Public Joint Stock Company Gazprom Neft (SIBN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

August 20, 2020

Moscow Exchange RU Energy earnings 63 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Anna Sidorkina

executive
#1

Good afternoon, dear colleagues. Anna Sidorkina speaking, Investor Relations. We are yet again happy to welcome you to our conference call, which is dedicated to the company's performance results for Q2 2020 and the first half, respectively. And traditionally, let me introduce those who are in attendance at this call. We will hear comments on about financial performance from the member of the Managing Board, Deputy General Director for Economics and Finance, Alexey Yankevich. We'll hear about upstream, Igor Shkirov, who's the Head of the Planning and Efficiency Management and E&P Data Department; Nikita Anichkin, who's the Head of Economics and Investments in the Logistics, Refining and Marketing, will tell us about the downstream. And following him, during the Q&A, we're going to be joined from all of our different core divisions. And before we are to start, I would like to again remind everyone that all the comments in the presentation and statements which may be made in the course of today's conference call may and will contain various outlook statements about the financial and operational Gazprom Neft's performance. And all the statements, except the actual facts, may be deemed as those of an outlook nature, which are the statements about the company's future expectations based upon the current situation and various executive assumptions, taking into account known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may lead to the fact that the actual results and performance indicators may be materially different from the ones that may have been announced during today's conference. So thank you very much. And now let me pass the floor to Alexey Yankevich.

Alexey Yankevich

executive
#2

Dear, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our quarterly conference call. Today, we are presenting to you the results of Gazprom Neft's performance in Q2 and the first half of 2020. But I shall begin by saying that we continue to live within pandemic environment but, at the same time, try to do our best to be more efficient and effective with the utmost care of our employees, contractors and our communities. We continue to work on our antivirus program, trying to resist the COVID-19, which definitely meant social distancing, regular testing, extending the time frame for the regular shifts and many other measures as well as for our partners and customers and clients. We also have testing, trying to help people to maintain proper distancing, also broadening, where it's functioning, available for the contactless payments. And as far as the communities were concerned, the health care professionals were in our focus. And so the comprehensive program that Gazprom Neft continued in support of the health care professionals also went on. We provided the volunteers with free motor fuels, the ones who fought against the pandemic, we issued more than 1,600 cars for free filling. We also extended help to the regions in combating this coronavirus infection. And let me now pass over to our operational and economic results. Certainly, Q2, as I've, I think, mentioned when we were releasing our Q1 performance, it was not less complex. We all are aware that the pinnacle of the crisis and the oil price decline took place in the second quarter, in April. So it was difficult to expect any wonders during Q2. But irrespective of it, we are demonstrating the company's ability to survive the crisis. And what's important that we've been able to achieve the net positive profit, which in Q2 was RUB 22 billion against the losses in Q1. But overall, in the crude result, we've been able to come up with a net profit in H1, which is not really big, but it creates the foundation for the net profit to be further generated in Q3 and 4 and towards the end of 2020 for the full year. So the adjusted EBITDA was RUB 182 billion. Production of hydrocarbons, speaking about the full half year, grew by 1 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 24% in refining, and we slightly went down here, and it's because of the scheduled maintenance and the overall weaker demand because of the pandemic. Now in as far as the quarter-on-quarter results are concerned, like I said, the positive net profit against the loss in the first quarter, the output going southward, that was to be expected because of entering into the OPEC+ agreement. And refining declined, primarily because of the demand being weaker and, most important, because of the scheduled maintenance that I am going to say a few more words about later. So with that, let me pass the floor over to our colleagues, and we will start traditionally with E&P, and then we'll hear about refining and marketing. And then I will finish off giving you the overview about the finance.

