Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 15, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood morning, everyone. Thank you for waiting, and welcome to the Raízen S.A. Fourth Quarter and the 2022/'23 Crop Year Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] We advise you that the video conference is being recorded and will be available on the company's IR website, ir.raízen.com.br, where the complete material of our earnings call can be found. You can also download the presentation from the chat icon, including in Portuguese. During the company's presentation, all participants will have their microphones disabled, then we will start the question-and-answer session. We emphasize that the information contained in this presentation and any statements that may be made during the earnings call regarding business prospects, projections and operational and financial goals at Raízen S.A. constitute the beliefs and assumptions of the company's management as well as information currently available. Forward considerations are not performance guarantees. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions as they refer to future events, and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, market conditions and other operating factors may affect the future performance of Raízen S.A. and lead to results that differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Today, we have the presence of the company's executives, Ricardo Mussa, CEO; Carlos Moura, CFO; and Phillipe Casale, Head of IR. I will now give the floor to Mr. Phillipe Casale.
Phillipe Casale
executiveGood morning, everyone, and thank you for attending the Raízen results conference call for the closing of the 2022/'23 crop year. Here with me today are Ricardo Mussa, our CEO; and Carlos Moura, our CFO and IRO. I will go briefly over the highlights of the results released last Friday, and then I will invite Carlos to highlight some relevant topics related to this crop year in our business plan and in our expansion plans. Let's begin the results presentation on Slide 3. We closed the last quarter of 2022/'23 harvest, with all lines of business being expanded, despite the overall complexity and volatility in the business environment. Our net revenue was record-breaking, and we delivered a consolidated EBITDA above the projections in our guidance. Return on capital measured by ROACE made significant progress versus last crop year, while we remain firm in delivering our expansion plans with more than BRL 11 billion invested in the year. Primary cash generation measured by EBITDA minus recurring CapEx was BRL 7.9 billion. Now let's move to Slide 4 with more detailed discussion on each of the business segments, starting with Renewables and Sugar on Slide 4. After crushing has been completed last quarter, we present a picture of the closing of the crop year and compare it with last year as well as with our expectations for the year. Due to the drier climate, we had reduced sugarcane availability, productivity and sugar equivalent production. This was also the main component of stress on costs since it generated less dilution of the fixed portion, as you can see in the graph on the right. In addition, the effects of inflation also impacted the raw material and labor costs during this crop year. We managed to mitigate part of these effects of inflation by implementing various internal actions and working closely with suppliers to improve the cost efficiency balance. In terms of agricultural productivity, we are moving forward on our journey towards recovery, closing the crop year with an encouraging performance that will allow us to continue on the path of gradually reaching the average productivity of the market at this first stage. Now we can move to the next slide, #5, with the financial highlights of the Renewables and Sugar segment. The segment's combined adjusted EBITDA grew both in the quarter and in the year. We have been rapidly expanding the volumes traded for ethanol, power and sugar, taking advantage of market opportunities to maximize our share in the chain and expanding the return of our operations as a consequence. In addition, we captured better prices for ethanol and sugar, which is in line with our strategy of differentiation for those products. In Power, we reached an EBITDA of BRL 1 billion this year, a result that reflects our integrated performance in generation, commercialization and trading. As you may have noticed, we have been increasing over the disclosure of the Power segment, and we will soon announce the new brand that is going to be dedicated to explore the opportunities in this segment. Now moving on to the next slide. Let's give an update about the ethanol prices. We continue to expand the value of the ethanol value chain this year and improving the prices that we have recognized in the results. In the annual comparison, the growth was 8% year-on-year, which is equivalent to a premium of 30% compared to the average hydrous product in the local market. As shown in the last quarters, we explore the value of the ethanol chain in a unique way with an integrated positioning, selling ethanol for different markets and applications at scale and with product certification. This places us in a privileged position to capture superior returns, especially in scenarios of the present local prices. Now moving to the next slide. Let's talk about the results in Marketing & Services. Beginning with the Brazilian operation, the business environment during the fourth quarter of the crop year was marked by challenges and volatility. We reinforced our supply strategy to mitigate potential negative effects on our operations. While at the same time, we are intensifying our commercial and marketing initiatives, enhancing the value of the [Shell's] Integrated Offer. We closed the crop year in the quarter with more than 1 billion liters added in the last 12 months, maintaining the pace of renewal and branding of new stations. With the launch of the new Shell V-Power, which has proven to be the most used and recognized premium fuel in Brazil, we carried out a commercial repositioning, pursuing more value for [Raízen] and for our resellers. I should also mention the progress made in Shell Box with growing numbers of users and transactions in addition to the accelerated expansion in the number of Shell Select stores in mainly OXXO markets. Only in this last quarter of the crop year, we opened 85 new OXXO markets, and we will continue to accelerate expansions in line with our growth plan. The center of our strategy is to expand the value proposition for our resellers, increasing the economic value of the market in a sustainable way. There is a seasonal concentration of SG&A expenses during the last quarter of the crop year, which this year were more than offset by a tax gain related to the Complementary Law 192. As a result, we had an important increase in margins this year, even when we normalized this effect. Volumes sold were in line with the comparative periods, both in the quarter and in the year, but with an important improvement in [auto] cycle and aviation sales. This growth is directly related to our strategy to grow and serve our Shell network instead of serving a high-volume business, notably on the diesel side. In aviation, volumes increased, anchored by increased volumes in commercial aviation, both to Brazilian and to foreign airlines known as the visiting. Now moving to the next slide with the operations in Argentina and Paraguay. In Marketing & Services LatAm, the highlight was the complete resumption of operations at the refinery after the scheduled maintenance last quarter. We posted a strong expansion in both volumes and margins, despite all the challenges imposed by the economic scenario in Argentina, while expanding our operations and the rebranding in Paraguay. We completed another cycle of investments in the refinery to maximize the efficiency to refine products with lower sulfur content, further reducing the carbon footprint. Another important initiative in Argentina is to balance the capital structure in the country's operation due to the current capital restrictions and controls. We optimized the operation with funding from local market, running the operation at a higher leverage than usual, which, at this time, serves to increase the efficiency of Raízen's capital structure. Well, with that, I'm closing the presentation of the operational and the financial results. Now I'd like to bring Carlos on to talk a bit more about our capital structure and also the strategic advances we had in our business this year. Carlos, please.
