Primo Brands Corporation ($PRMB)
Earnings Call Transcript · June 3, 2026
Highlights from the call
In the Q2 2026 earnings call for Primo Brands Corporation (PRMB:US), management reported a revenue increase of 1.7% year-over-year, reaching $1.5 billion, exceeding the $1.4 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.45, beating expectations by $0.05. The company maintained its guidance for the full fiscal year, projecting revenue growth between 1% and 3%. Management emphasized improvements in service metrics and expressed confidence in future growth driven by premium product offerings and enhanced customer experience.
Main topics
- Service Improvement: Management highlighted a significant recovery in service metrics, with the 'on-time and full' delivery metric exceeding 90%. CEO Eric Foss stated, 'I'm really pleased with what the team has done, both on the pace and the speed of how that has recovered.'
- Revenue Growth Guidance: Primo Brands maintained its revenue growth guidance for the fiscal year at 1% to 3%, with CFO David Hass noting, 'We've since then revised our top line guide to 1 to 3.' This reflects confidence in ongoing recovery and growth initiatives.
- Premium Product Strategy: Management emphasized the growth potential in the premium segment, with CEO Foss indicating, 'I think there's a long runway ahead of us on double-digit growth.' This strategy aims to capitalize on consumer trends towards premiumization.
- Cost Management and Inflation Exposure: CFO Hass discussed the company's exposure to inflationary pressures, particularly in resin and diesel costs, stating, 'We are fortunate where about 41% of our fleet is propane oriented.' This hedging strategy is designed to mitigate risks associated with rising commodity prices.
- Integration Progress: Management reported significant progress in integrating operations post-merger, with CEO Foss asserting, 'We are one team Primo with one dream.' This cultural shift is aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and customer service.
Key metrics mentioned
- Revenue: $1.5B (vs $1.4B est, +1.7% YoY)
- EPS: $0.45 (beat by $0.05)
- On-Time Delivery: 90% (up from below 90% previously)
- Full Year Revenue Guidance: 1% to 3% (maintained guidance)
- Fleet Composition: 41% propane (to mitigate diesel cost exposure)
- Integration CapEx: 4% (normalizing after integration activities)
Primo Brands appears well-positioned for continued growth, bolstered by improvements in service metrics and a strategic focus on premium products. Investors should monitor the execution of integration efforts and the company's ability to manage cost pressures effectively. Future catalysts include enhanced customer experience initiatives and the potential for margin expansion as the premium segment grows.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsAll right. Welcome, everybody. Thank you. Last but not least, today, on day 2, I'm very happy to welcome Primo Brands to the conference. With us today from Primo, Eric Foss, Chief Executive Officer; and David Hass, Chief Financial Officer. So thanks, guys, for joining us. Good to be here.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsAll right. We're going to use the entirety of our time for Q&A. A lot to cover. But I guess, Eric, I'm going to start with you and to start very high level because there's a lot of moving parts to the Primo story at this point in time. But I guess if it's 1 headline that you want to kind of emphasize at the top, what would it be?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesSP999 I think it'd probably be that if you go back to the time of the merger, the deal thesis and really the overall investment thesis is still firmly intact. Okay. And there are several reasons, I'm sure we'll talk about many of them as we go through the next 30, 35 minutes. But the way I would characterize it is, this is a company that, first and foremost, is powerful, powerful in the fact that we've got leading industry brands, powerful in the fact that we have a go-to-market that has speed, reach and flexibility. In addition to being powerful, I think this is a company that's [ proven ], given we're the clear leader in water and the clear leader in healthy hydration and actually a major player. I think sometimes it goes a little bit unnoticed, but, a major player across liquid refreshment beverages, particularly when you think about velocity of the category and our brands within the category, we're a very important partner for our retail customers. And then I think the final P is the promising future that is in front of us as a company. And part of that promise is driven by the fact that we compete in a very attractive category, large, growing and profitable. And importantly, the consumer and how she thinks about health and wellness and how she is continuing to think about the future of municipal water are all pretty attractive components of the Primo story.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsGreat. Let's dive in, and we'll start with direct because that's been the focal point. I think the biggest trigger of debate with respect to the investment story. We've now cycled last year's disruption. And we've seen a pretty clear sequential progress over the last couple of quarters, really underpinned by sequential improvement in service. I guess, to what do you attribute the progress you've made so far? Where are we as we sit here today, in the early part of June? And I guess what remains to be done as we go forward?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesYes. I think a lot of the improvement was anchored in building the right culture and mindset, certainly, addressing some of the process and technology outages and also people. And so I think if you think about what created some of that, it was integration related. It was related to kind of the pace of what we did relative to some of the consolidation on the manufacturing side or warehouse side or even route optimization side. And so I think what we did was try to just simplify what really needed to happen to deliver a great customer experience. And the first thing is we had to get product produced schedule. We also had to get the warehouse out-of-stock situation solved and then get trucks loaded as ordered so that the sales teams could go deliver kind of [ account ] services scheduled and this important metric that we talked somewhat about in Q1 around on time in full. And so as we've worked through that process, the reality is, as you've seen that important leading metric of on-time and full move back north of 90%. I'm really pleased with what the team has done, both on the pace and the speed of how that has recovered. But at the same time, I would characterize it while pleased, we have more work to do. And the more work to do, to me, really centers around, in particular, the call center on making sure we've got the right capability, we've got the right tools, technology. There's certainly AI applications that we could be thinking about as part of that. And so that's kind of really still work ahead of us. We've also talked about we're in the process of piloting a warehouse management system that will improve both the out of stock and enable trucks to be loaded as ordered. So really pleased with the progress, but continuing down the success car.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. When you dig into the -- that above 90% on-time in full metric, are there -- is it spread like peanut butter? Or are there still hot spots where you're not quite back to where you need to be?