Igor Shkirov

executive
#3

Igor Shkirov now speaking. Yes, good afternoon. From the point of view of E&P, we are continuing establishing partnership and diversifying the risks within our portfolio. With respect to all of the resources that are currently being produced and where we have a high subsurface risk, we're not alone. We're creating partnership in the first half of 2020. We set up a partnership with Shell to develop [ Pukhutsyayakhsky ] field where there is still some big subsurface uncertainty in terms of the tight reserves. We created a joint venture with LUKOIL and Tatneft to develop the Bazhenov Formation together with Zarubezhneft. So in the first half 2020, we are receiving rights for the new 3 acreages and the auctions took place last year. But nevertheless, that produced us additional 90 million tonnes, which is the aggregate incremental growth. And as far as the production of oil is concerned, in the first half 2019, we grew by 24%, primarily because of new projects. If we compare quarter-on-quarter, I mean, the first quarter 2020, so respectively, we went down like many oil companies, and the reduction was 4%. Now in terms of the OpExes, we keep them up at the level of last year. So generally, I mean, taking into account the additional expenditures and the overall trend basically pushes them down. We actually work with the OpExes in terms of the recovery of liquids as well as various optimization work. So we are being -- we are remaining quite active in terms of the quotas and we are very much focused in terms of what we can do. The next slide demonstrates that we continue to actively invest time and money into raising level of technology in our exploration with a very strong focus upon such things, and not just a standard approach to technology application but the technology of organizing our operations, and specifically, we are developing the cluster drilling well construction methodology. And as far as the shale oil is concerned, we are drilling down a certain number of wells. We do a conductor section with one rig, and then we continue. And that basically requires no additional spending into the technology of the drilling but overall creates a very good outcome in terms of application of this particular technology, which is a large-scale of drilling that really amasses some good results. In terms of the Zapadno-Zima (sic) [ Zapadno-Zimny ], and overall, the Zima project never stops surprising us. Apart from this year producing 1 million tonne from the [ Zhagrin ], this anchor acreage in this project, we continue doing exploration, and effectively, we continue to grow high effective reserves. The total 5-year one in terms of recoverable grew almost fourfold. So this year, we did the fracking and exploration which also turned out to be quite successful in terms of growing additional resources. Next slide is about utilization, which is an important factor. We are very much going for it. And here is the example of the innovative approach which enables us to do it quite successfully because the main production comes from the East-Messoyakha. But thanks to the fact that the subsurface conditions created to create a very good quality underground gas storage at the East-Messoyakha, we were able to come up with a very good, effective way to utilize it by back-injectioning into the underground that we started this year. The next slide demonstrates our priority for safety precautions because I'm sure that you've previously been able to see that Gazprom Neft provided very serious help in localizing the leaks in the Krasnoyarsky. And there's a key lesson, and the conclusion, in our case, which is about the speed and [ readiness ] to get mobilized because within 24 hours, we were able to come out fully with a fully mobilized, technical team, which demonstrates our higher level of preparedness in as far as liquidation of any consequences in our fields may be concerned. I mean apart from the fact that we are quite mindful about how to prevent it, but we've been able to demonstrate that in case something happens, we are fully prepared. Thank you very much.

