Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Limited ($520111)

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Limited Q4 FY '26 Earnings Call hosted by Monarch Networth Capital Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sahil Sanghvi from Monarch Networth Capital. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, Ark. Good evening to everyone. On behalf of Monarch Networth Capital, we welcome you all to the 4Q FY '26 Earnings Conference Call of Ratnami Metals & Tubes. We are delighted to host the management of Ratnamani. And from their side, we have Mr. Manoj Sanghvi, the Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Vimal Katta, the Chief Financial Officer. So without taking much time, I'll hand over the call to Mr. Manoj Sanghvi for opening remarks. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Yes. Thank you, Sahil. Good evening, everyone. I warmly welcome you all, and thank you for joining us for our performance update for the quarter ended on 31st March 2026. The company operated in a challenging business environment during the quarter with continued muted demand conditions and adverse geopolitical developments in the Middle East, impacting order booking, project execution and overall market sentiment. Despite these headwinds, the company demonstrated strong operational resilience and successfully navigated the evolving situation. On a stand-alone basis, our sales for Q4 stood at INR 893 crores as against the base of INR 1,575 crores in Q4 of the previous year, which was also the highest ever quarterly sales in the company's history. For the full year as well, stand-alone performance remained impacted by subdued demand conditions impacting order inflows and resulted in lower capacity utilization. The Stainless Steel division performed broadly in line with the previous year, while the decline in overall sales was primarily driven by lower volumes in Carbon Steel division. Despite lower volumes, our continued focus on operational efficiency, cost optimization and improved product mix with higher value-added products ensured that there was no negative impact on the EBITDA margins in percentage terms, both for the quarter and for the year. We also continue to focus on expanding our market through new geographical areas and product application. During the year, company further strengthened its portfolio and manufacturing capabilities with 18-meter spiral welded pipes and expansion of API 5CT product range. I'm also happy to share that company continues to remain debt-free on a stand-alone basis. The order book has continued to be around INR 2,000 crores during the previous year and as on 1st May 2026 was around INR 2,160 crores, while export contributing around INR 700 crores, providing good revenue visibility for the coming periods. Now moving on to our subsidiaries. Ravi Technoforge continued its strong presence and achieved a revenue of INR 105 crores during the quarter, representing a growth of 28% over corresponding quarter of last year. For the full year, revenue grew by 33% to INR 377 crores. Growth was driven by both exports and domestic markets, while EBITDA margins improved from 10% to 12% due to operational efficiencies. Our expansion projects at Ravi Technoforge are processing well and will further enhance capacity, automation and precision capabilities. These upgrades will also help us step into new customer segments. Our subsidiary, Ratnamani Finow Spooling Solutions also continued its strong momentum. The company achieved a revenue of INR 72 crores during the quarter, registering around 60% over the corresponding growth -- 60% over the corresponding quarter of last year. FY '26 was the first full year of operations for RFSS, during which it achieved a revenue of INR 390 crores. RFSS continues to witness healthy order inflows and improving execution efficiencies. The new manufacturing facility being set up by the company is progressing well and is expected to start contributing revenues from the second half of the current financial year. On a consolidated basis, our Q4 sales stood at INR 1,085 crores as against INR 1,715 crores in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. For the full year, consolidated sales stood at INR 4,494 crores compared to INR 5,186 crores in FY '25. At the consolidated level, the strong performance of Ravi Technoforge and RFSS significantly supported overall group profitability with the bearing rings and pipe spooling business emerging as key growth drivers. Despite lower revenues, the group maintained profitability margin and absolute EBITDA and net profit broadly in line with the previous year. Based on the current year's performance, the future outlook and the present challenging times, conservation of resources till things settle down, the Board has decided to recommend a lower dividend of INR 10 per share, which will still be 500% on the face value. Although order booking remained moderate during the quarter due to delayed project cycles arising from current global situation, inquiry levels have started showing signs of improvement across key markets. With expected improved demand visibility going forward, strong subsidiary momentum, contribution from ongoing expansion projects and the positive long-term industry outlook, we remain confident of strengthening our market position and delivering sustainable growth in the years ahead. Thank you once again for your continued trust and confidence in the company. I'm happy to answer questions now. Thanks.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Dhananjai Bagrodia with Alchemy.

