PTT Public Company Limited (PTT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome back to the second part of today, which is the session about third Q and 9 months performance. Of course, you can ask your questions via chat box of both Facebook Live and MS Team. I would like to invite Khun Auttapol Rerkpiboon, CEO of PTT Group; and Khun Pannalin Mahawongtikul, the CFO. Please.

Good afternoon, analysts and fund managers. Today, I would like to report performance of third Q of 2021. Let us start by activity highlights of the quarter divided into PTT itself and subsidiaries of PTT Group. So for PTT, the blue part, PTT has established EVME PLUS with Arun+ that we set up to look at entire EV value chain business. So it has established EVME PLUS THB 1 billion registered capital to work on the EV ecosystem ranging from EV rental. People who are not so confident, they can rent and experience it using application or EV charger management within this app or even maintenance of EV cars. So all these are key towards building an ecosystem for EV cars in Thailand. Arun+ also signed a joint venture agreement with [ Lin Yin ] International investment, which is a subsidiary of Foxconn or it's Foxconn itself. So Foxconn through its subsidiary joint with Arun+ resulting in a JV registered capital of THB 3.2 billion. They share, 60%, Arun+ and Lin Yin 40%. It will focus on setting up an EV manufacturing factory. It can be FID-ed in the latter half of next year. Third, Arun+, buy Arun+ too, so we will see more future energy and beyond activities coming online, Arun+ will sign an MOU with Hozon, the top EV startup from China to explore opportunities for EV market expansion and production. In Thailand, the scope will cover the fact that Hozon may use Foxconn's platform to manufacture and market in Thailand. This is under joint study. Furthermore, it will operate lease and sales of EV through EVME PLUS service platform. Fourth, PTTGL has bought shares of BGRIM Power LNG, totaling 250,000 shares resulting in PTTGL and BGRIM will have equal shares in this JV, 50-50 in order to procure and supply LNG as well as seeking further business opportunities related to LNG value chain, so that's another portfolio we are expanding. And in fact, we have secured the volume of BGRIM's existing power plants' portfolio. And fifth, we renewed the gas purchase agreement for Nam Phong Power Plant covering 10 years starting from 2022 and the total is THB 53 billion. SCOD is in the next 3 years, using natural gas to the tune of 90 billion cubic feet per day. So those are PTT. Now for various companies within PTT Group, PTTEP established a total of 7 subsidiaries, starting with Rovula on marine inspection using AI Skyller, operates integrated asset inspection via drones; Varuna, operates drone services for smart farming; Cariva is health data network using AI technology and robotics to generate in-depth data plus 3 companies, namely FutureTech Energy Ventures. FutureTech Solar to invest in renewables, focusing on solar thermal. And last but not least, Delta Gas Transportation, which will operate gas to power business of that PTTEP, as I said, within PTT Group, PTT and PTTEP will focus on AI robotics as well. For its subsidiary, PTT or International Holdings Singapore set up a private fund jointly with 500 start-ups under the name, Orzon Ventures, with the initial investment value of USD 25 million with the intention to invest in start-ups with potentials in Thailand as well as in Southeast Asia. And next, we have Modulus Venture, bought shares of Imsub Global Cuisine totaling [indiscernible] Japanese Cuisine brand [indiscernible] and others to diversify within the food sector, GC setup, GC Marketing Solutions Shanghai Company Limited with registered capital of USD 600,000 or THB 20 million to support trading import/exports of polymer products in China, which is our major market. GC Inter BV bought ordinary shares of Allnex Holding totaling EUR 4 billion. I think you have heard details about this from our press conference about Allnex, which manufactures coating resins and additives. Next, major works, which is a subsidiary of GC invest in bioplastic polylactic acid. The second plant totaling over USD 600 million, building upon Thailand's agricultural materials to produce bioplastic in support of GC screen business portfolio, expected COD is in 2024. Thai Oil bought 15.4% shares in PT Chandra Asri, which is a massive petrochemical complex in Indonesia. The investment total is USD 1.1 billion in order to diversify TOP into the new geographical area of Indonesia and diversification into petrochemical. IRPC invested