Nikita Anichkin

executive
#4

Dear colleagues, good afternoon. Let me introduce your attention to the review of the logistics, refining and marketing performance in H1 2020. In terms of the environment for the downstream, as you know, wasn't very favorable, but despite the Brent going down in terms of price and the refined product prices going down as well as the tax burden going up, reduced our netback, and we have to work below the export parity. But it's important to note here that even in such conditions, downstream continued to upgrade its refineries and build the modern technology, also introducing the modern digital system because we believe that such an approach would enable us to really come out with kind of a basket that the market is requiring, which is particularly important in the current environment. A few words about the refining indicators, the refining volume compared to H1 2019 went down by 2.5%. The serious effect was at the Moscow refinery, which is supplying the regions which suffered from the pandemic most, which is Moscow. But it's important to note as well that because of the diversification and flexibility, the reduction of refining volumes is much less than the demand going down because of the pandemic, which is a good result. Thanks to us being able to optimize our planning. It is also important to note that we have been able to increase the depth of refining and started to produce the lighter products by 1.3 percentage points. Well, principally, the media covered it. An important event was the EURO+ production that was started at the Moscow refinery because it enabled us to make redundant the 5 outdated installations and raise our production up by about 40%, also reducing the environmental impact, which is extremely important as well. Apart from it, commissioning into operation the EURO+ production would enable us to switch into the 4 years in between maintenance period, which will definitely improve the efficiency of refining in the future periods. Speaking about the B2B segment, it is worthwhile noting here such an important fact that despite the pandemic effect and the overall reduction of demand, the company in H1 2020 was able to grow its market share within all of the premium channels and programs. For example, in bunkering, the market share compared to the similar period in 2019 grew by 6 percentage points. Within the Russian market of the premium bitumens, Gazprom Neft continues to retain an undoubted lead there. We also continued to grow the premium volumes. In the first place, we've been able to achieve such a position by developing our own very broad scientific technical base, which we also continue to improve, as well as the destinations of export bitumen deliveries expands. Also, Gazprom Neft grew its share in the Russian jet market fuel. We should also mention the launch of the LIS, which is the single lab system which enables online to analyze the quality of the jet fuel. Separately, I'd like to note a few words about the retail network, an important event here that the Gazprom Neft went out to introduce modern technologies for energy efficiencies, modernizing the equipment at more than 600 of its retail location, which enabled us to raise our level of energy efficiency by 50%. And concluding the topic of the development of our retail marketing, I would like to say a few words about the AZC -- retail GO (sic) [ AZC.GO ] application. In addition to what Alexey Yankevich said, this is an application, which was developed within the company that not only supports the global trend towards digitalization in terms of the interaction with the retail consumers but, what is even more important, enables us and creates the possibility for a very safe, remote payment for fueling at a retail location, which is a very important aspect. And apart from it, today, this application creates a full hub of services and ecosystem, which resolves such traditional things as payment for fueling online, accumulating bonuses, paying for various traffic fines and many, many others. So basically, this is it. Thank you very much for your attention.

