PTT Public Company Limited (PTT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, fund managers, analysts and executives of PTT. May I invite all of you to PTT Analyst Meeting for Q1 of 2024. [indiscernible] from IR would be the mistress of the ceremony today. We are also conducting our analyst meeting online through 2 channels, sales book life, PTT-IR for Thai version and -EN for English version, and we also provide the simultaneous interpretation for everyone so that we have the equality to access to information for both Thai and non-Thai stakeholders. Another channel, you were live through Microsoft team. For the schedule today, in the first session, we have Dr. Kongkrapan Intarajang, the CEO, the 11 CEO of PTT to talk to us on his vision and his management of PTT. And also for the announcement of Q1 performance together with the CFO. In the second session, we have the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] But before we get into our first session, may I introduce our executives Dr. Kongkrapan Intarajang, the Chief Executive Officer and President. Pannalin Mahawongtikul-kun, the Chief Financial Officer; We also have other executives presence with us, Wuttikorn Stithit-kun, Chief Operating Officer, Upstream Petroleum and Gas Business Group; Noppadol Pinsupa-kun, the Chief Operating Officer, Downstream Petroleum Business Group, and Dr. Buranin Rattanasombat, Chief New Business and Infrastructure Officer. And without further ado, we meet with our CEO and our CFO.

Good morning, our investors and the analysts. Me and executives of PTT would like to start with our strategies. This is the first time that we meet in PTT. So may I share with you my vision and my aspiration. We would like PTT to be strong together with the Thai society and also to grow globally. In order to be strong together with the Thai society and the world, we have to focus in sustainability. When we talk about sustainability, we have to manage our organization sustainably in all dimensions. When we talk about ESG and sustainability, everyone pays attention to it, not only with our investors but with all stakeholders. So our keyword is balanced between environment, society and economic. At the same time, PTT has an important mandate to create national energy security. 10 years ago, the security is not that important because we think it's stable and secure enough. But for the past few years, it gains more and more importance with changing geopolitics. Energy security is not an easy task. We have to manage it very well and cautiously. PTT would like to grow to be strong. At the same time, we have to think of GHG reduction. PTT and our flagship companies have to handle our emission from our activities. We have to manage greenhouse gas our target of net 0. While growing our investment plan are to increase our level of competitiveness and how to grow sustainably. We have to think of our carbon reduction as well. So we have to think about the balance of the ESG so that we can balance between our growth and our GHG emission reduction and also to take care of our society at the same time. For every investment, we need to have our income, our benefits. But this, we are talking about our long-term benefits. We have to focus on our sustainability. So apart from energy security, we have to take care of our society. PTT is quite big. So we are strong. We can help propel our economy. But at the same time, we have to take care of the people in the society, for example, the SMEs, to help them grow together. So this is one of our major considerations. So we have to look after all of the dimensions to make everything balanced. Now talking about investment, it should be beneficial to PTT to the country and to all stakeholders and to Thailand. We have a lot of investments not only the new business but the old business like hydrocarbon, we would like to make sure that we are agile enough for anything that is good we have to be cautious, but we have to be quick as well. For example, if we need to exit, we have to do it quick or if we want to change proportion of our investment, we have to be quick as well. We have to be very quick to exit and to adapt ourselves. Otherwise, we will carry too much assets and not create enough benefit. We also have to create confidence through good governance. We got quite a good rating but we have to improve ourselves all the time. We have to focus on our transparency and good governance starting from the procurement initiation of project decision of every investment. We also have to communicate this well with all the stakeholders. And last but not least, PTT has many good people but how can we join hands and integrate our work. The paradigm of the world is changing. Competitiveness is changing. We might be successful in the past but we cannot just be complacent. We have to improve ourselves all the time as the bar are being raised and are being changed. So we need to use our good resources to synergize among our businesses and assets. We have a lot of companies under us, and we have to synergize the work among all of them. So this is the overview. But after this, we would have some more time to get into the details. All of these would be reflected in our plans and our actions for many activities. It might be changed in the future. Now I would like to give the mic to CFO, Pannalin-kun, please?

