PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk (EXCL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to XL Axiata's Earnings Conference Call for the First Half of 2020. My name is Raff, and I will be your coordinator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. Now we would like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. Indar. Please proceed.

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the call. On behalf of the XL management team, I would like to thank all of you for taking the time to join us today. With us on the call today, we have Pak Adlan, our Chief Financial Officer; Pak David, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Pak Budi, our Deputy Chief Financial Officer. Ibu Dian sends her apologies as she is not able to join the call today. Now Pak Adlan will share the highlights of the first half of 2020, which will then be followed by the Q&A session. I will now hand the call over to Pak Adlan.

Thank you, Indar. Good afternoon, everyone. We are happy to report a good set of first half results despite tough competition and challenging economic environment due to COVID-19. Our revenue and EBITDA grew for the second consecutive quarters, and we have outperformed the industry in the first half of the year. Service revenue grew double digit, rising 10% year-on-year in the first half of 2020, driven by strong demand for data as many Indonesians continue to work and school from home. EBITDA rose 37% year-on-year as a result of revenue increase and cost efficiency, with EBITDA margin now above 50%. We continue to be in a net profit position, reflecting our focus on operational excellence with an emphasis on profitability and returns. However, competition continues to get tougher with all players now having some form of unlimited product in the market. Aggressive pricing is also seen across the smaller sachet data packets as operators try to win wallet share of customer, driving data yield down. Aggressive -- the aggressive competition is expected to continue in the second half of 2020 as demand starts to soften, especially in the mass low-end segment as a result of COVID-19 impacts, with many businesses struggling, job cuts and unemployment rising. As the economy -- Indonesian economy expected to contract in the second half of the year, the industry will also be negatively impacted. Distribution is key during this challenging environment, and I'm pleased to say that our digital channel and touch points have continued to grow double digits since last quarter. We will continue to accelerate the growth our -- of our digital channel in line with the changes in consumer behavior. This will allow us to have a better control and visibility of movement in the market at cheaper cost. Nevertheless, traditional distribution channel remains important. And as we -- and we are ensuring that all our retail outlets have enough physical stocks as we continue to support these channels during this tough time. The shift to digital has been one of our key transformation pillars. In line with this, I'm happy to announce that we have recently launched our new digital brand, Live.On. This will be a new area of growth for us in mobile. Live.On aims to give customer a fully digitalized telco experience by aspiring to be the digital brand that gives consumer power back over their digital lifestyle. It seeks to capture the upper tier of the digital-savvy users whose current needs and pain points are left unaddressed by the current offers. Our home business has had a strong start for -- to the year with increased demand for fixed broadband services. Despite not bundling any -- despite not building any new infrastructure, we have expanded our home passes this year to more than 300,000 through a partnership model to increase our footprint. We are now present in 10 cities across Indonesia, and we will continue expanding as we finalize a long-term plan for this business. For the second quarter of 2020, we have seen record increase for home connect, that demand for fiber to the home accelerated during this pandemic. To date, we have more than 50,000 home connect. Focus on business continuity and employee well-being remains our top priority. We have reopened our head office, but we have introduced flexibility for our employees of either working from office or continue working from home, with many are still working from home. We have seen increase in employee productivity as less traveling time has meant higher efficiency and better time management. Throughout this period, our crisis management team has ensured all operations run smoothly and that our business can continue as normal during this period. Our network rollout and upgrade continues to be on track as we -- as our early planning and procurement process has helped us secure all the materials needed to meet our network rollout plan in 2020. For us, we continue to roll out our network on schedule with our BTS count now above 139,000 with 4G presence in 456 cities across Indonesia, with almost 50,000 4G BTSs. We also continue to fiberize our network to manage the accelerated growth of data traffic and ensure our customer will continue to enjoy good network experience. We will also continue to expand and strengthen our network outside Java to further accelerate our revenue momentum that we are currently enjoying in this area. Our balance sheet is strong with net debt-to-EBITDA of below 1. We have no USD debt, and we have also secured committed facilities with the banks that we can tap at any time if we need additional capital. This is important today, given the uncertainties in the coming quarters as a result of the ongoing pandemic. Although our results are positive so far, the situation in the market remains tough with the impact from COVID-19 on rising unemployment and lower income for many Indonesians, coupled with the rising competition. This creates an unprecedented situation. And as a result, it is difficult to predict what the second half of the year will look like. Therefore, we are not able to provide you any guidance until we have better clarity on the situation. I'll pass the -- for -- to David to finish off the remaining speech.

