Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you. Thank you to everyone and good morning. Thanks for joining what has been at short notice. I am here today on the call with 2 of the members of our group leadership team. I have Steph Tully, who is the CEO of Jetstar Group, who is on the ground in Singapore today. And also, I'm here with Rob Marcolina, our Chief Financial Officer. What we're going to do at the outset is that we're going to take you through an overview of what we have announced on the ASX today, and then we will open up to some questions. So as you would know, earlier this morning, we announced a strategic restructure of the Jetstar Group. The restructure will allow us to redeploy capital across the group, strengthen our core businesses in Australia and New Zealand and support what is our historic fleet renewal. So as part of this and together with our local partner in Singapore Westbrook Investments, we've made what has been a really difficult decision today to permanently close Jetstar Asia, and that is a Singapore-based low-fares airline that is a part of the Jetstar Group. This has been a really, really tough day for what is an incredible team in Jetstar Asia, who have been part of the Qantas Group for more than 20 years. I wanted to reiterate that I said to our teams this morning that this decision is in no way a reflection of what has been exceptional work by that team over those 20 years. They are incredible and have continued to deliver strong operational performance and exceptional customer satisfaction over that time. However, unfortunately, the reality is that Jetstar Asia as a business has faced a number of unique challenges in recent years. We've seen rising supply costs, in some cases, up to 200%, higher airport fees and intensified competition in the region that has fundamentally challenged the airline's ability to deliver acceptable returns. Particularly when compared to the other strong parts of our core markets here in Australia and New Zealand, Jetstar Asia is expected to post a $35 million loss at an underlying level this year. And importantly, the 16 intra-Asia Pacific routes that will be impacted by the closure will have no impact on Jetstar Airways, either our domestic part or international Jetstar Japan or Jetstar New Zealand. All of the Jetstar International services into and out of Australia will remain unchanged. Jetstar Asia will operate flights for the next 7 weeks on a progressively reduced schedule before its final day of operation on the 31st of July. And we are supporting our Jetstar Asia team during this really difficult time, including finding job opportunities across the group, but also with other airlines and other organizations in the regions. Customers with existing bookings on canceled flights will be offered full refund, and we will also look to reaccommodate them on to other airlines where possible. Singapore remains a critical hub for the group. It is our third largest international port and particularly will remain so with the Qantas International operations. There is no change at all to the Qantas and Jetstar services that we operate into and out of Asia and also through Singapore. And the decision to close Jetstar Asia will allow us to recycle up to $500 million in capital to support our fleet renewal in our core businesses and will see us redeploy 13 aircraft into Australia and New Zealand to offer more low fares and create more local jobs. I am going to hand over now to Rob, who will share more of the details on capital allocation and the financial impacts of this decision.

