Precinct Properties NZ Ltd & Precinct Properties Investments Ltd (PCT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Precinct Properties 2025 Half Year Results. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Scott Pritchard, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Rachel, and good morning, everybody, and welcome to the 2025 Half Year Results briefing for Precinct Properties. I'm Scott Pritchard, and I'm joined today by George Crawford, Precinct's Deputy Chief Executive; Richard Hilder, Precinct's Chief Financial Officer; and Anthony Randell, Precinct's GM for Property. The program for today's call is outlined on Page 2 of the presentation. I'll shortly provide an overview of the highlights of the result before spending some time discussing the major themes that Precinct is currently focused on. I'll then hand over to Richard, who will cover the financial results and our capital management position before George provides an overview of our capital partnerships and the investment market. Anthony will then provide an overview of our investment portfolio and our office markets. Following that, I'll provide an update on our development progress and offer some concluding comments. As usual, we will happily answer any questions on conclusion of the call. Moving to the highlights page. Operationally, we are seeing further dislocation in our markets with premium grade office attracting strong demand, while A grade and below has suffered from a lack of demand. As a consequence, our portfolio occupancy has reduced to 96%, in part, this is due to our approach to growing market rents at the expense of occupancy in order to offset valuation weakness. This prioritization of growing market rents has resulted in very strong leasing spreads, which Anthony will cover later. As signaled, we have deepened our exposure to the living sector with now 3 projects under construction on behalf of capital partners, and we have expanded our pipeline for future residential and build-to-sell and purpose-built student accommodation developments. Pleasingly, following 10 years of progress, we have now completed the Wynyard Quarter Innovation Precinct. Beca House, the final stage is now sectionally complete and Beca have moved in. While pleasing to meet program, this final stage has come with some cost overruns of around 5% to the original budget. Supported by our drive for rental growth, our FFO and AFFO remained consistent with prior periods despite higher vacancy. Our NTA remains largely unchanged at the half, and we are pleased to reaffirm dividend guidance of $0.0675 per share for the full year. Post period, we were pleased to refinance $165 million of retail bonds and USPP notes, which matured and recycled $48 million of capital from the sale of 40 and 44 Bowen Street, the 20% that we held. Turning to Page 4 and key themes. Broadly speaking, we are continuing to be impacted by a weak economy, which is driving reduced demand. That reduced demand differs by sector. And as noted already, premium office remains strong, while discretionary spend remains subdued. In the period, we have seen A-grade office suffer with the introduction of new supply and increased vacancy emerge. Wellington does remain weak with very little demand being evident. The construction market is as competitive as I have seen for many years as activity levels remain very low. This is placing significant pressure on contractors, both main contractors and large subcontractors as they chase work to try and maintain some level of momentum. And in the living sector, while we have seen an increase in activity levels over the last few months, the increases we have seen are off a very low base, and we expect that this market will improve as interest rates and the flow-on effect of reduced supply begin to have an impact. As mentioned in previous announcements, there remains elevated levels of inquiry from direct investors to access this market, which bodes well for our PBSA and build-to-sell pipelines. I'd now like to hand over to Rich to take you through the financial results.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Total comprehensive income after tax for the half was $3.2 million. This compares to $12.9 million for the same period last year. Independent valuations were completed across all of Precinct's partnership assets and for the Molesworth development. The $900 million of partnership assets recorded a 1% revaluation gain for the 12-month period. The valuation outcome reflected no change in cap rates and modest market rental growth. Taking into consideration these valuations and consistent with policy, a corresponding internal valuation review for Precinct's wholly owned assets was undertaken. This review indicated valuation stability and no material revaluation movements. Turning to the next slide. Overall, operating performance in the period was robust with operating income before indirect expenses increasing 4.4%. Funds from operations from directly owned assets increased 7.2%. Adjusting for transactions and development, Commercial Bay retail and one-offs, income from the office portfolio was largely flat. This result reflected lower average occupancy in the period, offset by strong office rental growth of 2.8% for the period. Given a challenging retail environment and occupancy changes throughout the center, it was not surprising to see slightly lower income at Commercial Bay retail. Precinct's operating businesses contributed around $2 million to operating performance. As the hotel nears its 1-year anniversary, it remains in a stabilization phase. Its financial performance is meeting expectations. And pleasingly, we continue to see steadily improving occupancy and revenue per available room. Turning to Slide 8. Underlying funds from operations, which includes our property and operating investments, combined with our management business rose 8.2% to $80.5 million. Income generated from management services totaled $4.1 million, which was consistent to the comparable period. Higher income from investments and associates was offset by lower income from the residential business following the completion of Onehunga Mall Club in 2023. Management expenses increased to $5.3 million due to the in-sourcing of residential management services. Adjusted funds from operations for the period were $0.0323 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 104%. Finally, turning to capital management. We have successfully refinanced $165 million of maturing bonds and USPP notes through a $200 million bank facility and Precinct's first New Zealand wholesale bond. The wholesale bond provides Precinct with a valuable new source of funding. Post balance date, we announced the sale of Precinct's 20% interest in 40 and 44 Bowen Street in Wellington with the proceeds being used to repay bank debt. As the business prepares for further third-party capital growth, associated recent acquisitions have increased gearing as at 31 December, gearing as measured under our borrowing covenants is around 39% against a covenant of 50%. As always, we take a proactive approach to capital management. We believe that an improving investment market and stabilizing valuations will present capital management opportunities for the business. Thank you. I will now hand over to George.

