Realty Income Corporation (O) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 5, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Kelsey Mueller
executiveWe appreciate everyone being with us for Realty Income's conference call on the operating results for the third quarter. Our President and Chief Executive Officer, Sumit Roy, along with Jonathan Pong, our Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, will be walking through the results. On this call, we may present statements that could qualify as forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. It's possible the company's actual future results could vary materially from what gets discussed in any forward-looking statements. The factors that might lead to those differences will be laid out more thoroughly in the company's Form 10-Q. To make sure everybody has a chance to take part, we'll be enforcing a 2-question cap during the Q&A portion of the call. Should you wish to pose further questions, you're welcome to get back in the queue. At this point I'll hand the call over to Sumit Roy, our CEO.
Sumit Roy
executiveThank you, Kelsey. Hello, everyone, and welcome. Realty Income's results for the third quarter underscore the momentum we continue to build, our disciplined approach to execution, and the advantages that come from our worldwide investment and operating platform. What we offer investors is straightforward: we serve as a real estate partner to the world's leading companies, and we've built a defensive, diversified property portfolio made up of top-tier clients that generates stable and predictable cash flow. Because of this, we've produced positive total operational returns annually ever since we became a public company 30 years ago, navigating successfully through many different economic conditions. Importantly, with the external environment improving, aided by a recent rate cut in the U.S., a more attractive transaction landscape has begun to emerge. In light of that, we're happy to raise our 2024 investment volume guidance to roughly $3.5 billion, supported by strong investment activity so far this year and a robust pipeline for the fourth quarter. At the same time, we're lifting the low end of our AFFO per share guidance for the year to a range of $4.17 to $4.21. Notwithstanding some recent volatility caused by exogenous factors, our confidence in our strategic vision and the opportunity that lies ahead remains firm. Our investment strategy presents significant growth opportunities across multiple verticals, among them our core of retail and industrial plus newer verticals like data centers and gaming. Meanwhile, we're making headway toward establishing a private capital fund, which I'll discuss later in this call. Now to the third quarter specifics: AFFO per share came in at $1.05, which is 2.9% growth versus last year. We put $740 million into high-quality opportunities at a blended 7.4% initial cash yield, or a 7.8% straight-line yield assuming CPI growth of 2%. Within that, $378 million of volume went into the U.S. at a 7.4% initial cash yield, while the remaining $362 million was invested in Europe at a 7.3% initial cash yield. Improvements have been meaningful in both the U.S. and Europe. Our international markets keep contributing a larger share of volume than in prior years, with healthy investment activity year-to-date, which demonstrates the benefits we've achieved by cultivating multiple avenues for growth. All told, we closed 70 discrete transactions, among them 4 transactions over $50 million, which accounted for nearly 60% of our investment volume, showing the breadth of our platform. As I mentioned, the momentum in the transaction market supports the increase in this year's investment volume guidance to $3.5 billion; during the third quarter, our organic acquisition activity, which excludes credit investments and development spending largely negotiated in prior quarters, came to $594 million, or more than double the second quarter's volume. We anticipate additional momentum over the rest of the year, with an implied fourth quarter outlook of approximately $1.3 billion in investments, which is fully funded, as we remain vigilantly focused on deploying capital into high-quality opportunities that satisfy our risk-adjusted return requirements. During the third quarter, the capital we put to work generated an investment spread of 243 basis points, which exceeded our typical historical spread of 150 basis points. Helping to support this spread was $165 million in adjusted free cash flow that remained available following dividend payments, which we used to fund investments. Our spreads are calculated using our short-term nominal cost of capital, which captures the year 1 dilution that comes from deploying external capital along with excess free cash flow on a leverage-neutral basis to finance our investment volume. As a reminder, when we make ultimate investment decisions, we rely on our long-term weighted average cost of capital, which applies the same cost of equity to each dollar of equity. Supporting the rise in our investment activity, external capital saw an improvement of roughly 65 basis points during the third quarter; that contrasts with a decrease of approximately 50 basis points in our weighted average initial cash yield over the same quarter. Now moving to portfolio operations; we have built a diversified portfolio consisting of over 15,400 properties, with high-quality clients that have demonstrated resilience across a range of economic cycles and keep producing stable returns. Beyond that, the extensive data we can access, our proprietary predictive analytic tools, and the insights provided by our asset management and research teams sharpen our capacity to foresee upcoming trends. We ended the quarter at 98.7% occupancy, which is a 10 basis point drop compared with the previous quarter. On the 170 leases we renewed, our rent recapture rate came in at 105%, amounting to roughly $38 million in new annualized cash rent, which reflects the diligent efforts of our team. On a separate note, we continue to lean into dispositions as another source of capital; during the third quarter, we sold 92 properties, generating total net proceeds of $249 million, with $87 million of that tied to vacant properties; this lifts our year-to-date total to $451 million. For the full year, we now anticipate proceeds of $550 million to $600 million from asset sales; with that, I'd like to hand things over to Jonathan so he can walk through our third quarter financial results in greater detail.
