Precinct Properties NZ Ltd & Precinct Properties Investments Ltd (PCT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Precinct Properties 2024 Half Year Results. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Scott Pritchard, the Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Rachel, and good morning, everybody, and welcome to the 2024 half year results briefing for Precinct Properties. I am Scott Pritchard, and I'm joined today by George Crawford, Precinct's Deputy Chief Executive; and Richard Hilder, Precinct's Chief Financial Officer. The program for today's call is outlined on Page 2 of the presentation. I'll shortly provide an overview of the highlights of the result before spending some time discussing the major themes that we are focused on at the moment. I'll then hand over to Richard, who will cover the financial results and our capital management position before George provides an overview of our capital partnerships and an update on the investment market. Following that, I'll provide an overview of our development progress and offer some concluding comments. As usual, we will be delighted to answer any questions that you might have at the conclusion of the call. Moving to the highlights page. Our strategic progress has continued during the first half with the entry into a conditional development agreement with Eke Panuku for the development of the Downtown Car Park in Auckland. This is an enormously exciting project for Precinct, and I'll discuss this in more detail shortly. In addition, we have commenced 2 new build-to-sell residential apartment projects on behalf of capital partners in the period. These 2 projects signify confidence from our investors and equate to around $300 million of new projects. As previously announced, we have also settled the new joint venture alongside Ngati Whatua Orakei to invest in Te Toangaroa and have concluded the sale of Mason Bros. and Wynyard Quarter, strengthening our balance sheet. Pleasingly, our directly held portfolio has performed very well in the period with funds from operations growing by 4.3%, reflecting the strong occupier market that we are in. While the directly held portfolio grew our FFO, our adjusted funds from operations for the period was down to $0.0326 per share as a result of higher interest costs and higher tax costs. Despite this, we are pleased to reaffirm our full year dividend guidance of $0.0675 per share. Operationally, our portfolio has performed well with 98% occupancy and an extended weighted average lease term. The level of leasing activity was lower in the first half compared to last year but continued to show the level of demand with 16% growth recorded across the office leasing. We also completed our One Queen Street development, the Deloitte Centre, with Deloitte now and occupation and the InterContinental hotel up and running. We also successfully opened Willis Lane in Wellington, a new food and beverage precinct beneath the Aon Center. Finally, and very pleasing for our residential business, we have successfully completed the Onehunga Mall Club, a $92 million residential apartment building. Turning to Page 4, key themes. Unsurprisingly, our focus on capital partnerships remains elevated as engagement with direct investors is ongoing. We are continuing to see strong demand for residential and living sectors with high levels of population growth and limited supply, leading to supply-demand imbalances. Demand for core office investment remains subdued. However, following the rebalancing of many portfolios globally and recognizing where interest rates are landing, we do expect demand to return in the near to midterm. Most pleasing has been the level of engagement with existing and new investors who are keen to partner with Precinct as we look to grow our range of opportunities. George will discuss this more shortly. The second major theme is the investment market. As noted, direct investors, particularly global investors, hold a view that the rising interest rate cycle is over, which is improving the outlook for investment. Undoubtedly, where value exists, investors retain an appetite to invest with material pools of capital-seeking opportunities. And finally, the construction market, which has continued to put pressure on cost to build for many years, is finally showing signs of some easing with costs on our most recent construction tenders providing some slight relief to construction cost estimates. I'd now like to hand over to Rich to take you through the financial results.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Precinct moved to a stable structure from July this year. As a result, we have made a number of changes to the financial statements and added new disclosures. In preparing these accounts, all intercompany transactions such as income and expenses have been fully eliminated. Now moving to the results. Total comprehensive income after tax for the half was $12.9 million. This compared to $0.6 million for the same period last year. This increase was primarily due to the revaluation loss on the investment properties recorded in the comparable period. Independent valuations we completed across all of Precinct's partnership assets totaling $700 million [indiscernible] 61 Molesworth Street asset, which came on to Precinct's balance sheet in December. Taking into consideration these valuations inconsistent with policy, a corresponding internal valuation review for Precinct's wholly owned assets was undertaken. This review indicated there was no material revaluation movement against the carrying values as at 31 December, apart from the Freyberg Building in Wellington, which recorded a $6.3 million devaluation. The balance of the portfolio benefited from market rental growth, which partially offset moderate cap rate expansion and resulted in no material value movement. Following these revaluations, the fair value movement and financial instruments and the loss on sale recorded in the period, Precinct's NTA per share at balance date decreased to $1.35. Turning to the next slide. For the first time, we have presented operating income based on the [indiscernible] underlying funds from operations, which relate directly to our dividend policy. This provides for a better measure of a building's operating performance and removes historical accounting adjustments such as straight-line rent and amortizations. FFO from directly owned assets increased 1.5%. However, after adjusting for transactions and developments, investment property FFO grew by 4.3%. The Auckland office portfolio underpinned the uplift with strong rental growth. Despite foot traffic increasing 14% to 6.7 million for the first 6 months, FFO at Commercial Bay retail fell around 7%. This performance reflected increased vacancy as the center entered a period of stabilization following its opening. Overall, operating performance in the period was robust with operating income before indirect expenses increasing 6.8%. Precinct's operating businesses contributed $1 million to this performance, while management services generated $4.1 million from partnerships and third parties. The next slide provides a breakdown of our key performance measure, AFFO. Pleasingly, underlying FFO, which includes our property and operating investments combined with our management business rose 5.5% to $74.7 million. Despite the strong growth, higher indirect expenses and tax expenses in the period resulted in both funds from operations and adjusted funds from operations falling around 4.6% compared to the comparable period. While down on the comparable period, AFFO was consistent with the immediately prior period. As the business transitions its strategy, the benefits continue to materialize. Management fee income rose $2.5 million in the period, contributing around 19 basis points of AFFO and reducing Precinct's overall net management expense to $100,000 compared to $2 million for the comparable period. The first half dividend of $0.03375 per share reflects an AFFO payout ratio of 104%. We remain confident in achieving AFFO of around $0.0675 per share for FY '24. Turning to the next slide. During the period, we filed 40 and 44 Bowen Street in Wellington, disposed Mason Bros. and issued a $150 million subordinated convertible note. These initiatives have reduced gearing and strengthened the balance sheet. Gearing at 31 December, as measured under our borrowing covenants which disregards subordinated debt, is around 32% against a covenant of 50%. As noted in June, our hedging levels are expected to increase following the gearing and associated repayment of floating debt. Hedging for the balance of the year is around 90% with a weighted average interest rate of 5.3%. Looking forward, with the completion of Bowen House and One Queen Street, we continue to forecast an improvement in our interest coverage ratio. A highlight for the period was securing our first green bank facility, which will be used to fund the Molesworth development. This project is targeting a 6-star green star rating, and it is pleasing to have secured an attractive facility, which reflects the quality of both the asset and the underlying lease. We are pleased with the capital management initiatives achieved in the period and the progress made to date, but we remain focused on the future funding initiatives to support our strategic growth. The business is well funded with a [indiscernible] debt maturity profile and a diverse source of funding. Our approach to capital management remains proactive, and we continue to explore capital recycling initiatives. And we consider further convertible notes depending on opportunities. Finally, we continue to have confidence in our long-term earnings outlook. Despite rising interest rates and [indiscernible] changes, strong underlying AFFO growth in the period demonstrates a well-positioned portfolio that benefits from underwriting and structured reviews. The move to a stable structure allows Precinct to grow its capital partnering strategy and to participate in residential development. Management fees are expected to grow with -- from existing partnerships, but also from new opportunities such as Downtown Car Park and new residential development projects. As Precinct's participation in residential development increases, realizable profits may lead to future earnings volatility. We remain focused on providing a stable and sustainable dividend profile and will, therefore, ensure the dividend policy responds to this. Thank you. I'll now hand over to George.