Just wanted to ask you, with this Middle East--

[Technical Difficulty] since there is no response from the participant, we'll move to the next participant. The next question comes from the line of Sailesh Raja with 360 ONE Capital Market.

can you hear?

Yes Sailesh, Please go ahead.

Yes. So there is excess capacity available in domestic stainless steel pipe industry, while demand also remains weak, which is getting reflected in our order backlog numbers. So historically, this segment has not witnessed meaningful pricing pressure, but the dynamics now it is completely different. Almost every carbon steel company has entered into stainless steel space. Sir, do you believe that there is a structural change underway in the profitability per metric in stainless steel? and also, this is also very capital-intensive business with historically, very good margins also. But if margins begin to decline structurally, where do you see the best deployment opportunity for Ratnamani incremental? For example, if we generate INR 100 incremental cash flow, so how much we'll deploy it in its bearing and pipe spooling business? Because if you see in the current CapEx, we are spending only INR 50 crores pertaining to stainless steel out of INR 770 crores, the capacity that we are creating in India. So could you please talk about the Stainless Steel division?

So just to correct -- give you the correct perspective, the stainless steel volume in the last fiscal year actually went up, not down, but the prices were down. So we were more or less flattish on the revenue. Yes. And yes, a lot of carbon steel players plus other players, the competition intensity in stainless steel or carbon steel is increasing. However, most of the capacity is for the pierced seamless products. So which market as it is, Ratnamani is not catering to. So our -- still our focus remains on high value-added extruded products. where only one new player is supposed to come. I don't know by when. but it will take some time before the new capacities in the extruded segment comes.

So in the near future, is there any CapEx plan in stainless steel division or focus...

Debottlenecking CapEx is going on. We are investing -- we are already doing instrumentation tubes in straight length. Now we are executing a few orders in the coil form, and we will continue to increase the capacity over there. We are planning for a new tube mill on the welded side. Since it is -- all the CapEx put together is not significant, it is not -- or it is part of our routine CapEx. So it is not highlighted separately.

Okay. Sir, on the line pipe side, that opportunity appears very promising in both domestic as well as exports market. There are multiple pipeline projects being discussed in Saudi, including the sea pipeline opportunity from Middle East to India. So as mentioned, there could be a sizable opportunity in stainless steel in the Middle East preconstruction activity gathers pace. So ADNOC is also talking about doubling the exports. So how do you see the business opportunity evolving for us, both in Stainless Steel, Carbon Steel division for us over the next 1, 2 years?

No. With the current situation internationally, definitely, once this is over, we don't know today by when it will be over or by when things will be normal. But yes, definitely, not only in Middle East, but domestic as well as other parts of the world, we will see a push in carbon steel pipes as well as stainless steel tubes and pipes because refineries, petrochemical plants, whatever is damaged, plus the new expansion once the oil is transported from, say, the point of originating to wherever it goes. So the refining CapEx petrochemical plants, also we will see CapEx. And we feel that, yes, in 2 months, 3 months from now, we'll see -- if things normalize, we'll see the demand. Of course, many projects are announced, but detailed working of that will be done. So in another 3 months, 6 months, we will see those demand -- those kind of demand for both stainless steel and carbon steel pipes coming in.

The next question comes from the line of Divyansh Gupta with Latent PMS.

I have actually a question for each of the business verticals. Starting with the spool pipes business. So is the understanding correct that the spool pipe assembly that we give is more of a onetime in the nuclear plant? And if yes, then the question is that how are we seeing the order book build out? Where is the order book -- where are the orders coming from? And what is giving us confidence to expand our capacity given that even if someone says, I want to do a nuclear plant today, the requirement of the pipe might come, let's say, 2 or 3 years down the line when the actual fitment of nut and bolt is expected to happen?

