Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for waiting. Welcome to the Raízen First Quarter of the 2024, '25 Crop Year Earnings Presentation. This presentation is being recorded, and the replay will be available at the company's IR website, ir.raízen.com.br and at Raízen official YouTube channel. To choose the language of your preference, simply click on the interpretation button through the globe icon at the lower part of the screen and select either English or Portuguese. Afterwards, you may choose to mute the original audio. On the interpretation button through the globe icon at the lower part of the screen and select either English or Portuguese. [Operator Instructions] Before proceeding, we would like to clarify that any statements that may be made during this conference call regarding the company's business prospects, operational and financial projections and the goals are the beliefs and assumptions of Raízen's Executive Board based on current information available. These are forward-looking statements, and they depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors and analysts should be aware that events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the industry and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the respective forward looking statements. Today, we have the presence of the following company's executives: Ricardo Mussa, CEO; Carlos Moura, CFO and Investor Relations Officer; and Phillipe Casale, Head of IR. Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Casale. You may continue.

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the presentation of Raízen's results, kicking off the new crop year. I'm Philippe Casale, Investor Relations Director; and with me is our CFO, Carlos de Moura. I want to remind you that this presentation is being broadcast live on our YouTube channel with subtitles in Portuguese. Now I will hand over to Carlos to start the presentation.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This year is crucial for capturing the benefits of our investment agenda over the past 3 years, which includes more than 80% of our sugarcane fields reaching their potential, enhancing operational leverage, rolling out our E2G program, delivering on two plants by the end of this crop year, expanding the Shell integrated offers via the centrality of the dealer, expanding value from lubricants logistics service levels and Shell Box, delivering value from LatAm business, including the conclusion of the asset integrity program in Argentina and monetizing assets from solar distribution generation projects at Raízen Power. I would like to reinforce our commitment with the [indiscernible] expansion according to the continuous progress of our business, maintain the capital allocation discipline through a selective investment agenda, adjusting the project base when it's needed and preserving our investment grade with prudent and current leverage, reducing the impact of the net interest over the P&L. Now I will share with you the developments and results that we achieved in this quarter. The first pillar is mobility. We have seen a robust recovery in combined results from Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay compared to the same period of last year, given the consistency of our supply and pricing strategy, focusing on our contracted customer base. We increased our profitability, satisfaction and competitiveness across all regions with significant progress for Shell integrated offer, which includes: one, expanding Shell Box customer base and loyalty via Shell Box; second, increasing Shell Power commercialization and profitability; and third, the performance of our lubricants business in the region. Since acquiring the operation in Brazil, we have tripled EBITDA, delivering our investment theses. This result is due to the strategic repositioning of our sales emphasizing marketing and sales channel selectivity. Considering the combined operation, Lubricants expanded its EBITDA by 22% year-over-year. In Mobility Brazil, we have recorded a strong expansion compared to the first quarter of last more. It's important to note that the operational environment was impacted by the oversupply, especially of diesel due to the special fuel import regime in the state of Amapa, North Brazil. This measure affected the competitiveness amongst the [indiscernible]. After an intense advocacy from the sector the revocation of this regime normalizes the operational environment. As we have emphasized, the fuel sector in Brazil needs to keep pushing forward in the fight against illegal activities and simulate fair competition. We welcome the recent actions by the national petroleum agency ANP which revoked the licenses of companies which have violated standards, regulations and tax obligations. Vigilance has been intensified whether through the [indiscernible] ICL, media, sector entities and internally, the Shell DNA program, which verifies the product's compliance of our network. At mobility, besides the strong margin expansion, thanks to the effective management and supply handling, we are starting to perceive growth in volumes sold into B2B and fuel all segments, offsetting the lower gas volume in retail. Argentina's operation received the significant recognition from Shell as the global business partner of the year due to the -- its operational excellence, quality of the management, customer satisfaction across more than 850 stations. The consistent cash generation from our business in Argentina has led to reduced debt and for consequence, lower interest burdens with refinery modernization investments tend to be concluded in this crop year, the top priority of our LATAM operations will be the deleveraging on the release of the capital controls in Argentina. Moving on to the second pillar with sugarcane, starting with the agricultural productivity the early start of the cane harvest and dry weather allowed for a record crushing for a first quarter. This enabled us to advance in the production of sugar and ethanol and also energy cogeneration. It's crucial to highlight the focus on agroindustrial efficiency, capturing the benefits of increased crushing and absorbing the effects of inflation costs. Our Raízen excellence system [indiscernible] has notably driven the improvement of industrial performance, safety and energy efficiency. We have already achieved over 1 million hours of training for more than 35,000 employees. Our [indiscernible] program is also connected to [indiscernible] the expense management program for assuring the sustainability of the expenditures reduction initiatives. In the Sugar segment, our sales strategy will focus on a higher volume of full product sales over the next quarters, ensuring the segment's EBITDA growth and inventories positioning and fixed prices for this crop year will contribute to superior returns or future sugar pricing we have observed the opportunities to sustain the current level of return, considering prices in reals and supply and demand fundamentals. In Renewables, the strategy of and in the last crop year with a higher ethanol inventory proven to be accretive. The growing demand in the local market, coupled with the trend of more crop in Brazil is driving the recovery of ethanol prices which should positively contribute to results throughout this year. Additionally, Raízen's price will be leveraged by our premium of the product mix benefiting from our integrated value chain position. At Raízen Power, we maintained our position among the largest traders in the country and advancing the connection of new clients with nowadays over 100,000 clients connected in progressing in new partnerships. Finally, our second generation ethanol, the start-up of our second E2G plant at the [indiscernible] Bioenergy Park more than double the volumes produced this quarter. We will inaugurate two more plants: [ Baja and Lunivali ], by the end of this crop year with four operational plans and producing over 80 million liters of E2G. It's worth noting that each plant should reach its productive potential after 2 years of operation, gradually increasing the contribution margin. Now let's highlight the financial results. The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter reflects the higher contributions from mobility, offset by the seasonally lower results for sugar and ethanol. As usual, at the start of this crop year leverage is mainly impacted by the building up of the product inventories. Compared to the same period of last year, our sugar and ethanol inventories for future sales are higher aiming to navigate a more attractive pricing scenario. The leverage ratio tends to normalize by the end of this harvest staying below at 1.8x net debt to adjusted EBITDA with an average debt maturity of over 5 years in line with our capital management commitments. Operating cash flow was impacted by the seasonality of sales, increased inventories and receivables and the reduction in the balance of suppliers. It's important to emphasize that we continue to monetize tax credits as a complementary source of funds with over BRL 1.2 billion in this quarter, strengthening our balance sheet. In cash flow from investments, we are managing the pace of expenditures in line with capital priorities with a special focus in recovering agricultural use, delivering E2G plants and the asset integrity program at the refinery in Argentina. In financing activities, cash flow, we remain focused on liability management, in line with our commitment to maintain a robust balance sheet and reducing interest expenses. We are a Brazilian reference in green finance with distinguished transactions and market recognition. This quarter's financial results demonstrate our commitments to the financial discipline even in an environment with higher-than-expected interest rates and exchange rate volatility. Although the seasonality, we reiterate our guidance for the crop year. We foresee an expansion in results from the commercialization of sugar and ethanol inventories, the expansion of mobility margins, aiming BRL 150 per cube in Brazil as well as the savings captured through the Contango program. Regarding CapEx, I emphasize that we are entering in a new cycle with the delivery of results from investments that we have made in these years, as I mentioned before. We have been moderating the investment base without compromising our business plan as the macroeconomic environment demands even more selective capital allocation. To better illustrate this momentum, we have invested in three new E2G plants, one already operation, and two in the final stages of construction, one biogas plant, several solar distribution generation projects at Raízen Power and initiatives to enhance the operational and energy efficiency in Argentina. All of these investments will be completed by the end of this crop year, and we will expand our results. The ongoing recycling of our asset portfolio, we will also contribute for further risk reduction in our balance sheet. Before concluding, I would like to remind you that we recently released our integrated report for the 2023, '24 crop year, reinforcing our commitment with ESG and the positive impact of our business. Now we will move on to the Q&A session, which will feature our CEO, Ricardo Mussa.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley.

