Publicis Groupe S.A. (PUB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the first half 2021 results presentation of Publicis Groupe with Arthur Sadoun, Chairman and CEO. Today's conference is being recorded. And at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Arthur Sadoun. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Simon. Bonjour, and welcome to the Publicis Groupe First Half 2021 Call. I am Arthur Sadoun, and I'm here in Paris with our CFO, Michel-Alain Proch; and our Secretary General, Anne-Gabrielle Heilbronner. Steve King, COO of Publicis Groupe, is also joining but from London. As usual, we will take all of your questions together after the presentation. Alessandra Girolami is also here and will be available to take all of your questions offline after this session. I will start this call by sharing our H1 results, then Michel-Alain will take us through the details of our numbers. After that, I will conclude on how the strength of our model are positioning our clients, our operation and our people for the long term. Finally, we will take all of your questions with the [ interior director ]. But before we start, please take a look and read the disclaimer, which is an important legal matter. Okay, let's dive into the presentation. Q2 2020 was the toughest quarter ever for our industries with more than half of the global population in lockdown. Since then, we have stood strong in the face of the pandemic and come through for our people and for our clients. One year later, in H1 2021, we are delivering a strong performance, leading to a full recovery across all of our operations. We actually exceeded 2019 levels on all KPIs and are in position to upgrade our 2021 guidance. After a decline in revenue of 8% in H1 2020, we fully recovered in H1 2021 with plus 9.7% organic growth as we significantly improved all of our financial ratios. Came to -- Q2 came well ahead of our expectations, driven actually by 2 main factors: first, a global context characterized by mass reopening in Europe and a continued uplift in the U.S. economy, leading to an increase in client confidence; second, the strength of our model, which allowed us to continue to capture the shift in our client investments through our data management, digital media, DTC and commerce in general. This is visible in the strong performance of Epsilon, PMX and Sapient. Let me now take you through the 3 highlights of our numbers, starting with organic growth where we delivered plus 17.1% in Q2, more than recovering versus minus 13% in Q2 last year. In the U.S., we saw a new acceleration with Q2 organic growth at plus 15.2% after a Q1 where we already outperformed our direct competitors by over 500 basis points. The demand for third-party data management and direct-to-consumer capabilities was particularly high during this period, which led to strong organic growth for both Epsilon and Publicis Sapient, which delivered plus 31.1% and plus 27%, respectively. We saw the same kind of growth trend in digital media with PMX, which boost the performance of our media operation overall. Our health operation recorded double-digit growth for the fifth quarter in a row. Creative activities were actually positive, showing sequential improvement after being flat in Q1. It is important to note that in the U.S., we actually grew by 7% over 2019. Once again, we have shown the strength of our model in the country where it is the most advanced. Asia also accelerated this quarter with plus 13.6% organic growth versus minus 5.7% in Q2 last year. Our activities in China were up 8% organically, while the performance in India was remarkable in the context of the devastating third wave of the virus with a growth at plus 35.4%. Compared to 2019, Asia also grew by 7% over the quarter. In Europe, our activities rebounded from a low base. Overall, the region recovered most of the value lost in 2020 with organic growth at plus 23%, mirroring the progressive lifting of the lockdowns. In France, all of our activities bounced back strongly. Net revenue was up 30.6% organically and actually up 70 -- 67.7%, including MediaTransports and the Drugstore restaurants, which was closed last year. Germany accelerated this quarter with plus 9.6% organic growth. And our U.K. operation returned to positive growth in Q2 at plus 10% organic. The second highlight is our continued strong financial in H1. Our operating margin is at plus 16.5%. This is the highest ever for the group in the first half period, an improvement of 350 basis points versus 2020 and actually 150 basis points versus 2019. It is important to note that this margin level is one of a kind as we benefited from both a very lean cost base entering 2021 and a strong ramp-up in revenue. As a consequence, our headline EPS is up 27% and reached EUR 2.23. Actually, versus 2019, it is up 13%. Also, our free cash flow before working capital reached EUR 605 million, giving us a comfortable advance on reaching our initial EUR 1.2 billion target for the year-end. As a result, our net debt continued to improve and reached EUR 1.6 billion on average at the end of June. The third highlight is our new business performance in what will be a very busy year on that front. In H1, we came first in the new business ranking. After a strong run of win in Q1 with Samsung in the U.S., L'Oréal in China, Infiniti Global, Unilever Shopper Marketing in the U.S. and AB InBev Data with Epsilon, our momentum continued in Q2. We won Stellantis Global Media, where we were playing in defense for what was formerly FCA and in offense for the PSA part of the business. We also had a good series of wins, including Lindt EMEA Media, Humana in the U.S., Vinted Media and [ LinkedIn ] Creative in the U.S. In the first part of the year, we have secured most of the very few material defensive pitches we faced, including Nestlé in the U.K. that we'll retain actually this week. Now we are entering H2 seeing a high number of offensive opportunities. But let's be clear, every pitch is a fierce battle, and we still have a lot of work to do as we look to convert some of those opportunities. I will now leave the floor to Michel-Alain before coming back to our priorities for the second half.

