PNC Infratech Limited (PNCINFRA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the PNC Infratech Limited Q4 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call hosted by PhillipCapital India Private Limited. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that this conference is being recorded. This conference call may contain forward-looking statements about the company, which are based on beliefs, opinions and expectations of the company as on the date of this call. These statements are not the guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vikram Suryavanshi from PhillipCapital India Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, Lisa. Good afternoon, and very warm welcome to everyone. On behalf of PhillipCapital, I am pleased to welcome you all on the PNC Infratech Limited Fourth Quarter FY '24 Earnings Conference Call. We have with us Managing Director of the company, Mr. Yogesh Jain, along with senior management team. We'll begin with the opening remarks from the management, followed by interactive question and answer session. Over to you, sir, for opening comments.

Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of PNC Infratech Limited, I extend a warm welcome to everyone for joining us today on this call. I have with me Mr. T. R. Rao, Director Infra; Mr. D. K. Agarwal, CFO; Mr. D. K. Maheshwari, VP Finance; and Strategic Growth Advisors, our Investor Relations advisers. We have uploaded the financial results and investor presentation on the stock exchanges and company's website for your reference. Initially, I would like to mention key updates of the industry, followed by operational developments of the company and highlights of financial performance during the fourth quarter and for financial year '24, post which we will be happy to answer your questions. During the financial year '23-'24, MoRTH, including NHAI and NHIDCL constructed 12,349 kilometers of national highways, making the second highest aggregate route plan constructed in a year in its history. However, as per the industry reports, road construction activities during financial year '25 would be lesser and will be in a range between 11,100 kilometers and 11,500 kilometers. This anticipated decline compared to financial year '24 is largely attributed to too much slowdown in projects awarding process during financial year '24, persistent land acquisition and other issues in already awarded projects. As far as NHAI is concerned, during financial year '24, 6,644 kilometers length of national highways constructed, exceeding the target of 6,544 kilometers set for, which is higher by nearly 20% as compared to 5,544 kilometers constructed by NHAI during the financial year '23. MoRTH announced plans to integrate an additional 6,000 kilometers of high-speed highways into the country's national highways network. This ambitious initiative will tremendously improve connectivity and increase efficiency of transportation across the geographies of country. As mentioned earlier, on new contract awarding front, the sector witnessed very subdued activity during the entire financial year '24. Slowdown in new projects awarding activity will have significant negative impact on the industry over the next 2 years, particularly in achieving the construction targets and revenue by both authorities as well as by the developers. However, the industry is hopeful that bidding and awarding activity will pick up after the conclusion of the ongoing general elections and a large number of projects would be awarded during financial year 2025. On 16th May '24, company subsidiary, MP Highways Private Limited, received communication from MPRDC authority conveying approval for the extension of concession period for Gwalior-Bhind BOT toll project by 2 years, 9 months, 18 days, that is up to 25th March 2028. On 8th March '24, company received completion certificate from NHAI for Lucknow Ring Road EPC project of value INR 1,069 crores affecting from 29th February 2024. On 7th May '24, company received provisional completion certificate for Meerut-Nazibabad HAM project from NHAI with effect from 4th May '24. Company executed construction agreement with MPRDC for Western Bhopal Bypass HAM project on 7th March 2024. On 26th February, '24, Madhya Pradesh Public Works Department awarded an EPC contract, namely construction of an elevated corridor in Gwalior for a contract value of INR 699 crores. Company's strong balance sheet and financial prudence continue to result in credit rating upgrades, which enables company to secure debt at competitive rates. Moving on to the operational and financial performance of the company. Out of the company's 28 fund-based projects, 3 are BOT toll projects, 2 are BOT annuity projects, and 23 are HAM projects. Aggregate bid project cost of 23 HAM projects is around INR 30,000 crores, which is one of the largest highway HAM project portfolio in the country. Out of the total 23 HAM projects, company achieved PCOD and COD for 10 projects, and 9 projects are under construction, 3 projects achieved financial closure, and appointed dates yet to be declared. For one project, company executed concession agreement in March '24. Regarding equity investment, total requirement for these 23 HAM projects is INR 3,092 crores. As of March '24, company already invested INR 1,975 crores, and the