Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 11, 2021

NASDAQ US Financials Insurance conference_presentation 47 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#1

And we're live again. If you're just joining us, for this moment, this is the Bank of America U.S. Financial Services Conference. I should say, the Bank of America U.S. Insurance Conference. There will be other financial services conferences. We're doing this from New York in the Bank of America Tower. Right now is the track for Principal Financial and we hope that you're joining us. If you want to ask a question, you should be logged into the Veracast app. You'll see there's a dialogue box for Q&A. You can type that in. It will come to me. I won't be able to get a video feed to you, but I will ask Dan the question. And so you should be -- feel free to use it. And with that said, we're very proud to have Dan Houston, the CEO of Principal Financial here. If I'm right, you've been at for 35 years and...

Daniel Houston

executive
#2

37, yes.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#3

37. And CEO for 5 years. I mean, everyone knows, Dan. I don't have to give an introduction, but Dan is going to say a few remarks in the beginning. We'll go through my questions, but I hope that you'll help us by asking some questions, too. And so I'm going to give the mic to Dan, and then we'll move on from there. Thank you very much for coming, Dan.

Daniel Houston

executive
#4

Thanks, Josh, and thanks to our friends at Bank of America for putting on this virtual investor conference. I'll make my comments brief. And the reason I make 5 minutes worth of comments is to perhaps stimulate some questions from the investors. So when I think about COVID, our plan of attack was, frankly, never to close our corporate center here. That's where I'm speaking from, and it's been where I've been from day 1. We have not exited the buildings. We have 500 or 600 folks here every day conducting business. Obviously, we're in the midst of a large acquisition, with the acquisition of Wells Fargo's retirement business and trust business, and we're integrating that well. We've made some significant concessions to our customers in 2020 to make sure that they understood how much we care about their business, and so premium concessions and hardship withdrawal concessions. And then so with that as a backdrop, I think about what are the growth drivers for Principal going forward in a post-COVID environment? The one thing we know for sure is the SMB market has held up remarkably well. Hospitality got beat up, restaurants, some of those really small employers really had a tough go of it. But the steps that the federal government took and the Fed, along with the PPP program, has really provided an incredible backstop for small- to medium-sized business. So we see recurring deposits recovering. We see matches recovering, et cetera. So feel good about that. The second area I would cite is around the U.S. retirement growth. Again, recurring deposits are strong. Interest in qualified retirement plans and establishing them for the first time still is positive. So not only takeover business, but new business of startups still very much intact. And the idea of providing your employees with financial security is top of mind in addition to health insurance for employers of all size. Our integrated model still works well, integrating asset management. Our total retirement solutions with defined benefit, defined contribution, deferred comp and ESOPs really holds well. 60%, again, of all of our business falls into this category. It's in demand. People are looking for those comprehensive solutions as opposed to trying to net those together. And then I'd be remiss if I didn't cite the emerging market opportunities with -- for Principal, Latin America, Asia, so big markets in Chile, Mexico, Brazil and then our joint venture with China Construction Bank in China, operations in Hong Kong and our good partner in Southeast Asia is CIMB Group, of which now we own 60%. They have 40%, and we're really finding great ways to partner with our asset management franchise to really make things work well in Southeast Asia. I should have mentioned our partner, Banco do Brasil, in Latin America. These emerging markets have been challenged in the last few years. If you just looked at 2020 alone, we had $56 million of headwinds relative to just currency. But again, as the dollar loses strength, as these currencies strengthen, we should see a nice rebound. And then the group benefits business still very much intact. The group life, dental, disability, top 4 player. Life insurance, Individual Life insurance sales, up about 7% for us this past year. And then our business owner executive solutions and deferred comp. And then last comment is great capital position, great liquidity position, still have a dividend payout ratio in excess of 40% is what we told investors was our target. We continue to maintain that. We started purchasing shares again in the fourth quarter, and we'll give more of an update on these important capital matters at our outlook call, Josh, on February 25. So those are really my prepared comments. And hopefully, that creates some interest and some additional questions for investors.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#5

So Dan, you referenced the integrated solution. I'm not going to say that there's only one way. When I think about history of companies like Ameriprise or Lincoln, that competed with you in multiple lines over time. They've just aggregated their value proposition to grow their focus on certain lines of business. When I think about the enterprise value of bring all these things together in Principal, why does it work? Why may have it not worked for some others? And why are the lines you're in a wholesome sort of basket that is going to drive growth over the long term?

