Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
July 29, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood day, and welcome to the Prosperity Bancshares Second Quarter Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Charlotte Rasche. Please go ahead.
Charlotte Rasche
executiveThank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Prosperity Bancshares Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being broadcast live on our website and will be available for replay for the next few weeks. I'm Charlotte Rasche, Executive Vice President and General Counsel of Prosperity Bancshares. And here with me today is David Zalman, Senior Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; H.E. Tim Timanus, Jr., Chairman; Asylbek Osmonov, Chief Financial Officer; Eddie Safady, Senior Vice Chairman; Kevin Hanigan, President and Chief Operating Officer; Robert Franklin, Vice Chairman and former CEO of Stellar Bancorp; Randy Hester, Chief Lending Officer; Mays Davenport, Director of Corporate Strategy; Bob Dowdell, Executive Vice President; and Ray Vitulli, Houston area Chairman and former President of Stellar Bancorp. David Zalman will lead off with a review of the highlights for the recent quarter. He will be followed by Asylbek Osmonov, who will review some of our recent financial statistics; and Tim Timanus, who will discuss our lending activities, including asset quality. Finally, we will open the call for questions. Before we begin, let me make the usual disclaimers. Certain of the matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the federal securities laws, and as such, may involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results or performance of Prosperity Bancshares to be materially different from future results or performance expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to be materially different than those in the forward-looking statements can be found in Prosperity Bancshares' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission including Forms 10-Q and 10-K and other reports and statements we have filed with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Now let me turn the call over to David Zalman.
David Zalman
executiveThank you, Charlotte. I would like to welcome and thank everyone listening to our second quarter 2026 conference call. I'm excited to announce that on July 1, 2026, Prosperity Bancshares completed the merger of Stellar Bancorp and its wholly owned subsidiary, Stellar Bank, headquartered in Houston, Texas. Stellar Bank operated 52 banking offices, including its main office in Houston and banking offices in the Houston, Beaumont and East Texas areas and in Dallas, Texas. I'm also pleased to announce that Robert Franklin, former CEO of Stellar Bancorp; and Joe Swinbank, a former Stellar Director have joined the Prosperity Bancshares' Board of Directors and that Ray Vitulli, former CEO of Stellar Bank; and Pat Parsons, a former Stellar Bank Director have joined the Prosperity Bank Board of Directors. Pat was instrumental in building Sellers Beaumont franchise over the years. With regard to earnings, excluding the gain on the Visa Class B2 stock exchange and net of investment security sales that we had and merger-related expenses, net income was $162 million, and earnings per diluted common share was $1.62 for the 3 months ended June 30, 2026 compared with $135 million or $1.42 per diluted common share for the same period in 2025. This represents a 20.4% increase in net income and a 14.1% increase in diluted earnings per share. These earnings for the second quarter of 2026 do not reflect any contribution from Stellar. Excluding onetime merger-related expenses and charges related to security sales, Stellar had $42.1 million in pretax pre-provision core income. Assuming a 21% tax rate, Seller's second quarter net income would have been approximately $33 million. Annualizing this amount for Stellar and Prosperity second quarter core net income after excluding the nonrecurring items, shows an annual run rate of about approximately $780 million. This does not reflect any cost savings that we expect to achieve after the operational integrations of American Bank in September, Texas Partners Bank in November and Stellar Bank in March of 2027. As mentioned on prior calls, these are the results we expected, and we believe these tailwinds should continue to be positive for the near future. With regard to loans, loans were $25 billion at June 30, 2026, an increase of $2.8 billion or 12.8% compared with the $22.2 billion at June 30, 2025, and this was primarily due to the American Bank and Texas Partners Bank mergers. Loans, excluding warehouse purchase program loans, were $23.7 billion at June 30, 2026 compared with $23.8 billion at March 31, 2026, a decrease of $117 million. We experienced paydowns this quarter with our 1-to-4 family residential portfolio, decreasing $100 million plus as well as other large pay downs. We also are focusing on the integration of our new -- with our new partners. Our deposits were $32.6 billion at June 30, 2026, an increase of $5.1 billion or 18.7% compared with $27.4 billion at June 30, 2025, primarily again due to the American Bank and Texas Partners merger. Our linked quarter deposits decreased $33 million from $32.6 billion at March 31, 2026. However, our noninterest-bearing deposits increased $159 million during the second quarter of 2026. Our noninterest-bearing deposits of $10.7 billion at June 30, 2026, represent 32.9% of our total deposits. The net interest margin on a tax equivalent basis was 3.47% for the 3 months ending June 30, 2026 compared with 3.18% for the same period in 2025 and 3.51% for the 3 months ended March 31, 2026. The net interest margin in the first quarter of 2026 was impacted by a onetime loan interest income of $4 million from a nonaccrual loan. The net interest margin