QinetiQ Group plc (QQ) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the QinetiQ FY '25 Results Presentation. So thank you all for coming, and thank you all for joining us who are online. We're very grateful. So my name is Stephen Lamacraft. I'm Investment -- Investor Relations Director for QinetiQ, and I'm joined by Steve Wadey, the CEO; and Martin Cooper, the CFO. And without further ado, I will hand over to Steve to start the presentation. Thank you.

Great. Thank you, Stephen, and good morning, and welcome to everybody, those in the room and also those online for our full year results for FY '25. Whilst it's been a difficult year for the group, our highly skilled employees have continued to deliver mission-critical technologies and services for our customers, supporting their operational needs. Today, we will take you through our results and the actions we've taken to address our short-term performance. I'm also going to set out why we are a differentiated company and our long-term fundamentals remain strong, positioning us at the center of defense innovation for future warfare. A great example is shown here. The QinetiQ operated MOD Hebrides range in Scotland. As we speak, quite literally, our team is supporting NATO's Formidable Shield exercise, Europe's largest integrated air and missile defense training scenario. They are delivering realistic threat representation scenarios and expert analysis in a secure test and training environment to ensure that 10 NATO nations, plus Australia are prepared to respond decisively against some of the world's most demanding threats. Formidable Shield also showcases our long-term partnering agreement in action. I'm sure you will have seen our announcement this morning of the GBP 1.5 billion contract extension, more on that later. Let me start with our 4 key messages for today. First, our financial performance in the fourth quarter was not as anticipated due to tough external market conditions impacting our U.K. and U.S. short-cycle work, and we have taken an impairment charge to reflect the restructuring underway in the U.S. Secondly, following my new leadership appointments, we have reviewed the business and taken decisive actions to address the operational issues that impacted our short-term performance with a disciplined focus across the portfolio. Thirdly, the fundamentals of the company remains strong, and we have a clear strategy to create long-term value across the group. And finally, including the LTPA extension, we now have a record order backlog of GBP 5 billion. This, combined with the strong alignment of our mission-critical capabilities to our customers' needs, provides confidence and visibility in delivering medium- to long-term growth. Our agenda today expands on these key messages. I'll start by giving you our year-end review. Martin will then provide a commentary on our financial results. I'll then come back and give you an overview of our strategic outlook. Finally, we'll open up for questions. So to our review of the year. As we set out in March in our trading update, tough near-term conditions and geopolitical uncertainty impacted our revenue and profit with delays to a number of contract awards in the U.K. and U.S., notably our usual fourth quarter weighting to higher-margin product sales from the U.S. This performance fell short of our expectations. During the year, I made 3 key appointments to strengthen our leadership team: Martin as Group CFO; Iain Stevenson as Chief Operating Officer; and Tim -- Tom Vecchiolla as U.S. Chief Exec. I now have an experienced team that is making a positive impact for our long-term performance with disciplined portfolio actions, including the U.S. restructuring and associated one-off charges. We've also increased our strategic focus to leverage the strengths of being a U.K.-led multinational group into NATO allies, whilst retaining our focus across the AUKUS nations. Encouragingly, we ended the year with a record order intake of GBP 2 billion, highlighting the relevance and demand for our core capabilities. With a strong focus on execution, we enter FY '26 with 75% revenue cover at group level. We achieved a healthy cash conversion of 105%, enabling investment in organic growth and delivering record shareholder returns through our progressive dividend and share buyback programs, for which in March we announced an additional GBP 200 million over the next 2 years. Moving forward, we are focused on delivering consistent operational performance and are well positioned to deliver sustainable profitable growth. I now want to address our short-term performance and the actions we've taken in our U.K. Intelligence and U.S. sectors in response to the tough near-term trading conditions. In U.K. Intelligence, we experienced a marked slowdown in short-cycle contract awards, particularly science and technology work, reducing revenue by GBP 30 million compared to prior year. In response, we resized our capabilities whilst protecting core skills for the future. In addition, we have taken action to realign the business to emerge on customer needs, so that we are better positioned to support operations and digital transformation in the U.K. defense and security markets. Whilst we have assumed a stable year ahead, this business remains highly relevant and is well positioned to return to growth in the years ahead. In the U.S., we experienced both market challenges following the change in administration, including export restrictions and operational issues. This resulted in revenue reducing by $70 million due to our legacy operations, mainly related to delays in high-margin product sales. Within this difficult market, Avantus revenue remained flat. In response, and following the appointment of Tom Vecchiolla in January, Martin and I, along with Iain and Tom, reviewed our U.S. operations and launched a restructuring program. We've taken actions to improve operational performance by resizing our cost base aligned to market priorities, addressing labor rates and inventory management. These actions resulting in us taking in-year noncash charges, predominantly due to our legacy U.S. operations, but they put us on a necessary and stronger foundation to move forward. Martin will detail those to you later. As part of the restructuring and to be more resilient in the new market environment, we are refining our strategy in the U.S. to be better aligned to current national security and defense priorities. We are focused on 4 revenue streams where we have good long-term incumbent positions and have delivered underlying growth in the year, maritime systems, advanced sensors, space and missile defense mission support and persistent surveillance systems. To illustrate, the Avantus long-term contracts with the Space Development Agency, Strategic Capabilities Office and the Tethered Aerostat Radar System program are all high-priority national programs, and all have delivered significant on-contract growth in the year, providing a solid base from which to execute this refined strategy. Whilst it's been a difficult year in the U.S., we are taking the necessary and right steps to resize the business, improve execution to deliver a stable year ahead and refine the strategy to deliver long-term growth and value creation. To summarize, we have taken decisive actions in U.K. Intelligence and the U.S. sectors to derisk the portfolio and drive consistent operational performance as well as proactive steps to improve our cost efficiency across the group. Whilst it's a difficult year, we also achieved many successes which demonstrate the relevance of our capabilities. Leveraging the LTPA, we signed a 3-year agreement with NATO to access our unique test and training services. As a result, we have seen greater usage by the Spanish, German and Italian Air Forces. Reflecting our expertise in R&D, we've won GBP 160 million 2-year contract extension to lead the weapon sector research framework, increasing the pace at which next-generation weapons are being developed for the frontline. In the U.K., we secured programs up to GBP 200 million for the design, build and support of highly secured communications capabilities used on major operations such as the current Carrier Strike Group deployment to the Far East. During the year, we've been awarded contracts worth $120 million for advanced sensor systems for the U.S. Army, highlighting our role as a key industrial partner for the development of next-generation soldier sensor and ISR systems. In Australia, we were awarded a $47 million contract from the Defence Aviation Safety Authority to deliver specialist engineering skills and knowledge for the next 5 years with an option to extend for a further 5 years. Finally, we continue to see success in the delivery of our training capabilities with a 17% increase in demand for our aerial targets. These are just a few examples of the mission-critical capabilities that we are delivering to our customers, demonstrating our relevance to the current and future threat as well as giving us long-term revenue visibility. I'll now hand over to Martin to take us through the financials.