Jonathan Pong
executiveThanks, Sumit. We're happy to report yet another robust quarter, and we've raised both our investment and AFFO guidance for the year, which speaks to the momentum we're seeing. In line with how we approach investing, we stay disciplined when it comes to managing the balance sheet. The strength of that balance sheet — backed by A3 and A- credit ratings and deep worldwide access to capital — keeps serving as a meaningful competitive edge, giving us room to grow earnings across several avenues. Leverage, which we gauge through net debt to annualized pro forma adjusted EBITDA, came in at a healthy 5.4x, comfortably inside our target ratio, or 5.2x once you include the $969 million of unsettled forward equity still outstanding as of today. At 4.6x, our fixed charge coverage ratio continues to sit within the 4.5x to 4.7x band. We've now posted consistent results across the last 7 quarters. Wanting to reduce risk around future funding needs drove us to complete 2 bond offerings in the third quarter: a $500 million 30-year U.S. dollar bond offering carrying an effective semiannual yield to maturity of 5.49%, plus a dual tranche sterling bond offering that brought in GBP 700 million with a weighted average tenor of 11.1 years and a weighted average annual yield maturity of 5.4%. Through these offerings you can see both how varied our debt products are and how deliberate we are about diversifying capital. The 30-year deal marked our first 30-year issuance since 2017, while our public sterling offering was the fifth non-U.S. public bond offering we've done in roughly 3 years, pushing foreign denominated outstanding unsecured debt past $8 billion. We appreciate the steadfast backing from the fixed income community as our credit presence keeps widening around the world. As of quarter end, we were holding $5.2 billion of liquidity, unsettled forward equity included, while also keeping nearly full capacity net of cash on our $4.25 billion revolving credit facility; just 3.4% of our outstanding debt at quarter's end carried a variable rate, which shows the financing flexibility we bring into the close of the year. Being able to access capital is essential to our company's success, and the size, scale, diversification and trading liquidity of our portfolio in the public markets have continually given us attractively priced capital to grow alongside large-scale, high-quality investment opportunities. That said, we aim to show a proactive, forward-looking approach as we plan, position and evolve our financing strategy for growth ahead. In recent years, we've looked into other sources of equity capital past the public markets, and we've lately started in earnest constructing a private capital infrastructure that we think will, in time, build on our strengths and widen the range of capital allocation opportunities we can pursue globally. I'd like to turn it back to Sumit for some additional color. Sumit?
Sumit Roy
executiveThanks, Jonathan. As we said a year ago, one natural part of how we evolve is broadening and growing our ability to tap equity capital via private markets. We identify several strategic upsides to moving into the private capital segment. To begin with, the equity obtainable from private sources is much greater than what the public markets we've historically used can provide. The U.S. private real estate sector is roughly $18.8 trillion in size — 10x bigger than the $1.9 trillion in assets held by public REITs. So according to research from the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, private capital holds over 90% of the U.S. commercial real estate market. If we create a private capital investment platform, that ought to open the door to a substantial supply of institutional money—from investors who, for various reasons, may not have the permission or the means to invest in real estate securities. Second, once we can draw on this different source of equity, which tends to fluctuate less in price, we'll be in a position to speed up how quickly we turn our operating platform investment—scalable and already proven—into returns, and that in turn strengthens our ability to continue producing value for shareholders. Third, one especially potent element of the fund management approach is the extra fee income it should generate, which requires little capital. Fees we earn for handling capital belonging to outside parties represent ongoing income that can expand substantially—something the market has rewarded with a premium valuation. Nearly all of those charges would repeat regularly, arriving via evergreen, perpetual-life vehicles rather than from deal-driven or performance-linked charges. Another point: because our distinctive operating approach scales efficiently, we can advance this effort without committing much additional capital, all while leveraging the combined skill and know-how of our exceptional staff and infrastructure; after all, we have spent decades underwriting, running, and extracting maximum worth from properties, stretching back to our 1969 founding. Continuing from where we left off, we've pulled together a substantial amount of data at the property level to build our own predictive analytics model, which we use to guide decisions. As we gain more size and scale, the insights we get from that data will keep getting stronger and more precise. Combined with what our team knows, we believe this gives investors a really attractive co-investing platform. And finally, we think having private capital will allow us to find, buy, and oversee a big share of the market opportunities out there that right now we're acquiring for the public vehicle. At a high level, what we're trying to do is launch and operate an evergreen, open-end fund that manages private capital on behalf of institutional investors — pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, foundations, and big insurance companies among them. Just so we're clear, this won't look like your standard closed-end private equity vehicle, which often comes with a set lifespan or a more limited range of investments. The key point is that this vehicle is meant for institutional backers. We're not setting it up as a non-traded REIT, and our plan isn't to pitch it to wealthy individuals or everyday retail investors. Our expectation is that this fund operation will run on the very same balance sheet model and careful, disciplined borrowing approach that Realty Income uses today. We see no downside coming to the strength of our balance sheet or to our credit ratings. What it actually does is hand us more financial flexibility. Realty Income plans to serve as a significant co-investor in the fund, and it will also collect management fees and possibly incentive fees produced through the fund's operation. That added income would strengthen Realty Income's return on investment, while making sure the incentives linking public and private investors stay aligned. This strategy further underscores our dedication to transparency and to objectives we share. To sum up, we think this private capital platform will work alongside and add to what our existing business already does; when dividing investment opportunities between Realty Income and the fund, we plan to proceed thoughtfully so that returns for our public shareholders are maximized, which benefits our shareholders as well as private investors. We anticipate that this initiative will boost our capacity to grow earnings and our dividend, widen the market we can address for investments, and lessen how much we depend on public equity through various market cycles whenever doing so is strategically advantageous; we're eager to provide further details as we move ahead with getting the fund launched. To wrap up, our performance so far this year has surpassed what we expected, driven by momentum on the investment side and backed by the steadiness of our portfolio, which is made up of leading clients around the world. Going ahead, I feel optimistic about the many verticals for growth we have built for deploying capital. Crucially, combining those growth verticals with alternative capital sources will speed up our platform's maturation even more. At this point I'd like to turn it over for questions. Operator?