Alexey Yankevich

executive
#5

Yes. So ladies and gentlemen, going back to the financial results. As I have noted, an important basic event was that we have achieved a positive net profit, which became possible, thanks to the ruble exchange rate recovering as well as the suspension of the one-off factor effects that took place in the first quarter and our ability to maintain our financial performance despite the decline, which led us in enjoying in second quarter the positive net profit in terms of the overall H1 results. As far as the dynamics are concerned, we should definitely take a better look at it in the overall analysis. But as far as the comparison between the H1 last year and H1 this year is concerned, the basic effect comes from the pricing because overall, more than RUB 200 billion that produced in terms of the negative effect. But apart from it, there is also OPEC+ because all of the companies had to reduce their production which affected the financial outcome, particularly in May, June when production started recovering. Respectively, a certain need to hold back our refining volumes and lower sales because the demand went down and the overall reduction, as you may recall, occurred in April, May. So here, one may say right now that the market is recovering and reaching its pre-crisis level. But of course, in the second quarter H1, that was something that was still being left -- felt, sorry. But apart from it, a number of activities have been undertaken, I mean, optimizing our operations as well as various sales and marketing channels and the overall assortment as well as cost optimization, which produced, in total, let's say, a positive effect by RUB 20 billion in the first half. But there was also a one-off positive factor as the maintenance schedule, the volume of which was lower than in H1 last year. Now looking at it through quarter-on-quarter position, the environment was not also -- it was not too sure, then positive. And I should say that the prices more strongly went down in Q2. Well, in Q1 because of this very dramatic downward dynamics, there were a lot of one-off factors in reevaluating the cost of the reserves and various other effects related to the cost of the letter where principally speaking, the results of Q1 would have been worse if the stand-alone prices would have maintained the stable level which, equal to the average oil price in Q1, is basically -- if it wouldn't change but remains at the same level, the results would have been much better because when price domestically plummets, then those one-off effects in Q2 have partially turned around because the price started recovering. And so, altogether, the prices, the exchange rate and the taxes, now they have produced this neutrally positive effect. So principally speaking, the overall results being lower in Q2 have been conditioned by the volume factors, which is the limitations of production because of the OPEC+ as well as the refining and marketing, volumes turning out to be lower because of this weaker demand in the domestic market as a result of the pandemic during the more difficult months of April and May. If we compare Q2 to Q1, the maintenance factor here was negative because there were more maintenance work being done at the YANOS and Moscow refinery. And specifically because the profit margin was very low throughout the first and throughout the whole of the second quarter, then all of the efforts aimed at the efficiency improvement were a little bit limited in both the segments and that is why the results of this efficiency in value was not very strong. So the dynamics was more stable in Q2 compared to Q1, but there is still a little bit of a slip-down because of various volume affected. The next slide, I suppose this is the most interesting for you, which is about CapEx. And I think that I should try and take the words out of your mind, so to say. We see these questions are coming, the CapEx dynamics. At first glance, it is somewhat not rational. Maybe under the current environment, the companies which grow their CapEx would seem strange, but you need to take into account that the bigger part of the decisions were made last year. And of course, nobody expected that the environment would demonstrate such negativism in the first half of this year. And secondly, there have been a number of projects, which, to us, are of strategic importance. And they turned out to be quite lucrative even under more conservative conditions compared to what we actually are observing right now because even against $25 per barrel, all of those projects were profitable. And some of them, principally speaking, do carry a little bit more CapEx than we expected because of a number of objectives, circumstances in the first place. This is the winter cluster. The Zima project, and my colleague previously mentioned it, this is a very major discovery for us and a very big exploration, positive exploration surprise to us. And that field is transforming into quite a flagship, a very big greenfield out of a medium-sized one. And this is a top 3 one, if not within top 2, in terms of the clusters that we measure by annual output. So in the future, this is really very promising greenfield that we are investing into and the payback in it is really outstanding against even low oil prices. And that is why we are actively developing it. And so you can see that is why there is this material CapEx related to it. As far as Tazovskoye and Samburgskoye fields are concerned, you can see here a certain growth because as you may recall, in our program, in our plans, we have this joint venture and the deal was expected to take place. As a result of which, we were supposed to fund the development of this particular field on a parity basis with our partner. Moreover, it would have been -- being paid for share in -- if the assets would have been sold, but the deal didn't take place, unfortunately. So this is the field that we are funding on our own. But again, it is a profitable one. We tested it under different scenarios, even against the low-price scenarios, so it doesn't really make any sense to put it on hold. So we are carrying forward. But as far as the partnerships are concerned, what we are seeing right now, of course, Shell exited it, but that coincided, I suppose, with many other circumstances. And so the key decisions with respect to that particular deal were made during the pinnacle of the crisis and, of course, it was quite rational on the part of Shell to come up with this particular decision to exit because the external environment, it is recurring. And we do