Carlos Alberto de Moura
executiveThank you, Phillipe. Good morning, all. Initially, I would like to point out that in this crop year, we have made several improvements that demonstrate how this group has worked to create business with resilience under the scenarios. We have been working tirelessly to achieve a sustainable capital structure by closely monitoring the economic challenges in the geographies in which we operate. There was strong cash generation during the last quarter of the crop year, which has historically been the case here at Raízen. Here, we have been using the company's balance sheet to support the business increasing, pursuing to maintain prudent levels of liquidity balanced with a current capital structure that can support our expansion cycle. On operating cash flow, the main effects of working capital in the quarter are related to the following: First, inventories, which followed the typical seasonality of this harvest period, which will increase sales and normalization of inventory levels in markets and services business; second, in suppliers and accounts payables. We maintained the consolidated financial cycle in a healthy alignment, taking advantage of occasional optionality in our balance sheet; and last but not least, in account receivables, which is consistent with higher volumes commercialized and payment [indiscernible] given indirect sales to final customers of sugar and ethanol, offering higher implied profitability and low credit risk. In cash flow from investments, the main expenditures were in recovery and [indiscernible] productivity in connection with investments in building the E2G plants, expanding the Power segment in the Biogas plant located in the Costa Pinto Bioenergy Park and increasing operating efficiency in Argentinian refinery. Financing cash flow incorporates a higher level of amortization in the period, which in accordance with our guideline of extending the average debt term in our balance sheet. These effects also helped to explain the movement in net debt, as shown in the graph below. Despite the increasing debt of the period, we maintained healthy levels of leverage flat year-over-year. Moving to the next slide. I would like to connect these numbers with our capital allocation priorities. We have 3 major commandments within our group, which guides our decision-making process, ensuring financial discipline and our company's ability to be [adaptive] in any scenario. Our first priority, which is to preserve our investment grade during the current investment cycle, we are in a leverage below our projections in parallel with the continuous extension of our debt. An important source of funds which will come from the compensation of recoverable taxes in which we already made considerable improvements. This line is an important vector for coming years, as detailed in the new Note 8 of the financial statements. Second, managing and prioritizing our capital allocation, supporting business strategies. We are strictly following these priorities, as shown in the slide, and continuously access the returns of each of these groups of investments. And the third priority translates into exercising our optionality by continuously evaluating our portfolio and partnerships, notably in Biogas, Power and other new business, seeking to maximize the value of the portfolio that we are currently managing. This may also represent divestments for supporting our growth plan, always consistent with the first two points already presented. Next slide, please. On all the items that we listed amongst the 6 main pillars, I would like to highlight the Topic 5 related to the operational optimization, especially in Renewables and Sugar, resulting from the lower crushing volumes that we entailed lower our [indiscernible] efficiency and concentration of costs. However, we have improved in all items in which we highlight the expansion of business, generation of more margins, integration of acquiring businesses and the growth of Power business. I would like to point out the progress of the initiatives of our strategic plan according to the next slide, starting with the E2G. We have proven the operational capacity, and we have made great improvements in our journey of market expansion. The credibility assured by the company with our partners and with customers reflects the intellectual property over the technology and our execution capacity. We broke the production record at the plant proving that this technology is ready and can be fully scaled. Currently, we have 5 new plants being built, meeting a global demand that does not stop growing. Our contract portfolio already has 4.3 billion liters to be sold over the next few years, sustaining a consistent projection of the E2G program. In Power business, we are capturing market opportunities, intensifying partnerships and enlarging our scale. Our performance in generation, trading and solutions for energy sector is based in one single pillar, the customer-centric approach. In Sugar, we accelerated our strategy, advancing in direct sales to the destination with almost 100% of our production already being sold with any intermediaries, also advancing in the portion sold to and originated from third parties. Another important achievement was the creation of the world's first 100% traceable sugar chain with no-GMO, ensuring additional demand from our products with superior returns, all of that in a constructive pricing cycle. Next slide, please. We know the opportunities and challenges that we have ahead. However, we are confident and ready to navigate in this environment and deliver solid results considering the following assumptions. We anticipate crushing that will be 9% higher than this year, reaching 80 million tons due to the appropriate weather and improvement in our agricultural productivity. The increase in crushing will dilute fixed costs with higher volumes of commercialization in an environment of superior prices than we had in the last harvest, mainly in Sugar, where we have already a good portion of sugar hedged and fixed in our portfolio. We are substantially accelerating our Power platform with an increasingly significant contribution to the results after increases capacity and volumes sold, mainly in the free market environment [illuminated] in Brazil as ACL. In Marketing & Services, we have increases in sales volumes in our Shell network besides the opportunities to optimize and capture gains within our integrated supply and sales platform. Our focus in maximizing profitability in our operations in Brazil, even considering the risks of a still volatile business environment. Regarding investments, this will be the year with the highest CapEx in our cycle of expansion. Our priorities will be the following: CapEx linked to the agricultural use in the recovery journey; projects to expand renewables in our Bioenergy Parks, mainly with the construction of the 5 E2G plants and 1 Biogas plant already under construction; distributed power generation projects, focus on increasing the generation of renewable electricity to meet the growth of our customer base; and finally, expanded tools in marketing service to expand our network, grow and optimize our logistics infrastructure and complete investments to be made to adjust the quality of products and reduce