PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. My name is Carrie, and I will be your conference coordinator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aaron's, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Michael Dickerson, Vice President of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations for Aaron's, Inc. You may begin your conference.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Aaron's, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me this morning are John Robinson, Aaron's, Inc. President and Chief Executive Officer; Ryan Woodley, Chief Executive Officer of Progressive Leasing; Douglas Lindsay, President of the Aaron's Business; and Steve Michaels, Aaron's, Inc., Chief Financial Officer and President of Strategic Operations. Many of you have already seen a copy of our earnings release issued this morning. For those of you who have not, it is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at aarons.com. During this call, certain statements we make will be forward-looking. I want to call your attention to our safe harbor provision for forward-looking statements that can be found at the end of our earnings release. The safe harbor provision identifies risks that may cause actual results to differ materially from the content of our forward-looking statements. Also, please see our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, which will be filed later this morning, for a description of the risks related to our business that may cause the actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned not to place undue emphasis on forward-looking statements, and we undertake no obligation to update any such statements. On today's call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP net earnings and non-GAAP EPS, which have been adjusted for certain items which may affect the comparability of our performance with other companies. These non-GAAP measures are detailed in the reconciliation tables included with our earnings release. The company believes that these non-GAAP financial measures provide meaningful insight into the company's operational performance and cash flows and provides these measures to investors to help facilitate comparisons of operating results with prior periods and to assist them in understanding the company's ongoing operational performance. Lastly, effective as of the first quarter of 2019, the company adopted ASC 842, a new standard related to accounting for leases. In our press release, we have added additional information to the revenue table to provide you a year-over-year comparison on an equivalent basis. Throughout our call today, we will make comments related to the comparability of certain items with the prior year and have assumed in these comments that the adoption of this new standard was made at the beginning of each period compared. With that, I will now turn the call over to John Robinson.

Thanks, Mike, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm pleased 2019 ended on such a positive note. Progressive's invoice growth in the fourth quarter, as expected, accelerated nicely. The Aaron's Business collections performance also improved, which contributed to positive same-store revenues in the quarter and strong adjusted EBITDA. On a consolidated basis, we achieved revenue growth of 8.4% over the same quarter in 2018. This increase is primarily a result of continued strong invoice growth at Progressive, partially offset by the closure of underperforming Aaron's stores in the first half of 2019. Adjusted EBITDA and diluted non-GAAP EPS were $125.2 million and $1.15 per share, respectively, both up low double digits from the fourth quarter of 2018. The Progressive team delivered another record quarter for both revenue and earnings. Invoice volume grew 34.4% over the prior year fourth quarter due to the recent rollout of additional locations from retailers added in 2019 and increased productivity from existing retailers. The Aaron's Business same-store revenues and adjusted EBITDA increased from the prior year as a result of the improvement in collections performance throughout the quarter, expense management and gains on real estate sales. As we enter 2020, I'm encouraged by Progressive's prospects for continued strong results and the progress of the transformational initiatives in the Aaron's Business. Given our optimism, we continue to invest in people and technology to deliver future growth. We remain conservatively capitalized with a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of less than 1 turn and ended the fourth quarter with available liquidity of approximately $440 million. Our strong balance sheet and disciplined approach to capital allocation provide us flexibility to continue to invest in our businesses, pursue M&A opportunities and return capital to shareholders. Finally, as we disclosed in our earnings release this morning, Progressive has also reached an agreement in principle with FTC staff, which we expect will result in Progressive paying $175 million to the FTC and agreeing to a consent order with respect to compliance-related activities such as monitoring, disclosure and reporting. We have agreed to this proposed settlement to avoid the distraction and uncertainty caused by protracted litigation. Taking great care of customers is the centerpiece of Progressive's business philosophy and the reason the company has had so much success. For many years, Progressive has led significant innovation in a lease-to-own marketplace on behalf of the customer. There are several other capable competitors also driving innovation, but as the leader in the industry, Progressive is subject to more scrutiny. Ultimately, our objective has always been for every customer to be fully informed about their transaction and have an exceptional customer experience. The team is constantly looking at new and innovative ways to meet this objective and are always willing to incorporate feedback on how to better serve customers. Responding to the FTC's inquiry has required a significant amount of company resources and management attention. Over an 18-month period, the team provided millions of records and answered numerous questions regarding Progressive's offerings and business practices. While this inquiry has been difficult, we believe Progressive is stronger and in a better competitive position, having been through this process. Now I'll turn the call over to Ryan to discuss Progressive's outstanding fourth quarter performance and plans for 2020.

