Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Greetings, and welcome to the Plug Power January 2022 Business Update Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Teal Hoyos, Director of Marketing Communications. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Welcome to the January 2022 Business Update Conference Call. This call will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements contain projections of our future results of operations or of our financial position or state other forward-looking information. We intend these forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act. We believe that it is important to communicate our future expectations to investors. However, investors are cautioned not to unduly rely on forward-looking statements, and such statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those discussed as a result of various factors, including, but not limited to risks and uncertainties discussed in our most annual -- our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, as well as other reports we file from time to time with the SEC. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the day in which the statements are made, and we do not undertake or intend to update any forward-looking statements after this call as a result of new information. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Andy Marsh, Plug Power's CEO.

Good morning, everyone. For the past 5 years, we have annually used this January call to lay out our expectations for the coming year. This call provides investors an opportunity to precisely hear our goals for 2022 and gain some insight into our execution strategy. In this rapidly expanding market, we will certainly cause some audibles after thoughtful deliberations if we can create additional value for our shareholders. I should also emphasize that we have never entered a year with such clarity due to our backlog and our detailed strategic road map. Let me remind the audience what this session is not. This call is not our fourth quarter earnings call, which will be held on March 1. Plug is a company that can provide products and services for the entire hydrogen ecosystem. This is unique. We can generate hydrogen, like at our plant in Tennessee. We can distribute hydrogen using our own liquid and gases hydrogen trailers. We can operate fueling stations like at Walmart, Amazon, and can serve a multitude of fuel cell applications in this growing hydrogen space. In the presentation today, I will lay out cliometrics for each end market for 2022, so investors can measure our progress throughout the year. These metrics will not only be a strong indicator for this year, but ultimately to reach our 2025 goal of $3 billion in revenue, 20% EBITDA and 17% operating income. To achieve this goal, Plug needs to be global. In 2021, Plug established a global footprint. We're in Europe with our facilities in Germany and The Netherlands, and with Renault in France and ACCIONA in Spain. In Asia, we have over 150 employees in India to support the global electrolyzer market and stationary power market. Additionally, in Asia, we will be deploying projects with SK via our joint venture and starting our joint gigafactory in South Korea. In Australia, we'll be building a factory with Fortescue Future Industries that will produce electrolyzers for the generation of green ammonia and hydrogen, much of that hydrogen to be used to power Plug ProGen fuel cells. Additionally, we now have sales offices in the Middle East and South America. Without question, Plug and our 2,500 employees are global and these employees are designing and building hydrogen plants like our facility in Western New York, leveraging our new 155,000 square foot gigafactory in Rochester, New York and fuel cell products manufactured at our Latham area facilities, and soon, by the end of the third quarter, our 300,000 square foot manufacturing and distribution center in Bethlehem, New York. We also have over 200,000 square feet of manufacturing facilities in Houston to support our Cryogenic trailer business. And these facilities will service our partners and customers. So let me just rattle off a list of some of our customers and partners. Amazon, SK E&S, Orascom, Fortescue, BMW, Renault, Home Depot, Lhyfe, Walmart, Mercedes, ACCIONA, Linde, Stellantis, Certarus and many, many more. Now let me turn to our energy business. I like -- I really like the mission of our energy efforts, which is concentrated on being one of the largest global energy companies focusing on displacing diesel with green hydrogen. We're also not forgetting the opportunity to displace gray hydrogen and natural gas in a multitude of applications. We've announced 4 plants, these plants are in New York, Georgia, Texas and California. Our goal is to generate 500 tons of green hydrogen per day in the U.S. by 2025. Building the first nationwide and by 2028, have 1,000 tons per day of green hydrogen globally. Two of the plants are under construction in New York and Georgia as I speak. Let me review the New York plant at a high level. The electrical feedstock is from New York Power Authority, with electricity generated using hydroelectric power. The electrolyzers are Plug manufactured, the trailers for delivering liquid hydrogen a plugged via our acquisition of Applied Cryo Tech. The other key component is the liquefier coming via a third party. The liquefier is a device that takes gases hydrogen and creates a liquid hydrogen. Even though we will continue to work with third parties, we've been seeking an acquisition to accelerate this technology. Let me remind the audience that hydrogen is needed in liquid form because of its superior energy density versus gases hydrogen, lower transportation costs, and notably we believe for powering long-haul shipping. Plug has identified this is a key technology that we require in our portfolio. This is the reason Plug purchased Joule on Friday. Joule is an expert in LNG equipment, converting natural gas to