John Kilichowski
analystMaybe we can turn to the acquisition numbers you posted for 3Q — or actually, the guidance for acquisitions — and then talk about what you're expecting for 4Q. Cap rates came down quite a bit. I'm curious what's going on in the market for acquisitions. Then, for the second part: there's a pretty big jump in the volume of acquisitions you're projecting. Can you speak to whether a deal could happen with the large 7-Eleven transaction? And if it does, based on the cap rates we've talked about for that deal, would that raise your long-term weighted average cost of capital?
Sumit Roy
executiveJohn, you've asked quite a few questions there. I'll take each of those in turn. On the $740 million closed during Q3 at a 7.4% cap rate — that's right. That's 50 basis points tighter than Q2's 7.9% cap. Cost of capital is another factor here. Our cost of capital improved in Q3 relative to where it was when the year began, and that gain amounted to about 65 basis points. So even with the 50 basis points of cash yield compression, the fact that our cost of capital has gotten better by 65 basis points, it was more accretive to complete the transactions we did in the third quarter with the lower cost of capital that we were able to see versus what we had completed in the first half. So to examine anything in isolation, purely on cap rate or purely on cost of capital, I think may lead you to the wrong conclusion; so I would ask that you consider those 2 pieces together to determine what is the true spread that we are able to cultivate through these investments. The second question you had was about the $1.3 billion approximately that we expect to close in the fourth quarter. It is true that we have a very healthy pipeline and it is largely driven by what we were experiencing for most of the — all of the third quarter, say for what's happened over the last week, 1.5 weeks where there's been much more volatility on the cost of capital side. But that has enabled us to basically build our pipeline and we have essentially forward funded all of the $1.3 billion that we are planning on investing in the fourth quarter. At this stage, we aren't counting on the public markets at all to fund what we intend to deliver in our fourth quarter results. As for possible opportunities, changes in the price of capital are always part of our calculus. With any transaction we choose to move forward on, maintaining an adequate margin of safety is central to how we invest. Over the long term, it matters fundamentally to our business that our long-term cost of capital hurdle rates are surpassed by, again, a comfortable spread. I'm not going to break down which deals were included in the fourth quarter. But we've picked up on some remarks suggesting there's a distinction between purchasing a big portfolio and the one-off market. Rest assured, we participate in the one-off market daily. And since you brought up 7-Eleven, 35 transactions have occurred in 2024 year-to-date with roughly the same lease term, and so on — if you examine where they traded, the cap rate ranged from 5 to 9. Whenever we go after a portfolio deal — and there were 4 large portfolio deals we managed to complete in the third quarter — we ensure it comes at a discount compared to what we could find in the one-off market. And that's proven true. When you compare what we're collecting in rent to what the market would charge for the properties we bought, those $740 million in investments carry rents that are 6% below market and 26% below what it would cost to replace them. That's exactly why we feel so sure that, once you account for risk, the deals we're pursuing will deliver lasting value for our investors.
Greg McGinniss
analystSumit, you brought up how a better acquisition landscape is helping full-year investments, pointing to this move into raising equity in the private capital market. But it sounds as though you're essentially acknowledging that the constraint on deal volume during this year came from raising capital, rather than from a shortage of investments available at spreads wide enough. Is your expectation that equity costs within the fund business will come down? Also, in what ways do the investment approaches of the fund and the core business diverge, so that possible conflicts of interest are avoided when deciding where a given investment ought to go?
Sumit Roy
executiveGreg, that's an excellent question. The most significant contrast I can identify between private markets and public markets comes down to an emphasis on the first-year spread as opposed to an emphasis on IRR over the long term. Whenever we evaluate a specific transaction that falls within our historical spreads — which have been 150 basis points — we hold back from chasing it, since it doesn't match what we're capable of producing in year one. And as you're aware, better than nearly anyone, our valuation is driven by that initial spread we can lock in, which flows through into growth in AFFO per share; yet that prevents us from going after transactions whose total return profile is comparable, or perhaps even superior, thanks to built-in growth and so forth, even though their initial cash cap rate is far lower. That's precisely where we believe gaining access to private capital whose expectations for the long-term horizon — the return horizon we share — align with ours, something we concentrate on even as a standalone public entity, though without the short-term emphasis being as sharp as it is for the public entity, will let us broaden our sandbox and invest alongside this private capital business, capturing opportunities with far greater growth rates, albeit possibly at a reduced initial yield. So we view this as genuinely complementary to what we do. Go ahead. Did you have another question?
