Randoncorp S.A. ($RAPT4)
Earnings Call Transcript · March 13, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Caroline Colleto
ExecutivesHello. Welcome, everyone, to this video conference for sharing the results of Randoncorp related to the fourth trimester of 2025 and accumulated so far in the year. We have simultaneous translation to English and sign language interpretation. To follow up the audio in English, you can click on the interpretation button located in the bottom bar of your screen and you select the function, mute original audio, so you can listen only to the translation. We also inform you that this video conference has been recorded, and it will be available for our -- in our website, ri.randoncorp.com. Some declarations that can express some perspective of businesses and projections and goals, they are not a guarantee of performance. They involve risks and uncertainties because they are related to future events. Therefore, they depend on circumstances that may or may not happen. All of the material related to the results presented in this event, including release, presentations and spreadsheets for support, they are all already available in our website. Now going on to our schedule for today. We're going to get started with our CEO, Daniel Randon, -- he's going to share his message. After that, Paulo Prignolato, the Vice President, CFO and IRO of the company, he's going to share the main highlights; and then Esteban Angeletti, RI Director and Finance, he's going to share the results of the company as well. And then at last, we're going to have our Q&A session monitored by Davi Bacichette, Manager of our RI and Finance. And then we have the participation of Hemerson De Souza, Director of RI. [Operator Instructions] Now I'm going to share the microphone with our CEO, Daniel Randon, to get started with our presentations.
Daniel Randon
ExecutivesGood morning, everyone. It's a pleasure for me to be here in one more video conference of the results for Randoncorp. 2025 was a demanding year and transforming year for all of us. We started the year doing the greatest acquisition in our history, the Dacomsa in Mexico, a big step in our expansion in North America and is amplifying the resilience of our businesses by means of the aftermarket segment. But in the same period, we started facing macroeconomics segment, which was adverse with elevated interest in Brazil, more credit selectiveness and geopolitical uncertainties that affected chains and decisions for investments. We also had tariff disputes in many geographic sites. They brought instability, not only here in Brazil, but around the world. This scenario put pressure on our markets with a strong reduction in the demand for semi traders along the year. And in the case of trucks, it was even more expressive in the second semester. This decrease in rate of sales demanded a high work of restructure along 2025 with the adoption of many measures, so we could adequate the company to this new context between the several actions that we took. I'd like to highlight the strengthening of our financial structure, reinforcing the management of working capital and it showed great decrease on the year. And we did capturing strategic partnerships that helped us to reduce our debts and gain leverage. The advantages of these initiatives are going to be addressed by Paulo in his presentation. Now talking about specifically the fourth quarter of 2025. This period reflected integrally the challenges of the year, lower volumes and in some cases, even 40% lower to the same period in 2024. This seasonal issues with collective vacations with longer periods of stoppage in comparison to the other years and expenses, one-offs -- one-off expenses, impairments and provisions that put pressure on our profitability. Even so, I highlight that we reached the main indicators of our guidance in 2025 with a consolidated revenue, EBITDA margin adjusted and investment within this time frame. Besides the challenges, we move on investing in the pillars of the future, people innovation, quality and sustainability. In the last 4 quarters, we announced changes in the governance to get better synergies and speed up the digitalization of the company. The advanced technology vertical is now called -- advanced technology and digital strategies since the first quarter in the 2026, integrating the Delta and Randon Ventures and now vertical -- the vertical Solutions working with consortiums, insurance and banks. I also want to highlight that we strengthened the ESG agenda with our participation in COP30, having dialogues with companies and governments about a more sustainable future. And with our adherence to the First Movers Coalition, is a global initiative led by the Economic World Forum, uniting companies to speed up the decarbonization in this heavy carbon industries. It aligns with our strategy in this theme, acting in industrial initiatives and technologies that are connected to the agenda. We believe it's fundamental for the sustainability of the business in the long-term. We wrap up the year learning a lot, and we are more prepared than ever and stronger than ever to the new cycle. In relation to 2026, we know that the challenges are still ahead but being diverse in our businesses and more -- having more balance between OEM and aftermarket and our global presence being more robust besides the financial discipline, it gives us a more positive perspective into the future, putting us in a favorable position to capture the benefits of the resumption when it happens. On screen, you can see our projections for 2026. Our guidance has been released yesterday by -- because of a relevant fact. And in the document, you have all the premises that we use to project all of the indicators. The year goes on with many challenges in our markets that still require caution in the projections given the uncertainty context, but we have positive news from the important markets as the new contract, which is relevant for supplying wagons, railcars foreseen for May 2026 and November 2027. BRL 170 million in revenue is going to be added in this period. More details of this transaction, you can find in the relevant fact that we shared with the market in January. It's available in our website for RI. Everything that we've done in 2025 and we will continue to be doing in 2026, the main goal is to transform our company into something even stronger and solid, recovering our margins and profitability. In this way, we continue to focus on capturing synergies of the recent acquisitions and integration of these new businesses. We move on with a lot of austerity in our investments, preserving our cash. And of course, focusing in optimization of the necessity of working capital and realizing the expenses, which is a powerful combination to reduce the leverage of our company. I want to wrap up, say thank you specifically for everyone who participate in our journey in 2025. Our employees, our clients, suppliers, investors, partners, their dedication and trust and partnership were essential for us to move on, evolving and building a company that is even stronger, innovative and sustainable within our purpose of connecting people and wealth, generating prosperity. Now I move along to Paulo, so he can move on with the presentation.