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. The second half of the year was below financial expectations. The short-term market conditions took hold, and we took a number of one-off charges. At the half year, we talked about a near-term focus on strengthening core business processes. As we grow in scale, we do so from firm cost-effective foundations. The results today reflect the considerable action taken in recent months to ensure we have the financial controls in place as we drive the business forward. So turning to the results, and I'll start with the key financial metrics at a group level and details on our 2 reporting segments, and I'll finish with guidance and capital allocation. And for reference, the U.S. dollar rate for the year averaged $1.28 compared to $1.26 last year, which provided a modest headwind to the reported values. So on to the numbers. Order intake came in at GBP 1.95 billion, up 12% on last year, and this enabled backlog to remain flat versus last year and H1 on an organic basis. Revenue increased 1%, or 2% on an organic basis, to GBP 1.93 billion. Underlying profit was down 14% on last year to GBP 185 million, primarily reflecting the one-off charges taken, and I'll cover this in detail later. Underlying basic earnings per share of 26.1p were down 11% as the profit fall was modestly offset by the ongoing benefit of the buyback. And whilst profitability was disappointing, cash generation and conversion was strong, with good working capital management and many of the charges taken with noncash. Cash generation allow us reflective and value-creating deployment of capital, and shareholder returns increased significantly with a 7% dividend growth and over GBP 100 million of share buyback completed. Leverage therefore ended the year at an improved position of 0.4x, and return on capital remains strong at 22%. Moving to the key group financials, starting with orders, which grew 13% on an organic basis, with GBP 1.95 billion, a record annual level. Whilst this was a good orders performance by year-end, the timing and nature of the order flow, especially in the short-cycle book, impacted our revenue in the second half. The book-to-bill of 1.2x meant we closed the year with a robust funded order backlog of GBP 2.8 billion. And with the additional U.S. unfunded backlog, we have a total position of GBP 3.4 billion, providing good visibility for future growth. Revenue at GBP 1.93 billion grew 2% on an organic basis, with second half revenue of just under GBP 1 billion. Our framework contracts and backlog saw milestone adherence and program execution, but our growth rates for the second half -- but our growth rates for the year and the second half were down on expectations as our short-cycle work in the U.K. and the U.S. were impacted by the geopolitical backdrop. Looking forward, our revenue cover going into FY '26 is higher than last year at 75%, up from 70%, giving confidence for the coming year. Profit for the year was GBP 185 million at a margin of 9.6%, down on last year, predominantly due to one-off charges in our legacy U.S. business. Against expectations set at the start of the year, and as indicated in March, profit was down GBP 45 million due to 2 major factors: GBP 20 million due to the revenue shortfall, primarily in our U.K. and U.S. short-cycle work, as mentioned by Steve; and GBP 25 million for the one-off charges associated with stock value and cost recovery in the U.S. On the right, you will see a table reconciling underlying operating profit to the reported statutory loss, reflecting exceptional charges in the year, which I will cover in detail on the next slide. But just to note, income from research and development expenditure credits, or RDEC, is up on prior year, and we would expect around this level going forward. Moving to the reported exceptional charges in the year, and those I want to pull out can be categorized into 2 areas. Firstly, those planned and executed as part of the company growth strategy; and secondly, those one-offs, predominantly noncash arising from the U.S. restructuring and group efficiency drive. On the planned items, our digital platform investment continues, and rollout has commenced. As a reminder, this represents a discrete multiyear investment project to enable our growth strategy and customer needs. And as outlined, following the sale and leaseback of the Farnborough site back in October and the right-of-use asset accounting, a one-off noncash accounting loss arose for GBP 36 million. As a reminder, this did generate GBP 108 million of cash -- in-year cash, and we extended the buyback program by GBP 50 million at the half year to reflect this deal. On U.S. restructuring and efficiency, the drivers of the charges are, firstly, the one-off largely noncash charges incurred predominantly in legacy U.S. businesses around recoverability of costs and inventory values incurred in prior years. And secondly, as Steve mentioned, we have embarked on a cost efficiency program, including a headcount reduction, which includes leadership and manager roles. And with the U.S. restructuring, we have taken a GBP 144 million impairment of goodwill relating to the holding value of our U.S. business, GBP 30 million of which relates to a change in discount rates, the balance driven by the one-off charges taken and the change in market conditions, again, mainly in our legacy U.S. operations. Before moving to the sectors, I want to cover the 3 main drivers to bridge from the FY '25 margin of 9.6% to our