see the improvement in the global markets and we also do ascertain that the company and its potential partners are looking at it in a different way. We do feel a very keen interest towards a greater number of our assets, and so the work that we do to create partnership would not be standing still within this particular cluster of fields or others. Future partnerships are quite possible. So we would compensate for this effect in the future. We do see this as a temporary thing in terms of the CapEx growing, but I'm definite that in the future, this partnership that didn't take place is something that we'd definitely compensate for. But we also have the oil fringes project, which we decided to develop actively even despite such a state of the market as we remember, and so the price hasn't yet recovered fully. But we also acknowledge that this is a very profitable group of projects. These are the projects with very short investment cycle, within about 3 years, and we are able to come up with the positive free cash flow because in the production projects that would extend up to 5 years, if not more, so the return period is quite short and the profitability is quite stable. And we also have a series of infrastructure in place. So we do think that one should run this project irrespective of the crisis. So the way it happened that the H1 turned out to be very active in terms of the existence of quite a number of strategic projects to us, which we deemed not to be a good thing to delay because that would have created quite a big negative impact to our NPV because we had some very good financial cushion created both in liquidity and financial stability. So overall, it is much more profitable for the company to continue these projects while, at the same time, take on more weighted and well-balanced economic decisions. In as far as the CapEx optimization is concerned, in the subsequent quarter, so as not to run down these projects, yes, of course, we would have been in a liquidity crisis without any cash reserves. We definitely would have had to do that. And any other company would have gone for that, but we had an opportunity, could afford principally not to lose out our NPV and do the optimization within the year. But in as far as other projects are concerned, and in the subsequent quarters, when one won't have to do any urgent mobilization and we won't be partnering with our contractors, we would be keeping the family going on. So you can see the quarterly dynamics, you can see that during Q1, Q2 as opposed to the first half of the year, less saturated where this project was growing. But in terms of the quarterly dynamics, Q1 to Q2 in 2020, we do see that they are lower than the Q3, Q4, meaning the last quarters of the last year. But on top of it, we're expecting that the Q3 and Q4 this year is when we are going to achieve a certain optimization because our overall target to reduce our CapEx with respect to the previous targets by 20% onward is what we'll be able to demonstrate to you, and so we will just do it. And so I do believe that in Q3, Q4, you will see this effect. So that is a bit of a long comment, but I'm just hoping that, that would alleviate quite a few questions that you otherwise might have had. The next slide, free cash flow. All right. Yes, principally, that basically is the part of what I've previously mentioned. We intentionally decided to act this way because we ended up having with negative cash flow because we were aware of it, but we do believe that to achieve positive free cash flow at any cost would mean really losing material part of your NPV because that otherwise would create a lot of damage to the shareholders. So that we intentionally went for the negative free cash flow in the first half, but we were very well aware that we were able to achieve positive free cash flow throughout the full year. And I would guarantee that in Q3, Q4, you will see positive trend as far as this is concerned. For example, we already can notice that principally speaking, the net debt, for example, if you take a look in July, August, it is already going down. If you take out the dividend effect that we paid in June, then throughout the July month, the beginning of the third quarter, was where the free cash flow was positive. Therefore, principally speaking, we do expect that towards the end of the year, we will have this very much in the positive. Next slide, and I will conclude my presentation with the traditional picture about our debt portfolio. Well, first of all, we are maintaining very good financial stability. And this is being acknowledged by the leading rating agencies, which kept our rating at a high level, and we similarly continue to work optimizing our credit portfolio. We've increased the average maturity from 18 to 36, and the interest rate is what we are able to reduce, just trying to make the most out of the market environment because the key rate is being reduced by the Central Bank, and so we are moving also our credit portfolio rate, which went down to 5.38% as of June 30, 2020. So let me finish my part of the presentation with that. And I would like to underscore it again that first of all, the company is coming out of the crisis, we are entering into a positive free cash flow -- sorry, into a positive net profit. We are maintaining our strong commitment for interim dividends. This is something that I would mention later and leaving it to maybe Q&A part of our conference call. Second thing, I would call upon you, so to say, to take our CapEx dynamics with understanding. Let it not frighten you because this is really the result of a certain movement that we do throughout the projects. We do it intentionally. We're very well aware of our financial situation, and we are quite cognizant of the liquidity cushion that we have. We do understand quite clearly how, in the future, we'll be able to optimize our investment program so as to be able to fit into not growing our debt on the one hand but, on the other hand, to be 100% true to our commitments in terms of the dividend payments. And so you may rest assured that the CapEx dynamic is not going to really pay up on you in an [ integrative ] way as shareholders in terms of dividend payments. This is very much safeguarded. And so this CapEx dynamics should be considered as our internal optimization and the undoubted function within this optimization is the maximum value growth of the company and, respectively, its shareholder value. So let me finish with that, and we're now ready to answer your questions.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#6