Thank you, Arthur. Good morning to all of you. I'm glad to be with you today. I will begin with Slide 9, which is presenting you with the evolution of the net revenue for the second quarter and first half of 2021. The group posted a net revenue of EUR 2,539 million in Q2, representing an organic growth of 17.1%. We recovered more than what we lost last year at the same period. After a minus 13% posted in Q2 2020, this represents a recovery ratio of 102% or, more simply said, that we grew organically by 2% versus 2019. Reported growth in Q2 is at plus 10.7%. There is almost no impact from acquisition and disposal this quarter again. As in Q1, there is a significant impact from foreign exchange rates, which is minus 5.5% or minus EUR 125 million, almost entirely related to the U.S. dollar. In H1, net revenue was EUR 4,931 million, representing an organic growth of 9.7%. There again, more than recovering what we lost in H1 2020. After taking into account the foreign exchange impact of minus EUR 276 million mostly due to the dollar evolution, reported growth in H1 2021 was at plus 3.3%. Let's move on to Slide 10, which is giving the dynamics of the 17.1% organic growth by geographies. First, we posted double-digit organic growth in each of our geographies. Second, 2 of our regions, North America and Asia Pac, posted strong recovery ratios, respectively, at 106% and 107%, meaning that they actually grew 6% and 7% compared to 2019. Europe is bouncing back this quarter with 23% organic growth, but not entirely recovering with a ratio of 94%. Excluding the group historic activities in France, the ratio was actually better at 97%. Middle East & Africa and Latin America both posted very strong organic growth at plus 22.8% and 15.9%, respectively, but not fully recovered from Q2 2020 decline as they remain impacted by a still difficult health situation. So let's dig deeper into the detail of the performance of North America, plus 15.1% of organic growth. This is Slide 11. The recovery ratio in the U.S. is impressive at 107% and drives the performance of the region with Canada not having fully recovered yet. Let's now focus on the U.S., which represents 58% of the group net revenue in Q2 2021 and generated an organic growth of 7% versus Q2 2019. Media grew double digit this quarter, an outstanding performance driven by a growth north of 25% at PMX, thanks to digital media. It was also the case of CJ Affiliate, which was up strongly for the second quarter in a row. Traditional media sequentially improved and grew by mid-single digits in Q2. Creative sequentially improved this quarter, posting positive growth, driven by strong performance in our production units. Publicis Sapient has strongly accelerated to 27% organic growth from 11% in Q1. The recovery ratio in Q2 is above 110%, and it demonstrates our ability to capture our clients' investments in digital transformation, and it represents a growth of 10% versus Q2 2019. Since Q3 2020, we saw Publicis Sapient pipeline building up steadily. And now it's clearly materializing into revenues, particularly in the retail segment, both food and nonfood. Epsilon posted an impressive 31% organic growth in Q2, deriving a recovery ratio like Publicis Sapient north of 110%. This growth was fueled by 2 main engines: first, digital media, which saw a strong demand like in Q1; and second, automotive that recovered from a low base in Q2 2020. Finally, Publicis Health continued to deliver a nice double-digit growth for the fifth quarter in a row. As anticipated, the strong growth cycle starts to annualize as it began in Q2 2020. Let's turn to performance in Europe on Slide 12. As I was mentioning, Europe bounced back this quarter with an organic growth of 23%. U.K., representing 9% of group net revenue in Q2, posted an organic growth of 10%, corresponding to a recovery ratio of 90%. Media performed very well, notably thanks to ramp-up in some global contracts in health, TMT and leisure and travel. Creative is also growing double digit, fueled by a strong activity in production following the lift of restrictions. Epsilon is almost doubling its size in the country. Publicis Sapient remains impacted as in Q1 by its exposure to financial sector, where we continue to experience [ cold ] predictions. We expect Publicis Sapient in the U.K. to stabilize by the end of this year, obviously, under the current sanitary conditions. France, representing 6% of group net revenue in Q2, posted a strong growth of 30.6%, excluding MediaTransport and the Drugstore, fully recovering the decline of Q2 2020. Media posted a massive growth, thanks to the ramp-up in new business signed during 2020, notably in the nonfood consumer product sector and TMT. Creative also performed well, particularly in automotive and thanks to our production activities. Finally, Publicis Sapient grew strongly due to the ramp-up of contracts signed in 2020. Germany, representing 3% of group net revenue, accelerated its growth to 9.6% in Q2 after 6% in Q1. This translates into a 6% organic growth versus Q2 2019. Growth was fueled mostly by media and production with a mix of global contract ramp-up and local wins. Finally, the rest of Europe posted a strong double-digit growth, mainly driven by Italy and Spain in media and the dynamism of Central and Eastern Europe with Czech Republic and Russia being the largest contributors. On Slide 13, let me give you a bit more color on our performance in the rest of the world. In Asia Pac, representing 10% of group net revenue in Q2, we delivered a strong performance with an organic growth of 13.6% and, more importantly, a solid 7% growth versus 2019. Performance improved in all main countries in the region. In China, we benefited from the ramp-up of new business wins, particularly in the nonfood consumer product and automotive. In India, the health situation was extremely difficult at the beginning of Q2, and it impacted sometimes, very sadly, our 18,000 Indian colleagues. The group mobilized all its resources to protect as much as possible its employees and their families with notably the setup of vaccination centers in our main Indian campuses. In that very complicated context, our employees continued to deliver services to our clients and posted an impressive double-digit growth. Simply said, we are very proud and very humbled by their resistance to the pandemic. Other countries in the region recorded a strong performance, too, notably Japan and New Zealand. In Australia, we recovered what we lost last year, thanks to a double-digit growth at Publicis Sapient and a positive performance of our media and creative activities. In Middle East & Africa, we posted 22.8% organic growth. The performance was diverse amongst countries. Recovery was more visible in Middle East, which almost fully recovered in Q2, while Africa was still impacted by the health situation. A similar picture in LatAm really, which is growing by 15.9% and represent our lowest recovery ratio at 92% with our 2 main countries in the region, Brazil and Mexico, experiencing a very unstable sanitary situation. On Slide 14, I will be quick on the organic growth by region in H1. As a result of our strong performance in the U.S. and in Asia Pac in both Q1 and Q2, the recovery ratio is 106% for these 2 regions in H1. In Europe, our recovery ratio is at 92%. But please note that excluding the impact of MediaTransport and the Drugstore, it is at 96%, corresponding to an organic growth of 9.7% in H1. Organic growth in Middle East & Africa and LatAm are, respectively, 4.3% and 12% in H1 2021, neither of them fully recovering H1 2020 decline. On Slide 15, you will find the group performance by industry verticals exactly as in Q1. This is based on an analysis of our main clients representing 92% of our net revenue and excludes MediaTransport and the Drugstore. In H1, all our industry verticals posted positive growth but leisure and travel, with notable acceleration in automotive, nonfood consumer products and retail. Even leisure and travel, still negative on the semester, did improve from the minus 25% in Q1 to plus 30% in Q2. Health continue to post strong double-digit growth, although decelerating as anticipated. TMT and food & beverage slightly accelerated from the high single digit in Q1. As we saw with Publicis Sapient in the U.K., financial sector is the only vertical that did not accelerate between Q1 and Q2 with