guide of circa 11% for FY '26. Firstly, having conducted a thorough balance sheet review and implemented a more prudent treatment on R&D expenditure and stock holding periods, we do not expect the one-off GBP 25 million of charges to repeat in FY '26. Secondly, we are investing in and driving growth in longer-term framework contracts and those areas of higher sustainable returns, which, combined with the program performance focus through the Chief Operating Officer role, we look to drive enhanced contract execution and retire risk to the bottom line. And thirdly, we continue to focus on cost base efficiency to drive down indirect costs across the group and improve margin. We have a group-wide supply chain efficiency program underway to streamline activities, enhance our category management and our purchasing power across the group. We expect to see the results of these actions materialize through the FY '26 performance as we embed the changes. Now turning to the segmental split of the group performance, starting with EMEA Services, which overall had a good year. Orders grew 21% to GBP 1.4 billion with a book-to-bill of 1.2x, with a EUR 284 million aerial training services contract in Germany leading the way. This increased funded order backlog up to GBP 1.6 billion, excluding LTPA, providing visibility on our sales growth expectations. Revenue came in at 4.3% growth, as good program execution on the framework contracts like LTPA and EDP was offset by a year-on-year decline in the U.K. Intelligence business due to the reduction in short-cycle work. Operating profit grew to GBP 169 million, delivering margins at 11.4%, consistent with the outturn for FY '24. Next, Global Solutions, which had a difficult year. Total orders of GBP 513 million at a book-to-bill of 1.1x was down year-on-year due to the declines and delays in the U.S. short-cycle product orders and the government services work. In-year orders did see the next year of funding and good growth on the Space Development Agency, Strategic Capabilities Office and Tethered Aerostat Radar System programs. Funded order backlog at GBP 0.4 billion and unfunded of GBP 0.5 billion gives us enhanced FY '26 revenue cover at 89%. Revenue was down nearly 10% due to the lower orders and the completion of the U.S. robot CRS(I) production program. But within the headline decline, there was increased revenue from the incumbent positions on the SCO, TARS and SDA contracts and higher levels in our targets and other product lines, as Steve referenced. Margin at 3.6% was impacted by the shortfall in higher-margin U.S. product sales and recoveries in the U.S. government services, coupled with the one-off in-year charges in the U.S. Cash generation was once again strong with a conversion ratio of 105%. Many of the profit impacts were noncash, and we improved working capital management. CapEx spend was GBP 108 million as we continue our investment in infrastructure and capability enhancement, and GBP 43 million of this relates to recoverable investment in the LTPA. To complete the cash analysis, the movement in net debt is shown here. We generated GBP 142 million of free cash flow and delivered a significant step-up in shareholder returns at GBP 151 million, as we extended and increased the pace of the buyback program, and the dividend grew at 7%. Net debt closed at GBP 133 million when the net benefit of the sale and leaseback was included, so we closed the year with a leverage ratio of 0.4x. Moving to guidance for the FY '26 year. Revenue, we expect to grow around 3% on an organic basis with good visible growth in our U.K. Defense business. This is at the lower end of the 3% to 5% we articulated back in March. As in other parts of the business, we are taking a more cautious view, whilst the impact of the geopolitical outlook in the U.K., U.S. and Australia is worked through. As covered earlier, margin, we expect to recover to around 11% as we build back from the FY '25 performance. Cash conversion, we expect to remain strong, at least 90%, which with our buyback program and dividend policy in place, we would expect leverage to remain around the 0.5x. EPS, we expect to grow 15% to 20%, reflecting the margin recovery and the ongoing buyback program. And as usual, to help you with your models, we've included the additional technical guidance slide in the backup. Finally then, let me turn to capital allocation. We continue to see the business delivering strong cash flow, and the focus and priority is on organic growth as we drive program performance, margin expansion and investment in the business. As illustrated, we have ramped up shareholder returns. And alongside our progressive dividend policy, we continue to see buybacks as a compelling component of shareholder returns, as illustrated by the additional 2-year extension for up to GBP 200 million. This program we expect to commence in early June. We have a strong balance sheet, and it gives us flexibility for growth and enables the potential for further shareholder returns as we look to deploy capital in the most value-enhancing manner. In summary, FY '25 was a tough year. However, our good backlog and opportunity set are a strong indicator of our prospects. Our cost efficiency drive, together with good operational performance, is key to that translating into consistent sales and profit growth. And through our capital allocation, we are demonstrating that we will allocate our growing returns in ways that continue to create value. With that, I'll hand back to you, Steve.