in improving the production line to bring output in line with Euro V standards under the UCF project in line with the government's policy to improve the quality of fuel in use in Thailand from next year on, investment totaling THB 13 billion, SCOD is in January 2024. GPSC, GRSC which is its subsidiary, invested in Avaada in India buying shares at 41% of Avaada. Avaada has solar power plants with a capacity of 4,560 megawatts. We hold about 40% shares. So GPSC has 2,000 megawatts and GPSC also offer to buy shares of CI Changfang Limited and CI Xidao Limited at a proportion of 25% for the investment of $500 million. It is developing wind -- offshore wind energy in Taiwan with total capacity of 595 megawatts. So this will open up opportunities for us to learn offshore wind technology. So these are key activities within our group in the third quarter. Next, I would like to talk about key business drivers, starting with petrol product prices. Dubai crude, I think we know very well that average Dubai crude in Q3 has increased by 7% over Q2 from $66.9 per barrel to 71.7%, mainly because of less demand from the U.S. due to the impact of hurricane and OPEC members continue the policy to gradually increase their output, i.e., about 400,000 barrels per month from August 2021 to September next year. And so far, they have rigorously observed the agreements. And there is increase or better demand due to economic stimulus and easing of lockdowns and demand for diesel and fuel oils also increased due to winter and increasing gas price, resulting in reserve lower than 5-year average. In any case, what we have to monitor is the pandemic situation, the delta variant remains a pressure factor. So that's Q-on-Q, up 7%. 9 months and 9 months, of course, major spike compared to same period last year, 60%, from 41.4% to 66.2%. For fuel oil, likewise, up -- on the uptrend. So Q-on-Q, up 12% from 61% to 68%. 9 months on the 9-month basis, up 65%. Natural gas price, Q3 of PDT up 8%, mainly due to LNG import and Myanmar smart prices have increased significantly whereas PTT pool price takes into account, various sources for the contracted sources averaging 6 months to 1 year and therefore, not very big -- not wildly fluctuating. So price is up 8%, mainly due to 23% increase in import and gas price in Myanmar up 12%; Gulf of Thailand gas price stabilized at $5.7 per million Btu. So 9 months basis, the price is down by about 6% from $6.74 to $6.63 MMBTU. From both Myanmar and Gulf of Thailand, Myanmar down 10%; Gulf of Thailand 9%, LNG import up 2%. Let's take a look at petrochemical prices. For Q-on-Q, olefin HDPE slightly down 4% because of less supply, especially within Asian and new capacity from China and Vietnam putting pressure on the market. In any case, producers that use coal and methanol, PPE slightly down 7%, due to same reasons as HDPE 9 months, is up for olefins. Aromatics up. Q-on-Q benzene price is slightly up at 3% on the back of crude and naphtha rising prices. In any case, the spread is down due to changes in dual control policy in China and less demand due to maintenance shutdown in China and stop of production in U.S. as a result of hurricane and PX up 7% on the back of crude and naphtha. Price increase spread less due to supply and the policy in China and inventory level remains high and problems with distribution and export in China. 9 months basis, the price is up. On FX, Foreign exchange at the end of Q3, Baht has weakened by 1.5 -- 1.9 resulting in FX loss increase compared with the previous Q. We all know well that the Baht has weakened in Q3. Khun Pannalin will elaborate great detail on FX loss. 9 months, likewise, at end of 9 months, the end rate Thai Baht is weaker by more than 3 Baht due to -- well, as a result, we suffered quite a heavy FX loss. Average Baht 9 months this year at the same level as 9 months last year at THB 31.7. So those are key drivers. Next, let's take a look at performance. Khun Pannalin.

