PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (PTCT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

May 16, 2024

NASDAQ US Health Care conference_presentation 33 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#1

[Audio Gap] Health Care Conference. I'm Tazeen Ahmad. I am one of the senior SMID biotech analysts at the bank. It is my pleasure to have our next presenting company on stage with me, PTC Therapeutics. I've got several members from the management team. Specifically sitting next to me are Matthew Klein, who is Chief Executive Officer; Pierre Gravier, who is Chief Financial Officer; as well as Kylie O'Keefe, who is Chief Commercial Officer. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for coming over from New Jersey.

Matthew Klein

executive
#2

Tazeen, thank you. Great to be here.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#3

So maybe, Matt, you can, for the folks who may not be as familiar with PTC, just give us an overview of the company, sort of the main platform and some of the recent events that have occurred. And then we can go into some more detail around those.

Matthew Klein

executive
#4

Terrific. For those of you who don't know PTC, we are a global bio-pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes therapies for patients with rare disorders. We have a robust commercial portfolio with 6 products, 5 of which we market ourselves all over the world for a number of different rare diseases, and the sixth product is commercialized by Roche from which we derive collaboration and royalty revenue. We have a robust R&D portfolio with programs in a number of different rare disorders, particularly with focus on neurology and metabolic disease. And we have 2 scientific platforms, one in splicing, being that we are the pioneers of small molecule splicing; and ferroptosis, where we're also pioneering therapies there. We're looking forward to a very exciting year. We came into 2024 after making a number of changes to strengthen the company. We went through exercises to focus our R&D portfolio as well as to right-size the company so that we could reduce our operating expenses and put the company on a trajectory to cash flow breakeven. We, recently in Q1 earnings, reported an excellent revenue performance, beating consensus by over 20% and are also making significant progress on a number of regulatory submissions this year. We're on schedule to submit for-approval applications to the FDA, including one for our PKU program, which we've described as easily being $1 billion-plus peak revenue opportunity. We also have 2 important data readouts scheduled for this year, one for our Huntington's disease program, which is regarded as the leading Huntington's disease program right now. And again, we're expecting data from that in the second quarter. And in the fourth quarter, we're expecting top line results from our ALS trial, which is a registration-directed study of our drug, utreloxastat for ALS. So it's really shaping up to be an exciting year with a number of important milestones, all of which are on schedule.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#5

Okay. Perfect. Yes, there's a lot going on. And one of the topics that every investor, I think, is interested in hearing more about is Translarna, which was your first approved drug. It's been approved in Europe now for multiple years. And based on a review that occurred, I can't even remember how many months ago, the most recent update was that CHMP had recommended removing the product from the market because of the results of a confirmatory study that occurred. I think everybody who follows PTC had maybe assumption that, that was the end of the story, but it appears it is not. The drug is still on the market. And maybe, Matt, can you just give us a quick summary of the saga that we all know as Translarna? Because I think it's important because it's meaningful revenue that people were assuming would go away, which if it doesn't go away, does have a meaningful impact for the company.

Matthew Klein

executive
#6

Absolutely. And quite frankly, it already has in many ways. And so as you pointed out, Tazeen, Translarna was the first ever approved therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. It received conditional marketing authorization in Europe in 2014, subject to confirmatory studies, the most recent of which was Study 041, which while demonstrated statistical significance on all key endpoints in the overall ITT population, did not reach significance in the prespecified primary subpopulation. So it is very, say, unique situation, which many of the -- what I'm going to discuss with Translarna is also unique, but it was a unique situation in which a smaller subgroup didn't achieve significance, but the overall population did. And of course, the study also demonstrated, as expected, that Translarna continues to be safe and well tolerated. The CHMP took a very strict view and said that since this was a confirmatory study and a primary analysis population, while being just a subgroup of the overall enrolled population, didn't meet significance, then we did not sufficiently confirm benefit and issued a negative opinion. That negative opinion was issued following a reexamination in January. And what typically happens is when the CHMP issues an opinion, then it only becomes official once the Central European Commission adopts it. And that typically happens within 67 days of that opinion being issued. So as you pointed out, most expected that coming end of the first quarter, the product would be withdrawn for the market. And this would have been the first time that a product that was safe and well tolerated was withdrawn. Went to the European Commission. And what we do know is that procedure to remove the drug was stopped. There was at least one country that voiced objection, which stops the procedure. And then a meeting of the Standing Committee of the European Commission is convened to discuss the matter. We know that, that meeting was held the week of April 27. We have not heard anything further. So what does that mean? That means the drug remains on the market. The opinion of the CHMP was not adopted thus far. We know that there was a tremendous outpouring of support to keep the drug on the market from patients and physicians all over Europe. And so this, very well, may be a situation where you have patients and physicians saying, look, here's a drug that's safe, there's clear evidence of benefit. The review at CHMP may have been overly conservative, particularly given the unmet need for patients with nonsense mutation DMD in Europe. And we are -- await to hear what happens next. But for us, it's really been business as usual. We were commercializing the drug in Europe and in many places all over the world. Physicians continue to prescribe it. Patients continue to want it, and we continue to generate revenue.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#7