sulfur emissions in our Argentinian refinery. Two important points to highlight. The matrix management of expenses, expanding our perimeter and scope of action. Our ambition is to achieve a reference model capable of making us even more resilient in any scenario that we may face ahead. The patient, rigor and prudence in the cash flow, given the scenario of higher interest rates and less availability of credit in the market, which imposes us our vision of recycle the asset portfolio, monetizing tax credits and develop solutions for the capital structure that we already mapped with the objective to sustain the investment plan and maintain the leverage and liquidity principles that I have mentioned. I would like to reiterate our motivation and confidence to deliver the results expected for this crop year. Next slide, please. On the opportunity side, the highlights is the [indiscernible] production, benefiting our Sugar business in marketing services to persevere the integrated value offering and hence, even more the lubricants business, expand the Power business, attracting more customers and optimizing our portfolio management, monetize tax credits and continuously review the assets of the company. In the challenges side, we are attentive to the unfolding of potential [new], which can affect our crushing volumes due to the rainfall regime at the end of this harvest. In this sense, we are accelerating our production, looking closely into the volatility and externalities in the oil products markets where we reiterate our fight against illegality and tax evasion as well our attention to the diverse sources of supply. Macroeconomic and political scenario in which the adaptation of the Brazilian government in its first year as well the election in Argentina will impose a lot of attention from us. Higher interest rates, which demands diversification and creativity in the source of capital, especially in the cycle of investments and business expansion. Tax reform and recent court decisions, which make the business environment less predictable and naturally demand our attention and concentration in this matter. Very important. Please note that we have made a few more slides available in the appendix related to the Raizen's sustainability journey as well all the updates about the E2G program. Thank you for your attention, and now we can move to the Q&A session.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Let's now go to our first question. It comes from Gabriel Barra with Citibank.
Gabriel Coelho Barra
analystI have two from my side. The first one, in terms of cash flow generation, working capital and leverage, as you mentioned, you saw a significant release of working capital at the end of this year, as already expected. But the amount in market is sort of surprising here, something close to BRL 4 billion. Could you talk a little bit about this dynamic? Additionally, could you provide more details about the cash flow generation for this year for next -- for this crop season and the company's net debt target for the end of this crop year? It could help us here to understand this dynamic that's important, taking account the huge investment that you have for this year. The second point about the tax credit, right? I think one point here I want to understand is about the monetization of those tax credits and the time line here. Additionally, the company has a very large line of credits in the balance sheet. If I'm not mistaken, you mentioned something about 10 years to monetize all of these credits. But my question is this full amount or just the BRL 3.3 billion? And additionally, there is any kind of risk here that you need to monitor in the following quarters? Or do you think that this is conservative in terms of monetizing this credit, and there is no risk here with the Brazilian [indiscernible] or something like that? So those two points will help us to understand a little bit here the quarter.
Carlos Alberto de Moura
executiveGood morning, Barra. It's our pleasure to talk with you. I will start on your first question about cash flow generation, then I will pass to Mussa to talk about the tax credits and the other points. Regarding to the cash flow generation for this year crop, we had a very positive momentum due to the management of working capital. If you remember, 2 quarters before, we said about to put our balance sheet at the service of the strategy related to sugar, related to ethanol, putting the accounting receivables with more intensity. We have optimized our supply chain in fuels, adjusting our inventory levels for the end of the year in all of our business lines. And that's the reason why we had a very strong cash generation and gaining more extension in our debt maturity. Regarding the vision for 2023-'24, we expect to maintain our net debt stable, which means something like BRL 20 million, BRL 21 billion in net debt. We have around the same 1.3x adjusted EBITDA. Why? First, with the primary cash generation, even considering the increase of the CapEx for this year to sustain our expansion, but continues to manage the working capital taking more advantage of the positions that we already taken, monetizing tax credits with more and more intensity. Just for reference, in this year, we compensated and monetized something about BRL 3.7 [billion], even with a higher level of tax in Argentina and some tax credit -- tax payments in Brazil that we won't have this effect again for this year. The expectation of the company is to compensate and monetize 100% of the tax charge of the company and recycling our portfolio, which means to take advantage of some assets to -- for example, E2G contracts that we can have opportunity to monetize them, developing advances and other solutions in order to match our demand for capital in the E2G plants. That is the major part of our expansion program. Mussa?
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveNo. Thank you, Barra. Just to conclude, I think Carlos already talked a little bit about our tax monetization. If you look into this year, the quality of this tax price is really phenomenal compared to what we have in our balance sheet. So it's something that we -- in our recovery took into 5 years is something that we can do it even faster than that. So in the end of the day, it's -- when you look into how we achieve those numbers, especially compared to other types of credits, this is pretty much a very good one. We can even ask for that in cash if we wanted to, but we understood that we could compensate with other taxes that we have inside the company and it will be faster to do that. It was a long debate internally how we would monetize that faster? And that's why we are so confident and we put that in our business plan moving ahead.
Phillipe Casale
executiveAnd Barra, this is Phillipe here. Just one complement here about this -- the tax credit and how we're going to be able to show you guys this. We have a new financial -- a new note on the financial statement, which is Note 8, which is well disclosed each line and each type of credit and how we are going to use this going forward. So just a reference for you guys to follow up every quarter about this usage of the tax.
Operator
operatorWell, now moving on to our next question. It comes from Luiz Carvalho with UBS.