Thank you, CEO. The CEO has covered key drivers. I think you are on top of the fact that the oil prices are positive factors, but the weaker Baht be it 9 months or third quarter, Q-on-Q, year-on-year are negative factors, and therefore, FX loss is higher for the quarter in question. Let's take a look at the broad level because petrol and crude prices are higher. Q-on-Q revenue is higher by about 5% by -- in revenue across all businesses due to petrochem prices. On the back of oil price trend, EBITDA Q-on-Q slightly down, down by about 2% due to petrochem refinery and/or business. P&R is down because sales volume of refineries are down because of maintenance -- planned maintenance shutdown and more cost from crude premiums and oil business. EBITDA is down because of volumes and less gross margin because of the pandemic impact that persists. Gas business EBITDA is higher mainly because of gas separation plant and higher petrochem prices. And EP EBITDA is higher because of average sales price that is higher despite 6% less sales volume. In terms of net income Q-on-Q, down by 4% in line with less EBITDA and also FX loss, which is higher to the tune of THB 5 billion due to weaker Baht. For tax expenses, down by about THB 5.4 billion due to less operating results. Last on derivatives, also down by THB 852 million because of losses in derivatives and/or hedging loss of PTTEP, whereas impairment is also down because in Q3 we have amortized the parts and also impairment of THB 232 million of Thai Oil. But in Q2, we have recognized the impairment in Emery of GC and resulting in net income Q-on-Q down. For 9 months, likewise, revenue is up by about 30% on the back of spike of oil prices as the CEO mentioned. As a result, revenue across business groups have improved, be it trading P&R, EP, and oil. EBITDA up more than 100%, chiefly because of refinery improved significantly on the back of crude price increase resulting in stock gains, increased by about THB 28 billion within 9 months. Now 9 months last year, stock loss is at THB 23 billion. Petrochem, olefins price is up similar to aromatics, driving EBITDA up. EP sales volume up by 20% because of Oman Block 61, Bongkot, and Contract4, higher nomination and Malaysia H block that has started producing in February this year. Average sales price is up by 7% gas business, mainly from GSP itself. Because benchmark price is higher, so GSP sales price is higher. And gas cost is down, hence, improved margins. S&M EBITDA up on the back of higher gas volume and higher sales price to industrial users on the back of improved FO price. Net income for 9 months up more than 100% apart from EBITDA, on top of increasing EBITDA. But as I say, FX loss increased by THB 12 billion because 9 months last year, we have FX gain of THB 459 million. But 9 months this year, FX loss is at THB 12 billion, and therefore, it's negative factor and higher tax expense of THB 31 billion due to higher operational results. Losses of derivatives up by THB 38 billion because of oil prices that are on quick spike resulting in losses of derivatives, both for EP, trading, GC and Thai Oil. In addition, there is recognition of nonrecurring items for 9 months this year. So totally positive factor of THB 168 million, ranging from recognizing buying for less and fair value, THB 7 billion for EP recognizing the investment of Ubon Ethanol THB 233 million, but netting with the asset impairment after evaluation in Brazil about THB 39 billion and depreciation of Emery and part impairment of PTTEP resulting in net income that is still better than 100%. So that's a big picture. However, in terms of sector, we will start with E&P. You can see that for Q-on-Q the performance is better. So sales price increased by 5% from 42.19 to 44.25 and this is mainly from the increase of the average of the liquid price. However, the sales volume was down by 6% from 443 to 417 KBOED, mainly from Bongkot from Thai Malaysia joint investment project and from Yadana project. Net profit increased 32% from USD 222 million to USD 292 million, thanks mostly from the positive factors, which is a decline of loss from financial tools of around USD 120 million. DD&A also down by USD 20 million. And this is mainly from Oman 61, Vietnam 16.1, and Bongkot project. Negative factors includes increasing expense in terms of petroleum exploration by USD 43 million. FX loss also increased by USD 34 million as a result of Baht depreciation. Operating expense also increased USD 27 million. As a result of increasing maintenance costs, unit costs also increased by USD 2.15 per BOE, and this is a result of the amortization of [indiscernible] reserve in Myanmar and PM415 in Malaysia. For 9 months, the performance is getting better. Sales price increased by 7% from 39.69% to 42.34%, mainly from the increase of the liquid price. And so -- and at the same time, the average sales volumes increased 20% from 345 to 415 KBOED and mainly from Oman 61, Bongkot project and Contract4 as well as the Malaysian project, which started producing natural gas in February 2021. Net profit increased by 39% from USD 639 to USD 890. So positive factors are profit from the acquisition of business at a price lower than the fair price of Oman 61. However, there are negative factors, namely loss from financial