Paulo Prignolato
ExecutivesThank you, Daniel. Good morning, everyone, who's watching us in our video conference. I'm going to get started bringing a bird's eye view in the other markets we work on. Getting started with the trucks. The Brazilian market finished 2025 in retraction, pressured by the macroeconomic challenging environment, like Daniel mentioned. The sales were in total BRL 113,000 in the year, a little less in 2024, being affected by the reduction of the demand in agribusiness and by the investments that were delayed by huge scale operations but affected a lot of attention and impacted our operations was the change in the production dynamics, especially in the last quarter of the year. The OEM for focusing in reduction of their stocks. And for that, they had longer programmed stoppages and amplify their vacation period. So with that, the lower amount of vehicles production were 34% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in the last -- in the previous year. Now on the heavy vehicle industry, this reduction was even more intense, up to 45% in the same period for comparison. So this rhythm was also evident in the beginning of 2026. Even though we have news like the release of Move Brazil, it's a financial -- financing line for new trucks and semi new trucks, we still haven't seen great changes due to this initiative. Now going to semitrailers. The number of new licensing reflected a similar dynamics for the heavy truck industry that I mentioned earlier. The year ended with since 170,000 semi-trailers, almost 20% less than the previous year. The product line is more affected by this context for agribusiness and the fuel tanks. On the other side, the aftermarket, which is fundamental for our operations, has maintained resilient along 2025. The maturing of the fleet and more need for maintenance in the vehicle besides the strengthening of the structure of this segment in the past few years sustained the demand. Now going to an environment outside of Brazil, we observed a good demand in countries from Latin America for all of our segments. On the other hand, in the United States, they had sales in a lesser level given the uncertainty because of the tariffs. And these features all contributed for the results in the fourth quarter, and it's a base for the results that I'm going to show you now. Net revenue, it represented a small decrease, even though it was impacted by the deceleration of the truck market and semitrailer market. There has been a positive effect by addition of the new businesses and there was BRL 530 million in this quarter. EBITDA margin presented a decrease because of the great volume and diminish of fixed taxes. The net revenue has been affected by the results and the one-off expenses registered in the past 12 months and also impacted our result -- net result, not only in the quarter but in the year-to-date. On the one-offs, I would like to highlight that the most relevant one registered in the quarter is related to the provisions related to the legal battle of our client in our JV. And now talking about our indebtment, we have been maintaining a very disciplined posture in managing the leverage of the company, even in this transformation period, which is so challenging, we have quite good investments in the beginning of the year, strategic moves and impact of some events. We finished this December of 2025 with a good reduction in our net debt, especially when comparing to the closure of the first trimester of 2025. And I highlight that times plateau that we reached is a result especially of the following initiatives. Capturing in the markets, capturing the Randoncorp and following with Frasle Mobility, all of that generated BRL 400 million cash for the company. And it added in December approximately BRL 200 million available. The control on investment and expenses and the optimization of our NCG that in the second semester of 2025, represented a reduction of BRL 1.4 billion that I'm going to explain in more detail. All of these movementation sustained the reduction of leverage in the company. Also with a 3.5x, our net debt, something that we have done within our financial discipline, the reduction of the average cost of our debt and increasing the period for payments. So even though the rate of the Selic, our total cost is inferior to this indicator of the debt rolling. I highlight the 6 additional debentures that happened in the fourth quarter of last year that we captured BRL 500 million with this movement. And we finished the year with a solid cash, able to support the needs in the short and medium term, and everything is concentrated for 2025, reinforcing the consistency of our financial strategy. As I mentioned before, the optimization of NCG was a very important topic for the company along the year. And in the second semester, here, we are harvesting part of the actions implemented to reduce this indicator. As you can see on screen, the variation of the NCG with BRL 1.4 billion, many initiatives, which I'd like to mention the addition of FIDC. And diminish of the stocks, especially in semitrailers, with sales campaign and also adequating the production rhythm. We know that the last quarter is a seasonal one, and the initiatives with higher impact happened in 2025. But I highlight that in 2026, the plan doesn't change, and we will move on searching for more efficiency with some opportunities that we already have in our radar. And to finish my presentation here, I bring some data related to the performance in the Randoncorp in market capital. The numbers presented show you the scenario that we already have pressure more a version of risk in the local market. It doesn't change, however, our vision or fundamentals in the company, focusing the execution and better profitability, which determines the capture in media and long-term. Now Esteban is going to detail our indicators.