continues to be positively impacted by the repricing of assets as we predicted and mentioned during previous calls, and Asylbek will give you a lot more color, but we're really excited where our net interest margin is headed. Asset quality. Our nonperforming assets totaled $130 million or 34 basis points of quarterly average interest-earning assets at June 30, 2026 compared with $122 million or 33 basis points of quarterly average interest-earning assets at March 31, 2026 and $110 million, again at 33 basis points of quarterly average interest-earning assets at June 30, 2025. So you saw somewhat of an increase there, but based with the new banks that have come in with this and the amount of assets we're still basically at the same ratio. The allowance for credit losses on loans and off-balance sheet credit exposure was $420 million at June 30, 2026. The allowance for credit losses on loans was 2.9x the amount of nonperforming assets. With regard to acquisitions, we are excited about the synergy we have with our new partners, Stellar Bank, Texas Partners Bank and American Bank. Our top priority is the operational integration of all 3 banks and our combined teams are working very hard to ensure they are successful. While we continue to have conversations with other bankers regarding potential acquisition opportunities, we remain focused on the integration of our 3 transactions. Texas has one of the strongest and most diverse state economies in the U.S. ranking as the second largest by GDP after California and approximately the eighth largest economy in the world. Oklahoma has a smaller but stable economy, heavily influenced by oil and gas with more modest growth. Texas continues to shine as more people and companies move to the state because of the business-friendly political structure and no state income tax. Prosperity continues to focus on building core relationships, maintaining sound asset quality and operating the bank in an efficient manner while investing in ever-changing technology and product distribution channels. We intend to continue to grow the company both organically and through mergers and acquisitions. I want to thank everyone involved in our company for helping to make it the success it has become. Thanks again for your support of our company. Let me turn over our discussion to Asylbek Osmonov, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss some of the specific financial results we achieved. Asylbek?
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveThank you, Mr. Zalman. Good morning, everyone. Net interest income before provision for credit losses for the 3 months ended June 30, 2026, was $330.6 million, an increase of $62.8 million compared to $267.7 million for the same period in 2025, an increase of $9.4 million compared to $321.2 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The net interest margin on a tax equivalent basis was 3.47% for the 3 months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 29 basis points compared to 3.18% for the same period in 2025 and a decrease of 4 basis points compared to 3.51% for quarter ended March 31, 2026. The linked quarter margin decrease was primarily due to the previously mentioned onetime loan interest income of $4 million recorded during the first quarter of 2026. Excluding this onetime loan income, net interest margin increased by 1 basis point on a linked quarter basis. Excluding purchase accounting adjustments, the net interest margin for the 3 months ended June 30, 2026 was 3.41% compared to 3.14% for the same period in 2025 and 3.44% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The fair value loan income for the second quarter 2026 was $4 million compared to $3.7 million for the first quarter of 2026. Fair value loan income for the third quarter 2026 is expected to be in the range of $6 million to $8 million. Noninterest income was $60.7 million for the 3 months ended June 30, 2026 compared to $46.5 million for quarter ended March 31, 2026, and $43 million for the same period in 2025. The higher noninterest income during the second quarter of 2026 includes a net gain of $8.2 million, resulting from the conversion of Visa stock, partially offset by loss on the sale of investment securities. The noninterest expense was $176.2 million for the 3 months ended June 30, 2026, compared to $217.3 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and $138.6 million for the same period in 2025. The first quarter included merger-related expenses of $42.5 million. For the third quarter of 2026, we expect noninterest expense to be in the range of $244 million to $250 million. This includes the additional Stellar bank operations. However, this projection does not include any onetime merger-related expenses associated with the Stellar merger. Efficiency ratio was 46% for the 3 months ended June 30, 2026, compared to 59.2% for quarter ended March 31, 2026 and 44.8% for the same period in 2025. The bond portfolio metrics at 6/30 2026 have a modified duration of 3.7 and projected annual cash flows of approximately $2.2 billion. I will now provide a high-level overview of Stellar financial performance for the second quarter of 2026. Stellar also delivered strong financial results during the quarter. Stellar's net interest income before provision for credit losses for the 3 months ended June 30, 2026, was $106.4 million, an increase compared to $105.9 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The second quarter results included onetime merger-related expenses and losses related to the sale of certain investment securities. Excluding these onetime charges, Stellar's adjusted pretax pre-provision net income was $42.1 million, an increase of $2.9 million compared to the first quarter of 2026. Now let me turn over the presentation to Tim Timanus for some additional detail on loan and asset quality. Timanus?
