Randstad N.V. (RAND) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
April 23, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorHello, and welcome to the Randstad First Quarter Results 2025 Call. My name is Adip, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand you over to your host, Sander van't Noordende, CEO, to begin today's conference. Please go ahead, sir.
Alexander van't Noordende
executiveThank you very much, Adip, for that kind introduction, and good morning, everybody. I'm here with Jorge and our Investor Relations team to share our Q1 2025 results. We've made a solid start to the year. Our strategic moves, increased commercial activities, continued focus on cost and operational agility are paying off. As a result, we were able to protect our bottom line with an EBITA of EUR 167 million and an EBITA margin of 3% for the quarter. While we did see some encouraging signs across some key markets, trading conditions remain challenged in many markets, resulting in a 4.2% revenue decline. We were pleased to see continued growth in Spain, Italy and Japan, where our investments in growth segments such as digital and skilled trade are showing results. We see further stabilization in North America, while in Northern European countries in France, business conditions remain challenging, especially in perm and the broader automotive sector. From an industry point of view, we saw growth in logistics and financial services and automotive is obviously the most challenged one these days. If we look at -- to Q2, I would say, first of all, activity trends in April were in line with Q1. However, it's clear that macroeconomic uncertainty has gone up, which is limiting visibility. Geopolitical factors, including the evolving landscape of international tariffs are contributing to an uncertain environment for both clients and talent. And therefore, it's too early to say with any certainty what impact this will have on our markets and on our future performance. Nevertheless, we do what we always do. We stay close to our clients and execute our field steering principles to adapt to the evolving client and talent demand so that we are protecting profitability whilst maintaining our disciplined approach to investing in our growth segments. Finally, tomorrow, we're hosting a Capital Markets event to update you on the progress against our partner for talent strategy. And we will share how we deliver specialization and experience at scale through the Randstad talent platform as we become a digital-first company. So in summary, a solid start in a challenging environment. We're navigating the uncertainty with operational rigor and agility. See you all in London or online tomorrow for our partner for talent update. Jorge, over to you.
Jorge Vazquez
executiveThank you, Sander, and good morning, everyone. Just in February, literally 2 months ago, during our Q4 publication, we noted stabilization, and we discussed the actions taken to position us stronger for the start of the year. Reflecting on Q1, the year continued no differently than we flagged in February with signs of stabilization in some of our markets, as the decline rates continue to moderate through the quarter. Our actions did prove important for the start of the year. But of course, we are mindful of the current uncertain environment, recurring us to always ensure preparedness. And like Sander just highlighted, managing on actuals. We continue to steer daily and weekly and adapt our actions where necessary. Looking at our performance. Overall, organic revenue declined by 4.2% year-over-year, an improvement versus the decline seen in Q4 2024. Importantly, at consolidated level, our gross profit and OpEx were aligned, allowing us to protect relative profitability despite the lower top line. Now let's dive into the regional performance, starting on Page 7 and starting with North America. In North America, we saw continued sequential improvement this quarter. In the U.S., in particular, our operational business was down minus 2 for the quarter, but it returned to growth in March, continuing to outperform the market in its part. We continue to see the benefits of our transformation, and we look forward to sharing more like Sander just alluded with you tomorrow. Encouragingly though, digital also turned the corner, returning to growth within the quarter 1 of this year. We do see businesses though still like taking a much more cautious approach when it comes to the Professional Solutions and permanent hiring still remains subdued, declining 19% and minus 15%, respectively. In this low hiring environment, though, our RiseSmart business did well, growing double digit again this quarter. If we look north in Canada, we saw decline rates easing compared to previous quarters, and we continue to focus on efficiency and market alignment. The EBITDA margin for North America came in at 3.2% this quarter, up 90 basis points year-over-year, showcasing adaptability and transformation progress. Moving on to Europe and especially Northern Europe, starting on Slide 8. Northern Europe remains challenging. The only region where growth or rate of decline did not improve. Here, the uncertainty surrounding the automotive sector continues to weigh in, in particular. In the Netherlands, growth say in question