Rémy Cointreau SA ($RCO)

Earnings Call Transcript · June 4, 2026

ENXTPA FR Consumer Staples Beverages Earnings Calls 90 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Marie-Amelie De Leusse

Executives
#1

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for being with us this morning for Rémy Cointreau's '25/'26 Full Year Results. I'm here with Franck Marilly, our CEO; and Luca Marotta, our Deputy CEO and CFO. The both of them will, of course, take you through the detailed results. Before we review the year in more detail, I would like to share a few reflections on where we stand today and how the Board views the future of the group. Firstly, it is with a clear head that we must acknowledge the reality we live in. Over the past 3 years, Rémy Cointreau has operated in an exceptionally challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. At the same time, our performance has fallen short of our ambitions. Consumer behaviors are evolving. Market dynamics are changing, and it is key for us to adapt accordingly. Yet despite these numerous challenges, we remain absolutely confident in our ability to create value. We own a portfolio of exceptional brands with significant untapped potential. As illustrated by the image introducing this section, we believe our brands are uniquely positioned in a world where experiences rather than ownership increasingly becomes the focus of our customers. Our brands are not simply offering products. They embody and deliver experiences by their very nature, creating memorable moments of sharing, celebration and connection. We are also encouraged by the first signs of recovery emerging across several key markets. Beyond cognac, we see attractive opportunities to accelerate growth and further diversify our sources of value creation. This confidence is reflected in the launch of RC Forward. More than a cost-cutting plan, it is an ambitious transformation program designed to unlock the group's full potential. Its objective is to simplify the way we operate, accelerate decision-making and strengthen execution across the organization. By generating additional resources through efficiencies across everything we do, it will allow us to reinvest behind our brands and growth opportunities while building a company that is less cyclical, more agile and more resilient. Finally, throughout this journey, we remain guided by a long-term perspective. We will continue to invest in the strength and desirability of our brands while maintaining disciplined financial stewardship. As a family-controlled company with a long-term horizon, we remain focused on creating sustainable value for all our stakeholders and on strengthening the group for future generations. With this in mind, I will now hand over to Franck, who will review our performance and priorities in greater detail.

Franck Marilly

Executives
#2

Thank you, Marie Amelie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I will begin with a quick overview of full year '25/'26. Luca will detail our financial results, and I will conclude by giving you an update on the outlook and of course, our transformation plan, RC Forward. Let's begin with a review of our full year business performance. I'm now on Slide 5. Group sales totaled EUR 935.3 million, representing a slight organic growth of plus 0.2% versus last year. COP reached EUR 165.4 million, down minus 11.5% on an organic basis, resulting in a margin of 17.7%, down 2.6 points organically. This evolution mainly reflects the decline in gross margin, including the impact of tariff as well as an unfavorable price/mix and higher production cost. This was partially offset by disciplined control of overhead costs while we took the deliberate decision to maintain marketing investment at a high level with A&P at 19.7% of sales. Despite a challenging context, we have taken important initiatives to protect as much as possible our free cash flow generation. Consequently, it improved from EUR 19.2 million last year to EUR 53.8 million. In this context, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio increased slightly, reaching 3.22x at the end of March. While these results are clearly not sufficient and remain below our ambitions, they are nonetheless consistent with the objectives we had set for the year and represent a first step in the right direction. These financial results have been achieved in a responsible way. Rémy Cointreau continued to deploy its sustainable exception -- this road map and confirmed together our progress in its transformational journey. Under a Star pillar, the group committed in 2022 to aligning its climate trajectory with the Paris Agreement with targets validated by the science-based targets initiative. For the second consecutive year, the group's carbon emissions remain ahead of its trajectory, both for direct emissions and across its value chain with a 17% reduction versus the 2021 baseline. This momentum was supported by concrete initiatives implemented across the group's houses, including the expansion of solar electricity production. The group also continued its trajectory to reduce water withdrawal, particularly at sites located in water-stressed areas. The objective is to achieve a 20% reduction by 2030 compared with '22/'23 levels. Once again, this year, performance exceeded the target trajectory with water withdrawals down minus 36%. This achievement reflects the continued mobilization of production sites around treatment process optimization, loss reduction and infrastructure improvements. Regarding agricultural sourcing, the group continued supporting suppliers towards sustainable or responsible agriculture certifications, reaching 77% certified strategic agricultural raw materials compared with 68% last year. In addition, a key milestone was achieved in 2025 by Domain Dill Glass and Telmont, which obtained regenerative organic certified ROC certification for their owned estates, reinforcing their pioneering position in regenerative agriculture. Lastly, under the people pillar, the group confirmed further progress in diversity and equal opportunity with women now representing 50% of the Executive Committee, exceeding the permanent target of 40%. Full year '25/'26 was clearly a transition year for Rémy Cointreau, a year where we started with building momentum while remaining fully aware that we are still at the beginning of a journey. Over the past 12 months, our priority was first to stabilize the business before reaccelerating growth. In this environment, we remain fully committed to our long-term value strategy while also demonstrating greater pricing agility whenever necessary to adapt to local market conditions and protect competitiveness. We also accelerated innovation with launches aligned with evolving consumer trends and new consumption occasions. In the U.S., we started to regain ground with Remy Martin gaining plus 0.6% points of market share, including plus 1.1 points on VSOP, an encouraging first step in our ambition to reconquer this key market. At the same time, we continue to leverage our key strengths in China, where our brands further reinforce their leadership position. These are important first steps even if we are not yet where we want to be. At the same time, we remain extremely focused on defending profitability in what remain a very adverse environment. In this context, protecting our industry-leading gross margin remain a key focus. We also implemented strict discipline on overhead cost without compromising our A&P investment and launched multiple mitigation initiatives to limit the impact of tariff. Finally, protecting cash generation and debt leverage as much as possible remains central to our actions throughout the year. We took decisive actions to protect cash, optimize working capital through a reduction of OW commitments, and we reduced further our level of CapEx to essentials. Finally, this year was also about preparing for the future. We started evolving our organization to become more agile, more efficient and more business-driven. This transformation journey is essential to strengthen our execution capabilities, accelerate decision-making and support a broader recovery over the coming years. A quick word on some of the year's achievement that helped stabilize top line performance across our key regions. Starting with the U.S. on Slide 8. After 2 years of underperformance, our brands are regaining momentum and regaining market share, both in cognac and across our key liquors and spirits brands. Our total depletions remained negative at the end of March, but continued to improve sequentially in what remains a difficult and slowing market environment. While our liquor and spirit portfolio volume depletions are still positive, there is still work to be done in cognac. There are several positive elements to highlight in China, which is clearly the markets where we are significantly outperforming. Hemi Martin gained an additional 3 points of market share in volume depletions during calendar year 2025, mainly driven by the strong momentum of Club -- at the same time, we further strengthened our leadership position in e-commerce, gaining an additional 10 points of market share. Our last key achievement that I would like to highlight on Slide 10 was also our ability to leverage additional growth opportunities across the portfolio. First, we significantly strengthened our innovation pipeline with launches spanning cognac, liquors and spirits, ready-to-drink formats and new consumer occasions. These innovations are helping us to reinforce the brand desirability, recruit new customers and adapt to evolving consumption trends while remaining fully aligned with our premium positioning. We also accelerated our presence in categories and formats with strong momentum, particularly around convenience, mixology and accessibility. At the same time, global Travel Retail delivered a strong rebound with sales up 15% versus last year. This channel is clearly a strategic priority for us over the medium term. Today, we believe our position remains under scale relative to peers, meaning there is still meaningful upside potential to capture going forward. This gives us confidence in our ability to progressively broaden our growth levers beyond our traditional markets and consumption occasions.