David Hass
ExecutivesWell, there's some hot spots geographically -- but I think for the most part, there's not hotspots on the production side. If there's hotspots, it's still within that warehouse situation or within the service model. And again, we've talked about it. We've continued to invest resources, feet on the street selling resources. The way I think you'll see the evolution of that play out, Steve, is while we were over resourced during the off-peak time frame, we're kind of growing into our body now in terms of the staffing of those routes as we move through summer. And as we come through kind of the peak summer selling season, we'll rightsize that infrastructure. So you'll begin to see that tail off as we get into the second half of the year in terms of the investments.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. Maybe, David, just around the cost -- or the, I guess, the cost/margin trajectory associated with this recovery. How do we think about as the service improves, as you've been running -- I mean, you've been doing a lot of things throughout densities, a bunch of stuff going on; what's the expected margin trajectory here? I think most of your the cost dynamics are somewhat controlled for this year. I'll come back to that maybe a bit later. But just in terms of -- on the direct business itself, as revenue improves, assuming it does, what's the margin implications associated?
David Hass
ExecutivesYes, this is a business that's always made its peak margins in Q3, first of all, As we move into Q2, that would be the second sort of beneficial quarter. And then you have the natural Q4, Q1 or Q1, Q4, depending on the sequence of sort of the [ shoulder ] seasons. So as Eric mentioned, coming into Q1 and into the new year with the progress made where Q4 of last year sequentially improved from the down 5 in Q3. We posted about a down [ 4.1% ] in Q4. We started seeing earlier signs of [ OTIF ] journey and saying, "Hey, this route investment is paying dividends," plus the cultural change and the leadership change that Eric brought in sort of helping everyone understand, the customer has to feel that satisfaction and when they order that it shows up in full and on time, and that's really what started. So again, sequentially, Q2 will look better than 1, 3 better than 2. And as long as we continue to see that [ OTIF ] journey lead to lower call volume, lead to higher sentiment and satisfaction from the consumer side. we're not going to overly prescriptive manage the margin side if it continues to unlock top line growth. That's really what we've seen occur. Again, it's a natural sequential improvement period for us. We are growing into that route count and are growing into that volume as seasonal lift comes in both the exchange and home delivery side. So we're pretty pleased with that progress so far.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. Where are we on the the path to net additions, the top of the funnel exceeding the bottom of the funnel? We're round about the time when we were -- I think you were targeting to get back on the positive side. Have we hit that market? Are we close? What's the trajectory there?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesYes. I think if you think about some of the most important metrics, while north of 90% is good and some of that journey is still ahead of us. the customer nets [ and ] ultimately getting at that quick portion of the nets because the top of the funnel has been been fine is really still ahead of us. And so as we get through the next several months, I think you'll begin to see that get back to a more normalized level. So I think still to come, work in progress.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsWhen you dig into the quit, what is -- is it service? Is it -- what are -- what's the rank order of rationale? And how do you -- therefore, how do you address it?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesYes. I think one of the bodies of work that's still ahead of us is what I would call just almost reconceptualizing the entire customer journey. And so if you think about it from exploration to sign up, a step 1; service and delivery; step 2; making sure you've got an accurate and timely bill, step 3; and then step 4, the issue resolution. I think it's in those last 3 buckets, right, of first and foremost, it's the delivery and the service dimension. But as we've brought systems together, we have had some hiccups on the billing side as well. And then while most consumers don't expect you to be perfect, we've spent a lot of time on that last bucket of issue resolution. As we dug into the process, we found out there was more coordination, more communication and more process and technology needed. When somebody made a call to the call center, the call center operator would solve it in his or her mind but wasn't connecting the dots back to the [ depot and ] the route. And so we've also stood up this respond and recover sell by sundown process. It has helped solve those issues on a 24-hour basis. All of that, I think, is helping us make progress as those leading metrics.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. So when I think about -- think about some of the -- so warehouse management, harmonization of data, the call center investments; does that kind of -- thinking about that over the course of the next -- looking at it over the next 12, 24-plus months and juxtaposing against economic forecast at the time of transaction, do those those -- some of those things seem like added investments added costs. Can they be funded within the original financial forecasts funded by synergies or whatnot? Or are they -- or should investors start to think about maybe some incremental costs to come?