Thanks, John. I'm very pleased with the team's execution in the quarter and for all of 2019. We continue to deliver on key objectives, including the launch of large national retailers and investments in people and infrastructure, which will help contribute to growth in future periods. Net revenues rose 22.3% in the quarter as compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 to a record $559.5 million. The revenue performance was driven by consistently strong invoice growth throughout the year, capped by a 34.4% increase in the fourth quarter. The growth in the fourth quarter was a result of a 9% increase in active doors driven by rollouts of new retail partner locations and a 23.3% increase in invoice per active door. Adjusted EBITDA increased 17.6% as compared to the same period last year, driven by the strong growth in revenue, offset by slightly higher-than-expected onboarding costs for national retailers and a year-over-year increase in write-offs. As anticipated, accelerating invoice growth in the fourth quarter drove an increase in our initial impairment reserve on newly originated leases. As a result, write-offs were 6.6% of revenues in the fourth quarter of 2019, up from the 5.8% reported in the year ago period. We ended the full year 2019 at 7.2% of revenues compared to 7.0% in 2018, demonstrating consistent performance within our targeted annual range of 6% to 8% of revenues. As we look to our growth plan for 2020 and beyond, we expect to benefit from the continued ramp of newly onboarded retailers as well as from incremental growth opportunities across our existing partnerships. Historically, we've exhibited a trend of productivity improvement over time with many of our long-standing partners, supported by a strong and increasing rate of repeat business from existing customers. We expect that trend to continue. 2019 was an exceptionally successful year in terms of pipeline conversion. That said, the available addressable market remains large, and we plan to continue our investment in people and technology to attract and convert new opportunities. Consistent with past practice, our outlook for 2020 includes anticipated growth from our existing retail partners as well as the expected conversion of a portion of our retail partner pipeline where we have near-term visibility. EBITDA margin in 2020 is expected to be below 2019 but well within our long-term annual target range of 11% to 13% of revenues. The lower EBITDA margin is primarily due to pressure on gross margin from the rapid acceleration in invoice growth and the resulting younger portfolio, which we expect will increase 90-day buyout activity in the first half of 2020. In addition, our plan for this year includes approximately $15 million of incremental investments to support enhanced compliance initiatives related to our tentative agreement with the FTC. We believe these investments will further enhance the customer experience and strengthen Progressive's competitive position. Again, I'm tremendously proud of the team's performance in the quarter and the highly productive relationships we've forged with our retail partners. We believe our investments in people and technology position us well to continue to grow existing partnerships as well as attract, convert and profitably scale new retail partner opportunities. I'll now turn the call over to Douglas to discuss the Aaron's Business fourth quarter results and the plan for 2020.