Luca Marotta

Executives
#3

Thank you, Franck. Now let's look into financial statements, starting with the full year income statement. As already mentioned, organic sales were up by 0.2%. Based on this, gross profit decreased by 5% in organic terms, implying 3.7 points of deterioration in gross margin. This full year gross margin contraction has been driven by incremental tariff custom duties and unfavorable price/mix effect and some production cost pressure. At the same time, sales and marketing net expenses were down by 2.8% organically. But within this total, we have the A&P expenses line down by 3% organically, representing 19.7% of sales. i.e., an organic decrease of 0.7 points. Despite the continued pressure on sales, we have decided to maintain our investments behind our brands to protect their desirability and to be prepared for the recovery. However, we did that while keeping a clear focus on efficiency and selectivity. As a consequence, we increased the share of below-the-line spending relative to the above the line during the period. As a result, the share of below-the-line investment was higher compared to the above-the-line spend. Above the line spend, what it is, as a reminder, is traditional media digital PR, which represented 45% of the A&P, while below the line more directly driven to sales and a quicker payback on volumes and values, investment represented 55%. In complement, additionally, digital represented more than 65%, 2/3 of global ATL. So you can say that around 30% of our total A&P spending is digital. Now let's focus on distribution costs, which decreased by 2.5% organically, but also including a one-off related to a compensation indemnity, as you remember, already recorded in H1. Administrative net expenses were almost flat on an organic basis, reflecting continued discipline on overhead costs following optimization made last year. Overall, current operating profit was down minus 11.5% organically and minus 23.8% on a reported basis after accounting for a negative currency impact of minus EUR 26.6 million. In terms of margin profile, CAP margin stood at 17.7%, down 4.4 points as reported, but only 2.6 points organically. Now let's take a look at the group's operating -- current operating margin bridge. As said, it was down 4.4 points as reported, reaching 17.7%. This breaks down into an organic decrease of 2.6 points and a negative currency effect in terms of points of 1.8 points. The organic evolution of the current operating margin largely reflects a deterioration of the gross margin. This deterioration was reduced by ongoing discipline in distribution and structure costs. More detail, gross margin, as already said, was down 3.7 points, of which more or less 40% is linked to incremental custom duties alongside tariff U.S. and price undertake in China, alongside an unfavorable price mix, mostly pricing in the current environment and inflation related to cost of goods, particularly on cognac, ODD and cost of goods. Second, A&P ratio decreased slightly by 0.7 points, as said, but remained at the high level compared to the turnover delivered. Third, the ratio of distribution and structural cost was down by 0.4 points and decreased by EUR 3.7 million in absolute terms. Please remember that this is a key achievement considering the reintegration of around EUR 11 million of last year one-off savings. Let's move on, on the remaining items in the income statement on Page 14. In the full year '25/'26, operating profit included EUR 13.9 million of other noncurrent income or expenses. I'll be back on that point. Financial charges slightly decreased from EUR 42.6 million to EUR 42.1 million. As well, I will go into more details on during the next slides. Reported tax rate was almost stable, flat at 28.7% -- no additional change related to exceptional corporate tax contribution in France has been recorded, you remember last year. So no additional this year. But excluding nonrecurring items, tax rates comparably increased by 1 point from 27.2% to 28.2%. For the next year, so already started '26-'27, we expect tax rate to land at around 29%. As a result, net profit group share came in at EUR 78.7 million, down 35.1% on a reported basis, i.e., a net margin of 8.4%, down 3.9 points. Earnings per share came out at EUR 1.51, down 36% reportedly, but equivalent to EUR 1.71 20 more, excluding nonrecurring items. As said, now we need to analyze the nonrecurring items. Mainly inside this EUR 13.9 million, we have to highlight 2 different elements, notably an impairment on Westland assets for EUR 9.5 million and restructuring costs in Benelux related to the evolution of the distribution network. We are terminating our current distribution agreement and have launched an RFP for this cluster. This was the EUR 13.9 million negative, but we have also a tax shield effect, so EUR 3.4 million of positive nonrecurring tax items linked to this charge. A few comments on net financial expenses, as promised, which amounted to EUR 42.1 million in full year '25, '26 compared to EUR 42.6 million for the previous one. Let's start with net debt servicing costs. We were almost stable in absolute terms at EUR 33.6 million, and our cost of debt decreased from 4.07% to 3.86%. Net currency gains stood at 0.8% this year versus a loss of EUR 1.3 million last year. And finally, other financial expenses stood at EUR 9.2 million in full year '25-'26. For the year '26, '27, we expect our financial charges globally to land at more than EUR 45 million. Now let's analyze the free cash flow generation and the net debt evolution on Page 17. As already announced and explained by Franck, free cash flow increased this year from EUR 19.2 million to EUR 53.8 million in '25/'26 or if you want, from EUR 27.6 million to EUR 58.2 million, excluding nonrecurring items. But on top, excluding EUR 28 million tax refund that we had in '24, '25 related to prior overpayment, this represents a significant improvement switching from a negative free cash flow on a comparable basis last year to EUR 53.8 million this year. This strong free cash flow improvement reflects a meaningful decrease in EBITDA, but underlying but more than offset by 2 factors. First, significant decrease of other working capital items outflow, i.e., as you can see, a positive variance effect of EUR 77.8 million, mostly driven by some phasing effect in trade payables between last year and this year. This improvement is very important, but not 100% of that can be considered as structural. In the same time, the working cap outflow related to ODV, the most strategic part, let me say that and other spirits in aging process was also down as expected by EUR 14.1 million due to the reduction of ODV purchases as part of the renegotiation of contract in March 2025. Overall, total working capital outflow evolution is significant favorable has been reduced by EUR 91.9 million. Second element, a decrease of the EUR 14.2 million of CapEx outflow following the optimization action that we decided on that line to protect even more at the maximum our free cash flow evolution. This was the operational part, but there are also other cash flow inflows outflows. In that case, other cash flows outflows increased, so it's a negative one, by EUR 23.9 million. This was mostly driven by the cash dividend paid last year from EUR 41 million to EUR 58.8 million. As a result, at the end of March 2026, our net financial debt stood at EUR 690.4 million, up by EUR 15 million from March '25. Consequently, a ratio is up from 2.4 in March 2025 to 3.22 in March 26. Please pay attention, looking forward, our objective is clear, remaining below 3.5 in this kind of ratio, so below clearly our covenant at the end of the full year '26, '27. On Slide #18, as a matter of fact of additional focus we