tools by USD 399 million, mainly from the hedging loss. In addition, tax expense also increased by USD 315 million. DD&A also increased by USD 244 million and mostly from the acquisition of Oman 61, S1 and Bongkot and Contract4 as well as increasing royalty by USD 82 million. So this is the performance of E&P. In terms of PTT, there are gas and trading, so in terms of EBITDA of PTT. So EBITDA increased by 10% from THB 23 billion to THB 25 billion, and this is coming from both gas and trading business. And EBITDA in gas increased by 6% and mostly from GSP and S&M. In terms of S&M, EBITDA increased by 15%, and this is a result of the profit of the export of LNG. And so this happened in Q1 and then in Q2, we need to return to the state. However, in this quarter, there was not such an item. And in addition, average sale price to industrial users also increased as a result of the increase of the FO yet. The cost of gas also increased by 8% as a result of the FO price and JCC. In terms of sales volumes, it was down by 11% from 4.7 MMSCFD to 4.2 MMSCFD in all types of customers. In terms of the power customers, this was down by 13%. And this is because the demand for electricity was down on a seasonal basis. And we also accept electricity more from hydro power plant. In addition, there was an extra demand in the second quarter of 2021 because of the emergency shutdown of coal fire for coal-fired power plant, and that's why the sales are down in terms of power business by 13%. GSP was also down by 11%, and this was because of the major shutdown of GSP #6. For industrial customers, this was down by 5%, and this was a result of the maintenance and other industrial customers. The sales volumes were also down as a result of COVID-19. Sales to NGV was also down by 16%, and this was because travel was down and cars also switched to other types of fuel, that's why sales of NGV was down. Regarding the TM transmission, the EBITDA slightly down by 1%, and this was because the sales revenues was down and because of gas also was up as a result of the higher price of the average pooled gas. For GSB gas separation plant, its EBITDA was up by 11%, and this was mainly because of the increase of the average sales price, and this is coming mainly from the LPG and propane price and as a result of the shortage of energy in Europe, and that's why the natural gas price was up. In addition, sales volume was down by 6% as a result of major shutdown, yet GSP EBITDA increased by 11%. NGV's loss was up by THB 40 million or 9%. And this was because of its lockdown, which was about 45 days and this effects its margin. The sales volume was down by 18%. And for others, this slightly increased by THB 45 million and this concerned PTTNGD, which will increase by THB 54 million. For trading, its EBITDA was high, was increasing by more than 100%. And this was mainly because of the increase of the margin, which was higher than 100% to THB 0.16 per liter in the third quarter as a result of the higher spread margin. However, sales volume was down by 7% and this was because of the decline of the out-out trading. So this is the result of the Q-on-Q. For 9 months, EBITDA overall improved by 72% from THB 41 billion to THB 71 billion both from gas and trading. In the gas business, EBITDA overall improved by 74%, consisting of S&M which has exceeded 100% improvement due to average sales price. According to fuel oil price, pooled gas cost down. So all positive factors resulting in the spike of EBITDA. The 2% sales increase. So all industry users up on the back of economic recovery. Industry plus 12%; power plus 1% in line with the demand and recovered economy as well as the emergency maintenance shutdown of coal plants this year, as I already mentioned. For gas volume for GSP, up 2% according to demand and less maintenance shutdown, whereas NGV sales are down by 19% as users switched to diesel and benzene. Transmission EBITDA down by 6%. Their revenue has decreased because of less booking and the trade volume also down by 5%. GSP EBITDA more than 100% due to the whole range of positive factors, increasing average sales price, fee costs down by 11%. Sales volume up by 8% across products. NGV EBITDA down by -- or less loss by 34% with positive factors across the board. Less sales, less losses, less gas cost and less public subsidy as we have withdrawn subsidy for public transport, effective 1st of January for others, up by 35% mainly from NGD due to high average sales price. Trading EBITDA is higher by 45%, chiefly because of higher margins by 25% from margin condensate due to higher spread margin and less discount