[Audio Gap] of the experimental excess profits tax. And as I understand it, a fair amount of that is supposedly to come from 2 state-owned companies, Rosneft and Gazprom Neft. First, could you tell us how much the Ministry of Finance is asking from Gazprom Neft? And second, what is -- how do you judge the likelihood that you will actually have to pay it?

Alexey Yankevich

executive
#7

[Foreign Language] So I believe that this is not really the way this question should be phrased because in Russia, it doesn't really work like having MinFin ask somebody to do something and some companies will feel obliged to pay. No, that doesn't work that way because we've got a tax code. And so well, actually the way it should actually be considered that the Ministry of Finance came out with its draft law to change the tax code. So in the meantime, this is just a proposition from the Ministry of Finance. So what I would like to add is that we do think that the windfall profit tax is a good promising system for the greenfields, which doesn't have any alternative. So looking at it through the greenfield project, that was not an experiment. This is something one should emphasize. There has been an experiment in place, which continues as far as brownfields are concerned. But for greenfield, that was not an experiment, that was a transition from one system, which was about to cease its existence like subsidizing export duties, which was about to be stopped because of one particular reason: because a tax maneuver was being undertaken within which the system simply couldn't continue to exist or otherwise, one should have come up with a totally different system or continue using the system, which was ready and in place, which was the windfall profit tax. And so then it was a common decision. Ministry of Finance, principally speaking, was the agency that supported the decision to transit the greenfields into the windfall property tax, understanding that together with the tax maneuver, that was a proper decision for the whole country. So that was not an experiment. But I should say, again, that we believe this system still to be quite a promising one. But simultaneously, I would grant you, this is still a young system and quite possibly, it requires some additional fine-tuning. And so with this in mind, we are ready to engage in a dialogue with the government and the Ministry of Finance. We've always been saying this. And as far as the Ministry of Finance propositions are concerned, we are not accepting it. And we've been quite outspoken in terms of what we think as oil companies, and we signed a respective letter. And so currently, the discussion is going to be raised to a higher level. And so we do hope that, together with the government, we've been able to arrive at a certain compromise. So I'm practically sure that a proper decision will be found. So in the meantime, this is just the Ministry of Finance idea that the companies are adamantly against.

Operator

operator
#8

[Foreign Language] Alexander Burgansky, Renaissance Capital.

Alexander Burgansky

analyst
#9

[Foreign Language] Two questions. First of all, you reported today about your oil production falling down by 3.8% in Q1 this year. While overall throughout Russia, the oil production decline amounted to about 11%. Could you give us an explanation as to what made it possible for you to not allow your production to decline like in the rest of the country? And a related question to this one. Could you mention the quota for your production that you have or which you had in Q2? Or if it is more convenient, tell us what's your quota for oil production is going to be for August. My second question about -- is about dividends. Could you mention the net profit figure in second quarter and H1 that the company is going to have on the basis of which you're going to estimate your dividend payment covering H1?