will be putting and we will be putting even more on free cash flow and conversion of debt into EBITDA in the future. Let's talk about these indicators, which is a very peculiar one for our industry, particularly for players heavily exposed to aging inventories. The analysis of its evolution highlights a strong year year-on-year volatility, primarily driven by changes in EBITDA. As you can see, during peak periods, 2021, the free cash flow conversion reached 45%, supported by the initial COVID-driven business boom and the measured level of ODV purchases. In '21, '22, free cash flow conversion was also high at 24%, driven by record high EBITDA during the COVID peak, but partially offset by the reinforcement -- strong reinforcement of our future ADV supply coverage. Structurally, our business model includes some inertia due to the today purchases being made and committed even before they will happen and to support future development and future growth. I've told you last year that a more normalized level, excluding the positive effects of COVID and the current adverse context and also up and down in other working capital items would be in the range of 15% to 20% range. While achieving a 27% free cash flow conversion rate this year is a very important effect despite the impact of tariff is a very positive outcome I insist, it is important to recognize that part of that performance also reflects a favorable phasing effect on trade payables. To conclude, in a nutshell, this is a great achievement considering all the challenges we had to face. It is sustainable, too early to say, but it is definitely our midterm goal. I'll be back even more clear on that during November presentation for the midterm plan. Now let's move on the impact of the currency hedges, a bit technical but important because EBITDA is also composed for a ratio by for exchanges. The group reported a negative translation impact of EUR 51.4 million on sales and a negative translation effect of EUR 26.6 million on operating profit in '25/'26. This mainly reflects the evolution of the U.S. dollar and the Chinese renminbi. In last year, '25-'26, we recorded a deterioration of the average euro-dollar conversion rate from 1.07 to 1.16, which is a huge negative swings. -- more dollar for the same euro and the euro in the same scale conversion rate from 7.76 to 8.23 for EUR 0.10. In addition, our average hedged rate deteriorated from 1.09 to 1.15 in terms of dollars in '25-'26 and deteriorated from RMB 65 to RMB 8.21 for 0.10 in '25/'26. This was the past. Let's look at the forecast for the full year '26-'27. Assuming a conversion rate of 1.19 on euro-U.S. dollar and 8.30 on euro-Chinesen renminbi as well as a hedge rate of USD 1.18 8.25 on RMB, we anticipate a negative impact between EUR 15 million and EUR 20 million on sales with a phasing 50-50 H1, H2 and between minus EUR 5 million and minus EUR 8 million, so far less your previous estimation -- our previous estimation 6 months ago for the year '26, '27 on operating profit, and this will happen mostly in H2. So still negative, but more modest and moderate compared to the previous estimation and we discussed together 6, 9 months ago. And you can read on the slide what is very important for you, the ForEx sensitivity by currency. As the evolution of the U.S. dollar exchange rate remained very volatile also. that of euro renminbi. We will continue to share with you an update every quarter. At this stage, for the year that just started '26-'27, we already covered more or less 100% of our net U.S. dollar exposure, but which around 60%, so more than the half of option. So we'll be flexible with some reactivity. On Chinese RMB, we already cover 75%, so a bit less of our net Chinese RMB forecast exposure, of which 55% of option. Now let's move on the balance sheet overview, where total assets liabilities stood at EUR 3.46 billion, up EUR 32 million compared to '24-'25. On the asset side, the global inventory increased by EUR 62 million to reach EUR 2.17 billion due to the purchase of the young ODV and an increase in our inventory levels given the current context. Inventories now represent 63% of our total assets, up 2 points from last year. This was the left side on the other part on the right side on liabilities, the shareholder equity is almost flat versus last year, mainly driven by the net income offset by the payment of the dividend related to the fiscal year of '24-'25. Net gearing, the group net debt-to-equity ratio was slightly up over the period from 35% to 36%, reflecting the increase of our financial debt. Now moving on the ROCE slide, Slide #21. Our ratio came in at 7.7% in '25, '26, down 2.6 points on a reported basis and down 1.4 points in organic terms. This includes an organic decrease of 1.4% in ROCE of the group brands and the negative swing in the Partner Brands ROCE. ROCE evolution is the result of an asymmetry clearly visible between an organic increase of 2.1% in employed capital and a strong organic decline, mathematically speaking, of minus 11.5% in C. The group continues to invest as part of this in long-term contracts. So it's quite normal to have this asymmetry so far. This is particularly the case for the Cognac division. Its ROCE declined by 1.7 points organically to 8.1% on the back of an increase, as I said, of 3.1% on employed capital and a COP decline of 12.6%. In '25, '26, the group continued to invest in aging inventories as part of this long-term contract, less than before, but still and to a lesser extent on CapEx. Talking about Lacos & Spirits division, ROCE decreased by 0.3 points, so margin decrease to reach organically 10.8%. This evolution reflects a decrease of the employed capital as we have more flexibility compared to the cognac or the long-term engagement, minus 1% organically and at the same time, a decrease of 3.1% in the operating profit. Let's get a look at the employed capital bridge on Slide 22. The overall amount increased by EUR 32.2 million, mainly split between an organic increase of EUR 45 million and the negative currency impact in that case, it's helpful, the negative impact of EUR 12.8 million. On organic side, the 2.1% year-on-year increase in capital employed is mostly driven by strong increase in hedging inventories, partially offset by strong optimization of the other working cap items. Next, Slide #23, let's talk about the yearly dividend. In light of the current environment and our focus on deleveraging, the Board has decided to submit for shareholder approval a temporary calibration of the dividend while maintaining an attractive level of shareholder return. At the AGM on July 21, 2026, shareholders will therefore be asked to approve an ordinary dividend of EUR 0.75 per share composed by EUR 0.5 in cash and EUR 0.25 with the option to receive the payment in cash per share. So there is a scrip option for 1/3 of the global amount. This proposal, mathematically speaking, represent still a 50% payout ratio based on EPS EUR 1.51 and a yield of 1.6%, 1.66 on the average share price over the fiscal year, which was EUR 45.07. Last year, the yield was EUR 2.22. So 50% payout even if the dividend is cut by 50% compared to the previous year. it will result in an expected cash outflow of maximum EUR 40 million to be compared to around EUR 59 million this year -- last year, '25, '26. This measured adjustment reflects our disciplined approach to capital allocation, protecting the balance sheet and supporting the deleveraging in the short term, while at the same time, remain confident in the group medium-term recovery and value creation potential. And clearly, on top, a shareholder return that remains attractive compared to the payout ratio that I showed just before. Thank you for your attention, and I will now hand over to Franck.