Esteban Angeletti
ExecutivesThank you, Paulo. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to get started talking about the net revenue of fourth quarter of 2025. We wrap up the period with a little retraction in comparison to the fourth quarter of 2024. Even though we faced significant reduction of volumes in our main markets, that happened because of the impacts of decreasing or lessened by our international expansion comparison to the same period in the previous year. And also, increasing our portfolio in Mogi Guaçu with the production and sales of front axles for trucks. We see on screen in the graph that will show you more information about this indicator. Agribusiness and industry, they had the greatest decreases in the comparison. Semitrailers, it has been more affected by high interest. In terms of agribusiness, besides the credit issues, we also have the prices of commodities. They are in a low plateau given specifically the low offering of grains. In the segment of the service, good performance there, especially given the growth in revenues in the companies and the Randon Bank and by the expansion of clients in the DB with new contracts being signed. The aftermarket shows some retraction in the Mexican market comparison to the fourth quarter of 2024 besides the reduction of the volume in some areas. And by the end, I would like to highlight the total nonorganic revenues added in the period and how they have been essential for the maintenance of this indicator. It's important to remember that all comparisons of the revenues have been affected by the reduction of working days with this long periods of vacation in comparison to previous years. In more detail now, comparing our revenues to the external market, we can see by the information on the screen, a great increasing of this indicator and its representative in comparison to all of the revenues of Randoncorp. That's the result of our internationalization efforts that has been put in the past few years. From this total, the vertical of movement control represented around 68% of the revenues with the OEMs representing 20%, and all of the rest, mainly from auto parts. On screen, we have a graph by representation by region. I'm going to show you the 2 main ones. USMCA, which is the most significant one for Randoncorp. It has more relevance with Dacomsa and AXN besides resumption of Hercules, even though the exportation of parts from Brazil have been pressured by the decreasing of rate of the automotive market in North America and the increasing tariffs. In Mercosur and Chile, we had an advancement of sales in semitrailers given the higher investment in the countries that comprise the region. However, our revenue coming from Argentinian aftermarket has been pressured in the country before the reopening of the economy. Now the EBITDA -- adjusted EBITDA that presented reduction in the comparison, I highlight the impacts of the strong deceleration of our main markets in Brazil, the change in our product mix sold, it impacted especially the industrial verticals and the sales to the exterior also because of the depreciation of real facing dollar, but also the movement happening in the United States. You can also see on screen what accounts have been more impacted in this period and which contributed to the reduction of the indicator. The greatest pressure comes from CPV, as I mentioned earlier. For SG&A, I highlight that the comparison is affected mainly for the addition of the companies that have been acquired, they, together, they sum up for BRL 105 million in the indicator. But it is important to highlight our efforts and restructuring efforts. This, considering the new businesses, we had a reduction of 18% of the administrative expenses. On the fourth trimester of 2025, you can see the reduction in comparison to the same period in the last year. This decrease is because of our initiatives to reduce the leverage and preservation of our cash. Now we highlight, there's more relevant -- the modernization projects and the continuity of the investments in the plant for Suspensys and Mogi Guaçu, and the new distribution center for auto parts in the same place and the industrialization of AXN and the internationalization of some production processes, some movement that has been predicted since its acquisition, but it has been anticipated given some important changes in the important processes from the United States. Now before wrapping up my participation, I invite you to participate in the Extel research. It's an important tool for feedback in the capital market for us. You can participate by accessing the QR code on screen. And the deadline for participation in March 27. Now I give the microphone back to Carol, so we can get started with our Q&A session.