whereas sales volumes down by 5%. So that's EBITDA of PTT only. Now let's take a look at the OR group, if we look at Q-on-Q, net income of OR is down, resulting in both -- as a result of both oil and non-oil businesses, sales volumes and the margin. Starting with oil business, sales volume down by 6% because of diesel and gasoline due to the outbreak of COVID compared with second quarter, average selling price up and gross profit per liter. Usually, during the uptrend, they cannot keep up and therefore, the margins quite squeezed, whereas operating expense, OpEx, is higher because we -- they subsidized distributives and non-oil. Operating results are down. Sales revenue down on both the volumes, number of cups of Amazon as a result of lockdowns. Sales volume down by 3% Q-on-Q. And C-store business also down because of the closing hours. So despite more shops, the sales volume is down due to restrictions of opening out resulting in the decrease of both gross margin and EBITDA. For 9 months, net income of OR improved by 55% from THB 5 billion to THB 9 billion chiefly because of oil business with increasing margin despite less sales volumes. Starting with oil business, sales volume, their sales volumes down by 8%, both diesel, gasoline and jet fuel because tourism remained dormant. And the gross profit per liter improved by 29%. Gross margin and EBITDA improved and OpEx down because of the service fees for jet fuel and less service intake from petrol business. For non-oil business, operating results are down. Sales revenues down mainly due to C-store and non-oils, whereas sales volume of Amazon's cups are up due to expansion of Amazon branches to 3,512 outlets. Gross margin slightly up, corresponding with revenue intakes of food and beverages. Baht EBITDA is down because of marketing incentives to stimulate sales. So that's OR. Let's take a look at P&R. For -- in terms of Q-and-Q, net income down by 64% due to olefins and refinery. Olefins product price is down according to oil price trend and product spreads also down, due to raw material costs such as naphtha, LPG that are higher. According to the oil price, in any case, sales volume of olefins has improved. Because of expansion of production, the olefin reconfiguration project, which COD in June. Even though overall capacity has decreased slightly. U-Rate decreased from 93% to 91%. For aromatics, performance of aromatics has improved as PX spread increased by 6% due to tight supply in China due to the maintenance shutdown, but benzene spread down by 4% due to less supply and impact of hurricane either resulting in producer in the U.S. has to stop producing for a while. For refinery, overall, U-Rate is down from 96% in Q2 to 88% in Q3. Of GC, Thai oil and IRPC, all U-Rates are down. In any case, their stock gain has decreased. And so stock gain in Q2 stood at THB 8.5 billion, but by Q3, it's down to THB 7.7 billion or THB 830 million less, but market GRM increased from $1.6 per barrel in second Q to $2.1 in third Q resulting in less performance of refinery. For net income, P&R net income down from THB 31 billion in second Q to THB 11 billion in the third Q and factors that seem to decrease considerably stem from GC. In Q2, GC has gains from share sales of about THB 9 billion and reclassification of investment, i.e., reclassifying investment in GPSC. Hence, a positive factor of THB 8 billion. So in Q2, GC's performance looked good, but this quarter it encountered FX loss. So it looked like a big gap between Q2 and Q3. 9 months, net income of P&R group is higher than 100%. For -- well, starting with olefins. The graph has taken a spike, product price high, hence, improved performance due to PE pellets price higher on the back of raw material and robust demand on the back of recovering economy across the globe, resulting in improved petrochem price and sales volume also up and therefore, performance of the olefins sector has increased. For aromatics, the spread has improved, both benzene and PX. And therefore, aromatics performance improved as well. Refinery, U-Rate on the whole decreased from 97%, 9 months last year to 93% 9 months this year, mainly GC, Thai Oil. GC shutdown maintenance for 25 days, Thai Oil adjusted production plan in light of the COVID and less demand for jet fuel, whereas IRPC U-Rate remained the same at the range of 89%. GRM for refineries, market GRM increase considerably from $0.9 to $1.8 higher due to spreads of benzene and crude and stock gain 9 months increased significantly to the range of THB 52 billion because 9 months 2020 it's loss. This year it's gained, so to and fro about THB 52 billion