remaining equity of INR 1,117 crores is to be invested over the next 2 to 3 years. The internal accruals that would be generated over the next 2 to 3 years should be adequate to meet the above equity investment requirement. As of 31st March '24, the company's unexecuted order book stands at INR 15,490 crores, which does not include the contract value of 2 EPC contracts recently secured for an aggregate value of INR 4,994 crores. Upon inclusion of these 2 EPC projects, our unexecuted order book would be over INR 20,400 crores, which is 2.7x of financial year '24 revenue. Out of the unexecuted order book of INR 15,490 crores, highway and expressway contracts contribute around 70%, while water and canal projects contribute around 30%. Substantial progress achieved in rural drinking water projects under the Jal Jeevan Mission during the financial year '24 by company. During financial year '24, company had booked a total revenue of INR 1,906 crores in the drinking water segment, while during the fourth quarter, booked a revenue of INR 555 crores. I would like to share that one of the company's subsidiary, namely PNC Kanpur Highways Limited, executed a settlement agreement with NHAI on 9th May 2024 for INR 398.6 crores under the Vivad Se Vishwas scheme, which is expected to be received in quarter 1 of financial year '25. Further, another subsidiary of the company, PNC Raebareli Highways Private Limited received INR 117.15 crores from NHAI in April 2024, pursuant to a settlement agreement executed with NHAI Vivad Se Vishwas II scheme. Now I would present the results for quarter ended March 31, '24 and financial year '24. Before discussing financial performance, I would also like to highlight that during first quarter of financial year '23, the company received INR 37 crores towards bonus for early completion of Purvanchal Expressway Package-VI that is included in the revenue of financial year '23, whereas during financial year '24, the company has received INR 297 crores towards arbitration award for 2 projects, Dholpur-Morena of NHAI and Gurgaon-Nuh-Rajasthan border of HSRDC, Haryana. I would also like to highlight that financial year '23 includes revenue of INR 251 crores from Eastern Peripheral Expressway project, which is not adjusted from financial year '23 financials. Stand-alone revenue for fourth quarter of financial year '24 is INR 2,342 crores, which is higher by 11% as compared to INR 2,115 crores in the fourth quarter of financial year '23. The EBITDA for the fourth quarter is INR 565 crores, which is higher by 101% as compared to INR 281 crores in the fourth quarter of financial year '23. The EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter of financial year '24 is 24.1%. The profit for the fourth quarter of financial year '24 is INR 402 crores as compared to INR 184 crores in the fourth quarter of financial year '23, a growth of 118% on a year-to-year basis. The PAT margin for the fourth quarter of financial year '24 is 17.2%. The stand-alone revenue for financial year '24 is INR 7,699 crores, which is higher by 9% as compared to INR 7,061 crores in financial year '23. The stand-alone EBITDA of financial year '24 is INR 1,277 crores, which is higher by 34% as compared to INR 954 crores in financial year '23. The stand-alone profit for financial year '24 is INR 850 crores as compared to INR 611 crores in financial year '23, with a growth of 39%. The PAT margin for financial year '24 is 11%. Consol revenue of fourth quarter of financial year '24 is INR 2,600 crores as compared to INR 2,305 crores in fourth quarter of financial year '23, a growth of 13%. The consolidated EBITDA for fourth quarter of financial year '24 is INR 736 crores as compared to INR 411 crores in the fourth quarter of financial year '23, a growth of 79%. The EBITDA margin for fourth quarter of financial year '24 is 28.3%. The consol PAT for fourth quarter of financial year '24 is INR 396 crores as compared to INR 146 crores in fourth quarter of financial year '23, a growth of 171%. The PAT margin for fourth quarter of financial year '24 is 15.2%. The consol revenue for financial year '24 is INR 8,650 crores, which is higher by 9% as compared to INR 7,956 crores in financial year '23. The consol EBITDA for financial year '24 is INR 2,005 crores as compared to INR 1,600 crores in financial year '23, a growth of 25%. The EBITDA margin for financial year '24 is 23.2%. The consol profit for financial year '24 is INR 909 crores as compared to INR 658 crores in financial year '23, a growth of 38%. The PAT margin for financial year '24 is 38%. As on 31st March '24, our net working capital cycle is 102 days as compared to 106 days as on 31st March '23. Our net worth on a stand-alone basis is INR 4,781 crores as on 31st March '24, whereas total stand-alone debt is INR 382 crores. The total cash and bank balance as on 31st March '24 is INR 616 crores. We have a net surplus of INR 234 crores. This translates to net debt to equity of 0.8x. On consol basis, our net worth is INR 5,185 crores, whereas total debt is INR 8,016 crores as on 31st March '24. The total cash and bank balance, including current investment is INR 1,793 crores. This translates to net debt to equity of 1.52x. With this, we now open the floor for questions and answers. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital.