Well, first of all, I have -- we have been touching on this topic for a few quarters now. I want to pick your brains on the expectation of these stock levels because it's clear that the strategy of the company has been to administer and manage the ethanol and sugar stocks. But the comments that we just heard are they are more positive for the next quarters moving forward. So I would love to have an idea on what is the rhythm of this destocking through in the next 3 quarters. When it comes to mobility, I would also like to -- for you to shed some light. You talked about the margins for the month of August. If you can elaborate on that and the expectation for the second semester. If you expect to optimize and enhance even further after this quarter you just reported on? And the third question, if I may. It's really interesting if you could share some more financial information about the E2G considering the contribution margins. I would love to understand where this 14%. If I remember correctly, the figure, how does that compare to the curve that you expect on that contribution margin in a threshold? I mean if you take just one plant operating at 100% in line with what is expected, what is the expansion potential 14%?

Thank you, Bruno. This is Mussa. First of all, the rhythm, well I think we were spot on, on our decision with regards to ethanol. I think we made the right call. We held on to it, and we waited to sell at the right time. Which we're really excited about the prices that we are seeing, especially in the offseason. So it's really going to depend on how things are going to develop and the quality of ethanol at the pump. If it moves forward quickly. And if it happens before the off season, we expect sales to pick up and we could do that maybe in the second or third quarter if we see an even higher potential moving forward, it could be during in the off-season. Again, we are extremely confident we have the product. Now it's our decision when to let it go, and we will definitely do a good job with that. Sugar is very similar. We already have some things in line. There is no price risk in sites for sugar. So yes, it's pretty much set. There are -- there will be some good prices moving forward. All we have to do is we ship it in the next 2 quarters or so. So I think we could have a good destocking for that. Now speaking on mobility, here are the main factors, Bruno. As you have seen in our presentation, we removed [ Papa-Terra ], which in April was quite strong. And you have the legal issue to consider. So that reduced quite a bit. And recently, some of the distributors are accelerating in the market because there were a lot of irregularities, a lot of discounts prices. So the scenario is very positive, and it was positive in June and July, it's more positive now in August. The second point regarding that is that we are in a situation where the total diesel importation volume is some of the lowest for the last 2 years or so. Right now, the available diesel volume is very interesting. It's similar to the last to last year, we are seeing product at the port today, which used to be sold at [ PBI ], and it's now being sold at [indiscernible]. So now you're having imported product at a lower supply that, of course, makes for a tighter market and better margins. So it's a very, very positive scenario, very positive indeed with regards to the situation in the first quarter. I think that this is something that we all have to get used to. Our margins are not going to be as constant. There will be tighter quarters. That's why we put out the last 12 months results so that we can really take a look at the trend and the trend is quite positive. Some quarters will better, some quarters will be not as good, but you can see a progressive improvement and you see healthier level. So I'll let my colleague Carlos answer about E2G and what the expectation is with regards to that.