H. E. Timanus
executiveThank you, Asylbek. Our nonperforming assets at quarter end June 30, 2026, totaled $130,576,000 or 52 basis points of loans and other real estate compared to $122,107,000 or 48 basis points at March 31, 2026. Since June 30, 2026, $5 million of nonperforming assets have been removed or put under contract for sale. The June 30, 2026, nonperforming asset total was comprised of $119,271,000 in loans, $9,000 in repossessed assets and $11,296,000 in other real estate. Net charge-offs for the 3 months ended June 30, 2026, were $2,183,000 compared to net charge-offs of $41,309,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. There was no provision to the allowance for credit losses during the quarter ended June 30, 2026. No dollars were taken into income from the allowance during the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The average monthly new loan production for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, was $454 million. compared to $312 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Loans outstanding at June 30, 2026, were approximately $25.028 billion compared to $25.288 billion at March 31, 2026. The June 30, 2026 loan total is made up of 34% fixed rate loans, 33% floating rate loans and 33% variable rate loans. I will now turn it over to Charlotte Rasche.
Charlotte Rasche
executiveThank you, Tim. At this time, we are prepared to answer your questions. Our call operator, Dave, will assist us with questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Janet Lee with TD Cowen.
Sun Young Lee
analystFrom the last call, you've talked about net interest margin reaching the 3.70 level as you exit '26 and then getting in the 3.80 range in 2027. Are you -- do you still have a good light of sight into reaching that level? Or is there any changes to the outlook versus before?
David Zalman
executiveJanet, No, we -- our models are still showing is hitting, I think, again, Asylbek may want to jump in on this, but we're still saying that we'll end up with 3.75 at the end of the year, but our models are still showing 3.70 to 3.80 .
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveYes. So yes, it is. We provided guidance of 3.70 million. I think we're going to increase to 3.70 to 3.75 because with additions still very accretive to us. So the guidance stays the same. And for 2027, we said 3.80, I think still for whole year, 3.80, 3.85, that will be updated guidance.
David Zalman
executiveThe only caution I would put is we start getting past to 3.7% of net interest margin, we still are very competitive. We offer some of the competitive CD rates, but we've been a little bit lower on our money market accounts, and we may want to raise our money market accounts rate just a little bit. So that may temper the net interest margin a little bit anyway. We may be -- again, maybe trying to grow more organically at that point in time once we hit 3.7%.
Sun Young Lee
analystOkay. Makes sense, but the 3.80-plus range still contemplates that you're raising rates on your deposits?
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveSome rate, yes, we have increased some of them. So yes. But...
Sun Young Lee
analystOkay. Got it. I understand that the priorities is on the integration part. But on the Stellar side, perhaps or even on the legacy prosperity side. What are you seeing in terms of loan growth and demand there? It looks like outside of the mortgage warehouse, it was fairly stable quarter-over-quarter. Just wanted to see what you're seeing on that front.
Kevin Hanigan
executiveYes. This is Kevin. I'd say for the remainder of the year, company-wide, still relatively flat for the remainder of the year. That does include Stellar has got a pretty robust pipeline [ billion to us ], right? And so they feel as though they'll grow their loans, they're grow them about $200 million in the first half of the year, they'll probably grow them another $200 million in the back half of the year. But overall for the company, I would call it flattish for the remainder of the year. Maybe on the better news front, as Tim said, production has been picking up and we have several hundred million, probably closer to $400 million construction deals, which we've approved so far this year that are booked. They're in our pipeline. They will not provide any funding this year as all the equity has to go into those deals first. But beginning in the first quarter and more materially in the second quarter of next year, the pull-through of those deals is going to start generating some positive overall company growth.
H. E. Timanus
executiveAnd this is Tim. Everything that Kevin said is accurate in my opinion. We do forecast stability going forward. We have a decent pipeline of loans. We see decent loan activity out there in the marketplace. Really, the only thing we see that's a hindrance is some of the very, very aggressive structure and pricing that the competition is putting forward. So we have to be cognizant of that and careful with it. But basically, everything looks decent right now.