Yes. Thank you. So your first question was whether it is a onetime requirement. No, it is not a onetime requirement. Now -- and with the current situation globally and the amount of data centers being announced, not only in India, but elsewhere, the demand for power will go up. Only thermal or only renewable will not be able to suffice the future power requirement. Saying that, we feel that not only in India and with the vision of our honorable Prime Minister by 2047, where he wants to have, say, 100 gigawatts of nuclear plant, not only in India, but internationally, also a lot of nuclear power projects have been [Audio Gap] so us being at the moment, the only nuclear approved facility from India for Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited, plus internationally also, now we've been approved to supply for projects in Egypt, Turkey, Hungary. So we see that there is good potential for RFSS to grow from here.

Got it. And when you say it is not a onetime product, so then, let's say, how -- at what frequency is the product replaced? The life of the spool pipe is...?

So any nuclear power plant, greenfield new project, say, for 1 gigawatt, 4,000 to 5,000 tonnes of pipe spools are required. Now currently, considering what the number of plants India is planning plus the other geographies what they are planning, this plant will be booked itself for the new nuclear power plants.

Got it. Understood. Understood. On RTL, the question was that what is the percentage of either exports or deemed exports? And does the tariff equalization now in the U.S. brings any tailwind or any contracts which were delayed because of tariffs starting back -- coming back on the discussion table? And how should we see the business ramp-up happening?

So we have the data for physical exports, which is between 35% to 40% for Ravi Technoforge. Deemed export, we don't have the exact data, but 50% of what we supply to the domestic manufacturers, SKF, Schaeffler or the other bearing manufacturers. I think 40% to 50% of that is exported by them.

Got it. So about 60%, 60% to 65% at least is getting exported. And they get exported to -- so yes, the U.S. tariff and which geographies are they getting exported to?

Europe, U.S., also rest of the world.

And is there a broad mix that you can give?

No. See, we would not have that data in detail, but our customers would definitely, yes.

Understood. Coming to the Middle East plant that we were planning to set up, I see the date is still March of 2027. So if you can give updates on two aspects. Does the current war leads to -- has led to any delays or, let's say, reevaluation of time lines? And where are we currently after the initial certificate that we got to -- or the approval that we got that, okay, we can start doing the greenfield -- start doing the CapEx activity in Middle East?

Yes. So considering that things will normalize say, in another month or so, we still are confident that we'll be able to finish the project, especially the trials within March 2027. The current status, if I say the design and engineering is complete. It has been submitted to authorities for approval. Once it is approved, the contractor will be finalized for construction and simultaneously, we'll be ordering all the machinery. Yes. So we are also waiting at the moment for things to normalize, so we can award the contracts for construction. So as of now, we still remain confident that the project can be finished within March 2027. If there is any spillage, it can be of 3 months.

Got it. And coming to the stand-alone entity, which is the fourth business vertical, the order today, if you can split it between CS and SS? Second question is, given that, let's say, given the government financials are under strain, I'm guessing the Jal Jeevan Nigam is under stress and similarly, the oil and gas is also under strain. So what is the traction we are getting in CGD because at least the article says that CGD is seeing a lot of traction. And you mentioned that inquiries are coming. So where are these inquiries coming from? And any particular segment where we are seeing a lot of inquiries coming in?

On order book, Manojji, if you correct, I'll assist here. As of 1st May, it was INR 2,162 crores, out of which INR 531 crores was stainless steel and INR 1,631 crores was carbon steel. And out of this INR 2,162 crores, INR 697 crores was the export component, okay?

Got it. Understood. And on the inquiry part, where are the inquiries coming from? And are we seeing any tailwind because of CGD?

So domestic, there are a few inquiries from gas transmission companies. Then there are a few inquiries on stainless steel from the refinery segment and the petrochemical segment, some portion in the renewable energy segment. Also, if we see the thermal power segment, where our stainless steel products go for high-pressure heater tubes and low-pressure heater tubes plus the condenser tube. So we are seeing strong demand from there also. Oil and gas, still, yes, Middle East, we are hearing there are a few projects. However, they are going slow because still the shipping system or the shipping lines are not willing to or even if they are willing to -- the cost is too high. So once that normalizes, the real picture of demand from Middle East we will know.