Thanks, Ryan. I'm happy to report that in the fourth quarter the Aaron's Business successfully returned collections to normalized levels and generated growth in both adjusted EBITDA and same-store revenues. We achieved these results by rebalancing our sales and collection efforts as well as by reducing operating expenses. Same-store revenues increased 0.4% in the quarter primarily due to the sequential improvement in collections performance. For the full year of 2019, same-store revenues were flat, an improvement of 143 basis points from 2018. Recurring revenue written into the portfolio declined 3.3% in the quarter as lease originations were negatively impacted by the rebalancing of our sales and collection efforts and by ongoing weakness in consumer electronics, which was 20% of lease revenues in 2019. Excluding consumer electronics, recurring revenue written into the portfolio increased 4% in the quarter, with growth occurring in our highest-margin categories. Recurring revenue written is a leading indicator of same store revenues, which would have been low-single-digit positive in both 2019 and 2018, excluding the impact of consumer electronics. E-commerce continues to be a bright spot for the business, representing 14.3% of overall recurring revenue written in the fourth quarter of 2019, up from 10.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018. E-commerce recurring revenue written was up 35.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. E-commerce remains one of our key growth initiatives and an area of continued investment. Adjusted EBITDA increased $1.7 million or 3.6% compared to the year ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increase is a result of a sequential improvement in collections performance, gains on real estate sales and expense management, which were partially offset by higher write-offs. Write-offs were 7.3% of revenues in the fourth quarter, down slightly from the 7.4% in the third quarter and, as expected, elevated compared to the 5.1% reported in the same period last year. The increase in write-offs was primarily driven by the negative impact on collections performance created by our new sales initiatives in the third quarter, the closure of 155 stores in 2019 and an increasing mix of e-commerce revenues. We expect the sequential improvement in write-offs to continue going forward as we return to normalized collections performance. As a result of the reduction in recurring revenue written into the portfolio and the elevated write-offs in the fourth quarter, we entered 2020 with a lower portfolio balance than 2019. As we look to our 2020 outlook, we expect the business to be challenged by the lower portfolio size, continued pressure from consumer electronics, partially offset by continued cost savings throughout the business and lower write-offs. As you know, over the last few years, we've been testing various formats to develop our next-generation store concept. In 2019, we opened 9 new stores across several states. Thus far, these next-generation stores are achieving significant lift in lease originations and are attracting a newer and younger customer. Given that success, we expect to open approximately 25 next-generation stores this year. We will continue to monitor the results of these stores and continue to take a measured approach to future investment decisions. I'll now turn the call over to Steve to discuss our fourth quarter financial results and 2020 outlook.

Thanks, Douglas. On a consolidated basis, revenues for the fourth quarter of 2019 were $1 billion, an increase of 8.4% over the same period a year ago when calculated on a basis consistent with the 2019 adoption of ASC 842. Adjusted EBITDA for the company was $125.2 million for the fourth quarter of this year compared to $112.7 million for the same period last year, an increase of $12.5 million or 11.1%. Adjusted EBITDA was 12.5% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2019, up 30 basis points from the 12.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018 on a constant accounting basis. Adjusted EBITDA includes approximately $5.6 million of gains from real estate sales related to certain Aaron's Business locations. Diluted EPS on a non-GAAP basis for the quarter increased 12.7% to $1.15 versus $1.02 in the prior year quarter. Operating expenses decreased approximately $48.5 million. On a constant accounting basis, operating expenses would have increased $18.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to the year ago period. Increases in write-offs in both businesses and increased investments in personnel and Progressive account for more than the year-over-year increase in operating expenses, partially offset by reductions in occupancy costs and advertising expenses in the Aaron's Business. During the fourth quarter, the company recorded a $175 million charge and $4 million for fourth quarter legal expenses related to an agreement in principle to settle the Progressive FTC matter. Cash generated from operating activities was $317.2 million for the full year 2019, and we ended the year with $57.8 million in cash compared to $15.3 million at the end of 2018. During the quarter, we repurchased 513,900 shares of the company's common stock at an average price of $58.05 per share, returning approximately $32.2 million to our shareholders through these repurchases and our quarterly cash dividend. For the full year 2019, the company returned approximately $78.7 million related to the purchase of approximately 1,156,000 common shares at approximately $59.90 per share and $9.4 million in dividends. We remain conservatively capitalized and ended the fourth quarter with available liquidity of $444 million and a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.65. On January 21, 2020, the company completed an amendment to its credit facilities, which, among other changes, extends the maturity date to January of 2025 and increases the maximum revolver commitment from $400 million to $500 million. For 2020, we have included our initial outlook in the earnings release issued this morning. Cash flows from operating activities before the impact of the charge related to the tentative agreement with the FTC are expected to be approximately $375 million to $425 million in 2020. We will continue to evaluate the use of our excess cash, prioritizing investments in our businesses, followed by potential M&A activity and returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. As of December 31, 2019, the company had approximately $262 million of availability on its $500 million share repurchase authorization. On a consolidated basis, we expect lower gross margin, and therefore, lower adjusted EBITDA margin in the first half of 2020 due to the rapid acceleration in invoice growth and the resulting younger portfolio at Progressive, which we expect will increase 90-day buyout activity. Due to the higher buyout activity at Progressive and lower year-over-year results in the Aaron's Business, first quarter adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS is expected to be the lowest quarter of the year. Consolidated revenues are expected to be split roughly 50-50 between the first half and the second half of 2020, while adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin and non-GAAP EPS are expected to trail the prior year in the first half and exceed the prior year in the second half. These estimates are based on an assumed annual effective tax rate of approximately 24%, which will trend similarly to the quarterly effective tax rates in 2019. We are also assuming approximately 68 million shares outstanding throughout the year. Our 2020 outlook incorporates the expected impact of Progressive's agreement in principle with the FTC staff. Because this matter is still pending final approval, we are unable to comment beyond what is in our fourth quarter earnings release, Form 10-K and our prepared comments. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator, who will assist with the question-and-answer period.