Alexey Yankevich

executive
#10

[Foreign Language] Thank you very much for your 2 questions. So first, as far as the production is concerned. Look, you see the perimeter that is being defined as the subject for the regulation within the OPEC+ and the perimeter that is being administered in the report. These are 2 different notions. So it is difficult to give a straightforward calculation because there are certain peculiarities in both of them, and there are quite a few, so it's not really possible to enumerate all of them, first. And second, if we look at the production of liquids, there is also the gas condensate that is not reflected in the quota. So again, it won't work this way in a straightforward fashion. As far as the quotas are concerned, principally speaking, this is the Ministry of Energy as the government agency, which administers the production and is quite agile in managing this in between different companies. So I'm not in a position to give you a quota for a month and this is the information that is not being published anywhere openly. So this is the government agency's responsibility. And so you should direct your question to the Ministry. And now as far as the accounting peculiarities are concerned, we should really discuss it separately. Again, this is going to be quite cumbersome to give you an explanation in a consequential translation, so we will be able to comment on this to you separately. So that was as far as production is concerned. So I will separately answer your second part of the question. And now as far as the question about the dividends was concerned. First of all, I do confirm that we intend to do certain adjustments when estimating our profit for the purpose of paying dividends. And this is what I mentioned during Q1 performance update. That applies to the nonmonetary line items, such as the asset loss of value, which is related to the oil price decline and which have this long-term nature to them. As far as the exchange rate differences are concerned, I mentioned it in the very beginning that these things work both ways. So usually, we never did any adjustment neither upwards or downwards. But in any case, we are going to do our best and make the dividends look decent. And as far as H1 is concerned, we do see, even if we do certain adjustments for the loss of value of the assets in some one-off line items, the net profit for H1 is still going to be not very big. And all the companies -- let's be honest, some of the companies were not able to earn any profits as a result of H1 at all. So this is quite a common situation, and unfortunately, we're not able to really push ourselves out of the benchmark group. That is why what I would like to say is that by considering payment of not huge dividends, like symbolic ones for the first half year, we're also saying that it's going to be more correct to do it based on just over the 9 months because primarily all of the investors and all of the investment funds, they do take into account the dividends back to the record day, and because of record day for 9 months dividend also is going to take place this year or we'll be in a position to declare the dividends and attribute them to the results of this year. And in this way, this will look as a much more sizable amount of dividend, specifically for this year, attributable to this year specifically. So we do believe that it's going to be more correct to do it for 9 months, so that the transactional cost, at least for the payment of dividends, couldn't be compared to the amount of dividends, which is going to be particularly important for those who own our stock through the ADR programs. And so because of such technical considerations, we do believe that rather than paying a symbolic dividend for 6 months, it would be better to pay it for 9 months, so that the dividends that the shareholder is going to enjoy this year and the second part, I mean, to be really looking quite sizable and normal. But so as to give you some sort of guidance, to avoid us looking that we are trying to stay away from telling you how much is going to be for the H1, the Interfax guidance that was published as a forecast, in relationship to the size of our dividends, so stating it in between RUB 1 to RUB 3, the average of RUB 2, principally speaking, does conform to our intentions. So as a guidance, you definitely may rely upon it. But generally speaking, we're going to go for the 9 months dividend payment so as to make the amount payable to look decent and we will try and do as much as possible in terms of whatever adjustments we can go for. We will definitely do that but also based upon our financial status towards at the end of the year. And I do very much hope that, first of all, considering our intention to do the adjustments, and secondly, the market and the prices recovering, for the period of 9 months, we'll be in a position to declare normal dividends. So that is our attitude towards this issue. And as far as the half year dividends are concerned, as a minimum, the consensus forecast by Interfax is what we're going to justify.

Operator

operator
#11

[Foreign Language] Olga Danilenko, Prosperity.

Olgy Danilenko

analyst
#12

[Foreign Language] There are 2 questions. The first one is about the capital expenditure. Alexey, you gave us quite a lot of details about the CapEx that you had in the first half of 2020. Could you also quote any of your expectations with respect to the capital extension until the end of 2020? Do you plan any additional optimization? Well, because you've mentioned that you plan to reach the positive free cash flow but, at the same time, maintain the same level of capital expenditure. That was my first question. And the second question possibly, you might have colleagues from your trading division possibly or from your downstream department who would be in a position to answer my second question, which is the oil prices basically have recovered to the level of almost $45 per barrel, demonstrating stability over the past few months. But as far as the refined products are concerned, for example, the crack spread with respect to the lighter products, it has really changed strongly, and it is not recovering now. I mean it is recovering but then very, very slowly. So what is your expectation, specifically in as far as the profitability in refining is concerned, against what kind of circumstances we should expect to see any adjustments? To what extent do you see the overstocking taking place within the certain groups of refined products in terms of what might one expect towards the end of the year?