liquid natural gas. The proven liquefication technology that Joule has developed for the LNG market is directly applicable to hydrogen liquefication. One of the challenges faced in the industry is improving the efficiency of hydrogen liquefiers. Joule has a plan that can reduce the electrical cost to liquefy hydrogen by 25% for 500-ton of production that would save us $20 million per year based on $0.03 a kilowatt hour electricity costs. This will also represent a capital expenditure saving for Plug by building the equipment in-house. In the next 4 years, we anticipate savings of approximately $200 million. We are also forecasting a large potential market for this equipment that could generate $0.25 billion of revenue annually for Plug, with potential customers like SK in the future. Plug purchased Joule for $30 million with a future earnout based on meeting the efficiency targets and sales and gross margin targets. Going back to the energy business, here are our 2022 goals, 70 tonnes of green hydrogen production by year-end, starting construction of 3 additional plants, execute long-term purchasing contract for 200 tons a day of green hydrogen, working with partners to develop a strategy for hydrogen pipelines and large-scale storage, for example, salt caverns. Now on to our electrolyzers activities. Here's a block diagram of the green hydrogen project with Orascom. This looks very similar to our plants that set the hydrogen feeds and ammonia plant that today with nitrogen and great hydrogen, create ammonia that is ultimately used in fertilizer production. This green ammonia can be used to power ship. The ammonia plant will be -- replace gray hydrogen with green hydrogen, the only change in the operation. This market is analogous to our material handling fuel cell products, where we could leverage the present infrastructure in that case, the electric forklift truck and substitute a fuel cell for battery. These are markets that can be scaled rapidly. Why did a Orascom choose Plug? Our leadership is a product and technology leader. Scale of our gigafactory to produce goods. This is really unique in the industry. And the small footprint of PEM electrolyzers versus alkaline electrolyzers. Our goal for this business are clear. We're going to ship 155-megawatt electrolyzer products in 2022, have at least a 1 gigawatt backlog by year-end and successfully develop the Australian market with our partner, Fortescue. Market is a much bigger opportunity than outlined above. Policy development could dramatically accelerate the opportunity. We believe our bookings could be 2 to 3x larger than outlined. In the U.S. alone, policies could allow the cost of green hydrogen to be on par with gray hydrogen immediately. I think a clear sign of the potential for acceleration is the sales funnel sits at approximately 7.5 gigawatts a day and growing, Successfully globally growing our electrolyzer solution business is clearly a top priority for Plug. Now let me turn to our fuel cell activities. Here's another diagram that shows the plug offering. In this case, for distribution centers. This is a mini hydrogen hub that includes electrolyzers to generate hydrogen fueling stations for on-road vehicles and stationary products to back up the building. To many people, this is a schematic to plug this is our offering. Let us now turn to our first business material handling. Plug now has 5 pedestal customers, which was our goal by 2024 and we are 3 years ahead of schedule. In 2021, we shipped 12,800 GenDrive units and built 49 hydrogen fueling station, both records. In 2022, we have established the following goals for material handling, $600 million in revenue we have had -- when you start looking at gross margins, our GenDrive products have regularly exceeded 30% and in 2022, we expect significant improvement in our service cost for material handling, which will allow our service activity to achieve gross margin neutral by year-end. And I think really critical is we're going to add 3 pedestal customers with at least 2 in Europe. And finally, we have underdevelopment a simplified hydrogen fueling station to allow the use of fuel cells at smaller sites. This segment of business has done a remarkable job. Our present customers tell us they have -- would not have been successful in shipping their products to stores without our offerings. Some of these customers will be accelerating their purchases during the coming year. Reliably delivering hydrogen to these customers is vital. Our ability to manage the hydrogen force majeure in the U.S. would have never been possible without our service team and energy team. Their work makes our green hydrogen business and other fuel cell offerings even more attractive. As many now know, hydrogen will be a critical element to meet their sustainability goals. Let's talk about our new market activities, starting with on-road vehicles. We couldn't have found a better partner than Renault for our European efforts for their 50-50 JV. HYVIA continues to lead in green H2 mobility. HYVIA has 3 vehicles this year after the formation of our JV in the second quarter. This includes the Renault Master Van H2-TECH, the Renault Master Chassis Cab H2-TECH and the Master City Bus H2-TECH. These products can move both people and goods. These products are powered by Plug's ProGen technology, which leverages our leading-edge stack technology. During this year, we've released our 125-kilowatt ProGen module that can be used in on-road vehicles, stationary products and aerial applications, with such customers as universal hydrogen. Plug also brings the HYVIA JV, our expertise in hydrogen generation and fueling stations. With HYVIA, we are offering customers a turnkey solution for industry in Europe alone expects to have 250,000 vehicles with this JV by 2030, with this JV targeting a 30% market share. We are targeting to move into heavy-duty vehicles. We've been delivering in choosing a partner to move ahead, but we will be able to provide the market clarity by