[Operator Instructions] The first question will come from Bill Chappell of SunTrust.

Hey, two questions. I guess, first, on Progressive, I appreciate the color kind of on the 90-day payoffs affecting kind of 1Q, but trying to understand how you get some relief as you move to the back half or into even 2021 just as -- I assume these two big new customers are still at early stages on -- in terms of percentage of transactions. And as they get bigger throughout the year and they ramp, won't you continue to have them -- it will keep the portfolio fairly new. And so help me understand how, as we move to the back half and into 2021, that is alleviated.

Yes, Ryan here. Thanks for the question, Bill. If you look back, what's interesting is we saw similar trends play out in 2018. And if you look back to the latter part of Q -- of 2017, later quarters of that year, we're generating 30-plus percent growth rates. You saw the same thing happen in the first half of 2018 where you experienced higher 90-day buyout rates because you had a younger average portfolio. So we're just expecting that same trend to play out in 2020. And I know you know the dynamic, but just to sort of state it here. When you generate those high levels of invoice growth, you blend in younger leases. And younger leases, by definition, are in the period of their lease where they're eligible for those discounted early buyout options, as opposed to older and older portfolio on average, which may be outside of that window. So we're just expecting similar trends to play out in 2020 that we saw in 2018. And as you pointed out, we're very excited about those opportunities. We think they represent great long-term growth potential, obviously, all of which won't be realized in year 1, but we're excited about the results we've delivered thus far and pretty optimistic for what they'll do in 2020, which is incorporated in the plan, and certainly expect them to be big contributors going forward.

Okay. And then, Doug, just back to the kind of the same-store sales outlook for this year, I mean it looked like, over the past couple of years, we were nearing more kind of a flat or maybe even up same-store sales performance, especially with the closure of doors, and so kind of negative 2% to negative 4%, is that kind of the new long-term algorithm for the business? Or is there something else pressuring it that I'm missing? Just a little more color there would be great.

Yes, Bill, thanks for the question. As you recall, we've had -- consistently had delivery pressure on the business, kind of down the mid-single digits. And we've overcome that over the last few years by raising ticket in our merchandising strategy, which has allowed us to get to positive comps, which we saw several quarters in 2019. You may also recall in the third quarter we rolled out a sales initiative that got great lift in sales, but we came under collection pressure. Really proud of the team in the fourth quarter for scrambling, and particularly in the portfolio of business, to get collections back where they need to be and delivering positive comps in the fourth quarter. As part of that, in the fourth quarter we had some high churn in the portfolio. We were writing off deals that were originated in Q3 that churned out of the portfolio in Q4. On top of that, as I mentioned in my remarks, we had continued pressure in consumer electronics that put pressure on the revenue we were putting into the portfolio. The net-net of both of those things is we ended the year with a lower portfolio size, into 2019 with lower portfolio size than we did in 2018, and that impact carries through the course of the year. As we look into 2020, not only are we entering with lower portfolio size, we'll also have some additional charge-offs or write-offs that'll happen in the first quarter related to Q3. We expect that to churn through the portfolio early in the year and for our write-offs to lessen over the course of the year and the full year write-offs next year to be better than they were in 2019. We're also expecting, over the course of the year, to see pressure in consumer electronics continue. The good news is, consumer electronics, despite being down, we're seeing growth in both furniture and appliances which, over the course of the year -- and those are higher-margin products, as I mentioned -- over the course of the year, will begin to improve margin despite the lessening in consumer electronics. So net-net, the lower beginning balance, the trends in consumer electronics, are causing our same-store comps to be in that 2% to 4% negative range. We do expect improvement over the course of the year in collections, write-offs and margin as we see a lessening of that CE component.