improved from minus 7% -- or from minus 10% to minus 7% in Q1, but the environment remains volatile. Operational was minus 6% for the quarter, improving versus last quarter, as we converted new clients into revenue. Professionally -- or professional, excuse me, organically, excluding Zorgwerk, slowed to minus 14%. And here, we see a combination of a broader slowing market and the impact of the freelance legislation coming into effect and to be still fully embedded in Q2 onwards. On the other hand, we are actively reshaping our portfolio focus on specialization and growth segment and in particular, in health care, with Zorgwerk acquisition, building the leaders already in the Netherlands. Our profitability improved year-over-year, reflecting mostly the acquisition of Zorgwerk. If we look at Germany, the economic environment has continued to be difficult and remain unchanged, and our growth rate notched down a bit sequentially to minus 10%. Here, the automotive sector continues to be under pressure, and we continue to see elevated idle time costs. In Belgium, we'll leverage the strength of a well-diversified portfolio. We saw a sequential slowdown of our operational business, minus 1%, facing primarily tougher comparables. Professionals, on the other hand, has improved sequentially, and one of our main examples where investments in specialization start to pay off. EBITDA margin was a sound 4.6%. If we then look at the other Northern European countries, let me just break it down. Switzerland is a plus 6% and Poland at plus 4%, but the Nordics still remains very challenging. EBITA margin came in at 1.4%, and we will continue to work to improve it quarter after quarter. Moving on now to the segment, Southern Europe, U.K. and LatAm on Slide 9. And here, let's start with France, where we saw a slow start of the year, with decline rates is moderating throughout the quarter. OTS, our operational business growth was down 6% ahead of the market, but automotive is weighing its impact. Our transport logistics and manufacturing continue to improve sequentially, though. Professional was down minus 16%, sequentially stable, and digital is also in decline given its exposure, in particular to the broader automotive sector. Idle time and bench here, especially on the digital business, weigh on the gross margin. The EBITA margin was 3.7%. And as you can see, and we talk about more in -- later in our one-offs, we are taking action to improve it already this quarter. Italy saw solid growth, and we see momentum continuing. Operation was up 6% this quarter, and we continue to ramp up investments in growth segments such as IT, health care and skilled trade units. Despite investments, Italy still shows a very good profitability level at 5.8%. If we look south Iberia, Iberia stabilized at a high level, growing 4% this quarter, and Spain showing robust growth with a 6% increase year-over-year, mainly driven by strong performance in its operational and enterprise business, supporting clients increased demand. Again, here, we remain investing in growth segments with many opportunities to continue to capture growth. If we then look at all the other countries in the region, revenue and profit performance were mixed. U.K. labor market continued to soften and we were down 14%. But in Latin America, Brazil is profitably growing at 6%, offset partially the weakness of Argentina, which leads us to the last region moving on to Asia Pacific on Slide 10. The Asia Pacific region continues to recover. Japan demonstrated solid growth, combined with strong profitability, a good example of the impact of leaning in on specialization. We continue to see our investments from the last quarters paying off and our digital specialization is now growing at 16% and consistently breaking our upwards quarter-after-quarter. Here, we are ideally positioned to support clients and talent in a clear candidate scarce market. Australia and New Zealand improved sequentially, declining now 7% in the quarter, slightly better than Q4 2024. India grew 8%, starting the year well and setting us up for the rest of the year. Overall, the EBITA margin for APAC for the region was at 4.3% in the first quarter, showing strong operational discipline, while most important, continuing to invest for further growth. And that concludes the performance of our key geographies. So let us now walk you through the group financial performance on Slide 12. But first, let's look at it from a specialization point of view, on the right-hand side of the slide. So operationally, typically being early cyclical continues to progress despite automotive weakness at minus 3% revenue growth. Last quarter was minus 4%, with diverging trends depending on where each market is. Professionals declined 9%, and we saw sequential improvement in digital and enterprise to minus 5% and minus 4%, respectively. Just to remind you, OTS or our operational business makes up approximately 50% of our gross profit while the other 3 specializations make up the other 50% already. Now we'll cover gross margin and OpEx later, but the important thing here is that they have aligned as we enter 2025. For the quarter underlying EBITA was EUR 167 million, with a margin of 3% similar profitability level margin as last year, while still seeing top line declines