Franck Marilly

Executives
#4

Thank you, Luca. Before moving into the detailed guidance, -- let me first highlight the broader context in which this guidance has been built. Several variables remain uncertain, including the level of U.S. tariff and the potential reimbursement of tariffs already paid, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the global macroeconomic environment and consumer trends as well as ongoing regulatory restrictions on consumption in China. Some of these factors could potentially provide upside such as the reimbursement of tariff paid last year. However, while these external variables may still shape the year, our determination is very clear. We intend to perform, transform and remain resilient amid persistent volatility. To achieve this, we will leverage innovation and greater pricing agility, accelerate our non-cognac brands while capturing all available opportunities in cognac and turn the disruption in U.S. distribution into a growth opportunity. At the same time, we will not compromise on brand-building investment, but we will refocus A&P spending on fewer brands and regions to maximize impact. Finally, we will place a strong emphasis on execution, efficiency, early wins from RC [indiscernible] and a more agile organization to support delivery throughout the year. As you understood, top line recovery is my #1 priority. The recovery will be gradual, but the progress achieved in ' 25, '26 clearly needs to continue and further materialize in '26, '27. A number of initiatives are already underway across our key regions and brands, and I would like to highlight some of the key actions supporting our return to growth. Let me start with the U.S. on Page 26, where our ambition is very clear to continue outperforming the market and regain market shares. First, we want to continue leveraging the rapidly evolving distribution landscape in the U.S. to optimize our route to market and capture new opportunities. The ongoing reshaping of the industry creates opportunities for us to be more agile, more targeted and ultimately more effective commercially. At the same time, we will accelerate in small-sized format and further strengthen our revenue growth management capabilities. Innovation will also remain a key growth contributor. On cognac, the priority is clearly to rebuild momentum. We are launching a new global brand platform for Rémy Martin to reinforce desirability while revitalizing VSOP through range extensions, increased A&P support and stronger RGM execution. We also want to recruit new consumers and broaden consumption occasions, notably by capturing more spirit drinkers and developing new occasions with our Rémy national rollout. Beyond cognac, we see significant opportunities to accelerate our non-cognac categories through our key growth platforms, Quanttreu and the Botanist. Moving to China on Slide 27. Our objective is to continue to gain market share while leveraging the solid momentum of Remy Martin Club as a key growth engine. In cognac, the priority is first to sustain the strong performance of RM Club. This year, we will notably further leverage collaborations and culturally relevant activations. We also see some upside in VSOP, notably through stronger on-trade presence aimed at broadening occasions and recruiting younger consumers. At the same time, we will continue to leverage dinner and banquet occasions to revitalize high-end segments. Beyond cognac, we also intend to accelerate the non-cognac development to further diversify our growth profile in China. For [indiscernible], the ambition is to maintain our leadership position within liquors while accelerating growth through new opportunities linked to cocktail culture, younger consumers and more casual on-trade occasions. For Broukadi, the strategy is to evolve from a niche prestige positioning toward a more scalable super premium brand, benefiting from the steadily growing Chinese whiskey consumer base and changing consumption behaviors, increasingly focused on personal pleasure and experiential engagement. Finally, we also want to unlock additional channel opportunities across China. We will continue to leverage banquet occasions while adopting an increasingly client-centric approach and delivering a more seamless omnichannel experience. At the same time, we will support the growth of our non-cognac portfolio by expanding our presence in convenience stores and developing new on-trade opportunities. To accelerate these ambitions, we are also implementing a new commercial organization designed to strengthen execution and support our new phase of growth beyond the Guangdong province. Beyond the U.S. and China, we also have several sizable growth opportunities across the rest of the portfolio and geographies that can meaningfully enhance the group's growth profile. I'm now on Page 28. Starting with Global Travel Retail. A new organization will be implemented shortly to accelerate execution and sharpen focus on airports. We also want to accelerate our Louis 13s while leveraging the strong momentum currently seen on club exception. Innovation will remain an important contributor alongside greater pricing agility on Brukadi. Moving to emerging markets, which represent an important long-term growth opportunity for the group and a key pillar of our diversification strategy. To fully capture this potential, we will establish a dedicated business unit in second half, providing greater focus and allowing us to prepare these markets for faster future growth. In India, we are accelerating through a new route-to-market model that has been implemented since April and which should strengthen our commercial reach and execution capabilities. In Africa, we will continue to leverage the strong momentum generated by the successful launch of Rémy Martin VS in South Africa and further build on this encouraging start. And in Latin America, we see additional opportunities to accelerate growth, particularly in Brazil. Together, all these initiatives will help establish emerging markets as a meaningful new growth platform for the group over the coming years. Let me now turn to our guidance for '26, '27 on Slide 29. As discussed earlier, the environment remains volatile and visibility is still limited on several external parameters. Nevertheless, based on what we see today, we expect to return to organic sales growth for the year. On profitability, we expect COP margin to remain resilient despite the impact of tariff and to improve slightly organically. The total impact from tariff is currently estimated at around EUR 20 million, including approximately EUR 15 million in the U.S. and EUR 5 million in China based on the current assumptions. This represents an increase of EUR 5 million versus last year. Tariff developments in the U.S. continue to evolve rapidly. Based on the information available today, we have assumed a cautious 15% tariff rate on European imports. On foreign exchange, we expect a negative impact of around EUR 15 million to EUR 20 million on sales and around EUR 5 million to EUR 8 million on COP. At the same time, disciplined capital allocation will remain a key priority, notably through tight management of inventories and CapEx. Finally, maintaining our debt ratio below 3.5 at the end of the year is a key focus for the group. Beyond the short-term guidance, we're also taking decisive actions to strengthen the group structurally through RC Forward. This transformation plan is designed as a strong enabler to support our medium-term strategy and progressively reduce the group's dependency on macroeconomic cycles. The ambition is threefold. First, strengthen our foundation and better prepare the group for the future. Second, unlock additional top line growth through sharper and more effective execution across markets, brands and channels. And third, generate value across all levels of the organization in order to fuel top line growth while reinforcing profitability. As part of RC Forward, our ambition is to generate significant gross value creation of $100 million over the next 3 years, all things alike and at the constant foreign exchange versus '25, '26. The objective is to progressively deliver these gains by '28, '29 through a combination of top line acceleration, stronger commercial execution and procurement optimization. Three main levers will drive this plan. First, driving sizable top line project that will help shape our medium-term growth trajectory; second, improving sales execution across regions and channels; and third, unlocking procurement efficiencies through greater centralization and tighter discipline. At the same time, we're conducting an ongoing in-depth analysis across our current brand portfolio with no sacred cows. Overall, the gross efficiency gains would be equivalent to a 3-year COP CAGR of 17%, all things alike. Let me now briefly illustrate the 3 major battles at the core of RC Forward on Slide 32. The first battle is to drive sizable top line projects that can shape our medium-term growth trajectory. This includes launching a breakthrough cognac innovation in Q1 of '27, '28 in the U.S. aimed at recruiting new consumers and creating new occasions, unlocking the full potential of Remy Martin Exo, starting with Asia as a key market and fully capturing the potential of our Prestige division. At the same time, we intend to scale up emerging markets and accelerate the expansion of global travel retail, both of which represent important growth platforms for the future that we expect to double by '28, '29. The second battle is to improve sales execution. This starts with a full reassessment of our go-to-market models in the U.S., targeted route to market. in Europe and adapting sales forces to better capture white spaces opportunities in China. We also want to further strengthen revenue growth management and maximize returns on A&P investment by refocusing allocations on key brands and regions, optimizing media mix and improving ROI measurement capabilities. The third battle is procurement efficiency through greater centralization. The objective is to unlock synergies across markets and brands, notably in A&P purchasing, optimize the operating model, improve spend visibility and discipline centrally and challenge specification through packaging, respecification and supplier negotiations. Finally, all of this will be supported by a clear and more agile organization, notably through a clarification of our marketing operating model and a simplification of internal processes within support functions to ensure greater commercial focus and faster decision-making. Thank you very much. We are now very happy to take your questions.