resulting in robust performance in the P&R. And likewise, the overall impact on net income, GC, on the booking of profit of GPSC and investment reclassification, even though it recognized the impairment of Emery Oleochemicals of THB 3 billion and higher FX loss. But on the whole, it's performed has improved. For GPSC, Q-on-Q net income has softened by about 19%, resulting from average sales volume down, the 11% decrease in power despite 2% increase in steam because of the shutdown of SPP, the GHECO-One stopped for about -- unplanned shutdown 28 and Glow Phase 5 unplanned shutdown from 14th of August, resulting in power sales volume down and then impacting gross profit 10% lower. So margins of both SPP and IPP down and net income down by 19%. In addition, there's impact on other aspects as well because in Q2, it recognized the insurance premium of Glow THB 310 million due to unplanned shutdown, whereas Q3 the -- it recognized the intake of fines in the range of THB 300 million. Positive factor, dividends and profit shares from Xayaburi up THB 249 million because this year, water volumes are high, resulting in more generation and dividend from Ratchaburi Power. 9 months GPSC performance improved, thanks to Xayaburi contribution. Sales volume up by 1% and steam up by 12%. The sales volume of SPP higher because of more sales to industrial users and less sales to IPP because GHECO-One has shutdown, planned and unplanned. In fact, the gross profit is down and SPP slightly up. Baht net up 2% because of greater contribution from Xayaburi, THB 700 million due to higher water volume and recognizing the insurance payment. So these are highlights of GPSC performance. So if we look at the waterfall, you can see that Q-on-Q, the margin is getting better by THB 1.7 billion and this is coming from E&P, gas and coal and trading businesses, whereas the margin of P&R and oil are down. Stock gains is down by THB 1.3 billion. OpEx also increased by THB 3 billion mainly from the writing off of EP from [indiscernible] Malaysia PM415 in the third quarter this year. DD&A also increased by THB 687 million, and this is mainly from the GC [indiscernible] started the production in June this year. Other incomes increased by THB 365 million. Impairment was also down by THB 2.2 billion. As already informed earlier, the FX and derivative loss increased by THB 4.6 billion as a result of the Baht depreciation. Derivative loss was down by THB 852 million. Interest, corporate income tax and NCI, there was a positive factor as it was down by THB 4.4 billion. Of this, tax expense was down by THB 5.4 billion, and this is mainly from GC where there was a tax as a result of the disposition of its investment in GPSC by THB 4.6 billion, whereas interest expense also increased by THB 368 million. Regarding the financial position, the total asset increased by 17% compared to the end of last year. The cash and cash equivalent was up by THB 56 billion because we borrowed more this year and overall speaking, we have the cash and short-term investment more. Regarding current asset, this was increased by THB 131 billion and mainly from the inventory and account receivable. Noncurrent assets was up by THB 120 billion, mainly from the short term -- from long-term investment as a result of Thai oil investment in cap and GPSC's investment in Avaada. The PPE also increased by THB 115 billion and this was mainly from the acquisition of PTTEP in Oman 61 and TOP CFP project. In terms of liability, the interest-bearing debt increased by THB 140 billion, and this was mainly from long-term loans and increasing debenture, and this was coming from PTT, GC and TOP. Other liabilities increased by THB 136 billion, mainly from increasing account payable as a result of the increasing price. And the shareholders' equity also increased by THB 148 billion and this was mainly coming from the net profit during the 9 months of THB 80 billion and the OR's capital increase. Net debt to EBITDA was down from 1.68 to 1.16, although net debt was higher. However, the EBITDA is up even higher, and that's why net debt to EBITDA was slightly down, yet net debt to equity slightly increased from 0.29 to 0.32 as a result of higher loans. The next page is about cash flow. And you can see here that at the beginning, earlier this year, we have cash together with a short-term investment of around THB 416 billion. However, we have free cash flow from the operating finance of THB 216 billion, yet we invest around THB 235 billion, and this is a result of PTTEP Oman Block 61, S1, Mozambique Area 1 and Arthit. And in addition, Thai Oil also invested in [indiscernible] and