Prisma Properties AB (publ) (PRISMA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to Prisma Properties' Q4 2024 Report Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Now, I will hand the conference over to CEO, Fredrik Massing; and CFO, Martin Lindqvist. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to today's presentation of our Q4, where Martin and I will provide an overview of our financial performance and key developments this quarter. Looking at the full-year '24, Prisma have geared up for '25. One of the key highlights that we would like to start with is our successful refinancing of our loan with Swedbank and Nordea, which we communicated this morning. This involves approximately 70% of our loan portfolio. This is fantastic news for Prisma. And later in this presentation, Martin will go through the terms and explain how this will impact the company's earnings. In Q4, we continue to see strong rental income growth with an 18% increase year-over-year. Our rental income reached SEK 102 million, up from SEK 87 million. This growth was driven by acquisitions, completed projects and CPI-adjusted leases. Adjusted profit from property management amounted to SEK 47 million compared to SEK 36 million last year, an increase of 31%. Currently, we have 130 properties with a total valuation of SEK 7.3 billion. We've added 6 properties this quarter. This includes City Gross in Hoor, a retail park in Gamlestaden in Gothenburg and a property in Mora, where we plan to develop 5,400 square meters of grocery and discount retail. In total, we have completed acquisitions of SEK 525 million this quarter. Going forward, we aim to do more acquisitions while continuing to focus on our project pipeline. Furthermore, we have signed several long lease agreements, strengthening our position in both Sweden and Denmark. This resulted in a net letting of SEK 15 million for the quarter, helping us to maintain a 99% occupancy rate. We are also pleased to sustain a high WAULT of 8.7 years despite recent acquisitions that have impacted this metric on the downside. Next slide, there have been some changes among our top tenants. We continue to grow with Willys, which is now our second largest tenant. And with Axfood's acquisition of City Gross, Axfood now represents 14% of our total rental income. With all acquisitions made during Q4, the share of rental income from grocery tenants has increased to 23%. And long term, we see that we're heading towards 30% to 40%. Our acquisitions in Q4 and the coming quarters will affect our WAULT. But our organization is working hard with renegotiating contracts set to expire in the coming years to be able to defend our high WAULT.

Looking on the property portfolio, we have increased the letting area from last quarter to this quarter by 11% on the back of, of course, the acquisitions in Hoor and Gothenburg. The valuations are up slightly from Q3, where we had 6.62% average exit yield and now 6.58%, so a slight positive in the P&L there. And also, we have talked about the acquisitions, and it's been an active quarter with -- out of the 852 acquisitions you see there in the waterfall. SEK 525 million are actually from Q4. So a very active quarter.

When it comes to our ongoing projects, we currently have 5 with an expected average yield on cost of 7.9%. The first one in Hoor in Osthammar. It's an ongoing construction of Dollarstore where we signed a long lease agreement, 15 years. Estimated completion is in Q4 this year. Then we have a project in Vanersborg with Rusta. There we have signed a 10-year lease, with estimated completion in Q4. Both our projects in Rusta and Eksjo are ongoing, and both of them will be finalized now in March. And our project in Denmark in Stovring, where we signed a long lease agreement with Harald Nyborg, and that is an estimated completion in Q2. If we look at the construction starts the coming quarters, we continue to ramp up and plan to start as many projects as soon as possible. Some projects are planned to start earlier than expected and some have moved forward 1 quarter. This quarter, we have added 3 new projects on the list that we plan to start later this year. This concerns a Willys in Lycksele, where we signed a long lease agreement that will start in Q1 this year. We have also signed a 20-year lease with McDonald's in Eksjo. That project will start in Q2. And then we have a fast food project in Varnamo that will start in Q3. One project have been taken away from this list is Thisted in Denmark, which we plan not to go forward with.