Great. Thank you, Martin. So to our strategic outlook. Let me start by explaining why we are a differentiated company with strong fundamental growth drivers that position us well for the future. In response to the increasing threat, we partner closely with our customers to rapidly create and experiment with new capabilities, test those capabilities are safe and perform as intended and ensure our war fighters are trained and operationally ready. We are a horizontal integrator working across platforms, services and suppliers, helping our customers accelerate capabilities into service to counter the threat. We're a purpose-driven company with a customer-centric strategy aligned to structural growth markets in defense and security. Our highly relevant mission-critical capabilities underpin this strategy, and we are focused on delivering consistent operational performance. Whilst we have a plan to address our short-term performance, the fundamental growth drivers of the business remain strong. The incumbent positions we have on long-term contracts provide good revenue visibility, and our underlying business continues to deliver high-quality earnings. With a strong balance sheet and high cash conversion, we're able to continue investing in our people, technology and capability. We also have a disciplined approach to capital allocation, ensuring we will continue to deliver attractive returns for shareholders. We're a differentiated company with a unique value proposition, creating long-term value for all stakeholders. In the last 6 months, there has been significant shifts in the world order, creating uncertainty and a dynamic geopolitical landscape. There has been continued instability and a heightened threat environment created from ongoing conflicts and rising regional tensions. Lessons from current conflicts, particularly Ukraine, are informing the defense requirements of our customers and are strengthening new alliances in Europe and with NATO allies. Within our markets, there is an enduring need for strong national defense and security. Defense reform is underway, with governments having to balance national priorities with fiscal pressures, resulting in increased demand for productivity and efficiency from industry. That said, over the last year, we have seen major commitments in significantly increasing defense spending over the long term, particularly in Europe. To maintain alignment with these changing priorities, we continue to prioritize our customers in the AUKUS nations and have increased our strategic focus to leverage our strong U.K. base on opportunities that meet the needs of NATO and its allies. Our strategy and inherent strengths are well matched to these national priorities and are increasingly attractive for our capabilities. These changing market dynamics are driving our customers' priorities, shown on the left of this slide, and these are clearly increasing in importance and urgency to overmatch the threat. In essence, our customers are looking to the defense industry to help them build greater resilience, rapid modernization and deliver defense innovation at pace. Our mission-critical capabilities, shown on the right, specifically R&D, engineering services, test and training and mission support and operations, are highly relevant and aligned to enabling our customers achieve their changing national priorities, as evidenced by this year's record order intake. Let me give you 4 good examples that show how we use these capabilities through partnering to enable our customers' mission. Following the U.K.'s decision to accelerate the DragonFire laser-directed energy weapon into service, we have rapidly mobilized this program with our partners and secured GBP 58 million of orders in the year. This next-generation capability would not be possible without our disruptive laser technology enabled by our focus on long-term R&D. Under the engineering delivery partner contract, we deliver advanced engineering services that are critical to national programs and frontline operational capability. We enable these outcomes by leading a thriving ecosystem of more than 250 small to medium enterprises in the U.K. to deliver the very best engineering solutions. In the U.S., we provide 24/7 persistent surveillance and mission support to protect the Southern border through the Tethered Aerostat Radar System program that both myself and Martin mentioned earlier. This program also provides us with credibility to pursue a number of significant opportunities in Europe, where there is increased demand for persistent surveillance solutions along the borders of the Eastern Flank, our nearest opportunity being in Poland. And finally, within the LTPA, we have established a drone center of excellence to get new uncrewed air systems into service at pace, learning lessons from Ukraine. Whilst SMEs are driving rapid product innovation in this area, by partnering with us and leveraging our engineering and test capabilities, we're enabling them to move from concept to frontline capability faster with the recent system now being exported into Ukraine. All of these examples demonstrate how we are deeply embedded with our customers and partners, delivering cutting-edge technology and services to enable current and future warfare at pace. Now regarding the long-term partner agreement, I'm delighted to confirm that earlier this morning, we announced a 5-year GBP 1.5 billion contract extension. Through this extension, we will provide mission-critical test and evaluation and training capabilities through to 2033 as the U.K. MOD's strategic partner for T&E. Under the contract, we will continue to deliver and modernize strategic T&E capabilities that are critical to major U.K. equipment programs and future upgrades. For example, Type 23 to Type 26 frigates, Tempest -- sorry, Typhoon to Tempest combat aircraft and Vanguard to Dreadnought nuclear submarines. As part of this extension, we will also transform the LTPA for next-generation defense technology in areas such as directed energy, hypersonics and uncrewed systems. In addition, in partnership with MOD, we are launching a T&E innovation gateway to attract SMEs and new entrants to the sector to drive greater defense innovation and economic growth from the U.K.'s T&E enterprise. Whilst we are already seeing increased demand for our services from NATO, these changes will also further attract other allies, strengthening the U.K.'s position as a world-leading center for T&E and training. Financially, the extension provides excellent long-term visibility, with approximately GBP 300 million per annum revenue and high-quality earnings. Investment will continue at approximately GBP 50 million per year, generating appropriate and consistent returns. Securing this LTPA extension is a major milestone for the company and provides a strong platform to put us at the center of defense innovation in the U.K. and enabling further international growth. Having secured the LTPA extension, we start the year with a record order backlog of GBP 5 billion, providing a firm foundation for the company. This backlog, combined with our 5-year qualified and prudent pipeline of GBP 10 billion, is worth more than GBP 15 billion, providing good visibility at 8x our FY '25 revenue. We've built this visibility by focusing on our customers' needs, partnering with industry and winning larger, longer-term programs. I'd like to give you further insight into our backlog of embedded programs and pipeline of associated opportunities. On the right, I'm showing 15 of our major programs where we have strong incumbent positions that build up to more than half of our annual revenue. This solid base in our home markets gives us a platform to deliver on contract growth, win new business and leverage our capabilities for multinational expansion. The opportunities to leverage our capabilities and create value across the group are illustrated by the flags, including examples such as DragonFire technology from the U.K. into Australia, threat representation from the U.K. into the U.S. and persistent surveillance from the U.S. into Europe. Whilst we may not win all of these opportunities, our pipeline is robust and prudent, with many additional growth opportunities well beyond the GBP 10 billion shown here. Overall, our record backlog, including the LTPA extension, combined with our strong pipeline, gives us significantly enhanced revenue visibility and underpins our confidence in creating long-term value. So in summary, our financial performance in the fourth quarter was not as anticipated due to tough external market conditions impacting our U.K. and U.S. short-cycle work, and we've taken an impairment charge to reflect the restructuring underway in the U.S. Following my new leadership appointments, we have reviewed the business and taken decisive actions to address the operational issues that impacted our short-term performance with a disciplined focus across the portfolio. The long-term fundamentals of the company remains strong, and we have a clear strategy to create value across the group, positioning us at the center of defense innovation for future warfare. And finally, including the LTPA extension, we now have a record order backlog of GBP 5 billion. This, combined with the strong alignment of our mission-critical capabilities to our customers' needs, provides confidence and visibility in delivering medium- to long-term growth. Thank you. Martin and I will be now happy to take questions.