Good morning, Bruno. I hope everything is well with you. Thank you so much. Thank you, Mussa, as well. Now just one point that I would like to add on with regards to the ethanol stocks. And the presentation, of course, is available at our website, and you can look at the price curve result in the average price curve then the company has operated with a premium to the tune of 27% in the last 12 months. So if you apply the current price, which is at around 2,700 per cubic meter with ESALQ over that premium, you can see an effect on our mix. And you can see our position with regards to the stocks. And this is confirmed with the data points. And the second reminder that I would like to bring up is that the company between the second and third quarters, but probably early in the third quarter will be launching the Shell B Power ethanol center, which will add even more value on our ethanol sales. It will expand our margins in that way. Now I was thinking about E2G. What we can say, Bruno, is that we have a traditional concept with margin and contribution. So you have a base price applied to the contracts we have. Today, we have a backlog of EUR 4 billion in long-term contracts with the costs and expenses that are exclusively variable. So you can -- your enzymes, your clinical inputs, your costs regarding all these costs are 100% variable, and the logistics expenses are also varies. So that contribution margin, which is the initial signal, if you will, of the generation. And by the way we did an estimation in both equivalent to 40% of its production capacity. So you still have a very interesting leverage coming down. And if you have this potential of the contribution margin. And if you have it at 85% or 65%, the fixed cost would be an EBITDA of 55%. And the cash generation to the tune of 35% overall on the revenue. So yes, we are now going to start showing this track record, which was affected by a variation on the exchange rate and also the mix of contracts that we have to provide visibility to the financial community as far as how the program is going. The safety volumes to the millions of leaders with a 14% contribution margin, which to us seems to be quite significant, and it really confirms the economic model in [indiscernible]. Additionally, Bruno, we have a very interesting piece of information. Over 15 years ago, we had a theoretical number which was how much we could extract on of the gas in terms of ethanol leaders. And this year, in a very consistent way, we broke those records. We are in beyond that level. So even the productivity, which is how much you can extract by some of the gas considering our historical max is growing. It's even better than the plan that we had designed previously. So we are again super excited with the E2G development.

Our next question is from Luiz Carvalho from UBS.

Actually, I have two questions, if I may. One is more general in nature about capital allocation. So if I may split my question into one, what do you intend to do with the cash that will be generated in this crop year? So what is the mindset as far as how to allocate this capital? And on that same token, how is the conversation with regards to the portfolio adjustment, right? The potential of cogeneration and the review regarding that, you have announced some things in that regard. So how are things progressing? Perhaps selling some share in Argentina and to think about the logistics in that dynamics. So yes, the first question is about the capital allocation strategy and as well as the cash utilization as well as your portfolio management. So second question, if I may, about mobility. I would love to understand your perspective about these last events that occurred in the sector, [ Copa ] had its license revoked. And the dynamics with the Russian diesel that came in and then dried out. So I would really like to know how -- what is your take on the fuel distribution industry here in Brazil.

Thank you, Luiz. So very briefly, I will touch on both aspects. So Carlos can chime in. So with regards to capital allocation, our company, this, I think we have already gone through the initial ripples as far as our CapEx. Now our companies really is really going to focus on cash generation. We are starting to deleverage the company. So things are moving towards this direction. We also -- we always have a conversation about dividends with the Board always check our allocation is to make sure they are at the right place. This is more of a more conversation about the dividends, but we have a very strong focus. If you notice, this year, we have had major inauguration and now will generate cash and big investments are behind us. Again, three plants this year, you have the biogas plant, you have a sugar mill. You have the conclusion of the Argentinian investment. Everything is this year. So now it's time to what we have shown and start generating some cash. With regards to the portfolio, of course, we cannot disclose all the details, but we are always actively analyzing our portfolio. We always have an eye to optimization. We are always trying to deleverage the company faster and invest in what makes sense. So the [indiscernible] announcements. We are recycling our portfolio quite a bit. Of course, again, we cannot disclose further details, but we -- you can look at us as major capital allocators with a lot of capital discipline in terms of the elevated interest rates to be able to generate cash and deleverage the company. So this is a crucial year for us on that. Now regarding mobility, well I think we have a positive scenario, Luiz. And I think that society itself is getting at in that aspect, which is very good. So we see a movement not only with regards to the legal fuel aspect. We see that in the media. We see that in different states and the Federation as a whole. Many people fighting against organized crime. We know that fuel is a very delicate sector, because of course, it involves a lot of money laundering. And we see a lot of mobilization in a way that I haven't seen in a long time. There is a discussion about the anticipation [indiscernible] and it's one thing that has to do with the tax aspect as well. But again, this is tough work. And I think that in the last 4 years, this is one of the best moments. So of course, we cannot built because it's good for society. This is good for companies a whole for serious businesses in the market. So it's a quite positive movement. So we're excited about it. But again, it's not easy work. It's a tough job, and it's something that is not going to be overnight. We have a tough road ahead of us, and we are -- we keep applying pressure. But it's the best scenario that I've seen in a while.