Looking on the shareholder list as of end of the year, they are basically unchanged, some small, small increases on a couple of the owners on the top 10 very, very small changes in the owner list. Financial update, Fredrik has talked about the 18% increase in revenue coming from project completions, acquisitions and CPI. Looking on the NOI, we have to be aware of the strong comparison period due to the SEK 13 million other income in Q4 2023. So if we allow ourselves to adjust for that one, we compare the SEK 90 million NOI to SEK 80 million in the comparison quarter. If we look on the middle picture there, the surplus ratio goes from 93% down to 87%, looks a bit drastic. If we allow ourselves to adjust for the SEK 13 million other income in the comparison period, that SEK 93 million turns to SEK 92 million. And we also have the segmented one in the current period where the facility has been almost fully vacated. The cost base is still being negotiated down. So, that hits the surplus ratio quite hard in the quarter with SEK 3 million revenue and SEK 4 million costs. So if we exclude segmented, the surplus ratio is 91% in the quarter, so basically unchanged if we make a bit more apple-to-apple. And as we said, the profit from property management is SEK 47 million. And then there are no affecting -- items affecting comparability in the current quarter, but in the previous quarter, it was. So the SEK 47 million is a clean number, so to say. Capital structure, we have made a separate press release this morning about renegotiation that took place, which we signed this morning with Swedbank, Nordea, where we have renegotiated the full initial loan where we formed Prisma. We took up a loan with Swedbank, Prisma, which we have -- which has formed basically the base of our financing since. And the first tranche of that loan was coming due now in June 2025, but we have now renegotiated the full all 3 tranches on all durations in that loan. So, SEK 2.3 billion renegotiation, taking the average interest from 5.11 down to 4.68%, increasing debt maturity from 1.9 years up to 3.4 years. We haven't done any adjustments to the caps or swaps or anything like that. So, those remain the same. We also have the issue, as we explained last quarter, where we have the rate setting a few days into the coming quarter. So if we adjust also for that like we did last quarter, the true interest, if we look on the 5.11% should more be 4.83%. And if we also add the effect of the refinancing now in February, we're down at 4.40%, if we also include the correct rates, so to say, as of December 31. You see in the table there, the credit maturities within 1 year, SEK 839 million. That number becomes SEK 86 million now instead of SEK 839 million when we have done the refinancing. So, we're very happy with the discussions with Swedbank, Nordea, and this creates good opportunity for our growth and earnings going forward. Earnings capacity, we have increased the rental value last quarter, SEK 390 million, now SEK 448 million. And there, of course, we have Gothenburg as main contributors, but also the finalization of the project in Randers in Denmark, and we closed the vacancy in Sollentuna with KFC. We have McDonald's in Kalmar and ChopChop in Sollentuna. So we have both vacancy closures, project finalizations and acquisitions. So that's a good mix to show in the rental value. Net property costs up slightly from the last version because the volume is increasing, that number will follow, of course. And then project and asset management as well as central admin are assessed at the same level as before. So we -- as we have talked about, we have built the base to handle Prisma, and that should take -- be able to take some further volume. That financial net number is then calculated on the 5.11% average interest rate and also including assumption of interest income on the cash position of 2.56%. If we apply the renegotiated credit terms on this earnings capacity, it would go from SEK 215 million up to SEK 230 million, meaning increase from SEK 1.31 to SEK 1.40 per share. So, I think that concludes our comments, and we go to Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Albin Sandberg from Kepler Cheuvreux.

I just had 2 questions. The first is just how to reconcile the project overview that you show in the presentation, which indicates a higher number versus what we actually see in the interim reports on that table with the ongoing projects? And if you see any risks to that slide in your presentation when it comes to timing of the starts now in Q1, for example?

Which table are you talking about, Albin?

So in the interim report, you have a table of the ongoing projects on Page 7, where you state that you have SEK 183 million of total CapEx, but the number is then higher in the slide show, which I take is a positive. But I just want to understand what that difference is and what the risks would be for committed CapEx not to grow in your -- if I can call it like that, your formal interim report as we head into Q1?

Total investment in the -- list in the project, list in the presentation is SEK 183 million.

Sorry. Sorry, then I missed that.

You mean the project starts maybe or because those are not....

Yes, that's what I'm referring to.

Okay. Yes, the project start is very much higher than the ongoing number. So that -- we have project starts of SEK 761 million in the coming 3 quarters. So that is -- if you take an average per quarter, it's basically SEK 250 million per quarter, and that will take us up to a run rate of SEK 1 billion, as we talked about earlier, as the projects are basically an average 1 year in duration. So with 250 starts each quarter, we will reach SEK 1 billion over the course of '25 with this rate.

Yes, yes. And is it that you haven't really put the shovel in the ground on those planned projects? Is that when you will...

Yes. Correct. Yes. That's correct.

Okay. Good.

We are working with building permits, tenderings, signed final lease agreements. So it's planned projects for the coming quarters.

So the SEK 761 million we show in the graph there, those are a part of the total pipeline, but these are more sort of sharpen the edges and we have decision from the Board, and we are about to start. But the definition of a startup project is when we have the supplier contracted, the building supplier.

Yes. And just on the risk on that development pipeline, I mean, you referred to 1 Danish project. If you just could clarify why that was canceled and if there's any alternative use on that site or what...

This is a smaller project in Denmark, and we have some issues with the municipality and the ground. So therefore, we have decided not to go forward with that project.

On the other hand, we added as well. So, there will be small changes to this project start assessment list. So it's not 100% certainty on all of them, but quite high certainty on most of them.

Great. And then also just any update on [ Kungsbacka ]?

It's an ongoing discussion we have there with the municipality and potential tenants, and we hope we can plan to communicate something before the summer here.

Yes. And if we just look on, let's say, your view on that project when we stood at the Q3 versus now at Q4, what has happened?

It's a really good property, a fantastic location in one of Sweden's biggest and best performing retail parks. So -- but it's an ongoing negotiation with both tenants, but also discussion with the municipality. So, we are looking forward to communicate what our plans are for before the summer. That's what we aim for.

The next question comes from David Flemmich from Nordea.