Okay. Thank you, Pak Adlan. So finally, as per our announcement on Monday, Pak Adlan is leaving XL Axiata to continue his professional career within the Axiata Group as CEO of edotco. We are currently in the process of identifying his replacement and will make the necessary announcement when it has been finalized. Pak Adlan will be here for the next few months to help with the transition and handover process. We wish him all the best in his future endeavors and thank him for his many contributions to XL Axiata over the past 9 years. Thank you, and let us proceed to the Q&A question -- session.

[Operator Instructions] We shall end the conference call sharp at 2:00 p.m. Jakarta Time. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Arthur Pineda from Citigroup.

Two questions, as noted. Firstly, are you seeing any notable changes in the momentum following the unlimited plan launch from Telkomsel? Is this impacting your business outside of what you've seen in the second quarter? I'm just wondering if you need to react there. Second question I had is with regard to the growth trajectory that you're seeing. Are you able to provide any color in terms of how the growth momentum is trending within Java and outside of Java in revenue terms? And what the revenue is stood -- is now between those 2 regions?

Okay. So regarding the Telkomsel launching the unlimited, right? I have to say that we had already anticipated that Telkomsel will have a movement like this sooner or later. So answering to -- I think there were 2 questions on you. One is whether we have seen a change in our momentum, that's number one. And number two, whether we are thinking on reacting, right? So let me start for the second one. We are not thinking on reacting. So we are not thinking on cutting prices or entering in a price war. We are going to try to keep the market stable. Having said that, of course, you know that we have a regional pricing strategy that, depending on our competitive dynamics and our network capabilities in each of the regions, we keep adjusting prices. So that, we'll keep as a BAU business. So that's answering to the second. Answering to your first one, to be honest, our acquisition and our new subscriber acquisition, it's still in good momentum. So we are seeing still a strong momentum in that area during August.

So Arthur, on your second question, I think if you look at year-to-date, I think we are still growing in both island, right, in Java and ex Java, right? Of course, I think the growth that we are seeing in non-Java is still showing very strong momentum, yes. So I think that will probably continue. And I think -- we think that we're also gaining market share in those areas, right? However, I think situation in Java, for example, has been quite competitive. Nevertheless, we're seeing some growth, but we expect that this going to be the battlefront in the second half of the year. So I think that we have also seen that as a result of the pandemic as well that people, especially the mass low-end purchasing power impacted given the rising [ employment ] and all that. But we expect that the challenge in the second half will be more in Java. Momentum in ex Java has been good. And I think -- we think that it will continue in the second half.

Do you split out the revenue split on Java/non-Java?

Now I think ex Java is already accounting close to 25%.

Got it. Well, congratulations as well on the new move, Adlan. All the best.

Thank you. Thank you, Arthur.

And your next question comes from the line of Colin McCallum from Crédit Suisse.

And yes, congratulations, Adlan. Two questions for me. The first is, obviously, the second quarter numbers look pretty decent given the circumstances, but the price per megabyte did obviously decline quite sharply. Strategically speaking, are you worried that you've got decent growth short term out of that, but it might store up problems for the longer-term growth trajectory? There's the pace of that price per megabyte decline. That's the first question. Second question is noted on your comments on finalizing long-term plans on fixed broadband. Are you looking organic or inorganic for that following your experiments over the last year or 2? And if inorganic, have you firmed up anything on acquisition plans?