Our next question comes from Isabella Simonato from Bank of America.

I would like to go back to the balanced aspect in the cash flow, so Carlos, you pointed out that the EBITDA in the end of this season is around 1.8, which means an increase in the leverage year-over-year and with EBITDA that are relatively similar. So I would like I would like to know if you can shed some light on it. Of course, there are some figures that cannot be disclosed, but I would like to know what is the rationale behind this estimation that you presented. And moving forward, how can we -- what pace can we expect -- can we expect in that deleveraging, the ratio itself or the net debt considering that you are in this cycle where you are slowing down your CapEx. So can you please provide some color perhaps even with regards to the CapEx trajectory and the size of the drop that we can expect. You show the graph and you have been talking about that for a little while. So yes, again, some color on the estimation of that 1.8 million and how this could perform moving forward.

Good morning, Isa. Thank you so much for your question. Thanks for the opportunity also to clarify this aspect. We start on the average points of EBITDA compare it to the CapEx, which is what we are converting to do, you are talking about a cash generation in the order of 4.5, right? So the company, as you can see, has been navigating its working capital in a very disciplined way, we are allocating our surplus to the stocks, as Mussa said very well as the reduction of leverages with suppliers at different risks. So we have had quite a strong position with that because we are optimizing the margins. And we managed to monetize BRL 1.2 billion in tributary credit. We had been doing BRL 1 billion per quarter. And now this pace will pick up because we are able to do that. If you notice, we had a very nice outcome with regards to the ICMS tax but also we had a good result on the recovery of the PIS and COFINS tax, roughly BRL 700 million and counting. And so we managed to work with a lower cash level compared to the past. We are going to continue to accelerate the tax interest reduction to alleviate our balance. And the starting point that we started with 2024, 2025, it's 1.3, because if you recall, we did a lot of liability management between February and March. And so that generated an initial distortion in our leverage, which we are correcting for this year. So we should be at 1.6x. And I believe that we are -- we could go as high as 1.8%. We're being conservative with 1.8 because of the exchange situation as well. But -- we should have a nice moderation with that regard this year. So it's reasonable to suggest 1.6 to 1.8. And moving forward, we're going to expand our EBITDA with regards to the price cycle, which is higher in sugar and ethanol. So this is -- this is clear. This is perceivable. And additionally, we are navigating on an environment with better margins in the fuel sector in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. We are also shedding some light on the EBITDA generation in lubricants, which has been a very important growth factor, and it has generated some results as well as the materialization of the E2G business. A lot of people do not consider the E2G aspect in their modeling. I think that as of next year, you'll be able to see the materiality on the EBITDA. So we can generate additional cash flow -- operating cash flow and the management the company is doing is proved to be very positive with regards to our investment grade. So we are accessing leverages that our competitors do not have, whether it's on fuel distribution, whether it's on renewables and sugar and we should be navigating with a CapEx below BRL 10 billion in the next few years. And by the way, we are reducing our investment in Argentina because we will conclude the revamp investments in our refinery. And we are going to focus on renewables, the investments on E2G, always adjusting to the macroeconomic and the macroeconomic scenario. But we believe there is no need for us to go beyond BRL 9.5 billion to BRL 10 billion. Always, again, reserving our investment in our agricultural business because we are producing as far as value reserves in this sector in the last few years and the benefit that it has generated to our margins is a question really. So we will be a company which will navigate in the order of 5.5 to 6.5 in terms of primary cash flow generation and lower interest rate and with a nice working capital situation still with [indiscernible] credit stocks that are important. So again, if you -- if this is your starting point, if you get out of this addition is currently 4.5, moving to 6.5 down the road, you can see how much that will benefit our balance sheet and also considering the cash flow -- the free cash flow generation moving forward.

Our next question comes from Thiago Duarte from BTG.