Greg McGinniss
analystYeah. I was just wondering if you could perhaps share a few instances of the kinds of investments or tenants you've needed to skip due to the present structure, compared with what this fresh form of equity capital would let you go after?
Sumit Roy
executiveAbsolutely. Industrial is a great illustration. We've examined deals in the 5.5 ZIP code. At the moment we can't enter that space, given the level of our cost of capital, involving 3% growth and 20-year leases. Run the numbers, and the return profile you get lines up quite closely with what we seek over the long term, yet we're unable to move on that specific transaction owing to what the — perhaps not dilution, but rather the absence of spread on day 1; that's a great illustration. Other property categories exist, with data centers being a great illustration of a further category that fits squarely within this group, which we might not be able to chase right now because of our cost of capital. And that's a specific part of the business we think can assist in fueling earnings growth for the public entity in the years ahead. With any luck, that offers a bit of insight.
Brad Heffern
analystRight. So the way it sounds, the fund's objective would essentially be a chance to play in a lower cap rate space. I'd like to know: do you think the 2 vehicles might wind up with any overlap when it comes to investment profiles?
Sumit Roy
executiveNaturally, we'll remain a very big equity holder in the fund. That means our interests will line up perfectly. So plenty of opportunities will come our way that we are going to be evaluating, and those genuinely suit both entities over the long term, yet in the near term might not suit the stand-alone public entity. That said, it also depends on how the capital raising goes. We won't be purchasing assets into the fund that we never would have considered, even after factoring in how the long-term return profile looks as a public entity. So the real point here is to grow the box and to go after transactions, provided our capital raising succeeds, and to take part side by side via the fund structure. That's the way we'd prefer to put capital to work.
Brad Heffern
analystAll right. So, is there a certain size you're aiming for where it would be worthwhile even with the extra hassle?
Sumit Roy
executiveMy expectation is that this will be quite straightforward. What exactly creates the extra hassle? Well, it involves a separate pool of capital, yet unlike pools of capital that have a limited lifespan, this one is a perpetual structure. And we'll be putting in a great deal of money as co-investors in this perpetual structure. And essentially, it will be completely consolidated into our financial statements. So you'll have complete transparency. The reality that we possess scale, and the reality that we have a platform we take great pride in, sadly, isn't assigned value from time to time by the public markets. And this gives us a method to turn that platform into money and, as a result, face very minimal additional expense to set up this structure. That as well is a benefit our existing platform will deliver. And I could even go as far as saying that because of our size and scale, which we've described as being such a huge edge, this is among the ways we can demonstrate that to the market.
Smedes Rose
analystI’d like to dig a bit into that $63 million charge this quarter tied to the convenience store customer. Is this the same customer you had some smaller charges against during the first half of the year? Could you give us a bit more detail on what the end result is likely to be? I realize you can’t identify the customer, but perhaps a little extra context on what’s happening there?
Jonathan Pong
executiveFirst off, we definitely anticipate a positive resolution. We’ve discussed in the past circumstances where credit problems arose in the portfolio, and we’ve recovered more than 80% of the rent affected. Regarding the accounting that produced the $64 million charge, it is noncash above all; it stems from how the original purchase price was allocated. There’s land, there’s building, and then there’s an intangible, which is intended to reflect the future cash flows embedded in the lease. So the reserve you’re seeing, which flows into impairment but is categorized as a financing receivable because these were originally sale leasebacks. That’s essentially just a naming difference, which is why it’s left out of AFFO. It’s noncash; and we’ve already essentially captured all of the lost rent for the full year of 2024 that is included in our guidance.
Sumit Roy
executiveAnd let me tack on just a bit there, since credit is the subject, I'll give you a little more detail. What I'm talking about are properties we truly want — that we want to have control over; and we're pulling out every stop to obtain that control; basically this is a tenant that has chosen to stop paying rent while still running those properties. And we — thanks to what the asset management team has already accomplished, we're seeing an enormous amount of interest in these properties, most of which sit in Texas; so our confidence is high that we can substitute the rent, and in this instance it isn't significant. The real cash rent comes back very fast once control is ours; so that's the convenience store operator. But since credit is where we are, I'd like to take you through some of what has taken up most of the discussion across recent quarters. Red Lobster is out of bankruptcy and has just brought in a CEO; a Chief Marketing Officer has been hired too. A new CFO is in place as well. Let me put that storyline to rest. Prebankruptcy, we held 216 assets. Through the bankruptcy, 9 assets were rejected. On that name, our recapture rate came to 91%. Rite Aid. Today we have 29 locations. Our recapture rate on Rite Aid was 88%, and that company has now come out of bankruptcy and continues to operate. Regal, where 35 assets are ours today, saw an 85% recapture rate and has come out of bankruptcy. So those are the storylines that took up many quarters of discussion, and this is how all of that discussion ended up. Now Walgreens. Everyone worries about what was once 2,000 store closings, a figure that has since come down to 1,500. So far this year, 13 Walgreens have reached renewal. Their leases matured. Walgreens renewed all 13. Across our history of 55 renewals with Walgreens, our recapture rate has exceeded 100%. Let's bring CVS into it; in our history, 40 leases have renewed with CVS at above 102% renewal. Let's turn to Family Dollar, Dollar Tree. In our history, we've had 135 lease renewals with Family Dollar, Dollar Tree at a renewal rate above 108%. Dollar General tells a similar tale. So my only request is that what shows up in headlines doesn't automatically reflect what's taking place on the ground in our portfolio. And the point I want to stress is that we are extremely selective, and the data bears that out. Go ahead, Smedes. Sorry, I cut you off.