Thank you, CEO. May I start with the macro picture looking at consolidated performance. Let's look at the titer you will see that trading business in terms of revenue, trading still the more significant contributor EBITDA, likewise E&P, PTTEP contribute EBITDA more significantly among PTT Group, but looking at net income. The pie chart this time looks a bit different. Recently because oil and gas price adjustments, contribution from PTTEP was rather high. But this time around, new business contribution is 19% primarily, I will go into details later due to a selling of our Alvogen pharmaceutical business, and therefore, we gained THB 4.5 billion I will elaborate later. Now revenue, let's look at Q-on-Q first. Q-on-Q is down by about 3%, mainly from trading and P&R whose revenues plunged due to selling prices and volumes on the back of petroleum product prices, for example, Dubai crude, down 3% Q-on-Q. Oil business have less sales revenue on the back of less volume despite higher volume E&P, less sales revenue from both price and volume decreased gas down from S&M from average selling price on the back of poor gas price decrease. In any case, DSP gas separation plant saw increase of revenue due to higher volumes due to higher demand from Petrochem customers in Q1, there were less maintenance shutdown versus Q4 and also average selling prices increased across the board, according to benchmark prices. For new business and the higher sales revenue from GPSC higher on back of the availability factors and EBITDA Q-on-Q up by about 35% from virtually all business groups, be it refineries, higher EBITDA because in Q1, there's recognition of stock gains, whereas Q4 some stock losses marketing GIM increase also from $6.2 in Q4 to $7.9 in Q1 from benzene and crude margins have increased also crude premium that decrease. Petrochem business, EBITDA higher from aromatics and all the things in light of the spread between raw mat. And due to mark-to-market recognition of inventories from higher crude price despite lower selling volumes, oil business up due to gross margins of the sales and benzene that increase and also less operating expenses from less marketing and PR costs. New business EBITDA higher from primarily PTTGM higher orders of pharmaceutical products and higher from GSP, as I mentioned earlier, both selling prices and volumes increase. Transmission business, EBITDA higher from less maintenance shutdown expenses, NGV less loss on the back of low gas costs. However, S&M EBITDA was down because we had to calculate shortfalls and apply them as discount. If you recall, we already reported to the stock market that we have to use Single Pool price, apply Single Pool price formula. But in Q1, we have not yet reflected Singapore price in the performance because the state sector is still considering the procedures, the calculation formula and so this is yet reflected net income Q-on-Q less by about THB 38 billion or 12% despite higher EBITDA. This is mainly because of FX loss of about THB 30 billion, mainly unrealized FX loss because in Q1, Baht was weaker by about THB 2.2 per dollar whereas in Q4 Baht was stronger and therefore the variance is quite high and also derivative loss of THB 9 billion or so Baht. In any case, having said earlier, in Q1, we recognized nonrecurring net tax of about THB 4.4 billion from profits of selling for THB 4.5 billion. Now year-on-year performance. We see that in terms of revenue, it's up by 3%, mainly from trading P&R whose revenues have increased, trading higher volume P&R, refineries have higher revenues from benzene and fuel or Petrochems. Enjoyed higher selling volumes from Olefins, which has seen less maintenance shutdown year-on-year. Oil business revenue down on the back of volumes and price and less jet fuel sales in line with global trend gas, business less sales revenue. S&M due to the THB 4.3 billion shortfall despite average sales to power plant customers increase and transmission, higher revenue from higher commissioning and also from IPP and new shippers who have commissioned the pipeline use at GSP higher from volume and pricing increase, whereas new business down from SPPs of GPSC from less sale and less [indiscernible] EBITDA year-on-year up by about 14% from P&R. Likewise, refineries up from recognition of stock games Q1, Q2, Q3, stop-loss and crude premium decrease. If we look at market GRM, it's actually down from $8.4 to $7.9 Q1 this year. Petrochem EBITDA up from Olefins and Aromatics from the spread between raw mats. and outputs that improved gas less loss due to lower gas costs according to full gas price, we also