the end of the first half of 2022. Plug also has built a large-scale stationary product. I drove it and looked at it when I came in today, and in the first half, we are targeting shipments to provide power to back up data centers generate primary power to the grid and powering electric vehicles. Near term, the biggest opportunities are actually powering electric vehicles and providing backup power with some pedestal customers. In the midterm, the mid big market will be data centers and primary power products for customers like SK E&S. These products for these markets are not easy and not being easy, provides us a differential advantage. The base ProGen module provides us a scalable solution to address multiple markets. The integration of these modules into vehicles is one of Plug's core competencies. Large-scale stationary products are complex. Our engineers and experts are turning complex problems in the simple-to-use product. This is the Plug difference. Our goals for -- in 2022 for new markets are really clear, a range for 10 customers for HYVIA vehicle offering, we already have 7; establish a clear heavy-duty vehicle strategy for -- on on-road via partnerships or acquisitions; and position Plug to ship 1,000 on-road vehicles in 2023; ship megawatt-scale products to 3 customers by the end of second quarter. And look, this business will start delivering revenue, $50 million this year and we expect $300 million in future sales commitments by year-end. So now I'd like to turn to policy. At Plug, personally also, I am actively engaged in global policy discussions from membership and global organizations through our active participation in helping steer U.S. policy via the national organization, FCHEA. Policy is accelerated for this business and global policy has been receptive to hydrogen to achieve country's global CO2 emission goals. In Europe, the 80 gigawatts of deployment by 2030 presents a big opportunity for hydrogen activities for electrolyzers and plants, but also for our HYVIA business. Korea policy also align to support our large-scale power offering. Let me turn to U.S. The Infrastructure Bill is $8.5 billion for at least 4 hydrogen hubs and $1 billion for electrolyzers. Work also continues with the DOE loan office to help accelerate our build-out of hydrogen plants. As the leader in the U.S., in the generation green hydrogen and fuel cells, we have been working with states across the countries, utilities and other partners to compete for the hubs. In New York, many government officials and utilities are supporting these efforts. The impacts of the hubs are not in our calculation for the coming year, but will be a boom for future years for the deployment of our products and generation of hydrogen. Look, like many, we've been disappointed that Biden Build Back Better plan package did not become law in 2021. The substance of the energy package to support hydrogen has been strongly supported by Senator Manchin. Many believe that by April 2022, many parts of the package maybe pass as individual bills. The tax credit for green hydrogen at $3 a kilogram and the extension of fuel cell tax credit could dramatically increase our business. Within Plug, we're doing detailed planning to support the supply side, especially for electrolyzers if this bill becomes law. As mentioned previously, green hydrogen will instantly become competitive with gray hydrogen. One should ask, why would anyone buy gray if they could buy green hydrogen. I can tell you that the answer is the limits of the sale to the limits of the scales of green hydrogen and electrolyzers to replace SMRs will be limited by supply. During this call, we provided targets and objectives for each of the markets we participate, which happens to be every part of the hydrogen ecosystem. I would ask our investors to track us against these individual goals during the year. I would suggest our transparency and details about our objectives is unmatched in the industry. From a big picture, the key goal for Plug is revenue for 2022, and I would like to reiterate that goal, $900 million to $925 million in revenue at 80% growth over 2021. The work we did in 2021 has positioned us for a strong 2022. And now let me brag and just kind of reiterate some of that. We established our joint venture with Renault, SK and ACCIONA, supporting our on-road vehicle strategy, stationary power business and energy business. A partnership with Fortescue Future Industries for a gigafactory, enabling, among other things, the build-out of green ammonia and hydrogen. We achieved 5 pedestal customers for our material handling business in 2021, 3 years ahead of schedule. We have a backlog of 155 megawatts of electrolyzer products that will deliver in 2022, a big win with Orascom for our electrolyzer business for a green ammonia plant in Egypt. We launched our new gigafactory in Rochester, New York. I can't wait to bring you all there for stacks for both PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers. We completed the design of our 125-megawatt fuel cell engine as well as building out our first stationary products. I think this is really critical. And we built a management team that will allow us to scale this business. For example, Dave Mindnich, who joined us from Tesla, has built a team that can allow us to scale our operations for the next decade. We believe one of our key differential advantage is our leadership team and the capabilities that run deep throughout the organization. In 2022, the steps we outlined in this presentation will allow us to achieve our goals for 2025, which to reiterate one more time, $3 billion in revenue, 20% EBITDA and 17% OI. Plug, we dream big, and we plan to be a big winner as our customers in the world turns to hydrogen to reduce 20% of the world's global carbon footprint. I want to thank you for listening to a long presentation from me. I usually don't do that on the call. But Paul and I are now really happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer.

