ReFuels N.V. ($REFL)

Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome to ReFuels Q4 2026 results, representing the period January to March 2026. Today, I'm joined in Studio by CEO, Philip Fjeld; and online by CFO and Managing Director, Baden Gowrie-Smith. We will first have a presentation and afterwards a Q&A session, and you can submit written questions during the webcast as usual. So with that, I'll hand the word over to Philip.

Thank you very much, Alan, and good morning to everyone watching this live or for those of you watching it afterwards on catch-up. As Alan said, we're going to take you through our Q4 presentation today. Talk a bit about the year that -- or the financial year that has gone and also provide a bit of outlook as to what we think the current financial year that we're in will do. So as per usual, just going to remind you guys what we do. We are U.K. focused as of today with regards to our refueling stations. We currently have about 2,250 trucks, unique trucks going through our stations every day. We put bio-methane and we supply bio-methane into all of those trucks, generating greenhouse gas savings for our customers in the range of 85% to 90%. Not only do they save greenhouse gas emissions, but there is also a large cost saving to them. And in the last 5, 6 years, we've saved our north of GBP 55 million by them running on biomethane. And last but not least, this is not a -- no longer a niche application that is only used by a couple of fleets. We are now at around 180 unique customers. Once again, a bit of a reminder, as of the structure, ReFuels is the listed entity. And we have 4 sites who own 60% of CNG fuels, ReFuels owns 40% of CNG fields. It is the CNG fuels results we'll be talking about today because that is where the profitability, the growth is coming from, and at the end of the day, the value to ReFuels to shareholders. There are basically 2 verticals when it comes to revenues and profitability. It is RTFS, 1 of the largest biomethane sourcing entities in Europe. And then, we have CNG Fuels, which is the downstream part of the business, which has the stations in the U.K. and all of the 180 customers that I just mentioned. This is what a typical station looks like. This is our Warrington station. That's the M62. You can see there to the west is Liverpool, to the east of Manchester. If we were to zoom out from here, you would see lots of distribution centers, very, very large distribution centers. Within ranges of 0.5 mile from there, you'll be easily counting somewhere in the range of 500 to 1,000 trucks. So this 1 went live in 2019. Currently, dispenses about 8,000 tonnes of biomethane per year with additional growth to come over the coming years and currently refuels about 300 trucks a day. These are unmanned facilities and remotely monitored by us. We have engineers that come out and fix stuff if something breaks. But at the end of the day, these are very, very efficient ways of putting huge quantities of renewable energy into trucks. Then look at the highlights. The financial year just gone, we generated an EBITDA of GBP 14.2 million, pretty much flat bang in the guidance that we provided for the following -- for the previous quarter for our financial year. That is more than double compared to the previous financial year. So very pleased by the momentum and the growth that we're now seeing in our earnings. Well, talk a bit about it a bit later on, but the conflict currently going on in the Middle East is having some so far, at least positive ripple effects with regards to customer interest. We are guiding for this financial year that we're in an adjusted EBITDA guidance of GBP 16 million to GBP 20 million. Baden will provide a bit more clarity on that later on. But that is basically a function of continued growth and the fact that we have been sourcing biomethane and selling RTFCs at attractive margins. We announced about a month ago, I think it was, a comprehensive agreement with M&S, Marks & Spencers, for about 300-plus CNG trucks. That is also one of the reasons that we are also increasing the number of mobile refueling systems, so-called MRS that we have. Once again, I'll talk a bit about what the conflict and some of the impact that has on us in a couple of slides. And finally, we do get questions from shareholders, what are you going to do about the poor liquidity in the stock. We are working hard to resolve that, and we are optimistic that we will have that sorted sometime in the second half, and we are investigating an uplifting from Euronext growth up to the main list at Oslo Børs. Taking us into the operational review in a conflict in -- or the war in the Middle East started at the end of February. Even prior to that, there were attractive price spreads between CNG and diesel, CNG and HBO. HBO is 100% biodiesel. What's happened since then is that, that spread has increased even further. So not only do existing customers that have CNG trucks on the road save more money today than they did in early February, but also that is generating a lot of new interest from existing end customers and say, potentially new customers with regards to adding fleets in the future. If we then look at what does that mean for us? We have seen a quite significant uptick in initial contacts from fleets that are not customers as of today. When it comes to the demo vehicles that are out there, they're all fully booked, pretty much week in, week out. As of today, this depends a bit where in the country you are, but there's about a 9-month wait list if you want to demo 1 of the 6x2 trucks. If we then look at the conversion rate there, which is maybe an interesting metric, is that we are more optimistic if we can put it like that, that we will see a higher conversion rate of fleets trialing 6x2 vehicles than we have seen historically on 4x2 customers and 4x2 demos. We talk a lot about 6x2, 4x2 market for us today is about 10% or we make up about 10% of the overall size of that market in the U.K. We are very small in the 6x2 market, as you can see here, 0.1%. We have a lot of ongoing trials, orders are being placed. We -- of course, there is a lag here. It takes time, not just going to demo a vehicle and then go and buy it tomorrow. It needs to fit into your purchasing cycles and so on and so forth. But from what we are seeing today, the interest we're seeing on the 6x -- from the 6x2 market. We're very encouraged by the early adopters there and the trajectory of that market in the coming years. I mentioned the M&S agreement. That's an