David Hass
ExecutivesYes. I think relative to reinvestment, I think some of those are going to be in to fall off. I mentioned earlier the feet on the street and the routes. Certainly, the win-back initiative reinvestment monies, those will begin to build a tail here as we get into the second half of the year. I think the ongoing reinvestment is still ahead of us that will continue or in the area of the call center capability and technology. Those three, I think, are with us for a while until we can get get it set up for a great customer experience day in and day out. I'd say those three are still ahead of us.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. Have you -- as you've settled into the I mean you were familiar with the business before you became CEO from a Board perspective. As you've gotten closer to the day to day, have you seen incremental opportunities value? Let's fast forward and let's say the businesses -- we've gotten through this, the business is now humming along, service levels are strong. Are there incremental upside opportunities that maybe you didn't fully appreciate a year ago?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesYes, I think there are. I think I've talked about kind of the three phases of our evolution of how we're approaching this. First phase is stabilization. I think we're working our way through that phase efficiently and at pace. The second phase is optimization. And then the third phase is more strategized. And so I think as you look at this business, what are we really great at? Again, we spend the majority of our time talking about the customer direct business, but we got half of our business sitting over in [ detail. So as you think about that and you think about the growth vectors available to us as an enterprise, I would wind them up as follows. I think number one, getting that great customer experience on the customer direct side unlocks growth potential. Two, on the retail side, we have an opportunity to really be much better in terms of in-store presence, more in line with our fair share and what we rightfully deserve. And this is a business that's grown up being really good at the cheap [ case pack ] water. Most of the profit pool sits over an immediate consumption. And so how we take advantage of that through a [ conquer cold ] initiative and cold drink, whether it's [ coolers or covault ] is another growth vector for us. And so I think as you think about this business, there's plenty of growth vectors here in terms of execution, selling service. And I didn't mention what's probably one of the hottest things going right now within the category, and that's our premium portfolio, which is also -- has a long runway ahead.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsYes. So let's dive into some of those things. as you say, retail, retail has had some externality events. We've had some weather. We've had tornado hit one of your facilities. But overall, the retail -- the category has been strong, the category is premiumizing. Your business has been delivering well. I guess, how do you -- you talked about some of the unlocks in terms of single [ serve ]. I guess, do you have the capabilities to get at all of those opportunities that -- but whether it's in-store execution or it's actual manufacturing capabilities for single-serve, how much of that is kind of low-hanging fruit that's relatively easy to go after versus things you're going to have to build capabilities to realize?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesYes. There's no doubt there's a capability investment, Steve. But I think most of it is within our reach. And so on the retail side of the business, I mean, what makes us -- what we are today is the strength of the product portfolio that we bring to market each and every day. And so as you think about that, we're positioned very well to meet the consumer where she wants, how she wants, when she wants. And it starts with we can compete at the value end of that spectrum with a product like [ Pure Life ]. We obviously can compete in the both value-oriented consumer and brand affinity consumer with our leading-edge -- leading market share regional [ spring waters ] and then it moves into premium. And then you complement that, which I think is a muscle, we're going to get better at building, which is the in-store execution part, right, which is how do we get more of our fair share of the feature activity? How do we get more display inventory to support that feature activity? How do we get more space on the gondola? How do we get more points of distribution and availability throughout the store? That's all opportunities for us. And again, it will come with some investment in people and capability.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. On the premium on [ Saratoga Mountain ] Valley, I guess maybe frame the size of the prize as you see it, where we are with capacity to be able to deliver on that? And I guess, yes, just how big can [ premium ] become and what lies in your way, essentially?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesYes. I think, one, it's great to see the 40-plus percent continued growth we're getting off of those 2 trademarks. So I think there's a long runway ahead of us on double-digit growth. I would characterize it in terms of framing as we're in kind of the early to mid innings still of a baseball game. And so where do we need to go or how do we go forward? I think it's important to know that we're not capacity constrained. And yet because we're still in the early and mid innings, we still have tremendous points of distribution opportunity. And then we really haven't unlocked that [ ex ] a channel or a customer to on the whole getting its rightful visual inventory levels and gondola space and properly positioned with more visual unity than it has today. So again, there is a long runway of continued growth in this. And obviously, it's a very attractive portion of the category for us to compete in.