The next question will come from Brad Thomas of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

I guess just to dovetail off the last question. Douglas, with the CE underperforming, obviously I think that seems to be a pretty widespread industry dynamic and declining ASP is a headwind for you. But I'd just be curious as you try to look at the ramp that occurred out of Best Buy that coincided with the CE business slowing down, what's your latest assessment of how they -- the cannibalization dynamic is affecting you on the core side?

Yes. I'm sorry, Brad. I didn't catch the middle word there. Could you just repeat that last part?

Oh, a question around how the cannibalization is evolving as partners like Best Buy ramp up in consumer electronics?

Oh, I see. Yes, we're not hearing much on that at all, actually, in the business. We've been facing these headwinds in consumer electronics for a long time. If I look back -- and by the way, we define consumer electronics as television, audio and gaming -- we've been seeing that as a lessening part of our business. If you look at the pie chart in our 10-K, you'll see 7 years ago, it represented about 35% of revenue in 2019. It's down to about -- it's down to -- at 20% of revenue. So we've been seeing this lessening over time. To us, it's all about commoditization of these electronics. As you know, there's been significant price compression in the market, generally a lack of innovation, and then we have these new providers of lower-cost products entering the market. We expect that to continue. We are not seeing any cannibalization per se. This is just a continuation of a trend. As a matter of fact, as we look at purchasing TVs, we're challenged to purchase TVs in the Aaron's Business at any lower cost than you could buy them over the holidays at Walmart or anyplace else. So when you're in the leasing business, when a 65-inch TV is selling for under $400, it becomes very challenging to put it on a lease. In addition to that, as you know, consumer preferences are changing, the way people consume content and everything else. So we expect this to continue to be under pressure. What we're doing about it is really testing various things to drive volume, whether it be price tests, remerchandising of CE in our stores and bundling with other products. But over the long term, we think CE is a declining category, and we need to replace it with new products, which we're working on actively right now, and you should expect to see those in our show rooms this coming year.

Great. And then, I guess, a question about thinking about the core, for John and Steve, if you want to chime in. Just given the step down in EBITDA we're looking for the core in 2020, some of these headwinds may be transitory, some may be items that persist. Does it change your thinking at all on how big the core should be, and potentially any strategic options that you might have for it?

Yes, Brad, it's John. Thanks for the question. We really believe in the Aaron's Business and the direct-to-consumer channel. There's a lot of advantages for us to control that channel to the customer. And we still believe it's an attractive investment for us to make. The Aaron's Business has been a leader for decades, and we believe it will continue to be in that direct-to-consumer model. We think the model has to be a robust e-comm platform. And probably, over time, fewer, better looking, better located and ultimately, higher-volume stores. And those two channels will support, we believe, the same markets or even perhaps some new ones. And we're fortunate to be able to execute on that because we've got the supply chain in place and last-mile delivery already in place. So we feel like we have the right assets. The team is doing a really good job of trying to manage transformation toward that model while also managing near-term profitability, and they've done a good job. Douglas and the team really have done a good job on that, but it's tough. They've discovered some new kind of faster-moving water with e-comm and with these new store concepts, and we believe they're on the right track in terms of transforming them. But we're going to keep taking a prudent approach to how much capital we put in the business, and we'll continue to evaluate results as we go. And I think that's one of the benefits. One of the good news about the Aaron's Business is that as we move to that model, it does generate quite a bit of cash as you take working capital out of the system. So that's a very attractive aspect of the business model that helps with that. In terms of kind of bigger picture strategic thinking, Steve has a strategy team. He and I work with that team all the time, thinking about how do we optimize the assets we have and then looking outside the company for opportunities that can enhance what we have. And that's kind of an ongoing process that we're constantly thinking about. And we understand it's our job to do that and to figure out the best ways to create long-term value. So we're certainly always thinking about those sorts of things.