some large retail banks having partly closed during the semester. Moving now to Page 16, our consolidated income statement. For the first half 2021, net revenue was EUR 4,931 million and EBITDA was EUR 1,052 million, up, respectively, by 3.3% and 14%. Operating margin was at EUR 815 million, representing a margin rate of 16.5%, up 350 basis points year-on-year and up by 150 basis points when comparing to 2019. I will detail in the next 2 slides the underlying mechanics of this record margin rate, which is a bit a one of a kind. Headline group net income was EUR 555 million in H1. That's an increase of 33% versus last year. Headline net financial expenses came as expected at EUR 82 million, while income taxes increased in line with our operating margin at EUR 184 million. After adding noncash items, the group net income was at EUR 414 million in H1 2021, tripling compared to 2020 and topping off 2019 by 20%. Turning now to Slide 17, providing you with the detail of our operating margin performance, improving by 380 bps at constant perimeter and FX. The main reason of such a performance is the level of our personnel costs, which only increased by 5.8% versus H1 2020 while we posted an organic growth of 9.7%. So simply said, we benefited from a better-than-expected top line, as I detailed previously, while still leveraging the personnel cost base that we adjusted in 2020 during the crisis. This improved our operating margin by 230 bps that I will detail in the next slide. The second significant impact is the reduction of our restructuring cost that declined by EUR 54 million compared to H1 2020, reaching EUR 12 million only in this semester. I will detail precisely the evolution of the other line of the P&L in the next slide, which is a bridge from the 12.7% comparable last year to the 16.5% we posted this semester. So let's begin with the 230 bps of improvement in personnel costs that I just talked about. This evolution derives from 3 different factors. First, the [ teaser ] effect between revenue and fixed personnel costs brought us a 380 bps improvement. Second, as already explained by Arthur, we are investing in our talent in many ways, but the most significant this semester is the increase in people incentive by 110 bps in order to both reward and retain. Finally, we resorted to more freelance resources by 40 bps as we saw the recovery in our top line materializing quicker than expected. Then the decrease in restructuring that I previously mentioned represent an improvement of 120 bps. Other G&A contributed 50 bps to the margin rate performance as the group was successful into containing expenses during the improved top line -- despite, I'm sorry, the improved top line. Cost of sales increased by 180 bps on a comparable basis, which is a result of 2 very different elements. First, the intense current [ beach ] activity, as described by Arthur earlier, generated an increase of cost of sales by circa 90%. Second, a charge that used to be accounted for in depreciation and related to the short-term extension of 2 French outdoor media contracts is, this semester, accounted for in cost of sales and represent the other 90 bps. The decrease in depreciation, representing 160 basis points, is explained by 90 basis points by the point I just mentioned. The other 70 bps decrease is a result of the reduction of real estate footprint carried over in the last few years. As a result, our operating margin rate in H1 2021 amounted to 16.5%. And as I said, it's an increase of 380 bps compared to H1 2020 on a comparable basis. So let's now move on to our headline net financial expenses on Slide 19, which is broadly stable at minus EUR 82 million versus minus EUR 88 million last year. And we begin with the interest on net financial debt, which is also broadly stable at EUR 45 million versus EUR 48 million in H1 2020. This is a result of 2 opposite effects: first, a decrease in interest expenses as a consequence of the group deleveraging and the unwinding of cross-currency swaps that were executed in December 2020; second, a decrease in interest income due to the decline in interest rates on our cash at hand. Interest on lease liabilities were at EUR 35 million compared to EUR 40 million in H1 2020. The other lines are nonsignificant, and this results, as I said, in a minus EUR 82 million headline net financial expenses. Now on Slide 20, income tax. Reported income tax of EUR 135 million increased in parallel with the increase in profit before tax. To calculate the headline income taxes of EUR 184 million, we are adding the noncash elements of our P&L, i.e., the tax effect on amortization of intangibles, on impairment and real estate consolidation as well as other noncash items. Effective tax rate reached 24.7%, down by 30 basis points compared to H1 2020. On Slide 21, the headline earnings per share fully diluted is increasing by 27% year-on-year to EUR 2.23. And by the way, this is an increase of 13% versus 2019. This is obviously directly related to the increase in our operating margin as there were no other major variation in the other line of our headline P&L that you'll find in Slide 40 for your reference. Moving to Slide 22, free cash flow. Our free cash flow before change in working capital increased by EUR 110 million, representing a plus 22% year-on-year and reaching EUR 605 million. The improvement is a result of the following evolution: first, obviously, an increase in EBITDA by EUR 129 million and a reduction of EUR 55 million in our lease liabilities, thus a total improvement of EUR 184 million, in line with our operating margin performance and benefiting from all -- from our All in One real estate plan; second, CapEx slightly decreased by EUR 23 million, more of a timing effect between H1 and H2; third, as I mentioned, we are paying more taxes than last year, representing an incremental cash outflow of EUR 89 million. Next slide, use of cash. In H1 2021, change in working capital representing an outflow of minus EUR 1,191 million, a deterioration of EUR 338 million compared to H1 2020. As we already told you, following the record inflow of working capital in December 2020, we anticipated a reversal of up to EUR 500 million for the full year, out of which the EUR 338 million deterioration of the first semester is fully in line with our expectation. Acquisition, net of disposal, had a minor effect of EUR 8 million. Earn-out paid, net of buyout, amounted to EUR 68 million in H1. Other noncash items reached EUR 126 million, representing a positive swing compared to June 2020 of circa EUR 230 million. This result from 3 main elements: first, the impact of the early unwinding in December 2020 of the 2021 and the 2024 cross-currency swaps on the group's Eurobonds, bringing a positive EUR 60 million; second, the mark-to-market of the 2025, 2028 and 2031 swaps trigger a positive variation of EUR 140 million due to the decrease in the USD to euro rate and the increase in interest rates compared to H1 2020; third, a change in earnout and buyout representing a positive EUR 20 million. All in all, at the end of June, we increased our net debt by EUR 529 million compared to its position at December 2020. Moving to Slide 24, net financial debt. The group closing net debt is reaching EUR 1.3 billion at the end of June 2021, a degradation that I just referred to of about EUR 0.5 billion versus end of December due to the cyclical nature of working capital. The average net debt year-to-date is EUR 1.6 billion. When we include the average lease, this represents a leverage of 1.9x EBITDA, a bit better than our internal leverage target of [ times ] 2.2 as 0.2 is directly explained by a weak dollar. We clearly had a strong free cash flow in the last 12 months as well as an improvement of average working capital on the last 12 months. And finally, we are helped by the relative weakness of the dollar. And I'm sure you remember that our Eurobonds, which financed Epsilon acquisition, are swapped in dollars. So taking into account this better-than-expected cash performance in the first semester and the currency environment I just mentioned, we are upgrading our full year objective of average net debt from circa EUR 2 billion to circa EUR 1.8 billion, which can be even EUR 1.6 billion should the dollar stay roughly at the current level. This concludes my financial presentation, and now I give the floor back to Arthur.