Operator

Operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] We now have our first question from Edward Mundy from Jefferies.

Edward Mundy

Analysts
#6

So my first question is around this EUR 100 million gross uplift by fiscal '29. And I appreciate we might need to wait until November for a bit more detail. But as you think about the 3 main levers, Franck, of the 3 big buckets, are you able to provide a rough split between what falls in which bucket? And I think the market is really trying to understand how much of the EUR 100 million come from top line and how much of it comes from bottom line. And as part of that same question, do you have a sense of what level of reinvestment there might be, i.e., what portion of the growth might equal net? That's my first question. And then my second question is coming back to Slide 32, you alluded to a cognac innovation launch within the U.S. Would love to get a little bit more color around both the timing of that, why not potentially earlier? And also, where do you think within the cognac hierarchy that innovation might sit?

Luca Marotta

Executives
#7

Hello. That's Luca speaking. I will answer to the first one, and Franck, please feel free to complete. So the aim of the slide in which we highlight an objectives in 3 years, all things equals to an improvement of profitability of 70% in CAGR the next 3 years to be equal to EUR 100 million is to give you the magnitude of the engagement, the commitment that we are putting at the end of this journey. Franck highlighted in a clear way 4 elements, 3 of them more linked to the top line, one efficiency. So meaning the first part of the message is part of that very important part will be based on improving sales globally in terms of conversion of additional volumes in sales in terms of additional value for the same volume, so GTM and RGM on top, efficiency to be converted in sale faster and quicker and deeper in A&P and procurement. How much is the split of each layers, we will not disclose that now because this needs to be embedded in the strategic journey will analyze altogether on a longer period in November. But the first part of the message is that top line increase, top line execution and return on the same volume compared to today to be increased and A&P procurement will deliver a big part of this EUR 100 million, everything equals. The fourth one is that more agility, simplification of roles, accountability with an increase of direct responsibilization under the umbrella of a greater centralization on some topics to be more focused on overall all objectives to be concur. But in the slide, there was also the fifth line as well. Don't forget about the one. So this fifth element was that no cycle cows anymore inside our current brand portfolio. So it means that also proactive thinking in terms of asset rotation is not out of this. To your question in a very concrete way. So we will not disclose today by substream the detail of the EUR 100 million. The CAGR, it is 70%, but maybe will not be straight line also because at this stage, no final location has been made between us because [indiscernible] is an enabler. It's the flame. And then during the summer, we will use this flame to feed all of the work that needs to be done to be officialized to you, our Board of Directors before you in November to put that altogether in a global service of the midterm plan in which also the strategic part will be clearly combined to show you what this EUR 100 million and maybe more can be put under the service of what by brands, by region, by objectives. What does it mean? And then I will stop. No final location. We are on purpose preserving our own intellectual flexibility, depending also the market condition because we are clearly starting with some new rule of the games. We are much more aggressive on some topics. We are not denying our DNA, but we are changing a bit gears, improving speed, improving simplicity, improving what is the boldest in the long term, but market is part of the game. So if market also is a little bit more positive than today, this EUR 100 million. I'll tell you what, maybe can be bigger, but in the top line and top line means also additional cost investment to feed that. It is more complicated, can be more in the option 3 and 4 and 5. So more cost cutting. But this is not a cost-cutting plan. This is the enabler for a greater growth because at the end, if the free cash flow conversion rate to be improved, EBITDA and reduction of working capital is the name of the game. To do that, you have to have at the end of the game, more operating profit and less debt, less negative cash. So we will be adjusting that. What does it mean for you? Did the EUR 100 million at risk? No. is the profit and loss profile in the future is less important as a target than what it was 5 years ago. It's more the absolute value, what we deliver and what is the final exit in terms of financial, less sentimental, more financial basic under the shield of a huge, quicker, strong strategy.