I would like to start with a follow-up from the E2G discussion. Just one data point that I think we should bring up with regards to the new plants since it's been ramped up at the moment. How much do you consider to be reasonable in terms of how much would be sustainable to use that nominal capacity of 82 million liters per year. So that eventually you can reach as high as 50% contribution margin, just like Carlos said. So that's the first question. It's about the capacity generation in a realistic manner with the E2G plans. And the second question that I have, since we are in the third quarter of the crop year, and since there's been good yield, good productivity, as you have showed so far, I would love to hear some comments about how much is it feasible to allocate for that production cash, which is relatively stable, right? I mean the operating leverage gain was a little offset by the input cost. So I wanted to understand if you consider this to be a feasible dynamics for the remainder of the crop year since you have good visibility, good estimation on the costs and the quality of the sugarcane that is out in the field reaching the mills. And last question to Carlos. Carlos, you briefly mentioned about the monetization process of the [indiscernible] credits BRL 1.2 billion in this quarter. So how much do you think the company can monetize [indiscernible] because the credit generation is still higher then the monetization of those credits I want to understand if it makes sense for us to think about the monetization in net terms in the near future. That's it.

Thiago, I'll briefly touch on E2G and Carlos can take the next two. Now the number that we have here in said 77. 77 is the number that we are estimating. This is the number in terms of millions of liters. This is what we believe that we'll be able to put out. 72, yes from 82. Yes, from 82 to 77.

Good morning, Thiago. Pleasure to address you. I just wanted to review some contents with you because it is important. In your question, you mentioned that the contribution margin would be 50%, which is not. In our modeling the EBITDA would be 50% margin, with a cash conversion to the tune of 70% out of that 50%, which leads us to a cash conversion of 35%. The contribution margin is part of that EBITDA. So in other words, you have the price less minus the cost and expenses, which are variable and that should take us to a potential in the order of 75%. And then if you can payroll and the effects of different fixed costs that we have, for example, maintenance costs. In this case, we would have an EBITDA margin of 50%. So just to recap. If you take the price with a basis of 100 and a contribution margin of 55, you have 50 EBITDA and 35 cash conversion okay? So with regards to productivity, our cash cost has been basically propelled by three factors Vectors. First, [indiscernible], which is our operating excellence system. It has ensured us many, many benefits, we garner many benefits in the company, and we proudly achieved over 1 million hours of training covering roughly 30,000 staff. So operating excellence does make a difference in your cost because you can have more stability. And also you have a supply policy, which is very much spot on ran by Francis and the team we have here to make sure that we can have the best purchasing conditions for inputs and also the best replenishing conditions, the best supply as far as raw materials for our production process. And number three, you have a nice industrial agricultural yield we have reached a level which is very positive, thanks to the investments that we made on renovating our fields. And if we came to different conditions, stable if you don't have any big shocks on the exchange rate, if you don't have any huge impact on diesel that will affect the situation. I think we should be able to be at around 2% reduction in our CPA, which that will definitely impact our production costs. And the third aspect, which is about monetization of the [indiscernible] credit, we have explored and I think we did quite a nice job to do with that. In the last few years, we explored the opportunity of generating tax credits in our balance sheet. And whenever you have that opportunity. We have a legislation here in Brazil, which is a major example of that. We were actually criticized when we first created this credit. And at the end of the day, our competition followed suit and copied us. You see that competitors are making those credits available as well. So the company shows what it's capable of. As of the next crop year, Thiago I think we'll see a reduction in that reduction already happened in Argentina. If you look at the situation, if you compare the balances, that reduction has happened on the ICMS tax, but PIS and COFINS tax, since we -- it takes some time. And more recently, you have the credit the way to the point of BRL 1.8 billion, which will probably become a different mechanism, and we will have a reduction of the net balance moving forward as of the next year.

Our next question is from Gabriel Barra from Citi.

I actually have two questions. First, to piggy back on the fuel matter. This is a discussion that we have constantly about the improvements of margins, right? We have been talking about that since the last semester. But at the same time, we are seeing a lower market share with the three major players in the market. And there's been a bit of a shift in the strategy in the sector. We see more of a focus on the fair share which has a return that we can see is sustainable in the mid to long term. And my question, I would like to know from you about that fair share aspect in your opinion, the market share that the company is operating today is that the market size? Is that how the market should be considering the conditions and how this discussion about improving the formality and even importation, just like Mussa said, amongst the market is a little more well balanced. So how can we how can we interpret this market share moving forward? What would be some of the triggers for us to pay attention to for the increase in market share without it being without having it deteriorate our margins. And the second point to piggy back on the ethanol topic, since 2017 or '18, we have seen an expansion in corn ethanol, and there's been not a struggle, but perhaps a rebalancing of the ethanol market in Brazil. We see many projects coming up. We are producing close to 7 billion liters of corn ethanol. This is a market that can reach 10 billion in a short time. And there's a lot of projects coming down the pike. So I want to know how -- what is your take on that competition from corn ethanol? And how can you sort of shield yourselves from that and maintain your size in the market, given that you can have better access than other competitors. So yes, that competition with corn ethanol and how you position with regards to that.