Thank you, Michel-Alain. Of course, our H1 performance is encouraging, but this will be the case across the board. What's important to note beyond those numbers is our unique abilities, thanks to our differentiated model to unlock sustainable growth for our clients and for ourselves while maintaining the strongest margin in the industry and building a better future for our people. Let me break that down. First, we now own the data and the tech assets needed to help our clients win in a cookie-less world driven by commerce. We made bold acquisitions early on with Sapient and more recently with Epsilon. These raised questions at the time. But today, these investments position us to address and actually lead the profound shifts we are seeing in our industry, accelerated by the pandemic. You just have to look at our number in the U.S. with Epsilon, PMX and Publicis Sapient all delivering growth above 25% in Q2. For more than a year now, we have been outperforming the market, thanks to those capabilities. Of course, you should not take those numbers as the long-term trends, but they demonstrate that data and tech are paramount for our clients. I would like to be clear on one point. As a lot is being said about everyone's capabilities at the moment, like all of our competitors, we have access to the wealth of data and technologies of the various platforms like Google, Facebook, TikTok or Amazon, but it is not enough to simply help our clients navigate those ecosystems. To differentiate and actually win in the world that is dominated by those platforms, our client needs more. With Epsilon, we bring them identity resolution to understand their customers better than anyone else in a soon-to-be cookie-less world. Thanks to Sapient, our clients can build their own digital ecosystem to go direct to their consumers and win in commerce. This is a unique offer that cannot be found at scale with any of our direct competitors or built by our clients in-house. Of course, we are not stopping there. We are continually taking new initiatives to make sure our clients are always ahead of the ongoing revolution in the marketing landscape. Our partnership with The Trade Desk and Adobe on identity resolution are 2 examples of that. Our activities in connected TVs with PMX LIFT are another, and more recently, the acquisition of CitrusAd. Let me say a few words on that. In 2023, commerce sales for CPG brand will have doubled from 2019 levels, making the retailer website a key marketplace where purchasing decisions are taken. In this context, retail media is undergoing exponential growth, already reaching EUR 30 billion annually and is set to further double within 5 years. Combining CitrusAd expertise with Epsilon CORE ID and offsite retail media offer, we bring 3 decisive competitive advantage in commerce to our clients. It will accelerate their growth in this dynamic channel, gives them full visibility on the consolidated performance of their media investments and, last but not least, bring unparalleled access to highly qualified first-party data from retailer, equipping them for a cookie-less world. Now looking at the completeness of our offer and our ability to capture a disproportionate share of our client investment in data, digital media and direct-to-consumer, we believe we'll be in a position to fully recover the revenue loss in 2020 in 1 year instead of 2, as we originally thought. This means that following an organic growth of minus 6.3% in 2020, we should be in position to achieve plus 7% in 2021 if there is no major deterioration in the sanitary context. Second, we have the organization to sustain the best financials. 4 years ago, we set the ambition to shift our organization from a holding company to a platform. That ambition is now a reality. We have moved to a country model with shared support functions. Every country operation now has a single P&L that accelerate cross-fertilization and enable us to allocate resources towards growing segments of our business. This is supported across geography by our shared services being Re:Sources or our global delivery platform based in India. The simplification of our structure and the agility we have brought to our global resources allow us to constantly adapt our cost base. This means we will be able to manage investments in talent and salary inflation while maintaining industry-leading financials. As a result of this, we are upgrading our full year guidance. Our 2021 operating margin rate should now come back to pre-pandemic levels at plus 17%. And last but not least, we are building the future of work with all of our people. I believe that on this topic, we have to be very humble. No one knows exactly what form the future will look like, and it is far too early to set definitive rules. But we know it will be more flexible and also more responsible, more flexible because the last year taught us how to collaborate in different ways across physical and geographical barriers. Marcel has been essential when we were all stuck at home. It is a platform driving our current move back to the office. And it will be the key to building hybrid, fluid working model with the office as the primary place of work where everyone has the opportunity to progress and develop. And more responsible as we will continue to engage with the pressing issues that are shaping the world around us. This means we will continue to take strong, concrete action as we advance on our DE&I agenda to create the most diverse and inclusive environment for all of our teams, our clients and our partners. Just 2 weeks ago, Publicis Media launched the Once & For All Coalition, a multiyear initiative to increase media investments with diverse suppliers. And we will also further advance our environmental commitments as we shift gears to implement our net zero emission plan, which show its 2030 climate objectives validated by SBTi in March. Well, to summarize, we had a strong organic performance in the first part of the year, ahead of our expectations in both Q1 and Q2. In the first half, we totally recovered the losses generated by the pandemic with all of our KPIs exceeding 2019 levels, thanks to the strength of our model. Of course, we all know that the health situation remains unstable globally. With this in mind and assuming no major deterioration in sanitary condition, we believe that we will be in position to fully recover 2019 level for the full year, 12 months ahead of our expectation. Following the minus 6.3% organic decline last year, a total recovery means organic growth at 7% for the full year 2021. When it comes to operating margin, after an exceptionally strong performance in the first half, we are upgrading our full year guidance. Our 2021 operating margin will come back to pre-pandemic levels at 17% while we continue to invest during the second semester in our people and in our products to prepare for future growth. Lastly, this improved operational performance will lead to an upgrade in free cash flow between EUR 1.2 billion and EUR 1.3 billion that will further contribute to the group deleveraging. Moving into the second half of this intense year, I would like to thank again our people for their outstanding efforts and our clients for their trust. Thank you for listening. Now with the director, we will take all of your questions.