Andy, the fuel and service business has been a real challenge, given all the headwinds in '21 and even before that. So I'd love to just get a bit more detail on the cadence for the margin improvement and the drivers of that margin improvement as you go through the balance of this year. I think it's a goal that's really pretty meaningful for a lot of folks.

Great. Colin, I'll let Paul take that one.

Colin, thanks for the question. I guess a couple of different things. One is we've been pretty transparent and you referenced that last year, there was a number of force majeure issues. Those have been resolved and that was a pretty big distraction. We also went through key transition with some of the vendors that we talked about in the first quarter last year. As we enter this year, a number of things are unfolding. We're actually -- we're turning on new capacity in the second half, which is going to have a step function change in the margin profile, being able to produce that fuel at half the cost we're paying today. We're actually increasing capacity in our Tennessee facility and actually able to extract more hydrogen out of that, which is a margin beneficial factor for Plug. And we're also looking at other sources in the short term of how to tap into new hydrogen solutions that help us reduce that cost. The other big piece is efficiency. We've learned -- we're the largest reseller of liquid hydrogen in the world and using the systems that we've done, the learnings that we've had with acquisitions like the ACT acquisition and bringing on -- and able to ramp up our own distribution capabilities, we're able to impact that dramatically. So you're going to see progression this year and then you're going to see step function change, really kind of first of '23 onwards as we migrate more and more of the new sites and even some of the renewing sites into our own capacity as we move forward. So that's kind of some of the key drivers that you're going to see in the short term, midterm and long term.

And how about service, Paul?

Yes. You didn't ask about service, but I'll just comment on it because that's the other big challenge for us. We had a number of interesting dynamics. One is the number -- the mix of units in our service portfolio is incredibly favorable directionally for us, given the number of -- I mean, look at last year, we did 32 sites with Amazon, and those are all new units with a much better service profile than what we've had in the past. And then you look at the resources that we've added over the last 12 months, even though force majeure, fuel issues and COVID and other things have had some distractions for us in terms of supporting the growth and still meeting some of our reliability investments, we've actually almost tripled the number of people that we've got specifically focused on reliability measures. And the learnings that we've gleaned with some of the things that we're doing are going to have tremendous impact in the service profile this year. And then again, as we continue to layer in newer units with better technology, more the best, latest and greatest in some of those legacy programs wind off, holistically, you're going to see a progression in that margin profile, to the point where maybe even as of year-end, we're breakeven to slightly moving positive in that business, which is an exciting milestone and on the right direction to get it to 30% over the next couple of years.

That's super helpful. And then just shifting gears a little bit in terms of the growth of the green hydrogen production capacity. I would love to get an update in terms of site identification and development and more importantly, around procurement of power. We're seeing a significant growth in demand for green energy and securing PPAs at reasonable levels to keep the cost structure in check, seems incredibly important as you grow that business. I just really love to understand where you're at in that identification of the sites and the procurement process.

Sure. So Colin, we have 16 sites identified that -- let me say, that are serious across the U.S. One of the items we don't want to do is to tell people where those sites are. In general, we are targeting under $0.03 a kilowatt hour for electricity, we have achieved at the sites we've announced. As you know, we have the 1 site, which is being constructed outside New York, which will be up to 45 tons a day of green hydrogen. We have another site that's being constructed in Georgia and the border between Florida and Georgia by the major highways. That will actually be producing some green hydrogen in this February. But that plan will be 15 tons, a little bit more by the end of the year. So we have, as I mentioned during the call -- we'll have additional sites under construction by year-end. And I think with what we've secured, we're on a good pace to reach that goal. What really differentiate, Colin, is we're actually building stuff. I mean I know there's a lot of announcements out there, I see them. I know, but we're actually building it now and have it available now. And quite honestly, it helps our electrolyzer business. I went through the activity with a Orascom. And one of the advantages was we actually knew how to build a plan. And I think that made us a more -- much more attractive partner than some other folks.

Our next question is coming from Stephen Byrd of Morgan Stanley.

Thanks so much for the update. I wanted to dive into a couple of topics in more depth. One topic was sort of the, over time, the relative size of your electrolyzer and hydrogen business, the revenue there versus material handling. And in the past, you've talked about electrolyzers and hydrogen sales being bigger than material handling by the sort of 2023 to 2024 time frame. I just wanted to get your latest thoughts in terms of how you think about the relative size of those 2 sides of your business.

Sure. And I'm going to let Paul talk a little. I mean, when I look at the electrolyzer business, I would expect it probably will, by 2023, surpass the -- our business in material handling. With the amount of activity -- and look, we have a funnel of 7.5 gigawatts at the moment. that may be understating the funnel. I can tell you this week, I'm working with people on at least 2.5 gigawatts of projects, which I didn't know about on January 1. So it is, to me, it's clear that, that market is growing. And look, I think a lot of it will be in activity where it's easier than having to think through whole new infrastructures. I mentioned with Orascom, we can substitute. So I'd see that happening sooner. I think for the generation business, you're probably talking 2025, just because of the build-out of the plant, until it exceeds material handling. Paul, do you want to comment on things?

Yes, I think that's right. And if you go back to the symposium, we gave some guidance, but the really exciting thing for me is the pipeline. I mean these projects are really big, and we're just starting to really touch the surface of these opportunities. And we're uniquely positioned to deliver it. And as Andy said, it's not -- it's something that we know how to do and can do and are well uniquely positioned in the world to do this. And so I think even as of next year, we could be one of the largest electrolyzer companies in the world, if not, we will be. So maybe even this year. So it's pretty exciting. And I think that there's a lot of upside in that business, beyond even what we've shared even in the supposing.