adjusted selling price and less volume, therefore, less loss. GSP EBITDA up due to lower selling costs and higher volumes and average selling prices S&M down, as explained earlier. Trading EBITDA decrease due to hedging loss, higher hedging loss in Q1. As I said earlier, E&P down from higher depreciation from G1, G2/62 also less sales revenue due to less volume and less selling price. Let's take a look at net income year-on-year, our net income increased by about THB 1.1 billion or 4%, reflecting EBITDA increase and also income tax was THB 4 billion less, thanks to PTTEP and its operation in Thailand, Oman and Malaysia, whereas FX losses increased by about THB 18 billion because in Q1, as I say, Baht became weaker and Q1, Q2, Q3, appreciated by half a Baht and derivatives loss increase and financing costs increased by about THB 1.1 billion. Similarly, in Q1 there are nonrecurring item of THB 4.4 billion as PTT's tax. Let's take a look at cash waterfalls Q-on-Q net income dropped off about THB 3.8 billion in terms of waterfall broken down, you will see that PTT margins actually improved by about THB 11.5 billion. And these higher margins across nearly all business groups, except S&M whose margin is down due to shortfalls stock gains increase by about THB 15 billion due to recognition of quarterly stock gains, whereas Q4, it's stop-loss OpEx down by about THB 4.3 billion due to staff costs and less marketing PR costs, DD&A is positive, resulting in higher profits of THB 1.5 billion due to increased reserve for G2 and G1. Other income increased by about THB 780 million from recognition of nonrecurring items. The divestment of Alvogen and impairment loss also decreased by about THB 4.5 billion. In Q4, there are goodwill depreciation of Mozambique of THB 4.2 billion whereas in Q1 we do not have impairment, FX loss, FX and deliveries loss increased by about THB 40 billion asset earlier, interest and corporate income tax as well as NCI a negative to net income of about THB 1.3 billion from loss of joint ventures that increased mostly from operating result of P&R and NBI. For key drivers, starting with Q-on-Q, Q1 versus Q4 last year. Let's take a look at gas business. Natural gas business Q-on-Q higher sales volume from power plant customers -- power plant customers. The gas sales increased by 10% due to less dispatch from hydro power plant and GSP. The dispatch quite stable even though were despite the ramp-up of G1, which reached the THB 800 million gas milestone earlier than scheduled. In any case, other sources decreased and therefore, GSP stabilized. Industry uses also stable, industries increase Petrochem, however, Cogen less dispatch due to maintenance shutdown. NGV use less gas by about 2% due to a number of less cars. Gas cost Q-on-Q down by 5% due to less cost of LNG spot despite higher, slightly higher import volume. GSP key drivers, sales volume increased by about 2% from 1.57% due to 1.67% due to higher customers demand in Q1 due to less maintenance shutdown than Q4. Average selling price increased by 2% on the back of benchmark petrol price. Fee cost pretty much on par between Q4 and Q1. Year-on-year, the natural gas, you can see that the cost of the pool price is down by 26%, mainly from the spot LNG price, which is down according to the market condition and the Gulf gas price and Myanmar gas price for the average sales volume, it's increased by 10% to 4,400 MMSCFD. So we see 17% demand growth from the power customers as demand is increasing because the gas price is down quite significantly. Also, we have more consumption from the household because of hot weather in 2024. So we have more demand. GSP receives gas 13% more due to more production in the Gulf. NGV is down by 16% as the NGV, the numbers of cars is down for industry customers, the volume down by 16% from the Cogen shutdown and industry customers as Thai Oil CDU 3 has the unplanned shutdown for 13 days. For the construction customers, the demand is also shrinking. For the GSP, feed gas cost of GSP is down by 9% according to the Gulf price. So we can produce more average selling price has increased by 3% because of the FX as the Thai Baht weaken. Is Thai Baht depreciates that we have more margin and more income. But for the -- despite the decrease, petrochemical reference price. Now to the EBITDA of Gas. Q-on-Q and year-on-year, EBITDA increased, Q-on-Q is 3% and year-on-year is 62% from almost all of the business units except F&M, that's because of the THB 4.3 billion shortfall. For the trading business, Q-on-Q, EBITDA of trading business increased more than 100%. As in Q4 of last year, we have the