Is there a situation where countries can order product and keep inventory in the event that something occurs officially where it says after this day, you can no longer order more product or anything like that?

Matthew Klein

executive
#8

Yes. So we were preparing different approaches to keeping the drug available by leveraging individual country processes, whether those be named patients or other access pathways. That still remains in the background. But of course, the benefit of where we are right now is just continue to commercialize as if it was last year. So none of that has changed. So we do have that as a backup change -- backup plan should it come to pass that this opinion gets adopted and the drug is withdrawn.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#9

Can you give us a sense of what level of penetration you have in Europe market was?

Matthew Klein

executive
#10

Yes, sure. Kylie, do you want to talk about the dynamic?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#11

Yes. Look, absolutely. I think one of the things we've talked a lot about, Tazeen, is our approach with Translarna preceding the situation was Europe was definitely our first market, right? So we started in Europe, and we've been able to ensure across many of our European markets to have pretty deep penetration. What we then looked at is that, okay, to grow the business substantially, we need to continue geographic expansion. So we looked at a number of markets across the world that we started to geographically expand into. And I would say these have been probably our bigger growth driver markets, whereas Europe has been a bit more stable in that regard. We've still talked about definitely finding new patients in Europe, and we've still continued to penetrate. We're not at max penetration. We are at high penetration, but we're not at max penetration. So we still continue to find new patients in Europe. We still continue to put new patients on drug. It's just where we see larger growth rates in some of these earlier markets that we've started to geographically expand into.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#12

Okay. And during the 10 years or so that this drug has been on the market, how has price impacted uptake, if at all?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#13

Not at all. I think one of the things that traditionally is believed, especially in Europe, that over time, as you see a product enter the market at a certain price point, over time, that tends to degrade. One of the things that we've been able to do across the board in all of our markets is hold a very tight pricing corridor. And this has been something that we've been heavily focused on to balance the business. And I think it's been something the team has done an incredible job of managing.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#14

Okay. And how have you managed the need for infrastructure in terms of marketing and sales?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#15

So one of the things we talked about as this situation started to unfold is the fact that we have a PKU launch just around the corner. And so what we had always intended to do, and we talked about this, was we built infrastructure around the world that was not only fit for delivering and executing on the business that we have today but also being ready for tomorrow's business. And tomorrow at the time was PKU, which is now today. And so we did not touch the infrastructure. We've kept it whole. We've kept it in place. And this has obviously been a huge benefit as this situation has continued. And we -- as Matt said, we have Translarna remaining on the market, and we don't see a situation changing anytime soon. So from that perspective, with regards to that, the infrastructure is focused on ensuring that we meet the needs of patients and physicians for Translarna as well as preparing for PKU.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#16

Okay. So Matt, does the European Union have any obligation to tell you, the company, about what's going on at a certain point?

Matthew Klein

executive
#17

We assume that we will be -- and we expect we'll be notified once there is a clear path. Now what has to happen, the way it works in Europe is the CHMP, which is part of the European Medicines Agency, is responsible for the scientific and technical evaluation of a product. They do that evaluation. They then send that opinion over to the central body, the European Commission, that then makes a decision on that to adopt it or not. So you can imagine in this period, it's entirely possible that there's ongoing discussions between the 2 bodies about next steps and such. And we expect that once there's clarity, we'll hear. I think for us, we did a lot of work last fall and winter to prepare for the withdrawal of the drug. We strengthened our balance sheet. Hence, we're in a strong position to build forward all of our other programs this year. So this is really a situation where it's pure upside where we had set the company up for success based on what's coming with PKU, based on HD, based on all of our other programs and had the cash to execute on all of those. And now we're in a situation where something we didn't expect is occurring, but it's upside, which is a great situation to be in.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#18

So presumably, you've tried to figure out the different scenarios of outcomes here through consultants or experts who know the European rule system. Is there any kind of outline you could provide for us on what could happen? I mean the obvious is they decide to keep it on the market as is or pull it from the market. But is there in between scenarios?