Luiz Carvalho
analystI have basically two here as well. The first, if you may, I don't know, help us to try to reconciliate the [indiscernible] to the cash flow. You provided a guidance between 13.5 and 14.5 of EBITDA and a CapEx of 13, 14. So trying to understand how the dividend policy would play, given that you already paid a certain amount this year? So that's the first one. The second one, it's about the breakdown of the guidance, right? I mean what is implied in terms of margin on the fuel distribution side? I mean now that -- I mean, when we look in terms of the [indiscernible] potential guidance to reach that, we would get something between 110, 120. But I mean, the recent margins has been lower than that. So just trying to get a sense here in terms of what do you think about the margins looking forward? And if I may, a third one. If you would like to proceed to distribute more dividends, I mean, what's the reason behind that? I mean given the stock is pretty much down compared to the IPO level, why a buyback wouldn't make much more sense here?
Carlos Alberto de Moura
executiveSo Luiz, thank you for your question. Firstly, I would like to highlight your last point that we put a slide in our presentation to reinforce our discipline and covariance in the balance sheet management and maintain a prudential level of leverage, and I will go deeper in this point. Extending the maturity and intensifying the level of tax credits monetization, maintaining the pace of capital expenditures in our main projects and if necessary, we will exercise our options, including buybacks or dividends and recycling our portfolio. But the first commandment, which means that the preservation of our investment grade, even in this investment cycle, is the principle. And that is the discipline that we are running the company and the reason why for maintaining the expectations for this year '23-'24, to reach a net debt to EBITDA of 1.3x. Why? Given the better performance of working capital, we have done a very positive quarter. But if you remember, the other quarters were very intense in working capital consumption. Second, reduce the level of the payment of taxes, as I mentioned to Barra previously, and considering a lower level of interest payments some people in the market is considering the competence regime as the driver of the interest payments. That is not the case due to the extension of the debt, we have a lower pressure in this line. Another important point is the portfolio recycling. And again, we will work to develop partnerships or get some advances in our E2G contracts with more intensity in order to sustain our expansion. Once again, it's important to match the demand of capital of E2G with alternative sources of capital to maintain our balance sheet safe and in a prudential way.
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveTo your point here on the guidance part, Luiz, of course, we are seeing the improvement in operational margin. So I disagree with you that we're seeing lower margins. I know that has been difficult for the market to understand how where is the margin for the fuel segment. if you look and if you compare apples to apples of '21-'22 compared to '22-'23, of course, these one-offs of having lower inventory hits and reduction on prices, huge effects on the tax cuts last year. If you take that off, you can see that the operational margins for the entire sector, not only Raízen, has been improving. And if you look into next year, just for us to achieve our numbers, we need to reach BRL 120 but that's pretty much feasible. Of course, and my ambition is much higher than that, but it's moving ahead, and we are seeing the improvement of the operational margins. A very good example for me is when you look into the PL 192, that's an example of how high the margins of the sector can be. So when you had that opportunity and it would not pass-through prices and you saw the value creation of -- for the company when that happens. So that tells me that the margin target on the medium term can be much, much higher that's why we're still very optimistic on delivering the next year results. Not as challenging, I believe, as it was this particular year.
Operator
operatorNow we're moving on to Thiago Duarte with BTG Pactual.
Thiago Duarte
analystYes, I'd like to focus on the guidance and a little bit of the assumptions that drove the -- both the EBITDA and the CapEx guidance that you're providing. I think Mussa just made reference to BRL 120 per cubic meter in the Marketing & Services business in Brazil, I think that's a good color. And with regards to the Renewables and Sugar, a couple of things that I would love to hear more color on. Number one, what's the price of sugar and ethanol or at least a range for pricing that you -- that the company is assuming in order to get to the guidance? And number two, with regards to cost, right, with 9% increase in crushing and the expected cost dilution, what kind of unitary cost you guys expect to be able to achieve in this new crop? And with regards to the CapEx, can you also quantify in terms of the growth in terms of the expansion CapEx, how much of that is expected to grow exclusively into the E2G plants that are being built that will be helpful as well?
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveThank you, Thiago, for the question. Let me give you a highlight overview, and if Carlos get all the detail on the numbers. But just to give you some highlights of the guidance. So we are improving our productivity for next year. So -- and the numbers so far are really good. So the first initial signs coming from the crop are really, really good. The challenge for me this year is much less the ton per acre -- per hectare and much more being able to harvest everything because of potential [El Niño]. So it's a different challenge, Thiago. If you look what we achieved on the first, second or the third cut, more than 2/3 of our entire base already fixed. So we are having a very high confidence level on the volume side. If you take the -- so we are getting almost 10% more, maybe a little bit more than that on the volume side. If you take price wise, you see that Sugar already hedged around 20% higher than last year. That's 85% of our total production. If you look into the spare, the 15%, it can be even higher than other market today is trading above 120, 125. So we can have even higher numbers on the Sugar side. Ethanol price was pretty much the same at the average that we had last year, but also an increase in volume. Cost-wise here, Thiago, I don't have the number, maybe Carlos can give you on the unitary cost. He can share you later. We are seeing, of course, dilution of costs and less inflationary pressure than we saw last year. So that's also used to -- we see more volume, better prices and lower cost. And so we -- for me, the higher risk that I have right now is being able to harvest the crop, really that would be the highest risk because we have more spare capacity than the average. We, on average, should be better than the market because we have more spare capacity to harvest the entire crop that we have ahead of us. So that is, for me, the main point for the confidence that we have on the guidance on this year, Thiago.