Francois Dubreuil

Executives
#8

So I'm smiling because Luca has been much broader than EUR 100 million on the scope and the reason why I see forward. Let me bring some substance, first of all, on what is happening. A company turnaround doesn't happen because market depend on -- do not depend on market recovery, but the turnaround happens when a company takes back control. This is the first step, [indiscernible] to fix the fundamentals in our company. Then as a second step, we accelerate. But as Luca illustrated, there are many points in this [indiscernible] opportunities. It's not a cost-cutting exercise indeed. It's all about optimizing our resources and putting the right resources in the right place. It is discipline, is making sure we get a good return on investment on our A&P. We have a good focus. We have good working -- ways of working, clear res. We leverage every opportunity we can in go-to-market, in RGM, in A&P, as I said, in execution, which is very key. Taking control for me is very meaningful. We need to decorrelate ourselves from the negative markets, even though we're increasing gradually, step by step, but surely. It is about clear strategic focus, one being on the core brands. We need a clear focus on the core brands on the key geographies, the key markets, even the key cities in some instances. It is about RTM excellence, getting better at execution at store level and what are the expectation behind our distributors' engagement, whether it's a direct model or JV partner model or through a distributor, we need to accelerate the in-store execution, be more visible. We obviously need to work on the desirability of our brands, which is very key. We know about the stock issues in the different markets, but we need to operate in a different way. We need to have discipline with inventories. We need to have stronger execution, as I said, to deplete faster, but we also need to rebuild a fundamentally important equation about consumer pool, and that's what we are working on. So basically, [indiscernible] is sequential. As I said, we first fix and then we accelerate. We clean the base. We restore control and credibility in-house. On your second question, very key question. I won't say too much, unfortunately, because it's too early for me to say, but I can say to you, it's a more affordable version, a beautiful cognac, very enticing, calling on our heritage, on our [indiscernible] fair. Martin is an amazing house with 300 years of history. Who else can say that? We have an amazing heritage. Our heritage should be our gravity. We need to build desirability, and this is part of it. We need to create new occasions because the consumers' tastes are evolving, the ways we consume are evolving, not only in China, also in America. So this is going to be really a beautiful innovation that is going to make a difference for us, even though we need to continue to build a fundamental around the VSOP, 1738, which is a singular product in the U.S. and the rest of the portfolio. But I think I get more questions about the rest of the portfolio. Even on cognac, let me clear -- let me be clear, it's the #1 priority because this is the biggest proportion of our portfolio.

Operator

Operator
#9

Our next question comes from Richard Withagen from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Richard Withagen

Analysts
#10

I have 2 as well, please. Yes, first, on fiscal '27, on the margin bridge, you expect organic EBIT growth ahead of top line growth. Can you talk a bit about the moving parts behind that? Are you looking to improve the gross margin? Or should we expect some contribution from overheads as well? And then the second question is on the U.S. I mean, on the market share gains, you mentioned VSOP, but can you give some more details where you are gaining market share by channel? How is the higher-end segment doing? And can you also talk about the sustainability of those market share gains?

Luca Marotta

Executives
#11

I take the first. Luca speaking. We'll take the first one. So you are asking where do we stand compared to the consensus. I would like to have some guidelines the profit loss. So sales company consensus is plus 3% plus actually..

Richard Withagen

Analysts
#12

I'm not sure.

Luca Marotta

Executives
#13

Yes, there was a technical problem. So let's start with where do we stand compared to the consensus. The sales company consensus, so your opinion is that we will deliver plus 3% top line, 3% and plus 5.4% in operating profit. I will say that I need to confirm -- I want to confirm the guidance is to improve, to grow top line and bottom line. It's too early to comment to be more precise because we have just started the year and many elements remain very unknown, as I said during the conference call, top line conference call at the end of April. We have some positive, some negative, the geopolitical context, still question mark on tariffs. You have seen the news of yesterday. So a lot of combining moving pieces that makes us to be very conservative and cautious at this stage, but the guidance here. What is certain, I can tell you, however, the company consensus is currently factoring, if you consider plus 3%, plus 5.4% around 4 bps, if I'm not wrong, organic operating profit margin improvement, which does not align with what I consider a slight improvement. So I will not be more precise defining the mathematical expectation compared to the consensus. So I will stick to that. Some ins in terms of profit and loss profile, whatever it is. Clearly, we have seen that the pricing power and the need to acceleration, improving the go-to-market, also a new kind of market mix compared to the previous year with a low COGS increase, but still stability low COGS increase, the gross margin less to be a tool to improve the profitability. So where the profit comes through, come through by the overheads leverage effect because we need to grow top line faster than the previous year, clearly. and AP efficiency, meaning not reducing them in terms of support, but trying to have additional euro saving to be invested in additional program to speed up the first line, which accounts for everything, which is final sellout, final depletion and reinforcing the cycle of shipment. So a bit less of tonic of gross margin an increase between overheads and A&P as an effect of the leverage.

Franck Marilly

Executives
#14

I suppose you finish answering the question, Luca.

Luca Marotta

Executives
#15

Yes, for you.