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsYes. Dave, maybe help a little bit in terms of the profitability implications, the mix implications of growing that premium segment. And as it scales, does it achieve even greater profitability? Or does that -- do those -- does that incremental growth require more brand investment? Is there both a margin and revenue story here? Or is it more about revenue profit dollar growth and positive mix on the portfolio?
David Hass
ExecutivesYes. So I think we're in a very fortunate position where both of these brands are incredibly attractive and popular. But they come at their go-to-market a little bit differently. And you've heard Eric talk about [ RGM ] capabilities, and that's really an unlock that is still a capability build to come for us as a business. But with that, it allows those prices and go-to-market activities to be set up incredibly profitable for those respective brands. Each of those brands come to market a little bit differently. [ Mountain Valley ] had tended to come to market a little bit more balanced between a retail offering and a go-to-market or direct delivery direct-to-consumer setup. And [ Saratoga ] has typically been more of a retail away-from-home established brand that's now having some increased success off route. So anytime you can have a better balance with the off-route part or direct-to-consumer part, you start to unlock the margins in a very nice way. You just had asked a question about sort of capacity expansion and the like as well. So the Board and management was at the [ Hawkins ] facility, the same facility that was hit by the tornado. We actually had a nice cultural event there with the associate groups celebrating what I'll call kind of the grand reopening as well as the new commissioning of the line that had been introduced to that facility that allowed retail unlock of sort of our [ glass ] capability. So that's been very nice. The Mountain Valley expansion in greenfield is starting to produce test product today as we speak. And so that's also an unlock. So both the brand portfolio opportunity, where it gets distributed, a balance between retail and direct to consumer, the [ RGM ] capabilities and then these capital investments all start to bring this to a nicely accretive position for us as a company.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsYes. Maybe talk a little bit about the -- to what degree -- our packages and brands, I would argue [ Saratoga and Mountain Valley], to me, I think retail, right? But to what extent our kind of retail packages, retail brands being leveraged in the direct business, I guess, we get the stop there?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesYes. I think if you think about our direct business and the -- once we get to the the growth flywheel we desire, right, you would have kind of this dimension of really solid customer retention, adding, given the opportunity at the top of the funnel, net new business that's accretive to the algorithm, ensuring you've got the right RGM and pricing strategy up against that business. And then you would take that existing in-home 5-gallon consumer and start to attach case pack to them or if they're having a dinner party this weekend and don't want a [ PET ] bottle of [ coal and spring ] in the middle of the table or to their guests would have a glass bottle of [ Saratoga Springs or Mountain Valley ]. And so that attachment opportunity is one that, to a large extent, to use a basketball analogy, we've been trying to figure out who to guard on the customer direct business. and playing a little more defense and on our heels than we'd like. As we get on our toes and start playing offense, particularly as we get into the latter part of this year and next year, you'll see us start to think a lot more about how you bring some of that business back into the customer direct selling strategy.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsWhat about the flip side? I mean, are there -- to what extent are -- does the logistics and some of the warehouse management, some of the capabilities you're trying to build on the direct side become leverageable in the retail business, especially as you're almost building more of a [ DSD ] type presence in retail trying to control the perimeter? And so are there are there operational sort of leverage points in the opposite direction?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesThere are some. I think actually, our warehouse management system on the retail side is -- I don't know if light years is right, but certainly well ahead. But I think your question is a relevant one. I think one of the things as we think about the growth opportunity on the retail side of the business, and I'll I'll use immediate consumption, but I could apply the same principle to in-store execution. As we think through that opportunity to get more [ colvalt ] space or to get more coolers into the market, one of the things we're beginning to test in Texas is how we might stand up a more DSD-like delivery model. You could do that off our customer direct trucks today or you could begin to think about it. And to be honest with you, where I'm agnostic is on the delivery aspect. Where I'm passionately engaged on the unlock is how we identify selling eyes and merchandising arms to activate and keep that cooler or [ cold vault ] full and presented the right way to the consumer. So I think on that side, there's an ability to take some of that model that we use on the direct side into the retail business more so than we have it today.