Thanks, Richard. Good morning, everyone. On Page 12, we reiterate our capital partnering strategy that we set out in August. This remains focused on leveraging our market position, the capabilities of our team and our track record to take advantage of opportunities to drive shareholder returns through development and investment activities. By investing alongside capital partners, we create alignment. And by being local with deep market knowledge, we aim to provide our partners with superior investment performance. The key objective for Precinct is to improve our return on equity. We can use our balance sheet more effectively and participate in a greater range of value-add activities alongside partners' capital. On Page 13, we are pleased with progress on our capital partnering strategy over the last 6 months. The investment market for core office remains subdued. However, against this backdrop, we have achieved the sale of Mason Bros. building in the period, which supports continued delivery of our strategy. There are signs of increasing investor interest on the back of the view that globally, interest rates are around peak. However, at this point in the cycle, we are increasingly focused on the residential and value-add sectors. Key highlights over the last 6 months have been our $140 million joint venture with Ngati Whatua Orakei and PAG in Auckland, which settled in September as well as progress on our build-to-sell residential business, which is set out further on Page 14. Notwithstanding the current challenging residential market, the move to scale up our residential development platform is progressing very well. We've commenced 2 new build-to-sell apartment developments in the last quarter with a build-out value of around $300 million. As Scott noted, Onehunga Mall Club has also just completed while York House and [indiscernible] in marketing and procurement. The equity capital for these projects is provided entirely by our capital partners, while Precinct has invested $30 million of subordinated debt into these developments. We believe the current market dynamics are ideal for growing our pipeline, and we're actively considering a number of opportunities under our residential strategy. We will invest directly to secure opportunities where value is compelling and they support our capital partnering strategy. Pleasingly, we're seeing strong interest from funders and potential capital partners to participate in Precinct's residential projects. The long-term rationale for this strategy is set out on Page 15. Simply put, New Zealand has not been building enough homes for some time and with continued population growth, demand is set to persist. In our view, the shortfall will be most pronounced in Auckland, and there are a few developers with the expertise and access to capital to deliver multiunit projects at scale. Moving through to the investment update on Page 17. We continue to see strong office leasing in Auckland and Wellington, reflecting the outperformance of quality buildings and strong locations in both markets. Across the portfolio, we've seen a 16.4% re-leasing spread in the period, albeit across a fairly low level of new leasing, which was all in Auckland. The portfolio is now 11% underrented, which will support further rental growth. For Auckland, as set out on Page 18, overall market vacancy has fallen with the prime market continuing to significantly outperform. The research houses are forecasting a return to more modest growth. And while we acknowledge that there is more cost focus amongst occupiers, we think that high economic rents, which are driven by replacement costs, will continue to underpin rental growth for quality space. In Wellington, the market remains very tight, which is continuing to support market rental levels. However, a lot of growth in gross rental is being consumed by operating expenses. And it also remains to be seen how the change in government will impact on demand. Thank you, and I'll now hand back to Scott.