That's really helpful. And just a separate topic here on Build Back Better legislation, we totally agree that legislation really is a game changer for green hydrogen in the United States, at least. And we're quite excited about the prospects there. And you all mentioned in your prepared remarks a bit about some of the planning you're doing there. But let's say that the legislation passes essentially, as we've seen it in the draft of the $3 a kilogram and the extension of the fuel cell tax credit, could you talk a little bit more about what that potentially might mean in terms of, for example, your CapEx plans and the pace of opportunity there? Just given the size of the gray hydrogen market, we honestly struggle with translating that into what you might do. I mean, the size is so big in terms of that market. How quickly could that accelerate what you're already doing, given that you're not exactly standing still now, you're not exactly growing at a low rate right now? But what -- how might that impact your growth and your CapEx plans?

Let me talk about -- I'll let Paul -- let me talk about the electrolyzer business. Steve, I could see us doing to activities in the electrolyzer business. I can tell you already, we're working with especially ammonia producers around the world and here in the U.S. on how we can timely migrate their plants away from gray hydrogen to green hydrogen. And those plants -- we've even thought about in discussions how part of that could be used for our own production and part of it could be used for their own operations. I -- it's hard to put a real number on it, but I mentioned during the talk that I could see that in 2023, our electrolyzer business could be 10x what it is in 2022. And Steve, that's not a commitment, but I can just see the kind of momentum that's going on. And for our green hydrogen business, it's probably the impact seeing more late 2023, early 2024, just to get the plants built. But the kind of goals I outlined were -- is bigger than material handling by 2025, it will be bigger than material handling in 2024, if that bill passes or anything that looks like that bill. And as you know, there's lots of work. It's interesting. The climate aspects, especially for hydrogen, do not seem to be a lot of disagreement on. As you know, most of the debates going on is social aspects. And we feel that there's a good chance it can pass this year.

Our next question is coming from James West of Evercore.

I'm so curious, with respect to the green hydrogen build-out here, I know you're negotiating some offtake agreements now. When do you think we should start to see announcements for the offtake in customers signing up for those -- the agreements?

James, I think you'll see it by the end of the first quarter for some. We already had the smaller one with Certarus. But we have 2 that the lawyers are working through at the moment.

Okay. Okay. Perfect. And then you mentioned [ 16 ] in digital sites that have been identified. What should we expect for the cadence of announcements there on the build-out?

Yes. And James, I probably will announce coherently with the construction start, just because I don't want folks to know where I am. So I would expect 3 to 4 this year.

Okay. Okay. And then last for me. You mentioned 3 additional pedestal customers, same thing there. We're getting pretty close on agreements?

Yes, I'd expect at least 1, just call it by the end of April, if not earlier, and the other 2 throughout the year.

Okay. Lot of good stuff coming.

Yes. James, I hope this really makes it clear for everybody what's going -- what we expect will happen. That's why I tried to deal with these goals today with the team.

Our next question is coming from Eric Stine of Craig Hallum.

So maybe -- I know you reiterated the 2022 guide. But just to square up a few things there. First, I know you upped the electrolyzer shipment target. And obviously, you're working to a much larger number, but just in the near term, you upped that, kept the guide, I mean, is that something we should view as kind of a source of upside? Or is that something that you had -- maybe already factored in back at the symposium?

Run that by me again, Eric? I'm sorry. I didn't catch it.

So you reiterated 2022, right, your guide, but you upped the electrolyzer shipments. So I'm just curious, I mean, should we view that as you being conservative and that there is upside to that guide as a result? Or is this something that you had already factored in that you were going to take up this electrolyzer shipment target?

Eric, throughout the -- one of the items that we've done, I think, well during the past years that we've -- we gradually upped the targets once the numbers become more and more firm. And again, we look at the $900 million, $925 million, and I can sit here and say, "I'm not going to be debating with you guys whether we made it or not." As things begun to -- as more activity becomes clearer and clearer, I wouldn't be surprised if we, throughout the year, increased numbers if the crystal ball becomes clearer. I think we all look to this number and said, we're not going to be sweating it. And so I wouldn't be surprised if gradually throughout the year, we've increased the numbers.

Got it. No, that makes sense. Maybe just on Joule...

I want to make you guys look good too, Eric, by having the right numbers.

There you go. Maybe just on Joule, that acquisition, does that factor into the 2022 guide and what you just said that potentially you've taken up throughout the year? Or I mean, is that an acquisition that's more about lowering the cost and you internalizing this rather than a revenue impact?

Yes. I see it as -- our focus with that one is technology development, internalizing costs, as well as a big sales opportunity in future years. But the main focus is can we drive the power level down for liquefiers, can we build which helps us on OpEx cost, can we reduce our own internal capital cost for plant build-out. And look, we believe in liquid hydrogen, and we believe in the work they're doing. And my Plug internal team here told me that this was a company that could really help us dramatically reduce our OpEx ongoing. So look, once -- as we do that, we'll be looking for more sales opportunities, but we don't see it as a big, huge revenue upside for this year.

Our next question is coming from Bill Peterson of JPMorgan.