Sir, just first on the guidance front. So on the revenue front, what's the guidance for FY '25 and EBITDA margin. Hopefully, you will be maintaining at 13%, 13.5%, and also on the order info front, given the kind of INR 5,000 crores that we have already received, how much more we are likely to get, and if also possible, in terms of segment HAM, toll, or the water and the other segment, if possible?

Thank you. See, for FY '25, we express our guidance of 10% over FY '24, given the prevalent position. And EBITDA, as the industry knows that the competition has increased, particularly during the last 2 to 3 years, so to secure the projects and all, then we have to be also competitive as far as the industry. So the EBITDA margin for the FY '25, we are expecting around 12% to 12.5%, which is slightly lesser than what it was earlier. And on the business development front, as you had said that we had already secured INR 5,000 crores worth of projects. So we are expecting another INR 8,000 crores to INR 10,000 crores of new projects before end of FY '25, because a robust pipeline of projects are there, which are for bidding. Yes, as far as the mix of bidding is concerned, we'll continue to bid EPC and HAM projects, which will be our priority. And we are also looking at the BOT opportunities. But there, we'll be very cautious and would like to be very comfortable in case of BOT toll projects, where the revenue risk is important.

Sir, when we are saying that we are lowering our EBITDA margin from 13%, 13.5% to 12%, 12.5%, given whatever the orders that we have received, that will be flowing into revenue this year. The new orders maybe will not be contributing that much. So does that mean that the new orders are even coming at much lesser margin? And maybe, going forward, from FY '26, maybe this margin number can further come down to 11%, 11.5%?

No, we don't expect that it will further come down to 11%, 11.5% going forward during the FY '26 and onwards. But this also, 12.5%, we are expressing that we'll be executing the new projects also, a sizable amount during the FY '25. The new projects, as we said that the competition is at a higher level, so we'll be bidding more competitively. So as far as the existing projects are there, that will be around 13%. The mix overall would be around 12.5%. And we don't expect that this will come down further sizably during FY '26 and going forward.

Okay. Got it. Secondly, needed a couple of data points of project-wise order book, and equity for '25, '26 and '27, if possible. And before that, if possible, 10% growth on the revenue we are looking at for FY '25. For FY '26, if we get another INR 10,000 crores, INR 15,000 crores, then also for '26 also similar kind of growth, or it can be a much higher growth that we can look at in FY '26?

It would be speculative as of now to say how these things will unfold. But the growth will not be less than 10% in FY '25 -- FY '26.

Yes. Sir, first in terms of the equity breakup of '25, '26, '27, and then the project-wise order book, I will ask.

So total equity requirement on 31st March is INR 1,117 crores, and out of that INR 640 crores will be required to infuse in the year FY '25, INR 330 crores in FY '26, and INR 145 crores in FY '27.

Okay. And in terms of the project-wise order book, so first is, irrigation project is how much?

Irrigation is INR 932 crores, sir.

INR 932 crores. Second is this Hardoi project, which was INR 424 crores as on December?

It is, Hardoi, INR 268 crores; and Mathura Bypass Hathras is INR 184 crores, Challakere INR 92 crores.

Okay. This Gaju Village-Devinagar is INR 168 crores?

Yes.

Okay, INR 168 crores. And Haryana Rail project?

Yes, INR 745 crores.

INR 745 crores. Okay. Got it. And retention money, mobilization advance, and HAM debtors, sir?

Advance from client is INR 417 crores and retention is INR 130 crores, sir.

INR 130 crores. HAM debtors and water debtors, if possible?

HAM debtors is INR 660 crores.

Okay. And water debtors, sir?

It is INR 920 crores, sir.

The next question is from the line of [ Siddharth Shah from Max Overseas ].

Sir, there was an asset monetization of 12 projects that you had announced a few months back. Can you please tell us when is that money going to be received? And any debt reduction plans of the company?

As we have discussed earlier that there are 2 phases in our monetization. Out of 12 projects, in first phase there are 7 projects and in second phase, there are 5 projects. Mostly, we have received the -- there are certain condition precedents which we have to fulfill, and major are NOC from lenders and NOC from NHAI. So majority of the lenders of first tranche assets have already been received and others are expected within the next 4 to 6 weeks. And as regards to the NOC from NHAI, financial consultants of NHAI reviewed the NOC application and observations made by them have already been clarified, compiled with. We are closely following up with finance, concerned technical department, and project implementation unit of NHAI. For accrediting the approval process, NOC from NHAI for the first tranche is expected by middle of July. So we expect that we should receive the payment of first tranche, which is INR 5,015 crores enterprise value, by 30th of September.

Okay. And sir, any debt reduction plans after this money is received?