Matthew Klein

executive
#19

Certainly. Look, I don't think there's any expert here who can weigh in because we're in a bit of an unprecedented situation. The only precedent of which we're aware where there was a CHMP opinion that the European Commission did not adopt is the case of Glybera in 2012, which was the gene therapy being developed for lipoprotein lipase deficiency. And what happened at that point was there was a negative opinion. It went to the European Commission. They did not adopt the opinion. It went back to the CHMP, and 6 months later, the CHMP made -- changed their opinion to positive, which was adopted then by the European Commission. So I think we have the range of options. I mean certainly, the commission could decide we're just going to adopt a negative opinion and it goes into effect. But what could also happen is it could go back to CHMP. They can either look at changing the opinion to positive. If they could say, look, this was a conditional authorization, we'll maintain that subject to additional work being done. And you can imagine as that -- those discussions happen, that even getting to that point could unfold over several months.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#20

Could they ask you to do yet another confirmatory study?

Matthew Klein

executive
#21

They could. And we will obviously welcome any opportunity to keep the drug on the market and make it available to boys in Europe.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#22

Okay. So if that continues to be business as usual, is there any change to your expectations for expenses this year though?

Matthew Klein

executive
#23

No change for expenses. As Kylie said, the infrastructure is the infrastructure. And the important point is no change for expenses to maintain Translarna, and we weren't expecting any change to expenses to prepare for the PKU launch. So that was all set.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#24

Okay. So that's Europe. Let's talk about the U.S. and where you are with your application.

Matthew Klein

executive
#25

Yes, absolutely. As you're well aware, it's been a long history. And I know a lot of people are saying, I wouldn't bet on this one because it's such a long history. But I think a lot has changed. I think first of all, and I believe this is also supported by what's going on in Europe, Study 041 provides a very strong data set of efficacy in an overall ITT population, which is something that really hasn't been seen for a genetically directed therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Having significance on walk test, North Star test, Timed Function test, all of those is really, really important if the therapy is safe. We also have the STRIDE registry, which is an important source of confirmatory evidence showing long-term benefit in terms of delay of time to loss of ambulation. You know very well the long history between FDA and PTC on Translarna. And I think we can clearly say that in our recent discussions, there's really been a reset in the relationship. I think the players have changed on both sides, and I think I'm happy that we've had very collaborative, productive discussions with the agency about how we can use these data to support a resubmission. And we made it very clear to the agency that we are not going to go down this path, if there's an RTF waiting for us. And what feedback we got from our pre-submission meeting was that if there's any questions left, they'd be a matter of review, which is what we needed to hear to move forward with the submission. We've also talked about just even looking at [ Cedars' ] recent review of givinostat and looking at how they looked at the data for givinostat in terms of some of the analyses their statisticians did at FDA. And those were all things they asked from us prior to advising us on the submission and doing all those analyses also -- they all support the robustness of our finding of significant benefit across these endpoints. And also any -- some of the issues that the review teams have previously raised around real-world evidence, we're able to easily satisfy. So while there is a long history here and it makes it difficult for anyone to be too bullish on the therapy getting approved by FDA, I think we're in a strong position to provide a dossier that has a persuasive evidence of benefit and necessary confirmatory evidence. And the FDA has demonstrated to us their openness to review this package.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#26

Which committee would be reviewing?

Matthew Klein

executive
#27

This is in neurology.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#28

And of the people that PTC would have interacted with over the last several years, how many of them are the same?

Matthew Klein

executive
#29

So as you know, Billy Dunn, who oversaw the division, has left. And Teresa Buracchio is now the Head of the Division of Neurology Products. And with Teresa, she's been in all of these meetings where we've had these discussions. And the review team's obviously changed and things change over time.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#30

Okay. So if I'm understanding you correctly, you don't think you would get an RTF, so you're going to go ahead and apply. And assuming that you don't get an RTF, they will accept the application. What are your chances, do you think, of getting a priority review?

Matthew Klein

executive
#31

So since it's an NDA resubmission, technically, it follows a priority review timeline. So there's 2 months to accept the filing and then it should be 6 months from there. So we're planning to resubmit the NDA midyear. So we would expect then, according to that timeline, to have an outcome in the first quarter of '25.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#32

Okay. And do you think an AdCom would be likely?