Thanks, Richard. Good morning, everyone. On Slide 11, we've had good progress over the last 6 months on the key objectives for our existing capital partnerships. As Richard touched on, a key transaction has been the sale of our remaining 20% interest in 40 and 44 Bowen to our capital partner, PAG. The sales price of $48 million is in line with the 80% purchase price agreed in November 2022. Agreeing this sale at the same price speaks to the asset's strong investment performance through a challenging market, and we're delighted to have delivered for the partnership with the buildings now 100% leased and having benefited from strong market rental growth. As Scott will cover in more detail, our long lease core investment portfolio with GIC has been significantly strengthened with the completion of Wynyard Stage 3. We also recorded a modest valuation uplift for this portfolio. And considering the sensitivity of long lease assets to interest rates, we expect to continue to deliver investment performance for this partnership. The refurbishment of the 30 Mahuhu Crescent site in the Te Toangaroa joint venture is progressing well and is now close to completion. A competitive construction market has seen refurbishment costs come in materially lower than originally anticipated, and good leasing progress has been made at 8 Tangihua Street with a focus moving to leasing 30 Mahuhu Crescent. Moving to our residential business on the next slide. We've made continued progress since we moved to 100% ownership 6 months ago, with all of the residential project pipeline, which was in place when we established the residential business now under construction. For these projects, Precinct doesn't have any capital deployed other than a mezzanine loan at Fabric Stage 2. Sales volumes remain low, but are improving, and we've seen an uptick in inquiry and sales since interest rate cuts commenced. Reflecting confidence in the market, in September, we secured further investment from Kojima for the York House project and moved this into construction. We have now established a very strong further pipeline of residential projects, comprising 99 College Hill, the Dominion & Valley site, Orams Residential site and the Downtown Car Park. These projects are being funded through to construction commencement on Precinct's balance sheet. They represent the next stage of our residential pipeline, and we're underway with design and consenting in preparation for marketing launch. We will look to secure capital partners to fund construction alongside Precinct. We think that this pipeline represents some of the best sites within the Auckland market and are excited about the opportunity. Turning to student accommodation. We've secured 2 well-located Auckland sites, which can deliver around 1,600 beds in total. Developed design is now complete, and we've lodged for resource consent. The focus now is on construction procurement and funding, and we're in exclusive negotiations with the capital partner for one of the sites. The market for student accommodation continues to be strong with the universities reporting strong enrollments and accommodation demand and government supporting growth in the export education sector. We will continue to explore both university leased and independent operator arrangements for these projects. Turning to Page 14 and consistent with our own projects, the Auckland residential market remains subdued, but there are some positive signs emerging with prices holding steady and slight increases in volumes. Lending volumes have accelerated since the first OCR cut in August '24, maintaining affordability in Auckland in line with the long-term average. We remain confident in the medium-term outlook with demographic shifts supporting the growing downsizer market, driving demand for premium, well-located and higher-spec apartments. This is well aligned with Precinct's strategy of participating in the mid- to upper market segments in strong locations. Lower interest rates will continue to support the market, and we are also hopeful that the government's review of overseas investment rules will provide some relaxation on the restrictions at the upper end of the market. This would be helpful for advancing our development pipeline. Turning to Page 15. The investment and capital markets in New Zealand have seen low levels of transaction in 2024 due to higher interest rates and restrictive credit conditions. However, conditions have stabilized over the last 6 months with a reduction in funding costs and a positive yield spread relative to the cost of debt emerging. We're seeing the early stages of a recovery in investment confidence and expect this to result in an increase in transaction volumes over the next 12 months. Transactions currently are dominated by private investors and smaller lot sizes. However, we expect to see increasing offshore interest, helped by government moves to attract offshore capital, lower interest rates, a weaker New Zealand dollar and importantly, signed occupier markets. For the office sector, we think that the Australian market is a positive lead indicator of returning investor confidence, showing a significant increase in transaction volumes, particularly in Sydney, with office sales volumes up around 60% in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to the same period in '23. As Anthony will touch on next, the office market occupier fundamentals in Auckland remains strong, a key factor supporting increasing investor interest in this market. Thank you, and I'll hand over to Anthony.