[Operator Instructions] We'll now move to our first question over the phone, which comes from Lina Ghayor from Exane BNP Paribas.

Congratulations on the results at every level. I'm very happy to see that. I have 3 questions for you. The first one is on your margin guidance for the full year. Is it kind of a ceiling for you going forward? Or should we think about further margin improvements and efficiency gains that can be done in the future with elements such as remote work or the use of technology in how your team works together? And the second question is on the growth month by month. I know you do not disclose that, but can we get an idea of how the growth moved through the quarter? And lastly, following up on that, onto H2, we have had loads of news around new variants, increasing number of COVID cases. Can you share with us what you are seeing in your claim behavior and the discussions you have with them? Are they business as usual? Optimistic? Confident? Any color would be great.

Thank you very much. Michel-Alain, I will leave you with the margin guidance, and I will take the 2 other questions.

Yes, sure, Arthur. So our operating margin, so as we said, will be back to pre-pandemic level, so the 17% a year ahead of expectation. I mean to answer more precisely your question, of course, margin can improve over 17%. This is not an upper limit. But what matters most is growth. So we are, and we will, prioritizing investment in data and tech and in talent. So as a result, for now, an operating margin of around 17% seems reasonable for the midterm.

On the growth month by month, honestly, every month were strong. So there is not a big difference between one month and another. When you look at the clients' mood and how they see the future, I will make a few remarks. First, they are all in a fighting spirit, all of them. If you remember the discussion we had at one point, we have several buckets, the ones that were suffering, the ones that were in the middle and the ones that were taking advantage of the crisis. I would say now everyone is with a fighting spirit, everyone has a plan. Hopefully, everyone will succeed. I don't know yet. But what is certain is that we have clients in front of us that are committed to succeed and, by the way, committed to transform. And that's maybe the most important point of what we tried to say in our presentation is that we are seeing an increase in first-party data management because the cookie-less world is coming; digital media because this is getting more efficient every day and this is why we talked about retail media; direct-to-consumer because you need to build your own ecosystem that accelerates the demand on those capabilities where we have been investing in the last 10 years. So this is why, again, we feel confident. I actually fully recovered in 1 year what we were expecting to deliver in 2 because we believe that despite the kind of difficulties we can see on a daily basis, there is a willingness for our clients to continue to transform, and we have the right assets to do so.

We'll now move to our next question over the phone, which comes from Adrien de Saint Hilaire from Bank of America.

So this is indeed Adrien. So I have a few questions, if you don't mind. The first one relates to Sapient, and maybe there are 2 questions within this. First, what is the visibility that you have on Sapient going forward? Because it used to be quite project-driven, but I was wondering if you have any feeling for the performance of Sapient into the second half or if it remains a project-driven business? And related to this, I'm just wondering why the performance of Sapient in the U.S. and U.K. are so different. And that's one topic. The second topic is, Michel-Alain, can you give us a sense of like restructuring charges going forward? Should we expect a sort of structurally, let's say, a lower level given the development of H1? And the third question, how are you mitigating the impact of wage cost inflation? Could this have an impact maybe on full year '22 or going forward?

[Foreign Language] I'm going to leave you the 2 last. I'm going to take the first one on Sapient, if you're fine.

Go.