Perfect, Gabriel. So when it comes to market share, we have not lost market share quite contrary. We are absolutely focused on our distributors. So when you look at the market share reduction, all the market share was in TRR, which is I want to share that, I always mentioned, if we want to recover that market share tomorrow, we can do it, but it's not really in our sights right now. We want to focus on our network. We want to help our distributors, which is , I think, the right tactic. You talked about fair share. If you look at it, I think fighting against illegality, really opens up a lot of opportunity. There's a great deal of the market that does operates illegally. If you look at the single phase of the ethanol, that's a very important trigger for you to be able to gain back market share and further improve your profitability levels. I look forward I am an optimist in terms of the market share and good market share that is, which is the regular market share, a healthy market share with good margins. This is very much related to reducing the illegality levels that we are seeing right now. And we are going to have a tax reform that is going to affect this change, especially with ethanol is the main problem that suffers with illegality. So there is room for improvement our margins, and we can increase our good market share lousy market share, which you can only get with price. This is not the strategy of the company. Well, corn ethanol has a different characteristic in the sense that it's much more disseminated around Brazil, much more scattered. So you see production of ethanol in places where you didn't have before. And you also have a change in our network of fuel, so you have hydrated ethanol in Northern Brazil, which is something you didn't have before. So a great deal of the mode gross or ethanol will go up to the north side of the country. When you talk about competition, I look at corn ethanol, that is a competitor. But as a great source of renewables to our network, considering our logistics structure, we can benefit from that new product because it's present in regions that didn't exist before. So again, corn ethanol is getting market share from gas, but not from sugarcane ethanol because Brazil still imports gas and corn ethanol goes where sugarcane ethanol doesn't go. We are some of the major purchases today. So we have an enviable logistics position we can benefit from this new product source. And what we see is that in our case, we export a great deal of our sugarcane ethanol, which goes to the industry have capacity to take our own product out there with better value for markets that pay more, and we can use more ethanol inside in here in our own distribution to have a more competitive product. So again, I think it's very welcome for this increase that corn ethanol production. I think it's taking market from the imported gas market and especially in regions where you didn't have any consumption previously. So what you're going to see is more ethanol sales in Northern Brazil, in Northeastern Brazil because it's creating more competition in places where you didn't have that before. So I think we should see a reduction on the gas importation in those locations. And we see them as partners, and we are major producers of corn ethanol in Brazil.

Our next question comes from Guilherme Palhares from Santander.

Well, you had an excellent price situation with regards to the sugar sold even though the volume is low. I think the pricing you have attained even in the sugar market has been quite positive. So if you can please talk about where this improvement comes from because it was quite important when you consider the New York 11 contract. And one other point that I would just like to make clear based on your speech Carlos, you talked about the 50% EBITDA margin within E2G and I want to know if that considers the cost of the gas in that math or if that cost, given that it's a different part of the business is not being considered when you talk about the 50% margin? And if it is part of that calculation and if we exclude that the gas cost, how much that would leave us, what would be the EBITDA margin for E2G in that case?

Thank you, Guilherme. Well, to your question about sugar, we are -- I mean the world continues -- I mean, the sugar stocks continue to be quite low around the world. There is one piece of news that was really positive, India did not approve the expectation of sugar in that movement. So I think that folks are really underestimating the late season period. If you look at the UNICA numbers, you see a market, you see a market where the production or the product productivity early in the season tends to have a bigger drop at the end. I think the market has not priced yet. And the other point is that this is the toughest year for the sugar mix. So if you look at the different companies, all of them are struggling to have the same sugar mix as last year. The trash level in sugarcane is higher this year. We can get a little technical on talking about that, but I think those two aspects point to a scenario at the end of the season, which I don't know how the market is going to price sugar. I think we are very well positioned. We have better prices than last year. We are looking a lot at the next season with regards to reducing risk going to have a next season with a lighter CapEx and more cash generation. So if you remove the risk of the ethanol price, you'll guarantee a good situation next year. So we want to know if the market will give us a chance to fix prices even more, even better because prices are still elevated. We are still very positive and good. So we know the risk management, Guilherme. We are looking at the next season as opposed to the season, but I still see a lot of potential to having an increase on the sugar prices. Carlos, if you want to talk about E2G and the gas.

Just to add on to the sugar question -- and nice to talk to you, Guilherme, by the way. Our fixation levels is a record fixation level. What we have done is a weekly risk committee meeting. We are assessing our position continuously. And more recently, we benefited from the exchange overshooting, notably for the '25/'26 season. And so our release, our presentation shows our hedge levels. So if you compare the levels of average fixation from '21, '22 to '24, '25. We are now at BRL 115 per pound. So it's really remarkable. Now with regards to treating the contribution margins at E2G, we also would on the release that the gas is included in that variable cost, and it could be no different. So all the gas consumed in the plan is traded. So it goes through CPV, and it is treated it's treated as a variable cost. And it could be no different. The economic modeling has that premise. So that 75% of potential that I mentioned. Today, we are at 14%, and that considers the gas. And also that 50% EBITDA margin, that includes all the fixed cost and the variable cost that also considers the gas, okay?

So just to clarify, when we talk about that cost, the E2G, the gas cost, we can consider that to be close to the cogeneration contracts that we -- that you have, right? We're not talking about the PLD prices. Yes, just to clarify one point that Mussa said as well. When we look at the price of sugar, not necessarily your own sugar, but I think the pricing, is pricing the sugar of the trading, right? So I just want to clarify if that's the analysis you're making and -- if we can see that trading business providing results on next year.