Carlos Alberto de Moura
executiveThiago, related to the cost, just to going into the detail, we put in our release now our new vision of costs related to the cost of agriculture production. That is the almost the cash cost that is forming the inventories level, which will have, as Mussa said, strong dilution due to the volumes. But we are already seeing the relief in the diesel prices, fertilizers and labor. And this will be positive for our costs. We expect to stabilize the level of costs in nominal terms with dilution in Sugar equivalent cash costs. For your question regarding the E2G forecasted investment for this year, a disbursement in about BRL 3.5 billion in E2G.
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveAnd the rest is coming, of course, we have Biogas that we are concluding [indiscernible] also Power. We have a lot of distribution generation that we have already sold and everything. So these -- those 3, all the growth investments, Thiago, we have very low risk on the commercial side. It's really implementation. That's why when we saw our plant of Costa Pinto plant performing so well, we are getting more and more confident on the level that we're going to achieve in E2G. The Bonfim plant is pretty much almost done here. So we are on the final, final stage to start the plant. We have 5 plants under construction right now. You can see on these slides what we have right now on the screen on Bonfim, [indiscernible], [indiscernible] and [Gaza], all under construction at the same time. And it's important, of course, to recover the productivity to be able to supply all the biomass into those plants. So that's why we are getting much more confident this year with that -- with the development expenses. We also see some relief on the CapEx side of steel and everything that is related to E2G plants. And of course, getting more confident once those plants are reaching -- finalizing the construction and now really excited about the starting of Bonfim plant, and that would be another milestone. I think the milestone of reaching the productivity that we reach on Costa Pinto was phenomenal. So we beat the record of production. Now we need to prove that the plant that we built is operational, and that will be another milestone by August, September this year. We'll be back here talking about it.
Operator
operatorLet's now move on to the question by Isabella Simonato with Bank of America.
Isabella Simonato
analystI have two questions. First of all, still on the sugar and ethanol scenario, right? I wonder if you could give us a little bit more clarity if you're being able to hedge the next crop season at current price level in the next couple of weeks or months? - and what's your view on the sugar prices for the next 12 months? If you could also address a little bit the dynamics for ethanol, right, considering that fuel consumption probably won't move much this year? You do have a decent supply. So what's your view, especially on the [parity] with gasoline? And my second question, Mussa, you mentioned investments on biogas, right? I wonder what's your view on that and if you continue to pursue the plants as initially thought?
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveNo. Great. Thank you. Great questions, Isabella. First on the hedge of sugar. So I just explained that we already hedged the '23-'24 season almost 85%. And if you look in '24-'25, we've hedged around 30%. But we are still -- if you look into prices right now, even higher, much better, we are constructed -- as I always said, since the IPO -- has always been, I think sugar should find structurally a new level to stabilize and attract new production. We haven't seen any new production of sugar for the past, I would say, 9 years or 10 years, and demand keeps growing. So of course, right now, it's exacerbated for the problems that was in the Indian crop. Even in Brazil, it was below, but everyone expected last year. So we had a deficit on the global sugar market for the past 3 years. So -- but having said that, Isabella, I'm still constructive on sugar. I don't know if those prices 26-27, we will sustain. But for me, structurally, sugar should be above 20 cents, 21 cents to be able to attract new production. And that's what we see prices moving forward. And that's why even though we are constructive on prices, we are not taking much risk. Our company needs cash. That's why we took the risk approach of fixing hedging prices. And we're moving on '24-'25, getting advantage of those very good prices and very good returns. So for me, '24-'25, we will have even more production. So we are fixing also the -- now the third plant is really phenomenal [indiscernible] is coming. So we expect '25-'26 to have 100% of our sugarcane in full potential to have much more volume. And if we can guarantee those prices that we are seeing today, then we are going to have very good cash flow coming from that. More than that, Isabella, that's when '24-'25 and '25-'26 that when the cash flow from E2G will come. So the company will move into a different animal -- a different shape of cash flow generation, much less volatility on the cash flow. That's why we are very, very, I would say, cautious of [manning] the risk for this season and the next crop season to be able to have. That's the peak of CapEx that we have. We end all the CapEx in Argentina this year. Then the E2G will finance itself. It's going to be a strong cash flow generation coming from E2G, '25-'26 onwards. So for me, we are not taking much risk and okay, that's way to get even better price of sugar. If we had very good results, we are hedging and fixing that. On the ethanol side, what we see prices, of course, will depend on gasoline prices. What we see is very stable prices compared to last year. We are seeing our premium. And again, Isabella, remember that we're exporting a lot and we are getting better and better on the export side in [indiscernible] segments. So the premiums that we are getting on the ethanol side should compensate for any price reduction that might see on [hybrid] But this year, we have the return on [PIS/COFINS] tax starting in June. We have seen a discussion to increase from 27% to 30% on the ethanol side. So -- but we're not seeing any upside. We are putting pretty much the same prices that we had on the previous year. On the biogas side, we, of course, biogas is a great molecule. We are concluding the 2 plants that we already sold into very good prices, Scania to Volkswagen and all that. The discussion right now is the same, Isabella, is what's the best use of the biogas. We have new products coming in. We are talking about even biomethanol and other stuff. So we are more cautious on just setting up new contracts because we are seeing other potential uses of the biogas even internally. That's what we are taking some time to not speed up the construction of new plants because the horizon show very good potential other products or other uses for the biogas, but it's still very constructive at the same way we were before, Isabella, for the good reason, right, to have more alternatives than we had before. On the Raízen Day, we're going to share more about these new products and everything that we are developing starting from biogas, from fertilizer, from [green] ammonia and other stuff that we're going to talk more on the Raízen Day.
Operator
operatorNow we'll move on to Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley.