loss of THB 420 million. In Q1, it's THB 1.7 billion positive because of more margin from THB 0.03 to THB 0.07 per liter, the recognition of mark-to-market. For the sales volume of trading in Q1, it's down by 3% mainly from the import of crude oil is down. Year-on-year, the EBITDA of trading dropped by 65% from THB 4,800 to THB 1,600. So vice versa, just before, in Q1, Q-on-Q margin increased. But now here, it's down by 50%. So that's because of the hedging and margin per unit is down. But for the sales volume year-on-year, it's up by 3%, mainly from the crude oil and the refined product and the LNG out-out activity. To the balance sheet, the assets of PTT Group is up by 5% from THB 3.4 trillion to THB 3.6 trillion. Breaking down cash and short-term investment increased by THB 60 million. AR and other current increase by THB 55 billion because of the inventory and the AR -- other AR also increased due to the receivable from the oil fund other than noncurrent asset increased by THB 34 billion because of more investments in the joint ventures, the discrepancies of the conversion of the FX from Thai Oil. For the PPE, it's increased by THB 33 billion from the asset of G1 and G2/61 of PTTEP, CFP project of Thai Oil. Liability. Loan increased by THB 9.9 billion from the increased AP and the long-term loan because we issued the debentures and we take loans from financial institutions of GPSC and the discrepancy of balance sheet conversion. For total equity, it increased by THB 83 billion according to the performance of Q1 with net profit of THB 29 billion. For the NCI, it's increased by THB 26 billion from the more income from the subsidiaries. Our key financial ratios, net debt to EBITDA and net debt to equity is down because net debt is down while EBITDA and equity is increasing. For the cash flow of PTT in Q1, beginning we have the cash of THB 417 billion. Free cash flow THB 58 billion. From the operation, it's THB 86 billion. For the cash going out because of investing, that's THB 28 billion. From the investment of PTTEP for G1 and G2/61 S1 Zawtika projects. For PTT's investment, top investment and OR's investment. So that's the cash for investment projects. For the financing that's THB 8.5 billion, mainly for the financing cost. And the cash to buy back as fixed shares, resulting in the increase of cash of THB 62 billion, ending at THB 479 billion. And as of 31st of March, we have cash and short term of THB 409 billion.

Okay. The CFO has reported in detail the performance may I now talk about key activities in Q1, starting with what I would divide into hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon key highlights include PTTEP, which has successfully ramped up the G1/61 project increase were doubled from 400 to 800 million cubic feet per day ahead of plan, resulting in more gas supply and therefore, reinforcing Thailand's national energy security, PTT LNG has jointly invested with EGAT as you've read in the news for the LNG. Receiving terminal number 2, we have already named it LMPT 2, we already signed the MOU on 15th March. The maximum will be -- of investment will be 16%. Another highlight is about Euro 5 refinery IRPC's project. Its ultraclean CO and HFD for unit of Thai or COD has started. So we can produce Euro 5 resulting in more competitiveness as well as responding to environmental policy for non-hydrocarbon segment, Future Energy and beyond. Avaada energy in India, in which GPSC holds 43% acquired more project. It has one bit of solar projects in India. And acquiring more capacity, totaling 3,299 megawatts. And additionally, NP Co, we hold 51%. So that's battery modules for EV energy storage. Lithium ion batteries have been delivered to the market. The initial capacity of 2 gigawatt hour per year. So this is encouraging progress. Let's take a look at upcoming projects in 2024. Many projects -- for example, on the hydrocarbon front, the fifth pipeline, Phase I and Phase III completed. Phase II is under construction. COD is due 2024 this year. It shall connect, it shall reinforce security of transmission from east to west. Gas separation plant #7, which will replace GSP number one and we have started 30 years ago. This project -- the capacity is more or less the same at 460 million cubic feet per day using CO2 management technology. The emissions cut will be better. And this -- what the COD is expected in 2024, Clean Fuel Project of Thai Oil gradually completed as unit system, starting with '24 or '25 incrementally, first Euro 5, 1st for nonhydro carbon aspect, future energy and beyond GPSC, the solar farm project in the COD according to plan and