Alexey Yankevich

executive
#13

[Foreign Language] Thank you very much for your question. As far as the CapEx part of the 2 questions is concerned, it is difficult to add anything additional because we are trying to avoid to give any forward-looking statements. So just generalizing, I would say that we expect the Q and 4 -- the third quarter and fourth quarter to be lower because of the main optimization we do expect in the course of the fourth quarter because all of the work and optimization, basically, would be effective in the subsequent quarters. You should understand it quite well, to stop the investment process is always difficult because there are teams of people, there are rigs, there are seismic people who are out there, there are contractual obligations. So the March crisis breakout, basically, it was difficult to do anything in April already with respect to the second quarter. So it is -- these are the quarters, the third and the fourth, that we expect to be lower. On top of it, we have a target to achieve the positive free cash flow and also maintain our target to optimize 20% with respect to our original business plan. So -- and as far as CapEx is concerned, that is what I can respond with. As far as the crack spreads are concerned, let me pass the floor over to Sergei Vakulenko who's the head of our strategic stream, and he will comment on that.

Sergei Vakulenko

executive
#14

[Foreign Language] Well, I can tell you the story of what happened in the refining markets. When in April, there's enormous surplus of oil appeared in the market, part of it went into the oil stocks, while part of it also was being bought by the refineries so as to be processed and in order to produce the refined products, which was more than what they could sell because of a number of considerations. First of all, they bought the oil, which dramatically went down in price. And the second reason was that the refineries reduced their refining runs, but nobody wanted to stop the installations operating. So this refined product overstocking did occur also in the supply chain, in the storage systems. And so this overhang currently continues to exert its pressure on the market. So respectively, the recovery has been happening, following a certain medium trajectory. The aviation market hasn't recovered yet. The United States, which continues to remain the biggest consumer, is still running through the eye of the storm, I mean through the pandemic storm. And so the crack spreads fell, and that was to be expected with the kind of supply and demand and the pricing situation. So respectively, for some time, the global economy and the refining industry will have to go as they are in order to eat through this surplus stock of refined product. And currently, the crack spreads are going to continue balancing at a low level. I am not in a position to give you any specific forecast rather than just give you an explanation where did it all come from. So right now, the refining runs have gotten extended. And this surplus gradually is being digested. And I would say that the market may go back to its normal situation maybe within the next 6 months.

Operator

operator
#15

[Foreign Language] Mitch Jennings, Sova Capital.

Mitchell Jennings

analyst
#16

A quick question. There was a story a while back about returning some of the overpaid crude export duties from last year. Did you have any of those returned in the second quarter? Or was it in the first quarter? And if you could provide any numbers on that, that would be great.

Alexey Yankevich

executive
#17

[Foreign Language] Thank you very much for your question. Yes, this whole issue was fully regulated in the first quarter this year. All of the payments have been done. It took place this year in terms of cash component of it. But so that you could correctly read our reports as well as the reports from other companies, I simply know that different companies in their financial reporting differently interpreted these particular transactions. We recorded it right there and then as us not having to pay these dues because we're very confident that we were right. So we accrued this negative reserve last year, and we reflected last year the proper amount of the duty simply as an advanced payment, as the receivables due to us from the customers towards the end of last year. So in Q1, this year, it didn't go through our P&L. It went as us settling our payments with the customers. But the cost in the P&L, we put together as if there was no dispute like this last year simply because we were very sure about the way it would all turn out. Some of the companies deemed it and recorded it, this repay duty, at their financial result, as an additional profit in Q1 or H1 2020. We didn't do it this year. We did it last year.

Operator

operator
#18

[Foreign Language]

Anna Sidorkina

executive
#19

[Foreign Language] Dear ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for participating in our conference call. If there are any questions left unanswered, as is the usual case, get in touch with Investor Relations. Forward your questions to us, we will do our best to reply to all of them. And thanks very much to the management of the company for a very well-prepared presentation. So we wish you all the best and hear you again in the future. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]

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