Bruno Montanari
analystOne follow-up on the guidance first. When we look at the E2G investments, right, are you actually accelerating versus the prior budget for plan? Or is it just sticking to the original schedule? So looking to see if we can have some positive surprise in terms of how fast you can bring the new plants online? Second question on ethanol export prices. It seems that your premium has contracted a bit in the past quarter for [steel] -- at a very healthy level. So should we expect the current level of premium to be the normal one? Or can you return to probably a higher spread in the export market? And then finally, if you could comment on Raízen's position regarding Russian diesel imports, whether you would be willing to do that if it's getting in the way of your fuel distribution margins, that would be helpful?
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveThank you, Bruno. So the three questions. First on E2G, we are pretty much on what we had on E2G plant. Of course, we have a lot in our hands right now, 5 plants at the same time, it's a lot. Once we have the Bonfim plant operational, then we'll discuss if we're going to accelerate or not. But right now, we are keeping pretty much the same pace that we have designed a few years ago. On the premium and exports side, it's difficult to look -- you have to look into the full year, not only on a quarter basis because, quarterly, you have a lot of different things happening from different clients and inventory. So it's difficult to look -- you should expect similar premiums. We haven't changed anything on that sense. I think this year will be different from last one. We are seeing more difficult if El Niño happens. But as we are seeing here, we see more difficult to produce ethanol by the end of the crop season. That might change a little bit the scenario that we had this year. We had no cash and carry this year. There might be opportunities on that, Bruno. So we're still looking, but it's very early to say. But clearly, this year will be different from last year. So things -- we didn't have any opportunity last year to do cash and carry. That might happen this year, we don't know. But on the premium side, the agenda hasn't changed. We are moving our ethanol into the premium markets in Europe, Japan and U.S. if we keep the same thing happening this year. recently [indiscernible] imports, of course, we are very -- we always looking to all things that are moving right now. Petrobras is clearly showing some changes on their price mechanism in Brazil. Of course, we look into all the opportunities to import from different sources. What we always guaranteed to our dealers, the best price, the best supply. We are very good on that. We have a very good trading team, and we are right now looking to all the opportunities. I will not share our strategy here. What I can tell you is that we are going to be competitive. We are going to comply with all the rules in the market. If there is opportunity to do that, we will do that in a very, I would say, disciplined way. But to also have to keep in mind to check what Petrobras will do. And I don't think it will take too long for them to share what their new strategy is. So with all that in our hands, then we're going to make a decision, Bruno. So I think what I can share with you, we have a great trading desk, great logistics, great support from the shareholders, and we are able to get from very different sources. And right now, we are looking to other opportunities to decide what we're going to do. I know it's a very evasive answer here, Bruno. I know that, that's as much as I can share with you on the strategic side.
Operator
operatorNow on to our next question. It comes from Lucas Ferreira with JPMorgan.
Lucas Ferreira
analystI have a couple of follow-ups. The first one on the credit monetizations. And I just wanted to understand maybe from Carlos. Carlos, if you see any chance of any risk of these credits don't get monetized or maybe not in the time that you foresee? So my question is what are the risks of these falling behind your schedule? And the other question, on the same lines, how much more credits you should be generating not only consuming the credits already you have but how much more credit you should be generating through the year? And then the other question, a follow-up to Mussa. Mussa, I know you touched on this a few times. But looking at this year on the Marketing Services, marketing in Brazil and Argentina, given the uncertainties regarding you just mentioned Petrobras and the volatility on oil prices, on currency, in the policy, et cetera. So how confident you guys are that this year will be less volatile than last year? In other words, that you're going to get closer to that normalized margin? So when I look at the outlook and considering Argentina's election, I have a hard time understanding how this year could be less volatile than last year. So that's basically my question and I appreciate any comments around that.
Carlos Alberto de Moura
executiveSo Lucas, good to talk with you. First, regarding credit monetization, the risk of noncompensation or refund of those credits is very low, especially when you talk about the state credits with the new regime of monophasic, this will be very positive in terms of the turnover of this kind of assets. In terms of the federal credits, as we have a strong generation for this year, of the taxes in Brazil due to the better performance of our results, we expect to use the DTA to compensate 30% of the load of taxation over profits. And the other 70% remaining will be compensated with this [indiscernible] fees that we are using. We have a study of monetization or realization of those credits that is subject to verification from our auditors. Naturally, we have some conservatives in this approach, but we are working hard and developing solutions for accelerate this monetization. It's also important to remind the effect in Argentina, that's due to the imports of oil derivates over there. We had a tax retention that we will compensate and this will also create a relief in our tax bunch. And this is very positive for us going forward. And we are creating a value reserve that took advantage of the integration of our view in terms of margin. And this integrated and interdependent view in the margin that provides us the formation of these assets. Again, this position from the market to not consider as in a recurring basis, the tax credit, in our opinion, is not correct due to the fact that we have this integrated approach. And naturally, we explore all the optionalities in our footprint. And that was an example due to the distortions in the markets during the last year. We took the decision to recognize those credits in accordance with our governance and again, build this value reserve of cash to fund our initiatives going forward. And I will pass to Mussa to talk about [indiscernible]
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveJust to conclude here on Carlos side, we had a huge assets on the tax side. So we should expect our company to be more -- if you look into the history of our company on how much EBITDA and cash, we have created a huge assets, and these assets can be monetized. So we should expect more and more cash coming from that. And so our ratio between EBITDA and cash will change because we have a huge asset here. What I mean huge is we can have more details on the note that Phillipe told you guys. So hopefully, over time, you can understand the value that has been created and how we are going to do that we [indiscernible]. Relating to your question on fuels business, the volatility, I think it's different. I agree with you, Argentina has a high risk of having high volatility because of elections and what's happening in Argentina right now. It's a self-contained. Our debt in Argentina is containing pesos. So any big devaluation there, there is also a positive impact in our debt here, we have a lot of in Argentina. So this -- I agree with you. I think Argentina, this year, in my view, is a higher risk because of the scenario -- political scenario. Paraguay and Brazil is completely different. Paraguay elections has already done. And I don't see would be very high prices of fuels this year compared to what we had last year that made all the governments to reflect that on different policies. So -- and Brazil was even more because of the elections, right? So this will not happen in Brazil this year. There is no elections. We are not seeing the volatility that we had last year with the Ukrainian-Russian war. We are even seeing the slowdown in prices. So I think the prices we were just lower that we benefit the government not to make any funny or make very different things in the market this year [indiscernible]. So I see the less volatility into the Brazilian than Paraguayan market and more volatility on the Argentinian market, Lucas. -- but that's -- again, it's Brazil, it's the we don't know what's going to happening in Europe with the war. But right now, our scenario is much more stable, and we would be able to see better how [indiscernible] the operational margin of the business without that much impact. But I just told that and last week, we have a price decrease. And we're going to see our inventory losses on -- but compared to last year, I don't see anything in the same. We had -- just on the price cuts for PIS/COFINS and ICMS, we have more than BRL 1,300 per cubic meter in a market that has BRL 140 margin. So it's 10x the margin just on price change -- price fluctuation on taxes. So this has never been seen before. And that's why I understand it was difficult for the market to understand where the margins. That's why we are optimistic. We are seeing operational margin improving in our numbers [indiscernible] compared '21-'22 compared to '22-'23 margins were up. And not only ours but the entire market, and we are seeing the same for next year.