Matthew Klein

executive
#33

We don't know. We'll have to see what they decide. We welcome whatever comes in the review process.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#34

And just remind us, what's new in the package that you would be submitting versus packages that they've seen before?

Matthew Klein

executive
#35

Study 041. I think being able to have a study in 359 boys that in the ITT population that was well controlled, standard steroid regimen, well stratified and having p-values less than 0.05 on all of the key endpoints is, quite frankly, something they've never seen in a DMD product before. I think the safety of the product has always been there. And then they've never seen data from STRIDE because STRIDE didn't start until after the last submission. So to be able to provide real-world evidence on over 280 boys over the course of 5 years of data collection and having a robust propensity match comparator, natural history population against whom we showed that we slow loss of ambulation by 3.5 years, slow loss of pulmonary function by over 1.5 years, is again something they've never seen in DMD and something the FDA has increasingly said are things that they want to see to try to understand what the benefits over the long term could be in horrific diseases like DMD.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#36

Okay. I asked about the AdCom because I'm curious. You did mention that for Europe, for example, there was a long -- there was a strong advocacy coming from physicians as well as parents of patients. We do know that there is, in general, a strong advocacy for DMD in the U.S. vis-a-vis parents of these boys. Why wouldn't an AdCom be a good opportunity for these parents to voice to FDA? Why it would be important presumably to have access to this drug?

Matthew Klein

executive
#37

I think it would be an excellent opportunity. We're aware that over the years, even as recently as this past year, parents of children with nonsense mutation have let their voice be heard to FDA even now. I think if you think about how long we've been looking and we've been studying this drug, we have over 150 boys in the United States who have been on Translarna for 10 years or more and many more who want to get on the drug. And so we welcome any and all opportunities to be able to showcase these data and to be able to let the voice of the patient community be heard. So for us, if there's an AdCom, terrific. If there's not, fine. We're confident in the package and look forward to any opportunity we need to take to push this forward.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#38

Okay. And is the company engaging right now with parents to let them know that this is what's happening?

Matthew Klein

executive
#39

We established the field of DMD drug development. Our connections with the patient community go back to the beginning. So we are very well connected with the patient groups. We have always been -- the early history of DMD is the history of PTC, and a lot of the early history of PTC is the history of DMD. So they are very engaged with us. We pride ourselves on those relationships that we build with the community. Of course, we also have commercialized Emflaza over the past several years, which continue to strengthen our ties with the patient community.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#40

Okay. So maybe let's talk about Emflaza. So you recently lost exclusivity. But on your earnings call, your most recent earnings call, you've talked about not really experiencing impact from that yet. Is that a temporary situation? Or do you expect that to continue? And what strategies has PTC undertaken in order to maintain share?

Matthew Klein

executive
#41

Kylie, do you want to talk a bit about that?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#42

Yes, absolutely. So as we've talked about, obviously, loss of exclusivity wasn't a surprise to us. We knew it was coming. And so what we wanted to do was make sure that we built a robust plan to be able to do what we can to protect the business. So we put a number of different strategies in place. We focused on contracting with targeted payers. We focused on contracting and putting initiatives in place with specialty pharmacies, ensuring that we have as robust as possible patient support programs. We have a wonderful PTC Cares team that spend a lot of time with these DMD patients, making sure they're engaging with physicians, insurance companies and limiting the burden on these patients and caregivers. We have a disposition team that's engaging with the physicians and making sure that the understanding of the value of Emflaza exists, brand loyalty exists and everything around that. So it's sort of a multi-pillar approach to be able to protect the business. So fast forward, the other thing we also talked about is rare disease is quite unique when it comes to loss of exclusivity, and DMD is no difference there. Particularly, there is a high number of Medicaid patients. So when generics tend to enter the marketplace at that 20% to 30% discount to brand, that margin is eaten up very quickly when you lose $0 copay, when you lose access to the PTC Cares team or to any Cares team, when you lose access to specialty pharmacy, you lose access to patient support programs and everything associated. And so with just one generic entering the market, we had hoped, believed that they would enter around that discount rate, and they did. They entered around the 20%. And so what we've seen is that brand loyalty remains. Even with a 20% discount, they still want to remain on Emflaza. And so these programs we've seen have had success. Looking forward, I think the team is working incredibly hard to keep each patient on brand, each patient on Emflaza. And I think where you might start to see a shift in the situation is more generics entering the marketplace because then you start to see deeper discounts occur, and it becomes a little bit harder to maintain patients on branded product, but the team is going to continue to work exceptionally hard to do that. And so far, we've only seen one.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#43

So when you say you're contracting, part of that contracting, I'm assuming, is agreeing on a certain price point to keep that -- to keep Emflaza the preferred option.