showcasing strategic choices made and disciplined execution, as Sander mentioned. But now let me unpack some of the other items including net income. Integration and one-offs were EUR 18 million this quarter, and although not as elevated as in 2024, we continue to rightsize and future fit our organization and take action, primarily in Northern Europe and France. In the amortization and impairment of intangible assets, nothing really relevant this quarter, regular treatment of the acquisition of Zorgwerk and the net finance costs in Q1 were EUR 19 million, in line with higher net debt position. The effective tax rate was 29%, impacted by the low taxable income following change in profit mix and lower earnings. For 2025, please note, we do raise our guidance slightly to 28% to 30% including the expected impact of changes in tax -- corporate income tax in France. Adjusted net income was EUR 103 million. And with that, let's turn the page and look at our gross margin bridge on Slide 13. So going into more detail into gross margin. Our gross margin came in 90 basis points below last year, driven like in past quarters by business and service mix. It was slightly ahead of our expectations, impacted by better-than-anticipated RPO and perm. Year-on-year, temp margin is still impacting 50 basis points, reflecting underlying mix and idle time as just discussed before. Perm was still subdued, benefited from an additional money this quarter or this month in the large perm month of March. Compared to last year, perm had a negative impact of 20 basis points on the overall gross margin, as you can see in the chart above. HRS was also impacted by the divestment of Monster, partially offset by the growth in RPO, that Sander mentioned earlier. Overall, HRS still has a negative impact of 20 basis points, which now brings me to the OpEx details on Slide 14, and remember, this one is sequential, not year-over-year. Our underlying operating expenses came in at EUR 925 million, a decrease of EUR 18 million sequentially. And as mentioned in the previous calls, we've made significant efforts last year to structurally address our cost base, both by becoming more efficient in delivery and in particular, from my perspective, by addressing the indirect costs that represent approximately 35% of our cost base. This results today in an organic decrease of 6% year-over-year, EUR 59 million lower than last year, directly aligning with a 6% organic decline we saw in gross profit. Please note, these results of OpEx are net of protecting our strategic investments and our strategic agendas, and we'll discuss more tomorrow, the investment in our strategic agenda, which will allow us to position the business for more profitable growth and to improve its cost structure. This resulted overall in a recovery ratio of 68% for the quarter, clearly in line with our steering principles. And with that in mind, let's move on to Slide 15, which contains our cash flow and balance sheet remarks. Our free cash flow for the quarter was a positive EUR 59 million, reflecting working capital management and partially a refund of prepaid tax. DSO was 55 days, up 0.4 days, sequentially, and the client mix continues to put some upward pressure in line with the normal cyclical pattern, which we do expect to normalize as recovery continues. Overdues, please note, and write-offs remain at historical lows. Our leverage ratio remains unchanged, therefore, at 1.6x, and we have paid our dividend at the beginning of April. And now to the slide on the outlook on Slide 16. As a start, Q2 2025 is an extraordinary light seasonal quarter, especially in Europe, in terms of working days and holidays such as Easter and for example, the Dutch Liberation Day holiday. We will have approximately 0.5 working days less and in particular in Northern Europe, 2 days in the quarter, both year-on-year and sequentially. What do we see in terms of business momentum, let me start with April. The early signs, and Sander alluded to this, the early signs we see into Q2 show a similar exit rate in line with March. We are cautious, but despite all the macro volatility with associated limited visibility, we have helped to see the impact on volumes and activity. As Sander said, we stay close to our clients, but at the same time, we are prepared for different scenarios to ensure agility and reaction. As always, we draw on our field steering principles and disciplined execution. Moving on, Q2 2025 gross margin is expected to be modestly down sequentially, mostly reflecting the seasonal impact and mix. Operating expenses are expected to be broadly stable. So to summarize, let me wrap up Q1 and how we enter into Q2. We prepared in 2024 to enter stronger for 2025. We saw the start of the year gradually progressing through the quarter with signs of stabilization in some markets. We start seeing the impact of our strategy, positioning the business for profitable growth and to improve its cost structure. And in light of recent uncertainty, we remain even more alert, focused on field steering and doubling down on scenario planning. And with that, we conclude our prepared remarks, and we welcome any questions from the line.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]. We will take our first questions from Remi Grenu from Morgan Stanley.