Caroline Colleto
ExecutivesHello, everyone. Good morning once again. We're going to get started with a Q&A session. The guidance for participation are on screen. Our first question for today is coming from the analyst side, Gabriel Tinem from Santander.
Gabriel Tinem
AnalystsMy first question is about trailers, if you can help giving me more detail in terms of the market and also the indication of potential new requests. You mentioned the destocking and also the wallet that you mentioned in third -- 3 months of implementing the agribusiness and also share the vision of how has been the Hercules operation, that would be great. Second question here in auto parts. It caught my attention, the margin. I think it's natural to have a decrease, considering the trailers and the trucks, but it has been impacting -- relevant impact in AXN. So how your operation has evolved as a whole? A little bit more of the strategy also, how's the composition between these 3 elements, talking about trailers, production of trucks and AXN. So that's it for me.
Davi Bacichette
ExecutivesThank you. I'm going to address it with Esteban. It's very wide. So we can split this into domestic topics and the U.S. because we have Hercules and AXN, and also in the domestic side, we have trailers. It has been a tough year for this market, especially in the end of the year in trucks. We had a great reduction, something that we haven't seen in quite some time. So we were able to comment a little on how the volumes has been. And what we see for our operations in 2026, to Esteban, feel free to talk.
Esteban Angeletti
ExecutivesThank you, Davi. Thank you, Gabriel, for your questions, for participating in our video conference. So now separating markets and geographies. Starting with semitrailers. I think it's worth, just to give you the context, the area of volumes when we compare year-by-year in '25, we had a reduction of 20% -- 21% in the licensing of semitrailers and in agribusiness, we had a decrease of more than 30% in a segment that we have more exposure. So this reflects a little the margins for semitrailers, of course, that we were not just waiting for something that happen every year. We worked a lot in adjusting the structure and it reflects partially in our results. Initially, we had the penalty of doing these adjustments, but then we prepared the company for a higher plateau of operation along the year. When we look into 2026, we see, yes, signs of resumption including from agribusiness, but still in a lower plateau, very much lower than the median -- the average history. We've been doing review in terms of volume, it predicts the market including the composition of the mix. On the other Gabriel, looking into the OEM operation as a whole, we have not only the structure adjustment that I mentioned, but also the good news that we shared our recent -- a significant request for railcars is going to add up almost BRL 170 million for the revenue in May 2026 and November 2027. It helps a lot in the fixed cost. We always say that railcars are a serial product that usually has a better margin than semitrailers. Now looking into Hercules, this scenario is quite challenging in the United States. It was the worst market in 2025 in the past 20 years. And this is connected to the macroeconomic context of the country itself. On the other side, sometimes investors ask us if we should have taken a different decision, knowing that we would face a challenging market as we did in the past few years. And the answer is, yes, it's the correct direction. We are very confident in this strategy. And the North American market is 4x to 6x bigger than the Brazilian one. And yes, we're going through a rough moment. But at some moment, it's going to revert into a more demand -- a greater demand. Some data now. Last year, we made Hercules more efficient. So now we have a production in operation that is running in a more efficient plateau in comparison to when we bought it. Some signs that are helped to this -- it had been requested in the South Carolina port, and we delivered last year. And that request had a prediction of increasing the volumes that we were able to acquire now in the beginning of the year. We are still finishing up the details of volume and pricing. But the idea is that we are able to start delivering these units in the second quarter of this year, and it's going to be a great part of production by Hercules. We're still struggling and battling for the request, but the market is being tough. One more data that is important in terms of Hercules operations are, let's say, the market as a whole in the United States. Traditionally, within 5 to 7 years of strong market and then you have the low-level markets, the last 2 or 3 years, and 2026 is going to be the third year of low level markets. So we believe that in 2027, we're going to have a more consistent resumption of the market. Now changing the focus to auto parts. We saw the fourth trimester with a very low volume in comparison to the fourth quarter usual numbers. We have the seasonal low numbers in the end of the year. But specifically in 2025, we saw some truck markets and the production of trucks with a decrease of 30% specifically, the heavy duty trucks in which we have more -- higher concentration in our auto parts. So we had a decrease of 45%. And this compresses the margin because of a greater dilution of fixed cost. And once again, we've