, 3 years to have the beginning of the commercial impact of the cyber technology. What is important is the recognition of the uniqueness of our technology and our efficiency of the technology by the car maker. So I think I answer to all your questions, and thank you again.

The next question is from [ Michael Nod ] at Morgan Stanley.

I think that's me, it is Ross MacDonald, Morgan Stanley. Three questions from my side. A quick follow-up on the U.S. capacity additions. How should we think about those in the context of the CapEx trend relative to sales next year? Do you feel you can keep CapEx at the 6% level on sales? The second question is looking at the 2025 guidance on Slide 25. At the midpoint, that revenue guidance is EUR 6.9 billion, so about 3% higher versus the EUR 6.7 billion you see in 2024. Can you just remind us how we should think about the split there between price mix and volume within that top line bridge? And then final question, just thinking about raw mats into next year. Obviously, we've had the EUDR regulation delayed and it seems like some budget players have been maybe overproducing ahead of tariffs in 2024. Would it be fair to assume the path for raw mats into 2025 could be getting easier from here? Just be curious about how you see the raw mat trend moving into the first half of next year.

Thank you for your question. I will start with the CapEx. Yes, we confirm roughly the 6% on sales. It will remain a stable level of CapEx also for next year. On the top line, it's a bit early to have a split on the revenue drivers. But what we can confirm is the stable performance of our product mix, which is part of the price mix. And this is embedded in our business model, so it's confirmed and that is something that we can easily predict from now. Why the price, pure price performance all the channel mix will be -- will depend on the development of the environment. And we will take the coming 2 months to have a better and clear understanding of the market development. and we will be back with the updated guidance as soon as possible, of course. EUDR, we fully support the EUDR regulations. In our view, this is something that will add to the industry. And we'll also have the quality of the product circulating on our roads in Europe, and so we are ready to implement it even if it was confirmed in 2025. But if Europe will definitely decide to postpone -- sorry, already decided to postpone, we will follow. And we don't expect impact on the raw material price for this, at least for the next 4 months because it's already embedded in our COGS. So we -- and it is still very high because you see the natural rubber price remains in the ballpark of the $2,000 per ton.

Mr. Tronchetti Provera, there are more questions registered at this time.

So thank you. Thank you to all of you. We conclude today's program, and thank you for your attention, attendance, and have a good evening.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your devices.