Sash Tusa from Agency Partners. I just wondered if I could ask a couple of questions about Global Solutions. First of all, to check that I understand, I think the issue of the various charges, Global Solutions reported a profit of GBP 16 million for the full year. But just to check, that was after GBP 25 million of charges. So the underlying -- the baseline from which you would hope to at least develop this year is, I think, kind of GBP 40 million. Is that correct?

That's correct, yes.

Great. And then more broadly, for Global Solutions. You've talked about the 4 product areas that you want to focus on. How much of Global Solutions business at the moment is not in those 4 areas? And what happens to that? And specifically, what's your residual exposure to government services, government IT, which has been a particularly bumpy area for pretty much every participant?

Thanks. I'll just clarifying on the Global Solutions and for you all because I'm sure we'll get a question about sector guidance. And then, so you're completely correct. So actually, if you add back the GBP 25 million, then you get to around circa 9% margin, which is, in essence, what we -- what underpins the group 11% guide. So EMEA Services, we expect to be in the 11% to 12% range; in Global Solutions, around 9% margin this year, as we build back and do the restructuring.

And if I pick up the second question, Sash, on how much is related to those 4 streams. So the 4 streams that we've mentioned are around the U.S., which is clearly the majority of Global Solutions. And just to recap for everybody, as we've come through FY '25, as we've learned the exposure and where we saw volatility in some of the short-term -- short-cycle work, those are the areas that we are deemphasizing going forward. And what we are reemphasizing is where we've got good long-term incumbent positions because we have differentiated capability aligned to national security. So the 4 areas in the U.S. where we've refined our strategy, first of all, in the area of solutions, we're focusing on research and development and how that exploits into innovative products that are enduring. We see sensors and targets being key elements of that revenue stream that we expect enduring and growing capability. Secondly, also related to solutions, our maritime systems capability where, again, we have very good long-term incumbency on the aircraft carrier program and also the Virginia-class submarine, both of these are very long-term established programs. The third stream is in our engineering services offerings. And you'll have heard us mention, both of us 2, very strong contracts that we have through advances with the Space Development Agency and the Strategic Capabilities Office. They are very strong and growing. And then finally, in the area of mission support and operations where we have the persistent surveillance system programs through TARS, and again, that gives us a strong growing reference in the U.S. and also opportunity to leverage that capability into Europe and NATO. So those are the 4 areas that we are focused on. And in terms of how that connects with our U.S. performance, that is absolutely the vast majority of our U.S. performance going forward, as we've really reflected on the lessons of the year and how we've reduced effectively the volatility of that short-cycle work moving forward. Now you did mention Avantus specifically, and you would have noticed in both of our commentary, Avantus as a business performed flat in terms of revenue. That is slightly lower than what we originally guided this time last year. And actually, the reason for that is a slight slowdown in the federal IT area that you mentioned. And if we were to extract that, the underlying growth inside the Avantus business actually performed particularly well through those SCO, SDA and TARS contracts, where we saw just over I think it's just over 10% on-contract growth. And that really gives us through the Avantus acquisition a solid foundation on these long-term incumbent positions, which gives us the confidence for the refined strategy that we've set out in the U.S.

Go ahead, Rich.

It's Richard Paige from Deutsche Numis. Three from me, please. I guess, the compelling question I get...

Only 3?

Just help myself to that. Constantly get incoming on where we are with the U.S Obviously, you've announced this restructuring refinement of where we are and obviously following on from the earlier question. Where are we in that whole program? Are we now solid base and moving forward? Are we still restructuring in -- at the start of this year? More importantly, obviously, this realignment around the U.S. core areas of operation, what does that mean for Q4 in FY '26 in terms of the guidance? Will we be reliant on that? EDPs -- moving to EMEA Services, EDP had another good year. Where are we in terms of maturity of that contract? Can we still see that grow? And then on the last piece, can I just ask on the -- one small one on the exceptionals? I noticed again there was a charge against the acquisitions. Are we -- is that the end of that?