worked in the adjustments of the structure -- so we could reduce this -- the fixed cost plateau. Another good news, we finished the ramp-up in Suspensys Mogi Guaçu. So we are able now to deliver all the volumes negotiated with Mercedes. So now we can see the market resumption. And now talking about AXN in the United States, the operation is -- has also suffered from the same dynamics in the market, such as Hercules. It's connected to the Hercules businesses and commercial vehicles. We also did, as an initiative to increase our competitiveness in the region was to increase the level of manufacturing of local components. AXN used to import and resell. It was doing some sort of the comp, adding to manufacturing. And now we increased this index of local fabrication. With that, we make the operation more competitive for when we resume the market, we have a greater share in the market. In terms of margins of both operations, OEM and auto parts, we are seeing, yes, step-by-step recovery. We don't have the restructure costs that are so significant as in 2025, but we know we are -- we know that 2026 is going to be challenging as well in terms of volumes. So we continue doing our diligent work with squad searching for efficiency also in the revenue and the cost themselves. I hope that I could answer your question, Gabriel.
Operator
OperatorSo now let's move on to the next question. It comes from Kiepher Kennedy, who is an analyst sell-side, Citibank.
Kiepher Kennedy
AnalystsJust one observation in the auto parts. So this 5% margin is clear, the motivations of the quarter. It has been, okay, below the average. But why 5% specifically for this profitability level? Is it related to the seasonal period that was worse at the end of the year? Or if this margin, even though it is recurring in this period, in this trimester, do you expect something better for 2026? Or you expect the same given that the market is still struggling? So I'm wondering. And the second aspect here for the guidance of the company for 2026, I think it's a little lower than what the market expected given the census that we had. Global OEMs, they released the results already coming with positive comments saying that in this heavy-duty vehicles market in 2026, they envision some improvement. But I understand that this optimism is not so reflected in the expectations of the company here, at least that's what we see. So I would like to have a little of this explanation of this detail on this guidance. What is embedded in terms of expectancy as an improvement in the heavy-duty vehicle area or if the company is being more conservative in the beginning of the year? What kind of message can we get from this for the year 2026, we are still in March, right? So we have 9 months ahead. So you have -- you are being conservative in your message. So those are my 2 questions.
Davi Bacichette
ExecutivesThank you, Kiepher, for your question. First question related to the margin in auto parts, Esteban will be able to follow up. There are some arguments for the previous answer. And then, Paulo, I'm going to give the word to you, so you can talk a little bit of guidance. The first 3 months of the year, they render some information and news for our full year, but we still have 9 months ahead. So I'll give you the microphone, so you can make comments on what's behind our analysis and the calculation and studies that we did to reach this guidance, and so we can give more information to Kiepher.
Esteban Angeletti
ExecutivesThank you, Davi. Thank you, Kiepher, for the question. Well, the dynamics of the fourth quarter of -- in auto parts, it presented what we call a double hit, which is a double impact, given the effect that the OEMs also worked on the reduction of their stocks, and it is clear when we compare the rhythm of production and the rhythm of licensing. That's the main reason for the margin in auto parts has compressed that much. That matched again with the adjustments in restructure. In 2026, we are working so that this margin, EBITDA, it will be double digit again. Traditionally, the historical margin for auto parts, it is between 14% to 16%. We need to be transparent here. It is hard to get back to this plateau in a scenario that we see instability of volumes. That's the premise that we are working on here. And it involves a part of the answer for guidance already. We don't see enough volume for expansion of the revenues. And the second reason here is the Selic rate plateau. It gets a little from the volume of the commercial vehicles for trailers and for semitrailers, as well for trucks and semitrailers. And agribusiness, yes, we have the expectation of the huge harvest reduction -- a huge reduction on harvest. So the segment has been impacted by the cost of the inputs. So it removes the decision or delays the decision of investments. That being said, this recovery of the auto parts margin given all -- it happens because all of that has been done internally connected to the expectation of the increasing, better volumes on the year. And the January has been tough in terms of sales, to be very transparent with you. The volumes were still low. We have the seasonal thing in the first quarter as well because we have vacation period carrying -- so we have slower sales, but we are seeing already signs of improvement during February and March. Paulo, I'll give you the microphone, so you can comment the guidance.