I have a question, too. I understand the potential upside. I guess in light of the prior question with increased visibility on electrolyzers, you have good visibility and some other projects. Some of the, if I call it, conservatism related to supply constraints, just as in countries still have lockdowns, no COVID policies, I'm just curious on how that might be playing a role in your -- you today? Or is it more just that you haven't yet booked some of this business and want to leave room for upside?

Yes, Bill, good question, Bill. And look, I'd be unrealistic to say that there aren't -- that we're not working supply chain every day. And we did a remarkable job last year, almost doubling the business. I think we did double the business versus 2022 -- 2020. And I just -- I do worry about and we work it every morning. I have a call every morning first thing about supply chain. So that's always in the back of my mind, and it's always in the back of my mind whether people may slip the fourth quarter into the first quarter 2023. So it's kind of -- after doing this at Plug for the last 14 years and after being a CEO for the last 20 years, I recognize things can move around a bit. And I think on top of that, the challenges with the supply chain at the moment, I think being a bit cautious early on is probably a smart move.

That makes a ton of sense. On the fuel cell business and particularly some of the newer parts, things like HYVIA and the stationery, you put in the slide deck that stationary having some customer deliveries here in the first half, does that mean there's still potential shipments in the second half? And I guess on the HYVIA side, should we assume that, that's pretty much back end? And I'm trying to get a feel for how we should be thinking about conceptually on the trajectory of your fuel cell business.

Yes. I see HYVIA is starting to move late second quarter with the delivery to 10 customers. And I think on the stationery business, we -- I could see us shipping. These are big -- these are -- I look at the product, it's a big product, I could see us shipping 10 to 12 more in the second half of the year.

Our next question is coming from Joseph Spak of RBC Capital Markets.

Just for -- maybe if we think about 2022 as the full year, and I know that like the cadence is going to look different throughout the year because you're adding the capacity, but what do you think the mix of produced versus spot hydrogen limit to customers is going to be like?

Yes. I would think most -- we'll produce about 10 -- Paul, and I'll let Paul add on, about 10 tons a day ourselves, probably 50 tons of purchase per day. And then I think by year-end, you can see us -- we'll still be purchasing party -- hydrogen from third parties, but we'll be generating 70 tons a day ourselves, which will -- which some of that will go to our present customers and some of that will go to external sources because it will be more profitable selling it on the spot market or through contracts we're developing.

Okay. And maybe that sort of actually someone addresses maybe the follow-on. But like so what percent of like -- how do you -- of the green hydrogen you intend to produce, and we can talk about this, not '22, but maybe more at scale, like how do you sort of think about what portion of that goes towards Plug fuel cell-powered devices?

Yes. so that's a -- I'm going to give you a complicated question, Joseph. I would just say this, we will produce more than we use. And that there will be -- we're already working on swap agreements with some of the industrial gas companies today. So I may be buying 30 tons from somebody, but they also may be buying 30 tons from [ me ]. So it's -- so I would answer the question -- answer that question by saying that by the end of this year, my capacity will exceed my use. And we will still be buying hydrogen from other parties, but we also will have swap agreements, where they will be buying hydrogen from Plug.

Okay. And then just one quick one on electrolyzers, you mentioned the 1 gigawatt backlog. How long is it going to take you to execute on that? And does that include anything from the Fortescue JV? Or would that be additive to that number?

Sure. So the 155-megawatt for this year, which is in backlog, does not include what we expect to do with Fortescue. That's additive. We also -- the 1 gigawatt is what I'm targeting as backlog by the year-end 2022. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we think that could be 2 to 3x larger. And obviously, if the tax credit goes through, it even could be significantly larger than that.

And roughly, let's say, it's 1 gigawatt, like how quickly can you run through that? Like how quickly will that actually roll on?

I think we could roll that on [indiscernible] in 2023.

Our next question is coming from Alex Kania of Wolfe Research.

Just a couple maybe follow-up questions. I think first is just a simple one, just the Orascom timing, is that 2023 delivery? Or is that in the '22 backlog?

'22.

'22. Okay. Got it. And then kind of just thinking about the DOE loan program and maybe some associated kind of ancillaries on the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the hub, what would getting the loan -- a loan on -- for this construction mean for -- from an accounting purposes or cash flow for this year? I know -- and correct me if I'm wrong, or things have changed, but you've talked about maybe $700 million, $750 million of capital this year. Kind of how would that change? And maybe what would the timing be on that? And then just on the hydrogen hub question, just kind of what -- maybe a little bit more help on just what the opportunities are that you [indiscernible]

I'll let Paul take the first question. I'll help on the second question there, Alex.