Kevin Hanigan
executiveYes. As Tim said, it's no news to all of you on the call, but credit spreads are at 25- or 30-year lows across the risk spectrum. I mean some things out there just getting to the point of being ridiculous we have looked at 2 meaningfully large transactions in the last 2 weeks, priced at SOFR 125. The math on that yields you an opening day coupon like 4.83 which is ridiculously low. And it's not like either one of those things came with masses or amounts of demand deposits and relationships. So just risk reward across the spectrum right now is, I think, slightly mispriced.
David Zalman
executiveAnd I'll give you a little bit more color because I think that no district aspect, but the analysts continue to want to show just the growth in the loans and growth all the time. But I think you need to take profitability in the consideration. And just to give you a little color last week, we had a loan committee. It was a rate aid company. There's no question about it, but the -- it was a $20 million credit and it was priced at with especially some of the regional banks coming from outside the state trying to make a mark inside the state. They priced it at a 7-year fixed rate of 5.5% with a 25-year amortization. And of course, there's not many of any deposits with that. And so you have to consider, okay, do I want to make a loan at 5.5%? Or can I go with a pretty high duration? Or do I want to just go buy a money buy a mortgage-backed security with a 4.8-year duration and get 5%. So can we really operate on 50 basis points. And I would tell you the difference is, no, you can't pay the lender, the officer reserve for loan loss and make it off of 50 basis points. So we're really -- I guess my point is we're really paying attention to profitability at the same time. It's not an excuse, but I think that you guys just need to know that, too. We're just not going to just -- we're not going to just put loans on it. Most of the loans that come, the bigger loans they come, they're really more of a dry relationship. I mean if you're really bringing over a customer and you're bringing over the customer deposits and total relationship, that's a completely different story. And even that rate may make some sense. But the bigger dry relationship is just to grow loans to grow loans at that kind of pricing, in my opinion, doesn't make a lot of sense.
Operator
operatorAnd the next question comes from Brett Rabatin with Stonex Group.
Brett Rabatin
analystI wanted to start on the other income. I know there was some noise in 2Q with the gains in the securities. Was the increase in other, was that related to anything in particular? And does that continue from here?
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveYes. On the other one, we had just about $2.5 million just, I would say, annual income that we get that, but it's not going to be expected maybe next quarter, but there was an annual income would generate about $2.5 million. Other than that, everything is a core except of course, gain on diesel stock. So if you're thinking going forward, I would say our range around [ $50 million ] prosperity before Stellar and Stellar has $5 million to $6 million. So I would say between $54 million to $56 million, that would be a good run rate on the noninterest income.
Brett Rabatin
analystOkay. That's great color. Appreciate that, Asylbek. And then David, you were just talking about your kind of thesis on loans versus securities and with where the bond market has moved. I was just curious if there was any maybe increased appetite to actually grow the securities portfolio from here? And just thoughts on how you view the securities portfolio size kind of post Stellar integration?
David Zalman
executiveWell, again, our first focus will always be loans. But on the other hand, when the price is getting to where it is right now, you really can't we're not going to put a bunch of stuff on the books and just to grow loans and not be profitable and take the risk. So I would say, I think you'll continue to see -- we'll focus on building loans first. But whatever we don't, we'll continue to put into the bond market. And we still grow organically. It's so hard for you guys to see. But when we strip out the banks that have joined us, I think, Colin, you did showing yesterday that our deposits actually have grown organically about 3.2%. So once things always stabilize, we'll state 2% to 4% organic deposit growth all the time. It's just when you put all these things together and some customers come, some customers leave, it will take the year or so. But we'll always have organic growth, and that in itself always outproduce what we are able to put loans sometimes. So I think you'll have a combination of both growth in loans and deposit loans and securities really going forward.
Brett Rabatin
analystOkay. And then if I could just ask 1 quick last one, just around -- it sounds like you guys are still seeing some irrational stuff on the lending side, what the monthly loan production was obviously stronger linked quarter. Would you guys attribute that to just increased activity in the markets customer gains, anything in particular you would point to just kind of describe the linked quarter improvement in loan production?
H. E. Timanus
executiveYes. Once again, we see things as being very stable and maybe growing a bit. Our people are constantly out there trying to bring customers in and that obviously includes loan customers as well as deposit customers. The problem with the pricing and the structure that we're seeing in the market, those things historically come and go. And right now, they're here. We're having to deal with it. But how long it lasts, I guess, is anybody's guess. So I think there's reason to think that we can improve our loan growth and therefore, improve our loans outstanding. You have to understand that quite often, the loans that we put on the books don't fund right away. They're construction loans, they're different types of loans where equity has to come in and get funded first. So it can be a few months before we start funding those loans. So that's a normal time delay. That's a good thing, not a bad thing. So I see a lot of positive things out there and not that many negative things other than the current structure that we're having to deal with on a competitive basis.