The next question comes from the line of Tanmay Agarwal with [Indiscernible]

Yes. Okay. Sir, my first question is with 80 gigawatts of thermal and renewable power capacity expected to be added over the next 4 to 5 years, could you help us to size the stainless steel opportunity both in volume and value terms? Specifically, what is approximate tonnage of stainless steel tubes required per gigawatt of additional capacity? And what share of this opportunity is Ratnamani positioned to address?

Can you repeat the first part because your voice was not very clear.

Sure, sir. With 80 gigawatt of thermal and renewable power capacity expected to be added over the next 4 to 5 years, could you help us to size the stainless steel tube opportunity, both in volume and value terms?

I don't have the exact number at the moment. But for power plant, as I mentioned just before this question, that we are major suppliers for the heat exchangers, high pressure, low pressure as well as the condenser tubes. So all put together, the volumes for the power segment is substantial, which before, say, 2025 or 2024, the power demand was quite less. Our supplies to power demand -- the power sector had gone down. However, for the next 5 years, we feel and we see that the demand is going to remain quite strong in this segment.

Sir, my another question is regarding Middle East and O&G demand. Sir, what -- given the significant infrastructure disruption that had happened in the Middle East due to the ongoing conflicts, are you seeing any incremental inquiry or order inflow in the oil and gas segment, either from reconstruction activity or from the accelerated pipeline build-out?

Not yet. We have been hearing various projects. However, the actual demand or the actual inquiry is not yet seen. Two major factors. One, the shipping -- because whatever orders we have, we are unable to ship still because only few ports we can ship to, and they are able to handle limited cargo. Plus the other ports where we want to send the material. However, the vessel is either charging, say, obnoxious amount, which the customer is not willing to accept. So until and unless things settle, of course, on paper, we see a lot of demand. But the actual demand on ground, we will only know once things settle down.

The next question comes from the line of Netra Deshpande with Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

To start with about two questions which I have. Can you give me a breakup volume for the CS and SS pipe for the forward guidance and the realization per tonne? And what would be the any other like new product mix, which is you are going to -- any other plans for the capacity expansions and the new product mix, which is going to be there for the further year? So this is my first question. Exact volume breakup for the revenue guidance or you can say for the volume and sales for CS and SS.

Yes. So see, carbon steel, the volumes have gone down, considering that we were shifting some capacity the whole year, out of the whole year 9, 10 months, there was a shift of capacity from one location to another location. So during the year, if you see, we started production at Orissa. So that capacity is back up and running. Another modification what we did in Kutch, where we used to manufacture pipes in the length of 12 meters. So now that plant is capable to manufacture pipes up to 18 meters. So we are back to our capacity what it was before last financial year. And for stainless steel, there has been volume growth, as indicated earlier. However, in the price terms, we are more or less, say, 5% to 10% higher than the previous year.

Okay. So realization would be -- for the FY '27 would be -- we can expect 5%, right?

Our budget for the year, say, is close to anywhere -- on a stand-alone basis, anywhere between INR 4,800 crores to INR 5,000...

Okay. And my second question about -- as we have seen in the balance sheet, we have maintained with the low debt and again the net cash. So what will be the position for the -- like I just would like to get the breakup of net cash position? And what is the target for the further -- as given with the CapEx cycle, what would be the further forward guidance for you can say the further debt level position for the next two years?

Yes. We are working on 2, 3 projects. So once those materialize, we will be able to give you the guidance on the cash flows or the cash that the company has. At the moment, what is the amount available, Kattaji, if you can please reply to that?

As on date, we will be having close to INR 800 crores available as free cash with the company. And whatever little debt is getting reflected in the balance sheet that is basically in case of any requirement. So we have FD-OD facilities. So minor utilization might be there. Otherwise, company is 100% debt-free as far as regular bank limits are concerned.