Remi Grenu
analystIf I may, can we start on tough questions or discussion around the tariff situation. So just interested in hearing what you have to say on your discussions with your clients currently, you expect that this could have a negative impact on volumes in any part of your business? Actually, one of your competitors calling it a wait-and-see mode. And baking into their Q2 guidance, some weakness in permanent recruitment and RPO because of that situation. So just wondering if you are seeing the same situation and if you've made the same assumption regarding Q2, especially on the gross margin side? And within that same discussion, if you can compare that to the discussion you had with clients back in 2018 when we had the impact of the tariff from the first Trump administration and whether this back then resulted in an impact on your business in any specific end markets?
Alexander van't Noordende
executiveThank you, Remi, for that question. I mean, let me first say chart is a little bit broader. Yes, there is the tariffs, and we'll talk about that. But I would just also emphasize that the broader economic and geopolitical environment is very dynamic and creates -- there's a lot of moving parts and that creates uncertainty. So it's not just tariffs that we're talking about. If we look at tariffs, it's -- Remi, you have to look at it at 3 levels. First, of course, there is the clients that are directly impacted by tariffs. And there you think about automotive and the broader manufacturing industry. If we have seen one place where we have seen some impact, it's automotive, and you have seen the news reports of some of the automotive companies, specifically here in Europe of stopping experts or reducing production volumes. So we have seen some impact there. Broader than that, we have seen very limited impact, I would say. And you do have to keep in mind that in this manufacturing industry, everything ultimately will depend on what the level of the tariff is in that country, what company, what are the supply chains of that company. So this is a very granular situation. And at this point in time, it's very hard to say what the exact impact on all those individual clients will be. Then there's, of course, the 90-day period. Will there be -- there are negotiations. Will there be outcomes of negotiation? What will the outcome be? So too early to say what the exact impact will be on those particular clients. The second level that you need to see this at is obviously the broader business confidence. And there is the tariffs and the broader environment, as I already alluded to. And obviously, that environment is not very helpful for creating certainty in our clients' minds in terms of policy direction and economic environment. So clients are indeed, I would say, on the fence in terms of making their bigger decisions, whether it's investment decisions in physical assets, in technology assets or in people assets, and that comes to us and that's hiring. So the overall uncertainty doesn't help that, so clients are on the fence. You have to also keep in mind, by the way, that the hiring levels that we are speaking of these days are already at a relatively low level. So some of the hiring levels in some parts of the industry are back at the level of 2015, 2016. So we're already operating on a relatively low level of hiring. So that's something to keep in the back of your mind. The third level, obviously, that you that might be impacted is consumer confidence and what does that mean to the overall economy. And I would say that is, let's say, business as usual for us at Randstad because that's where we -- and that's how we do business here. So the bigger question maybe is also what do we do as Randstad? And of course, we focus there where we see growth opportunities. We have identified our growth segments in logistics, in skilled trade, in Randstad operational, in health care, in finance, in engineering, in Randstad Professional, in Randstad Digital, all the hot skills for AI for user experience, consumer experience, et cetera. Our RPO business is tracking nicely these days because we have attracted quite a few new clients. And as Jorge said, our outplacement business is also doing well. So the name of the game is focus on the growth areas, stay close to the clients to make sure we are there with them to see what's happening in the market and to define strategies for them to respond when it comes to their labor force. Because, obviously, there is a downward risk to all of this, but sometimes these situations also create opportunities where clients say, well, I may not be ready to hire, let's say, on a more permanent basis, but I'm ready to hire on a temporary basis. So that's sort of the name of the game around tariffs. And again, I would say, the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.