David Zalman
executiveBut the bottom line, Tim, as Brent -- again, Texas is still growing. You're still seeing businesses move into Texas. You're seeing population growth and business growth. So I think we're still going to have opportunities to grow and build the portfolio. I mean we saw a lot more -- we saw more production this time. A lot of it was pay downs, too. I mean just the 1 to 4 families, if you look at it, it was over $100 million decrease. And again, we're getting pay downs in that. In the housing market, people haven't been willing with the higher interest rates to lock in and to buy the 1 to 4 family. So a lot of our paydowns were in that category right there. But Texas is still it's probably the best market out there. There's just no question about it.
H. E. Timanus
executiveThat's absolutely correct. And Oklahoma is doing well also. So from a geographical standpoint, everywhere we operate right now looks good.
David Zalman
executiveAnd again, again, we're probably more cautious. We're probably more focused on profitability than some of the other banks because we don't want to just put loans on the books just to say that we've grown loans to at the same time. So we're trying to balance that out.
Operator
operatorAnd the next question comes from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.
Manan Gosalia
analystYou spoke about credit spreads being at multi-decade lows in the $20 million credit line. I guess the question is how widespread is that competition on structure and pricing? Is that happening for a specific loan segment like construction or a specific type of client where there might be a higher likelihood maybe of getting other business down the line. Or is it widespread across construction, CRE, middle market C&I.
Kevin Hanigan
executiveYes. The SOFR 125s are outliers. That's 2 deals, both of them pretty recent, but I'd say that's 2 deals that I think we go back all the way back into December, January time frame. It's 2 deals from then to now. So there's 2 recent deals, very large prominent clientele. Asylbek can probably give you a little bit of color on originations, both in pricing on originations at both at Stellar and at Prosperity for the last quarter that might help you understand what we are doing.
David Zalman
executiveBut I would also say, though, that the one that I described with the 7-year fixed rate with a 25-year amortization at 5.5% is not unusual, and that's -- those are loans that everybody is bidding on. I mean they're not deposit -- they're not bringing deposits to the bottom line. That's loans like on 1 to 4 family -- not 1 of 4 family multifamily units, retail centers office buildings and stuff like that. And it's just -- it's just going to the lowest bidder for the most part.
H. E. Timanus
executiveYes. And Asylbek, let me mention before you start, that it is not across the board. It is primarily the larger loans. And what we're seeing more often than not is the large banks or relatively large banks that have recently entered the Texas market are trying to enter the Texas market. And they're focused on those larger loans. They make a bigger splash that way, and it's understandable.
David Zalman
executiveI think that's a good point, Tim. I mean it's not everybody is doing this...
H. E. Timanus
executiveIt's not everybody.
David Zalman
executiveAnd if you ask me, I can put them on 1 hand, and I don't even need all 5 fingers.
H. E. Timanus
executiveYes. It's mostly the bigger loans.
David Zalman
executiveIt's a couple of the banks that have come in more the regionals, the bigger regions that are trying to buy their way into the market. And I'm not saying that they're wrong. We -- when we go into a market before we did a lot of mergers and acquisitions if we started to open up a banking center or something we would give special deals to. And I guess that's what they're trying to do at the same time. But it's still not across the board, but these are all very large loans, and it's just rate driven and I think that's the way they can say that they're making us flash. That's just my opinion.
H. E. Timanus
executiveRight. So Asylbek.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveYes, I'm just going to give the facts. The average loan production month for Q2 that Tim mentioned the $454 million. The average rate on that blended was around 6.5%. And I think when we talked to -- we looked at Stellar's #2, I think the new loans they're putting up also around 6.5%. So we're comfortable at that point. So we know that our fixed loans and some loans are going to be repriced at the higher rate at this rate.
Manan Gosalia
analystThat's all very helpful color. I really appreciate it. I guess when we talk to some of the other banks that have been talking about looking at the all-in returns of their client relationships, not just the loans and deposits, but also, I guess, cash management, investment banking, et cetera. I guess the question for you is, as you do more acquisitions, as you grow the size of the balance sheet, is there anything that you need to invest in on the product side or on the fee side to capture more of the economics of the client?