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. overall, the category is premiumizing. We see that in your portfolio, we see that in the category. But is there any kind of degree of value consciousness or competitive activity that is picking up in the current consumer environment? And to what extent is that a planning assumption that you're becoming more elevated as you think about the go forward, given the state of the U.S. consumer?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesYes. I mean I would -- first of all, I'm a big believer that you have to play your game and control what you can control. But -- and I would characterize the pricing environment is very rational. I think what's -- the beauty of our portfolio in addition to the brand breadth we speak to is the value spectrum in which we can engage the consumer. So if you really think about it, almost the [ minute ] steps away from tap water, the best value per ounce for her is going to be our [ refill ] business. As she steps up the chain, she could go to our exchange business. As she steps further up the chain, you could go into our retail package business or ultimately to the home delivery business. And then she could do it across brands in that from our existing brands up through the regional [ spring ] waters and premium brands. So I think it's really important for investors to understand how broad a value spectrum we have and can deliver against. And so there's no doubt, with some of the inflationary discussion on commodities that we'll see where all that lands. But I like our position in terms of the value impression to the consumer.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. I want to talk about the cost side of that in a second. But in terms of for -- either one of you or both of you want to tag team, just the capabilities, as you're thinking about offsetting the cost inflation to come and what we're talking about is being able to [ flex ] revenue growth management in a way that allows to deliver the consumer what it needs in a way that also protects your profitability; how well developed are those capabilities? And are you ready for this moment as you go into the back half and think about [ '27 ] potentials?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesYes. I mean the way I think about it, Steve, is pricing is probably one of the most complex levers on the P&L. And the reason why it's complex is you need somebody that understands how the consumer defines value, you need somebody that understands how the customer is going to manage through on their trade margin and execution of that. and you need somebody that understands the in-depth economics of the company P&L. And so you have a small number of people who really understand that. And so to be great at pricing, you need to be very principle-based. You're definitely going to have to invest in capability and tools and technology and look at AI applications, so on and so forth. What's most important to me, though, is -- and I've been through this journey before at another company, whereby as we were being stood up through an IPO as a bottling entity and losing the concentrate P&L, pricing became the most important lever for us. And so at the time, we talked about how we were making pricing decisions. And as I came back from Europe, one of the answers I consistently got was we wait and see what competition does and then we follow them. And my point was, I sure hope they know what they're doing because if not, we're going to be in big trouble. And we changed that day from that mindset of waiting to see what competition does to making sure all of our pricing starts and ends with the consumer. And so as we think about pricing and [ RGM ] at Primo, we're going to make sure all of our pricing decisions starting in with the consumer. What do you have to do? You have to figure out how she defines great good and [ no ] value across usage occasions, price points, pack types. And so as we do that, one of the early bifurcations you'll find in this category is you have this future consumption business where the consumer's definition of value is very much price. You have this immediate consumption business where the consumer's definition of value is very much convenience. So how you choose to play across your portfolio, what rate actions, what trade spend initiatives or what mix management opportunities you have is a pretty complex exercise. But we're very committed to it. Most importantly, we're committed to profitable growth, balancing it across volume and price. And I think you'll see us begin to talk a lot more about this in terms of how we take this forward. And again, I didn't talk about it earlier when I talked about growth vectors, but this is another big one they [ won ].
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. So on the cost side, let's talk about what we're trying to offset. And I think let's start with '26, your degree of exposure relative to your degree of protection. And then how to at least help investors at least conceptualize the risks that may be accruing into '27? And how changes in spot prices may move that around? Because I think it's a little misunderstood as to how much flows through, how quickly within the Primo Brands P&L.