Jorge Vazquez
executiveYou had a question on margin, Remi. So I think Sander alluded to it and then in 2018. I mean, I think in 2018 the starting point is very different. I mean at the beginning or in 2018, we came from a 10-year growth spur that then indeed came to a pause. If you look at, Sander just alluded to it, the hiring levels today are very different from the hiring levels of 2018. The penetration rate today is actually much lower than the penetration rate of 2018. So it's a very different starting point. But then on the margin, I think you asked, okay, how do you see and is that factored into your expectations? I think what we're now guiding for in terms of margin on one hand is reflecting exactly what we see. So a little bit of the reversal. So we were, let's say, surprised somehow with better than expected, the perm and RPO in Q1. It's a light quarter when it comes to the traditional temporary business. So that gave a bit of an uplift in Q1. As we now enter in Q2, we factor in a little bit of reverse of that. Also the 2 days or, let's say, the less working days in Q2, but increasingly as well, the weakness we see in automotive. So this combination brings us to a lower gross margin in Q2 than in Q1, exactly what we see today.
Operator
operatorOur next question, we are taking from Suhasini Varanasi from Goldman Sachs.
Suhasini Varanasi
analystIt looks like if I had to take a look at the growth by month in the quarter, in 1Q, March was probably a little bit better compared to what you talked about in terms of exit rates in January. Can you maybe clarify that and also give some color on what actually changed through the course of 1Q? In terms of verticals or by regions, what improved?
Jorge Vazquez
executiveSuhasini, so let me -- I mean, we normally don't disclose the exact growth rate, but let me just give you a little bit of color to help you there. So indeed, when we last spoke in February, at the end of February, we had given basically the entry level into Q1 around 5.5%, so similar to Q4. As we finished the quarter at a higher -- at a better decline rate, let's say, 4.2%, clearly, we've been progressing throughout the quarter. If we then double-click into that, we see the United States making the bigger steps. We saw a broader operational business already in growth in March. And we also saw, for instance, our digital -- [ Lufthansa ] digital specialization in growth already through the quarter. So we see progressing there and then depends a little bit region by region. But in general, some key markets progressing, enabling us to enter April already with a better rate than the quarter rate in 2025 in Q1.
Suhasini Varanasi
analystIt's very surprising actually that the U.S. is the region that saw the most improvement in light of the tariffs. I suppose that points to what Sander mentioned earlier, the fact is the clients are ready to hire temporarily, but not on a permanent basis? Is that the main reason?
Alexander van't Noordende
executiveNo, I wouldn't say that, Suhasini, I would say it's early innings in all of this. Let's say -- and it's every day, things have gone up and down, the tariffs were there, they were not there, there is a pause. So it's sort of -- it's a -- it's early days. But of course, we have now across our full business, and we'll talk a lot more about that tomorrow, our digital marketplace, which is obviously helping in terms of fulfillment, et cetera. But we'll talk more about that tomorrow.
Operator
operatorWe will take our next question from Andy Grobler from BNP Paribas.
Andrew Grobler
analystCan I just start with depreciation, which came down quite sharply in the quarter, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of revenues? Could you just talk through what drove that decline and what your expectations are for the full year, please?
Jorge Vazquez
executiveAndy, it's Jorge. It's actually quite stable. I think it's just basically the effect of the divestment of Monster. So that is basically the difference. So it will be stable through the year.
Andrew Grobler
analystOkay. Brilliant. And if I could just follow up on RPO, which Sander mentioned earlier, which was strong. What -- to what extent is that you winning clients relative to the broader market? And where are you doing well from a geographic perspective?