Thank you, Colin. So let me take the first question around the yield. So yes, you are right our yield or the price per megabyte has decreased in the second quarter. There are, I would say, 3 factors that has affected that, right? So the first one is that customers have moved themselves to packet with higher gigabytes but they, I would say, abuse -- or they use the packet, they sweep the packet more. So with packet with lower yield by definition, higher packet, they swept them more, right? So that's part of the yield decrease. There is a second part, second factor that is the CSR package that we offer our customers in such difficult situations. So as you know, we offer 2 gigabytes per day for certain applications and certain URLs for people to be able to work from home, study from home, et cetera. So that, I will say, is the second. And the third one, as you say, is also the unlimited product that we have in the market. Now when we look at our yield or our unlimited product, what we try to do always is try to optimize the share of wallet of our customers. And in order to do that, we also take a look to our competitive dynamics and the network capability on where we are playing with this, right? In this sense, one thing that I think is clear is that our ARPU has increased. Our ARPU has increased, so we are taking a bigger share of wallet from our customers. So we believe that this is the correct step, and we are in a sustainable path.

So Colin, on your second question, fixed broadband. I think you probably have seen, right, not only from our side as well, but in the market as well, the demand for fixed broadband has actually increased, right, with this current pandemic, yes. So I think looking at the situation and the new norm moving forward, I think the demand for the fixed broadband is going to be -- would be positive, I think maybe increasing growth expected as well, right? So of course, I think we're also seeing the same in our numbers. So I think from that perspective, I think we are looking at both, right, organic and inorganic, right? So I think there are challenges in both, but definitely, we see also big opportunity coming out with both, right? So to answer your question, yes, we are open to both, right, organic or inorganic, in terms of expanding our footprint on the fixed broadband.

And your next question comes from the line of Choong Chen Foong from CIMB.

Two questions from me. Firstly, just wanted to reconfirm, Adlan, and you mentioned that ex Java is already accounting for 25% of XL revenue for the second quarter. Is that correct? And in terms of the profitability for the ex-Java region as a whole, where are we now on that? And when do you see the region breaking even for XL? That's the first question. And second question, the EBITDA margin continued to improve very nicely into the second quarter. How do you see costs trending into the second half? Any major upward pressures or do you see even more savings coming through in the next half? Yes, those are my 2 questions.

Yes. So you are right, yes. So ex Java revenue is -- actually account for about 25% of total revenue today of our service revenue. So I think you see that -- generally, I think you see that we have actually started investing in ex Java starting from second half of 2016/2017. So I have to say that there are some of this cluster of some of these early investments have already started breaking even already, right? However, I think our investment in ex Java has actually continued right throughout this year. So as a region on its own, total region, I think we are still not breaking even yet. But I have to say that I -- we are quite happy to announce that some of the cluster that we have invested earlier in ex Java are already breaking even and showing good progress, right? And looking at the momentum that we are seeing today, the progress that we are making in ex Java is also ahead of plan, yes? So I think -- and we expect that this momentum will also continue, right, in the coming quarters. I will pass to Pak Budi to answer the second question.

So regarding the EBITDA, you're right. Our EBITDA was awesomely higher compared to the same period last year in the first half, increasing 37%. But please take note, within that increase, that includes our IFRS 16 adjustment, counting almost IDR 1 trillion. So if you remove that factor, our EBITDA still increase significantly, around 15%. So contributing by 2 factors: one, the revenue that, as you can see, increased by 7%; and also our ability to manage our cost better and then -- so I think the assets are better that's why we're able to get lower OpEx and resulting at the higher EBITDA, even after you remove the IFRS 16 impact.

Okay. And can I -- if I can just quickly follow-up on those 2 questions? And so back to the ex-Java side. If I can sort of pin you down on a time frame for breaking even for the whole region, I mean given the fact that the coverage in ex Java is already at a pretty high level, I presume the expansion there will not be as much as previously in terms of the coverage. When do you sort of think that we can break even as a whole for the ex-Java region? And on the EBITDA margin, just coming back to that, into the second half, any sort of key cost items where we expect to see any cost pressures on the upwards or even some savings?