David Zalman
executiveWell, I think that's the good news is that over the last 3 years, we spent a lot of time, money and energy on our new technology. If we wouldn't have we wouldn't -- we had our own computer conversion that we had from -- we were on [ Fester ] from one platform to the DNA product. If we wouldn't have done that and spent all that money in time, there's no way that we could have done these 3 deals that we're doing right now. So I think that we're well positioned because we did spend the time, the money and the energy to let us know that we did want to be a bigger bank and to do that, we had to have the technology, and I think that you're seeing that growing. And I think that we're even bringing in some really good people, especially at Texas partners that has a lot of experience and a lot of big bank experience with treasury management, and I see our treasury management really growing and our products, I think, are very, very good.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.
Peter Winter
analystI was wondering, Kevin, can you give an update on the mortgage warehouse business? And just also with this increase in mortgage rates, does that kind of virtually shut down refi activity?
Kevin Hanigan
executiveYes. Refi activity is not all the way shut down. There's always been some but it has been muted. And as I just look at the first 28 days of the quarter, so through last night. I think we're averaging right at $1.250 billion in outstandings, which is off from the $1.316 billion or whatever it was [ $316 ] in Q2. So that's a little unusual for the third quarter. Usually, third quarter is pretty good, particularly in July and August, with September being a little off. So it wouldn't surprise me if we average $1.2 billion, maybe as good as $1.225 billion in Q3, which is -- it's roughly $100 million off the average of Q2.
Peter Winter
analystGot it. And then David, just how are you thinking about deposit growth in the second half of the year? And you mentioned you might get a little bit more competitive on money market rates, but just how you're thinking about deposit rates going forward, assuming the Fed is on hold?
David Zalman
executiveI was wondering if you're going to ask me a question, Peter. Thank you. No, it's hard to tell you that you're going to see a lot of growth because when you do these deals, there are some relationships that come and go. The only thing I can tell you is, and we really believe this, our numbers show this. that on an organic basis on legacy deposits, we always have continued to grow 2% to 4% and where we do lose is when new banks join us and they may have been paying a higher interest rate than we've been willing to pay or there may have been some circumstances or the customer just so they'd like us to be part of that deal. But I think over time, if you ask me to make -- I guess, first of all, the Fed, a lot of people were talking about them raising rates because of inflation. I think the Trump [indiscernible] this new guy in [indiscernible] and he's not going to raise rates in my opinion. Having said that, I think our modeling guy has put in, what, 25-point in...
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveEnd of the year.
David Zalman
executiveEnd of the year. And so I don't think they will. Our models really show really great net interest margin, just where they are right now. I mean it shows greater if interest rates go up and it shows less if interest rates go down a little bit. But again, our customers have been very [indiscernible] if you look at the last, you followed us, Peter forever and you just take a look at the graph for the last 10 or 20 years, we've had increased earnings, increased earnings per share, increased assets, increased deposits every year until we get 2022, we started -- we've seen interest rates go up. You saw our net interest margin going down. And then we really got bond in '23 and '24 with net interest margin is going down to 2.75. And of course, now we've built it back up to 3.50 and we're going to 3.80. And our customers have stayed with us, and they really didn't have to, they could have gotten stuff better at some other places. So when I commented earlier that once we get up to the 3.7, I would like to see us bump our customers up a little bit. We still want to make good money, but I want to reward them for staying with us at the same time to and possibly start growing more organically in that phase.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveThing on the deposits, it's kind of hard to see when you see our balance sheet, our deposits have decreased. But if you kind of peel off, there's a public fund that have seasonality each time. So it goes down second and third quarter. But if you strip out the public fund, our core deposits have increased in the second quarter.
David Zalman
executiveYes. I mean I was extremely excited this time because last year at this time, this is usually one of our worst quarters with public funds being down. And...
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveAnd core to [indiscernible] down...
David Zalman
executive[indiscernible] tax payments. So I thought this was pretty good for usually a seasonally pretty tough deposit.
Operator
operatorAnd the next question comes from Michael Rose with Raymond James.
Michael Rose
analystJust wanted to start on the Stellar side, I think maybe Ray is there. Looks like the margin was up pretty meaningfully in the quarter. And it looks like maybe there might have been some restructuring securities balances were down. And just trying to better understand how much of that benefit is driving the NIM guide that also [indiscernible] layed out.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes, Michael, this is Ray. The -- so we picked up 9 basis points on the NIM. There was about a $30 million paydown of sub debt in there, but it's really driven by -- as Asylbek said, we booked $525 million plus we renewed another $600 or $700 million, so it's about $1.1 billion, $1.2 billion in the quarter at an average rate of $6.50 on the loan side. Deposit costs held in there, and that was really the driver -- most of the driver of that NIM expansion.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveAnd just to add on the sale of security, it happened at the end of the quarter, so there was no impact on the margin. So the margin that they have 9 basis point increase. That was a quarter increase on the margin.