That's helpful, John. And if I could squeeze one more in here for Ryan, not let you get off here. Really impressive invoice growth here in the fourth quarter, the 34% number. That's usually a good indicator of what revenues may look like in the next quarter, at least directionally. Can you help us think about how to model Progressive revenues in the next few quarters, what that cadence might look like? And I guess if I try to push you a little bit here, you're guiding full year revenue up 19% to 24%, even though we're coming off of this great 34% number. And obviously, you should have Lowe's ramping up, too, this year. Any more color on how to think about revenue guidance would be great.

Yes, happy to share some thoughts on that, Brad. Thanks for the question. I appreciate you mentioning Q4, it was a very strong quarter at 34% growth, very excited about that. Obviously, the team worked really hard to deliver those results. As that translates into 2020, I'll just offer sort of a few ways to think about it. First, a meaningful portion of that growth that we experienced in Q4 was obviously related to the holiday shopping season and the seasonality of consumer electronics in particular, and that trend doesn't extend similarly to other verticals necessarily or other quarters. So that's one thing I'd say. The second thing is, as we've seen previously, and I mentioned this a bit earlier, with other national launches, improving productivity is really more of a multiyear opportunity. We're obviously very happy with where we're at and the opportunity in 2020, but also happy with the years ahead and the opportunity that lies there. And we're seeking -- we're working hard with our partners to realize that opportunity. And the other thing I would mention is that while we believe it continues to be a very large market that is -- the vast majority of which remains unserved, in keeping with past practice we've really only factored in pipeline conversion where we have near-term visibility. So that's just how we think about it, that's just the approach we take and sort of blend all those in with where we're at. We're very bullish about the year. We're guiding to a midpoint that assumes accelerating revenue growth on $2.5 billion of net revenue. So it's becoming a very large business. To generate accelerating range of revenue growth on that has us very excited, and I think we're on the trajectory we expected to be on.

The next question will come from Bobby Griffin of Raymond James.

Not to stay on the core, and I appreciate all the details you guys have given so far, but I'm still struggling to understand the moving parts on the profitability aspect. It seems like consumer electronics has been pretty weak all year. We're calling out right in higher-margin business on other areas in the category. So what exactly has really changed since the end of 3Q to have the core profitability go from flattish to slightly down? So all of a sudden, down $35-plus million in EBITDA for next year?

Yes, Bobby. This is Douglas. So if you look at our EBITDA last year, right, we came in at $166 million. There was a little bit of hurricane benefit in that number, and we're now guiding down to $125 million to $135 million. 100% -- or more than 100% of that delta has to do with this beginning balance decline that we're coming into the year on, and that has to do with, as I mentioned before, on same-store comps, churning out of the portfolio of some deals in the third quarter and fourth quarter related to lower collections and softness in CE. The good news is that we are growing in 3 of our other major categories that are higher-margin categories. But despite that growth and the offsetting of CE over the course of the year, that lower beginning balance has put pressure on the overall earnings. And as you know, we're a high operating leverage business and high fixed costs. So we're working actively to take expenses out. We are expecting lower write-offs over the course of the year and we are making some investments in our e-comm and real estate strategy over the course of the year. But the main delta year-over-year is the beginning balance and slight -- and impact of CE.

Okay. Was the holiday quarter itself just weaker around that than originally anticipated? Or how we were churning to end 3Q? And then, I guess, the second part of my question, completely unrelated, but is there -- what is the opportunity on the real estate side of things? If this is kind of the new normal for the core, is there any initiatives or kind of first thinking of pulling out stores, where we can have less stores but more volume per stores to try to improve where this profitability is in the core business?