Yes. So Foong, I think if you look at -- when we do our investment, typically in ex Java or within Java, we are actually looking at payback of around 3 to 4 years, right? So I think you see that maybe the bulk of the investment, on an average, you would say that it's around average that we have invested in ex Java in around 2019, '17, '18 and probably '19. So if the philosophy on a payback 3 to 4 years, if you take that into account of what we have invested before as well, right? So effectively, if the trajectory continues as what it is today and with the strong momentum, we could be looking at around another, at least 18 to 24 months.

Yes. Regarding the second half, we cannot give the guidance. But roughly, it's going to be the same big-ticket items that we are focusing on. One would be around the tower sale -- the tower rental and also fiber costs. Those are a few things that we really closely look at. Because this -- there are some tower contracts, they are coming due. As you know, we are always able to bring it down. Those contracts have been signed with higher extra cost per tower, we're going to sign with the new rates. So that will help us in terms of cost saving. The rest of costs, we do the same thing, closely monitor and then spend as needed. We make sure that every single dollar we spend are going to optimize in terms of contribution to the revenue.

Okay. Got it. And congrats, Adlan, on your promotion.

Thank you, Foong.

And your next question comes from the line of Kresna Hutabarat from Mandiri.

All the best, Pak Adlan, in your coming new role. I have 2 questions. My first question is on the revenue contribution from online channels. Can we get some color on the revenue contribution side from online channels today, say, in comparison to the same period last year? And how big do you think this revenue contribution can increase to? That's my first question. My second question is on your new product, Live.On. So basically, this is your challenger product, right, to Telkomsel's by.U or Smartfren Switch. But what's your rationale for actually launching such a fully digital product? Is it pricing or segmentation? And any color on that would be helpful.

Thank you, Kresna. So to your first question regarding the revenue from online channels, I cannot give you a number, but I guess that we all know that with all these pandemic, the traffic to certain outlets, even to XL centers, has been reduced, right? And the amount of data that we are selling now in our online digital channels or digital touch points, it's increasing significantly. I mean it's increasing double digit, something like that, already since March. So I think we are very happy with the result, and it's very promising. So that's in the first question. Regarding the second question, you are correct. So Live.On is our new digital product, in partnership with Circles, as a managed service. We believe that there is a demand in Indonesia for end-to-end digital products that are more customizable. And there is a segment that we were not tackling as of now, that is the higher-end digital savvy that we expect to attract with this new product proposition.

[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from the line of Sachin Mittal from DBS.

Yes. I have a couple of questions. Firstly, 2Q saw almost 15% sequential drop in data pricing. Is there a reason for the sequential data pricing drop to slow down to 15% in the quarters ahead? Any factor or should it further accelerate given the price war we have seen? That's question number one. Question number two is on -- Telkomsel lost 2.5 million customers in 2Q, but only 200,000 came to XL and bulk of them went to the other telcos. So I mean this is -- in the post SIM card registration exercise era, right? I mean I'm trying to understand what's really hampering those customers coming to XL network? Is it network quality? Is it the pricing? What really the issue there? And lastly, Telkomsel has launched unlimited plans in 65 cities. Could you give an idea of -- like these 65 cities comprised what percentage of customers for XL? Anything on that will be appreciated.

Okay. So thanks for the question, Sachin. The first one regarding the price per gigabyte, right? So you are right, it has decreased. I think, as I was explaining before, there are mainly 3 factors that has made this decrease. Factor number one is people have upgraded themselves to packets that are more expensive, bigger, but also lower price per megabyte. And they are sweeping them more than they were before. This is a trend that we have been seeing also. So people who buy the packet now use it much more. They complete it more than before. So I think there is a factor there. A second factor is our social responsibility program that we launched. We were giving 2 gigabytes free for every customer to access certain URLs and certain applications. So I think that was another area of this decrease. And the third one, yes, it's price adjustments. Price adjustments specifically -- well, in many things, but specifically our unlimited proposition, right? Or what we call the unlimited turbo. So this has also affected. Now a couple of things that I want to clarify around this. When we take a look to the price per gigabyte, we take a look to our network utilization and we take a look to how to improve our ARPU. So we always try to increase the revenue. And as you can see in the results as well, our ARPU has increased this quarter. So I think the strategy has been positive. Yes, the price per gigabyte has decreased, but the ARPU of the customers have increased. So that's number one. Number two, I would also like to explain a little bit how our -- what we call Unlimited Turbo is different from what you will find in the market. And there are 3 things that I believe that are worth mentioning, right? Our Unlimited gives unlimited access only to certain applications. For example, Facebook and Instagram, only to certain applications. It's not a true, whole unlimited like our competitors, number one. Number two, this access, this free access only happens after the main quota has been finished. That's also a big difference from our competitors. And the third one is like for the high-consumption applications like streaming applications, for example, YouTube. You need to proactively activate them in our digital touch point. So I think that these are 3 factors that make our proposition very, very sustainable. But as I was saying in the beginning, I think, for us, the most important is that the ARPU increased. So we control that in how we are able to increase the share of wallet of our customers. So that's in the first one.