Michael Rose
analystOkay. Very, very helpful. And then maybe just 1 follow-up. Just as it relates to the integration efforts and cost savings realizations of the 2 other deals, not stellar, but where do you stand with those? And I understand you gave the expense outlook, just trying to better understand the puts and takes.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveYes. On American and Partners Bank, we realized some of them, but most of the cost saving is going to come in after the system conversion, which we scheduled for September or November. But let's -- assuming that all the integration is done. We still expect from the Stellar -- I'm sorry, from American and Texas partner additional $20 million to $25 million cost savings coming in. So we should see the full impact of it in 2027...
Unknown Executive
executiveBefore tax or after tax?
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveYes, before tax, 2025 before tax. And on the stellar, we're still in line with what we announced on the premerger, how much of savings we're going to get. So we expect to get that savings. It might be a little bit pushed back on the timing of it because the system conversion doesn't happen until March of next year because of the timing of everything going on with 3 acquisitions. So the timing might , but the cost savings that we projected is still in line on Stellar as well.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from David Chiaverini with Jefferies.
David Chiaverini
analystSo you mentioned a couple of times about your focus on profitability. Can you remind us how you're thinking about ROTCE targets once the conversions are done and the cost savings are fully baked in looking out to 2027.
David Zalman
executiveWhat kind of targets I didn't catch that?
David Chiaverini
analystYour return on tangible common equity.
David Zalman
executiveWell, I mean we're right now, we're running -- even right now, we're running about 15% return on tangible capital.
Asylbek Osmonov
executive15.5%.
David Zalman
executiveI'm really hoping, again, you might have these numbers in your model, but I'm thinking if we hit the numbers we say we're going to hit, we should be hitting 17%, 18%.
Asylbek Osmonov
executive. Yes. I think initially, we're going to take a hit because of the conversion, but we build it up very quickly. So our process...
David Zalman
executive[indiscernible] about tangible capital, not return on tangible. Are you talking about return on tangible capital or were tangible capital is going to be...
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveI think return on tangible capital.
David Zalman
executiveThe return on tangible...
David Chiaverini
analystYes, you answered it. Yes.
David Zalman
executiveYes. Basically, they want to kind of know what -- do you have that in your model, but I mean, if we're hitting the numbers that we're saying, you can do the math, just add the extra money that he just told you on those cost savings of the $780 million and divide that by the share, you're going to get -- I think you're going to start hitting 17% to 18% return on tangible cap.
Unknown Executive
executiveThat's right. That's correct.
David Chiaverini
analystPerfect. And a follow-up to that on capital. With your buyback, you reduced it in the second quarter. How should we think about the buyback going forward?
David Zalman
executiveWhenever people are on [indiscernible], we have an opportunity to buy, we're going to buy. I mean we -- again, you can see the amount of money that we're making or proposed to make. Again, it's something -- there's no [ black ] long. So we have a run rate of $780 million right now. We have a lot of cost savings that's going to add to the bottom line. So I think our projections are $850 million to $880 million. We're paying how much in dividends $200 million. So the difference between that and what we're going to make is or what we are making is there's a lot of money. So we have a lot of gun powder to do something with, and we will. I mean if we see that there's real opportunities in the stock price falls and there's something out there in the market, we would definitely be buying our stock back. I mean, we're trading right now at 10x the next year to earnings or so. So we're pretty cheap.
Kevin Hanigan
executiveYes, it was muted in Q2 largely for blackout purposes. We just couldn't buy. We would have loved to buy a lot more, particularly certain periods in Q2, but we just -- we were blacked out.
Operator
operatorAnd the next question comes from Stephen Scouten with Piper Sandler.
Stephen Scouten
analystGoing back to the Stellar legacy results a little bit, it seems like with the $33 million in net income you mentioned, maybe that's a fair bit ahead of where consensus numbers have them at 1 point in time. I'm wondering if their results are kind of ahead of what you guys assumed -- when you first announced the deal, if it's going kind of tracking ahead of expectations and just if there are any material changes to the marks kind of at closing versus what you were expecting.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveYes. On the -- definitely running ahead what we projected. I think when we put together expectation was about $126 million for 2027 on Stellar net income, if you take the $33 million, we're talking about $130 million. So it is ahead of it. But on the market side of it, I think it's maybe a little bit higher than what we projected. But we're still working on it right now, and we don't have -- we have not finalized the markets yet. But I think the preliminary number coming in a little bit higher than what we projected on the loan marks.