Thanks, Vanessa, and good morning, everyone. The long-standing financial framework is core to maintaining our financial strength and a key pillar of the financial framework is the disciplined allocation of capital across the group. So as Vanessa said, the closure of Jetstar Asia will unlock up to $500 million in fleet capital, which we will recycle into our core business to support long-term returns. Jetstar Asia's 13 mid-life A320 aircraft will be progressively deployed across the group. 6 of the aircraft will be used to replace leased aircraft in Jetstar's Australia's domestic operation, helping to lower the cost base. 4 will be used to support fleet renewal in Qantas' regional operation, particularly those servicing the resource sector in Western Australia. And the final 3 will be deployed across core markets in Australia and New Zealand to meet underlying growth. This means these assets are being relocated from lower ROIC intra-Asia flying to higher ROIC domestic flying, and it really is our financial framework in action. These decisions align with broader fleet strategy focused on our core business and the capital required to support that. We will soon take delivery of our first Airbus A321XLR later this month and the first Project Sunrise A350-1000ULR at the end of calendar year 2026. We're making disciplined forward-looking decisions like this to recycle capital into core segments and support strategic growth initiatives like Project Sunrise. And on this basis, our CapEx guidance for FY '25 and FY '26 remains unchanged from what we previously provided. As part of today's strategic restructure decision, there will be some consequential financial impacts that I would also like to explain. The closure of Jetstar Asia will have a combined one-off group impact of $175 million, which will all sit outside of underlying earnings. As the business will wind down operations to the 31st of July, we expect these costs to be approximately 1/3 in this financial year with the remainder in next financial year. And I'd like to take you through some of the components of this impact. First, we will incur some one-off redundancy and restructuring costs in this financial year. We will also incur aircraft transition costs to ensure the 13 aircraft are ready for their redeployment as well as accelerated write-downs related to the early retirement of the Qantas regional aircraft that will be replaced. And finally, we'll be booking to the P&L $65 million of historical foreign exchange -- sorry, foreign currency translation losses that have to date set in our equity reserve. And this stems from the consolidation impacts over time of the Singapore dollar-denominated Jetstar Asia business into the Qantas Group. The cost of aircraft transition, accelerated write-downs and the release of foreign currency translation losses will be incurred in FY '26 financial year. The closure of Jetstar Asia will also have a direct pretax cash impact of approximately $160 million, predominantly in FY '26. This reflects the redundancy payments, supplier restructuring and aircraft transition costs that I referenced earlier as well as the unwinding of Jetstar Asia's working capital of $90 million. It is important to note that the cash impact of these changes will be materially offset by 2 factors. First, we expect to see working capital benefits from the growth of Jetstar Australia and New Zealand, which we're utilizing the redeployed aircraft more efficiently. And second, we expect cash tax adjustments as a result of the closure that will reduce our tax payments across the group in the next financial year and future years. Importantly, these financial impacts are short-term, nonrecurring and are being incurred to strengthen our financial foundations. Most importantly, we expect the redeployment of the capital to be positive for the group and improve long-term returns as these assets are shifted to stronger performing parts of our portfolio. Let me now finish by providing a few brief comments related to the group's trading in the second half of financial year FY '25. Starting with Jetstar Asia. We have said today the business is forecast to lose $35 million in underlying EBIT in FY '25, with the performance deteriorating in the second half, resulting in the loss of $25 million in underlying EBIT. On the domestic front, capacity growth for the half will be slightly below previous guidance, and this is largely due to Cyclone Alfred in March, which significantly disrupted operations across Queensland for both Qantas and Jetstar. And we estimate the cyclone had approximately $30 million impact on earnings for the half, inclusive of the capacity impact. For Group International, our capacity is expected to grow by 9% for the half, which is 3 points lower than previous guidance. This shortfall is primarily in Qantas International and is due to the impact of industrial action impacting the A330 wet lease operation from Finnair. Despite these minor setbacks, we continue to see strong demand across both domestic and international markets. We expect unit revenue for the half to remain in line with previous guidance. And as previously mentioned, we expect CapEx to be in line with previous guidance. And finally, we have also provided an updated capacity guidance for the first quarter of next financial year, which is now inclusive of the impact from the closure of Jetstar Asia. And we will, of course, provide further details on all these items as part of our full year results in August. And I'll now hand back to Vanessa, who will provide some closing remarks.

Thanks, Rob. Firstly, I want to reiterate again, we are incredibly proud of the Jetstar Asia team and the work that they have done to deliver low fares, strong operational performance and exceptional customer experience despite the immense challenges that this business has had to face in the recent years. We are taking a disciplined approach to the capital allocation so that we can continue to reinvest in our customers, our people and our business. Our dual-brand strategy continues to drive strong performance across all markets, including business purpose, premium and low fare leisure. I want to end by saying that this was not an easy decision, and I want to sincerely thank our Jetstar team for the impact that they have had on aviation in the region over the past 2 decades. Thank you. And Rob and I and Steph are here now to take any of your questions, and I'll pass to the moderator to facilitate that.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Matt Ryan from Barrenjoey.

I just had a question just relating to the sort of strong demand that you're calling out and in particular, I guess, the first quarter capacity guidance that's in there. So I guess two-part question. Maybe firstly for Steph. I think in the past, you've talked about capacity sort of meeting demand and 7% up in first quarter '26 is a pretty big number. So just sort of looking for the drivers behind that number. And then the Qantas International capacity looks like it's come down a couple of percent versus what you were previously guiding to. So I just wanted to understand if that's the industrial action still carrying through or whether there's been sort of more proactive decisions around that?

Yes, Steph, I'm happy to take that question first up.

Yes. Thanks, Matt. So on the Jetstar Domestic side, what you see coming through in Jetstar's forecast capacity is completely in line with underlying low fares leisure demand. And what we have done is, obviously, since the Rex operations have folded, Jetstar has played a primary role in backfilling that. So we've seen a lot of the share that was on Rex moving to Jetstar. So when you look at those growth numbers, backfilling Rex is a primary driver and then you put the underlying leisure growth on top of that, and that is where the 7% comes from.

And Matt, that is an outlook that was consistent with what we said in February. And the other thing that I would say -- in addition to that is that what we're seeing in terms of the build for intakes into July, it is supporting that level of capacity. And as always, if we see that were to change, capacity is the lever that we have because we are committed to making sure that across both Jetstar and also Qantas that our capacity is in line with demand. But Rob, I'll pass to you for the comment on international.