Operator
operatorNow on to our last question. Last but not least, this question will come from Regis Cardoso with Credit Suisse.
Regis Cardoso
analystQuick couple of follow-ups. If you can comment on the guidance. I mean, looking at -- you had the prices that you've hedged some 20% above, thinking about the increased productivity, which we expect some 10% or so. I would maybe expect more of an increase year-on-year than BRL 0.5 billion we have seen from last year's guidance through this year. So my question is whether you think the guidance -- you've taken a more conservative approach to it? Or if you -- if there's anything else I'm not considering in that reasoning? That would be on the guidance. And maybe something related, if you could also discuss the difference between [indiscernible] prices in Brazil, in the New York #11 prices in the U.S., if there are the constraints in the exports of sugar, what -- how has that impacted you? And then just maybe lastly, a follow-up on the topic of margins. If you can comment on where you see your recurring margins for the year? If you've seen margins improving sequentially in the last particularly now in the second quarter, if you can comment how has been the competitive environment in April and so far in May, particularly given -- we're particularly concerned given the increasing share of the Russian imports in the domestic market?
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveThank you, Regis. I think the guidance, no, we are very, let's say, hold to the ground on the guidance for this year. We do have risks in Argentina that we embedded here. Of course, we have risks on El Niño that I said before. But as we move forward [hedges], we are more and more confident on the -- especially on the productivity side. I think that, for me, has been our really weak spot. And this year is the year for us to show that we are really, really recovering on the productivity, and we have more than 65%, 66% already done in our job. Power, as I mentioned, it's something that last year was really good. We are going to give you guys more about that, and we are focusing on our own power, on electricity in our business right now. We are creating a lot of value with customers. That was a very positive surprise and might be something to surprise by the end of the year. When you talk about -- I think I understood your question, Regis, on New York #11 is [indiscernible] side, very different clients. We have very, I would say, good client base with different formats. We have -- in some clients have fixed prices. Some clients, we have prices related to [indiscernible] all over the place, I think here hedges. I strongly believe we have the best trading desk for ethanol globally. And we are doing a great job on the supply side. I'll give examples. We have ships that can combine going -- coming with diesel moving backwards with sugar something that was unbelievable in the past. So diesel, I'm very confident on the premiums that we are gaining on ethanol moving ahead. On the margins of fuels, there is no constraint right now to import. So of course, we are looking the Russian diesel very closely. As I told before, we also have to look into what Petrobras is going to do on the pricing policy. We are one of the largest [ethanol], if not the largest client of Petrobras in Brazil, we're very close to them on the discussion. So we are waiting also to check what their behavior to that for us to take a very strong position. What I can share is that we are doing everything we can here to be [competed] and we will. So there is no constraint on my side to do anything. And we are obviously depending on Petrobras' position, we're going to position ourselves very, very [indiscernible]. On the margins, as I said, I think the 120 to 140 we see improvement from last year and the same thing from '21-'22 to '22-'23. And right now, '23-'24 is still, from my view, it's very, very low margins, even 120 to 140 and potential upside moving ahead. So I see the trends. We follow. Of course, we have much more information than you guys on what market is happening. But we had the highest investment last year on marketing. The highest investment on the Shell V-Power and Shell Box that we ever did. So the integrated value offer that we have right now is unbeatable. That's why we're so confident also on the increase on the margin. So I think the market is improving, and we are investing a lot. If we look into our numbers, how much money we are putting on marketing, on Shell Box, on V Power and [indiscernible]. So that's why we had a record market share in our branded dealers, record volumes on the branded dealers and record conversions into branded sites. So that to me is the best you can get on that. The market is the market, we are going to adjust, we're good, we are fast and we are going to digital market, but this trend continues on the right direction.
Regis Cardoso
analystAs if I may, just a follow up, the question on pricing -- sorry, on export restrictions and difference between domestic price in Brazil and internationally in New York is on the sugar. We've seen some discussion about logistics constraints on Brazil exporting sugar and therefore, that historical spread or premium between domestic markets in Brazil, and markets abroad has collapsed, meaning maybe the 25-plus cent dollar per pound would not be available to producers in Brazil, if you could comment on that?