Daniel Houston

executive
#6

Yes. It's a great question, Josh. And I start with what our targeted market is. It's small- to medium-sized employers, large employers, their -- principles of those companies and, obviously, their employees. And we've oriented our product set to go after these very specific markets. There are some products that I consider to be natural bundles. Natural would be DB, DC, ESOP and deferred comp. They fit together, they knit together really well. And they're also generally sold by the same adviser. One of the reasons we divested ourselves of our health insurance business back to 2010 was because it wasn't necessarily a natural fit. We had lost the critical mass that we needed, didn't have the scale. And believe it or not, even then, only 5% of our health insurance customers had dental, disability and life. And so even the decision around group benefits and health insurance was bifurcated into 2 different bundles. So that's the approach that we've taken. We have tried to leverage the enterprise's ability to create great product and then feed our targeted market segments. I can't speak for the other companies that you mentioned. I don't know if they are effectively product manufacturers, trying to take a product to market or they're trying to target a specific target market and provide comprehensive solutions to them. One of the reasons, Josh, that we made a very difficult decision to instantly integrate the IRT business from Wells Fargo was we didn't want to have 2 dual systems, where it created confusion in call centers or product offering or branding or technology. And yes, we spent the last 18 months putting in 1 million hours of coding to make this transition. And 2 of the 5 waves have now rolled over. But again, the focus was on satisfying the customer, not trying to satisfy for a product sale. Hopefully, that helps.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#7

So let's talk about the contents of IRT. I mean, I was looking at the retirement services of our group retirement. And I think you're now maybe the fifth or maybe the fourth biggest player in the market, but it still feels fairly fragmented to me. I counted there were about -- out of the top 500, 10 competitors were about half your size. But still, I don't know if it's critical mass. But definitely, they have a share in the market overall. And it does seem like from there, there's a lot of players in that marketplace, and it's still quite fragmented. I'm actually surprised, given the economies of scale associated with that business that it's as fragmented as it is. Some people have made this argument, which is popular that in the long term, there's only 2 to 4 competitors in every market, as sort of a general rule. Is this is a market on the verge of mass consolidation? And how -- you can go take that anywhere you want, but how should we think about it?

Daniel Houston

executive
#8

It's an industry that is slowly migrating into a handful of what I'd consider to be mega players in this marketplace. I mean, we'll be roughly 10 million planned participants. And you mentioned there's a lot that are kind of 0.5 million to 1 million. I lived through the consolidation of the health insurance industry. I saw what the likes of the Blue Cross and Blue Shield organizations did. You can put certainly UnitedHealthcare into that mix, and we can talk about Aetna and Cigna and Kaiser. But I do think that over a longer period of time, these industries will have a tendency to coalesce into some really mega players and Principal's going to be and is one of those players today. To the extent that you're committed to this business, the investment that you make around IT, IT security, participant website, employer, websites and support, it's a big deal. And so critical mass matters when you're trying to spread the cost out of these significant multi-million, tens of millions dollar investments to your technology infrastructure. So I think it will happen. But again, I come back to -- with the focus on the customer, I think the TRS element, which again, as I said, 60%, I think that's going to be a great differentiator. We already, for example, can provide services for emergency savings or HSAs. They're not as natural as some of these others. The distribution partners tend not to promote those as often. But we'll see what a post-COVID environment with more remote workers looks like and what their expectations will be from their services provider such as provider retirement plans and group benefits. But we are certainly poised in a positive manner to take advantage of that.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#9

And with the technology initiatives that you're doing with IRT transaction. Look, I don't want to imply that there's more M&A to come, there might be. But is it easy to integrate a bolt-on, if you want to acquire a smaller book of business, not of the nature of the IRT transaction, but one of your smaller competitors. Can you do the technology that's easy to do going forward [indiscernible] transaction?