Alexander van't Noordende
executiveNo. So, let's say, I would say, in general, our enterprise team is doing a good job on a number of fronts. First of all, in terms of winning new clients, and we have had some great wins in life sciences, which has been a focused industry for us. We've had a good win with Microsoft on the candidate services. So we have had a good -- we talked last couple of quarters about a good pipeline. Some of those wins have definitely come through. Then the other thing is we're embarking clients on our enterprise operating system. So we are improving productivity and fulfillment for those clients as well. And then last, but not least, we're ramping up our presence around delivery in India, which is also helping, of course, in our cost to serve. So all in all, I would say very encouraging progress by our team in enterprise.
Operator
operatorWe will take our next question from Rory McKenzie from UBS.
Rory Mckenzie
analystRory here. On the gross margin outlook, thanks to the explanation on how the strong RPO affected the mix. But can you just talk through how the temp pricing, idle time and mix evolved from Q4 into Q1. And then what you expect for Q2? And then just as a follow-up, while trying to look at the kind of temp volume versus price mix impacts, I saw that you restated a number of temp workers from last year. I think it increased by about 10,000 to 568,000. So what was that change, please?
Jorge Vazquez
executiveI mean, I would say in terms of pricing, it's broadly stable. And if you look in general at our temp margin through the year, you'll see just a more regular seasonal pattern from Q1 into Q2. So I would say there's no significant, let's say, changes between one and the other. And in terms of mix, I don't expect basically a significant change. It's more we're going to have a seasonal uptick from Q1 into Q2. I want to be clear, so it's not only the RPO, we had both an RPO and the perm so it's more the fee business, is typically higher in Q1, and it was slightly ahead of our expectations, and therefore, that basically contributed to a higher better gross margin in Q1.
Rory Mckenzie
analystAnd the restatement to your temp volume number?
Jorge Vazquez
executiveWhich -- I don't know, I don't know what we're talking...
Rory Mckenzie
analystOn Slide 20, you say you restated the number of employees working on the previous. I'll have it take it off-line.
Jorge Vazquez
executiveRory, there has been something already for more than a year. I mean we've been talking about it for a few quarters now, that was basically reharmonizing or realigning to our specialization at the beginning of last year. So there's no restatement in this quarter.
Operator
operatorWe will take our next question from Simon LeChipre from Jefferies.
Simon LeChipre
analystFollowup on your cost strategy. You mentioned top line trends improving during the quarter, notably driven by some key countries showing progressive, but you still cut head count by 2% quarter-to-quarter. And I think the cut in 4Q was just 1%. So could you perhaps give us some context on basically why cutting head count a bit more in Q1 than Q4 despite showing some encouraging signs on top line?
Alexander van't Noordende
executiveIt was very difficult to hear you, Simon. Did I get it right that the question is, how do the headline trends relate to the revenue trends?
Simon LeChipre
analystMy question is basically why did you cut head count by 2% in the quarter despite...
Jorge Vazquez
executiveYes, I understand, Simon, sorry, it was difficult -- the line is breaking up a little bit. Normally, Q1 in our industry is a seasonally low quarter. So as we come from a quite high seasonal quarter in Q4, we try to make sure that we enter the year as aligned as possible from a cost base and gross profit perspective. And therefore, in Q1, we reduced, let's say, field capacity as we get ready for that lower quarter of the year. Going forward, part of it, we always capture in terms of productivity. So we try to make sure we gain productivity as we go throughout the year. The other part, we can always choose to ramp up or ramp down as we see both seasonality and our growth going to the year.
Operator
operatorWe're now taking our next question from Marc Zwartsenburg from ING.
Marc Zwartsenburg
analystTwo left for me. First, on the SG&A guidance, Jorge, can you give me a bit of an indication what kind of effects you have put in there. So is the U.S. dollar already fully reflected in there at [ 115 ] or is there a bit of -- even a bit of upside, let's say, in a positive side that the OpEx even comes down a bit further? That's my first question. A bit linked to the second one, so I continue with that one. Thinking about OpEx maybe a bit later also to Q3, Q4 and operational leverage and margin protection. How are you -- because I heard you talking about the scenarios you're currently working on in case the tariffs put U.S. in a recession and volumes come down, accelerate, et cetera. Would we then see still that you can protect your margin by becoming a bit more aggressive on the SG&A side or how should we look at the margin maybe a bit more throughout the full year?