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveYes. Good point. I think, Regis, on the logistics constraints, we saw a very good crop for soybean and for the grains. So we expect to have logistics constraints in Brazil to export. We -- of course, we see that as an advantage for Raízen, very good contracts. We know how to handle that. But you're right. That's why you saw prices spiking much more on the short term and on the long run. But we -- I wish you hedges on the -- we are more concerned about reducing the volatility and guaranteeing the cash flow generation of the company for the next 2 crop seasons. Very important to us. Prices right now are phenomenal, great returns. So as I said, I don't think we should be aiming here to get 25, 26. Of course, if we can, we will, as much as we can, we still have 15% to hedge and we are going to hedge a bit better prices than what we have already had. But I don't regret if you look into next crop season. We are moving forward with even better prices than this year, and we're going to have even better production for next year. So again, we have very risk. The mindset of risk approaches the right mindset. But I see the market is struggling. I don't see any big production coming from India right now. Even in Europe, they have reduced the big area, looking to Thailand with a limitation on that. I don't see any reason for Brazil to put any cap on anything, no issue at all on the cap to export or price export cap for that Brazil is benefiting from those good prices right now and we're benefiting more next crop season. I think the question right now is much more how long should the price be to be able to attract new production because the market needs additional production and the price should be sustained at a higher level for a longer period of time for any company to make investments, including ours. So that's why we're still constructive on price asset. And I've been telling that for a long, long, long year. If you look into the stock use ratio right now of sugar is still very low. But as I said, even during the IPO, we're very constructive on sugar prices, and the market is going where we think it should be. But it don't need to be 26, 25 to be very, very profitable hedges even at everything above $0.20, $0.21, already great returns to us. That's why we are -- we keep hedging and we'll keep doing that for next crops and the next one, the next one and keep collecting very good returns.
Operator
operatorNow I'd like to turn the floor over to Phillipe Casale for one last question. Please, Mr. Casale, you have the floor.
Phillipe Casale
executiveFirst, just to clarify here, we're getting some questions directly here. The number moves I mentioned about the margins of 120 to 140 is related to the Brazilian operation. We have been running at a higher level, historically speaking, and that's already also embedded in the guidance a higher level of margins for the LatAm operation. The one question we got here on the chat is regarding the expansion of the OXXO market network. What is the intention of the company for the long run? And if it's -- if we are looking into selling part of the operation, that's a point in time in the future. The question is from Francisco Cantão.
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveSorry, just -- sorry I was looking to other things. I think the expansion remains the same. We are very glad with the results that we had so far with OXXO. The partnership has been great with our guys from Mexico. We did our expansion in São Paulo. We started in Campinas region. Expansion was also really good. Remember that we operate 100% of the stores. And we keep the same base of growth that we have in the past. Of course, we are looking into the various geographies that make sense to us where we can. But one thing that I think the market hasn't seen yet is the benefit for Shell Select because once we start having the scale of OXXO helping on the Shell Select to negotiate better prices. And we are seeing now our dealers benefit, especially in the regions where OXXO is in benefiting from that. That's why we had a record year also of putting Shell Select in place. And our dealers will be very, very happy this year with the results that we're going to get from them, especially on getting lower cost by managing the operation ourselves. So I think what we expect on OXXO so it's still growing. You haven't seen big numbers in our results yet because the growth still investing a lot So -- but it's self-finance company, is not reflecting upon us here on Raízen. But they're doing a great job so far.
Operator
operatorWell, thank you. The Q&A session is now closed. We would like to tell you that all answer -- all questions that have not been answered will be replied to by the IR team of Raízen S.A. We would now like to turn the floor over to the company's closing remarks. Please, Mr. Mussa, you have the floor.
Ricardo Aquila Mussa
executiveThank you, everyone, for the questions. It was a great year. I know a very volatile year that we had last year, but just want to congratulate the entire Raízen for that. We were able to create a lot of value and take advantage. And again, even the tax credit, I know that the analysts are looking into that some skepticism. But for me, it is unbelievable how -- where we manage not to pass-through prices and create that value of the company that will be monetized in a short period of time. So that's creation. Nobody is taking that from us. We need to help financing the company. We saw the progress on the productivity side. For me, that's -- if you ask my #1 priority is productivity. We should deliver on that. And that for me, the commitment to the market is that we are going to be in much better shape this year. We are doing the right thing. You can look into our numbers first, second, now the third cut, more than 64%, 65% of the entire crop is already fixed and moving very fast to conclude everything. We still see great momentum for E2G, sustainable [indiscernible] demand, still spiking, more demand that we can couple with, and we are concluding the second plant, and we are very excited to launch that in August, September. Hope you guys can join us during the launch. And then we're going to talk more about how to speed the E2G expansion once we get even more confident after this launch. The market -- there is a lot of tailwind helping us right now to move on the right direction. And on my -- so first priority, productivity; second priority, deliver E2G; and the third one is the profitability of the fuels business, Brazil, Argentinian and Paraguay. And as I told you, we increased our marketing expenses. We are investing more and more into the Shell Box and into the viewers in the branded sites. So we expect having more profitability coming this year and maybe even better business on the cash conversion side compared to the previous year. So excited about this new crop season, and we are going to deliver as we always did in the past. Thank you, [guys]. Just to -- just a recap here, Raízen Day will be webcasted live on May 24 for those who cannot join us, but please, it's going to be a good chance to exchange. I'm going to there, my entire team is going to be there to talk more about details of what we are doing and share views and discuss the future of the company.
Carlos Alberto de Moura
executiveThank you very much.
Operator
operatorOkay. Thank you, sir. The video conference of results referring to the fourth quarter and the 2022/'23 crop year from Raízen S.A. is now officially closed. The Investor Relations department is available to answer other questions and concerns. Thank you so much to all participants, and have a good afternoon, everyone. Thank you.
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