Franck Marilly

Executives
#16

Thank you for your question. The U.S. is an amazing market. It is our #1 market. Personally, I live 3 times in my life in the U.S., so I feel very close to this market, as you can imagine. There is a lot of stake. A lot of people are concerned about the reshuffle of distribution. I actually see that as a massive opportunity. Ray is coming into place with all due respect to the amazing work that RNDC did, the super team of RNDC. There is going to be a new dynamic in the market. Needless to say, we want to reconquer this market. We want to get stronger. rebuild our fundamentals. First of all, we put the place in a new leadership in the U.S. Secondly, we're going to be targeting new distribution channels, which haven't been explored so far, like convenience stores. For that, you need to be sure you have the right formats. You may need some pricing agility from time to time, even though let me reassure you, we're staying a premium company, luxury brand with luxury brands with a strong -- maintaining and protecting the strong equity because that makes a difference even in a turmoil in a difficult marketplace. Convenience stores, on-trade is very key. Experiential, liquids to lip is very key today. We have to let the world know our consumer know we have the best products in the world, the best quality of the world. I don't hesitate in saying that. We need to let people know. We have to make more storytelling about that. We're working on it. On-trade e-comm, we are underpenetrated. We are around 15% to 16% share today. In China, for different reasons because we have a different ecosystem, as you know, we are at a 30% share. one should not prevent from having higher ambitions to get a higher proportion. It is feasible. I'm thinking also about a high net worth individual, which should work harder on the D2C, thanks to Louis the 13th, undeniably the best cognac in the world, the most amazing brand with the highest equity luxury in the world. There's much to regain on Luis Tres, which has been a little bit understated in the last 2 years. Lastly, I want insist is not just cognac, as I said, we have 3 key priorities in the U.S., one of them being, obviously, the cognac first, but then the [indiscernible] is an amazing brand, gaining share, incredible share in Texas, for instance, but more to come in getting shares and more execution on reaching more higher targets in [indiscernible]. And the bottonist. The bottonist, we feel has a super potential in the U.S. that we need to exploit. So U.S. represent -- there is a lot of stake in the U.S. As I said, the SOP 1738 and now the new cognac coming soon will make definitely a difference and backed by Luitres, where we feel we have a lot of work with the 13 where we have a lot of work to do. But there is a new mindset in the U.S. I want to stress that, new leadership, people very engaged, loss of capacities, loss of awareness of where are the challenges. We need -- in the U.S., we have 50 states, where you cannot be focusing on all the states, 5 of the states represent the 80%. That's where we need to be even stronger. focus our energies, challenge our distributors. I said I see a great opportunity with the family at Rayes, who is very committed to grow our business, to be behind the business, to increase the backup in having more people on the field and increasing the number of point of sales and better committed to better in-store visibility. hat's why I think the U.S. is a super mega opportunity for us going forward.

Operator

Operator
#17

Next question is coming from Trevor Stirling from Bernstein.

Trevor Stirling

Analysts
#18

Two questions from my side. The first one about the U.S. consumer, Funk, probably one for you, particularly around the African-American consumer. I, that has always been a huge part of cognac consumption. We have been seeing a drift away towards tequila away from cognac. Where do you think stands in that context and indeed the health of the African-American consumer? And then second question, more for Luca. As I'm thinking about cash flow in FY '27, Luca, if you hit your organic top line growth and your margin expansion, then a bit of FX had, we're looking at EBITDA flat to maybe up a little bit, ODV down, dividend cuts, tax up a little bit, interest up. But I guess, critically, the other working capital item, how should we think about that in FY '27? I think that will be critical to what the final cash flow is.

Franck Marilly

Executives
#19

So thank you, Trevor, for your great question. As you say, that community, African community you mentioned remains very strong. However, they're not buying the same levels of basically creating the same value as other pockets of consumers. We need to go in every direction, capture a greater amount of consumer base through also the digital transformation we're operating through the -- having a better CRM, targeting better. AI is going to play a big role in this in identifying and helping us to support better marketing, targeting and commercial efficiencies. So we need to grow bigger, and we need to adapt to the evolving consumer in the U.S. is very different from China, I think. The U.S. consumer is -- there has been a very strong post-COVID consumption, as you know. Premiumization has been very important. Trading up has been important. Now we're more in a crisis, even though it's a very resilient market. There's less uncertainty maybe compared to China, but there is a more selective spending. There's a bigger desire for value and experience. That's where we need to focus. This goes well beyond the communities. Of course, we can also target the Asian community. For instance, we know the highest pockets of Asian communities outside of China are in the U.S. We know exactly where they are. We need to pinpoint the potential where it is. That's why I mentioned the key cities early on. So we have to have the right format, the right pricing agility in different states. It doesn't mean having the same pricing agility everywhere. We need to maintain our value, our gross margin as much as we can. However, let me be clear, I'd rather have a bit more volume to offset our cost and rebuild capabilities to reinvest in A&P overall. So as the world is changing, we have to adapt as well. So answering to your question, African community, yes, we continue to be important, but we need to go much beyond than that, creating value and creating desirability in our brand, creating new moments. That's why we need innovation. To that extent, talking about innovation, I created an innovation lab headed by Douglas as part of our Executive Committee to generate more innovation. But more impactful. I'm always saying less is more. It takes time to create innovation, but we need to create value at the same time. We need to be very consumer-centric, much more than we have ever been. That's why we put in place many workshops between the brands, between the regions, which did not really happen before. I really want the people to be in tune on the potential and answer the needs of the consumers. So the African community is very important, but many other communities are very key. All consumers are appealing to us. We need to reengage the consumers. I think you mentioned CSR is very key as well. It's a matter of rebuilding the trust as much as we can in this world. We need to -- CSR is creating a competitive advantage. It's creating value creation and a commitment to our consumers. So I hope I answered your question, but it goes much beyond targeting one single community. It's building a strong desirability, answering the different ways of consumption, whether it is in the U.S. or in China because in China, it is fundamentally changing as well. It is a very key market as well. So we have to be very opportunistic in every way we can, but still protect our brand equity because it's a very differentiating point from all our key competitors.