Daniel Houston

executive
#10

We absolutely can. Yes, Josh. So one of the things that we -- that we said to ourselves, and so I'll make up a number, 800,000 to 1 million hours to onboard this acquisition. Maybe you could have done it for half the hours, 500,000 to 600,000 maybe or 400,000 to 500,000 hours. But what we've done is created the infrastructure to receive the next acquisition without having to do a lot of reprogramming. And so as it turns out a number measured in dozens of the employees that will be transferring over to principal from Wells Fargo had already had a really good playbook. Wells had been an acquirer and a consolidator of platforms. And so we took a lot of their playbook, their insights, their knowledge and codified that to be a more robust engine, to receive the next acquisition. So directly answering your question, it would be a fraction of the effort to onboard the next big one or even medium-sized one than what has taken place here as it relates to the IRT transition.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#11

I want to remind -- there's currently 70 people listening that you can ask a question, just type the -- your question to the Veracast window and send it over to me. You don't have to be shy, but you can be if you want. So a little bit deeper. I cover Voya. I cover Prudential, I cover a few others. And just once, for no good reason, I was looking at the fund flows over the last 4, 5 years, I was mapping them over and they're very similar. I didn't think that they would have to be, maybe there's a reason there, but fund flow percentages generally have been in line. But with those companies, I mentioned, you could be in different areas, 401(k) versus 403(b) versus 457. Can you talk about some [ disruptive ] behaviors in those subgroups a little bit. And how, I guess, different books of business will behave differently. Are older books of business attractive for people? Are their withdrawals straight -- stage? I guess, if you want to skew younger, were there still growth? How should we think about sort of the different opportunities in different sort of classes of business within that retirement business?

Daniel Houston

executive
#12

Excellent. So one of what we know to be an obvious differentiator between 401(k) and 403(b) and to some extent, even 457, is a higher utilization of the general account guaranteed returns in spite of even low rates. Those generally can produce -- although it uses up more capital, there is more revenue generated from those sorts of investment options. I do think that if you think about the overall differentiators, it gets down into things like TRS, it gets to the participant website. It's how you go to market. We enjoy literally relationships with tens of thousands of advisers that sell our products. We like that. It's highly diversified. Technology is a huge differentiator. One of what I think will be a big outcome with our relationship with a third-party, that is allowing us to onboard a new, small plan without any human interaction. So it is a 100% automated onboarding of a small plan. That's a very powerful tool for small employers that know what they want. And again, we'll work with advisers and using that to try it again, take out cost where customization is not necessary. But TRS is probably among the competitors you mentioned, is a huge differentiator. And they're hard to do. I mean there's a lot of complexity in deferred compensation. There's a lot of expertise that you need around ESOP and working with valuation firms and having the proper communications because the way you communicate with corporate employee, a W2 worker as opposed to a W2 worker working for a privately owned, smally-held organization in which the appreciation of the underlying stock is a huge contributor to their retirement program. Those are 2 very, very extreme examples of how you'd communicate differently. And then remember that once you get a plan greater than a couple of hundred employees. There is no way that the highly compensated individuals can save enough for retirement. Matter of fact, I'm sure many of the people on this call find themselves in that same position. So a deferred compensation program, people don't want different investment options. They don't want a different website. They don't want the complexity that trying to take 2 unaffiliated firms together to produce that and the confusion that it can create. So that bringing together a deferred comp funded either with mutual funds or unfunded or using life insurance because of its tax efficiencies, those are all other ways, Josh, as you say, getting down into the details. Those are ways to truly differentiate our offering from the competition. Of course, that's even before we get to investment options. We've known that it's been open architecture for a long time, whether it's a brokerage option, a target date, proprietary, nonproprietary. The best way to go to the market there is having choice. The good news is we've got really strong asset management at Principal Global Investors, good target date funds. And so it's allowed us to disproportionately capture those assets not because how we go to market, but rather the investment standing on their own for having strong long-term competitive performance.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#13