Yes. So the second one here, you asked about Telkomsel losing 2.5 million subs, but what came in? So we cannot comment much on that. But one thing that I probably want to draw attention, right? The definition of customer between operator differs, right? So I think, obviously, I think we know that how we define our customer. And I think we believe that ours is probably the most conservative in terms of -- and reflecting the real situation in the market today, right? Therefore, whilst we are seeing momentum in terms of our acquisition at this point in time, but we really cannot comment where the rest of the other customers that telecom loss went to, right? But definitely, I think from our perspective, since we launched the unlimited in the month of March, I think our acquisition has been seeing good momentum. And I think it has even continued even up to today, right? So -- and I think -- and we are -- we probably would see a better trend for us, I think, moving forward with the current trends that we are seeing in our acquisition. The last one on Unlimited. Yes, Telkomsel has actually limited launch in 65 cities, yes. Obviously, we probably will not disclose what percentage of our customers are in these cities. But so far, as David mentioned earlier, I mean, we have not seen a much impact at this point in time. And I think we are probably do not have intent to react because we believe that our products are quite competitive in this area to be able to compete with this Telkomsel offering.

Okay. Just a follow-up on that. Now that rules to acquire SIM cards are more stricter than 3 years back or 2, 3 years back. So is it helping you? Is it helping the competition being more rational? Have you seen that?

Sorry, can you repeat? Yes, you were breaking up.

Yes. I -- now -- can you hear now?

Yes, yes, yes.

Hello, can you hear me?

Yes, yes. Go on. Go on.

Now the process of -- yes, the rules to acquire new SIM card is more strict than before, right? I mean you got -- there's a limit to the SIM card that people can have. So are you seeing that having some positive impact on the industry? And is that a factor that the competition will not intensify further due to the restrictions on SIM card?

Yes. So we believe that the impact has been positive. So the use-and-throw churners have reduced. The lifetime of our acquisitions have increased, which is -- I mean, it's positive. So I think the impact for sure has been positive. We hope that this continues like this and that all competitors comply with the given regulation.

And your next question comes from the line of Ranjan Sharma of JPMorgan.

Hello, hi, can you hear me?

Yes. Go ahead, Ranjan.

Hi, can you hear me?

Yes, Ranjan. Go on. Go on.

Okay. It's Ranjan Sharma from JPMorgan. A few questions from my side. Firstly, on the news flow that you have seen on Huawei and [indiscernible]

Ranjan, we lost you.

[indiscernible] The second question is -- yes?

Ranjan, we lost you just now. Ranjan, we didn't hear your first question, actually. We didn't hear. We lost you just now.

Yes. My question is on the impact of U.S. restrictions on Huawei on XL's current and future network build plans. The second question is on the sales and marketing. How much is the reduction sustainable due to the digital channels?