Luca Marotta

Executives
#20

About cash flow for the full year '26, '27 estimation. I will do the opposite of what I do normally. I will not do the bottom up. We'll do the top down, and then I will try to explain. So this year, the conversion rate has been at 27%. It's an important indicator, always but always been there, but it will be even more important in the future. It contains a part of other working capital nonrecurring, but a bit extraordinary effect, one of them being the huge swing in in the Chinese New Year investment, previous one of the investments were done and paid this year, the delay of that and the increase of the spend makes a huge swing of the debt that was not paid at the closing. But overall, also some more lasting effect like to give you an example, a strong decrease with a positive effect of EUR 23 million in stock of other element out of ODV and H bulk. So it means that overall, all the brands, all the teams, supply chain makes a hell of a work to reduce the nonnecessary stock engagement and realization for the last year. Part of that won't be replied. So EUR 27 can be so far before the new plan being adopted and FC4ward bearing fruit being a normative element. The normative one for the next 1 or 2 years out of the transitional year '26, '27 should be more around 15%, 20%. Specifically, in a nutshell, for the full year '26, '27, I can confirm that will be positive out of nonrecurring eventual events, clearly, positive one and more in the range of between 10%, 12%, 13%. So without going through all the hypothetical, let me say, free cash flow 3, some elements to factorize that. You have understood yet top line and bottom line will be growing with a slight improvement in marginality. And then taxes, we said that EUR 29 million compared to EUR 28 million as an increase in financial expenses in terms of book, does mean being equal in terms of cash out on financial effect. And CapEx still standing around the same level, maybe lower, around EUR 30 million, so some savings. working capital variation, the aim to be around EUR 90 million, EUR 100 million if we can to improve even more compared to this year's saving. Other nonworking capital item, again, to deliver positive inflow, but a lower spend compared to this fiscal year. And on top, ForEx is negative, but less than this year. So the organic element will be having a higher -- a bigger way. So in a nutshell, '27, not possible in percent conversion rate in '26, '27, we are more between 10%, 12%, 8%, 9%, 11%, more than out of nonrecurring positive or negative potential events.

Operator

Operator
#21

I will now take the last question. Question is coming from Olivier Nicolai from GS.

Jean-Olivier Nicolai

Analysts
#22

Just in interest of time, I stick to one question on China really. If you could give us a bit more of an update on the underlying demand and what you could expect for this year? And what specific actions you're taking to unlock the VSOP potential there?

Franck Marilly

Executives
#23

Thank you very much for your question. China is equally important as much as the U.S., even though nobody asked me question about emerging and GTR, which are going to be fueling a big, big way our growth going forward. In China, we have to expand our territories, first of all, beyond Guangdong, as I said. We're resetting the organization, commercial organization to have the means to go further. We need to also grow our other brands, not just be dependent so reliant on club. We need to grow XO. e have a big workshop going on with the Chinese team, ongoing EXO, of course, and W, where we need to regain energy, even though that will be done in 2 steps. So the Chinese consumer is evolving. I mentioned the American consumer. You have to understand, you have to be consumer-centric to understand the trends to adapt to those trends when it comes to innovation, but also the way you market your products. The Chinese consumer today, there is a crisis, real estate crisis, not so much trust in the government policies today, they're saving money. However, they're ready to spend in the right places, right occasions and are definitely looking for value in the products, trading up, but also looking for experience. So we need to gear our strategy towards that. The Chinese consumer now wants more discretion, is more rational, cautious spending, less visibility, less acentation. A lot of drinking happens at home nowadays. So it's not as extravagant as it has been at one stage, if I may say this world, but there are new policies, new scrutinies from the government. The macroeconomic pressure is there. So you need to diversify the occasions to have more local relevance to be less reliant on gifting, for instance. So there are many ways to look at it. But we're geared towards -- we have a high ambition. We have a super team in China. Every time I come back from China, where I go quite often together with the U.S., I can feel the energy of the team, the determination. I don't know if this is my last question, by the way, but I want to finish on a specific touch. It's important for me to say we're a smaller company. We don't pretend to become the #1 company. That's not the case. However, we have an amazing portfolio, amazing selective portfolio with 300 years of history. We have amazing people in this company who are highly determined. Our forward is also generating new energies, new ways of looking at the business. creating accountability, responsibility at all levels, killing the silos, which we don't have time for. We have, as I said, this new energy of going forward, new ambitions, the emerging market, we are creating a new area for emerging -- new leadership for emerging markets. The GTR. This is going to create a new dynamic within the company. And because we're smaller, by definition, I just want to say we have higher possibilities, capabilities, untapped territories when it comes to untapped distribution channels, as I mentioned, convenience stores for the U.S., but it also applies to China, for instance, territories where we're not go beyond Guangdong in China, but emerging market has not really been worked like Africa, we need to go further with VSOP not only VS obviously, Middle East is a key market for us. Southeast Asia, we need to go further and Latin America, that's why Ditech, Latin America from U.S. domestic to give it the right focus because we know there is a great potential. I mentioned Brazil, but -- for instance, Mercer, as you know, may help in some ways to lower the barriers in terms of pricing variance. So we have many opportunities. The U.S. is -- the new distribution model is another one. GTR emerging, expanding distribution, conquering India is another 1 where we're very small today, but we can definitely only get bigger new channel of distribution, e-commerce is important going forward. D2C for us, which we never really explored. And last but not least, showcasing our exceptional sites, we were so happy with the company yesterday because we received the second guide for for cognac being a sexual site, which I invite you to visit. Experience is what money cannot buy. Believe me, I went through this, and it's amazing. And that's why we need to bring more traffic to let the world know about those exceptional sites that we have. I hope I summarize on all the opportunities going forward. I tend to look at the glass full of opportunities. And thank you for your commitment. Thank you for listening to what we had to say and look forward to the next meetings we have together.

Luca Marotta

Executives
#24

And Olivier, clearly a very strategic point of the situation. And to complete on the not financial, but mathematical part of your question. What are the expectations in China despite environment visit which remains low and the market is pretty tough we are very humble gaining market share. We expect to be positive in the full year 2027 in China even more in a capitalizing on the acceleration of Travel Retail -- Asian Travel Retail. And as Franck said very clearly on other Asian country, so up in sales and in depletion. -- more in volume, but less in value, but depletion and sales positive as a target in APAC and in China for the full year. The SOP is less important there than XO and Club clear, as you know. What is the current trading? So what's happening right now, 16 the 18th of June, which is very important, started very strongly. So first sign that even if the 2 months of the year, the first 2 months are not so important in terms of wage, the sign that situation is complicated. But we are fighting in a more than a decent way. And we are getting more than our previous shares. Thank you.

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