So maybe I'll do U.S. and EDP. Martin, you might want to come back with a few more adds on the U.S. and then you could take the exceptionals. So on the U.S., I think it builds upon my answer though I was just giving to U.S. In terms of the U.S. restructuring, you'll know that we announced that back in March. And really, that was a result of Martin and I with Iain Stephenson and Tom Vecchiolla reviewing the business. And I think I would just stop and think about, there were really 2 critical components in that restructuring. So first of all, we took an active decision to resize the business aligned with the market demand and the market priorities that we saw as enduring, that we could really build a solid base our performance from. And then secondly, we then refined the strategy in the way that I just described on those 4 areas, which is more than about how we are confident in medium- to long-term growth. That restructuring, as with many things in the U.S., is a lot faster than we would see in U.K. and Europe. That's launched. It's announced. It's underway. And I would expect the majority of that resizing to be complete probably early -- so early to late summer this year, well before the end of the half. So that's where that is in progress. In terms of your question about Q4 weighting, obviously, that is one of the major learning points, and we were subjected to the geopolitical uncertainty and volatility that, I guess, all of us were surprised to live through in our fourth quarter. And that would have been very difficult for anybody to really predict until that market environment ensued. But of course, what that does mean to us is that, that meant that we had volatility. And therefore, we take an active decision to design that out of our forward planning. We don't want that volatility in our business. And I think as Martin has already shared with a few analysts this morning, our plan on our guidance does not rely on that again for this year. And again, that component of the business, whilst we still have that product business, whilst we've resized it, it gives us opportunity. But what we don't want to do is plan that short-cycle volatility into it. On EDP, yes, you're right, EDP has had another good year. You'll have seen that in the detail, in the numbers, and that program is performing well. I think the main things to really reinforce on EDP, and I gave a live example about how it's really delivering real critical capability for the future, but also frontline capability, some of the network systems that have been deployed and the Carrier Strike Group going through to the Far East have come through EDP, and there are plenty of others. I think it really goes to the heart of what we expect to see coming out of the SDR when that gets published, which is how do we really as an industry get the best of industry, get the best innovation, get the best from small to medium enterprises to deliver faster and better outcomes for defense. And the EDP contract is highly innovative. It's delivering significant savings for the customer and helping them deliver capabilities at pace. And we run an ecosystem of more than 250 companies delivering that program. And I think that means it's well positioned. We're looking at further improvements to that. I think I've shared in this forum before, we're always looking at how we can modernize and improve the way that we work with our customers in the industry. We're looking at increasing -- we've already invested in increasing digitization of those services to make them even more relevant. So performing well as is. Expect it to be really relevant to the SDR. And we, as a company, proactively see how do we lever that even further. And I would also say, if you look at the pipeline chart that we shared in the back, the way that we're looking to innovate and modernize around this approach to engineering services, we're probably leading that in the U.K. But we also see multinational expansion opportunity of that in the medium to long term into other adjacent markets such as the U.S. and even with our increasing focus on NATO-related country. I was in Poland a few weeks ago. They're asking to see something similar. So early days, but that type of innovation across the industrial base, I think plenty of customers are going to look for it. So it's a foundation contract for the long term. Martin, do you want to pick up on the adds on U.S. ?

Yes, just a couple of points. I mean, the Q4 point, as I said in the presentation and is in the slides, and we've got nearly 90% cover in Global Solutions. That is obviously reflective. I mean, we're, in essence, planning on a -- guiding on a flat performance in Global Solutions in the U.S., and we'll very much treat things like robot sales and other things as upside to that. We clearly could still have opportunities that we're definitely looking to pursue and prosecute. So it's not there isn't without opportunity, but we wanted to just shift the emphasis of take out the volatility from the guidance as to where we are. And then I think on the exceptionals, then on the acquisition area, this relates to Air Affairs acquisition and closing out a few final things on Avantus, but we're now done on both of those.

Does that answer your questions, Rich?

It's Joel Spungin from Investec. I got a couple of questions. Can I just come back on the U.S. and the review of the U.S. business and the focus on the 4 areas, just in terms of the other question? So to be clear, there are no parts of the U.S. business that you would sort of consider to be potentially areas that you would wish to exit now or anything like that or that are under review for the future. And second question, I just wonder if you could talk about the extension to LTPA a little bit. I noted in the statement, you mentioned the GBP 166 million incremental there. Is there anything in the sort of new next phase of LTPA that is significantly different, either from a margin or a risk perspective? Or is it pretty much a continuation of the structure as it was before?

Yes. Okay. So maybe I'll do both. Martin, you can add to both the points I miss out. So in terms of the U.S. review, I think I really covered -- I mean, obviously, we always keep a portfolio review open. But I think the important thing through this restructuring is we've done a resize to align to market demand. We've reduced that volatility to that short-cycle work. And then importantly, that gives us a solid base to go forward. And I think we're comfortable with that overall resizing aligned to that -- those 4 areas. I think to go back on my first answer to Sash, I think one thing we've really learned in the U.S. is you need that deep incumbency. You need those long-term contracts, particularly given the scale of the market. And whilst some may say, "Well, you've said this before," I think we've really got a learning in the 4 areas that we have described. And I think I've summarized them. They are deep programs. They are national priorities. And in that particular area of expertise, they're very solid for the long term. So we've really thought through like the second iteration of the strategy to give us that solid base and remove the volatility. In terms of the LTPA, I mean, 2 halves to your question. I think, in terms of margin and risk profile, no change. But in terms of the capabilities and the impact, really significant opportunity about aligning it with the defense reform needs. I mentioned directed energy, uncrewed air systems and hypersonics. These as you'll know from just reading the commentary about defense, these are the future defense and security capabilities. And I think the approach that we've agreed with the U.K. to really look at how do we open up the access and make it more attractive for SMEs, new entrants, disruptors to the sector as well as those are well established in the sector, it really does mean that we can think about the LTPA going forward as a very different contract, something that is, really as I've described, a center for innovation. The U.K. and its allies really needs to increase productivity and the pace of innovation to overmatch the enemy. And I think this is a very solid contract with good modernization, and it will attract in and drive a lot more change in terms of military capabilities. And I think it also plays very well to wider economic growth. So we expect to drive growth on this. I think we can think about this as a growth platform because it's in the interest of the government. It's going to be interest of those that use it, whether that's in the U.K. or greater attraction from NATO. Martin?