GPSE also invested in Avaada. And that's why the free cash flow was in minus by THB 18 billion. And for financing, we had loans -- we had cash as a result of financing activities of around THB 71 billion. So altogether we -- and when net with -- we have the cash in by THB 40 billion. So at the end of the period, we have cash and short-term investment of around THB 473 billion. Let's continue with the outlook, starting with global economic outlook, IMF in October, still forecast that the global economy shall continue to expand, albeit at lower rates from this year, 5.9%. Next year, it is projected to grow at 4.5% with key countries to follow similar pattern. Positive drivers would include vaccination rollout and therapies. Improving trends, most countries can vaccinate their population extensively and physical stimulus measures in industrialized countries. For example, the U.S. infrastructure planned THB 1.2 trillion that's just been passed by the Congress and many countries continue its easing fiscal monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and in the short-term commodity exporting countries shall benefit from higher price trends. Negative factors, there is great vaccine divide between industrialized and developing countries. And economic stimulus policies differ resulting in large disparities in recovery and also the uncertainty about the pandemic still continues to impact global supply chain every once in a while. Shortages of key raw materials continue to play the situation, and there will be inflationary pressures in many countries. So these are factors impacting global economy. Now for Thailand. The forecast by various fintechs. The growth next year would be in the range of 0.2% to 1.6%. Next is forecast. Well, many expects that after next year, things will be better in the range of 3% to 5.7%. Drivers being continued exports of merchandise on the back of global recovery and Thailand is easing restrictions imposed during the pandemic and the state sector has plans to continue with economic stimulus, negative factors to monitor. Actually, in Thailand, the new infection rates are quite high. And for -- well, only half of the population has been fully vaccinated, i.e. 2 doses, and these will affect investors' confidence and consumption. Also the supply chain disruptions, logistics delay and dampened recovery will inhibit Thailand's export as well as tourism sector recovery. It's expected that Thai GDP shall not return to pre-COVID level, at least not until after next year. For petroleum and gas outlook, overall, average petroleum products price next year will be higher across product categories. Dubai, in 2022, the average is expected to be [ $70 ], higher demand. Because of global economic recovery, the energy shortage crisis across the world push up fuel prices. Many countries have adjusted by using oil to generate energy instead of natural gas and the tight supply as OPEC countries still stick to their gradual increase of production plan by about 400,000 barrels per day until September next year. Negative factors. The supply from OPEC Plus and Iran will gradually come back online, particularly U.S. and Iran, if the nuclear pact negotiation goes well, then this will result in it. Gasoline average price, [ $82 to $87 ] per barrel. Demand is likely to recover as restrictions -- travel restrictions ease and inventory level remains low in the U.S. and Europe. Negative factors range from increased supply due to increased U-Rate. So refineries will be back producing as usual. Gas oil next year averaging [ $81 to $86 ] due to higher demand and higher natural gas price and the incentives for power plants to use diesel and less export from China because of its increase in domestic construction and tightening measures to rain in emission. High-sulfur fuel oil expected to range from [ $66 to $71 ] due to greater demand in South Asia, mainly Pakistan because of very high LNG price and OPEC Plus factor. Singapore GRM is projected to improve next year. We reckon it should be in the range of $4 to $5 this year. It's forecast at $3.6 per barrel last year was very bad at $0.2. So that's because of the higher demand trend. Natural gas. Asian spot LNG this year, the average is $17 -- sorry, next year, $17.8 versus this year of $15.5 because of low inventory in Europe and higher demand for winter, and the global trend is towards transitioning from fossil fuel view to cleaner energy, resulting in higher LNG demand, especially in China because when we compare with -- amongst the fossil types, gas is relatively cleanest. Henry Hub is higher next year in the range of $4 