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#44

So not so much of a price point but more of a discount point.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#45

A discount point?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#46

Yes, right.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#47

And so you're saying that with one generic competitor, you've been able to maneuver around that pretty successfully. But there's a potential that as more generics come that becomes more challenging to do over time?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#48

Potentially, yes. And we'll continue to look at it. We still have some additional levers in place that we can pull if more generics enter, and we can look at that business. But where we stand today, we've got the right measures in place.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#49

Okay. There's a company called Catalyst Pharma, which has its own steroid branded that got approved. Have you heard anything from your field force about any impact from that?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#50

Limited at this point. I think it's very early days, so it's hard to comment too much. I think there's a couple of factors at play here. And from what we've heard from physicians, if you look at their label and the data package in their label, it's based on a study in 4- to 7-year-olds over 26 weeks. I think Emflaza has one of most extensive data packages in DMD outside, of course, Translarna. And from that perspective, it has 10 years of real-world evidence. There's long-term studies. It looks at a number of different motor benefits, safety benefits across the board. We also have the fact that Emflaza is in the AAN guidelines. We have the robust Cares program we just talked about. So I think the real-world experience, the fact the team's been in the field for over 5 years building those relationships, establishing themselves, we haven't seen a major impact at this point, particularly with -- if you look at the product profile, there's no major benefit over Emflaza. And so from that perspective, early days, but we've not seen much.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#51

Okay. That's good to know. So maybe let's go in a few minutes we have left, touch upon PKU because that's an area that you guys have been spending a lot of time preparing for. So maybe can you just give us an overview of the PKU program, where it stands? And then we can talk about your expectations for the upcoming launch.

Matthew Klein

executive
#52

Yes. So incredibly excited about the PKU program. Our drug, sepiapterin, had incredibly strong data from the Phase III trial, where we had over 60% reduction in phenylalanine levels in all patients, a 69% reduction in the more severe classical patients. We were able to show that in patients who have been previously treated with Kuvan that we had significantly greater, almost 50% greater reduction in phenylalanine levels with our drug compared to Kuvan, strong safety profile. And then the data we're collecting now in the long-term extension study, including the Phe Tolerance program, we're showing that patients are able to liberalize their diet. We have now over 60% of the patients who are going through that protocol are able to have protein intake above what would be recommended for you and I and still maintain control of phenylalanine levels. And that's really the holy grail for PKU patients. So this has generated a tremendous amount of interest across patients, across physicians, across the world. It's a population of over 58,000 patients, the vast majority of which, probably close to 90% of which, are not served by current therapy. So it's really a very large unmet medical need. We have submitted the European Marketing authorization in March. We expect to get validation and the procedure to start for the approval review in the next week or so. We expect to submit the NDA no later than the third quarter. And we had mentioned we're just waiting to complete a mouse study, which will be done in June, and look to submit the package shortly after that. So we are incredibly excited about this program, right? This will be our first global launch as we're also preparing submissions for Japan and Brazil this year, and our teams are ready and waiting. And I'll let Kylie talk a little bit about the specifics of how we're thinking about the launch plan.

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#53

Yes, absolutely. So one of the things we've talked about is this is a well-trodden path in PKU. And in many centers with such a strong data package that Matt just outlined, it's a good thing. So the -- we're not going to look for patients, which is challenging and costly. Newborn screening is widespread across most major markets. So patients are identified at birth. Treatment centers are well known, and the multidisciplinary care teams engage with the patients very frequently because if you think about it, you've got geneticists, prescribers in the U.S. and then outside of the U.S. is pediatric metabolic specialists. But in addition to that, you've got the dietitians, and they play an incredibly important role in these patients' treatment journeys and disease journeys because they need to manage that Phe restricted diet on an ongoing basis, and that continues whether they're on therapy or off therapy. In addition to that, the disease is well documented, and it's clear from a market access point of view what's needed to be able to establish treatment benefit and value. And then lastly, it's a well-coordinated and connected patient advocacy community. So across the board, the teams have been engaging for a number of years now with the key treatment centers of excellence. And many of those top physicians were investigators in our AFFINITY study. The teams have also been engaging with the patient advocacy groups and being present in a number of these conferences. And we've really seen a very steep and quick pull coming from the market in the sense of both physicians and patients wanting to see when they can get access to sepiapterin and really looking forward to, as Matt was saying, not just a Phe reduction but a potential to liberalize that diet because that means everything to these patients and physicians.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#54

Okay. So a couple of questions. Do you think you could get, similar to what I just asked about Translarna, priority review because it's an undermet need area?