Just to put a couple of numbers around that for you, Joel, especially on the LTPA. I mean, in FY '25, we did about GBP 270 million of just core work and then about GBP 70 million of tasking work. As you've seen from today's announcement from the GBP 1.54 billion plus the extra GBP 160 million, as you'll see, that does create as Steve says, this is a growth engine for us as well as great long-term visibility. And yes, we're comfortable on the contractual terms. And you'll notice from the investment level, it's going to run roughly at about that GBP 50 million a year. This year, it was -- last year, it was GBP 43 million. So cash flow model, cash distribution, et cetera, all not impacted by this, all very much in line with what we've laid out. So we're very comfortable and pleased with it.

David Farrell from Jefferies. Three questions. You talked about leadership change in the U.S. There's also been some leadership change in Australia where the Chief Executive has changed. Can you just maybe talk through what's happened there? Is that performance related? Or is that of his own volition? Obviously, it's a period of flux for the organization. You previously had a GBP 2.4 billion revenue target in 2027 that assumed high single-digit organic revenue growth. Do you think, ultimately, QinetiQ ends back at delivering high single-digit organic revenue growth? And then my final question is in terms of European defense expenditure. You have optically relatively low level of revenue out of Europe. But clearly, some of that comes through in the U.K. defense figure. What number do you think it is in absolute terms? And what do you think you can grow it to?

Maybe I'll do leadership in Europe, and maybe you want to pick up medium-term guidance, which that really gets. So I think on the leadership, I mean, both of them, not performance-related. I think what we've done is we've evolved our strategy, is really looked at the skills and the capabilities that we need. In Australia, particularly, we're really focusing specifically on the Australian business and the home market. And really, it's right that, that change occurred, and we've got to the right outcome with our team and the skills that we need to grow from. In terms of Europe, in fact, we dug out the specifics for you, Europe is currently around 3% of our revenue. That breaks into 2 halves. Half of that is our German business, and half of it is our product-related sales, mainly targets into European-related customers. Clearly, and I mentioned it in the presentation, Europe is the most significant shift in increases to long-term spending. And you will have noted, I described that we're increasing our strategic focus on NATO and its allies, in particular, European spending. So whilst it's small, it's absolutely strategically and, from a growth point of view, an area of focus. And clearly, there are a number of different mechanisms and routes to try to access that, whether it's from our basin in Germany, whether it's through our 3-year agreement that we've just got with NATO on accessing U.K. capabilities, whether it's leveraging the TARS program from the U.S. into the European countries along the Eastern Flank or whether it's about creating partnerships and cooperation opportunities, either with governments or indirectly through industry. And we're looking at all of those. So I think this is a long-term growth factor. It's not something that we're looking at changing guidance next year. But as I've described on our strategy, we'll absolutely retain our core focus on our AUKUS nations. That's our base. That's a majority of our revenue, but we're going to increase our focus on NATO in response to these changing geopolitical environment. So that's our current thinking, David. Do you want to..

Thanks, Steve. And then, David, just to clarify on the European, that's sort of the numbers Steve mentioned is from, obviously, actually into Europe. Then NATO is using -- NATO countries using the LTPA facilities comes through the tasking element. So through the GBP 70 million that I referenced. So an element of that would have been through -- generated, in essence, out of Europe as well. If you look to sort of guidance, we obviously haven't given midterm guidance today. We've just given in-year guidance. I think I've spoken to a number of you anyway today. I think given where we are with the strategic defense review still to come out in the U.K., still quite a lot of geopolitical uncertainty around some of U.S. angle. Just added Australia election and other things, then as we work through that and some of the restructuring then, we decided to just give 1 year guidance today. You'll notice from the pipeline and the opportunities in our narrative that we absolutely feel we're very well placed to benefit from increased structural defense spending increases and return to a lot higher growth levels, but we will come back and probably at the interim results in November and update you on that. But that's that time scale that we're looking at to probably give you some more, either firmer or formal midterm guidance at that stage.

Ben Varrow from RBC. Also 3 just on U.K. Intelligence. Can you give us a bit of color there on order cover for the year and what assumptions you've made on when you see order intake pick up? Second on -- also on U.K. Intel, you mentioned you've refocused some of the capabilities there. Keen to hear which areas you've maybe gone into and where is no longer of interest. Last point, just on the shorter term guide. Conscious you've taken out the top end. Is there anything that's changed over the last 2 months since that was issued to make you a little bit more cautious on that top end of the guide?

And maybe I should start on the second one of those because that will allow you to build out 1 and 3. Yes, thanks, Ben. I think as I mentioned, talking about U.K.I., I think the U.K. Intelligence was really about an adjustment for market sizing. I mentioned specifically support to operations and digital transformation. We definitely see and that comes back to my commentary about the SDR, those being areas where our capabilities are going to have increasing demand. But to specifically answer your question, are there areas of -- that we're no longer focused. The answer is no. It was more about sizing in terms of how the cycle of change occurred in the U.K. market. So the biggest driver for the impact I mentioned was science and technology, where there was a really marked reduction in science and technology. We expect that over the coming years to progressively return. But there are no capability areas in U.K. where we've decided to exit. And in fact, you'll see in actively in our communication, we talked about protecting the core skills and capabilities in U.K. for the long term. So it's really about a market adjustment and the market sizing. We expect that flow to improve during the course of this year and beyond and then return to growth. Martin?