Thanks, George, and turning to Page 21. Precinct's exposure to development risk has changed materially over the past 2 years, reflecting the changing nature of our business. At our peak, Precinct had around $1.5 billion of development exposure, which was the result of all developments being developed for Precinct's 100% ownership. As indicated over the past 12 months, Precinct's preferred approach is to now seek direct investment from aligned partners for our developments, which has now resulted in the current development pipeline being just 35% invested by Precinct. This capital-light approach ensures that Precinct can participate in a wider set of opportunities and drive higher returns on capital through the amalgamation of development profits and management fees. Over the page, we set out details of the pipeline with $567 million in office developments and $375 million in residential developments underway. Both office developments are scheduled for completion in 2025 and pleasingly remain on program and on budget. Page 23 sets out further details of the residential development pipeline with 4 projects at different stages of completion. As George mentioned, the Onehunga Mall Club is now complete with settlements expected to occur in coming weeks, while Domain Collection and FABRIC Stage 2 have recently started construction. York House, a luxury build-to-sell apartment building in [ Parnell ] offering around 40 high-quality units, is expected to start later this year. The final aspect of our development pipeline is the Downtown Car Park. Having concluded the sale with Auckland Council in November last year, all focus now turns on advancing the design and lodging resource consent. Key to our design has been to ensure that the project can be staged, given the size and scale of it. This will assist in terms of attracting capital partners for the project also. As previously indicated, this project will be transformational for the Western edge of Auckland City and consists of premium quality office and high-end residential. Key to its success will be the waterfront connections and laneways created to connect to the wire duct to Britomart via Commercial Bay. As we advance design in the coming months, we look forward to sharing more of our plans for this site. Our expectation is that we will lodge for resource consent midway through this year and expect that construction would likely start in 2 to 3 years' time. And lastly, some concluding comments. There's no doubt that uncertainty remains in both a global and local context. While domestic commentators continue to debate the relationship between inflation and interest rates and whether the next move will be higher or lower, global investors hold a very clear view that the battle against inflation is over and that rates will now trend lower. Locally, we do have some headwinds as higher interest rates continue to impact financial performance and the likely introduction of tax changes to remove depreciation as a tax deduction will have an impact. Despite that backdrop, our markets continue to support Precinct's core portfolio with continued demand for premium-grade space, offering solid rental growth. Our capital partners continue to demonstrate very good demand to invest alongside us, and we are broadening our investable universe to meet this demand. This includes a greater focus on residential and living sectors, which is now reflected in the Downtown Car Park development, too. In summary, the strategic transition that's occurring at Precinct and the growing relationships that have been created with capital partners is expected to support our growth in the future. That concludes our presentation for today, and we'd be happy to take any questions. Back to you, Rachel.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is from Nicholas Hill from Craigs Investment Partners.