Yes. So on Huawei, I think if you look at our policy today, in all the layers of our network, we have actually 2-vendor policy. So in all these layers, we have -- we are not dependent on 1 vendor. And we always have 2 or more, yes. So that's the first thing, right? So as a group, we have actually made this assessment on the impact of Huawei. So I think the impact of this U.S. ban on the chip and all that will actually primarily impact Huawei on their smartphone business. However, in terms of the network product today, I think they are not -- they do not have much reliance, for example, to the U.S. chips or product and all that, right? So that assurance we actually got from Huawei. Yes. Nevertheless, I think you don't know where this battle is going to go. Maybe now it's about chip ban. Later, if they ban everybody to integrate with Huawei and all that. So we are assessing that situation today. And I think, of course, in all these cases, for example, we have actually simulate scenarios on how we are going to react, right? But at this point in time, at least from the country perspective, Indonesia, today, as an industry, you would say that 60%, 70% of the industry rely on Huawei. Yes, so the likelihood of the country banning Huawei at this point in time, I would say, it's not significant. But nevertheless, I think we are preparing plans, for example, how -- what we do, for example, in times when -- for example, those situation or scenarios emerge. Yes, so…

Regarding the second one, about -- if I understood properly, marketing assets, the digital transformation, right, the digital improvement. So regarding marketing, since the pandemic started, we have moved big part of our budget from more traditional channels to the digital channels. So now most of our efforts are in the retail channel, all the market in that we are doing, right? So that's number one. Number two, regarding the channel or how we are selling. Again, I cannot disclose the numbers, but what I can disclose is that our digital touch points are growing at double digits. So it's a very healthy growth and ahead of expectations as well. We are very happy with that.

Yes. And just to add to what -- a bit comment about our sales and marketing expense. As you can see, our marketing -- sales and marketing expense has been decreased year-on-year, 11%. Q-on-Q, 4%. That's mainly driven what -- because of what David just explained, that we're shifting more towards digital. Just to add.

And your next question comes from the line of Prem Jearajasingam from Macquarie.

Prem Jearajasingam from Macquarie here. Two questions from me. First of all, I know a lot of time has been spent talking about data yields in Indonesia. But I suppose the bigger question for me really is we're still comparing Indonesian data traffic to some of the other markets like Malaysia and Thailand. Data traffic is still half of what you're seeing in these 2 countries. So I suppose the key is, can our networks -- the current networks that we have, can we handle 15, 16 gigabytes of data without a substantial increase in CapEx, because I think that's where Telkomsel is really going. They've spent the CapEx, and now they're just turning on the pipes. So how -- what do you think is happening on this front? And can we afford for data to jump towards 15, 16 gigabytes? That's one. Secondly, consolidation in the market. I was quite interested in your comments around inorganic and organic growth on the fixed side of things. Have we also watered down our expectations of consolidation within -- or our part -- our role in consolidation of the wireless market? And are we now focusing more on the fixed side? Or is that wireless consolidation still something that we want to partake in?

Okay. Thank you, Prem. So first thing is on data yields. So if you look at today in terms of 4G subs, right? I think average usage for our 4G subs today is probably around 12 gig, yes, so -- per month, right? So essentially, if you compare it to other markets, it's probably slightly lower. But definitely, I think if you look at the rate are -- the rate of usage per sub is actually accelerating. So next question is, can our network cope with this data increase? I think the -- 2 parts here, right? So we have actually continued to build not just coverage, but also capacity -- increasing capacity of our network. So if you look at where we are for 4G capacity today, utilization is still between -- at around 45%, right? So there's still ample room for us to take on headroom -- for example, for us to take on the increase in data traffic moving forward. And secondly as well, not just at the access side. We are also fiberizing all our towers, at least 1 hop to fiber, right? So -- and I think where we are today, in the next 1 or 2 years, you would say that we would actually achieve 100% of our site with 1 hop to fiber, right? So -- and typically, that's one of the critical points or the bottleneck that you see, right, the transport layer. And we are actually investing in both at this point in time. Yes. No doubt that Telkomsel building -- putting more money, investment in the network side. But bear in mind, they also have carrying more traffic than us today, right? So relative to our growth to the traffic that we have today, I think -- we think we should be able to take on more traffic increase that, based on our forecast, at least in the next 1 or 2 years, right? So -- but we are also continuously building as well, right, as we speak today, right? So secondly, on consolidation. So yes, I think if you look at the situation today, right, with the pandemic, with a slowdown in economy with, I think, consumer retail demand are also softening as well, especially in the low-end segment, I think you would expect that, I think, that would probably put pressure on operators to probably accelerate the consolidation process. I mean at least this is our internal assessment. So our view has not changed on this, and I think it's in line with our shareholders as well, we are fully in support of in-country consolidation because -- and we are willing to play a part on that. Even if we are not -- I think we are also fully supportive because any consolidation would probably good for the industry. Having said that, I think whilst you know the challenges in consolidation today, right? And I think that, that's one of the areas that probably need to be addressed first, especially on the regulation and the retention of spectrum, right? So yes, I think we was -- in-country consolidation on the mobile side. At the same time as well, we also see opportunity in how the fixed-fiber-to-the-home is also growing as well and it is becoming a more and more interesting proposition. As we can see as well, some of the investment that we have put on fiber -- on home -- on fiber-to-the-home are actually showing a great progress. And I think lately is also we are seeing a record growth as well, right? So it's -- it is interesting. And hence, that's why we are pretty open in terms of how we want to -- our plan to move forward, be it organic or inorganic, or be it in mobile or even the fixed side.