A couple of questions from me. I can start with the earnings capacity. Can you just repeat what you said about the interest costs included in the earnings capacity? My understanding is that the SEK 215 million is based on the end of Q4 average interest rate. If we include the refinancing, we're up at SEK 230 million, but does that include the interest rate change effect as well? Or will that come on top of this?

It would be more the modest number here. So the formal reining rates at, so to say, formal reining rates, so you can also -- you could improve the earning capacity slightly by also taking into account the SEK 440 million instead of the SEK 468 million.

Okay. That's great. And also a question on the tax rate. The paid tax was quite low in 2024. My understanding is that you've previously talked about some 10% of income from property management in actual tax. Can you say anything for 2025, where do we see the paid tax rate?

I think we are looking into right now to classify the assets in the buildings, maybe in another way. So, we increased the depreciation period -- decreased the depreciation period. 2024 was also a special year due to the ramp-up of the company, taking a lot of sort of long-term costs. So the tax rate has, of course, been lower now as the cost base has been higher. Going forward, I don't have a new update for you, but we are working with assessing deductibility on the investments, and we are also looking forward to seeing lower interest rates, which should take away effects from the interest deductibility cap that is in effect at current rates. I look forward to doing probably better than the indicated 10%-ish going forward. But I need to come back when we have made the full analysis there.

Okay. That's great. Next question is regarding completed projects, Valsta and Munkdrup By in Q4. When during Q4 were they completed, i.e., when can we expect a full quarterly effect, so to say?

I think, you have Valsta completed in November this year.

I think 1 month.

Yes, 1 month. So -- and the second project was?

Which one?

Munkdrup By.

From Q3, you mean?

I think Munkdrup By disappeared between the Q3 and the Q4 report.

Yes. This was completed in, I believe, by the end of November, it was completed. So I would say, maximum 1 month.

Okay. So we have 1/3 effect in Q4 and should have an incremental 2/3. Okay. Perfect.

It involves 3 tenants that open up in different days. So, I would say the best guess is 1 month.

Yes.

Yes. Great. Next question, I'm not sure if I missed it or if you commented on it, but the margin on your new bank loans, can you comment on that?

Yes, we're taking the full average interest cost down by just about 40 basis points, and that is from renegotiating 70% of the debt base, so to say. And we have been transparent about that the previous average margins were between 2.20 to 2.30. So, you can make the math from that without disclosing any -- but we are signing one -- the new version of the big loan is 1 tranche of 3 years and 1 tranche of 4 years, basically 50-50. But we have -- we are very happy with the terms.

Okay. And in terms of funding potential new acquisitions, have you been in any such discussions with any of the banks? And what do you see in terms of margin movement there?

We have good interest from many banks. The strategy that we have had, increasing the number of suppliers in the balance sheet has proven successful, and we do have some unfinanced assets and acquisitions coming up that people are interested in being active in. So, we have very positive discussions with the banks, and we have some older, a bit more expensive loans from the historic reasons that we can look into as well. So, there's more potential coming and the interest from the banks is still high.

Okay. So, I interpret that as well below 200 basis points?

Yes.

Correct. Correct.

And yes, the yield on cost on your projects, it continues to move upwards. The mix obviously changes. And what do you expect in terms of the projects not yet started? Do you still see pressure on construction costs improving the yield on costs further? Or have you maxed out the potential already?

I would say the construction cost has stabilized. And it's -- when we do tenderings now, we have more interest from construction companies. So -- but it's a mix. We see stabilized construction costs. Some has gone down. We see maybe potentially in getting even higher rents from the tenants. So it's a combination and also based on where it's location in Sweden and Denmark, it's going to be -- the cost for construction is very high in the northern part of Sweden, and it's much easier to get a high yield on cost in southern part of Sweden and Denmark. So it's a mix. But the most important is that it's good locations, good tenants and it's discount retail in all 3 categories.

Okay. And last question. You have made a couple of acquisitions during Q4. Do you intend to continue to acquire properties with development potential? And what do you see in terms of supply in the market?

Yes, we're going to continue to do acquisitions. So far, all the acquisitions we've done is off-market, and we have several discussions out there. So while we can do good acquisitions, if it's getting too expensive, we are more putting focus on our pipeline. So while we can do good deals on 7 plus 5, we're going to do that. So, yes.

Great. Sorry, one final question regarding the earnings capacity again. Do you have any short-term leases that's not included in the earnings capacity rental income that could contribute to top line in the near term?

We have RE/MAX deal in Uppsala and that it's a temporary contract with quite a large number of square meters. So the average renter is not very high per square meter. That is not included and the segmented one is also not included. So, there are some revenue on top of what we say in the earnings capacity that comes on. But there are also costs mainly from segmented one, which you have to take into account because those are not included either.

We expect that the segmented one in Kungsbacka will be fully evacuated before the end of the year.

[Operator Instructions] There are no more phone questions at this time. So, I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Thank you all for joining today's presentation. Have a nice day. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you.