important agreement for us. And I think it's a good example of what we are likely to do whether we publicly announce them or not because, of course, you'll only be announcing agreements that also the counterparty is happy to announce. They have a large fleet. They have many distribution centers. It's not always that we will have 1 of our grid connected stations that is actually nearby 1 of their distribution centers, which is why we need to deploy our mobile refueling stations. This is an agreement for up to 4 of those being deployed over the coming years. There might be more in the future. And we're quite, say, optimistic, and fairly, I'd say, bullish about the growth we are going to see in the mobile refueling sector going forward. And that's important to mention because that is a solution that can be deployed much faster than actually building and bringing a grid connected station online. Today, we've got 8 out of the 10 largest supermarkets in the U.K. Our customers are working hard to make that a 10 out of 10, and give us a year or 1.5 years, we'll hopefully manage to get there. So what's in it for our customers. For those of you who follow us, you've probably heard us talk about the benefits of biomethane from a greenhouse gas emission standpoint. But more importantly, there are substantial financial savings here as well by moving from diesel over to running on bioCNG and running CNG trucks. And as important, and particularly in the current environment, where diesel prices have come up a lot, yes, CNG prices have also come up, but they've come up less than diesel. So that's spread, as you'll remember from a couple of slides ago, has increased significantly. That impacts the payback period, which again means that the additional CapEx you need to invest in a CNG truck gets paid back quicker. So this is an important part of the equation for a lot of our customers. They typically can't afford to go green and lose money. And now as well, we -- previously, there have been kind of 2 key considerations for our customers. It's been economics, and it's been sustainability, but now also security of supply. We've got customers who are genuinely concerned that there might be disruption to diesel supplies in the coming months. That is not going to be the case with gas, and it's not going to be the case of biomethane. That is a fuel that is not affected by geopolitics, and as such, has greater runway when it comes to security of supply and that we're also now starting to see filter through from our customers. If you then look at biomethane as a whole, and here we're talking about the EU, yes, we are a U.K.-based company, but we are a large buyer of biomethane in the EU. So for us, whether the U.K. is part of the EU or not formally, doesn't really matter. We are connected. We're all part of the same gas grid. If you then look -- sometimes people say, "Oh, biomethane can't play such a large part and can't play such a large role in the energy mix in the future". Well, that is just not correct. If you look at the feedstock potential out there to produce biomethane, we are roughly -- we could -- in Europe, we could roughly 10x production by 2050, there or thereabouts compared to where we are today. If you then look at the IEA's estimates, almost 50% of EU's gas demand could be met through biomethane. That's huge, right? Think of energy resilience, think of not relying on geopolitics if you can embrace or if you can secure 50% of your energy needs domestically or from neighboring countries, that is a big deal. If we then look at trucks, this is a bit of a truck educational slide. We've had some feedback in the past that it's a bit confusing, rigids, 4x2, 6x2. Hopefully, these visuals here will be clear. Our core markets are -- is the 4x2 and the 6x2 market. That's why we talk a lot about them. However, we are also seeing quite significant adoption in the rigid market. Two things to note here. One, delivery times from OEMs is quite short at the moment. If you go and order trucks today, yes, there's a summer break coming where factory shut for a month, et cetera, but you can comfortably get those trucks delivered in Q4 this year. That was not the case a couple of years ago when lead times were almost a year. The second thing worth noting here is we're starting to see the secondhand markets develop. A typical first owner of a truck might keep it for 5, 6, 7 years before it then goes into the secondhand market. Now, we've kind of reached critical mass with regards to vehicles coming to the end of their first year ownership -- sorry, first live ownership going into secondhand market. And we've been a bit unsure as to how quickly and how that market will function, but now we're starting to see encouraging signs from that. We have -- we announced earlier this week that Swindon, and construction will start there on Monday, that will take us up to 18 grid connected stations and station #19. We'll go in to build, hopefully, in July and/or August. We have a plan by 2028 to essentially double our theoretical refueling capacity with regards to trucks, not only through grid tractor stations, but also through MRSs, and we are well on developing that plan. Here is just to summarize the stations as of today. Livingston was last year. Megor isn't build. Lots of progress has been made there. That will open during the second half of this year. And then we've got Swindon, as I mentioned, and more importantly, Carlyle, a very important location that our customers have been basically crying out for years almost. So we're very pleased to announce that, that will be going into build also very soon. As you will see in the financials in a bit, a lot of our earnings do come from RTFCs, renewable transport fuel certificates. Having got time here to go into all of the market drivers there. As you will see, that price is volatile. We expect it will continue to be volatile going forward. But here, it's also important to note that it is possible here to sell certificates forward almost 2 years out in time, typically 18 months out in time, which we do. And because of that, that gives us very good visibility as for our earnings. And Baden, I'm sure, will explain that in a couple of slides. That's what gives us the confidence in the range of GBP 16 million to GBP 20 million adjusted EBITDA guidance for this financial year, and then, we'll, of course, update that guidance as we go through because we have the ability to sell these significant forward, and we did that a while back. And with that, I will hand over to Baden.