Thanks, George, and good morning, everyone. Moving to our investment portfolio on Page 17. The strength of our assets and preference for quality among occupiers continues to be the underlying trend behind our portfolio's performance. While we have seen a reduction in occupancy to 96%, this change reflects our strategic decision to prioritize rental levels over occupancy. This approach has aimed to safeguard the portfolio against any potential valuation reductions in what has been a cap rate expansionary environment. As Richard mentioned, with valuations stabilizing, our primary focus moving forward will be to prioritize occupancy. We expect this shift, along with increasing levels of demand will lift portfolio occupancy moving forward. Currently, the portfolio is secured with a weighted average lease term of 6.3 years with contracted rentals 11% below current market rentals. Pleasingly, across approximately 5,700 square meters of office leasing secured, we are capturing this under-renting with an exceptional 22.8% spread on new leasing and a 5.9% outperformance compared to current market valuation rentals. This continues to highlight the demand for premium, well-located and amenity-rich office space. Leasing demand in the Commercial Bay retail center has picked up with current occupancy at 97%. The retailer mix continues to evolve as the center stabilizes, and we are now seeing trading conditions moderately improve with sales in the period 1.8% up above the same prior period. Turning to Page 18. The themes we are seeing in our portfolio reflect the pronounced and continued 2-tier market in Auckland. This trend shows no signs of abating with vacancy increasing in both the secondary market and also A-grade markets with premium grade remaining below 2%. This ultimately has led to a divergence in rental growth between premium sectors and secondary sectors. In the near term, we expect the weaker economy to moderate rental growth. Having said this, limited new supply, high economic rents required for new developments and importantly, an increasing workplace attendance trend should ensure occupied demand and market rental growth is sustained. For Wellington, as noted on Page 19, demand in the occupier market is subdued due to the impact of central government spending and accommodation constraints. However, the outlook for new supply remains modest. Vacancy is low for prime rented assets, and there continues to be demand for good quality, functional and seismically sound assets. Looking ahead, our expectation is that net rental growth will be limited in the short to medium term. Thank you all, and I will now hand back to Scott.