Yes. I think -- so we are actively working with the DOE on a potential program. We've talked publicly about that. It's probably a little premature to get into too much specifics. But I would just say that I would even step back and say, we're moving forward and using our balance sheet to fund these programs. We don't really have much debt. And as we turn them on and proof of concept, and start really demonstrating this, there's tremendous back lever of capability. So if you think about each of these facilities kind of being $150 million to $200 million of each scale must or plus or minus, there's a pretty big opportunity to back lever just that portfolio. That's not even in Plug's core business and the other things that we're doing. Fortunately, we've got a lot of liquidity. I ended '21 with -- in total cash, like $4.5 billion, close to that number. So we've got plenty of horsepower to fund the growth. But I think between the DOE program and/or other sources of capital that we can tap into, which my position gets tremendously better as we move forward through the year, deliver this year's plans and turn these green hydrogen facilities on, in terms of accessing capital solutions with a cheaper cost of capital solutions. So I don't think it'd be unrealistic to say it could be as much as half, maybe even 2/3 of that number, that we back lever. It's just a question of when and how and under what terms. So there's -- that's just one source of liquidity, but it's a big one, but it could be meaningful to help offset that. And really, I look at it as recycling the capital, really, right? So as we think about '23 and we move into that cycle, I can fund a lot of that off of my current programs that we're building this year. Hopefully, that helps.

So let me mention the hydrogen hubs, Alex. So I would expect that you would see from the DOE, probably in the second quarter in RFPT. I think what at the moment is that you're seeing groups coming together to think through what their offering is going to be. And the bill calls for 4 hydrogen hubs, but it could be more. And I would think any amount of money in those hubs will actually be multiplied by private money. Here in New York, which we're actively engaged with, this is going to be not only coordination between users, suppliers of equipment, utilities, governments. We've been working really closely with the governor's office, local utilities, obviously, Senator Schumer on how we could leverage, for example, what's going on already in Western New York with their gigafactory and the plant in Alabama, how that area could be turned into our large hydrogen hub. But you go to almost think about New Jersey, New York as one of the hubs. My take is that people are working together. I know we have plans with the one of the local utilities that we're putting details on. That will influence an RFP. And I think you'll see decisions being made later in the year. I think one of the real advantage Plug has, quite honestly, is we are the largest American manufacturer of fuel cells and electrolyzers. We've done more in this space than anyone else. And I can tell you, we probably are working 10 to 15 active efforts across United States with potential partners and with potential states. When I was at COP26, for example, I've met with 2 governors to discuss specifically hydrogen hubs.

Our next question is coming from Greg Lewis of BTIG.

Just one for me. And realizing it's kind of -- we just talked about late last year at the symposium. But kind of trying to understand what is the -- as I think about material handling and the GenDrives, what has kind of been the initial progress or moves on the medium side of the material handling business? How is kind of -- how has that been progressing? And how should we be thinking about that this year and in the next?

So I think when I think about material handling, I think you -- when you say medium size, you're kind of calling smaller sites. We actually have started to do smaller sites with Amazon, where we've been able to prove out the value proposition. So one of the reasons that I'm sitting here comfortably, talking about $600 million in revenue this coming year is because we're seeing with our pedestal customers, people like Home Depot, Amazon and Walmart, we're beginning to migrate the offering into smaller sites.

Okay. And so as I think about these -- okay, and so as we think about pedestal customers, it's probably safe to assume that if we're selling into the larger market, there should be over time, opportunities expand into the smaller sizes?

I'd say -- and Greg, that's what we're already seeing happening with Amazon. As well as with Walmart.

Our next question is coming from [ Greg Wasowski ] of [ Research ].

Just a couple of points of clarification on the green hydrogen plant. You mentioned 4 in New York, Georgia, Texas, California. What about the one in Pennsylvania? Didn't you have a 15-ton per day facility using Brookfield Holtwood facility? Or is that still in the works?

So I think that's an example of us calling an audible, Greg, that I mentioned in my second sentence. We looked at Holtwood, we worked with Brookfield. One of the items we found about that facility is we couldn't expand it to as large as we want to go. For example, in New York, we're 45 tons a day today. We have the ability to expand to 75 tons. In Georgia, we have the ability to expand. In Texas, I think we could easily get to 75 tons. We decide that since our inability to grow the renewable electricity at the site that it wasn't as attractive. So we put that to aside and looking with Brookfield and other opportunities.

Okay. Understood. And then you mentioned backup power for EVs. Is that backup power on-site at EV charging stations to ultimately be less reliant on the grid? Is that what you meant? And is there an opportunity there in the next couple of years?

Yes. It's actually a huge opportunity, more at some of our customers are doing last-mile delivery with EVs. And I think they're realizing it's easier to generate hydrogen remotely, truck it in to power the EVs than to actually pull power from the grid. Pulling power from the grid in some place like London, and building new transmission lines is really problematic, and it's much easier 50 kilometers out, generate hydrogen and pull it in so that you have a renewable solution.

Okay. Got it. And one more quick one, if I could, probably for Paul, it's for modeling. Could you give us a recap of your capital outlays expected this year and through 2025, just with all the projects going on? It would be helpful to have a little guidance there.