And your next question comes from the line of Sebastian Tobing from Omega (sic) [ Trimegah ]

First of all, congratulations, guys, for the good results in the middle of the pandemic. And congrats, Adlan, for your next position. Now if you look at the competition, I mean, we've always -- there's always competition dynamics between the big 3. But you see how -- I mean Smartfren did, I mean, pretty good revenue growth in the past few quarters. So is this something that you start worrying about Smartfren and 3 gaining some revenue market share? Or is it maybe just in the fringes? Maybe if you can provide a little bit of color on that. And you mentioned earlier about looking at ARPU rather than simply data yield price. Now if you look ahead more, over the next 3 years perhaps, given that I think in terms of the number of subscribers penetration among the big 3 telecoms is already quite high, so the revenue growth will be driven more by ARPU. So what sort of -- how much higher could the ARPU be, I mean, ideally, you think in the next 3 years, yes? And thirdly, I mean, I know XL has been talking about fiberization. So could you share a bit on how that -- the progress of that fiberization, i.e., of all your BTSs? How many -- or what sort of percentage is already fiberized?

Okay. So thank you, Tobing. Regarding your first question, Smartfren and 3 increase in revenue, right? And increase in penetration and whether it's worrying. As you can imagine, everything that is taking part of our -- what would be our market share is worrying for us. So of course, we worry about all of our competition and how they are doing, right? So we monitor very closely each of the cities and each of the competitors in each of the cities and every product of the competitor in each of the cities. So yes, it's something that worries us, and we keep monitoring and part of our regional pricing comes exactly from there, right? So that's the first question. To the second one, you were asking that, yes, the yield, traditionally, I think, historically, has always -- has come down, right? The ARPUs have increased. This time it's good. So what we meant is that, yes, it is something that is important, but the yield that you see, it's an average. It's an average of different yields in different cities. And it's an average different yields in different cities where we have different network capacity, different market share, different competitive dynamics. So that is what we try to optimize. Now having said that, I'm sure that you have been also following the market for a few years, right, and you can see that there are moments where competition is tighter and yields go -- accelerates in one direction then can be some kind of recovery. So you know that this is a market where many players are in there and the interactions, it was difficult to set up how the next few years will look like. So that's why, for me, difficult to say how I envision an ARPU in 3 years from now, right? It will depend pretty much on how the competitive dynamics move forward. But again, I want to make sure that we understand that for us, yes, the yield is important, but it's an average. It's an average of different cities with different market shares with different network capacities. And that's how we try to optimize our revenue.

So on your last question on fiberization. So I think our topology architecture on the transport, I think we are looking to fiberize at least 1 hop to fiber, right? So that means that 50% of our sites will actually be fiberized essentially, right? And so -- and where we are today, we have been -- we have started this process for the last 2, 2.5 years. Where we are today, we are probably at around 60% progress, right? And we think that within the next 12, 24 months, I think we probably would achieve the level that we are aiming for, yes, 1 hop to fiber for all our sites.