Thanks, Anthony. And turning to the development update. Most notably in the period has been the completion of Wynyard Quarter Innovation Precinct with the sectional completion of Stage 3. Beca House is now complete with 1,400 Beca employees moving and making Wynyard Quarter their working home. This completed Precinct now consists of 4 buildings with a total value of $550 million across around 48,000 square meters. Disappointingly, and as noted previously, Stage 3 has resulted in some cost overruns equivalent to around 5% of the budget due to the state of the construction market, particularly at the initial stages of the project. Moving to Molesworth Street in Wellington. This project remains on track for completion at the end of this year. Fully leased to the New Zealand government on a net lease for 21 years, this property on completion will offer Precinct a world-class 6-star Green Star asset. The Ministry for Foreign Affairs and Trade, our main occupier, has finalized their fit-out plans, and we look forward to them moving in later this year. LT McGuinness, our main contractor, continues to complete the works to an incredibly high standard. Our active residential projects worth a total of $431 million all remain on program, and each project is progressing very well. Our main contractors on each site, Kalmar and GN Construction are performing incredibly well, and it's been very pleasing to expand our contractor base, giving us confidence in how we build our future projects. Each of these 3 contracts are design-build fixed price contracts, which reduces the risk for both us, the developer and for them, the contractor. In terms of the Downtown Car Park project, we are happy with the progress that we are making. As previously disclosed, we are in exclusive negotiations with a very large office occupier and have since commenced discussions with several other office occupiers. It is these discussions and the level of interest being shown that has given us confidence to amend the composition of the scheme, increasing the office component to over 60,000 square meters of net lettable area. Discussions with potential capital partners has now commenced and a key focus for the next 6 months is engagement with main contractors and larger subcontractors to ensure we are appropriately structured the procurement approach for this project. We lodged our demolition and substantive resource consents in July last year. And as requested by us, the substantive consent has recently been notified. Downtown has also been listed as a Fast Track project. We will make a decision about whether we remain with a traditional resource consent pathway or use the Fast Track consent path over the next 2 to 3 months. And finally, some concluding comments. There's no doubt that New Zealand's economy remains weak. While inflation is now under control, elevated interest rates have had a significant impact on New Zealand's economy, and we are now bearing the consequences. The office market has further dislocated with premium grade space performing well and A grade and below suffering from a lack of demand. Offsetting this is a continued expectation of a return to office thematic over the next 12 to 24 months. Our focus on rental growth during valuation weakness has proved to be very important with valuations now stable and peak to trough valuation declines amounting to just 12%. We remain very focused on our capital partnering program and are enthusiastic about the opportunities we have in front of us. Between a development pipeline valued at $3 billion and an engaged group of direct investors, we are excited about what a recovering economy might offer us. Pleasingly, I'm delighted to reconfirm dividend guidance of $0.0675 per share for the full year. As previously indicated, due to the removal of depreciation as a tax deduction, we anticipate a slightly higher payout ratio this year. But due to confidence in our long-term AFFO profile and a desire to maintain a stable dividend, we are comfortable with a higher payout ratio this year. That concludes our presentation, and we would be very happy to take any questions that you might have.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Arie Dekker from Jarden.

The first question was just around the PAG purchase of Bowen Street, which they agreed to acquire. Can you just confirm whether they had a right or call option to acquire the stake that they exercised or whether that was just something that you guys got together with them on?

Arie, it's George here. Yes, without getting into too much detail on the arrangements with them, they did have a right to acquire it, but not an obligation to.

Great. And then just in terms of the GIC partnership, I mean, it was established around the same time a little bit before the PAG partnership. Can you just comment on whether they have any similar rights to those that PAG exercised?

No. So I mean, within -- without sort of speaking to them specifically, you generally have preemptive rights that will exist within the partnership, but nothing along those lines.

Okay. Yes. So you would have to put your stake up or put it up for sale in the case of the GIC partnership?

Yes. Look, there will be preemptive rights that apply on each site and that partnership, but not a call right as such.

Perfect. Just on the leasing status at Wynyard, and there was a note in the accounts around the variable consideration payment that's due from Precinct to PPILP at balance date, $16 million. Can you just confirm that most of that $16 million relates to the cost overruns? And I guess whether there's any sort of material further exposure expected there, either with regards to CapEx or leasing?

Yes, that's right, Arie. That's what that $16 million is. And we're in the process of finalizing the final account with the main contractor at the moment. So I don't think that there'll be anything material beyond that.

And yes, the 74% leasing at Wynyard Stage 3 at FY '24, where does that sit at balance date?

That's where it's at balance date and still sitting about that.