Smedes Rose
analystNo. No. Look, I get that you've given us plenty of information, and we understand it. But naturally, when those headlines show up, we're obliged to bring them up, correct? That's just how this industry works. I'd like to follow up with you on — let's return to the fund briefly. You — I believe someone raised this earlier, yet I don't recall hearing a response. Do you have any sense of roughly how large the fund might be? Are we possibly talking about $1 billion as a starting point? Or do you envision it reaching several billions? Or how are you thinking about the fund's size, I suppose, at the outset, and perhaps how it could expand down the road?
Sumit Roy
executiveYes. It's too early to tell. Clearly, we have faith in our assets. We have faith in what we're doing. We have faith that — the advantages of what we're doing will flow to our public shareholders, but it's too early Smedes me to offer a view on how big this could potentially become.
Jay Kornreich
analystJay, that's a fair question, and considering what we've completed over these quarters, it makes sense to ask.
Sumit Roy
executiveSure, 56% of our activity so far this year has taken place in Europe, yet we see that as a plus — it's exactly why we built out all those growth verticals, so we can capitalize on wherever the strongest prospects are; and through the first 3 quarters, Europe is where those turned out to be. My sense is that the momentum over in Europe is going to keep going; we're finding really solid opportunities there. And indeed, expanding past the geography we currently cover — and by geography I mean European nations — is something we're always examining. So if the right opportunity comes along, there are a number of countries where we aren't present that we'd be open to entering, provided we have the right client and the right opportunity. Jay also raised the question of what lies ahead. So regarding the $1.3 billion anticipated in Q4, let me finish that thought. The momentum I mentioned earlier was what we're witnessing right here in the U.S. Over in Europe, that momentum has persisted. It was present at the start of the year. It has kept going, but during the fourth quarter is when you'll observe it returning to more typical historical patterns when it comes to the U.S. compared with international.
Haendel St. Juste
analystSumit, I'd like to revisit the fund one more time. You've already listed quite a few advantages, it seems. But I'm also considering that down the road there might be a benefit in letting you eventually produce mid-single-digit AFFO growth — your core long-term growth objective — without needing large equity raises each year, given your current rent bumps plus reinvesting free cash flow. So first, is that a fair way to look at it? And then perhaps some detail on whether you'd fund it using assets already in your portfolio, and how that mix might break down?
Sumit Roy
executiveGreat question, Haendel. I appreciate it. You've got it right. What we're after is entering this business to widen the investable universe for the fund and for ourselves, while ensuring we stick to the return expectations of everyone involved. It's simply a mathematical reality that today this isn't a problem, yet 10 years down the road, growing at our current pace, if public markets remain our only source for financing growth, capacity constraints will catch up with us. My view is that the public markets — particularly the fund business within them — aren't expanding at the pace we expect of ourselves as a public entity. So a shortage of opportunities isn't what's pushing us toward the fund business. Rather, it's ensuring this additional equity capital source helps us monetize our platform and build a business that lets us sustain the momentum shown across the last 55 years, 30 of them as a public entity. That's what we're aiming for. Apart from the initial — let's call it seeding — of this fund, whose portfolio, incidentally, will look and feel a lot like Realty Income, and everything about it will be disclosed at the right moment, this serves as a means to draw in capital and launch our business. After that, though, new transactions will be what they take part in, whether alongside us or on the public entity's balance sheet. That's how this business will operate. I hope that's clear, Haendel.
Haendel St. Juste
analystNo, that is incremental. Thanks for that. Then one additional item — I'm not certain whether you addressed it, but I didn't fully hear whether the fourth-quarter pipeline suggests cap rates will be similar or come in lower? Also, when I consider the higher volume heading into the fourth quarter, is that a reasonable run rate for next year?
Sumit Roy
executiveYes. Haendel, I won't offer a view on cap rates and such, since conditions can shift quite a bit. What I can say is that the spread we generate is going to be — will remain healthy and will remain above our historical spreads. On that, you can have a fair amount of confidence. And the other thing I'll leave you with, Haendel, is that our need for the fourth quarter has already been prefunded. So funding this $1.3 billion we plan to do in the fourth quarter does not depend on the public markets. Hopefully, that helps.
Spenser Allaway
analystAnother question about the private fund. Could you perhaps discuss how the team's time will be allocated, specifically regarding deal underwriting and opportunities overall, and also for you personally, Sumit? Additionally, I recall your remarks about economies of scale related to our data and data analytics. I'm just wondering whether you anticipate any adjustments to staffing levels or the investment approach during the initial phases of that launch.