Paulo Prignolato
ExecutivesThank you, Esteban. Kiepher, thank you for participating in our conference and thank you for your question. Well, we have debated a lot before sharing this guidance, okay? And in our vision, the projections, they are realistic. In other words, there is no optimism or pessimism, nothing. There's no bias in this projection. So it reflects what we truly consider to be more adequate in terms of scenario. The projection of macroeconomic scenario and the market itself. Always remember in the guidance, it has been published. And along the year, if we identify that the positions are not reflecting any more. While we consider to be adequate, nothing is preventing us for, of course, to update this guidance with updated information.
Caroline Colleto
ExecutivesSo now we're going to move on to our next question, which is coming from Andressa Varotto, sell-side analyst from UBS.
Andressa Varotto
AnalystsTwo subjects here. First, -- and in capital, we have seen better improvements in this quarter, especially in accounts received and stocks. And if you can give more detail on the initiatives. And also try to clarify when this reduction -- how much of this reduction is related to the small volumes of the quarter? And how much -- can you revert it as we have this recovery, the seasonal recovery? Also doing a follow-up in the guidance and margin question. When we see the range -- the low part of the range, we see a scenario that is pretty much without any expansion, even though we have been having all the restructuring efforts along 2025. So what are the risks that you see for us not having an expansion of margin, even though the company is already in a new dimension in terms of volume?
Davi Bacichette
ExecutivesThank you, Andressa, for your question. For these 2 topics, I'm going to give the word to Paulo. We have mentioned along the year that this has been one of the greatest goals of the company for us to reduce the NCG and reduce our leverage. I think we were successful in that. He's going to give you more detail in what we produce. And then, Paulo, if you could also complement the question for guidance about the working capital requirement. We're going to discuss that, okay?
Paulo Prignolato
ExecutivesAndressa, thank you very much for your participation, for your question. So for the working capital. In fact, we had a significant effort. We have initiatives going on, the generated results from all of our business verticals and stocks, account receivable and for suppliers as well. While we are searching, it's exactly a reduction in maintenance structural in the working capital. So for 2026, considering the projections that we are seeing in the guidance, we expect an investment of working capital that is neutral along the year, of course, that we may have oscillations along the quarters. But when we analyze year-by-year, we foresee little variation in working capital. Why do I say that? Because along last year, especially in the first quarter of the year, we were still adequate in our operations to these plateaus of the market and in terms of volume. And when we wrapped up these adequations and then we truly saw a significant reduction in the working capital. So for the clients as well, especially in the railcars, those are important contracts. They have good payment upfront, and that helps us in this working capital cycle and for suppliers as well, not only in Brazil, but in foreign countries as well. We were able to capture synergies from the acquired companies which mentioned -- which represented a significant improvement in the working capital. So to sum it up, most of them reflect structural improvements that now we have the challenge ahead of maintaining them along the year in resumption of the market also being able to keep this under control, especially in this moment with this research high interest such as where -- the moment we are living today. Now about your second question, guidance. I confirm what has been said in the previous answer. It reflects our best projections at this moment. This year starts with high volatility. We have been seeing new conflicts popping up, and they may impact some regions in some markets, the high fuel prices and this, as a consequence, elevates the price of freight, shipping. And because of that, I mentioned that's the best information that we have now. And this is a value range. And again, if the conditions stabilize for better or for worse conditions, we will certainly update you in relation to that.
Caroline Colleto
ExecutivesNow we're going to move on to the next question, it's coming from Gabriel Rezende, sell-side analyst from Itau BBA.