per million Btu; this year, $3.6 due to higher demand and economic recovery. Next, I would like to talk about petrochem outlook for olefins. The price is likely to decrease due to additional capacities coming online from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, particularly from China and Chinese government's call intervention and easing of U.S. export supply. And that shall put pressure on the Asian market's sentiment. Positive factors include tight supply in China from power outage and run rate reduction as a result of dual energy control policy and expected demand recovery. Forecast price for HDPE down by about 2.5% from this year at 1,120 -- 1,160. Next year, it's going to be 1,120. And PPE also down to 1,275 for aromatics. Outlook due to uncertainty of capacities for benzene and PX towards end of this year in China and Saudi Arabia and new capacities next year from Northeast and Southeast Asia, particularly China. So these new capacities will come online and pressure the pricing and China's energy policy. So benzene and PX market will face more downstream and recovery and things will balance out. So outlook, it will be about 5% less in the range of THB 850 to THB 900 per ton. PX is forecast to be up by about 3% from -- well, to THB 870. I would like to present now PTT Group guidance, divided into the fourth Q and 2022 for Q4, gas business outlook for PTT. The gas price is likely to increase by 20% to 25% as well as higher -- because of fuel oil price and gas price. Domestic gas demand is expected to stabilize. COD project would include nonwoven fabric plants of Innopolymed, which is the joint venture between IRPC 60% and Innobic's Asia, which is wholly-owned by PTT to do life science business. The nonwoven fabric used for face mask and PPE and air filter capacity 2.1 K per annum. It's scheduled COD is in December this year. Planned shutdown for PTT Group in Q4 gas separation plants, #3, will decrease capacity by 60% for 6 days and GSP #6 shutdown for 9 days. Ethane crackers of GC for about 1 month. for Oleflex. Business outlook 2022. The trend per business group, E&P of PTTEP, crude oil price is likely to increase in line with demand and gradual production increase of OPEC Plus that's positive for EP and EP has consistently driven down costs to bring it to a competitive level at less than $30 per barrel mainly because of its acquisition of Block 61 in Oman in [ March ]. And this block has very low production cost, and it will bring down the average cost of EP. Gas, domestic gas demand to increase slightly from industrial and manufacturing sectors as overall GDP improve. Gas demand is projected to grow at about 3%. Gas costs next year is likely to increase because of increase [ at source ] and oil higher sales volume is projected as consumption picks up and/or has strengthened its networking expansion in terms of numbers of stations in Thailand and overseas and the branches of Cafe Amazon and the expansion is both organic and inorganic through acquisitions of shares in related business. P&R refinery is projected to recover on the back of higher demand. Singapore GRM, I already mentioned, will improve to the range of $4 to $5 per barrel. PTT Group utilization rate is projected to be 94% to 90%, slight increase compared to this year. Petchem product prices would be acceptive to pressure from new capacities of supply. Power sector, domestic electricity consumption is likely to increase new energy businesses. Arun+ aims to roll out EV charger expansion to 1,300 units. OR also will install 200 more EV charger facilities, so all together 300. And there will be final investment decision concerning EV platform through Arun+ and Foxconn joint venture. Upcoming projects to be SCOD'ed, the oil gas pipeline #5. Overall, the 3 phases shall be complete next year. LNG receiving terminal to 7.5 million capacity per year. Now the progress is 83%. SCOD full capacity in December next year. The high-quality plastic recycling project of GCE is due to complete Q1 next year, Avaada solar power in India that GPSC has entered into joint venture. At present, the capacity is 4,500, for GPSC part is about nearly 2,000 megawatt. 1,500 already COD, 3,000 megawatt under construction. So they will gradually come online towards the end of this year to early next year. Shutdown maintenance of PTT Group schedule. Next year, GSP in Q2, ESP major shutdown 23 days, Q2. GSP, 2 and 3, scaling down capacity for 23 days and GSP 5, 15 days. Petrochem and refineries, GC, they have scheduled for Q2, Q3. IRPC in Q3 according to the slide. So that's the PTT Group guidance I wish to share with you.