Sumit Roy
executiveExcellent question, Spenser, since it gets right to the core of my point about scaling — leveraging the size we've built as a company today to offset what would be an overwhelming expense for a startup trying to launch this operation; our business employs 465 individuals. We've already got a completely staffed investment division, spanning the U.S. and the U.K.; plus in Amsterdam, handling our global operations. So we anticipate no requirement or additional hires on the investment front. That's the first scaling advantage. The second scaling advantage is that we'll remain indifferent about whether these assets sit in a fund — which, incidentally, the publicly traded company will hold a substantial stake in — or whether they're kept on the balance sheet. Consequently, our asset management group, which has performed admirably on the public side, in the U.S. and across international markets in London, will keep overseeing these assets. That's the second scaling advantage. For any sales, any related components, we've got the staff already; we possess a substantial legal department that we'll utilize, and that's clearly a huge point of pride for us since we handle most tasks internally. We'll keep relying on them for assistance with deal talks, lease discussions, and so forth. That's the third scaling advantage; the infrastructure is already established — so we won't require additional personnel for the foundational tasks necessary for an investment division, though we will incur added expenses for a fund manager, reporting duties, and an investor relations role that will engage with a highly particular investor group on the private side. Beyond that, accounting and finance — which, again, is something we take great pride in — will be fully supported by our current infrastructure. That summarizes my view that the added expense of launching this operation will be quite limited.
Spenser Allaway
analystThat's really useful. So for the final question, could you share your thoughts on how competition in the space is shifting? Or whether anything has changed in the U.S. and Europe at present when it comes to the transaction market?
Sumit Roy
executiveSure, Spenser, things are extremely fluid regarding the players we now find ourselves up against. Without question, private arms are turning into significantly larger participants in the deals we go after; and naturally, a handful of additional net lease companies have gone public. Because of the kinds of transactions we target, we seldom cross paths with the majority of them, yet the field is quite crowded when it comes to rivalry in the U.S. When it comes to the international market, that remains among the greatest strengths we possess, and while we face more rivals now than was the case, say, 1 year or 2 years back, it still isn't nearly as fierce as the situation in the U.S. And the bulk of that rivalry stems from private capital abroad; so that describes the nature of whom we're up against in the U.S; and in the international markets.
Upal Rana
analystSumit, you brought up how much momentum there is right now in the transaction market, and — but I was hoping to get a feel for whether buyers and sellers have actually responded to that rate cut of 50 basis points, especially with another cut of 25 basis points probably coming this week, and then with the 10-year pushing up roughly 65 basis points since the Fed's previous rate cuts. So I'd like to get a solid read on that.
Sumit Roy
executiveYes. Upal, I'd say a great deal of the volatility we're seeing along the curve right now centers on what's going to happen today. And that's the biggest exogenous factor that will shape where the curve ultimately settles. Our exposure to the short end of the curve isn't as significant. We do have some — but it doesn't match the degree of our exposure to the long end. So developments at the long end of the curve absolutely affect our cost of capital, since that turns into our permanent financing source and shapes our capacity to go after transactions; and that ties back to the inflation expectations people hold regarding the future. And should policies be — put in place under which the inflation expectation suddenly runs far above what it traditionally had been, that will affect where the tenure settles, and that will surely affect the permanent cost of capital for a net lease business, whether favorably or unfavorably. And those things are mostly driven by policy; we've seen 2 parties put forward proposals whose impacts on this particular inflation expectation differ widely; so it's too early to say where all of this will settle. It's generating a considerable amount of volatility, and our hope is that no matter who wins, once we get greater clarity about what the curve will look like, we'll be able to carry out business as usual.
Upal Rana
analystGreat, that's useful. Then one final question from my side. Turning back to the private capital fund — I realize you've already gone through quite a few advantages of it. Still, I'd like to hear your take on what makes the timing right and why it fits with the way the economy looks today. You did bring up capacity possibly becoming a constraint down the road, but is there anything beyond that which has been causing some friction on your end?
Sumit Roy
executiveHonestly, Upal, nothing of that sort is showing up for us on the credit side. I believe I gave you a fairly thorough rundown indicating that when it comes to credit, our confidence is high. Our credit watch list actually declined 10 basis points, landing at 4.2% versus the prior quarter. So on the credit front, we're feeling quite good. We're also feeling quite good about how healthy the market is for prompting transactions — setting aside the events of the past couple of weeks, though our expectation is that this too shall pass. Really, it's about getting the timing right to do this properly, which obviously is what all of us want. Our approach here is going to be deliberate and gradual, and reaching a mature stage for this business is going to require a great deal of time—a really extended period. Take Prologis, for instance, a competitor that arguably runs one of the best-performing open-ended fund operations out there. They've been operating in that space for more than two decades. And now, when we look at it today, we can say it has turned into an incredibly successful venture—one that some highly intelligent individuals got involved with 20 years back. And so in anticipation of what could happen 10 years from now, et cetera, when we start to run up against this, our desire to put out capital and perhaps the limits of just accessing the capital sources that we have today, that could become more acute. We need to begin now on creating that track record and growing this fund operation until it genuinely delivers results for the people who own our public stock, and so on. That's the whole point. That's the reason we're taking this step now. To be honest, no matter when we'd picked to act — whether sooner or later in the cycle — people would have asked that same reasonable question. What matters most is that we're making this move at a time when we don't actually need additional capital, which lets us expand this business and get ahead of a limitation that could otherwise set us back a number of years down the road.