Matthew Klein

executive
#55

We'll certainly -- we certainly have all of the justification to support the priority review, and we'll request it as part of the application.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#56

Yes. And do you think something like this application would also necessitate an AdCom?

Matthew Klein

executive
#57

I don't think so because as you're in the realm of precedent, the FDA is very clear on what -- and has a very clear understanding of the thresholds for approval for these drugs. And even just looking at previous therapies, we clearly clear those bars.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#58

Yes. Okay. That's good to know. And then for the commercial prep, how big of an infrastructure do you need?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#59

We have the infrastructure in place. So we are not planning to add infrastructure, and we have it across all elements of customer-facing teams. So we have it from key account managers that engage with the physicians, the patient engagement team that engaged with the patients and also the patient advocacy groups. We have our market access teams in place that engage with payers, and they've already begun those discussions to understand what's required from a payer point of view, and we have everything in hand, which is very reassuring. And then also our medical team, the MSLs that also engage with physicians. So infrastructure is in place. We're not planning to add to it, and hence, we're in a good position to really hit the ground running upon approval.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#60

Okay. So if you get approved on a Tuesday, technically, you could launch on a Wednesday, basically, unless you need to print out your labels or whatever?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#61

Yes. There's a few logistics to go alongside it, but yes, we will be as quick as we possibly can, yes.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#62

And what portion of the population do you think would be the earliest onboarders?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#63

It's a good question. I think you'll see it coming from across the board. That's what we've heard from physicians and patients alike. I think from our perspective, we always saw those that are therapy naive who want to move quickly and see if they could get on to the therapy because I think nobody wants to remain on a Phe restricted diet alone. It's burdensome and it doesn't give you the outcomes that you're looking for. So therapy naive, classical PKU that have had nothing else that have been able to access. I think that's one. Another that we thought through is those that have previously tried Kuvan that failed, not had a response. I think one that was a little bit of -- I wouldn't say a surprise to us, but something that we didn't expect in the near term, but it's something that physicians have pushed very hard with us on is those that have had a response on Kuvan and are "controlled" but could use additional control in the sense that they could actually gain another 100 micromole per liter Phe reduction and be able to potentially liberalize their diet. And that is a big deal. And we didn't think that, that would be a near-term patient segment, but physicians have said loud and clear that, that would also be a segment that they would look to start patients on.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#64

Okay. So in aggregate, all those subgroups that you just mentioned, do you have a sense of what percent of the total PKU population that would be?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#65

So we think we have an ability to target the full PKU population. I think one of the things that we've talked about, and Matt alluded to it in his opening, is that we believe we can easily achieve north of $1 billion in market opportunity. So another way to answer that is if you look at the 58,000 patients globally, as Matt said, there's less than 10% that are well controlled on current therapies. All it would take to sort of take Palynziq-like pricing and achieve north of $1 billion is around 15% market penetration. Now we're not aiming for that. We can do much better than that. But just to help frame how easy it is to get to that point.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#66

Okay. And then last question is the steepness of the launch, how should we be thinking about that?

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#67

Yes. Look, I think one of the things that PTC has done in the past and will do again with PKU is not only look at moving quickly in markets where we'll be securing pricing and reimbursement but also named patient programs and early access programs. And with either an EU approval or a U.S. approval, there's a number of countries that we can move quickly with that, with Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, parts of Europe, et cetera. So we'll do that. But what I would say is in the U.S., if we look at that as a stand-alone country, we're able to move very quickly. As I said, the framework for launch success is there. And from our point of view, it's about differentiating, and we think we have the package to do that. Obviously, when you look at ex U.S., it takes a little more time because of individual country-by-country pricing and reimbursement negotiations, but we'll be able to move quickly with named patient and early access while we negotiate.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#68

Okay. With that, we're out of time. Thanks, Kylie, for talking very fast and for answering the questions.

Kylie O'Keefe

executive
#69

No worries.

Tazeen Ahmad

analyst
#70

Thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We hope you enjoy the rest of the conference, and thanks again. Thanks.

Matthew Klein

executive
#71

Thanks.

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