Gabriel Rezende
AnalystsTwo things. Well, you mentioned already, but perhaps to get more detail about it. Now moving from the fourth quarter and with this low level that we're seeing in the production of trucks in Brazil, and therefore, low production of auto parts for you guys. I would like to understand from you guys the levels of stock in the heavy-duty sector in Brazil. We see some optimism with the new subsidies coming from [indiscernible] to resume some volumes and including the low volume in January. Maybe that's the -- companies are waiting for their credit lines to be okay for the companies to purchase. Now I would like to understand from you in the beginning of the year in terms of stock and the resumption being a little more stronger in February and March. And now also, based on the commentary that you just did, Paulo, about your guidance and the conflict, the geopolitical conflicts impacting the macroeconomics in Brazil. It doesn't make sense to think that if we have an inflation that is more accelerated in terms of fuel, so the highway shipping, we may see some increasing. So is there any new wins that we are not seeing in this analysis?
Davi Bacichette
ExecutivesThank you, Gabriel, for your questions. I think they are very correlated here. I would ask Esteban to address them to talk both about the levels of stock in the industry and also the programs that we have here, which is Move Brazil. And as you mentioned, the effects, the inflation of fuels and some other things that we know that with war, it can extend and it may happen, it could affect our markets here. Esteban, please?
Esteban Angeletti
ExecutivesThank you, Davi and Gabriel, for the question. So for the volumes of stock, we have seen something similar happened in 2017, 2018 when the market was leaving from 3 years of crisis, basically 2014, '15, '16. Those were years with considerable low numbers with 30% decrease. In the 3 years, almost 70% decrease in some lines. And of course, as we saw in 2025 in the first moment, there's this double impact because of the reduction of sales and reduction of stocks. Our clients traditionally, they were loading like 60 days of stock and they reduced to less than 30 days of stock. And this has an impact even greater in the suppliers, the Tier 1, 2 and 3. In terms of their resumption, it is still too early to say that the Move program has potentialized enough sales for our clients to make the decision of increasing the stocks. We haven't seen that yet, both on the client and our production of -- programming our production, and I think that the program can be, yes, one of the factors to improve the demand. But in a structural way, we really need to see a reduction in the Selic rate, reduction in inflation so we can see improvement in the macroeconomics as a whole. And this is connected to your second question related to the potential impact in the increasing prices of sales is going to impact the shipping. So we see that in a way that is still concerning because in the first moment, increasing the cost will not affect the price of shipping, we need to see if the logistic operator is going to reflect that on his pricing. And if it is reflected on pricing, yes, we have an impact on the overall inflation, and this can trigger a delay in the reduction of the interest rate. So it is still too early for us really to determine if it is positive or negative this impact from the cost of fuel on shipping. We will see -- we saw a little improvement in the shipping costs in the late 2025, and that could trigger a little better volumes, but it's too early to inform if this is going to be structural numbers.
Operator
OperatorOn to the next question for today coming from Luiza Mussi, sell-side analyst from Banco Safra.
Luiza Mussi Tanus e Bastos
AnalystsI'd like to understand, we're talking about a demand that is more flat along the year. So if you're going to breakdown into which parts we're going to have better performance and which ones we're going to have more pressure, we understand the demand for trucks and the tankers, they are quite under pressure now. And also the second thing here is if you could explain a little better how it's been the behavior of the competitors in terms of pricing, given this demand that is a little lower in the beginning of the year. Is there more pressure or more rationality? So those are the 2 things that I'd like to understand better.
Davi Bacichette
ExecutivesThank you, Luiza, for your question. I'm going to let Esteban answer that because our markets are connected, right, trucks and semitrailers. So he'll be able to mentioned the families and the mix eventually and also the competition while we're looking into the market in terms of competition. Now please, Esteban.
Esteban Angeletti
ExecutivesThank you, Luiza, for following up our video conference and for your question. In terms of the mix of products, we have been seeing a slight increasing -- a slight improvement in agribusiness, the trucks they use this in a slight decrease in the industrialized products. It is not enough to move the indicator for sustainability. Considering the history, our OEM had a participation of -- implement revenue of up to 70%. That was our peak around 3 years ago. And today, it is representing less than 35%, not even half of what it used to be 3 years ago. Those were the moments in which we had a better profitability. Of course, during this period, we are still -- we are also working in specification of the product. So we make the aggregated value in which the client pays for it and remove costs where the client doesn't see value. So with that, we expect to see better margins. But as we say, since last year, this is not an initiative that we can convert in data in our DRE within 1 year. We need some time to take this to the market and for it to reflect on our margins. Anyways, we are still having a product that is extremely good in terms of quality in agribusiness, the 2 types of trucks that they use. And it has been much better in our products for our industrial type of, for example, the big vans. So now we have a more competitive price in the end of last year, in which we had lower volumes in the fourth quarter. And then yes, we had pressure to -- for pricing. In the beginning of the year, it has been more rational, more stable, more reasonable. We do have some limitation for pricing. Yes, but we haven't seen it getting worse in relation to last year.