Let's move over, I guess, we'll do a nice bridge to investment management, I guess. And, by bridge, by saying, I haven't really seen any company's throughput a lot of their retirement funds into the investment management business. It's always maybe been a dream or maybe it's my dream. Man, I'd say, "Oh, you can put these 2 things and marry them, that will not only will manage your portfolios, but will also manage the risk as well." Why hasn't it been more successful? Is there things you can do to drive greater participation in Principal funds in the retirement business?

Daniel Houston

executive
#14

Well, as you know, our number that goes to Principal funds is about 60% of the total. The larger the plan is going to have a smaller percentage of the funds to Principal funds. The smaller plans have a tendency to look for more comprehensive solutions. The reality is, for the most part, all plans today work with an adviser. There's usually a group of trustees, fiduciaries, making decisions, evaluating fund performance, evaluating the underlying expense structures, making sure that there's good choice on the platform. But at the end of the day, you got to have competitively priced funds, and you need to make sure that you've got strong performance. The good news is we continue to evolve our platform to be able to do that. We have passive funds from Principal and non-Principal funds available. We have target dates that are 100% Principal funds and a hybrid that is a mix of multi manager. All of those become choices to small, medium and large employers to see if it's a good fit for them. And -- but long ago, the decision was made, for the most part, by advisers to split the decision between the record keeper administrator and who is going to be the asset manager. And the other sort of significant contributor to Principal's retirement success isn't even captured in what we call FSA or WSRS, the worksite retirement and full-service accumulation. But it's captured rather in our DCIO, where we have put our PGI investment options on the platforms of our competitors and gone to large plan sponsors directly. So when I look at our franchise, I know there are some organizations that never break it out. We have a tendency to break it out into fairly small components. But I think about our PRT business, the income annuity business, the traditional retirement business and of course, the DCIO and the institutional mandates that come directly out of PGI, and we've really held our own with our ability to gain market share across those segments.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#15

Obviously, there's many layers to the investment management business and Principal has been extremely successful in the emerging market class of businesses. Can we talk about fee structure a little bit. I mean, if we talk about domestic investment management, obviously, fee compression is a huge worry for investors and whatnot, but emerging markets where it's underpenetrated, there may be less pressure and there might be growth there. I guess there's 2 sort of angles I want to go. One is, why should we think that companies that are currently in the emerging market class of investments are going to be winners compared to, I guess, companies that are just starting out now? What's the advantage of incumbency? And on the other hand, how should we think about the fee pressure from emerging markets businesses compared to what's going on in domestic invest management?