And your next question comes from the line of Niko Margaronis from Danareksa Sekuritas.

Yes. This is Niko from Danareksa. I would like to ask question on the fixed broadband. You mentioned earlier in your opening statement that you have about 300,000 home passes right now. May I ask what is the infrastructure behind it? I mean, the last mile, how much percent is on fiber? And is there any other technology that you use, maybe fixed wireless? Or is it cellular? Yes, that's my first question. Secondly, you mentioned also that as part of -- that the yield came down significantly, partly also because of the social responsibility. Is that something that may happen again in the second half? I noticed that right now that you're pushing products like conferencing and educational products. Is there a possibility that this might be reversed in the second half?

So Niko, so your first question on fixed. When I talk about the 300,000 home passes, those are all fiber, right? The technology, again, is fiber. So -- because that's fiber-to-the-home, right? So on the second question?

Yes. So regarding the yield and the social responsibility. So as you say, we have already what we believe to be very competitive packets, in order to either study from home or work from home. So they include some teleconferencing, et cetera. So we believe that they are already very good. I don't know whether the prices will change for those packet, but we believe that the way they are today are already competitive enough and are already interesting enough for anyone who can -- who have to use them either at home for study or for work.

And I think on the 2 gig free, we are no longer offering it anymore. I think the offer has actually lapsed up to June -- end of June.

Okay. Okay. That's what I was asking, basically. Is this -- can this be implemented again? I mean, is there such thoughts from -- maybe from the government to push this again for because spending power is coming down?

Currently, there is no any idea of going in that direction. So as Pak Adlan mentioned, we -- June was the last month with the social responsibility. And currently, we have a product for study from home and work from home that we believe that are already good enough.

Okay. Okay. And sorry, Pak Adlan, may I ask you on the 300,000 home passes, what is the penetration currently?

It's slightly below 20%. So it's about -- to be exact, it's 18%.

All right. Good luck on your new post, Pak. All the best.

Thank you. Thank you.

And your last question comes from the line of Piyush Choudhary from HSBC.

Yes. Two questions. Firstly, could you update us if there is any development on spectrum auctions likelihood and any time lines over there? Secondly, on your comment in terms of decrease in spending power in lower end, could you provide some color? Are you seeing that more in Java or it's more ex Java? And any kind of geographical color could be helpful.

Yes. So I think spectrum auction, I think, is probably still in discussion, right, so both in terms of time line and in terms of the mechanics, how it's going to be done, right? But I think we're looking at that discussion. There is a possibility that, that may happen in Q4 this year. But again, I think the method and all that is still being discussed at this point in time. So that much that we know. Obviously, I think we can provide a little bit more color when we have more visibility in terms of where the spectrum auction is heading, right? So spending power, I would say, it cuts across the board. I don't think there is much. Obviously, I think in the case of Jakarta, for example, we are probably seeing a lot more -- people are -- is taking -- job cut is happening at this current stage. But obviously, I think that would also be the same in the other regional market as well, right? So at this point in time, there is no specific geography that will say that the spending power is actually a bit less. However, I think the momentum for us -- I think the momentum, we think that the impact is probably less for us at ex Java because we're also seeing good growth in terms of our acquisition and all that as well. So if you were to tie the spending power to probably in terms of revenue and all that, we're still seeing good momentum in ex Java, given that we are probably doing pretty well in terms of our acquisition. But generally, if you talk about the weakening softening of purchasing power, I think it cuts across the entire region.

Sure. And if I may follow-up on spectrum auction. Is the bands decided, which bands are going to be auctioned and how much quantum?

It's the 2,300. That's probably going to this thing. So yes, it's going to be 30 megahertz.

Okay. And congratulations, Pak Adlan, on your new role. Good luck.

Thank you, Piyush.

Thank you so much. There are no further questions at this time. I'll give it back to the management for the closing remarks.

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for your participation in today's call. As always, get back to us if you need further information. Please stay safe, stay healthy, and we'll speak to you next quarter. Thank you.

That concludes today's conference call. All lines may disconnect now.