Just a couple of ones from me. What was behind the FFO decrease in the Wellington office? Was it due to vacancy, increased incentives or say, like higher rates of insurance hitting gross rents?

Nick, Rich. Yes, I'd say it's largely the last one there, higher rates in insurance that's just coming through hitting gross rents like Bowen.

Okay. And then also, you mentioned the Commercial Bay retail center is continuing to evolve regarding tenant mix. Could you provide some more detail as to what you mean by this and what the mix is?

Yes, Nick, Scott here. A couple of things sort of driving that outcome. We -- in sales, in particular, in September and October were really quite off. And we're seeing a quite significant rebound in November and December. So November and December sales were actually pretty consistent with the previous year, but definitely weak in that September, October period. We have seen some weakness in some of the retailers there. There's no doubt that there's no shortage of foot traffic, and there's no shortage of people that are willing to spend money in the center. So it's just about getting the mix right. We've got 7 or 8 tenancies at the moment that are transitioning where we're looking to find new retailers and looking to really strengthen the mix. So ordinarily, in a retail center like this, you'd probably expect stabilization to occur for about a 2-year period. I think no doubt with the pandemic level of -- the period of time for stabilization is just taking a little bit longer. But look, we remain super confident around its performance with the hotel opening and Deloitte Centre now open, we're seeing more foot terrific. And we have confidence in the center. So just looking forward to the next 6 months.

And then on the valuations, what made Freyberg Building incur a negative revaluation?

Look, we had -- up for the last couple of years, we've actually had really quite high occupancy. [ IID ] was the main contributor to that. They've moved out of the building and have moved back to the premises having -- with those having been strengthened. So it sort of partially reflects occupancy. And then on a residual basis, it also reflects the cost of construction growing and cap rates expanding.

Okay. And then the last one, do you have any update on leasing the space vacated by -- or to be vacated by BNZ [indiscernible]?

Nick, George here. Yes, so they will be out of that phase sort of later on this year -- second half of this year. Our plans for that are to reposition that space. There's quite a bit of capital work to be done. And we're in the market at present with good interest and leasing that space. It's a sort of well-located, well-positioned building. But no further update on leasing at this point.

The next question is from Bianca Fledderus from UBS.

I guess just sort of following up on the question around re-leasing on [indiscernible], but just in general, could you comment a bit around re-leasing conditions post [indiscernible]?

Yes, sure. So office market generally, look, we're continuing to see really good demand. We had a fairly low volume of leasing in the period, but that's because we had a -- we didn't have a lot of space available to lease. On the spaces that we have leased, those were like in our sort of most prime floors within the best buildings. We had one full floor in the HSBC building and really good demand for that where we saw that underpin the sort of rental growth in the period. We do -- we have an expectation that we will see some reduction, given the economic conditions and more of a cost focus coming into businesses. But we haven't yet seen that translate through to lower inquiry. When I say -- what we are seeing with cost focus as rent is one part of the equation, but the cost to fit out are the more significant part. So in particular, I focus on [indiscernible] space as being attractive. And also for occupiers who perhaps have offshore parents, where they're seeing in those markets more pressure there, in particular, again, a cost focus coming through. But overall, at this point, we're continuing to see strong demand.

Yes. Okay. And then second question, just on the Downtown Car Park. Are there any sort of risk there around the [indiscernible] hotel that's in front of it? Like do they have the right to build up further for example or would you particularly look at trying to buy that property, too, that asset?

Look, they -- we have a very good relationship with the owners of [indiscernible]. Yes, they would have an ability to redevelop that site. But town planning rules now would not allow them to build that dimension again. And so if there was to be any extra height, it wouldn't be much, much narrower than what they currently have. So we've designed what we've designed around the Downtown Car Park and the direction we're heading around to mitigate that risk. And there's a recession plan that runs off Key Street that sort of limits the height that they can go to. And then, yes, look, as I said, we've got a very good relationship with those guys. We have lots of discussions around a whole range of matters in regard to Downtown, but I probably can't really share those at the moment.

Okay. And then last question, just on your EPS guidance. Could you comment on what FO payout ratio that would reflect?

So it will be consistent with policy. So it should be around 100%.

The next question is from Nick Mar from Macquarie.

Just following on from Bianca's question around AFFO. Could you just talk through some of the factors driving a pretty strong second half uplift on the first half?