Daniel Houston

executive
#16

Yes. Okay. So really 2 very different things, but they sound a lot similar, right? And so let me just take first. I think emerging markets are oftentimes misunderstood, and the reason they're misunderstood is because if I just looked at last year's results, as I said at the top of my comments, we had a $56 million bad guy last year just on currency alone across those international businesses. But if you look at the growth rates of the middle class in places like Chile and Mexico and Brazil and Southeast Asia and China, they're much larger than what we're going to enjoy for middle class growth here for the targeted market in the U.S. And so we still have a high degree of confidence in spite of regulatory changes and there will be fee pressures outside the U.S. If you just try to distill and understand the formulating of employer-sponsored or state-sponsored but publicly-supported retirement schemes, whether it's an AFP or a foray or mandatory provident fund. Whatever the particular model is in those respective countries, we think there's still a lot of growth outside of the U.S. We pulled back from India recently. You saw us exit there our back office. We have a large back office there, but as an ongoing business in retail mutual funds, we made the decision to divest to Sundaram. So a good strategic decision from my perspective. So we still have a lot of confidence. Net out FX some of the noise in Brazil on inflation, some of the encaje implications on down years. We're seeing good solid growth in the emerging markets in which we do business. As for the second part of your question, we do have good insights. We have a really nice set of international investment options for our domestic customers. We have a lot of niche investment strategies, whether it's real estate, emerging market debt, emerging market equities, high yield, certainly preferred securities. These are all really good stand-alone components to go into a qualified retirement plan or be part of a target date series, be part of a general account. And the investment performances held up. These are highly differentiated asset classes. Pricing has held up better than large-cap value, blender growth, but we recognize there will continue to be downward pressure, which means we need to create more scale, more size. And Pat Halter and his team have done a really good job doing that. And hopefully, Josh, I've answered your question, but if not, we can go back and clean that one up, however you'd like.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#17

Yes. That's a little bit more feature pressure type. Is the pressure on fees? I -- And truly, maybe I'm wrong, but it seems it's greater in the saturated domestic markets than it is in the...

Daniel Houston

executive
#18

Yes.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#19

Emerging markets where you still offer differentiated product. And I guess where I'm going is, is there a certain scale that you can get to, where you can offset the general trend of fee compression because the pool that's getting bigger, faster has a higher fee take than the pool of, I guess, assets with greater competition?

Daniel Houston

executive
#20

Yes, I think that's right. I mean, I do think that to the extent you can have differentiation, you can leverage technology within those asset management franchises. You can ensure that you've got good distribution partners. The demand for these strategies continues to go up, and most of them are quite scalable. Some of them have limitations on size. I think about a smaller mid-cap domestic strategies, there's some pressure there. But those strategies have actually held up well. In the handouts for today's material, there was actually a slide that gets into our asset management capabilities, and we manufactured more than one type by different teams, and that's provided us with a wider range of offering to our clients, and they are differentiated even within those sleeves. To your observation, the pricing has held up outside the U.S. more than it has domestically. But example, I mean, there's just different pressures and the biggest pressure we have today in Brazil is the interest rates, that were 12% and 14%. That was a fairly easy decision. A matter of fact, it reminded me of the early '80s in the U.S. How could you go wrong if you didn't have an inflationary life. You could get 5-year CDs for 16% to 18%. Well, the same sort of phenomenon was occurring in Brazil up until the last 24 months. And now you find yourself at really, really low interest rates. And so our challenge in Brasilprev is helping customers make decisions around choosing equity investment options, which, frankly, are not as revenue rich as some of these guaranteed strategies. But like all industries, we're adapting, we're leveraging technology, becoming more efficient, selling more of the product, getting scale, making acquisitions that we think will continue to have differentiated capabilities. And one of which, as you know as well, Josh, but our real estate operation in terms of the alternatives. We've had, since 1982, daily valued separate account for commercial real estate, pretty powerful investment option. You look at those returns, that's a mainstay for a lot of our clients.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#21

So we have 2 questions coming in from the audience. And the first, we mentioned acquisitions. And the first one is, what is the ROI and acquisitions from the time line for getting paid? I assume they mean in investment management. It doesn't have to be, but since that's what we're talking about. How do you think about when you want -- when you find a property to acquire investment management? What are you sort of looking at in terms of what makes it attractive? And you made the comment about exiting India. At a certain price, exiting was attractive, too. So I guess it's the same sort of question, how do you figure out what's worth investing and what's worth pulling back from?