The next question comes from the line of Saurabh Patwa with Quest Investment Management.

Just two, three questions. One is, sir, given this year, you had some spillover -- some delay in dispatch of the products which you would already because of the export orders because of the Middle East issues and the order book which you have, if this spills over and over time during the year, if this normalizes, so will this INR 4,800 crores to INR 5,000 crores of target which you have is including this? Or is this for the current year's target and this can have a higher number?

No, it is -- the INR 4,800 crores, what we say is considering that things will normalize soon.

And last year, dispatches also will happen.

Last year, we had -- say, we were sitting on about INR 100 crores to INR 150 crores worth of material, which was about to be shipped. It could not be shipped because of this conflict.

Correct. And sir, secondly, this year, we had a last 2 quarters, we are having close to 40% kind of decline in our volumes despite a growth in stainless steel. So assuming this thing normalizes, and we get some growth back in this carbon steel, how does this impact margins? Because I believe stainless steel is much higher margin. So will the margins get impacted negatively?

No. The moment things normalizes, we will see a lot of projects, right? So we will get our share of margin of carbon steel product.

Okay. Okay. So the current margins of carbon steel are depressed? Is this -- or like last year's carbon steel margins were slightly depressed compared to historical past?

Yes. Not -- I would say not depressed, depressed, but the mix changed, right? Because a lot of it was water projects, not oil and gas. Now going forward, the demand for oil and gas and the Jal Jeevan Mission, both will be there. So if we manage the product mix well, definitely, we'll be able to sustain the margins.

So we should be able to deliver 16% to 18% margins. This is a fair understanding?

Basically, higher utilization of capacities will result into better absorption of fixed costs. So that negative impact of higher contribution coming from line pipes, carbon steel line pipes will not be that significant. 1% here and there might be there. In the longer run, this 16% to 18% seems to be sustainable range.

Understood, sir. Understood. And sir, just lastly, was there any ForEx impact positive or negative this year compared to last year in this quarter?

ForEx, basically because exports have been significant. We have been positive on the receivable side. So positive impact has been there. That figure for the entire year will be closer to INR 45 crores...

The next question comes from the line of Dhruv Saraf with Bowhead India Fund.

Just wanted to understand, you've alluded to the fact that power demand for stainless steel tubes from the power sector remains to be very buoyant. Sir, but this is also a space where piercing technology is gaining wide acceptance. So do you see a situation where your margins in power will be lower than your margin that you earned in the past because of new acceptance of piercing? Do you see that as a threat to you?

Yes, see, substantial capacities have been added in stainless steel seamless segment. Products are being accepted. If you say that, I would say, yes, they are being accepted. But at the same time, we see failures also happening. Recent fire or heat exchanger failure at one of the refineries in Rajasthan was a major failure and the tubes are to be replaced or is to be replaced in a month. So piercing technology, yes, it is accepted. Short term, maybe, yes, margins. There will be a pressure. However, we continue to enter new segments like defense, which is increasing for us, aerospace, which is increasing for us. So we will move up the ladder. We'll try to -- that market in India is growing. So it's an opportunity for us. Yes, power, we might have a little compromise on the margins, but I think that phenomenon may be temporary.

There might be eventually reluctance to accept piercing going forward, let's say, two, three years down the line in heat exchanger in power and refineries. Could there be like a rollback in that side or from piercing again?

Many end users have limited the tubes to be manufactured by extruded mother hollows. And we see addition or the increase in number of such end users. That's all I can say.

Okay. So there's been an increase in the number of end users who have restricted their demand to only extruded. That's what you said, if I'm getting it right.

For tubes, yes.

Okay. That will be very helpful. Sir, just one more question on the export business, especially on stainless steel, sir. So Europe is coming with this carbon border adjustment mechanism later this year. And there is also some factor about reducing the quota of Indian stainless steel exports to the continent. So do you think it's going to be a big game changer either positively or negatively for your export business, especially in stainless steel?