Stephen Scouten
analystOkay. And you said $6 million to $8 million in expected accretion in the third quarter estimate.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveYes, that is including all.
Stephen Scouten
analystAnd then 1 question -- sorry.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveI just want to say, it's always -- it depends if there's some loan pays off with a discount or premium it could impact. But if you look at the model, it's $6 million to $8 million.
Stephen Scouten
analystKind of scheduled versus accelerated? Yes, that makes sense. And then in terms of the pro forma loan loss reserve, do you know where that will go to pro forma with the close for stellar. And then you guys have had a kind of a 0 provision for several years now. Do you think we'll start to see provision be more in line with loan growth moving forward? Or is there still some excess that can be worked out over time?
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveOn the seller one, we're still working on it, so we don't have any number, but I know it's going to be in addition to and maybe a pretty good healthy addition to that, but...
David Zalman
executiveThere's [ 420 ] right now.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveIncluding that unfunded Prosperity Bank.
David Zalman
executiveProsperity. And so your Stellar -- going with Stellar [indiscernible] is up to [ 600 ].
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveYes. We're still working on it. So we'll -- could this we'll give that more in the third quarter. But on the provision, it's kind of hard to say if we're going to provision or not, we just have to run the models and whatever model tells us if we need to provision we'll do provision if it tells that we don't, we're not going to take provisions.
David Zalman
executiveIt's hard provision when you get 3x the amount in allowance compared to your nonperforming. So I don't see that. If you're asking me personally, unless there's something that I will know in the loan portfolio is going to blow up. But we have 3x the amount of money that we have an allowance for loan losses compared to what we have in nonperforming right now. So I don't see in the next 12 months any provisioning, that's just me.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.
Jon Arfstrom
analystAsylbek can you just walk through the expense cadence again in terms of what you're expecting in the time line? I'm just trying to -- I know it's way out in the future, but just trying to get an understanding of what you think the run rate looks like when everything is fully converted.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveI'll give you the run rate. I gave $244 million to $250 million, that's including Stellar and have some savings that we pull forward from American Bank and Texas Partners Bank, but not all of it. So we expect as I mentioned earlier, from partners and American additional $20 million to $25 million cost savings going to be coming in. And for the Stellar, I think we expect -- that's all pretax numbers. So what I'm talking. And for the Stellar, we expect additional probable cost savings around $80 million to $85 million, and that is cost saves that we announced plus additional of new CDI. So in combination, is around $85 million additional cost saves on Stellar side which was all baked in and everything, of course, the timing, as I mentioned
David Zalman
executiveThat's pretax.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveThat's all pretax numbers.
David Zalman
executiveWe have got [ $85 million to $25 million ]. And you got the tax rate on that.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveYes. So between additional $100 million to $110 million.
David Zalman
executiveBut again, we ought to be conservative on that. I mean these are numbers, and we like to give you a little bit less than the case we do screw up or we don't make it. But I think we leave a little room in there.
Asylbek Osmonov
executiveAnd it's also -- I mean, we're kind of looking long term, right? We don't know what the inflation is the additional costs there might be in, but this is what we have right now, what we expect and that's what we're projecting. And we feel very comfortable about the savings.
David Zalman
executiveWe've looked at this up and down 2 and 3x because I didn't want to -- we didn't want to just put something out there that we didn't know if it was going to do it or not. But I mean, we feel pretty good with these numbers. I mean you guys have looked at.
Jon Arfstrom
analystYes. Okay. Yes, you guys have definitely delivered on that in the past. David, you kind of alluded to this, but with your asset size, not that $50 billion is a big deal, but you're a much larger bank. Anything else you need to do at your asset size that maybe you weren't thinking about or doing a year ago? You kind of referenced some hiring in products, but anything else to do that could cause some expense pressures? Or do you feel like you have what you need?
David Zalman
executiveNo. In fact, we needed to get to this size just to utilize the cost that we had, quite frankly. I mean, the way the regulators treated us, they were treating us like we were $50 billion and $100 billion. So we were geared up to be a bigger bank. And so this really just utilizes all the additional costs that we took on to do that really.
Operator
operatorThis concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Charlotte Rasche for any closing remarks.
Charlotte Rasche
executiveThank you. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for taking the time to participate in our call today. We appreciate your support of our company, and we will continue to work on building shareholder value.
Operator
operatorThe conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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