All right. Thank you very much, Philip. So now, I'll turn to the financial review. These next slides cover CNG Fuel's financial performance. I know Philip said that, but just to make it clear. As a reminder, refuels owns 40% of CNG fuels. And so the figures we're discussing here are the CNG fuels existing figures of pro formas consistent with the quarterlies. So for the full year 2026, CNG Fuels delivered GBP 14.2 million of EBITDA, which was right in the middle of our guided range of GBP 13 million to GBP 15 million and double the GBP 6.7 million we delivered in financial year 2025. Important to note, there are -- we still have our audits ongoing at the moment. There are still some noncash items being looked at and discussed with the auditors. And so any adjustments to those will come through and be seen in the annual accounts, which we released in August. Key drivers of performance increased bioCNG volumes, improved certificate margins, and of course, the ongoing scale benefits of our integrated station and RTFS platform. In Q4, specifically, certificate margins improved to 26% when compared with 22.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Internally, we also saw gross profit continue to improve through the year with Q4 representing a significant share of the full year gross profit, mainly driven by RTFC sales and margins. Q4 EBITDA was slightly lower than Q3, it's partially due to the year-end accrual timing. But, of course, the full year trend remained very positive. Looking forward, we expect to dispense biomethane volumes for the year to grow 15% to 20% for the financial year 2027. That's supported by existing station capacity adding more trucks onto the road and that driving high utilization across the entire network, which, of course, we're adding stations to which will continue to grow capacity. So that supports our full year FY 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of GBP 16 million to GBP 20 million, will only be adjusting to be clear for noncash accounting items. So those are essentially fair value remeasurements and share-based payments. Thank you for the next slide, please. So here yes, steady financial results here and for the year. Q4 revenue was GBP 42.2 million, so broadly stable with the GBP 42.4 million in the Q4 last year. Small reduction is largely due to lower gas prices, which, of course, are passed through to our customers and slightly lower RTFCs being sold in the comparable period, which is mostly again timing of certificate sales. Importantly, gross profit improved to GBP 10.2 million, up from GBP 8.7 million in Q4 2025. And that improvement was also -- was driven by the volume growth and higher RTFC margins we've been recognizing. For the full year, revenue increased to GBP 154.1 million compared to GBP 134.3 million in FY '25, while gross profit increased to GBP 33.3 million compared to GBP 23.6 million last year. And EBITDA, as we've said, up to GBP 14.2 million compared to GBP 6.7 million in the previous financial year. In Q4, EBITDA was -- the GBP 4.5 million of EBITDA was split approximately was split between about GBP 0.25 million positive from the CNG station business and GBP 4.25 million from RTFS. So we're very pleased to see the positive contribution of both revenue streams within the business. Next slide, please. Thank you. Thank you for that. So here, you can see the RTFC prices and sales over the last 8 quarters. What's really useful and interesting to see is how in comparison to the graph you saw a moment ago from Philip where you can see the RTFC prices being very volatile. You can see a fairly smooth increase in improvement over 8 quarters or at least a smooth trajectory over 8 quarters, which represents the way that we handle our forward sales and rarely phase any consistent exposure to the spot price market. The group generated GBP 63.4 million RTFCs compared with GBP 73 million from the same quarter last year, a reflection really of the timing of biomethane and RTFC sales, not at the underlying volumes, which, of course, have increased in the same period. Now, these RTFCs are sold at a volume weighted average price -- realized price of 25.8p per RTFC. The realized price was above the true market price in March of 19.1p because all RTFCs generated in the period were delivered against forward contracts within this new RTFO obligation year that we would have set in the prior year. It's an important part of our commercial strategy. We use forward sales to lock in healthy margins against corresponding biomethane purchases. And this gives the business much better visibility over the profitability across the obligation year. RTFCs prices were affected by the narrowing spread of biodiesel, the fossil diesel, with diesel prices being elevated through the Middle East tensions, Strait of Hormuz disruption. Spot prices did reduce towards the end of the quarter, but of course, as you've seen, our realized Q4 price was protected by these forward contracts. The 2026 obligation year, most RTFCs, where we expect to generate for later delivery, have prudently been sold forward at pre-wall prices around the 25%, 26% range, which provides us with a great margin visibility and also helps underpin the earnings guidance that we've been able to provide today. Broader market, then just, I guess, finally, is the broader market backdrop remains important as Philip drivers on the previous slide. But with SAF demand, tied by biofuel mandates and anti-dumping duties on the Chinese biodiesel, all contributing to a tighter European biofuel market over time. Next slide, please, Philip. So over here, you can see the quarter's cash flow development. It's a new addition to our quarterly releases I think it was last week only, we released the Q1, Q2, Q3 of this financial year cash flow by request of a number of parties. And of course, we can release the Q4 and our year-to-date. CNG fuels cash generated GBP 3 million of cash from operations in Q4, taking the full year operating cash generation to GBP 9.2 million. The main difference between EBITDA and the operating cash flow was led to working capital, particularly inventory held at the period end, which largely reflects RTFCs and the biomethane sourcing activities. Cash outflow from investing activities was GBP 2 million in Q4, primarily related to the construction of the station of Magal. And for the full year, investing cash flow was negative GBP 1.8 million with investment in the station network, partially offset by the cash acquired as part of the restructuring with CNG Fuels, which we did in April last year. Financing cash flow was negative GBP 1.2 million in the Q4. That reflects loan movements and shareholder loan payments, whilst full year financing cash flow was positive GBP 0.6 million. So overall, CNG fuels ended the period with GBP 10.7 million of cash, which is largely in line with the prior quarter. Next slide, please, Philip. And finally, this is our financial position for the end of financial year 2026. Total assets held GBP 240.8 million, including GBP 105 million of property, plant and equipment, which mainly reflects the operational bioCNG station network. It's really important to note that we're still doing valuation work. It's still being carried out in these figures. And once again, these will be confirmed for our annual accounts, had a big transaction obviously last year certainly to be carefully looked at. And so we'll see the final figures for those in August. Total equity was GBP 76.1 million, giving an equity ratio of 32%. The ruble had end of period cash, as we said previous -- on the previous slide of GBP 10.7 million. In October 2025, CNG Fuels secured GBP 25 million credit facility with Foresight Group to fund 3 new stations, facility carries a 9.5% interest rate as flexible repayment terms, and we are now drawn to GBP 5.9 million as of 31st of March this year against our Megal project. This facility is of supporting the existing stage of development. So we'll also fund the Swindon development and the Carlyle development. And just as a reminder, that will take our station network to about 13,500 HCV capacity, 460,000 tonnes of bioCNG a year. And with these stations, we target an IRR -- an unlevered IRR of about 25% to 30% across these developments for 15-year IRRs for these developments. That's it from me. Thank you. Philip.