Yes. Maybe, Matt, just on international. So obviously, we are seeing there's an overhang with regards to the 330 that we have called out. But I think it's important to say that the ninth and 10th A380 are coming back, and we're really confident with regards to the deployment of that capacity as we stare into, as Vanessa said, not only the momentum we've got in July, but throughout the next 6 months.

Your next question comes from Jakob Cakarnis from Jarden Australia.

I just wanted to follow on from Matt's question, just in a similar theme. In the first half, Steph, your business, particularly Jetstar Domestic was running in that kind of low 30s load factors. Obviously, you've had pretty strong yield growth off the back of that kind of utilization. I'm just wondering if you can help us -- clearly, you're saying that the demand and supply are going to be matched. But how do we think about that load factor going forward, particularly as you allocate? I think Rob said 10 of those aircraft are going to go to service the resources market, but 3 come into domestic and New Zealand. Can you just give us a sense of how we think about the utilization? Do we get some dilution in the load factors? Is that the expectation for the first half?

I'll pass to Steph in a second. But I think, Jake, that Jetstar's load factors have been up to 90%, not in the 30%. So I don't know whether you've misspoken there. But Jetstar's loads have consistently been high. And Steph, I'll let you talk about just the way we're going to deploy those 3 aircraft for growth, obviously, [ one ] in New Zealand.

Yes. And just to clarify on the aircraft because I think you said 10 for the resource sector, Jake. It's 4 for Network Aviation. It's 6 are going to Jetstar, but they had to replace leases that we are exiting from the business and therefore, has an impact in a favorable way on Jetstar's cost position. And so you've got that 6 for the resources and then 3, we see coming to Jetstar Australia and Jetstar New Zealand to meet that underlying demand. We actually have a really deliberate strategy to achieve load factors in the 90-plus. It's what most of the best low-cost carriers around the world achieve. And the booked load factor versus the travel load factor on low-cost carriers is -- the difference is much bigger than for full-service carriers because you have a higher no-show rate on low-cost carriers. So we're doing lots of commercial strategies to make sure that those load factors are as high as they can be because obviously, that's good for our unit cost and unit revenue. So you'll see one of those aircraft will send over to New Zealand, where we're getting very strong results in New Zealand with our domestic and trans-Tasman flying, and then the other 2 will be in Australia to meet that underlying demand, including where Jetstar can look at new point-to-point route opportunities and stimulate demand the way it always has.

Your next question comes from Anthony Moulder from Jefferies.

If I can look at this result that you've highlighted today, the first half '25 financials for Jetstar shows subsidiaries reporting a $13 million profit. I appreciate that's NPAT's similar to EBIT for it. But I guess I read from this that, that would include the $10 million loss from Jetstar Asia. So effectively, is the rest of Jetstar Japan that's providing that profit for the first half? And how is that looking through to the second half, please? And similarly, on the outlook, you've talked about a lot of things as strong demand is key, but where are you as far as the fuel bill for second half '25 at this particular point, knowing that you're probably 11 -- what is it, 11 days remaining in the month in the second half? You probably know what your fuel bill is for second half. Just some indication as to how you're seeing that for the second half, please?

Rob can take...

So maybe just on the first one, yes, it does include the Jetstar Japan. So -- and then maybe, Steph, do you want to comment on just the momentum in Jetstar Japan and I'll come back to fuel?

Sure, Rob. So Jetstar Japan, obviously, very different operating environment than Jetstar Asia, and Jetstar Japan is on track to be profitable, which is good. And the 6 aircraft worth noting that are exiting Jetstar Australia because of the leases. They will go back to Jetstar Japan as well. So Jetstar Japan business is on track to be profitable this year.

And maybe just on fuel. Anthony, thanks for your question. So we're not going to give any specific numbers today. But clearly, we have benefited from the tailwinds. Now that obviously has been offset by some of the things we've talked about today. But we will continue -- we're 80% hedged, as you know, and we've got just a few more weeks to go. But obviously, those tailwinds have been experienced since the outlook statement we gave in February.

Your next question comes from Andre Fromyhr from UBS.

I just wanted to follow up on the sort of part ownership implications. So if I understand correctly, Jetstar Asia is 49% owned. Can you just confirm do you equity account it in the way that Anthony just mentioned? Or is it consolidated? And then if we think about the financial implications that you've called out, such as the $160 million cash cost, is that Qantas' experience? Or is that shared with your co-investors?