Sure. First of all, the holiday season was softer than we had anticipated. Again, the team was spending a lot of energy in the early fourth quarter and actually through the quarter getting collections back in line, which they did a great job of. Our collections went up 350 basis points from where they were in the third quarter, and we were able to post positive comps because of that. We saw softness, really, primarily in CE in the fourth quarter, but we saw strength in our other 3 categories, which are furniture, appliance and outdoor. All of them were positive growth in the quarter. I think they were a bit dampened by our collection efforts and sort of rebalancing the portfolio, but I feel we came out of Q4 fully balanced and ready to sort of attack the new year. And so we're expecting growth in those 3 categories, our highest-margin categories, but not enough to offset this continued decline in CE. In terms of real estate, John mentioned this, but we're going to be constantly looking at our real estate portfolio. One thing we've done, I think, well over the last 3 years is shortened the term of our real estate leases. So we have a lot of flexibility in our portfolio. We have a real estate committee [ that regularly ] meets, that looks at store profitability, see where there are opportunities for closed merges. But we're really excited about that in combination with our new store concept. This new store concept, just our renovates in place, are getting lift, and we believe those are good investments. But when you combine that with repositioning our real estate and potentially merging customers into one box, we think we get leverage on our fixed cost base and a higher return. So we're going to start doing a little bit more of that in 2020. You should expect continued store closures over the course of the year, but many of those will be into boxes or sort of merges of stores into bigger boxes with our new store concept. We're really excited about that. We've hired a real estate team and are building capabilities to do that faster than we have in the past. And with these shortened lease terms, it's going to allow us to pivot the portfolio and drive profitability.

The next question will come from Kyle Joseph of Jefferies.

Ryan, I just want to get your outlook for credit performance in 2020, particularly given sort of the more immature -- the immature portfolio and the higher 90-day buyout activity, and what sort of impact that has on loss rates?

Thanks, Scott. Happy to. Yes, we're happy with what we see in our lease portfolio metrics. Obviously, we explained the delta in Q4 relative to Q4 of 2018 by talking a little bit about the impact of growth and the provisioning. I think you know this, but the nuance and how we booked that is that you have an initial reserve that you book on leased assets, and growth doesn't do any favors there. And so the strong growth in the quarter really drove increased provisioning, which is the primary driver of that delta. But happy with where we sit looking into the new year. And obviously, when you see higher rates of 90-day buyouts that tends to be accompanied by lower write-offs, so it's kind of a healthy dynamic when it comes to portfolio metrics -- portfolio performance metrics.

Got it. That's helpful. And a follow-up for you as well, Ryan, just can you touch on the competitive environment in the virtual lease-to-own segment? And you talked about your pipeline and your overall conversion, but given the competitive dynamics, can you give us a sense for your pipeline in terms of whether it's regional or more nationwide retailers?

Yes, it remains very competitive. I'm sorry to be a broken record on that one, but it's been intensely competitive for years now. There's a lot of competitors in this market. We have new folks who have entered, folks who've been around for a while sort of changing their strategy, and we're constantly innovating and evolving kind of in our own right but also in response to what we're seeing in the marketplace. I expect that trend will continue. Invariably, those competitors that exist will become larger as they execute their strategies. And I expect they'll be more of a threat as we sort of go into the future. And we're -- that's how we've been thinking about the business, that's why we've been making the investments we have in people and technology, people and systems, to continue to kind of lead out when it comes to the customer and retailer offer. Our teams are working very hard in that regard. I'm very happy with how we're positioned today. I think we're positioned for a lot of success. And if you just -- I go back to it a lot, but we believe it's a $25 billion market, $5 billion to $6 billion of which is currently being served today. So the vast majority of what we're talking about is greenfield rather than share shift among existing competitors.

Sure. And then last one for me. Sorry, also for Ryan, but -- so just -- you talked about consumer electronics and the impact on the Aaron's Business. Can you give us any color or any sort of impacts you're seeing on the Progressive side of the business related to consumer electronics?

Yes, yes, obviously, we're experiencing growth in that vertical given sort of recent opportunities that we've onboarded. And we're pleased with the activity that we're seeing there. We're sort of on the front end of that, given that dynamic of having introduced new partners, so less exposed to a variance on an existing trend in that regard.