within 2024, and additional 611 megawatts shall come online and offshore wind farm in Taiwan, which is in the testing period to energize, COD will be in the latter half of this year. Now maintenance plan for PTT GSP. Turnaround is due GSP 1, 12 days in Q3. GSP 5, 47 days. So turned down only half, not all during Q1, Q2, GSP 6 shut down 50% as well in Q3. Petrochem and refineries do see Olefins major turnaround, 60-day polymer here in the high density, low density in the range of 10 to 30 days, so not considerably this year. Guidance. In terms of economic and business outlook for 2024, global economy. I think analysts you have all information you need, global GDP from IMF forecast and for Thailand, there will be stimulus packages in multiple countries, for example, Indonesia, U.S. and Russia, in the -- there are issues post COVID -- post pandemic. We see stimulus. There are issues with China as well. The property sector slowdown. Geopolitics remain significant. Likewise, general elections in many countries, European, U.S.A., which will affect geopolitics and international trading as well as trade protectionist measures. These continue to be challenging Thailand. You have seen Q1 numbers for the whole year. Forecast is expected to be too something percent. Many risks remain tourism, improved. Nonetheless, risk persists in terms of financial and various stress factors. We have to monitor closely now product prices looking at LNG Henry Hub in the U.S. decease. In the range of $2.5 due to a number of reasons in the U.S. show gas, conventional gas supply increase and U.S. will be key market with more LNG production anticipated in Asia. Spot LNG should be down by 20% or so to be in the range of $9.7 to $10.7, and this demand would decrease due to EU expansion from March deadline, now push back to March next year, resulting in impact on demand still risks perceived in LNG that our Middle East geopolitics. Water level in Panama Canal [indiscernible] will raise LNG transport costs. On the oil front, Dubai slightly higher year-on-year. There are factors such as geopolitics, supply OpEx still try to control and stabilized price and demands have picked up due to better economies, however, non-Opex potential more supply, particularly U.S. oil and gas, producing more and the byproducts of inflation reduction at driving production. Fuel oil price is to increase on the back of crude prices and higher power demand in the Middle East during summer. Negative factors, including refineries to come online in the latter half, DRM less -- mostly spread down. So refinery spread should decrease due to supply. Petrochem remains challenging, some improved, but mainly stabilized. For example, plastic resins in C3, polypropylene oversupply is in the horizon, benzene, higher. So Petrochem would stable -- would stay stable. And Petrochem [indiscernible], we see as stabilizing. Looking at PTT's own business outlook. PTTEP volumes higher due to domestic sales and G1/61 ramped up to 800 million stuffed and higher volume from this particular project plus its ability to maintain competitive unit costs. However, average selling price may decrease due to higher supply. For gas business, as CFO we reported earlier, softened margin due to gas price structural adjustment, at the same time, Gas cost should increase on the back of Single Pool price and LNG price tends to decrease. There are positive side, the upside, including higher domestic demand tourism sector recovery and higher supply from Gulf of Thailand gas and GSP [indiscernible] should be 89% to 90%, compatible with more supply from Gulf of Thailand. And Europe should be nearly 90%, even though shutdowns, maintenance shutdowns are planned. Downstream with improved economy, better GDP and et cetera. P&R refinery this year, GRM should be down from this year due to a lower spread. New rates should be lower with turnaround schedules, Thai Oil, plant maintenance in Q2, Petrochem stable, Aromatics price, stable. Benzene spread down. So not improving all of maybe slightly improved, power business GPSC. Domestic demand should pick up on the back of better economic growth, margin should be better on the back of downward trend of feed costs, new business, EV value chain. Demand is increasing this year, that's the upside, whereas we have to watch for intense competition from Chinese EV car makers, the lower tariffs and packages they enjoy will compete. In Thailand Life Science should maintain its sales volume and margins both in Asia and the U.S. So that's the PTT Group outlook and guidance. Thank you. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]