Yes. So we fully consolidate Jetstar Asia as if it is a wholly owned subsidiary and the Qantas Group takes full economic risk for Jetstar Asia. Our partner in Westbrook have been an instrumental part in enabling Jetstar over these last couple of decades to operate out of Singapore, and they're an important partner for us in other parts. I'll get Steph to talk about that. But the group actually takes the lion's share of the economic impact of the decision that we've made today, both in terms of the P&L impact outside of underlying and also the cash. But Steph, do you want to talk just quickly about Westbrook and next steps?

Yes, sure. Thanks. So Westbrook holdings is the private investment company of Dennis Choo, who's been the Chair of Jetstar Asia for many years. It's up to Dennis now, obviously, what happens with his Westbrook, but Dennis is also the founder of HTT, which is Holiday Tours & Travel, which has many relationships across the Qantas Group, including the distribution partner throughout Asia and also helping with some of our Jetstar International cabin crew bases in Thailand. So we're very indebted to Dennis for how he has supported Jetstar Asia over the 20 years we've been here, and that relationship will continue for years to come as well.

If you don't mind me just following up on that. So that sort of the lion's share economic exposure that you call out, Vanessa, we understand then also that the fleet that are sort of coming back to the domestic market, they are wholly owned by Qantas Group?

Yes. So the 13 aircraft, 11 are wholly owned and 2 are leased and those aircraft in principle are Qantas Group aircraft.

Your next question comes from Cameron McDonald from E&P.

Just a follow-on question around that, the fleet actually was going to be my question. So wholly owned. So as part of the economics that you were getting, were you sort of leasing them as an inter-entity type transfer? Or are you providing them free of charge to Jetstar Asia? And what was the -- what's the potential economic impact of that?

Yes. So they were being leased. And so as we talked about with regards to some of the write-offs, so some of those kind of lease payments will be part of the number that will work its way through the accounts, Cam.

Okay. So just to be clear though, you own those aircraft, which you've then subsequently leased. So there's still not a -- it's not -- you're not bringing back leases that are being absorbed by Qantas Group or Jetstar in Australia?

Correct. Yes. As Vanessa said, 11 are owned and 2 are leased, yes.

Okay. Just one sort of follow-on question. My understanding is, and certainly, you've highlighted in the past that I think Jetstar Asia has got its own AOC, which you thought was a competitive advantage. What is the -- what happens to that AOC?

Well, the AOC turns to the government of Singapore. Obviously, as we've made the decision or we've contemplated this decision, we went through multiple scenarios to maximize value to the group, and that involved conversations with the Singapore government. And based on all of that and weighing that up, for us, the greatest value was the cost that we are taking and bringing the capital back to Australia, the AOC -- and we have had a privilege of being the only international carrier with a Singaporean AOC, and that's been something that we've prided ourselves on. However, given the decision that we have made, that AOC will return to the Singapore government. And obviously, they will make decisions in the future according to what they think is in the best interest of Singapore aviation.

Your next question comes from Ian Myles from Macquarie.

Just a couple of simple questions. Firstly, just at a broader level. I appreciate you've made a decision about Jetstar Asia. But can you maybe just give us a bit more color because you're not looking on a 12-month basis, you're looking on a horizon, why you couldn't bring this business back to an acceptable return? What was missing in Jetstar Asia which you have in Jetstar Australia or Qantas as a whole?

Yes. So a couple of points there. One, in the last 18 months, what we've seen in Singapore -- so it's unique to the Singapore market, of which Jetstar Asia had 100% exposure to the Singapore market because it was a locally based airline. We saw significant escalation in costs that were structural in terms of airport fees, in terms of fuel supply fees, but also the competitive environment and the impact that, that had on yields. What we could see was that this was a permanent change to the environment for Jetstar Asia. And also looking through that lens and the opportunity cost, I suppose, of maintaining $0.5 billion worth of aircraft in Singapore versus being able to deploy them more profitably in our core at a time where access to capital has never been more important given the fleet renewal that we're undertaking as a group. In weighing up all that, we felt that the most important decision that we would make through the lens of that financial framework and allocation of capital. This is the decision that will create the greatest value for the group, but also for investors. And that is obviously the decision that we have made.

Okay. Just you made mention of the plane write-downs. But I think you mentioned or Rob mentioned, it's actually not the planes you're getting back. I was saying which planes are you writing down? And how much is that write-down?

Yes. So as we said that the 4 of the 13 aircraft that are coming from Singapore will be positioned in Western Australia that will serve in Network Aviation, which serves our mining market, and that will enable us to retire some F100s that are older and are in need of accelerated retirement. And so the write-downs that Rob was referring to relate to 4 F100s.