Sapient. I'll start with your second question on Sapient, which is U.S. versus U.K. First of all, and you have been following us for a while now, it's for us a big satisfaction to see the kind of growth we're able to deliver with Sapient in the U.S. Now that is roughly 2/3 of the Sapient business in a very and highly competitive market where people like Accenture are leading the pack and where we are gaining market share every day. That demonstrates the strength and the relevance of our strategy, which is to say you have to bring together not only marketing but business transformation. And the reason why we are growing by 27% on the quarter is due to 2 factors. First, the reorganization we put in place. As you might remember, by the end of '19, when we moved into industry vertical and asked Nigel Vaz to become the CEO, we have seen things recovering very fast. Maybe you remember, but in H1 last year, we were positive despite the difficulties. We were positive in Q4, and the ramp-up is coming. So I would say we have a strong position there, and I think we'll continue to see good things. What is actually -- how can I say? What needs to be noted is that U.K. historically has been a huge growth driver for Sapient. And by the way, the model we have put in the U.S. is inspired but what we are doing in the U.K., which is really industry vertical business transformation for big clients. The reason why the performance in the U.K. is what it is, is something that was completely anticipated since a year now, which is some very structural clients with whom we have great relationships and, by the way, are doing very well, have been, for the moment, temporarily cutting their investments. And as you know, we are talking about big firms. So of course, it's having an impact on a quarterly basis on the U.K. But again, the competitiveness of Sapient in the U.K. is strong. It is a global platform also for other countries like France that is growing, like the Middle East that is booming, like Asia where we're starting to have great results. So overall, because you have to take it at a global level, we are very satisfied with the performance. Coming to H2, the only thing I can tell you is that Sapient will contribute to the growth of the group and will be above the average growth of the group. So no, we feel good. Honestly, the point Michel-Alain raised about our people in India is very important. You need to know that we have within Publicis 18,000 engineers, which is, if you start comparing with our competitors, it's one of a kind. And our people have been suffering terribly there. It has been, if I'm honest, not only for Michel-Alain and me, but also for the Board and Maurice Lévy in particular, a big source of concern. Anne-Gabrielle that is in the room has spent a lot of time making sure that we can help and secure our people there. And if some of them are listening as it is a decent time for them, again, we stand by them, and we are very proud of what they have been able to achieve in this tough period. You?

Yes. All right.

[indiscernible]

Oh, yes. Sure. Thanks for that, Arthur. So yes, Adrien, on the restructuring part, you're right, we had a level of restructuring which was very low in the first semester for EUR 12 million, which is a bit peculiar. So compared to what we had last year, EUR 66 million, it's about EUR 54 million below. Now if you look at H2, I think we'll have about EUR 40 million in restructuring in H2 compared to about EUR 110 million last year, so a decrease of EUR 70 million. So that's restructuring. On the wage cost inflation, let me first remind you guys that we took a very strong stance in 2020 by reimbursing the salary sacrifice to 6,000 employees. And we paid actually in 2020, higher bonuses than in 2019. So we are investing in talent, and it's just not an expression, but it's really what we're doing. So when you look now at 2021, the way we are structuring the evolution of our personnel expenses, as I said, we're decreasing restructuring and, in a certain way, the amount we are saving here, we are investing into our incentive pool. So it was the case in H1 in which our incentive pool reached EUR 180 million, which is about EUR 70 million more than last year. And it will be the case in H2 for about EUR 50 million more than last year. So that's the way we're structuring our cost evolution. Now your last point, I think, Adrien, was about what do we do to contain this evolution of personnel cost. Many things, but if there are several that -- if there are 2 that I can just underline. One, obviously, we carry on our shift of resources towards our global delivery centers in all the different practice being media, data and commerce. That's the source of productivity. And the second one is efficiencies on our support functions. Back to you, Arthur.

Thank you. Simon, back to you, I guess.

We'll now move on to our next question over the phone, which comes from Tom Singlehurst from Citigroup.

Congrats on the results. I had maybe 2, 2.5 questions. And the first one is about revenue recovery rate. You've done 102% in the second quarter, I mean, sort of just over 100%, I suppose, in the first half. I see where you're coming from with the full year guidance, but the implication obviously is slightly below 100% recovery rate across the second half. I'm just wondering whether there's any explicit reason for that. Is there -- I mean it's fine if it's conservatism, but is there anything specific in terms of phasing or particular revenue impact that we should look at that would justify that slight sort of deterioration in sort of recovery rate across the second half? That was the first question. The second question was about margin by mix. I sort of understand with Sapient and with creative where the business will be very much time and materials. Gearing will be linked to what you can sort of drop through on the backbone. But I'm wondering whether there's a sort of incremental margin boost because some areas of the business like media, maybe like Epsilon are growing faster and they've naturally got a better gearing profile. So whether you can give maybe a little bit of insight on the gearing profile for different types of activity, that would be great. And then actually, it's unfair to say half a question. It's maybe a question for Steve, get him involved. I just wanted to talk about the impact from IDFA. Based on what we've seen so far, can we put to bed any concerns that this will be, in some way, negative for the media operations and for the agencies more broadly?

Thank you, Tom. I guess we're going to start by Steve because it has been several quarters now that we can't be in the same room, which is always more difficult. So Steve, hopefully, the line is working and we can hear you.

Tom, thanks for your kind remarks at the beginning. Yes, I mean I think your question about the opt-in of the IDFA and the impact on us, I think, as you know from previous sessions, Tom, this is something that we've actually been preparing for some time and I think you -- probably some of you will recall. But when we initially had the discussions prior to the acquisition of Epsilon, we were preparing for a reduction in tracking ideas for quite a few years. And you've seen the progression of that and how we now have the talent and data assets through Epsilon really to compete in what is clearly a rapidly evolving landscape. Obviously, we also got in parallel the cookie-less world, which is certainly coming. I think the most important thing is that we are not seeing any impacts on our performance because of this IDFA movement. And indeed, one of the reasons for the success is that we've maintained really strong performance by adapting and working to find the best tactics to achieve our client goals as data and technology becomes a far more fulcrum pivot of our key business operations.

Thank you, Steve. Michel-Alain?

Yes. So Tom, I think on the mix of the margin, I think your analysis is right. I mean when you look overall at group level, as Arthur described, we had very large organic growth, north of double digits, and we mentioned the organic growth of Sapient, Epsilon and PMX in the U.S. So indeed, we are helped by a mix which is getting better. But when you go a bit further, you should look at our margin by geography. And clearly, in this first semester, we derived the large amount out of this improvement of margin, H1 2020 to H1 2021 is derived from North America due to the quality of our product mix here and the importance we have in data, business transformation and PMX. And obviously -- digital media, I mean. So obviously, our target here is to replicate in the semester to come and to -- in the other geography, the same type of product mix.