Caroline Colleto
ExecutivesNow on to the next question coming from Gabriel Frazao, sell-side analyst from Bank of America.
Gabriel Frazao
AnalystsThank you for your space here. A question, if you could explain a little better the provisioning for this quarter, especially in the delayed of values in the contract or if you have the provision of the future expectations for the revenue that this contract should bring? And also, if you could share if you expect to resume the assets from the client, and if it happens, if you have the demand for it in the used vehicle market or if you want to move it on to another client?
Davi Bacichette
ExecutivesThank you, Gabriel, for your question. About this topic -- I'm going to ask Paulo to address your question. And for the values and for the assets as well, Paulo, for you so you can reply to Gabriel.
Paulo Prignolato
ExecutivesGabriel, thank you for your question. In reality, we wrapped up the year we had a provision based on the best information that we have at this moment, right? In other words, so this is a provision and it may vary in many senses, given that it's in [ RJ, ] we don't have the freedom to give details to this number at this moment. So as soon as this legal agreement evolves with the other party. And then, yes, we will have full conditions of giving details to the market about all of these effects.
Caroline Colleto
ExecutivesAnd now we're going to move on to our last question for today coming from Marcelo Motta, sell-side analyst from JPMorgan.
Marcelo Motta
AnalystsTwo quick questions. First, when we look at the guidance in CapEx, we understand how much flexibility you have and what would be maybe the lowest CapEx possible along the year. I suppose that the low end of guidance. But I would like to understand what is the upside in risk? And the follow-up, when we see the exchange, you talk about [ 5 and 60, ] if it's correct to understand that if we look into more a spotted exchange, not so much volatility given what's going on in the geopolitical scenario. But there's a little bit of downside risk, and I would understand how much -- if there's a downside risk for the margin as well, if the ranges that we see with a little different exchange, if it could impact those numbers?
Davi Bacichette
ExecutivesThank you, Motta, for your question. Once again, Paulo, for our guidance, I would like to address -- send it to you for you to explore a little bit more on the CapEx part and also the exchange, which is connected to our international revenues, please?
Paulo Prignolato
ExecutivesMotta, thank you for your question. Well, for CapEx, I think you mentioned exactly the most important point of this discussion. We are living a moment with a lot of uncertain things. Our focus continues to be continue to reduce our leverage. And for this reason, we work very careful, way more careful than we used to be in the past. So we continue to move on in this journey with financial discipline in terms of costs, expenses, working capital and CapEx with the desire to reach in the December of 2026 with a leverage between 2x or 2.5x EBITDA. So we are really doing what is the minimum necessary for maintaining our operations. So in terms of exchange, we usually make our projections based on the best information in the market, especially from the analysts and the banks. And you're right. The volatility will continue. However, when we analyze the results from Randoncorp, especially EBITDA in the last line, the exchange variation is quite neutral. When we look into the motion picture in full extension, not a standing picture. So we do have revenues in dollar, but we also have purchases of projects and raw materials that are based on dollars. So we have a balance. But the oscillation of the exchange rate for lower, yes, it may impact our revenue. Also, as if real lose more value than the predicted one, it can oscillate above. So in some sort of way, this is already predicted in this range that we are sharing here.
Caroline Colleto
ExecutivesPerfect. And with this, we wrap up our Q&A session. Thank you very much, everyone, who participated. And now I'll give the microphone for our President and CEO, Daniel Randon, for our final message.
Daniel Randon
ExecutivesWell, I would like to say thank you for the presence of everyone here, our investors, analysts, people who are with us in this teleconference. And also give the recognition in the effort and dedication of our employees that are committed to the execution of our strategy here in Randoncorp. We are always at your disposal for clarifying anything else by our relation areas with the investors, and we are always counting on your confidence for continuing our journey. Thank you very much. Wish you guys a great weekend. Goodbye, everyone. Thank you very much. Bye. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
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