Certainly. The total debt in 12 projects is INR 6,479 crores. Yes, yes, it will reduce directly.

We'll move on to the next question that is from the line of Bharani Vijayakumar from Avendus.

What is the order inflow that we saw in FY '24 for PNC in rupees crore?

As our MD has mentioned, the awarding activity during the FY '24 was very subdued. So we got 1 HAM project of INR 1,174 crores. And we got 1 EPC project of INR 699 crores, which comes to INR 1,873 crores. That was the order inflow during the FY '24.

Okay. And how much was the awarding done by NHAI in kilometers in '24?

That we don't have readily -- figures are not readily available with us. We'll share you separately. But however, whatever the awarding target of NHAI was set forth before beginning of FY '24, what award they made is much lesser than that was set forth.

And according to you, how much is the near-term bidding pipeline of NHAI, say, in EPC, HAM, and the BOT separately, sir, where we would be bidding?

See, there is around -- over 90 projects we have identified for evaluation, comprising 20 EPC projects, around 60 HAM projects, and 30 DBFOT toll projects, for a total value of more than INR 100,000 crores. That's what -- otherwise, out of that -- see, maybe next 2, 3 months, these projects is to bid out, but as NHAI as a whole, they floated more than 150 projects with an aggregate value of INR 1.5 lakh crores. So the projects identified by us for bidding would be around INR 1 lakh crores worth of projects.

Okay. And you're telling it would be without -- this 150 number of projects would be bid out in FY '25?

Yes, yes.

Okay. Do you see any preference for BOT projects first before EPC and HAM projects are awarded?

No, no. Our order of preference would be in the sequence of EPC is our first preference, followed by HAM, then our last preference would be BOT toll.

I'm asking for NHAI, sir. So is NHAI going to prefer BOT?

NHAI would definitely prefer BOT, but NHAI is also, and ministry is also having an internal evaluation system. Until and unless BOT projects are viable on a stand-alone basis within limited grant that what they'll be providing, so otherwise, they are going on a HAM mode, because BOT projects would be self-sustaining and sufficient revenue should be coming from them. So they just can't go for a BOT project -- BOT mode for all the projects what they're envisaging.

Okay. And in the recent MSRDC projects that we won, how much was the competition and how much margins we are expected to make, sir?

There was a substantial competition by all big players. And there, we are expecting an EBITDA margin of, as we said, between 12.5% and 13%.

Okay. Last question on this arbitration that we received on the Vivad Se Vishwas scheme. So this arbitration money we had booked in '24, that is 4Q FY '24. Has it been received by us or yet to be received?

A fair amount we have received already.

FY '24, we received before 31st March, that is on 31st.

It is around INR 255 crores.

In 1 of the projects in Vivad Se Vishwas, it's INR 255 crores. Apart from, we also received INR 45 crores in another project of EPC of HSRDC.

And what would be the adjusted PAT and EBITDA for FY '25 apart from this arbitration?

As I said, that will be 12.5%. If you don't consider the arbitration awards that we'll be getting during FY '25.

Sorry, I asked for '24, what would be the adjusted EBITDA and PAT?

Yes, '24, I stand correct, it was 13.13%.

Absolute number can you give sir, EBITDA and PAT, adjusted for the one-off income, sir?

It is INR 980 crores, without taking the consideration of arbitration, EBITDA margin. INR 980 crores.

INR 980 crores. And PAT?

PAT is INR 630 crores.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Rohan Kamath from Tiger Asset.

I have 2 questions. One is, could you provide me details of industry-wise breakup of the current order inflow?

The expected order inflow you are telling?

Yes, I want to know that could you provide a detailed industry-wise breakup of the current order inflow?

So see, whatever unexecuted order book is there, as mentioned by my colleague, more than 70% is the highway and expressway projects and around 30% is from our rural drinking water and AP Canal project. So that is the only 2 segments primarily we are operating, only the roads and highways and another is the rural drinking water and a small irrigation project. That is the breakup.

Okay. And I want to know what is your order inflow guidance for FY '25?

FY '25, we have already received projects worth of INR 5,000 crores we secured, we stood L1. And apart from that, we are expecting another INR 8,000 crores to INR 10,000 crores. So the cumulative, it would be around INR 13,000 crores to INR 15,000 crores during FY '25, order inflow.

The next question is from the line of Vaibhav Shah from JM Financial Limited.

Sir, if I remove the exceptional part from the revenue for the quarter 4, so there was a 3% decline in the total revenue. There was a significant growth in the water revenue on a Y-o-Y basis. So what has led to the weak revenue on the highway side? Is there any project specific issues in the quarter 4?