Thanks, Michel-Alain. Yes, please, Tom?

No, I was going to say, so that was interesting in the context of your comments about 17% margins at the sort of medium-term aim. Over time, as the business naturally becomes more digital, naturally SKU looks a bit more like the U.S. Hopefully, over time, naturally the margin for the group will sort of benefit from that mix effect.

Yes. Yes, I think, Tom, I concur. What I'm saying is we are exiting this crisis. We are coming back to our pre-pandemic level of margin at 17%. Can we do better? Yes, I think we can do better. But I think 2 important things. One is we will prioritize investment in tech and people for growth. That's number one. And number two is, for now, as we are just exiting this crisis, the level of 17% of margin midterm, I think, is a good one.

Concerning your question on H2, first of all, let me come back on the context, which is in H2 2020, we actually clearly outperformed the market, as you might remember, which, by definition, makes the comparable for growth tougher. But despite that, and this is what we are seeing today, we think that the strength of our model and the current trends make us confident to actually upgrading our full year guidance overall, starting with organic growth. So as I said, we expect to fully recover in 2020 in 1 year instead of 2, which will imply a 7% organic growth for the full year. But to be very clear to your question, Tom, is we have fully recovered in H1 this year versus last year. And we will fully recover in H2 this year versus last year. There is no deterioration. Thank you. And Simon, I think -- yes? Yes, sorry, Tom.

No, I was going to say super clear.

We'll now move on to our next question over the phone, which comes from Julien Roch from Barclays.

Congratulations on the results. Three questions, if I may. The first one is on the U.S. split. Is it still broadly 25% creative, 30% media, 20% Sapient, 15% Epsilon and 10% health? It should have changed a bit, both Sapient and Epsilon bigger, creative smaller? That's my first question. You've talked about nice double-digit growth in health in the U.S. That has been 15%, 20%, 25%? And my last question is on the potential buyback. You've upgraded your average net debt target, talked about EUR 1.6 billion if the dollar stays where it is, another year of cash flow and you won't have any debt. So when can we expect a buyback or maybe no buyback and you expect to do another big tech acquisition next year?

No, there is no big tech acquisition next year, to be very clear. And when it comes to the share buyback, for the moment, our priority is still deleveraging and small acquisition, but no major acquisition coming soon. What I propose, Michel-Alain, that you take the question on the U.S. split, if you are sure.

Yes, yes. No, no, no, not at all.

You say that kind of, say, after, if you want to?

Not at all. No, no. I think, Julien, I think you got it right. I mean, yes, I mean it's plus or minus 1 point. But overall with the split, 30% media, 25% creative, 10% health, about 20% Epsilon and 15% Sapient. I mean you, yes, you get it. So that's the split. Maybe I take the point of health.

You take the point of health and then...

Yes? Okay. All right. So on health, I mean, what does it mean double digits? It means about north of 15% for the semester on health in the U.S.

If I just make a point -- yes? Yes, you want to add something, sorry.

No, no, no. I was just about to say great.

Okay. Now I just want to make a point because the split story is very important. One of the reasons why we are outperforming the market in the U.S., I mean let's wait to see what happens this quarter, but we outperformed the market in the U.S., which is more than 60% of our revenue in Q1 by 500 basis points. So there is really a gap there. It's due to our capabilities, for sure, to our people, first, but also to the country model. Because now, to give you one example, we can grow Epsilon thanks to the cross-fertilization of clients in media and creative. And on the other hand, creative and media clients can win, thanks to the expertise of Epsilon. And I can tell you exactly the same thing with Sapient. Because we have in the U.S. some clients that have been struggling with the crisis, we have been able to help them with Sapient first in order to rebuild their model and then bring the necessary skill creatively to relaunch their brand and their business. So in the future, what will matter for us is more how do we grow overall. And we know that we are in segments where there is fast growth like data and technology, but how do we do that in an end-to-end way because everyone can contribute in a different way.

We'll now move on to our next question over the phone, which comes from Conor O'Shea from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Congratulations from my side as well. Three quick questions from me. Just firstly, just to come back on the margin target for this year. I understand the comments in the medium term, and there are probably some unusual elements in terms of costs for this year. But I think your guidance implies a decrease in the second half in terms of margins of about 150 basis points or thereabouts. I think, Michel-Alain, you said that the restructuring costs should decline year-on-year, maybe offsetting the incentive costs increase. So just wondering, is there anything to call out there? Or is there a potential that at least for this year, if the second half is decent that we get a better outcome again on margins as we've seen in the last few half year results? Second question, just in terms on the cost. One of your peers yesterday called out an increase in staff rotations, so people leaving, having been sort of cooped up, too, under confinement, particularly in the U.S. market that they're seeing an increase in staff rotation, people moving on and that's being somewhat disruptive. Are you seeing that in your U.S. activities in particular? And then just the last question, on free cash flow, I think your full year guidance implies more or less flat year-on-year before working capital compared with last year. Given that this is a recovery year, again, is that potentially too conservative? Or are there specific things to call out in terms of cash outflow for the second half of the year?