Okay I understand your question. So I'll answer the sugar question first, and then Carlos will talk about the guest. Now I understand your question. My mistake. So yes, in our sugar trade strategy, we have been spot on as well. We have grown to be one of the largest players in the world and will continue to grow. So it does add to our price -- if you look at the sugar trade prices, that's pretty good. And we're just getting started with that. With regards to the gas cost, well, this is the attributable the gas cost. So you have cogeneration, which is part of the process of cogen and the part that is consumed by E2G, which is also attributed to it. So yes, there is an opportunity here.

Our next question comes from Gustavo Sadka from Bradesco.

Well, the first question is about mobility. Could you shed some more color with regards to the difference in BRL 23 of the margin? And what would be how much that BRL 23 is CBIO, how much that is stock variation. And my second question, my follow-up is with regards to the monetization of tax credit. If it would be fair to consider that, that would be roughly BRL 4 billion of monetization this year and an additional BRL 4 billion for the next 3 years with rough terms. Is that rationale correct?

Well, with regards to mobility, this differential basically is the withdrawn cost. If you compare the inventory in CBIO, that was a very discrete difference with regards to the monetization of tax credits. My boss really demands that from me. So if you put that as a target, I all accept it, but I think we'll do at least that much. So yes, 4 billion that's a good projection. That's a good modeling. But Mussa is really pressing on me on that one, and he's asking me to go north of that.

Next question from Lucas Ferreira, JPMorgan.

Well, the first question is about investment. So you have done some things, but correct me if I'm wrong as far as divestment opportunities, maybe this agenda gains some priority in the last few quarters. So I guess my question is are you working on that? Is this agenda moving forward? And the next question is to Carlos, just a follow-up on the balance sheet, as a matter of fact, in that 1.8 leverage scenario, what is your estimation for dividends this year? Is it something similar to last year or not? And if it is in that 1.8, perhaps there is some room for more dividends and about the working capital because, of course, it's a seasonal market, it depends on stocks. But when you talked about the trade-off of margins and you talked about the working capital and the efficiency aspect. So my question is how much do you expect to see as far as the working capital calculation in 12 months after you exclude the seasonal effects, what should be the working capital?

Okay. So I'll talk about divestment first. Of course, we cannot disclose a lot of information on that. Just like I said to Luiz, we are always actively analyzing our portfolio this year more so than ever. So yes, we are taking a very close look at our portfolio. We are seeing some movements here. So should be something around that. But I cannot disclose additional information. We are a publicly traded company, so we've got to be careful. Yes. So with regards to leveraging, the Board has been quite active and quite attentive quite diligent in terms of preserving our balance sheet and reducing its risk especially in this investment cycle we are going through and also considering the macroeconomic volatility. So within our principles of capital management and these principles, we actually use the word commitments because they are secret. It may come from the Board. So we want to preserve our investment grade, and we want to have a CapEx which is ever more selective and well dosed. And I made it a point to mention the pace and the rhythm we always want to have options. So the dividend discussion is ongoing and throughout the drop year the Board will give us a direction. So there is nothing predefined with that because the Board wants to see -- wants to fundamentally see our stocks being materialized, we want to have our positions, and we want to have a development on the margins that we -- that we have. In the second semester, we already see this effect. Now looking at the working capital management, like you said very well, at the end of the crop year, we have a realization of our stocks in a more complete way. So we should terminate our stocks and end up with zero in both sugar and ethanol. In fuels, you know that there is a volatility aspect with regards to the market. So you have to be on a capital level, which is ready to cater to the business demand and you have to realize a lot of receivables. So there should be a slightly positive working capital scenario. And it depends more on the mobility aspect because it may very well demand some additional stock if it is desired, depending on the arbitration of the diesel and the situation with gas.

Next question is from André Reis from MFS Investment Management.

I want to elaborate on something that Carlos said about the current ethanol prices. using the current exchange rates and the premium that you mentioned, the history of 27% you have in the market. So there is an equivalent price of ethanol in terms of cents per pound of 17.5, which is very close to the price of sugar. Given that you are some of the largest ethanol producers in the planet, and the trend we see in the world with regards to exportation, especially sugar exportation in Brazil. What is your take on this mix of sugar and ethanol moving forward? And what is the impact that, that should have that the current ethanol prices should have in this global supply and demand scenario for sugar?

Thank you, André. We should always remember that sugar is a very inelastic product. So the demand -- the supply -- or the demand for sugar varies very little compared to price. What determines the sugar price is always the supply. So since the sugar demand is very inelastic, it has been growing quite a bit between and 0.5% and 0.9% a year, which is almost 2 million tonnes. You need to how much more sugar we have every year, and it's been a long time since the world hasn't increased the capacity. So structurally, sugar needs to have higher prices to attract more production. What has happened if you look at the graph of the sugar price. It has changed levels. And with that, we are attracting additional investment on the sugar mix, so sugar is even more resilient product than ethanol. On the other hand, ethanol has a certain price formation, which is very closely related to the oil prices to gasoline. So you have a situation where ethanol suit with the gas prices, and we had a huge distortion last year. So I think that to me, this dynamic is not going to change in the short term. Brazil changes its mix to ethanol, the sugar price will react immediately. So I don't see that in the short term. I don't see a change in the mix which is not a skewed towards sugar. I think it's going to continue to be max sugar because if Brazil starts migrating to ethanol, sugar will react quickly. Today, we don't have the sugar stocks to change that mix. And by the way, we can have a crop failure because climate change is out there and happening. So that's why second-generation ethanol is really, really relevant because you don't have to change the mix. You don't have to increase the acreage to increase the ethanol production and cater to the new emerging demands. So in here, André, I think -- I don't know if I answered your question, but this is a very positive outlook, in my opinion, to where you have a guarantee of higher sugar prices. And right now, you start having more of an investment on sugar, which is going to I think make sugarcane more focused on like focus on sugarcane and corn ethanol will become no doubt a more relevant player.