See, quarter 4 of FY '24 vis-a-vis the quarter 4 of FY '23, what has happened, during the quarter 4, we got the PCODs for quite a few projects, starting from November and October. So these projects we achieved and completed, so the revenues were a bit lesser when compared to FY '23, when these projects were peak in its execution from particularly in the road sector. So there is a very marginal decline in Q4 of FY '24 in comparison to Q4 of FY '23. Otherwise, there is no other major reason. That time those projects were in peak. Now those projects are in a completion stage.

So sir, are there any slow-moving projects in the order backlog right now, which are under execution?

No. Almost all projects are going as per the schedule only. There is no major slowdowns in any particular quarter.

And sir, for the JJM projects, what revenue do we expect for FY '25?

For FY '25, our guidance for the JJM is INR 2,500 crores.

Okay. And sir, when do we expect to receive the ADs for the HAM project, for the 4 HAMs?

See. One of the 3 HAM projects, that is Varanasi to Kolkata, we are expecting maybe in a couple of months, maybe before July. And the other 2 projects, land acquisition is in progress. So we expect in the current financial year. And similarly, for Western Bhopal Bypass of MPRDC, we executed concession agreement in the month of March. So NHAI has got time to finally declare the appointed date and financials for this. So that also we are expecting in Q3, appointed date.

Okay. And sir, lastly, when do we expect to start the work for the MSRDC project?

See, now...

Last quarter -- we are expecting in last quarter of current financial year.

In the last quarter or the third quarter?

Yes, last quarter.

The next question is from the line of Parikshit Kandpal from HDFC Securities.

Sir, my first question is on the Phase 1 of EV, which is INR 5,015 crores. So how much is the equity value in this, which you will realize?

Equity value, first phase is around INR 1,000 crores.

How much, sir?

INR 1,000 crores -- INR 999 crores.

This is our receivable which you will get, right, and rest INR 4,000 crores will go towards that?

Yes, INR 1,000 crores equity we have infused, and we are expected to receive around -- INR 5,015 crores is the enterprise value.

Okay. So in that, how much is the debt, sir? That is what I'm asking. Out of INR 5,015 crores, how much is debt?

INR 3,560 crores.

Okay. So INR 5,015 crores minus INR 3,560 crore is the equity realization or the inflow to you.

Right.

Okay. And second question is on the bid pipeline, sir. So if you can help us understand what is the bid pipeline segment-wise in the state of UP, both on the state side and NHAI side?

We have a big pipeline. As we mentioned, around 150 projects, NHAI has floated. Out of that, we identified around 100 projects. But right now, the state-wise breakup is not readily available. We'll share with you separately.

But what about the state projects, any majors? Like after Ganga Expressway, do you think any other projects are lined up for the state of UP in metro, water, or JJM, state highways, any pipeline there which you can initialize or see in the next 6 months?

No. As of now, none of the states have declared any major projects announced, particularly in the road sector.

What about the JJM pipeline, sir? Any sense on the JJM pipeline for UP state?

In UP, almost all 5 phases they awarded. UP, we don't see. We need to see the other states, but the clarity will emerge only post general elections, because the governments are not coming out with any concrete plan until general elections get over. So only in the next quarter, we'll be in a better position to assess what could be the bidding opportunities across the sectors.

Now you're highlighting, sir, INR 15,000 crores of inflows, when this year is expected to be a truncated year towards ordering. What gives you so much of confidence? Because we don't see any major projects announcement by state government. So you have already won INR 5,000 crores, but another INR 10,000 crores, you need to rely heavily on how NHAI does. And in that, you are also focusing more on EPC and HAM. So in absence of any major state projects, how do you think that you will reach that number of INR 15,000 crores?

See, historically, our revenues and our BD has been from the NHAI only, if you see it. And now, as I said, 150 projects, which amounts to INR 1.5 lakh crores. As our Managing Director said, there are 6,000 kilometers of high-speed highways, which would roughly translate into INR 2.5 lakh crore to INR 3 lakh crore. Definitely, government will expedite these projects. So we are a bit confident that the total pipeline during the FY '25 would be more than INR 2 lakh crores. It could be even touching INR 3 lakh crore. In that sense that what we are assuming, INR 8,000 crores to INR 10,000 crores is not an unrealistic figure.

Okay. Sir, just the last question on this Vivad se Vishwas scheme. So how much is the total pending collection claims, which is yet to be recognized or received, though it has been awarded or settled, but yet to be recognized, and when do you expect it?