Short term, I don't see any major impact on us. See, finally, there has to be local manufacturing or this is to support the local manufacturing. Now the local manufacturing will also adjust the price accordingly. And if the demand is more than the supply, the price adjustment will happen itself. So short term, not a major impact. But yes, long term, if it continues, we will see local manufacturers expanding their capacities. And yes, that is where the impact can come.

Understood. But that would be a 5-, 6-, 7-year phenomenon, but it's not more of a 2-, 3-year...

Yes.

The next question comes from the line of Deepak Sodhi with Sundaram Mutual Fund.

Yes. Sir, my first question is on pipe spools business. So if I look at this quarter, we are seeing a decline of 63% Q-o-Q because the order book execution is a bit lumpy. But despite this 63% sales decline on a Q-o-Q basis, your margins has actually gone up by 3% to 4%, right? So what explains this? Is it some inventory gain that we see in this pipe spooling business where our lower cost inventory was went into production, Hence, we see an improvement in margin despite a 50%, 60% sales decline?

See, basically in Ratnamani, we don't have any pipe business, first thing. Second thing, all our orders are on fixed price basis and inventory adjustment does not happen because of that because inventory is marked against those orders. Only excess inventory is revalued at the cost of market price which is lower. So that...

His question is about pipes pool business.

Okay. But in pipe spool business, the volumes didn't go down.

Yes. So the pipe pool business volume did not go down. So yes, when did this...

Okay. So you are saying volume did not go down, but the realization went up exponentially higher.

Yes. See, operational efficiency coming in as the volume goes up. See, we are -- today, we are prepared to manufacture a certain capacity. Now as the utilization increases, the margin improvement you are seeing and plus the nature of the order.

Okay. And sir, what is our, let's say, growth guidance for this business in FY '27 and also margin guidance for pipe spool business?

For spool business, we can see a growth of 20%, 20%, 25% for this particular year.

And will you be able to maintain that 30%, 35% margin band?

At the moment, it seems like. However, going forward, I think the margins should be in the range of 20% to 25%...

Okay. And sir, one question I had on your stand-alone pipe business. So if I look at your order book in FY '25 closing, we had a good amount of export order as well as stainless steel order. But if I look at the current closing order book, which ended in March, our stainless steel order book is down and our export order book is also down. So do you think that 16% to 17% margin can be maintained in FY '27? I am aware that you did highlight that the mix within the carbon steel has changed from, let's say, water to more oil and gas. So still -- but do you think that 16% to 17% margin can be maintained in '27...

Yes. Margins, say, 16% plus/minus 1%, definitely, it can be maintained. However, if the conflict that we see today extends, say, beyond 3, 4, 5 months, then it will be a totally different scenario.

Okay. And sir, when you say that INR 4,800 crores, is it something which you are internally factoring? Or is that an aspiration number which we have, assuming everything comes back to normal?

It's assuming that everything will be back to normal in a month's time.

Okay. Okay. And sir, lastly, on Ravi Technoforge, I just wanted to know your thoughts because in the opening remarks, you said you're looking at new customer segment as your new CapEx comes into operation. So just wanted to understand, means what kind of new customer segment are we exploring? And let's say, in FY '27, what is our growth and margin outlook for this Ravi Technoforge business?

So same, RTL this year, we can consider a growth of 10% to 15%. However, next year, when the new capacity, which we are installing comes into play, then the new customer and the new segment of some auto parts is what we can cater to.

Okay. Okay. So we are toning down our guidance from 15% to 20% to 10% to 15% in '27, correct?

Yes, yes, 10% to 15%...

The next question comes from the line of Parth Bhavsar with Investec India.

Sir, I -- my first question is related to the spooling business. Sir, what is the outstanding order book over here?

Current outstanding order book is...

For Spooling.

I think it is close to INR 550 crores. Kattaji...