David Hass
ExecutivesYes. So I think importantly, we, like almost everybody attending this conference is exposed in some regard. So if it's direct delivery, we're typically expose more on the input cost of the vehicles themselves. And so our -- we are fortunate where about 41% of our fleet is [ propane ] oriented. That market has been largely not affected by events in the Middle East. And then the balance of that is diesel, of which we have had a pretty comprehensive and robust hedging strategy. That hedging strategy always looks out on an event horizon and tries to take down sort of hedges using very publicly available sort of spot prices and diesel in that regard. So we're pretty well balanced this year. We have hedges in place for next year, not to the degree we would have, obviously, of the current calendar year, but we continue to apply and look at that and sort of take down additional hedges as needed. On the retail side, we're more exposed in that case to resin, in which we both come to market through virgin resin and recycled PET. And we'll do that on a forward kind of spot buy price with our vendor partners. In that case, you don't really have a natural market you can hedge, so you're doing that all through relational-type discussions. Again, similar setup here where in the current calendar year and into a portion of next year, we have some positions in place or some contracts in place. And what we can do thereafter is look at the totality of exposure. First, assess how we, as a growing entity, can offset that through just better productivity of the system to kind of go back to that analogy of direct delivery and Q1 route count versus Q2 route count and how that incremental volume helps. And then secondly, looking at it from the lens of, all right, what's that average basket of exposure and to protect margins or to potentially have incremental margins, how would we price product accordingly? And that's that RGM lens that Eric talked about and how we would go through that entire assessment. And that wouldn't just be in the retail product, it would come all the way down to what's the appropriate refill price per gallon for instance, to do that. So the good news is that while there are headwinds, we have, I think, a process that works for us. It's a process that's not just unique to us, it's structural across the industry that's exposed to these commodities. And I think we have a couple of different vectors to attack against that.
Eric Foss
ExecutivesI think the thing I would build on David's comments would be, as you think about this, I think, first and foremost, the industry has certainly seen this before. I've seen it before. David seen it before. I think second, it's really important and it's tough, given the day-to-day reading of the headlines, the level of volatility, uncertainty to keep coming back to it's temporary. And the fact that the industry is likely to be affected in a similar way, whether you're a branded player or a private label player, everybody's got there, as David talked about, hedging and forward buying strategies that are pretty similar. And then the number of levers we have, productivity and price been two of them, but fuel surcharges as well as delivery fee changes are all part of the toolkit if we get to that moment in time.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsYes. The nature of your -- I guess, to some degree, your hedges, but also I guess, probably more likely your contractual relationships with key suppliers. To some extent, if commodities -- if the prices go high -- as they go higher, stay higher, what the hedges are doing essentially giving you time, right, to catch up, in a scenario where things remain more elevated for longer, you're therefore layering on more protection and more contractual protection, but then we see a reversal; are you -- to what extent are you locked in to those higher prices versus having some flexibility to renegotiate or participate in some of that downside? Does that make sense?
David Hass
ExecutivesIt does. Yes. I think notably in diesel, while we're largely protected in current year, if there was somehow a Q3 or a Q4 event, there is enough exposure in the spot market where we could have some benefit. Obviously, that could go against you in some degree if things go higher from here. But I think the best thing for an organization like ours, based on the finance team, supply chain and procurement teams; is just having a good level of understanding of what we're facing. Again, within the last week, we've seen, I think, a spot market change on WTI of over $10. So that's not necessarily stable or easy to predict around. As long as we can get a general quantum of what we're up against, the organization can move into action, again, whether it's productivity initiatives or through that pricing and the levers available within that. But yes, if things were to relax, there is some benefit, I think, on the supplier side, notably in resin, there would also be ways to continue to say, hey, this is a different market than what we talked about. Oh, by the way, we unlikely have taken delivery of the product. So let's talk about how we're going to handle that.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsYes. And I would think that with -- just given your scale and size that if there was 1 buyer who's going to have that ability to probably be -- yes. Okay. Let me just talk a little bit about sort of your cash outlook both for this year and as you bridge to the future. I guess what drives the next step up in free cash flow for you? And how would you be prioritizing uses of that cash once it comes?