André, this is Carlos. Just to touch on that rationale that you alluded to with regards to ethanol. You see in our presentation the ESALQ price curves and ESALQ price, which was a 2,700 some in June, so it's reasonable for you to put a premium on top of it because the history of the premium we have in the mix between high graded and hydrous and special products, which we sell in Brazil and which we export, you have an average premium of 27%. So when you apply 27% to that 2,705, you reach a margin or a price pardon me, that when you acquire that volume of stock, you can have a margin comparison. Now with regards to sugar, you did a reverse math, right? My recommendation is for you to do that math in reals for two reasons. First, because the decision that you make is a prospective decision. So you're looking at price in each one of the future situations and the exchange rate at that moment for the future exchange. So when you do that reverse calculation. Now the exchange rate, you might not necessarily know what is the price on fixed dollars. And the second reason for that is that the totality of our cost, our fixed and variable cost in sugar are in BRL. So margin in BRL is going to help you do that. So the fixed price applied to the stocks that we have, which is valued at cost. We'll also give you a good idea about the implicit margin here on our balance sheet, which will be realized in the next semesters.

I'm going to read the question now from Ricardo Bernardino. I would like you to give us the vision as far as the SAF development in Brazil and the impact of this new product in the ethanol. Thank you, Ricardo, for your question. We learned with the SAF market is that this is a very difficult market. So you're not going to have a change in the short term for the aircraft. Even if you have an aircraft that takes a long -- it takes a long time to change the aircraft around the world. So this is a sector that will decarbonize quicker considering biofuels. So clearly, you have two routes you have one, which is called [ Reefer and the Auto Jet ] the auto jet interest us. And what we have seen throughout the world is a division of the mandate. So the mandates now were quite clear. I think governments understand that airlines have to follow that path. Consumers are going to pay more at the end, not that much more, but they can afford it. So what we see are very clear mandates with dates that are very clear to be implemented. And we have a division today part of SAF comes from the [ Reefer ] technology and the other part from auto jets. So that being said, when you have [indiscernible] when you have a clear mandate for that, you have a very clear incentive for SAF production in Brazil, just by a logistic reason every 1.7 liters of ethanol, you have 1 liter of SAF. So the best place to put a SAF plant will be at their source here in Brazil. And of course, there is a discussion if a lot of companies are waiting if governments are going to change their mandates, if they're going to postpone them, I believe they want and there will be a race. Our second-generation ethanol is very much in line with the SAF market. There is a lot of people looking at that. There's a lot of people looking at the SAF reduction, especially in Europe through the second-generation ethanol. So over here, Ricardo, we have a very high volume really changes. It really moves the needle as far as the SAF. And yes, I think that's the issue for the future projection of SAF, and that's where ethanol comes in. So we are seeing that not only on SAF, but folks ask me, and I have no question about the future demand for ethanol. The discussion is where, which routes will be more successful faster. I think considering the mandate SAF when you have a mandate, the secondary price will come quicker. We are also adding a lot of bio banker. But again, there is more of a demand than we can meet today.

The Q&A session is now over. Written questions that were not answered during this earnings call will be answered by the Investor Relations team later on. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Ricardo Mussa for his final remarks.

First message is that we continue to have a very positive year. The fundamentals are rock solid. If you look at the first quarter last year, I mean have mobility with much better margins. Now we have a clear trend on the improvement on those margins. Argentina is performing much better, even better than what we had estimated. Price-wise doing really well as well. agricultural yield, which has always been our [indiscernible], this year is doing very well compared to the market. Sugar prices are well fixated and ethanol. Our estimations are even higher than before. So our confidence is very high. I think we will deliver. This is a great year operationally. And the team is super motivated to make it happen. So again, we have a lot of confidence that we will deliver one of the best years, if not the best year of reason so far. Second generation ethanol is having a very important year. We have three plants going operational. So that becomes a reality. And now we're going to have a lot of good news to share moving forward. We're going to provide more visibility and you're going to understand these dynamics even more. There's a lot of discussion going around. But I think in a nutshell, we are very confident we are going to deliver this year. And let's go strong to next quarter.

We hereby conclude the presentation of the results of the first quarter of the crop year 2024, 2025 of Raízen S.A. The Investor Relations team department is available to answer further questions that you might have. Thank you so much to all the participants, and have a great afternoon.