So I'll just cover a couple of points there for you, Ben. So I think EMEA Services as a whole, the revenue covers just over 70%. U.K. Intelligence within that would be a little bit lower. We clearly have a lot higher cover in U.K. Defense as you would expect. But I think, again, to sort of shape it, as we talked about, U.K. Intelligence did around GBP 435 million last year. We're, in essence, assuming in our guidance that, that stays pretty flat. So again, some of the drop off in certainly the science and technology spend that we saw in year, we're assuming modest recovery in that. So again, we've taken a cautious view in the outlook if that comes on faster post the strategic defense review, that would be upside. But -- so I think we're very comfortable going into the position with the guide we have there under U.K. Intelligence based off last year and the rightsizing. And I think sort of based on that, and it's linked to what has changed, I mean, to keep it really simple for you, we expect the U.K. Defense business that is roughly 50% of the revenues of the group to grow 6%, 7%. And other areas like U.K. Intelligence, as I just mentioned, the U.S. business, we're expecting pretty stable. And we've taken, as we've said a couple of times today, that cautious view around the short-cycle work as we go into, and I think you'd probably expect that from us as a management team given last year, and we're working through this volatility. So want to treat the short-cycle work as upside to the guide going forward. And hopefully, we'll update you during the year as to how that progresses and once we get through some of the government resolutions that we're expecting in the near term. Hopefully, that's clear.

Just one. I just wanted to follow up on some of the questions on LTPA. You said it's roughly -- the contract extension you've announced says roughly GBP 300 million. But GBP 300 million a year, does that -- should we think about that as covering, operating, maintaining upgrading the estate and all tasking is on top of that? Or is the tasking on top? Is there a take-or-pay element? And then the tasking work that you talked about is the icing on the cake because that's effectively incremental volume...

Yes, the quick answer is yes. I know, as Martin described, I think you referred what was this year's non-tasking...

GBP 270 million.

GBP 270 million. So the GBP 300 million, which is obviously an average of GBP 1.5 billion relates to the GBP 270 million and then tasking. So if I take an example like the NATO exercise that we're just doing, that's got tasking work. That's on top of our base delivery quite rightly, as you described, delivering the service, modernizing the service, maintaining the service and building in these transformational projects that I mentioned. Is there any more?

Just got a couple of questions from the web guys, all based on Europe really, some of which you've kind of answered. So the first one comes from [ Marcus Holman ] at Corcam asking about what parts of QinetiQ will see the biggest impact from European investments into security and defense. And then following on from that, we have got Robert Donald at Schroders asking, are there any impacts from the recent U.K. EU Summit in London on your future outlook? Does it open up your ability to tender for EU-based projects? Thank you.

So if I -- first of all, where are the areas that we would be focused on? I would primarily pull out 3 areas that we would be focused on. So first of all, test and training, I think that that's quite clear from some of the examples that we've covered in the presentation. We have absolutely U.K. unique test and evaluation and training capabilities that are highly attractive to NATO allies. I mentioned Germany, Spain, Italy coming to use our test and evaluation capabilities because they're unique, and they haven't got the equivalent capabilities available to them. And I see that as an area of growth to attract in further allies from NATO and Europe. The second area I'd mention is our mission support and operations in the area of persistent surveillance. I briefly mentioned in the presentation effectively taking our reference program of the Tethered Aerostat Radar System into Europe and the nearest opportunity for us being with Poland. There are a number of countries in Eastern Europe that want to really strengthen their security along their borders off the Eastern Flank, and that gives us a really significant opportunity to use that reference and build effectively. And some people calling it an Eastern Shield, an Eastern shield of persistent surveillance to protect that board. That's the second area of growth. And maybe longer term, and I briefly mentioned, is I think a number of the NATO and Eastern European countries are going to be looking at just buying product, but actually building an industrial base. And building an industrial base requires the fundamentals of research and development. It requires technology development. It understands -- it is about understanding how you buy defense capability, how you inter-operate. These are quite significant shifts if countries want to build their own national capabilities. And longer term, partnering with a company like QinetiQ, where we have those capabilities that are critical to countries like the U.K., Australia and the U.S., that is also a long-term opportunity in Europe. So those 3 areas, I would say if we step back from the immediate, are long-term vectors of growth for us with NATO and Europe. In terms of the question specifically on the U.K. EU summit, I think the security and defense partnership is a good thing. It shows intent between the U.K. government and the European Union to allow British companies to access that funding. I think we need to reflect that it's very early days in that U.K. to European cooperation since Brexit, but that's an opportunity. And I think we're engaged, we're talking to the right people in the government in the U.K. and increasingly in NATO and in the relevant countries where we see immediate opportunities. So we'll work that through in time.

Thank you, Steve. We do have analysts on the conference call, so perhaps we can invite them to ask any questions if they see fit.

[Operator Instructions] We do not have any questions in the queue from the audio audience, sir.

There's no further questions, Steve. Any further questions from the room?

Okay. Well, if you do have any further questions afterwards, we'll also -- for those in the room, we'll be around. Happy to answer any further questions. And if anybody online has any further questions, then please e-mail Stephen, and we'll answer those in due course. And with that, thank you very much for your time. Thank you.

Thank you so much. Cheers.