Jorge Vazquez
executiveYes. So let me start with the second question, Marc, and let me give you a little bit of color. You know we don't give guidance per se, but I think -- I mean, we've made a big effort in making sure we work, let's say, entering the quarter in a stronger position. So we kind of at least protect profitability. We -- as you saw, we basically start Q1 with approximately EUR 60 million savings year-over-year. Of course, last year, we started adjusting our cost base down throughout the year. But still, it does give us some headroom into the next quarters in terms of what we can expect in terms of savings over the year. If we do find ourselves in a situation that we need to gear that up then we always have a degree of flexibility built into our cost base. And furthermore, I mean we've been always striving to stay within our range of adaptability. That's exactly what we will do throughout the rest of the year. So that is basically how we look at 2025. The scenarios, yes, it's everyone's question, obviously. What we can do is basically making sure that we see weekly -- - daily, but weekly with all our top countries, and we have prepared scenarios in terms of actions to be taken. In terms of the -- I mean -- go ahead, Marc. Yes.
Marc Zwartsenburg
analystYes. That combined with the indirect cost savings will mean that you can even protect your margin in the second half in case things get worse. Is that how we should look at it?
Jorge Vazquez
executiveSay that again, Marc, sorry.
Marc Zwartsenburg
analystLine of thinking. Now that combined with the overhead savings and the indirect cost savings you already put in place means that we should see some margin protection possible even if things get worse. Is that what you're going to say?
Jorge Vazquez
executiveYes. We will -- that's how we enter in Q1. It's obviously what the tone we want to set for the year. It's impossible to guarantee, but that's how we're looking at the year. And the FX, I mean I would say at the moment, year-to-date, it's broadly stable. So there's nothing that we are basically factoring in a little bit into Q2. But let's be realistic, it's super volatile. Do remember one thing. Our cost and our revenues go hand-in-hand in the same currency. So let's also kind of keep a capping for Randstad's business model, the impact of FX. Yes.
Operator
operatorWe will move to our next question from Simon Van Oppen from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Simon Van Oppen
analystYes. Two, if I may. First of all, can you please give some insights into the cash taxes for the year? And secondly, could you please give some insights into the development of your MSP business?
Jorge Vazquez
executiveRight. So in terms of cash, so you see an impact on our estimated tax rate to go up this year. I think most of the factors are known, Simon. So on one hand, you have the full implementation of Pillar II. We do have, let's say, nonsupportive mix, let's say, more profit in high-level jurisdictions than in lower level. But more important, I think that's basically what we've been talking a lot about in the previous call and with other competitors. The temporary increase in the French corporate income tax. If we look at all of this, our guidance is now 28% to 30%, factoring all the things we can see in our business today.
Alexander van't Noordende
executiveYes. With respect to our MSP business, we're pleased with how the business is developing. Also there, we've had a few good wins this quarter. What is also good to see that most MSP deals have an element of direct sourcing, which is, of course, a good thing for us at Randstad. And the other thing is it's not directly MSP, but we are working, of course, with our Workday alliance to approach Workday clients to have direct access to their acquisitions of those clients, which is also a very interesting element in the game.
Simon Van Oppen
analystAnd what was your growth rate for MSP in the first quarter?
Alexander van't Noordende
executiveWe don't break that down, Simon. So don't break that down.
Jorge Vazquez
executiveAnd also again, like Sander alluded to it, MSP is as important in terms of growth rate, but even more important direct sourcing of it.
Operator
operatorIt appears there are no further questions. So I will hand you back to Sander for any additional remarks. Please go ahead, sir.
Alexander van't Noordende
executiveThank you, Adip, and thank you all for joining the call today. Before we wrap up, let me thank all 600,000 talents and Randstad people for doing again, a great job this quarter, and we look forward to seeing you all tomorrow in London or online for our update on our partner for talent strategy. See you there.
Operator
operatorThis concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
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