Your next question comes from Scott Ryall from Rimor Equity Research.

I think the questions have progressed really nicely because mine is exactly on that topic, Vanessa. So I just want to clarify, and I missed your opening comments, I apologize. But I just want to clarify, when you say you're unlocking $500 million of fleet capital to be recycled, so that's the value of the fleet in Jetstar Asia that is going to be redeployed as you've gone through in the presentation. Does that -- so I understand that concept, but does it avoid CapEx for you in -- over the next few years, given the mid-life assets? You're obviously retiring some claims due to that. Or what -- when you say unlock, what I'm just trying to get a sense of how you're wanting us to interpret that, please?

Got it. Rob is going to...

Yes, Scott, thank you. Firstly, just to clarify the $500 million. So the $500 million is made up of 2 parts. So one is the carrying or the value of the aircraft themselves, the 13 aircraft and the other one is the saving and capital maintenance. But in terms of your point around unlocking, the capital value benefit will be realized over time. Some of that capital that we're unlocking at this particular time will be directed to Airbus to help with our ongoing CapEx program. So we're really managing the CapEx in terms of the envelopes and the guidance that we've already provided both for FY '25 and for FY '26 will be maintained. So all the things we're talking about today, the lease returns, retirement of older fleet, the growth aircraft, that will be -- that is all captured within the guidance we've already provided.

Yes. Okay. So -- but in terms of unlocking fleet capital, this is effectively your -- and I don't want to labor the point if it's irrelevant, but I'm just trying to get a sense of you're basically saying that you can avoid some of the fleet CapEx over the next few years because you're bringing these back to use in the Aussie market.

Yes, exactly. Yes. I would say that is true. But also we're doing it in a way that is growing the contribution from the redeployment of the aircraft. But yes to your question.

Yes, sure because you're putting it into a market, you're thinking that's fine.

I think we have one more question -- three more questions.

Your next question comes from Sam Seow from Citi.

Just a simple one on the Qantas Domestic capacity outlook. I appreciate the [ output ] impact, but capacity has been flat all year. So just wondering that step-up to 3%, is there any color around where that's coming from? It just feels like it's a little bit of a step-up given capacity and passenger numbers have been broadly flat, I guess, mostly.

Yes, Sam, thanks. I'll take that. So you're right. So the quarter 1 capacity that we had in February was 2%. It's gone up to 3%. There's a couple of reasons for that. One is just the increased confidence that we have now versus we had back in February around the ops resilience with regards specifically to the 330s. And the second one was we are restoring capacity for our target segments, i.e., in the corporate market that we were unable to fully serve in the first part of FY '25. So they are the main reasons. But again, I think it's really important to say that we're only going to deploy capacity as it relates to demand, and we feel that's [ inappropriate ] for the first quarter for Qantas.

And the other thing that I would say is that it's consistent with Virgin's outlook. And secondly, we are still optimistic and confident that the corporate market is continuing to recover, and that is a part of the market that Qantas best serves as well. But as I said before, these are outlook capacity, and we will maintain, as always, an approach to making sure that capacity and supply is in balance.

Got it. And just quickly, just to clarify the Jetstar International capacity, the difference there or the kind of decrease is all 100% Asia and there's nothing else in there?

Yes, that's right, Sam.

Yes, that's correct. So if you took Jetstar on a stand-alone, you've still got a 13% increase as per previous guidance. This is the impact of Jetstar Asia.

Your next question comes from Justin Barratt from CLSA.

The one question I just sort of had that was outstanding was just around, I guess, you sort of spoke to the progressive move of your -- of those 13 aircraft back to Australia. Can you just give us an idea on even just a high-level time frame? Or are we talking weeks, months or years to get those 13 aircraft back and sort of operational in Australia and New Zealand?

Yes. The plan is that the first aircraft will be back by August and the last aircraft will be back by December this calendar year. And obviously, that's a process that we will manage through with CASA and making sure that all of the engineering that needs to be done gets done, but that is the planning time frame.

Your final question comes from Anthony Moulder from Jefferies.

Sorry, I just wanted to follow up on a comment made to Andre's question. It sounded like the Jetstar Asia accounts were consolidated across Jetstar. I just want to confirm because I'm looking at that share of net profit of investments. Is that just Jetstar Asia -- sorry, Jetstar Japan is the way to think about that, please?

Yes. Jetstar Asia is consolidated.

Thank you. I think that, that is the -- that was the final question. And so thanks again for joining us this morning. We look forward to seeing you all in August for the full year results and greater color about the first quarter and the outlook. But thanks again.