Thank you, Baden. So I will summarize briefly, and then, we will take some questions. We keep showing this slide. It's not because we are unimaginative and can't come up with any better slides. It's because there are some, I think, important messages in this -- we think that we should be able to get to 8,000 trucks on the road by 2030. That will then give us there or thereabouts an EBITDA number of about GBP 100 million plus/minus, hopefully more. We feel that we are on track to meet that target. Now 2030, a lot of things can happen between now and then, we can overshoot, we can undershoot. But I think the key message from us is yes, that target is far away, but as of today, we don't see any reason why we can't hit that. Yes, to go from 2,250 trucks to 8,000 trucks do sound like a big jump. But once the 6x2 market really starts to develop here, yes, we should be able to get there. So as a reminder, we're feeling pretty good about the trajectory we're on. And then finally, if we then look at the here now and the current year we're in, as Baden said, we are -- we've mentioned and guided for a 15% to 20% growth in volume this year. We've locked in the vast majority of the RTFCs we will generate and sell. I think the M&S agreement is a very good example of how we can pull forward orders from customers by deploying mobile refueling stations. That is a segment that we would expect to grow quite significantly over the coming years. And finally, as Baden mentioned, adjusted EBITDA guidance, GBP 16 million to GBP 20 million as of today. And of course, we will update that quarterly as we go ahead. And with that, I will not go into the appendix. We will drop it there, maybe go back to this previous slide. And then, we will take some questions. Erlend, have we got to any question?