Yes, I'll start off, Nick. It's pretty consistent to last year, we had 2 periods that were -- one was stronger and one was a little bit weaker than the other one. So it's going to be pretty consistent both this year coming. Big ones are probably tax, just a cleanup of some of the tax positions on the assets that were sold last year, 40 and 44, so a little bit more depreciation going through and then the hotel opening as well.

No, that's clear. And then just on resi. I know you've sort of kicked into those 2 projects. Are you able to provide some kind of sort of case study on what the fee streams might look like out of that just from a management perspective, including sort of potential performance fees? Just trying to understand of the, say, $125 million of complete value for FABRIC, what the fees percentage might look like over the life of the project.

Yes, Nick, Scott here. Look, we won't get into the details of the fee regimes that we have on each of those projects and the partners that we have in each of those projects. But it's pretty standard and performance fee regimes that you would expect and probably be aware of in the market. There's nothing abnormal about them. And they're not sort of base [indiscernible] consistent with certainly fee streams that we've been very familiar with in our prior life. So you should be out of [indiscernible] around those.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question is from Rohan Koreman-Smit from Forsyth Barr.

Sorry, just following on again from Bianca and the rest of the questions here. Just on those factors in the second half year, you obviously had initiation or kind of establishment payments in the fee streams coming through in the first half this year. Those won't occur in the second half unless you've got some other partnerships that you're hopefully closing in on. But my understanding is of these resi contracts, you do get quite a decent bump in the first kind of year once construction starts. So are we to assume that the lost establishment payments get made up by these 2 resi projects in the fee income stream?

No, there weren't that many on that. There's only $300,000 on acquisition and disposal fees line. That's 4.2 of the notes that you should be able to go to. So they weren't that -- it wasn't a big driver of that $4.1 million of management fee income here.

Okay. But the development fees on resi, that will be -- there is a decent kind of upfront mobilization payment?

At the moment, that doesn't -- sorry, that doesn't actually come through our management fee line that goes through the PPRL business, which is equity accounted. So that's actually not contributing anything through into the AFFO position at the present.

Okay. Cool. Sorry. Okay. So okay. That's clear. On the hotel opening, though, can you give us some color around what sort of expectations you've gotten for kind of first half or second half contribution -- initial contribution?

We've been very positively surprised by the demand. It's only been 3 weeks. And we've only had about 50% of the rooms open. But rate has been strong, and demand has been strong. The remaining balance of the rooms are either open or about to be opened in the next day or 2. So we expect really good demand for the next couple of months with kind of the outlook for continued visitor numbers from offshore being really strong. So that will go well. And then during the winter months, we expect it to be supported by kind of domestic and corporate. But look, it's really early days, Rohan, but we're really quite pleased with its performance feedback and sort of guest experience and their feedback. So look, I think the second half, it's definitely going to contribute to our financial performance. And then on a long-term basis, we're hoping it's going to contribute not just to that asset, but also to convey in its hospitality offerings as well.

And then final one, you're quite bullish on resi, but you also talked to living sectors. Can you give us an idea of what the risk of that bullishness is? Can we assume you're going to go into some additional space? I know others talk about build to rent. Maybe that's not what you're looking at, but can you just give us an idea of what the other living sectors are that you find attractive?

Yes, sure. I mean I think just to put into context our view around resi, I mean, we're taking a 10-year view on this. And when you sort of stand back from it, there's weakness in the market at the moment, which is allowing us, we think, a great opportunity along with our partners to get started so that on completion, we're in a position where there's not a whole lot of other competing supply. That's the first thing. The second thing is we do expect over the next sort of 24 months for -- 12 to 24 months for the resi market to really start correcting and perhaps begin strengthening again. A lot of the immigrants that are coming in are seeking high-density living, and there's not a lot of high-quality high-density living around. So that's the opportunity that we see exist and is not -- there's not a huge amount of institutional capital that participates in this market. So we're encouraged by that. There are other related but very similar types of living opportunities that we are having a look at. I'm not going to spell them out at the moment, but it's consistent with the types of developments that we've done in the past and certainly strong support for that -- those types of opportunities in the city center context, particularly in Auckland. So we'll report back further once we've got more conviction around it.

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Pritchard for closing remarks.

Look, once again, thanks very much for everyone's support and interest in the business. As we've said a number of times, we're in a -- very much in a transition phase for this organization. And we're really excited about the feedback we're getting from partners that want to invest alongside us, but also really encouraged by the strength of our existing portfolio. And for us now, it's about leveraging our people and leveraging the platform that we've created. So we're excited about what the next sort of 12 to 24 months will offer us. So thanks again, and look forward to taking any other questions that you might have more directly. Cheers.

Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.