David Hass
ExecutivesSure. So this will be the last year of integration-related activities. We completed round 6 in February [ around 7 ] in March. We're also going to extinguish sort of what we'll call our integration CapEx, which has been part of the add-back cycle within that. We don't anticipate another weather event. So unfortunately, we faced close to $45-plus million related to that tornado repair. So all those things start to sunset. And so that allows the capital -- the CapEx investment to revert back to more of that normalized 4%. The nice thing within that is our original guide for the year was 0% to 1%. We delivered a [ 1.7% ] Q1. We've since then revised our top line guide to 1 to 3. And then none of those scenarios did it anticipate a 4.5% or 5% capital to do that. It was a balanced achievement through diverse water portfolio growth across regional [ spring ] water purified and premium, across service growth and then notably in direct delivery a rapid or a more rapid improvement in the trajectory of that recovery arc. So we're pretty excited that, that doesn't require extraneous capital to sort of generate that change in guide that we've given. Our first priority, again, would be to find projects where those capital investments within the existing sort of amount could generate or stimulate a higher top line. Some examples of that continue to be investments we've made in the premium business, investments we've made in what is adding regional spring water exchange product to our existing footprint in the [ exchange ] business next to our [ purified ] product. So that's a nice incremental lift. And then most importantly, just looking across the portfolio where to play, how to win and where can some of that capital investment growth angle be used to sort of elevate the business? Most importantly, our priority thereafter is to delever this business. So we think we can, again, start to get a little closer to that 3x and in a year from now, sort of breach through that 3x net leverage ratio. And that's a really strong position for us to sort of unlock valuation, we believe. From there. Again, communication of a dividend policy annually. And again, we don't really believe we'll be in the share repurchase business unless obviously, there is the dislocation we faced in the last year. So that -- all those are things where both the base cash profile, the quality of the cash profile, the diminishment of the add-backs, all those things start to go in and sequentially improve each quarter this year.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. We have a couple of minutes left. I almost -- right from the outset, I've been talking -- we've been talking about Primo as sort of one entity. In the grand scheme of things, we're only 18 months removed from what was a very large transformational integration. Inside the company, is it one Primo? Or is there still -- to what extent are we still integrating?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesYes. I think we've done a lot of work. It's a good question. There's three things you have to get right. Anytime you bring companies together, successful integration, synergy capture and the culture. And the culture is really the centerpiece of your question. We are one team Primo. And we have talked a lot as an executive leadership team, and we've talked a lot about to the senior leadership team. We had to get together with the senior leadership team about a month ago. And my message to them was I wanted them to change a couple of things. I wanted them to change their place. This is no longer [ Nestle Water ]. It's no longer [ Blue Triton ] brand. It's no longer Primo legacy. This is one team Primo with one dream. Second, I wanted them to change their pace. We need to be faster and we need to be more agile in a fast-moving consumer goods category like this. And the third is I wanted them to change their perspective. And what I meant by that is I want them to lay down their functional hat or their line of business hat, and I want them to put on the enterprise hat. And I want them to make sure that while technically and functionally, they're very capable, they also view the business through more of a general manager's mindset. And so I think the team has responded really well to that. We'll continue to walk down a path of assessing capability who can and can't as well as culturally, who will and won't and make the necessary changes to make sure we're running the best team on the field. But I think we're in a very good spot relative to one Primo team.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. Great. And then our final minutes, I mean, I guess, we've talked -- there's a lot of balls in the air that we're progressing through. You mentioned early innings a couple of times. So when we get to the end of the game, I guess, what do you want investors to understand about end-state Primo and the opportunities that lie ahead?
Eric Foss
ExecutivesI would say end-state Primo, first and foremost, we want to be known as a great customer service entity. So you'd want to be able to drive great consumer satisfaction and great customer loyalty and a company that really helps our retail partners build their business. I think, second, we want to be known as a growth company, so we want to unlock the growth full potential of this business through the growth flywheel. And that will be measured in our ability to grow and outgrow the category ultimately and grow share. I think third, we want to be known culturally as a company that's a great place to work, where our associates can come and build a career and we're known as both a performance and a recognition culture. And then I think really important for us is we're trying to get this company into what I would call the virtuous cycle of really solid top line growth that is complemented with some margin expansion, which drives good earnings growth and free cash flow that you can reinvest in the business. And ultimately, if we do that, it will be a great investment for our shareholders. And the thing that I'm really encouraged by is if you take this moment in time, I think the fundamentals are strengthening. I think the reality is, is that the momentum is building. And I think the path forward allows us a pretty nice path to create value going forward.
Stephen Robert Powers
AnalystsOkay. We're out of time. So we'll end it there. Good place to end it. Thank you both. Appreciate your time. Thank you all for joining, and enjoy the rest of the conference.
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