Okay. So INR 550 crores. So sir, basically, what we are saying is INR 4,800 crores to INR 5,000 crores from the stand-alone business, 10% to 15% growth for Ravi Technoforge and another 20% sort of 20%, 25% growth for Finow, right? Got it. Got it. And sir, like just continuing previous participant's question, you said that margins would be stable or you'll be able to hold it because your mix in carbon steel would be on the better side. But sir, like still like if you look at our order book outstanding for SS, it's quite lower, right? So on a year-on-year basis, I'm assuming that carbon steel profitability per tonne or however you see it, it will still be lower, right, versus CS? So that should have a bearing on our -- that should -- yes, versus SS, even though your CS share, both revenue and even the mix goes up, but it will still be lower than SS, right, which should have a bearing on our EBITDA margin numbers?

Yes, but a lot of stainless steel projects are also under bidding. So we will continue to maintain that mix of order book, both for stainless steel as well as carbon steel.

Got it. And sir, what is our CapEx number for '27 and '28 absolute number?

At the moment, on stand-alone basis, we have one CapEx, which is for Saudi. Yes, other than that, the routine CapEx items, I think INR 150 crores to INR 200 crores.

The next question comes from the line of Divyansh Gupta with Latent PMS.

The question was, does RTL also have an order book kind of a metric or it's more...

They have a schedule kind of a metric.

Got it.

Early forecast based on calendar year is submitted by the international customers and domestic customers based on the financial year, they give the yearly forecast.

Got it. And this growth guidance for RTL that we have given, how much of it is, let's say, through forecast? And is there a delta? Or how should we see the current forecast against the growth guidance? Is there a gap?

No, there is no gap against the forecast and our guidance.

But that implies that there is no incremental order win expected because of capacity constraint. Is that...

We have limited scope of increasing that a little bit.

Got it. Understood. Understood. And in the order book, what would be the exposure to the Jal Jeevan Mission or water segment?

At the moment, not much. I think all put together, say, Jal Jeevan Mission or not Jal Jeevan Mission, Water all put together would be INR 300 crores to INR 400 crores.

Got it. Got it. And understood. And sir, on the spooling business, so the INR 550 crore order book that we have is expected to be, let's say, converted into revenue over what time line?

So this year, about INR 500 crores will be -- INR 480 crores to INR 500 crores is what we plan within this year.

Got it. Understood. And the last question on the spool pipe itself. So let's say, if someone is setting up a nuclear plant from a land acquisition to the actual, let's say, it going into super critical or whatever the plant going critical, right? At what stage does a EPC player, I'm guessing, place his order with Ratnamani to say that I need x tonnes of spool pipes of this design and configuration. And how much is the lead time to design and deliver the pipes?

Yes. Once the land is acquired, I think anywhere between 1 to 1.5 years, pipe spools will be ordered.

Got it. And for us to manufacture and deliver, it would take how much time on an average? I know spec to spec things can change, but...

4,000, 5,000 tonnes every year, maybe 1,500 tonnes order is what is required to be supplied.

No, I was asking from a time line perspective. You got an order today. So you need to manufacture and deliver it in, let's say, 6 months, a year or there is a whole schedule that.

It starts from 6 months and goes on up to 18 months maybe in this.

Got it. So that then implies that, that INR 550 crores of order book is basically at more or less like a fag end of the order books, order pipeline, right? Because INR 550 crores order book, INR 500 crores is done -- is expected to be done within this year?

Yes.

So what is the active pipeline of orders that we have either being nominated or being under negotiation or under bidding? And what is...

Total bidding right now is close to $400 million, $500 million. How much we will get, we will only be able to say when the time comes.

Got it. And I'm guessing there's no historical past win rate that we can refer given the newness...

The next question comes from the line of Dhruv Saraf with Bowhead India Fund.

Sir, just wanted to check, in your FY '24 annual report, you had mentioned that the export business was roughly 40% of the stainless steel business. Sir, what would be the rough ballpark figure now if you don't want to give specific numbers?

Export of stainless steel division?

Yes, sir. I'm talking about the export business in stainless.

Yes. So it varies between 35% to 40% of our volumes.