Daniel Houston

executive
#22

Yes. So the way I would answer the response on the asset management, if you look at each of the categories, we're not looking to lower our return profile by any one of those asset classes. And again, PGI has done a really good job maintaining healthy margins. And so we would expect that. There are certain asset classes that require more capital and if you're going to deploy more corporate capital to go after that, then certainly, we need to get paid for those returns. We're always looking for mid-teens return on equity as we deploy that, and we know that the margins for asset management start kind of in the mid-30s up to as high as 50, depending upon what the asset class is, whether it's something that's more generic versus something that is more specialized, for example, like commercial real estate or preferred. So again, there's quite a range there in terms of answering the question on what the profile we would expect back. In the case of India, I wouldn't blame it on the returns you were necessarily getting on the next dollar that came in to be invested in our investment options. It has more to do with -- if you looked at Brazil and China, and Southeast Asia, domestic partners that are incredibly good at distribution, we never had that in India. India is complicated because of logistics. It's complicated because it's 1.3 billion souls. It is still very much an emerging-emerging market. And so the decision to withdraw wasn't anything to do with margins or the viability of an at scale player that has really formidable distribution in India. It's frankly more of our lack of patience to wait and deploy the new resources in India where we think deploying those in other parts of the world might be better for our shareholders. Hopefully, Josh, that helps.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#23

I think so. The second question relates to changes in -- potential changes in pension reform in Chile. To what extent does that change your appetite for Chilean risk?

Daniel Houston

executive
#24

Yes. Our Chilean appetite is still good. We have good relationships back to the government. And as you know, one of the decisions that the Chilean Government made was they could get a tax-free withdrawal out of their AFP program, which is sort of interesting. It's a different way to create a stimulus. I worry more about they were already taking a system that was under pressure from adequacy of funding for an income replacement ratio of, say, 80% of retirement. And now you've just chipped away at that. And the fact of the matter is people who didn't need the money took money out because you could do so without any negative ramifications. At the same time, and what you're speaking specifically now to is a government that is going to go back and look at their constitution and make some decisions with regards to their ongoing pension policy. And this sort of change hasn't taken place since 1973 when the Pinochet administration had effectively left. And the resulting impact is there could end up being a government program that either does it -- goes at alone or depends on the private sector. Our view is the private sector part of the AFP system that's in place today will remain in place. But remember, we have 2 businesses down there. The other business for us is [indiscernible], and its ability to have voluntary contributions because we know that the existing system is inadequate for a fully funding 80% income replacement ratio at a retirement date. So we feel we still have a good opportunity in Chile. We're having frequent conversations with the government officials and other influential parties, as we continue to work our way through that.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#25

And there's one pretty easy to answer question, I imagine on the same sort of topic. Have you considered hedging your foreign currency risk?

Daniel Houston

executive
#26

A million times. And maybe in hindsight, it was 2020. We do hedge parts of our business when we have a known need and we know we're going to repatriate those dollars. What isn't always captured in the quarterly financials is a lot of those monies are never repatriated. They're reinvested and back into those respective countries. But with GAAP accounting, that's a natural outcome of what ends up transpiring. So we have looked at it. I know that people on this call are all very financial. You're financial professionals, you're very, very informed on these issues. It's a very expensive proposition to hedge your earnings on an ongoing basis. For those of you who have followed Principal since our IPO in 2001, we had a great tailwind for the better part of 10 years because we had the benefit of strengthening the emerging market currencies. In the last 10 years, it hasn't been quite as formed -- favorable. Maybe the next 10 years gets us to where we need to get to. But I think my guess is if you look over that 20-year period of time, it could very well be a push. The fact that we didn't hedge those currencies. But as I said, hindsight, it was 2020.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#27

Changing to group benefits. There's been a lot of M&A in this space over time. I suppose you can get very deep or you can get very wide. Companies are growing their share in business there already, and people are expanding their shelves. I guess, one, can you talk a little bit about the relationship with brokers versus risk managers? And about as Principal has a wide shelf, you offer a lot of products. How that helps with the sales process over time will consolidate, should it continue? Do you need to get deeper? Or do you need to get wider to be to add insurance? I don't know if that's going to be a big item. But I guess, what are -- I guess, that's a double self. Being on the platform and being picked by the employers and employees, what are some of the learnings, I guess, about how to get the larger share of the market, and we'll continue on that thought.