Linda Tsai
analystJust a couple of fast questions. Could you update us on how bad debt for 2024 has moved so far this year? And how do you see '25 shaping up?
Jonathan Pong
executiveSure. Linda, taking a look at the earnings release, through the first 9 months of this year, bad debt expense came to roughly $50 million. That works out to about 40 basis points of rental revenue. If you strip out that single C-store operator we mentioned before, you're actually down to under 20 basis points, or 18 basis points; we've said in the past that absent the pandemic, we've typically landed near 25 basis points of credit loss in a typical year measured against revenue. So sitting at 18 excluding that onetime unusual event, we see that as fairly telling of a portfolio that's quite constructive and healthy; and I think we — as Sumit mentioned before, credit loss stood at 4.2%. There isn't much at all that we're truly tracking that's meaningful. No tenants with 1-plus percent exposure appear there; our sense is that those on the watch list have been tracked by us for a good while. And in certain instances, we have strong visibility into cash flow coverage for these assets. So we'll cover all the assumptions we're building in for 2025 this February when guidance comes out.
Linda Tsai
analystAlso, regarding that C-store write-down we took this quarter, how much could it affect AFFO and earnings? And what recapture rate do you expect?
Jonathan Pong
executiveFor this single C-store operator, the figure is roughly $1 million each month, to put it my way. Everything there has already been factored in. Our guidance includes all of it. We'll find out how recovery trends; still, as mentioned before, we believe these assets may draw considerable interest. So the standard answer we'd give is to check our past precedents, where we've managed 84%, 85%, or recapture on any rent hit by a bankruptcy or credit event.
Ronald Kamdem
analystTwo fast questions, circling back to the fund. I believe you mentioned certain investments the fund would find appealing where the public equity side couldn't participate. My second question, then: are there any further distinctions when it comes to dividend policy across geographies — say, wherever the fund chooses to go? And in your view, is the investor putting money into the fund a totally separate investor base from the one that would consider the stock? Or do the two overlap somewhat?
Sumit Roy
executiveYes. Ron, we haven't actually performed any analysis on the investor profile, but what I said regarding how much larger this investable universe is — of potential investors seeking to put money into real estate via a fund structure — is the truly compelling part. Could it be that some of these funds have scope to invest in public securities while also holding a mandate for private direct investments? I'm certain that could be the situation; yet even those investors would acknowledge that the capital they can deploy into real estate directly through a fund structure is many times what they can put to work on the security side. So I can't offer you a more exact answer than that, but the overwhelming majority, in my view, will be investors lacking the ability to invest in public securities who nonetheless want to leverage our platform, collaborate with us, and put money into the product that we invest in. Beyond that, the strategy is the one I've already described. The fund business won't be undertaking anything new that we wouldn't do on balance sheet. Bear in mind that the aim is for us to be a huge co-investor in this fund; therefore our interests will be completely aligned regarding what we choose to pursue.
Ronald Kamdem
analystGreat. Then, for my second quick question, I just want an update on the data center initiatives, basically. Clearly, lots of data points have come out regarding demand ramping. How are you all seeing that vertical's pipeline develop?
Sumit Roy
executiveYes. Ronald, I won't discuss pipelines, but regarding the demand you mentioned, that's something we observe in this space. And we've been extremely fortunate to be talking with several operators in this area; we notice it based on what they show us concerning the pipeline they've built; we're attempting to design a value proposition that's persuasive for these operators. And regarding where this specific business might go for Realty Income moving forward, we're very optimistic. We believe we can serve as a solution that assists in satisfying some demand and capital requirements to carry out what amounts to a once in a cycle type scenario. And ultimately, we have capital allocators. And if we're able to deploy capital exposed to S&P 10, S&P 20 clients for 20 years, that's our core business. So we're excited, though it's too early to tell regarding how all of this will ultimately play out.
R.J. Milligan
analystR.J., regarding your follow-up on the funds and those transaction examples that could fit better there — glad that was useful — let me make this clear: should we anticipate the fund putting money into assets that don't always carry triple net leases, and as a result deliver stronger internal growth, or into more structured investments and development loans? I'm simply attempting to understand the composition, or is it going to be strictly triple net?
Sumit Roy
executiveSumit here — here's what I can tell you: view these investments through the lens of flow-through, with rental income passing down into NOI much like what we've already executed at the balance sheet date. Our intent isn't to launch operations in businesses running a 40% NOI margin; that isn't our business. So regarding data centers, we won't be out acquiring colocation facilities where flow-through looks quite different from hyperscale single-tenant 20-year leases — those might not be exactly triple net, yet flow-through remains extremely elevated, meaning it mirrors what a triple net asset ought to produce; that's truly the — that's what we'll be pursuing.
R.J. Milligan
analystAll right. Then two fast follow-ups, and I might have missed what you said earlier; but first, are you anticipating that the cost of equity will come in above or below Realty's?