Okay. Yes. And then just the final thread to this question. Just in terms of Molesworth, is there any potential that, that's on the cards for inclusion in the GIC long WALT portfolio?

At this stage, no. No, we're focused on kind of completing that project, delivering it, and it will go on balance sheet. Everything that we build and own, the intent is to build them to a quality that at some stage, if there's an opportunity or interest, then that's a consideration. But at this stage, the real focus is on completing that project.

Great. Just a couple of quick ones on Downtown. Just, I think you did -- it wasn't specifically mentioned in the slide pack, but those exclusive negotiations with a major occupier for up to sort of 40% of the office. Are you still in exclusive negotiations with that same party? And I guess the percentage may have come down a little bit just on the upsizing of downtown office. Is that the case?

Yes, that's exactly the case, Arie. And it's confidence with them and with others that have -- we will now commence kind of discussions that have given us the confidence to increase the office composition within the portfolio -- within the project, should I say.

Yes. And then just sort of looking ahead to the end of this year and the start of calendar year '26 when you've got the site, I guess, in your hands, can you just talk a little bit to what sort of tenant and partnership hurdles you would need to have reached before you sort of start to consider demolition works there?

We're still working that through with the Board. So sort of not yet in a position to say, Arie.

Okay. No, that's great. And then last question, just capitalized expenses, I guess, one more for sort of Rich. The management expenses that are sort of been capitalized to development, employee and admin, that seems to have sort of stabilized in the half to sort of around $9 million per year. Is that sort of the right sort of level that you sort of expect over the next couple of years? And can you just give a little bit of color on to where the largest draw on those capitalized expenses is?

Yes, so that has stabilized. That a reflection of obviously buying and preparing for PBSA residential in Downtown and Molesworth and other projects as well. So there has been more resource put to that. Looking forward, on a go-forward basis, that kind of amount that is capitalized in theory should reduce because it will be replaced by development management fees as that management business starts to generate fees from external parties.

Yes. And there wouldn't be any single pull out. I mean, as you say, there's quite a lot of works being progressed. So there's not a disproportionate amount going into any of the specific assets. It's pretty well spread across the board.

No, it's pretty well spread, and it's calculated depending on the resource requirements of what each project has. So yes, it can vary depending.

The next question is from Bianca Fledderus from UBS.

Firstly, just on your partnerships. So in line with your previous results, you say that you have encouraging conversations with partners for both Downtown Car Park and PBSA. Just wondering if there's any sort of time line you could provide as to when you may be able to provide the market with more details around that.

So look, around -- in terms of student accommodation, given sort of where those projects are at in design and consenting and where we're at on the conversations on funding to date, we would expect within the next 6 months or so, we'd be progressing those projects through to be able to commence construction. In terms of Downtown Car Park, look, those conversations will happen in parallel with design progressing and construction procurement progressing. So that's going to be a focus over the next couple of years.

Okay. All right. And then just looking at the FFO uplift for the HSBC Tower. So that was up $5 million or $4.8 million versus PCP. Could you just talk about what drove that? And then also HSBC FFO being above that of the PwC Tower at the moment?

Yes, Bianca, it's Scott here. Yes, we had a one-off surrender payment within that building.

Okay. And so going forward, that's supposed -- yes, we can expect that to sort of normalize again. EBC will be higher again?

Yes, that's right.

That's helpful. And then last -- sorry...

You go.

Lastly, just on the tax benefit in the first half. Could you provide any guidance around what you are expecting there for the full year?

Bianca, it will be some outcome for the year-end position, I suspect in that order.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question is from Rohan Koreman-Smit from Forsyth Barr.

Just going to the balance sheet, gearing is up a little bit, obviously, comes down with the settlement of the Bowen Street assets. But you've got $177 million in commitments in your accounts. Is that the full commitments for completing Molesworth and I guess, funding the projects that Downtown Car Park purchased, the resi projects or any other kind of projects that you've got a stake in? And can you just talk us through, I guess, your expectation for gearing going forward? That level of commitments could see that rise quite high. Are we going to see some more asset sales?