Thank you, Philip. We'll move into Q&A session. So we have a couple of questions and the first 1 on the diesel -- current diesel situation. so how do you see the current high diesel prices impacting the transport sector in general? Are you seeing any demand destruction or lower activity?

Good question. It's -- the way we read the situation today, we're 3 months into the -- basically the strait effectively being closed into the worst energy supply shock that the world's ever seen. So initially, that will have an effect on the majority of our customers that run diesel trucks, right? Diesel costs have gone up. Yes, they might be able to recoup some of those costs from their clients, customers, whatever. But initially, that's probably going to mean there's a bit of stress in the logistics sector. That said, we are seeing now some customers are pulling truck orders forward. meaning replacement or CNG orders they were planning on placing next year, they're pulling forward this year. Why? Because they are genuinely concerned about the security of supply of diesel and also because of the price spread. So I think, yes, while some of our customers are likely to be under some financial strain as of today here and now. The long -- the medium-term to longer-term picture for us looks quite positive with regards to increased adoption rates, both from existing and new customers.

Maybe as a follow-up to that. We have the question on how has the interest for long-term fixed price agreements developed after the war in Iran.

Very, very well the strong interest. So maybe a bit of recap there. I think it was October last year. Anyway, sometime during the autumn of last year, we announced that we've done our first significant long-term fixed price agreement with a large customer. It took us some time to structure that, took us some time to pay for it and make sure that it works them and worked for us. Now, we -- if I was to jump forward 6 months in time, I would expect we no longer just have 1 of those contracts. We have a lot of them. So yes, now we are almost getting weekly interest from customers and looking at long-term hedging. Now, why do I mention these agreements? Because, of course, that's great for our customers. If they can see visibility, if they can get visibility on a medium to low price of CNG because the curve comes out a lot in the next couple of -- down a lot in the next couple of years, then of course, that gives them confidence to go out and potentially order more CNG trucks earlier than they otherwise would have been in a volatile environment. So yes, a lot of interest given what's been happening in the energy markets in the last 2, 3 months.

We have a question on the mobile refueling stations. So it looks like the MRS is about 20% to 30% of your monthly volume now. And MNS now is ordering up to 4 new mobile stations. How do you see the growth trajectory of MRS? Can this be scaled even more?

To take the final point, yes, it can be scaled a lot very quickly. We've done a bit of work internally. We reckon we can build 3 of these constantly in parallel. So in theory, we could build 1 of these a month, month, every 6 weeks. So yes, we can scale it significantly, and we do expect it to scale significantly going forward. Because as I said, we've got 16 grid connected stations today, 2 more in build, Carlyle field takes it to 19. 19 is not a lot. There's still huge parts of the country we're not covering, and we will need to deploy a lot more MRSs in order for customers to be able to adopt. And that's why I've mentioned a couple of times, the M&S agreement is a great example of customers. And of course, quite a few of the new MRS agreements that we're going to do will maybe not get announced or at least they'll not be announced with a name to counter party. So yes, we're quite optimistic about that market, and we're already making plans to scale that deployment quite rapidly.

Good, and a question on the stock. So please elaborate on your plans to improve the poor liquidity in the stock.

Yes. So we get contacted quite a bit by investors saying it's a hard stock to invest in because it's almost impossible to buy a decent chunk of shares. It's almost impossible to sell a decent chunk of shares. Yes, we hear you. We are working on it. We are looking at uplifting in Oslo. It's not a very simple exercise to do. We have a structure where we have a Dutch topco in refuels is NV is Dutch. We're listed in Norway. We have operating businesses in the U.K., et cetera. So bear with us, we are taking this very seriously, but there are certain steps we need to go through. We need to have audited accounts, of course, we're working on those, et cetera. So this is very much on our radar to execute and to achieve greater liquidity for our shareholders in the second half of this year. And I'm a large shareholder myself, so is Baden. As I say, this is not something we take lightly. This is something that we are very focused on executing on and feel quite comfortable that we will get this done during the second half of this year.

Good. And as there are no further questions, I'll hand this over to Philip to close the call.

Thank you. And thank you for those of you tuning in. Exciting times ahead for us. There's never a dull moment in the world that we live in. Yes, got a lot of positive stuff happening at this point in time. So yes, looking forward to seeing you again in -- at the end of August and hopefully have some other updates in the meanwhile. Thank you so much.