Sumit Roy
executiveWhen we define cost of equity through our long-term return hurdles, it ought to be quite comparable, yet their emphasis sits on that long-term hurdle rate rather than on accretion from day one; and therein lies the major distinction, R.J. That is the reason I offered the illustrations I did, namely that over the long term the return profile looks quite comparable across both of these businesses. However, we, as a public entity, entirely public, at present are unable to satisfy our dual mandate of producing that first-year spread alongside the long-term hurdle rate. To pursue transactions in the public markets today, both of those must be satisfied. That is the basis on which we are valued, and we are extremely thankful for that; we recognize that is how — that is the game we must play. Still, there are assets we are forgoing, extremely high-quality assets capable of meeting the long-term hurdle, yet which will possibly begin from a far lower point. And that, in my view, is what we will manage to accomplish via this fund structure and boost our co-investment through the recurring asset management fee stream, which amounts essentially to monetizing the platform we possess for the gain of our public shareholders. That is how this will operate.
R.J. Milligan
analystAll right. Then a final question from me: is Realty Income going to put properties into the fund?
Sumit Roy
executiveWe'll have a seed portfolio, and that's what lets us talk with prospective investors. After that, though, the investments we go after will be new ones. That's our current thinking — apart from that first seed portfolio, all the rest will be fresh deals that we pursue.
Greg McGinniss
analystSumit, I'd like to build on what was just asked; you brought up Prologis, correct? That, I believe, is the origin of the contribution inquiry. But — might you instead see yourself putting more money into developments that you otherwise wouldn't have underwritten, which would then get contributed into the platform? Or would you rather do those developments inside the platform itself?
Sumit Roy
executiveGreg, that's a really good question, since whenever we take on development, there are specific accounting rules we must follow. And sometimes we can't capture the entire cash effect — the positive cash yield we're capable of producing on the dollars being invested in a development scenario — simply because of the lease accounting we're subject to, and that certainly won't be a blocking issue if it's done through the fund structure. So could we do more of those? Yes — within the fund, the answer is yes. But once more, it has to meet and exceed the overall return hurdles we'd need to clear; so many things become possible through this alternative source of financing, things we've done as a public entity, though only to a limited degree due to certain inherent constraints we face, whether in how we're able to report things, et cetera. So I do believe this will provide us with flexibility, and that's why I made the remark about widening the sandbox of transaction types we could go after by having this alternative source of capital at our disposal.
Greg McGinniss
analystSo, is there already a shortlist of initial investors you're thinking about, or talks you've started on that side?
Sumit Roy
executiveNothing like that is on our radar at this point. I believe I've mentioned this before — what the makeup of such an investor would be. That part we definitely have. Our advisers are helping us, and they've passed along the specifics involved. Still, as of now, no discussions have taken place.
Greg McGinniss
analystAlright. Then one last question directed at Jonathan. When it comes to that modest bump in the midpoint for the expense leakage guidance, is there any particular item you'd flag?
Jonathan Pong
executiveYeah, a handful of factors are behind it. Greg, to start with, certain deferred costs got pulled forward, while others rolled over from the prior year; we're simply attempting to stay ahead of spending and in some instances play catch-up. As a result, the load is somewhat heavier during this quarter. I'd add as well — or during this year, I'd add as well that we're absorbing certain carry costs tied to a handful of vacant assets, and those make up a portion of the rise we're seeing versus a year earlier when looking at it through a margin lens; and beyond that, I think when you set it against the 1.1% leakage we had a year ago, remember that in January we closed on a $9 billion portfolio, the Spirit portfolio. On a run rate basis, that one carried somewhat greater leakage too. So I'd genuinely chalk it up to those elements as the reason behind the modest rise, moving from 1.1% to a midpoint now of 1.35%.
Wes Golladay
analystI'd like to ask about the development pipeline. At what point do you anticipate the nonretail portion getting leased? Are you currently slowing down leasing activity on it?
Sumit Roy
executiveThanks, Wes — that's a solid question. The reality is this represents a quite modest share of the total development. In that ZIP code, I believe it's roughly 15%, give or take. And although the volume we've earmarked for this specific kind of project is what it is, we truly don't deploy capital until we have clarity regarding leases being signed. So our confidence level is high. Our partner is Panattoni, one of the top developers out there, and we're quite sure that a number of these will be leased in the near term. Also remember, we won't commit the large capital outlay absent visibility into prospective tenants who could come in and assume those leases.
Wes Golladay
analystPerhaps a brief additional question about that, because it leans more toward the speculative side. Will you be able to capture somewhat more incremental yield?
Sumit Roy
executiveYes, without a doubt. In fact, when we've been in scenarios with 2 buildings, 1 was leased while the other 1 was not. We hold expectations and our views on what the lease rates will come in at. And up to this point, more frequently than not, those lease rates — the lease rates we anticipated — have been exceeded by what ultimately takes place. So this keeps generating a considerable degree of confidence not just among our partners, but also in our team's capacity to underwrite these kinds of transactions.
Sumit Roy
executiveAppreciate everyone being here today. We're eager to talk with you again before long and to catch up with you at a conference within the next few weeks. Thanks, everyone.
Operator
operatorThanks. That brings us to the end of today's conference call. We appreciate everyone joining us for today's presentation. You're welcome to disconnect your lines now, and we hope you have a wonderful day.
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