Daniel Houston

executive
#28

Yes. And a lot packed into that question, Josh. I never really even gave pet insurance a lot of thought until my nextdoor neighbor, who is a physician, told me his dog had cancer. And the good news is they had the proper insurance and the costs associated with that was measured in literally thousands of dollars. And with pet ownership on the rise, I can appreciate why people very much treat their pets as a family member and the fact that insurance is highly sought after for their pets. I get that and understand that. We've had internal conversations about it. I don't know that it's a perfect fit for Principal, but it's something we think about. A more sort of a natural place for us to begin is where we've been with over 100,000 relationships with small- to medium-sized employers, that we have some form of life, disability, dental or vision insurance in place today. The brokerage distribution model has worked very effectively for us. That's very much in play. I think our average size plan is kind of in that 45 to 50 lives. They look for comprehensive solutions. We have some thing called eBenefits Edge that allows for consolidated eligibility and enrollment capabilities across a whole host of benefits, that is -- that has some appeal. But in the last, say, 5 or so years, critical illness coverage, this is sort of to your question of broadening. There's been some pickup around critical illness. There's also been pickup on voluntary benefits. I think that number for us is kind of 20% to 25% on voluntary life. So the demand for those products is high. During the COVID and post-COVID, there's more life insurance being bought than there has been historically. Ironically enough, I was looking at some of the annuals for Principal the other day and Edward Temple founded our company in 1879, and he was a banker. Our name was Bankers Life before it became the Principal Financial Group. And he thought that the way of distributing it through agents, mostly from the coast was too expensive and he had devised an insurance policy to be distributed at a fraction of the price through banks, and that was the founding of our company. But one of his thesis for even having the conversation was post civil war actions and the fact that there were many clients coming into the bank saying, "I have saved appropriate amount of money, but frankly, I haven't -- do I need life insurance?" And I would tell you that life insurance in households is down. It's down below 50%. It's unfortunate because it is crippling to families of all socioeconomic backgrounds and, frankly, affordability has never been greater. So I think the industry charge around group benefits is to leverage the workplace for the distribution of relatively simple, inexpensive life and disability products and then also continue to refine our messaging around life insurance for estate planning, for deferred comp and for business succession, whether it's buy-sell agreements and key person insurance to make sure that there's not disruption to the business if someone passes. We like that business. We think it's a great natural offset to be in the risk business, the spread business and the fee. And as you know, for us, Josh, it's about 60% fee, 20% risk and 20% spread. And there's a lot of natural benefits to being in those 3 lines of business. That's probably more than you want to hear today on the history of Principal's life insurance business, but hopefully, that helps.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#29

We haven't gone to the 1920s yet. So I think that -- no, I would -- on the 50 lives businesses, are they increase -- is there a move towards choice? I mean, I -- generally in the past, the employers were making decision for the employee. But now we have a lot of web-based tools for delivering choice. In that 50 lives category, are we seeing a demand for multiple providers for them? And [indiscernible]?

Daniel Houston

executive
#30

I'm not seeing that, Josh. I mean I think choice is always top of mind in how you deliver it. So group underwriting provides some benefits to small to medium-sized employers that if you didn't have group underwriting, you may not have the same competitiveness in pricing. So there's a bit of an offset there. These products are, I think, very competitively priced in the marketplace. They're looking for continuity. As a matter of fact, most times, it's bundled today with the same provider to have dental and vision and disability as opposed to bifurcating that. Large employers, of course, they're dealing with the complexity of multiple cities and locations and they're putting an RFP out on their health insurance. And health insurance, oftentimes is more multiple cities. We're just not seeing that on plans of, say, less than 100 employees or so.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#31

And this is for education purposes, on the supplemental and voluntary type businesses, I feel like that disability and life seems very, very underwriting intensive to get the pricing right. On the supplemental and voluntary, is there that much difference, I suppose, between a vision product for company A and company B, is the intensity of the underwriting as granular?