Okay. I'm going to leave you the margin and the free cash flow, and I'm going to take the staff rotation, if it's fine for you. I mean, Conor, I don't know about your company, but the staff rotation at the moment is pretty high everywhere. You just have to read the price. Many people are asking themselves, am I doing the right thing? Do I want to work as I was in the past? What is really important for me? So I think that the rotation we can see in our industry is actually not industry specific. Maybe a bit more because we are in a service company when sometimes days are tougher than others. But I think what matters here is just to be very focused on the situation we are all in. People have spent 15 months at home. Mental health on some is very difficult. They're going to live -- they're going to have to live in a hybrid world where it's going to be more difficult to progress. And so roughly, we have to do 3 things which we are doing at the moment. First, make sure that we are very close from our talent because retention is what matters the most. Second, use the dynamic we are having as an employer or brand with a very clear vision on where we think the industry is going to attract new talent. And I'm not going to give you the list of the people we are attracting. But we are again making a good job there. And then, and that's the point Michel-Alain was doing, is nice transition to the margin, make sure we invest because it's time to invest. We have the right model. We have an organization, by the way, that we are simplified in a way that we can invest in our talent. We have invested in capabilities that are now delivering, as you have seen, for what is an exceptional quarter, [ below ] 25%. The question is how do we make sure that we bring the right talent and that we find the right balance in terms of investment for the future and for the future growth.

Thank you, Arthur. Yes. So Conor, I'm going to take first the question about margin. So I mean the 17% on the year, you're right, derived a 17.5% in H2, and this is to be compared with 19% last year, so a decrease of margin of 150 bps. So if we want to rationalize this 150 bps, first, and I think you've mentioned one of them, we have 2 positive impacts in H2. First, the most obvious come from fewer restructuring costs that I just mentioned that represent about 100 bps, so plus 100 bps. Then we have the operating leverage, which is derived from the organic growth in H2, as Arthur said, fully recovering H2 2020. So obviously, such a leverage is not super easy to assess, but say our best estimate right now is 50 bps. So you have 2 pluses: 100 bps from restructuring; 50 bps from the operating leverage. Then we have a few offsets. The first one is a resumption of G&A costs that we plan to be contained around minus 100 bps, which is mostly travel and external fees. The second one is what Arthur just said about investment and that I said in personnel cost and mostly incentive, merit increase that we have deferred and retention. And coupled with the impact of the new joiner in May and June, it should represent about minus 150 bps. And then finally, as I mentioned in the first part of the call, we had an increase in cost of sales, reflecting the intense pitch environment, and this intense pitch environment is going to carry on in H2. And we have set this to be about a 50 bps negative. So if I just summarize, plus 100 from restructuring cost, plus 50 from operating leverage, minus 100 on G&A, minus 150 on the investment in personnel costs and minus 50 in cost of sales. That's the minus 150 in H2, Conor.

Okay, very clear.

So I think you had a second question about free cash flow. So I think you...

Free cash flow, yes.

Yes, yes. So I think you were -- we are upgrading our free cash flow from circa EUR 1.2 billion to EUR 1.2 billion to EUR 1.3 billion. We're reflecting here the better-than-expected operating performance. Clearly, EBITDA is going to be better than what we thought and what -- and better than last year, you're right, that at the same time, I'll have more CapEx in H2 than what we had in H2 last year as we had a timing difference between H1 and H2 this year. That's number one. Number two is the working capital. You may remember, I mentioned that working capital will be a net outflow up to EUR 500 million. I don't plan to be at minus EUR 500 million, but we already have minus EUR 338 million in H1, and I think we'll have about EUR 100 million in H2. And finally, obviously, we'll be paying more taxes. So all in all, when you look at that, that's where we're seeing the EUR 1.2 billion to EUR 1.3 billion and I think closing more to the EUR 1.3 billion than the EUR 1.2 billion.

We'll now move on to our last question over the phone, which comes from Christophe Cherblanc from Societe Generale.

Two on my side. One, to -- just to come back on the reorganization costs. You mentioned something like EUR 50 million in '21. Is that a realistic order of magnitude for '22 and '23? Or should we come back to what we had in the past? And the second one was on outdoor. I know it's small, but still, it shows in the numbers. So can you update us on the [ Air RTP ] contract? If you renew the contract, will you switch back to the normal accounting we had before? If you don't renew, what is your economic exposure? I understand you can transfer the staff. And lastly, what is the overall impact on EBIT in H1 of Drugstore plus transport? Is EUR 25 million, EUR 30 million loss a realistic order of magnitude?

Yes. No, thank you. I'll start very quickly on question 2 and then pass on 1 and 3 for you. We never ever comment on any client, including [ Air RTP ]. So I'm sorry, I'm not going to be able to make any comment at this stage. But yes, we can talk about the order of magnitude. Michel-Alain, do you want to start with that?

Yes, sure, sure. On restructuring, Christophe, you're right, we posted in H1 EUR 12 million of restructuring. So that's [ EUR 54 million ] less than H1 2020. On the full year, I confirm your understanding, we'll be spending about EUR 50-ish million on the full year. That's about EUR 40 million in H2. Now shall you take this EUR 50 million as a proxy for '22, '23? I don't think so because we have an H1 which is particularly low due to the recovery. I think a good proxy would be somewhere around EUR 80 million to EUR 90 million for the year. So that's restructuring. You want to take the last question?

Do you want a last quick another there? Yes? Okay. Yes?

And the impact of the losses of outdoor on EBIT, the minus EUR 30 million assumption, is that realistic?

You mean on the full year?

No, for H1.

On the full year -- I'm sorry, for H1, no, no, it's -- you're on a high side here. It's double digit, yes, but it's not minus EUR 30 million. We're not disclosing margin by activity. But I mean just to help you in your modelization, it's not minus EUR 30 million. It's double digit, yes, but not minus EUR 30 million.

Thank you very much. [Foreign Language] Simon, thank you very much. Thank you all for listening, and thank you for all of your questions. Sorry, we've been a bit longer than expected. And Alessandra and Brice are here to take any of your questions now offline. And please take good care of you, of your family, and speak very soon. Thank you. [Foreign Language]

[Foreign Language] Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's call. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.