Sure. so I think when you look at this year, it will be close to north of $1 billion between CapEx and investments. When you're doubling the size of the company like we are, that continues to take working capital investment as well. So fortunately, a couple -- as we look out the next couple of years, I mean, I think the pace probably won't be terribly different. It will probably be $1 billion a year on out. And if some of the things that happened in terms of the green hydrogen bill and other things that can accelerate it, could even go faster. So we said -- that's kind of where we sit today. As we go forward, the 2 things that would really help or are going to be helpful is we definitely -- we're seeing margin progression this year. We're going to see it next year that's going to move us into positive operating cash flows, even as early as next year. And that obviously starts to contribute to the coffers of being able to fund the growth. And then second to that is, as I mentioned earlier, that back leverage capability, and we're sitting today, we really don't have any debt of any scale. And as we move forward and grow this platform, we'll have tremendous ability to back leverage to tap into those capital solutions as well to help fund the growth. So that gives you a little bit of sense of pace and scale in the next couple of years as well as how I'm envisioning how we're going to fund it.

Our next question is coming from Ameet Thakkar of BMO Capital.

I just had a follow-up question. You mentioned that you're targeting some of the smaller sites with some of your kind of first pedestal customers like Amazon and Walmart as well. I was just wondering, could you give us a sense for like -- kind of like the level of penetration in their sites you have so far? Like -- is there like a lot of sites left that you could kind of target in these smaller ones?

Yes. So if I think about Walmart, I'm probably call the number 35%. And I think you could see in 2 to 3 years, we're at 80%.

Our next question is coming from Craig Irwin of ROTH Capital.

Following you guys for a couple of decades now. This is fun. My question is really a follow-up on one that you answered before. So you talked a little bit about the 2 green hydrogen customers that have signed up for offtakes that are -- those agreements in final legal review. I'm going to guess that the pricing has already agreed. Can you maybe talk qualitatively about the pricing, how this is likely to materialize versus your original expectations, given that there is incredible scarcity of green hydrogen these days? Are these offtake agreements likely at a material premium to your original expectations? And what should we think about that as far as an indicator of pricing potential over the next year?

Yes, that's a good question, Craig. And I think that -- I think the pricing is in line with our expectations. And I would say that when you look at this business, you could see gross margins, which are in line with our larger goals for 2025. It's always a difficult question, Craig, I don't really want to tell everybody what I'm charging. But...

I know it's a hard one. I know.

But I'll just say that pricing, when I look at it, should be healthy.

So just as a follow-up on that question, right? There's been a lot of investors that are either currently in your stock or previously in your stock, asking questions about margins on hydrogen. So if you are achieving pricing on green hydrogen, that is already consistent with your 2025 goals, the expectation of fairly significant margin improvement as these facilities come online is fair and well supported. Is that...

Craig, I think that's a good way to put it. And I think Paul, in his remarks, said you're going to see a step function. I mean it's in 2023. Once that green hydrogen comes online, the -- that margin is going to be in line with our GenDrive margins, if not higher.

Excellent. So my second question, Andy, has to do with a broader question from investors from most companies. But inflation and the scarcity of labor is impacting a lot of projects, right? It's impacting the cost to build, it's messing up time lines. And it's obviously a major headache for different companies. So your Georgia facility is obviously coming on right online, right when you expected it in February. Can you talk about what you've done to mitigate these impacts? And if these factors are maybe availability of major components is likely to impact your build-out schedule, both in green hydrogen and in the other initiatives over the course of this year?

Yes. I think that's a real good question, Craig. And when I think about it, we don't try to hire people. We try to ask people to come join Plug Power. And I think that when you think about the acquisitions we've made, which we're actually target about a good deal about how you make sure you have the workforce to execute. And we talked publicly about them being acquisitions, but they're about people who want to join Plug Power and share the vision. We've been able to grow this workforce since COVID started, since -- to 700 to 2,500 because people want to work here. It is in a place where there's passion, there's commitment to getting things done. I mean it's why I've been able to attract people from Tesla. I mean, I probably -- my manufacturing organization is filled with Tesla folks now. It's that mission that I think attracts people and have allowed us to work through what's been challenging to many companies. I don't want to downplay the supply chain issues. And as I mentioned on this call earlier, every day I start out working supply chain. And one of the reasons I have Dave and supply chain people who worked at Tesla is they were really good at working through getting components during the crisis. And we work it every day. We're on the phone every day. We're pushing it every day. And I'm not going to tell you it's going to disappear tomorrow, but we're constantly thinking through what can be substituted, what could be changed. All I can say is that we haven't used COVID inflation for supply chain as reasons not to hit our numbers. It's a reason we doubled our sales last year, and it's the reason we will meet our goals this year.

That's good to hear. Well, keep up the good work. We're looking forward to another exciting year.

I am too, Craig. And we have one more, Teal? No? It's back to me. I really appreciate everyone joining our call today. It's going to be an exciting 2022. We are going to hit our numbers. We've laid out clear objectives and really look forward to talking to you on our earnings call on March 1. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation and interest in Plug Power. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.