Daniel Houston

executive
#32

It is not. So in the case of vision and dental, those are fairly easy to underwrite from my perspective and someone who's been involved in those products for a long time. You're right, life and disability are more challenging. But I would just remind you that Principal is one of the first to bring to market state of the art accelerated underwriting, leveraging artificial intelligence and over 60% of our policies today are issued in that fashion. So information availability, the ability to accelerate and to simplify and to automate the underwriting process is good today, and it's on its way to even being better. So I don't see that as, frankly, an encumberment. I still see it as very much a differentiator for Principal. As you know, we reinsure a fair amount of our life liabilities. And so the underwriters, the reinsurers are always quite interested in how our models are working and how they accelerated underwriting practice is producing in the way of results. And so far, I would tell you, we really feel good about the testing that's associated with our ability to do that and do that in a proper way that's beneficial to both not only our customers, but also our investors.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#33

So we're currently operating under a long-term 10-year treasury yield forecast for 3.25% at Principal in 2027, which replaced a prior forecast of 4% by 2029. At the time that you set your assumptions, it was the end of the third quarter, where we're just off the bottom in U.S. treasury yields. A, I mean, there's a lot of change between changing the time line as well as the numbers. And you've addressed this before certainly on the conference [indiscernible]. Can we talk a little bit about -- we're up to above 1% now, is there a difference in being more conservative on the way down from how you will address interest rate changes on the way up or -- I guess that's the question. Should we expect that it's easier to pull it down than it is to pull it up from an accounting standpoint?

Daniel Houston

executive
#34

If someone ever told me earlier in my career that I'd be excited about a movement of the short -- or the 10-year treasury by 40 basis points, I would have said, "You got to be kidding me, what environment would that be?" And it didn't dawn on me, it could be going from 0.8 to 1.2. And as an industry, we're clearly celebrating that. And I say that a little bit in jest, but there are some reasons to believe that over a longer period of time, interest rates will creep up. I don't know that we even fully understand all the drivers to that, what happens to inflation. How do we deal with a $23 trillion to $27 trillion debt, the idea of a stimulus of another $900 billion to another $1 trillion, $2 trillion, $3 trillion, $4 trillion. Those are all staggering numbers. I mean, it's just -- it's amazing to me to think that we are creating this much debt. And at some point, it will have to be reconciled. The good news about being in the insurance industry, these liabilities, whether it's an annuity or a life insurance death benefit, these are 20-, 30- and 40-year liabilities. And so you do get a wide range of economic cycles by which to impact the results. And as you know, Principal hedges its interest rates quite deliberately. So we've got, obviously, credit risk and mortality risk. So we actually feel that we're sort of an all seasons player in low interest rates, mid and high rates. But I think that as interest rates do rise, that you are going to see increasingly a demand for more pension risk transfer and more income annuities for people who might say, you know what, that was a crazy ride. I don't want that level of volatility. Tell me one more time, if I give you for every $100,000 of lump sum, how much income do I get in retirement for the rest of my life and my wife's life or my spouse's life, I think that's really sort of the upside for this industry over the course of the next 5 to 10 years.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#35

Well, I have more questions, but I have no more time. So this is the way it works. Dan, it's been a pleasure. I really appreciate your time. I'm glad that your employees are well and safe, and you and I are talking earlier, let's get those jets in the arms as soon as possible for everybody and we'll go from there. Thank you, and take care of yourself.

Daniel Houston

executive
#36

We certainly appreciate your support, Josh and BofA, so all the best to you. Thank you. Bye now.

Joshua Shanker

analyst
#37

Bye-bye.

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