Rohan, in terms of the commitment, yes, that's correct. That's the Molesworth on balance sheet and also the commitment to acquire Downtown Car Park, which is at the back end of this year in terms of that finance expectation in terms of balance sheet.

Yes. In terms of the balance sheet, Rohan, we're definitely seeing more interest coming in from potential buyers. I think the interest rate cycle that we're seeing at the moment is definitely providing some form of catalyst. And so potential for us to look to recycle some capital out of 1 or 2 assets is something that we're interested in over the next 6 months.

And how far along that process are you in terms of -- do you have kind of shadow marketing going on? Or have you just had approaches from people on 1 or 2 assets?

Yes. We're engaged with some potential parties. I wouldn't want to give you a sense of how far advanced we are, but that's something that we do regularly. It's sort of normal course of business.

On the comments around softening contractor market and it's a good time to build. How has that kind of played into the economics of, I guess, Downtown, but also the replacement cost calculation? Do we still have economic rents materially above or reasonably above market rents at the moment?

Yes. Yes, we do. I mean it's anywhere between 10% and 20%, if I'm honest, Rohan. We are seeing some good pricing. Now we haven't necessarily tendered anything meaningful lately, but we're getting some pretty good insights through the 3 resi projects that we've got underway. And we've got -- first things first is we've got contractors that are willing to take on design build and offer fixed price. So that's encouraging. And that does derisk these projects for both parties. It's not about us laying off risk. It's about kind of our contractors getting control of design and then managing that risk for us, which is a good thing. And we are seeing some really competitive pricing. Now we expect that, that will continue for the next 12 months. We don't see a whole lot of projects that we think will get started. And so that construction market is going to be very hungry is our expectation over the next 12 months.

And do you have or are you far enough along on, say, student accommodation and some of the other resi projects and possibly even initial stages of Downtown to take advantage of that? Or do you think some things might kind of slip into a period where it's not as favorable for development?

Yes. Certainly, for PBSA, we think our timing is going to be really good. One of the key kind of constraints with our PBSA projects is getting our resource consents through. But the engagement with potential main contractors has been really encouraging and the pricing that we're seeing is good. Resi is a little bit further out, sort of potentially at the back end of this year. Again, I think we're going to be going to market at a good time and the opportunity there to try and secure design build, fixed price procurement approaches will be good. For Downtown, it's a slightly different market. Obviously, the scale of it is a lot bigger. And so we're more focused on kind of Tier 1 contractors and potentially contractors that may come from offshore. Again, though, I think in the broad scheme of things and for a project the size of Downtown, it's all about timing, be it sort of -- be it construction costs or the leasing cycle or the residential market for that project. So I think a '26 start on that is promising across all of those kind of frames that you might look through.

And then just finally, just a comment on trading. I guess, rent growth for occupancy. I believe 6 months ago, you said you were going to do the opposite in terms of you're going to drop rent growth a little and keep occupancy up that you've -- the opposite has kind of happened, but now you're going to swing back to your original plans. Can you just give us an idea of, I guess, what that means for some of these re-leasing spreads? Can you still achieve -- or do you still expect to close the under-renting gap? Or do you think that you're actually going to have to see net effectives come back a little bit in the market to lift occupancy?

Yes. I guess probably the biggest thing we've seen in the last 6 months is A grade start to be impacted by that kind of 2-tier market. 6 months ago, we would have said that prime was really strong and B and below was suffering. 6 months on, what we've seen is some new supply come into the market, and we've seen premium continue to perform well and A grade and below start to suffer. I don't think we're going to see rents go backwards at all, net effective rents go backwards. That shift that we said 6 months ago is happening. What you're seeing at the moment is the kind of lag effect and how long void periods exist for. So we think year-end occupancy, we think there's good opportunity to grow it from 96%, and that's a consequence of the deals that are being done at the moment. But as at 31 December, we were at 96%. And just -- again, it just reflects those void periods and how long they sit for.

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Pritchard for closing remarks.

Look, I just want to thank everyone for dialing in. We really appreciate the support and the interest in the business. We're excited about the next 6 months. We've got a lot on, and we're looking forward to getting some things across the line and providing with the market an update in August. So once again, thanks very much.

Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.