Of your volumes. Okay, sir. Sir, just one more follow-up on the carbon steel business. You've repeatedly highlighted that oil and gas CapEx in the country has been weak. But sir, if I were to just look at, let's say, the number of CGD connections that have been rolled out, which I can see from the PNGRB website, that seems to paint a different picture compared to what we've been speaking about. So can you help me reconcile the difference? Is it a different sector within oil and gas you're speaking about? Or is it something that I'm missing? So you can help me understand this?

So what is the question that the CGD numbers are going up and...

Yet somehow it's not trickling down to line pipe demand for us. So I'm just not being able to tie both the situation.

No. So pipe procurement is the first phase for any CGD operator. So whatever was procured, say, from '21 to '24, you would see those connections going up because of that network.

Understood. Okay. And sir, the recent government ruling that has come out about accelerating -- further accelerating the CGD rollout, can that lead to front-loading of a lot of demand in this space for us over the next, say what, 12 months?

Yes. All the CGD operators have been -- by the government have been informed to increase the network. But of course, again, there are private players, viability and at this steel price and the CapEx cycle, whether it is viable or not, those studies will go on, yes. But eventually, once everything settles, yes, the demand for CGD also will go up.

Okay, sir. And where you're talking about CGD could be mostly, let's say, ERW or would it also be extra LSAW for the long-distance pipeline?

No, mostly ERW pipes.

The next question comes from the line of Saurabh Patwa with Quest Investment Management.

Just 2 things quickly, sir. One is that this INR 4,800 kind of a target which you have, for the stand-alone business or for the entire company?

It's on a stand-alone basis.

Okay. And this is on the basis of the current pricing? Or is that you already built in the orders which you have, some of these would actually have the raw material price increases already there. How do you plan to cope up with that, sir? Do you have those levers with you to increase the pricing in some of these cases?

No. So for orders, whatever we have, say, raw material is already tied up. We don't -- our orders are mostly back to back.

Okay. And this target which you have includes -- is based on the current pricing for the -- assuming you get the increment orders this year.

It is considering, yes, the current price.

The next question comes from the line of Sonal with Prescient Capital.

This is Sonal Minhas. Sir, my question is again with regard to the guidance for the stand-alone business. When you compare it to your stand-alone numbers for this year and then see the guidance, it means roughly more than 25% growth in the stand-alone business basically. So just want to double check and understand what gives us the confidence in our order book compared to same time last year is a little bit lower. If there is anything significant in terms of wins, order accretion, which you can talk about to help us understand...

So there are two things. One, the capacity which was not available which was being shifted from one location to another location is now operational in this year. So one sector of growth or one scope of growth is from that particular capacity. So we are going to -- if we see we are going to reach back to what we were a year back.

Got it, sir. And the demand remains the same as the year ago? basically, that is what the assumption is here.

Yes. At the moment, with whatever announcements we see, definitely, the third and fourth quarter seems to be quite promising. However, as indicated earlier, things -- we hope that things settle down in the next month or so.

The next question comes from the line of Parth Bhavsar with Investec India.

Sir, just one question. How are we exposed with the gas supply? Like what percentage of cost has been increased? And how are the supplies currently?

Increase has been substantial. So yes, the cost part has gone up. Supply is currently still not an issue.

And this would only hit your carbon steel pipe side of business, right?

Some part of stainless steel also because we have some heat treatment furnaces working on gas.

Right. Okay. So sir, what percentage would it be like in terms of total cost on stand-alone or whatever, like whatever you can help me with the cost increase.

I don't have that number at hand.

Okay. No worries, sir.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Sahil Sanghvi for the closing remarks.

I just wanted to thank all the participants for joining the call and also thank you, management, for very patiently answering all the questions. Manoj, sir, any closing remarks from your side?

Yes. Just a thank you message to everyone for participating. In case if you have any further questions, you can reach out to us. Thanks. Bye.

Thank you.

Thank you, everybody.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Monarch Networth Capital Limited, that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.